QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (2 Viewers)

[H8fulHuck]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

The Ravens took advantage of his rookie contract and earned the hit of Lamar not playing in the last several games of 2022. Lamar was wise to ensure he would go into these negotiations healthy.

 

[Stoneworker]

From Pro Football Reference:

Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are the only players in NFL history to record at least 100 touchdown passes and fewer than 40 interceptions over their first five seasons

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

 

[humpback]

Why is it so difficult to admit that taking hits is bad for a QB

It was pointed out that these guys get hurt in the pocket not on the run. This isn't the same thing as denying getting hurt is bad.

Also, I don't have to believe mobile QBs have a shorter shelf life because someone on the internet says "running backs amirite???"

Then I pointed out how that's incorrect, or at the very least totally misleading. As I said, they get hurt from running, scrambling, getting sacked and knocked down regardless of if it's in the pocket or not.

Just ignore all that, instead keep reading all the meaningless crap on twitter and throwing out QB's that ran 1/3rd as much as Lamar as your "evidence".

 

[ghostguy123]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

If he was an UFA someone would offer him fully guaranteed to get it done IMO.
Having to give two firsts along with it makes it that much riskier, and I don't think it happens.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Ravens Offer Lamar 'Far More than $40 Million'; 'They Are Trying' Story by Adam Schultz • 3h ago

if he waits to sign long term until AFTER Burrow, Hurts, Herbert, he'll get a better deal

Joe Burrow extension expected to be largest in NFL history • 4h ago
...they’re already saying Burrow is going to get 55, Joe Burrow is going to get $55 million, he might get $60 (million) by the time this all ends up.”
...Even signing a deal for $55 million per season would set a new mark for quarterbacks. With Lamar Jackson seeking a new deal worth more than $50 million AAV and Los Angeles Chargers star Justin Herbert also eligible for an extension, the price tag could climb even further.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Why is it so difficult to admit that taking hits is bad for a QB

It was pointed out that these guys get hurt in the pocket not on the run. This isn't the same thing as denying getting hurt is bad.

Also, I don't have to believe mobile QBs have a shorter shelf life because someone on the internet says "running backs amirite???"

I hate that argument. Other than Lamar, most running quarterbacks still attempt more throws than runs so of course there will be more injuries during a passing play.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

If he was an UFA someone would offer him fully guaranteed to get it done IMO.
Having to give two firsts along with it makes it that much riskier, and I don't think it happens.

This is a very good point. It’s simply too much.

 

[Anarchy99]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

If he was an UFA someone would offer him fully guaranteed to get it done IMO.
Having to give two firsts along with it makes it that much riskier, and I don't think it happens.

Just curious why a franchise tagged Lamar deal would be any riskier than CLE trading for Watson or DEN trading for Wilson (or a tier below that . . . teams like SFO trading up for Lance (lots of picks but less money involved). The Browns had to give up more picks AND money to get Watson . . . who hadn't played in over a year and was known to be getting suspended.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

If he was an UFA someone would offer him fully guaranteed to get it done IMO.
Having to give two firsts along with it makes it that much riskier, and I don't think it happens.

Just curious why a franchise tagged Lamar deal would be any riskier than CLE trading for Watson or DEN trading for Wilson (or a tier below that . . . teams like SFO trading up for Lance (lots of picks but less money involved). The Browns had to give up more picks AND money to get Watson . . . who hadn't played in over a year and was known to be getting suspended.

The Browns are the Browns for a reason.

 

[ghostguy123]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

If he was an UFA someone would offer him fully guaranteed to get it done IMO.
Having to give two firsts along with it makes it that much riskier, and I don't think it happens.

Just curious why a franchise tagged Lamar deal would be any riskier than CLE trading for Watson or DEN trading for Wilson (or a tier below that . . . teams like SFO trading up for Lance (lots of picks but less money involved). The Browns had to give up more picks AND money to get Watson . . . who hadn't played in over a year and was known to be getting suspended.

It doesn't have to be riskier for it not to happen.

 

[Grahamburn]

Baltimore drafted Jackson, the GM, HC, the coaching staff, owner all know him well

But they seem very willing to let him walk. Very interesting situation.

Jackson will play somewhere next season be in in Baltimore or wherever, and he will make more $$$$ than he ever dreamed about.

Comparison is the thief of joy. Jackson is too concerned about Watsons contract to enjoy this ride of his own.

