QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (2 Viewers)

[Dave Stauff]

Sounds like Stephen A. is jockeying to become Lamar's agent . . . I'd tag him, non-exclusive, and see what the market has to say about his value. Didn't Baltimore redesign their entire offense to embrace his skill set? - That's gotta factor into a decision by another organization to sell the farm for him . ..

 

[Chaka]

God I wish I could go full on Beetlejuice with Stephen Smith's loud mouth.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

This narrative that Baltimore is "cheap" is absurd.

I don't think I've seen that in this thread, but this caught my eye.
-------------------------------------------------------
Ravens Nation LIVE@LIVERavenNation

Over the last four years, the Ravens have spent the least amount of money on offense than any other team in the NFL.
Eff_Irsay
@EffIrsay
Averaged the 11th overall scoring offense over that span
2019 : #1 scoring O
2020: #7 scoring O
2021: #17 scoring O (w/o Stanley, JK, Gus, Hill, and LJ (for 5 games)).
2022: #19 scoring O ( w/o Bate, Duv, JK, Gus, Stanley and LJ for 5+ games each).
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If the Ravens move on from Lamar, they not only have to hit on a rookie or trade for a veteran QB they also have to start paying other offensive positions.
Many are only focusing in on Lamar wanting to be paid and are missing how difficult it is to find a suitable replacement before factoring in the 'additional' money and time that would need to be spent on other positions.
When trying to determine Jackson's value, everything has to be taken into account including the past four years when the Ravens spent LESS than every other NFL team on offense.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sounds like Stephen A. is jockeying to become Lamar's agent . . . I'd tag him, non-exclusive, and see what the market has to say about his value. Didn't Baltimore redesign their entire offense to embrace his skill set? - That's gotta factor into a decision by another organization to sell the farm for him . ..

And what happens if a team resets what QBs make annually and does something almost as crazy as Cleveland did with Watson?
Lamar Jackson wants more than Watson received and feels justified.
Forget what the majority of SP posters say about how crazy it is to pay Jackson whatever the dollar figure is, QBs like him don't become available very often.
I could see a team slide a $300M fully guaranteed deal in front of him, now what do the Ravens do?

 

[Birdie048]

This narrative that Baltimore is "cheap" is absurd.

I don't think I've seen that in this thread, but this caught my eye.
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If the Ravens move on from Lamar, they not only have to hit on a rookie or trade for a veteran QB they also have to start paying other offensive positions.
Many are only focusing in on Lamar wanting to be paid and are missing how difficult it is to find a suitable replacement before factoring in the 'additional' money and time that would need to be spent on other positions.
When trying to determine Jackson's value, everything has to be taken into account including the past four years when the Ravens spent LESS than every other NFL team on offense.

AGREED with Bold!
When somebody on my work team is looking to depart, I explain to leadership that the cost to replace them is higher than just the salary increase needed to retain them. The "loss of work efficiency", the time and effort to interview replacement, the time to properly train & certify them, then the time for them to get up to speed on the work tasks. The whole process could take 8-9 months of reduced work when the simple solution is a raise to avoid the whole incident.

Lamar is making Balt FO look at what his "replacement cost" could be by making his contract requirements. I have to assume Balt FO are smart enough to do this math and realize there is a balance somewhere to meet his demands and the team needs.

 

[Jakey]

Sounds like Stephen A. is jockeying to become Lamar's agent . . . I'd tag him, non-exclusive, and see what the market has to say about his value. Didn't Baltimore redesign their entire offense to embrace his skill set? - That's gotta factor into a decision by another organization to sell the farm for him . ..

And what happens if a team resets what QBs make annually and does something almost as crazy as Cleveland did with Watson?
Lamar Jackson wants more than Watson received and feels justified.
Forget what the majority of SP posters say about how crazy it is to pay Jackson whatever the dollar figure is, QBs like him don't become available very often.
I could see a team slide a $300M fully guaranteed deal in front of him, now what do the Ravens do?

Let him go, graciously accept the draft pick compensation, and get a good chuckle at the expense of another team.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Let him go, graciously accept the draft pick compensation, and get a good chuckle at the expense of another team.

Quincy Carrier
@Kwen_C
basically there is no way to cheat the draft, trying to accumulate more picks in a hope to increase your odds/volume of high level players has actually been shown to do the exact opposite. game is simple, scout well, coach well, win games is the only way to fix your drafting

...yes, teams with MORE picks actually were less successful at drafting in every metric then teams who had less then a average amount of picks in that time frame... and it actually makes a ton sense
...the teams that selected more players then average in that time frame drafted less off/def pro bowlers , and less players who got significant extensions as well as being less likely to select both
...i've been doing some interesting research on NFL draft success as it correlates to pick volume. the result ARE NOT what you think, a full video will be up on YouTube today, but here is a little taste.

 

[humpback]

This narrative that Baltimore is "cheap" is absurd.

I don't think I've seen that in this thread, but this caught my eye.
-------------------------------------------------------
Ravens Nation LIVE@LIVERavenNation

Over the last four years, the Ravens have spent the least amount of money on offense than any other team in the NFL.
Eff_Irsay
@EffIrsay
Averaged the 11th overall scoring offense over that span
2019 : #1 scoring O
2020: #7 scoring O
2021: #17 scoring O (w/o Stanley, JK, Gus, Hill, and LJ (for 5 games)).
2022: #19 scoring O ( w/o Bate, Duv, JK, Gus, Stanley and LJ for 5+ games each).
-------------
If the Ravens move on from Lamar, they not only have to hit on a rookie or trade for a veteran QB they also have to start paying other offensive positions.
Many are only focusing in on Lamar wanting to be paid and are missing how difficult it is to find a suitable replacement before factoring in the 'additional' money and time that would need to be spent on other positions.
When trying to determine Jackson's value, everything has to be taken into account including the past four years when the Ravens spent LESS than every other NFL team on offense.

Then you aren't paying attention. It's pretty much the entire argument from the "pay him his money" crowd.

The obvious reason for this is that they had a ridiculously affordable QB for all those years so saved a ton of money vs. most other teams there. It's also because they spent a lot of draft capital on offense, again benefiting from their lower cap hits vs. outbidding others to sign free agents.

Yes, everything has to be taken into account, including his missing 1/3rd of the last 2 seasons and his 1 career postseason win. Again, not trying to say he's a bad QB by any stretch, but when you want more money than anyone else in history, you need to back it up on the field.

 

[massraider]

Let him go, graciously accept the draft pick compensation, and get a good chuckle at the expense of another team

These are the kind of gutsy, bold moves people who can't get fired by the Ravens think everyone at the Ravens should be making.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sounds like Stephen A. is jockeying to become Lamar's agent . . . I'd tag him, non-exclusive, and see what the market has to say about his value. Didn't Baltimore redesign their entire offense to embrace his skill set? - That's gotta factor into a decision by another organization to sell the farm for him . ..

And what happens if a team resets what QBs make annually and does something almost as crazy as Cleveland did with Watson?
Lamar Jackson wants more than Watson received and feels justified.
Forget what the majority of SP posters say about how crazy it is to pay Jackson whatever the dollar figure is, QBs like him don't become available very often.
I could see a team slide a $300M fully guaranteed deal in front of him, now what do the Ravens do?

Let him go, graciously accept the draft pick compensation, and get a good chuckle at the expense of another team.

That sounds good for a quick reply but think about the Ravens without Lamar Jackson in 2023. We saw what it looked like in 2022.
People underselling Lamar Jackson as anything short of an NFL Superstar comes across misguided IMO.
What benefits the Ravens for not locking up Jackson when they should have and letting it reach this point?
Maybe you could unwrap it more, I don't follow the logic.

How are the Ravens better minus Lamar Jackson? The NFL salary cap is projected to be $256M next year and almost $290M in '25. It's all monopoly money so why haven't they paid him?
Ravens don't seem to invest a lot of money into their offense but they pay Defensive players all the time.
It's 2023 not 2003 or 2013, time to move with the times I would say.

 

[Jakey]

Sounds like Stephen A. is jockeying to become Lamar's agent . . . I'd tag him, non-exclusive, and see what the market has to say about his value. Didn't Baltimore redesign their entire offense to embrace his skill set? - That's gotta factor into a decision by another organization to sell the farm for him . ..

And what happens if a team resets what QBs make annually and does something almost as crazy as Cleveland did with Watson?
Lamar Jackson wants more than Watson received and feels justified.
Forget what the majority of SP posters say about how crazy it is to pay Jackson whatever the dollar figure is, QBs like him don't become available very often.
I could see a team slide a $300M fully guaranteed deal in front of him, now what do the Ravens do?

Let him go, graciously accept the draft pick compensation, and get a good chuckle at the expense of another team.

That sounds good for a quick reply but think about the Ravens without Lamar Jackson in 2023. We saw what it looked like in 2022.
People underselling Lamar Jackson as anything short of an NFL Superstar comes across misguided IMO.
What benefits the Ravens for not locking up Jackson when they should have and letting it reach this point?
Maybe you could unwrap it more, I don't follow the logic.

How are the Ravens better minus Lamar Jackson? The NFL salary cap is projected to be $256M next year and almost $290M in '25. It's all monopoly money so why haven't they paid him?
Ravens don't seem to invest a lot of money into their offense but they pay Defensive players all the time.
It's 2023 not 2003 or 2013, time to move with the times I would say.

100% think Lamar is a superstar. The next couple years, of course the Ravens take a step back.

But a huge longterm deal is going to bite them in the rear after a couple years. His play style will catch up with him sooner than later imo.

Short term? I want Lamar all day everyday. Beyond 2-3 years? Ehhhhhhhhh.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let him go, graciously accept the draft pick compensation, and get a good chuckle at the expense of another team

These are the kind of gutsy, bold moves people who can't get fired by the Ravens think everyone at the Ravens should be making.

It seems neither of us dispute this man's talent.
I'm not sure what the right answer is but early in the year they lost games because of their defense.
When the defense started playing better, unfortunately Jackson was injured.
I don't know if LJ was healthy enough to take the field end of year, the Ravens were surprised he didn't start games at the end of the year, why would they leak that?
If that's true, I would assume that Jackson feels like he wants to move on and that doesn't seem to be discussed much.
Without trashing the city of Baltimore, it's possible a guy that grew up in the Miami/Ft Lauderdale area might enjoy a city like Vegas as an example or NYC or Miami if he could swing it, even Tampa Bay might be close enough to the lifestyle he enjoyed as a youth. I'm not a psychologist even though I pretend to be one, but I feel there's enough smoke here to make a prediction that the Ravens might want Jackson more than he wants them and that would impact how this is going to end.

Any team linked to Jackson even if they have to trade thru a franchise tag, that would be exciting to most fan bases in those cities. I cringe thinking of him in a Jets uniform twice a year vs Miami but I think that might be his biggest suitor if he becomes available, also think Vegas would quickly emerge as a front runner.

 

[Jakey]

Let him go, graciously accept the draft pick compensation, and get a good chuckle at the expense of another team

These are the kind of gutsy, bold moves people who can't get fired by the Ravens think everyone at the Ravens should be making.

Or you could be like the Cardinals... the league could be getting that chuckle at your expense. And then you get fired by the Ravens.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

 

[Tau837]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

 

[titusbramble]

One question I've got in terms of the QB position, which may be better suited to a new thread but seems perfectly applicable here, is to be able to go into a deep dive as to how long a dual threat QB can remain a dual threat into their career, how much of the rushing threat is a contribution to what they bring to the offense, and what happens when that threat becomes an afterthought.

It's an interesting subject as we don't have a massive amount of data historically, before the super modern era we had the likes of Cunningham, Vick (who for the purposes of this discussion is a naturally weird case) and I'm struggling a bit outside of that - while I'm a massive fan of Lamar's all around game, thinking objectively, if in a couple of years his dual threat ability is limited to something like a Russell Wilson at a comparable age on the ground, what is that actually worth to a team, particularly in this situation given Lamar's level of passing play and the quality of supporting cast? Have we ever seen a QB who derives a decent chunk of his value from things other than passing remain fantasy and NFL relevant for an extended period into their 30s?