I don’t think they’re willing to let him walk. They’re using the leverage they have to show him his demands are outlandish and will ultimately hurt their chances to win.

 

[Grahamburn]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

The Ravens took advantage of his rookie contract and earned the hit of Lamar not playing in the last several games of 2022. Lamar was wise to ensure he would go into these negotiations healthy.

One playoff win during that window.

 

[daveR]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

If he was an UFA someone would offer him fully guaranteed to get it done IMO.
Having to give two firsts along with it makes it that much riskier, and I don't think it happens.

Just curious why a franchise tagged Lamar deal would be any riskier than CLE trading for Watson or DEN trading for Wilson (or a tier below that . . . teams like SFO trading up for Lance (lots of picks but less money involved). The Browns had to give up more picks AND money to get Watson . . . who hadn't played in over a year and was known to be getting suspended.

The Browns are the Browns for a reason.

What's the reason? Adding a pro bowl QB? Better to go with second-tier?

 

[daveR]

In my opinion (which is usually worth ignoring), I'd be leery of signing an oft-injured QB to a max (to use an NBA term) contract. You never see an old running QB. They don't last and it's a vital part of his success. I'd also give more credence to "MVP" if it were given by the head coaches.

 

[Chaka]

Lamar Jackson
@Lj_era8
Great CompanyView attachment 3516
Quote Tweet
Hard Rock Sportsbook
@HardRockSB
QBs in NFL history with a 96+ passer rating and 100+ pass TD in their first 61 starts:

LAMAR JACKSON
Patrick Mahomes
Dan Marino
Aaron Rodgers
Deshaun Watson

Lamar isn't a running QB. He's a great QB who can run.
------------------------
Mina Kimes
@minakimes
Fun fact: Last year, Lamar Jackson finished with a higher passer rating from inside the pocket than Cousins, Rodgers, and Brady.
Ryan Burns
@FtblSickness
With a beat-up OL and nonsense for weaponry. The dude is a serious problem. Please get him out of my division.

He is very underrated as a passer, that's for sure. He's essentially Josh Allen but everyone still clings to Allen's 69% passing season from three years ago as if that is who he is and has always been. Allen's a 63% passer who, runs ~8 times/game and gets the benefit of every doubt.

Lamar, 63% passer who runs ~9/game and...not so much.

LMAO Hes a athlete, not a quarterback. He will never win anything unless he has a team built like the Eagles last year.

Exhibit A of this entrenched mindset.

 

[Chaka]

To be fair I do believe Allen is a better QB but the difference is marginal. The biggest differentiator IMO is simply size. Allen is 6'5" and 237lbs while Lamar is 6'2" and 212lbs. I think that size advantage helps make Allen a slightly safer bet to remain healthy considering the physicality with which both play the position.

But I see zero reason why Allen is a safer bet than Lamar to continue being an effective QB once he starts to lose his mobility.

it all depends on how they mature as passers as the years pile up.

 

[Ilov80s]

To be fair I do believe Allen is a better QB but the difference is marginal. The biggest differentiator IMO is simply size. Allen is 6'5" and 237lbs while Lamar is 6'2" and 212lbs. I think that size advantage helps make Allen a slightly safer bet to remain healthy considering the physicality with which both play the position.

But I see zero reason why Allen is a safer bet than Lamar to continue being an effective QB once he starts to lose his mobility.

it all depends on how they mature as passers as the years pile up.

Allen's biggest advantage is his size. He's not particularly fast by overall NFL standards (4.75). We don't know Lamar's timed speed but he is almost surely a 90th percentile guy. Age will slow down every player but a slowed down Allen could become a rather lumbering guy who's mobility is only useful in a Big Ben kind of way- buying extra time. I think as long as Lamar is in the league, is going to be a super athlete. Even if he slows down and becomes a 4.55 guy, that is still starting NFL RB/WR speed and something defenses will always struggle to defend.

So while I agree Allen absolutely as the advantage in durability, Lamar has an advantage in athleticism and the chances he is able to maintain his rushing threat.

 

[Ilov80s]

Just curious why a franchise tagged Lamar deal would be any riskier than CLE trading for Watson or DEN trading for Wilson (or a tier below that . . . teams like SFO trading up for Lance (lots of picks but less money involved). The Browns had to give up more picks AND money to get Watson . . . who hadn't played in over a year and was known to be getting suspended.