 

[massraider]

How would any of that be in his best interest?

Doesn't blow his knee out during preseason?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

One question I've got in terms of the QB position, which may be better suited to a new thread but seems perfectly applicable here, is to be able to go into a deep dive as to how long a dual threat QB can remain a dual threat into their career, how much of the rushing threat is a contribution to what they bring to the offense, and what happens when that threat becomes an afterthought.

It's an interesting subject as we don't have a massive amount of data historically, before the super modern era we had the likes of Cunningham, Vick (who for the purposes of this discussion is a naturally weird case) and I'm struggling a bit outside of that - while I'm a massive fan of Lamar's all around game, thinking objectively, if in a couple of years his dual threat ability is limited to something like a Russell Wilson at a comparable age on the ground, what is that actually worth to a team, particularly in this situation given Lamar's level of passing play and the quality of supporting cast? Have we ever seen a QB who derives a decent chunk of his value from things other than passing remain fantasy and NFL relevant for an extended period into their 30s?

Excellent question. Especially since FF players are getting extra points from duel threat QBs. But to your point, for how long?

 

[titusbramble]

I could probably have added Steve Young and Donovan McNabb to the older cases I mentioned, but I primarily remember them both as having most of their value as being pocket passers who can be dangerous on a bootleg/scramble and the occasional designed run, certainly not being used in the same way as QBs since, say, Cam Newton

 

[Tau837]

How would any of that be in his best interest?

Doesn't blow his knee out during preseason?

Right... because I mentioned him playing in preseason... because it is a given that he would blow his knee out in any playing time he would have if he doesn't resist signing the tag until the last possible second.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

Because Lamar Jackson does not want to play for the Baltimore Ravens any longer, his actions all point to that.
He's rebuffed all their offers, whatever those offers might be, he's passed when he could have at least another $50M in the Bank
Dak Prescott made almost $100M the year he signed his 4 yr/$160M deal, $30M+ on the franchise tag for Year 5 and another $66M as a 1 time signing bonus before they used the franchise tag again in Year 6.

JWB-this is not meant towards you directly but...
What kind of **** are people shoveling? They're fooling themselves or living in another time period, maybe just 10 years ago but times have changed.
You have exactly 36 months from the Day they(QBs mostly) are drafted, 51 potential regular season games or starts to evaluate if they should be extended and grow into a franchise QB.
Baltimore has had an additional 30 games on top of that to make an informed decision.

Watson $250M+ guaranteed
Murray $189m+ guaranteed
Dak Prescott-$100M rolled into his bank account in a 12 month span, look it up on Spotrac of you doubt it, I was a little surprised myself but it's true.

-Burrow, Hurts and Herbert all set for lucrative extensions. It's possible Dak Prescott is extended with only 2 years left on his deal, think about it...

I would love to have the Bill Belichick approach of short changing most of the guys at the skill positions on offense and paying the defense plus beefy OL, Baltimore is run similarly and both teams have had success until very recently. I think Baltimore has made a terrible error.

-LJ has to show leverage and blowing off the franchise tag until 3 days before the kickoff of the '23 season feels very much like something Jackson would consider doing. Nick Wright has spoken about it and made sure thru social media that everyone is aware Jackson can put the stop on having a prosperous '23 season and still get his money. He can also miss games due to light injuries as to not hurt his value in the open market. Some teams might not like it but let's not prop up the moral compass of all 32 NFL owners. they don't really play by the rules.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Favorite Lamar Jackson trade partner just cleared the way for deal
By releasing Marcus Mariota, the Atlanta Falcons have freed up an additional $12 million, giving them the second-most available cap space to pursue someone like Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens in his free agency of sorts.

The chances of Jackson getting a long-term deal in Baltimore feel very slim...
---------------------------------
Field Yates
@FieldYates

Releasing Marcus Mariota creates another $12M for the Falcons in cap space.
Atlanta is now armed with close to $65M in cap space in 2023, second most in the NFL.

 

[Chaka]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

How is it in the Ravens best interest to give the player who is literally, not figuratively, their only chance to make a Super Bowl a low ball offer?

We can complain about Lamar allegedly, but not actually proven, wanting a $250 mil guaranteed (or something like that) but we have similar reports that the Ravens came at him with a below market guarantee of $133 million.

We can talk about how a $250 million guarantee may, possibly hamstring the team and limit their chances to build a complete roster but you know what will almost guarantee them being irrelevant in their division for the next three seasons at least? Letting Lamar leave. Let's see how far they get paying Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr $35 mil/year. My guess is just far enough to guarantee they won't get a shot at a top rookie QB.

How is it in the best interest of the franchise?

 

[Chaka]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

To answer your question more directly it is in Lamar's best interest to show up at the last minute and simply not play. Let his contract toll and see if the Ravens want to pay him another $45 mil (plus however many %) to play that game again in 2024.

IOW it is in his best interest to to whatever it takes to get a fair market contract and not get injured before then.

There are ways to make that happen, it isn't a great look for him from a PR perspective but, so long as he isn't showing his #### to a bunch of strangers I think he'll be okay in the long run. Even then it apparently wouldn't matter.

 

[Tau837]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

How is it in the Ravens best interest to give the player who is literally, not figuratively, their only chance to make a Super Bowl a low ball offer?

We can complain about Lamar allegedly, but not actually proven, wanting a $250 mil guaranteed (or something like that) but we have similar reports that the Ravens came at him with a below market guarantee of $133 million.

We can talk about how a $250 million guarantee may, possibly hamstring the team and limit their chances to build a complete roster but you know what will almost guarantee them being irrelevant in their division for the next three seasons at least? Letting Lamar leave. Let's see how far they get paying Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr $35 mil/year. My guess is just far enough to guarantee they won't get a shot at a top rookie QB.

How is it in the best interest of the franchise?

It's hard to say until the outcome is known. It could simply be a negotiating tactic. Or it could be a true indication that the Ravens do not value Jackson at the price required to sign him long term. If the former, and negotiations work out, the so called lowball offer won't matter. If the latter, and Jackson is ultimately tagged and traded, we won't really be able to judge whether or not that was in the best interest of the franchise until we see what the Ravens do at QB, how they use what they get back in the trade and the cap space they save, and the results they get on the field over the next 3-5 years.

 

[Tau837]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

To answer your question more directly it is in Lamar's best interest to show up at the last minute and simply not play. Let his contract toll and see if the Ravens want to pay him another $45 mil (plus however many %) to play that game again in 2024.

IOW it is in his best interest to to whatever it takes to get a fair market contract and not get injured before then.

There are ways to make that happen, it isn't a great look for him from a PR perspective but, so long as he isn't showing his #### to a bunch of strangers I think he'll be okay in the long run. Even then it apparently wouldn't matter.

If he signs the tag, passes a physical (or refuses to take one), and refuses to play, his contract will not toll, because he will be suspended.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Lamar Jackson: ESPN analyst claims Baltimore Ravens have all the 'evidence' they need to pay QB
The Baltimore Ravens need to pay Lamar Jackson what they have to or risk not being a competitive force on the field, Dan Orlovsky has claimed.
...the Ravens have essentially had to rely on him to be their driving force on offense when the rest of the team were not up to scratch, and that should be enough to convince them to pay him what he wants:

Video: Dan Orlovsky discusses Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens: LINK to video

 

[Chaka]

It's hard to say until the outcome is known. It could simply be a negotiating tactic. Or it could be a true indication that the Ravens do not value Jackson at the price required to sign him long term. If the former, and negotiations work out, the so called lowball offer won't matter. If the latter, and Jackson is ultimately tagged and traded, we won't really be able to judge whether or not that was in the best interest of the franchise until we see what the Ravens do at QB, how they use what they get back in the trade and the cap space they save, and the results they get on the field over the next 3-5 years.

Fair enough but we do know it is not in Lamar's best interest to play for anything less than a fair market deal. Not his fault that he is plausibly a top 5 QB in the NFL (please let's not do lists. bottom line is he is in the conversation). Those guys get top of market deals every single season, why should he play for less?

Lamar is their best player, by a wide margin. I'm not sure if we agree on that but it is very clear IMO.

What is the path to sustained playoff success over the next 3-5 years without him? I could see Carr, Geno or Jimmy G having success there, but I could also easily see that as a path to draft picks in the late teens early twenties each of the next 3-5 seasons. And they come with $30+ million/year contracts as well. Even so those three probably won't be available by the time the Ravens and Lamar figure things out. Maybe the path is to blow it up and suck for Caleb in 2024.

To be clear I don't think the Ravens should offer $250 mil guaranteed, if that is what Lamar is holding out for (and we have no idea if he really is) but that first offer of $133 mil guaranteed, if that is what the Ravens offered (and we have no idea if they really did) is an insult.

 

[Chaka]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

To answer your question more directly it is in Lamar's best interest to show up at the last minute and simply not play. Let his contract toll and see if the Ravens want to pay him another $45 mil (plus however many %) to play that game again in 2024.

IOW it is in his best interest to to whatever it takes to get a fair market contract and not get injured before then.

There are ways to make that happen, it isn't a great look for him from a PR perspective but, so long as he isn't showing his #### to a bunch of strangers I think he'll be okay in the long run. Even then it apparently wouldn't matter.

If he signs the tag, passes a physical (or refuses to take one), and refuses to play, his contract will not toll, because he will be suspended.

As I said, there are ways around that. It's not nearly so cut-and-dried as that.

 

[Tau837]

Not his fault that he is plausibly a top 5 QB in the NFL (please let's not do lists. bottom line is he is in the conversation). Those guys get top of market deals every single season, why should he play for less?

IMO guys who are not plausibly in that discussion getting the money is the more compelling argument for Jackson. It is easily arguable that none of Wilson, Watson, or Murray are in that discussion, for example.

that first offer of $133 mil guaranteed, if that is what the Ravens offered (and we have no idea if they really did) is an insult.

It depends on a lot of details I don't know. For example, were there rolling guarantees not included in the $133M guaranteed figure? (Example, see Mahomes contract extension.) Was there a higher number guaranteed for injury? (Example, see Mahomes contract extension.) And what was the timing of the offer relative to the last several big QB contracts?

 

[humpback]

How is it in the Ravens best interest to give the player who is literally, not figuratively, their only chance to make a Super Bowl a low ball offer?

We can complain about Lamar allegedly, but not actually proven, wanting a $250 mil guaranteed (or something like that) but we have similar reports that the Ravens came at him with a below market guarantee of $133 million.

We can talk about how a $250 million guarantee may, possibly hamstring the team and limit their chances to build a complete roster but you know what will almost guarantee them being irrelevant in their division for the next three seasons at least? Letting Lamar leave. Let's see how far they get paying Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr $35 mil/year. My guess is just far enough to guarantee they won't get a shot at a top rookie QB.

How is it in the best interest of the franchise?

We have no idea what the offer(s) actually were or when they were offered so we can't characterize them as "low ball" or below market. He allegedly said himself that they offered $160-$180 mil guaranteed, but again, they're the only ones who really know the specifics.

So you're saying they'd wind up in about the same place as they are with him, with a much better chance at a shot at a top rookie QB with the draft picks they get back?

Fair enough but we do know it is not in Lamar's best interest to play for anything less than a fair market deal. Not his fault that he is plausibly a top 5 QB in the NFL (please let's not do lists. bottom line is he is in the conversation). Those guys get top of market deals every single season, why should he play for less?

Lamar is their best player, by a wide margin. I'm not sure if we agree on that but it is very clear IMO.