I think teams around the league are looking at those deals and cringing.

 

[Ilov80s]

In my opinion (which is usually worth ignoring), I'd be leery of signing an oft-injured QB to a max (to use an NBA term) contract. You never see an old running QB. They don't last and it's a vital part of his success. I'd also give more credence to "MVP" if it were given by the head coaches.

I don't think we have seen many players like Lamar. The emergence of the true rushing QB is pretty new. Also, there are 2 different types of rushing QBs. There's the Cam, Allen power runners and then there are the Vick, Lamar speedsters. At 31, Vick was still rushing for 45 yards a game. I agree that Lamar probably won't play in his mid to late 30s like Rodgers, Stafford, etc. However, he is 26 right now so I wouldn't worry about a 4-5 year deal. That should still be his prime.

As for MVP, I don't think it matters who gives it out in this case. Lamar had a historic season. If you want to argue Mahomes or Brady were better, maybe but Lamar clearly had an MVP worthy season. He led the league in passing TDs, QBR, and yards per carry. He was 6th in rushing yards, led the highest scoring offense in the league to a 14 win season. That is objectively an MVP level season.

 

[Ilov80s]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

He also ran for 367 yards across those 4 games. It's part of his game that has to be accounted for. I don't think there is any reason to think he inherently can't win in the playoffs. Peyton Manning really struggled in his 3 years in the playoffs (1 TD, 48% completion rate and 0 wins) and there was some talk that he was a regular season stat padder.

 

[Chaka]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

He also ran for 367 yards across those 4 games. It's part of his game that has to be accounted for. I don't think there is any reason to think he inherently can't win in the playoffs. Peyton Manning really struggled in his 3 years in the playoffs (1 TD, 48% completion rate and 0 wins) and there was some talk that he was a regular season stat padder.

Yeah, I don't put too much into that playoff record.

You have to get to the playoffs to even have the chance to lose in the playoffs. And Lamar makes the Ravens a perennial playoff caliber team.

 

[dutch]

An unknown, untested rookie qb was worth 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a first round starting wr to a qb needy NFL team.

A 26 year old MVP caliber qb with a great win percentage and an ability to take over games is worth how much now??

 

[Stoneworker]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

He also ran for 367 yards across those 4 games. It's part of his game that has to be accounted for. I don't think there is any reason to think he inherently can't win in the playoffs. Peyton Manning really struggled in his 3 years in the playoffs (1 TD, 48% completion rate and 0 wins) and there was some talk that he was a regular season stat padder.

Yeah, I don't put too much into that playoff record.

You have to get to the playoffs to even have the chance to lose in the playoffs. And Lamar makes the Ravens a perennial playoff caliber team.

Yes. A quarterback needs to stay healthy long enough to get to the playoffs to matter. Or play well once he gets there. Neither of which Lamar has accomplished in five years.

 

[Tau837]

I see zero reason why Allen is a safer bet than Lamar to continue being an effective QB once he starts to lose his mobility.

To the extent that metrics can help with this, consider these for 2022:

• From PFR:
  • Passer rating: Allen 96.6 (#8), Jackson 91.1 (#15T)
  • QBR: Allen 71.4 (#2), Jackson 59.0 (#9)
  • Completion Percentage: Allen 63.3% (#22), Jackson 62.3% (#24)
  • TD Percentage: Allen 6.2% (#3), Jackson 5.2% (#9)
  • Interception Percentage: Jackson 2.1% (#15), Allen 2.5% (#24)
  • Yards Per Attempt (YPA): Allen 7.6 (#8), Jackson 6.9 (#21)
  • Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (NY/A): Allen 6.87 (#6), Jackson 6.05 (#19)
  • Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A): Allen 6.99 (#6), Jackson 6.12 (#15)
  • Completed Air Yards per Completion (CAY/Cmp): Allen 7.5 (#2), Jackson 6.3 (#13)
  • Completed Air Yards per Pass Attempt (CAY/PA): Allen 4.7 (#2), Jackson 3.9 (#14)
  • On Target Percentage: Jackson 75.4% (#19), Allen 73.7% (#23)
  • Bad Throw Percentage: Allen 16.6% (#20), Jackson 18.1% (#24)
  • Sack percentage: Allen 5.5% (#10), Jackson 7.4% (#21)
• From PFF:
  • Passing grade, minimum 200 dropbacks: Allen 85.8 (#3), Jackson 72.3 (#16)
  • Deep passing grade, minimum 20 deep pass attempts (20+ yards beyond LOS): Allen 92.7 (#6), Jackson 62.7 (#31)
  • Passing grade under pressure, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 72.9 (#2), Jackson 44.0 (#30)
  • Passing grade kept clean, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 87.6 (#7), Jackson 85.3 (#11)
  • Percentage of Pressures Charged to QB, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 18.8% (#28), Jackson 33.9% (#36T)
  • Big Time Throw Percentage: Allen 7.6% (#1), Jackson 5.0% (#4T)
  • Turnover Worthy Play Percentage: Jackson 2.3% (#5T), Allen 4.2% (#29T)
  • Adjusted Completion Percentage: Jackson 74.6% (#20T), Allen 74,2% (#23T)
• From Football Outsiders:
  • Passing Value Over Average (VOA), minimum 200 pass attempts: Allen 15.7% (#5), Jackson 3.8% (#16)
  • Passing Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), minimum 200 pass attempts: Allen 15.9% (#5), Jackson 5.5% (#14)
• From rbsdm:
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)/play: Allen 0.220 (#4), Jackson 0.109 (#12)
  • Adjusted EPA/play: Allen 0.231 (#4), Jackson 0.117 (#12)
  • Success rate: Allen 53.0% (#2), Jackson 49.3% (#14)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE): Allen 0.9% (#11), Jackson -0.6% (#22)
• From Next Gen Stats:
  • Completion Percentage Above Expectation: Allen -0.9% (#20), Jackson -2.4% (#29)

That is 28 metrics, though there is plenty of overlap between the metrics from different sources, so not truly measuring 28 different things. All are rate/efficiency metrics to avoid the issue that Allen played more games. Jackson was ahead of Allen in just 4 of them.

There are plenty of differences that make it challenging to compare two players like Allen and Jackson, since their coaching, schedule, teammates, weather/field conditions, etc. are different. But using these metrics as a proxy, Allen appears to be a much better passer than Jackson based on the 2022 season, which is the most recent evidence we have.

 

[ghostguy123]

An unknown, untested rookie qb was worth 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a first round starting wr to a qb needy NFL team.

A 26 year old MVP caliber qb with a great win percentage and an ability to take over games is worth how much now??

His contract

 

[Ilov80s]

I am not really worried about such a small sample size of 4 games.

 

[dutch]

An unknown, untested rookie qb was worth 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a first round starting wr to a qb needy NFL team.

A 26 year old MVP caliber qb with a great win percentage and an ability to take over games is worth how much now??

His contract

as opposed to burning draft capital on an unknown which may destroy your franchise even quicker than Jackson’s cap hits.

 

[Ilov80s]

I see zero reason why Allen is a safer bet than Lamar to continue being an effective QB once he starts to lose his mobility.

To the extent that advanced metrics can help with this, consider these for 2022:

• From PFR:
  • Passer rating: Allen 96.6 (#8), Jackson 91.1 (#15T)
  • QBR: Allen 71.4 (#2), Jackson 59.0 (#9)
  • Completion Percentage: Allen 63.3% (#22), Jackson 62.3% (#24)
  • TD Percentage: Allen 6.2% (#3), Jackson 5.2% (#9)
  • Interception Percentage: Jackson 2.1% (#15), Allen 2.5% (#24)
  • Yards Per Attempt (YPA): Allen 7.6 (#8), Jackson 6.9 (#21)
  • Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (NY/A): Allen 6.87 (#6), Jackson 6.05 (#19)
  • Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A): Allen 6.99 (#6), Jackson 6.12 (#15)
  • Completed Air Yards per Completion (CAY/Cmp): Allen 7.5 (#2), Jackson 6.3 (#13)
  • Completed Air Yards per Pass Attempt (CAY/PA): Allen 4.7 (#2), Jackson 3.9 (#14)
  • On Target Percentage: Jackson 75.4% (#19), Allen 73.7% (#23)
  • Bad Throw Percentage: Allen 16.6% (#20), Jackson 18.1% (#24)
  • Sack percentage: Allen 5.5% (#10), Jackson 7.4% (#21)
• From PFF:
  • Passing grade, minimum 200 dropbacks: Allen 85.8 (#3), Jackson 72.3 (#16)
  • Deep passing grade, minimum 20 deep pass attempts (20+ yards beyond LOS): Allen 92.7 (#6), Jackson 62.7 (#31)
  • Passing grade under pressure, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 72.9 (#2), Jackson 44.0 (#30)
  • Passing grade kept clean, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 87.6 (#7), Jackson 85.3 (#11)
  • Percentage of Pressures Charged to QB, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 18.8% (#28), Jackson 33.9% (#36T)
  • Big Time Throw Percentage: Allen 7.6% (#1), Jackson 5.0% (#4T)
  • Turnover Worthy Play Percentage: Jackson 2.3% (#5T), Allen 4.2% (#29T)
  • Adjusted Completion Percentage: Jackson 74.6% (#20T), Allen 74,2% (#23T)
• From Football Outsiders:
  • Passing Value Over Average (VOA), minimum 200 pass attempts: Allen 15.7% (#5), Jackson 3.8% (#16)
  • Passing Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), minimum 200 pass attempts: Allen 15.9% (#5), Jackson 5.5% (#14)
• From rbsdm:
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)/play: Allen 0.220 (#4), Jackson 0.109 (#12)
  • Adjusted EPA/play: Allen 0.231 (#4), Jackson 0.117 (#12)
  • Success rate: Allen 53.0% (#2), Jackson 49.3% (#14)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE): Allen 0.9% (#11), Jackson -0.6% (#22)
• From Next Gen Stats:
  • Completion Percentage Above Expectation: Allen -0.9% (#20), Jackson -2.4% (#29)