What is the path to sustained playoff success over the next 3-5 years without him? I could see Carr, Geno or Jimmy G having success there, but I could also easily see that as a path to draft picks in the late teens early twenties each of the next 3-5 seasons. And they come with $30+ million/year contracts as well. Even so those three probably won't be available by the time the Ravens and Lamar figure things out. Maybe the path is to blow it up and suck for Caleb in 2024.

To be clear I don't think the Ravens should offer $250 mil guaranteed, if that is what Lamar is holding out for (and we have no idea if he really is) but that first offer of $133 mil guaranteed, if that is what the Ravens offered (and we have no idea if they really did) is an insult.

Again, how do we know that? If he plays under the tag and has a lights out season that could easily be in his best interest. He'd make the ~$45 mil this year alone and probably end up with an additional $50-$100 mil in a deal next offseason. That's essentially what he tried to do this offseason, bet on himself, but it didn't pan out.

Also again, they haven't had sustained playoff success over the last 5 years with him at an insane discount, including when he was the MVP but got stomped in their first playoff game. Now have him go from taking up ~$2 mil in cap space like he did that season to ~$50 mil, and you think that's a recipe for sustained playoff success? I think a much better case could be made for say Carr or Geno, plus a player like say Hopkins to even out the cap hit, plus the several high draft picks they would receive from trading him.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

To answer your question more directly it is in Lamar's best interest to show up at the last minute and simply not play. Let his contract toll and see if the Ravens want to pay him another $45 mil (plus however many %) to play that game again in 2024.

IOW it is in his best interest to to whatever it takes to get a fair market contract and not get injured before then.

There are ways to make that happen, it isn't a great look for him from a PR perspective but, so long as he isn't showing his #### to a bunch of strangers I think he'll be okay in the long run. Even then it apparently wouldn't matter.

You said it better than i could have explained it.
I love reading JWB, long time poster here and I enjoy his viewpoint.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

To answer your question more directly it is in Lamar's best interest to show up at the last minute and simply not play. Let his contract toll and see if the Ravens want to pay him another $45 mil (plus however many %) to play that game again in 2024.

IOW it is in his best interest to to whatever it takes to get a fair market contract and not get injured before then.

There are ways to make that happen, it isn't a great look for him from a PR perspective but, so long as he isn't showing his #### to a bunch of strangers I think he'll be okay in the long run. Even then it apparently wouldn't matter.

If he signs the tag, passes a physical (or refuses to take one), and refuses to play, his contract will not toll, because he will be suspended.

He can legally wait until 3 days before the season starts and sign his franchise tag.
That alone should get the Ravens attention.
I understand it's a hard pill to swallow but then also add there's a new OC as Roman is no longer there.
What a shame it would be to not take part in the OC new system.
And this is not a holdout BTW, it's simply exercising his right under the rules

 

[Chaka]

We have no idea what the offer(s) actually were or when they were offered so we can't characterize them as "low ball" or below market. He allegedly said himself that they offered $160-$180 mil guaranteed, but again, they're the only ones who really know the specifics.

So you're saying they'd wind up in about the same place as they are with him, with a much better chance at a shot at a top rookie QB with the draft picks they get back?

I know we are not sure of the details of the Ravens proposal. I pointed that out multiple times. But we treat the possibility that Lamar is asking for $250 mil/guaranteed as a fact so I think it is fair that it goes both ways.

I don't think that's the case at all and I don't think you believe that either. If you want to make the assumption Lamar will get hurt as a fact then that is on you. Debating unpredictable potentialities is a fool's errand.

The fact is when Lamar is on the field the Ravens are 46-19 (70.7% winning) & 9-15 without him (37.5% winning) including the playoffs and not trying to factor in games where Lamar left early. So, no I don't think they would be in the same boat with a rookie. Top 10 rookie QBs are a 50% proposition and that's acting under the assumption they go that route and not the random FA QB.

Even if the rookie QB hits, you've lost two seasons at least before they are ready to make a meaningful impact. And that impact only happens is if you are lucky enough to land the next Burrow, Herbert or Lawrence (maybe) and not the next Mayfield, Darnold or Wilson.

 

[Chaka]

How is it in the Ravens best interest to give the player who is literally, not figuratively, their only chance to make a Super Bowl a low ball offer?

We can complain about Lamar allegedly, but not actually proven, wanting a $250 mil guaranteed (or something like that) but we have similar reports that the Ravens came at him with a below market guarantee of $133 million.

We can talk about how a $250 million guarantee may, possibly hamstring the team and limit their chances to build a complete roster but you know what will almost guarantee them being irrelevant in their division for the next three seasons at least? Letting Lamar leave. Let's see how far they get paying Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr $35 mil/year. My guess is just far enough to guarantee they won't get a shot at a top rookie QB.

How is it in the best interest of the franchise?

We have no idea what the offer(s) actually were or when they were offered so we can't characterize them as "low ball" or below market. He allegedly said himself that they offered $160-$180 mil guaranteed, but again, they're the only ones who really know the specifics.

So you're saying they'd wind up in about the same place as they are with him, with a much better chance at a shot at a top rookie QB with the draft picks they get back?

Fair enough but we do know it is not in Lamar's best interest to play for anything less than a fair market deal. Not his fault that he is plausibly a top 5 QB in the NFL (please let's not do lists. bottom line is he is in the conversation). Those guys get top of market deals every single season, why should he play for less?

Lamar is their best player, by a wide margin. I'm not sure if we agree on that but it is very clear IMO.

What is the path to sustained playoff success over the next 3-5 years without him? I could see Carr, Geno or Jimmy G having success there, but I could also easily see that as a path to draft picks in the late teens early twenties each of the next 3-5 seasons. And they come with $30+ million/year contracts as well. Even so those three probably won't be available by the time the Ravens and Lamar figure things out. Maybe the path is to blow it up and suck for Caleb in 2024.

To be clear I don't think the Ravens should offer $250 mil guaranteed, if that is what Lamar is holding out for (and we have no idea if he really is) but that first offer of $133 mil guaranteed, if that is what the Ravens offered (and we have no idea if they really did) is an insult.