That is 28 metrics, though there is plenty of overlap between the metrics from different sources. All are rate/efficiency metrics to avoid the issue that Allen played more games. Jackson was ahead of Allen in just 4 of them.

There are plenty of differences that make it challenging to compare two players like Allen and Jackson, since their coaching, schedule, teammates, weather/field conditions, etc. are different. But using these metrics as a proxy, Allen appears to be a much better passer than Jackson based on the 2022 season.

Allen definitely was better this year, Lamar didn't have his best season. The Ravens didn't do him any favors with their WR and RB groups though. It was among the worst in the league.

 

[ghostguy123]

An unknown, untested rookie qb was worth 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a first round starting wr to a qb needy NFL team.

A 26 year old MVP caliber qb with a great win percentage and an ability to take over games is worth how much now??

His contract

as opposed to burning draft capital on an unknown which may destroy your franchise even quicker than Jackson’s cap hits.

Actually, if they "miss", it screws them for 2-3 years.
While a 5 year fully guaranteed contract that doesn't work great screws them for 5 years.
So, instead of picks, if they choose, they have 40+ extra million per year to spend.
Also, and maybe the most obvious, there's not anything close to a guarantee they get Ljax even if they tried.

 

[dutch]

Someday you Have to pay for a market level qb and the longer you wait the more it costs. I believe in Jackson s ability to help a franchise win a championship more than some unknown rookie.

 

[dutch]

My risk assessment analysis is go with Jackson because you know what you’re getting and what you’re getting someone who can help you in now.

 

[ghostguy123]

Someday you Have to pay for a market level qb and the longer you wait the more it costs. I believe in Jackson s ability to help a franchise win a championship more than some unknown rookie.

Its not like they had option A and option B

 

[dutch]

Someday you Have to pay for a market level qb and the longer you wait the more it costs. I believe in Jackson s ability to help a franchise win a championship more than some unknown rookie.

Its not like they had option A and option B

Oh yeah, I’m just comparing the level of interest for Jackson as rumored so far and find it inconceivable there is not a viable partner for his services based on the bears a aquistion. To me Jackson is worth the similar draft compensation And the big money. He can help a team with assists win now.

 

[ghostguy123]

Someday you Have to pay for a market level qb and the longer you wait the more it costs. I believe in Jackson s ability to help a franchise win a championship more than some unknown rookie.

Its not like they had option A and option B

Oh yeah, I’m just comparing the level of interest for Jackson as rumored so far and find it inconceivable there is not a viable partner for his services based on the bears a aquistion. To me Jackson is worth the similar draft compensation And the big money. He can help a team with assists win now.

And maybe we will see what happens when teams are legally allowed to show interest

 

[LawFitz]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

 

[menobrown]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Well we know Carolina was not putting out a smokescreen about lack of interest in Lamar.

Indy becomes intriguing. As far as I recall they were NOT one of the teams that rushed to get word out regarding not wanting to get involved and they might be starting at a situation 3 QB's are off the board if they sit tight.