Again, how do we know that? If he plays under the tag and has a lights out season that could easily be in his best interest. He'd make the ~$45 mil this year alone and probably end up with an additional $50-$100 mil in a deal next offseason. That's essentially what he tried to do this offseason, bet on himself, but it didn't pan out.

Also again, they haven't had sustained playoff success over the last 5 years with him at an insane discount, including when he was the MVP but got stomped in their first playoff game. Now have him go from taking up ~$2 mil in cap space like he did that season to ~$50 mil, and you think that's a recipe for sustained playoff success? I think a much better case could be made for say Carr or Geno, plus a player like say Hopkins to even out the cap hit, plus the several high draft picks they would receive from trading him.

We know that because it's worse to get $45 million in 2023 than $180 million (or whatever) in 2023.

Sustained playoff success is very difficult, the point is that with Lamar they have that chance. Dude is a clear difference maker with a 71% career win %.

 

[ChicoCat]

Lamar doesn't deserve to not be right in line with Hurts/Herbert and Burrow. He SHOULD have been in the last cluster of QBs. If he had an agent, he would have been signed by now.

 

[menobrown]

We can complain about Lamar allegedly, but not actually proven, wanting a $250 mil guaranteed (or something like that) but we have similar reports that the Ravens came at him with a below market guarantee of $133 million.

I'm sorry if this seems like I'm attacking you but I wish people would get their facts straight on the guarantees.

Joel Corry has wrote several articles detailing Lamar's contract talks and he has said reports are that Lamar was offered the second most guarantees ever at the time. What everyone is getting wrong, and I've tried to explain this before, is there is a major difference between guaranteed and FULLY guranteed.

Kyler Murray got $160m guaranteed, but of that only $103M was Fully Guaranteed.

Russell Wilson got $161m guaranteed, but of that only $124m was Fully Guaranteed.

What you and many others keep getting wrong is comparing that $133 Fullly Guaranteed amount they offered Lamar to the $160M and $161M that Kyler and Wilson were guaranteed, and not comping it to the $103/124M they were fully guaranteed.

Per Corry, and you can dispute his facts if you want, the $133m the offered Lamar was the Fully Guaranteed part of the contract but the total guarantees based on his reporting of what he had heard was higher then both Murray and Wilson got in total and on par with the percentage of their deal.

Again if you want to dispute Corry's reporting that's your decision, but I don't and think this notion they insulted Lamar by offering him less then guarantees then Kyler and Wilson is 100% false.

 

[Chaka]

We can complain about Lamar allegedly, but not actually proven, wanting a $250 mil guaranteed (or something like that) but we have similar reports that the Ravens came at him with a below market guarantee of $133 million.

I'm sorry if this seems like I'm attacking you but I wish people would get their facts straight on the guarantees.

Joel Corry has wrote several articles detailing Lamar's contract talks and he has said reports are that Lamar was offered the second most guarantees ever at the time. What everyone is getting wrong, and I've tried to explain this before, is there is a major difference between guaranteed and FULLY guranteed.

Kyler Murray got $160m guaranteed, but of that only $103M was Fully Guaranteed.

Russell Wilson got $161m guaranteed, but of that only $124m was Fully Guaranteed.

What you and many others keep getting wrong is comparing that $133 Fullly Guaranteed amount they offered Lamar to the $160M and $161M that Kyler and Wilson were guaranteed, and not comping it to the $103/124M they were fully guaranteed.

Per Corry, and you can dispute his facts if you want, the $133m the offered Lamar was the Fully Guaranteed part of the contract but the total guarantees based on his reporting of what he had heard was higher then both Murray and Wilson got in total and on par with the percentage of their deal.

Again if you want to dispute Corry's reporting that's your decision, but I don't and think this notion they insulted Lamar by offering him less then guarantees then Kyler and Wilson is 100% false.

Thank you and it doesn't feel like an attack at all, please continue.

Has there been an official source for the $133 million contract?

I don't have time to look into the numbers at the moment but the practical guarantees for both Wilson & Murray exceed $103 & $124 million. Something like $160-$190 million, no?

Do we have details on the practical guarantee that was offered to Lamar?

 

[menobrown]

Thank you and it doesn't feel like an attack at all, please continue.

Has there been an official source for the $133 million contract?

I don't have time to look into the numbers at the moment but the practical guarantees for both Wilson & Murray exceed $103 & $124 million. Something like $160-$190 million, no?

Do we have details on the practical guarantee that was offered to Lamar?

Thank you for not taking it like an attack.

That's negative on any official source. Getting one side to disclaim what they officially offered or turned down is never easy but on that note I know I read an article yesterday from a Ravens beat writer who thought the Ravens should actually disclose publicly what they offered Lamar. That beat writer felt all the narratives so far are being drove by Lamar and the Ravens don't want to anger Lamar but again that beat writer felt that if Baltimore disclosed what they offered public sentiment would change.

I got the numbers I referenced from Joel Corry, again not official, and from this article: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...-team-can-deal-with-soon-to-be-free-agent-qb/

And from that article here is the main part:

According to multiple reports, Jackson turned down a six-year contract (presumably a five-year extension offer) worth nearly $250 million with $133 million fully guaranteed before cutting off negotiations shortly before the regular season started. The offer had the league's second-highest average yearly salary surpassing Russell Wilson's $49 million per year. It also had the second-most money ever fully guaranteed in an NFL contract.

The exact amount of the total guarantee wasn't disclosed at the time. It was believed to have at least been on par with Wilson getting 67.3% of his deal guaranteed. This would put Jackson's total guarantee in the $170 million neighborhood at a minimum.

This part is not from the article. For those wondering what is the difference between fully guaranteed and guaranteed it's usually something like "on the 3rd day of the league year in 202X the player gets X amount guaranteed if he's still on the roster". That's considered a guarantee even though it's really not in the common sense we all tend to view a guarantee as since the player can be cut. Fully guaranteed on the other hand is money that essentially can't be touched no matter what(I say essentially as most contracts have player conduct clauses which can void guarantees). The player can leave the signing, get in an accident where they'd never be able to play again and they'd still get all of that fully guaranteed money. They could get lazy, out of shape and be the worst player ever at their position and no one can touch a penny of that fully guaranteed amount. To get guaranteed money that is not part of the full guarantees the player actually needs to continue playing at a high level.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think both sides have a legit case on this one. Lamar feels like he is worth more than Watson (and wants a ton of guaranteed money). The Ravens are concerned about guaranteeing that much money to a player that has been banged up and could either miss a ton of time (or become less effective over the years), therefore not getting much ROI on the contract. The issue isn't what guys like Mahomes / Rodgers / Allen are getting. It's the second and third level guys. Moving forward, everyone is going to want Top 5 money (even if their play doesn't warrant it).

 

[Faust]

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta said he "continues to be optimistic" about signing Lamar Jackson to a contract extension.​

Baltimore and their former MVP quarterback have been at odds surrounding a new contract for months. Both sides have leaked various details of the deals supposedly offered and turned down. A recent report from ESPN stated Jackson is looking for more than what Deshaun Watson got from the Browns. Watson was given a $230 million deal that was fully guaranteed. DeCosta also said the team will consider placing a tag on Lamar, though he and the front office have not decided on which tag they will use. It sounds like all options are currently on the table for Baltimore. For Ravens fans hoping to keep their quarterback in town, there's still plenty of hope, even if it will cost Baltimore a pretty penny.
SOURCE: Mike Garafolo on Twitter
Mar 1, 2023 at 1:42 PM ET

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Look: There's A New Betting Favorite To Land Lamar Jackson
According to Bookies' Adam Thompson, three teams have better odds than Baltimore of attaining the free-agent quarterback. The Atlanta Falcons lead the way at +300, a 25 percent implied probability.

They're followed by the Carolina Panthers (+450) and Las Vegas Raiders (+500) before the Ravena (+550)....
----------------------------
Go to the link for the full read.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thank you and it doesn't feel like an attack at all, please continue.

Has there been an official source for the $133 million contract?

I don't have time to look into the numbers at the moment but the practical guarantees for both Wilson & Murray exceed $103 & $124 million. Something like $160-$190 million, no?

Do we have details on the practical guarantee that was offered to Lamar?

Thank you for not taking it like an attack.

That's negative on any official source. Getting one side to disclaim what they officially offered or turned down is never easy but on that note I know I read an article yesterday from a Ravens beat writer who thought the Ravens should actually disclose publicly what they offered Lamar. That beat writer felt all the narratives so far are being drove by Lamar and the Ravens don't want to anger Lamar but again that beat writer felt that if Baltimore disclosed what they offered public sentiment would change.

I got the numbers I referenced from Joel Corry, again not official, and from this article: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...-team-can-deal-with-soon-to-be-free-agent-qb/

And from that article here is the main part:

According to multiple reports, Jackson turned down a six-year contract (presumably a five-year extension offer) worth nearly $250 million with $133 million fully guaranteed before cutting off negotiations shortly before the regular season started. The offer had the league's second-highest average yearly salary surpassing Russell Wilson's $49 million per year. It also had the second-most money ever fully guaranteed in an NFL contract.

The exact amount of the total guarantee wasn't disclosed at the time. It was believed to have at least been on par with Wilson getting 67.3% of his deal guaranteed. This would put Jackson's total guarantee in the $170 million neighborhood at a minimum.

This part is not from the article. For those wondering what is the difference between fully guaranteed and guaranteed it's usually something like "on the 3rd day of the league year in 202X the player gets X amount guaranteed if he's still on the roster". That's considered a guarantee even though it's really not in the common sense we all tend to view a guarantee as since the player can be cut. Fully guaranteed on the other hand is money that essentially can't be touched no matter what(I say essentially as most contracts have player conduct clauses which can void guarantees). The player can leave the signing, get in an accident where they'd never be able to play again and they'd still get all of that fully guaranteed money. They could get lazy, out of shape and be the worst player ever at their position and no one can touch a penny of that fully guaranteed amount. To get guaranteed money that is not part of the full guarantees the player actually needs to continue playing at a high level.

Thank You both for everything you guys bring in here.
Add me to the list of folks who would never view a contrarian POV as an attack.
We have many great posters, just saw this and wanted to recognize both of you.
Cheers!

 

[jabarony]

Franchise Tag should the Ravens press it
-LJ can sign it 3 days before the season starts without penalty

And if he does that, he screws himself and his teammates for the early part of the season. I really don't see why that would be in his best interest, especially given it will be a new offense. (Note: the fact that it is leverage he can use does not equate to being in his best interest.)

Making that choice would put himself at greater risk of poor performance and/or injury. Or would you envision that he would sit out the first 4-6 games to get himself up to speed? That would presumably hurt the team's record and hurt his chance to actually accomplish something in the 2023 postseason.

How would any of that be in his best interest?

How is it in the Ravens best interest to give the player who is literally, not figuratively, their only chance to make a Super Bowl a low ball offer?

We can complain about Lamar allegedly, but not actually proven, wanting a $250 mil guaranteed (or something like that) but we have similar reports that the Ravens came at him with a below market guarantee of $133 million.

We can talk about how a $250 million guarantee may, possibly hamstring the team and limit their chances to build a complete roster but you know what will almost guarantee them being irrelevant in their division for the next three seasons at least? Letting Lamar leave. Let's see how far they get paying Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr $35 mil/year. My guess is just far enough to guarantee they won't get a shot at a top rookie QB.

How is it in the best interest of the franchise?

Yes Jackson is literally the only QB who could get the Ravens to the Super Bowl, in 2023.

That's not necessarily the case for 24, 25...

Baltimore is a well managed franchise, I doubt they'd be irrelevant for years to come without him.

 

[humpback]

We have no idea what the offer(s) actually were or when they were offered so we can't characterize them as "low ball" or below market. He allegedly said himself that they offered $160-$180 mil guaranteed, but again, they're the only ones who really know the specifics.

So you're saying they'd wind up in about the same place as they are with him, with a much better chance at a shot at a top rookie QB with the draft picks they get back?

I know we are not sure of the details of the Ravens proposal. I pointed that out multiple times. But we treat the possibility that Lamar is asking for $250 mil/guaranteed as a fact so I think it is fair that it goes both ways.

I don't think that's the case at all and I don't think you believe that either. If you want to make the assumption Lamar will get hurt as a fact then that is on you. Debating unpredictable potentialities is a fool's errand.

The fact is when Lamar is on the field the Ravens are 46-19 (70.7% winning) & 9-15 without him (37.5% winning) including the playoffs and not trying to factor in games where Lamar left early. So, no I don't think they would be in the same boat with a rookie. Top 10 rookie QBs are a 50% proposition and that's acting under the assumption they go that route and not the random FA QB.

Even if the rookie QB hits, you've lost two seasons at least before they are ready to make a meaningful impact. And that impact only happens is if you are lucky enough to land the next Burrow, Herbert or Lawrence (maybe) and not the next Mayfield, Darnold or Wilson.

I don't think we treat his reported demands as "fact", I think we talk about what the Ravens should do if true. The larger point is that there are numbers in between the two that have reportedly been acknowledged by Lamar himself as being offered that are much greater than the $133 mil you're talking about.

Huh? I'm not making any assumptions, just pointing out the facts- the Ravens have won 1 playoff game in 5 years with Lamar and generally are drafting where you are saying they'd be drafting without him. I'm just saying that they'd have a better chance at landing a top rookie without him because they'd have more (presumably high) draft picks to do so.

You can tout their winning percentage with and without him all you want, pretty sure almost every team would have far less success without their starting QB. That's a disingenuous comparison though- this isn't simply removing him from their team, you have to account for everyone else they would have if he were to be traded. It's a risk for sure and may not work out, but let's not act like the rest of the team would be identical with or without him.

 

[humpback]

Fair enough but we do know it is not in Lamar's best interest to play for anything less than a fair market deal. Not his fault that he is plausibly a top 5 QB in the NFL (please let's not do lists. bottom line is he is in the conversation). Those guys get top of market deals every single season, why should he play for less?

Lamar is their best player, by a wide margin. I'm not sure if we agree on that but it is very clear IMO.

What is the path to sustained playoff success over the next 3-5 years without him? I could see Carr, Geno or Jimmy G having success there, but I could also easily see that as a path to draft picks in the late teens early twenties each of the next 3-5 seasons. And they come with $30+ million/year contracts as well. Even so those three probably won't be available by the time the Ravens and Lamar figure things out. Maybe the path is to blow it up and suck for Caleb in 2024.

To be clear I don't think the Ravens should offer $250 mil guaranteed, if that is what Lamar is holding out for (and we have no idea if he really is) but that first offer of $133 mil guaranteed, if that is what the Ravens offered (and we have no idea if they really did) is an insult.

Again, how do we know that? If he plays under the tag and has a lights out season that could easily be in his best interest. He'd make the ~$45 mil this year alone and probably end up with an additional $50-$100 mil in a deal next offseason. That's essentially what he tried to do this offseason, bet on himself, but it didn't pan out.

Also again, they haven't had sustained playoff success over the last 5 years with him at an insane discount, including when he was the MVP but got stomped in their first playoff game. Now have him go from taking up ~$2 mil in cap space like he did that season to ~$50 mil, and you think that's a recipe for sustained playoff success? I think a much better case could be made for say Carr or Geno, plus a player like say Hopkins to even out the cap hit, plus the several high draft picks they would receive from trading him.

We know that because it's worse to get $45 million in 2023 than $180 million (or whatever) in 2023.

Sustained playoff success is very difficult, the point is that with Lamar they have that chance. Dude is a clear difference maker with a 71% career win %.

You misunderstood. If he plays lights out under the tag in 2023, his contract next offseason (regardless of where) would likely be $50-$100 mil MORE than whatever he'd be able to sign now. So it easily could be better to get $45 mil in 2023 and $300+ mil in 2024 than to get $250 mil in 2023.

Agreed, sustained playoff success is very difficult, just pointing out the fact that they've yet to experience it in his 5 seasons so it's not like they'd be giving that up if he left. I'd argue that I can see a clearer path without him than if they keep him but have to give him an insane contract. My hope remains that they keep him on a contract something like Murray's, but that doesn't seem likely at all at this point.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

The only question for me is to tag him as exclusive or non-exclusive. Do you let someone else bring him a contract and you match it? If they wanted to give him the fully guaranteed contract without being the one credited for giving him that contract this would be one way. Or just do the exclusive tag to buy Eric more time to get a long-term deal done. I at one time was doing a non-exclusive tag but the more I think about it I think I would do the exclusive and buy more time. I think they should see what teams are willing to give in trade. I did hear (athletic podcast) the Ravens were willing to give 80% fully guaranteed. If true that seems like they are closer than I thought and yet maybe an ocean apart.

 

[Chaka]

Yes Jackson is literally the only QB who could get the Ravens to the Super Bowl, in 2023.

That's not necessarily the case for 24, 25...

Baltimore is a well managed franchise, I doubt they'd be irrelevant for years to come without him.

Two years at the minimum before they are relevant again. And that's only if they hit on their next QB.

 

[Chaka]

You misunderstood. If he plays lights out under the tag in 2023, his contract next offseason (regardless of where) would likely be $50-$100 mil MORE than whatever he'd be able to sign now. So it easily could be better to get $45 mil in 2023 and $300+ mil in 2024 than to get $250 mil in 2023.

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon.

 

[jabarony]

Yes Jackson is literally the only QB who could get the Ravens to the Super Bowl, in 2023.

That's not necessarily the case for 24, 25...

Baltimore is a well managed franchise, I doubt they'd be irrelevant for years to come without him.

Two years at the minimum before they are relevant again. And that's only if they hit on their next QB.

Some franchises aren't relevant for 10-15 years at a time. What's 2 years if they set themselves up to compete for the next 8? And they're at best a notch below KC/CIN/BUF for the next 2 years anyways.