 

[travdogg]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Well we know Carolina was not putting out a smokescreen about lack of interest in Lamar.

Indy becomes intriguing. As far as I recall they were NOT one of the teams that rushed to get word out regarding not wanting to get involved and they might be starting at a situation 3 QB's are off the board if they sit tight.

Well cap space is not a problem. Guessing if they didn’t have to give up 1.04, they would be very interested in this. Not sure they can wait until after the draft.

 

[massraider]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Cap savings is not enough of a reason to trade MORE for an unproven commodity. Much more, than a 26 year old good QB.

 

[LawFitz]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Rookie QBs also aren't guaranteed to be elite performers. Far, far from it, actually - and their contracts reflect that. This haul for a rookie makes two 1st for Lamar Jackson look like a pittance.

 

[dutch]

2 firsts and 250 million over five years for Jackson or 2 firsts, 2 seconds and one of your starting wr for mr unknown?

 

[travdogg]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Cap savings is not enough of a reason to trade MORE for an unproven commodity. Much more, than a 26 year old good QB.

It isn't just cap savings. They literally couldn't afford Jackson. They were only a few million under the cap before trading Moore.

ETA: Without doing major cap restructuring (like Brees era Saints level) the only teams likely looking for a QB that can afford Lamar are the Raiders, Falcons, and Patriots.

 

[Chaka]

I see zero reason why Allen is a safer bet than Lamar to continue being an effective QB once he starts to lose his mobility.

To the extent that metrics can help with this, consider these for 2022:

• From PFR:
  • Passer rating: Allen 96.6 (#8), Jackson 91.1 (#15T)
  • QBR: Allen 71.4 (#2), Jackson 59.0 (#9)
  • Completion Percentage: Allen 63.3% (#22), Jackson 62.3% (#24)
  • TD Percentage: Allen 6.2% (#3), Jackson 5.2% (#9)
  • Interception Percentage: Jackson 2.1% (#15), Allen 2.5% (#24)
  • Yards Per Attempt (YPA): Allen 7.6 (#8), Jackson 6.9 (#21)
  • Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (NY/A): Allen 6.87 (#6), Jackson 6.05 (#19)
  • Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A): Allen 6.99 (#6), Jackson 6.12 (#15)
  • Completed Air Yards per Completion (CAY/Cmp): Allen 7.5 (#2), Jackson 6.3 (#13)
  • Completed Air Yards per Pass Attempt (CAY/PA): Allen 4.7 (#2), Jackson 3.9 (#14)
  • On Target Percentage: Jackson 75.4% (#19), Allen 73.7% (#23)
  • Bad Throw Percentage: Allen 16.6% (#20), Jackson 18.1% (#24)
  • Sack percentage: Allen 5.5% (#10), Jackson 7.4% (#21)
• From PFF:
  • Passing grade, minimum 200 dropbacks: Allen 85.8 (#3), Jackson 72.3 (#16)
  • Deep passing grade, minimum 20 deep pass attempts (20+ yards beyond LOS): Allen 92.7 (#6), Jackson 62.7 (#31)
  • Passing grade under pressure, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 72.9 (#2), Jackson 44.0 (#30)
  • Passing grade kept clean, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 87.6 (#7), Jackson 85.3 (#11)
  • Percentage of Pressures Charged to QB, minimum 50 dropbacks: Allen 18.8% (#28), Jackson 33.9% (#36T)
  • Big Time Throw Percentage: Allen 7.6% (#1), Jackson 5.0% (#4T)
  • Turnover Worthy Play Percentage: Jackson 2.3% (#5T), Allen 4.2% (#29T)
  • Adjusted Completion Percentage: Jackson 74.6% (#20T), Allen 74,2% (#23T)
• From Football Outsiders:
  • Passing Value Over Average (VOA), minimum 200 pass attempts: Allen 15.7% (#5), Jackson 3.8% (#16)
  • Passing Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), minimum 200 pass attempts: Allen 15.9% (#5), Jackson 5.5% (#14)
• From rbsdm:
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)/play: Allen 0.220 (#4), Jackson 0.109 (#12)
  • Adjusted EPA/play: Allen 0.231 (#4), Jackson 0.117 (#12)
  • Success rate: Allen 53.0% (#2), Jackson 49.3% (#14)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE): Allen 0.9% (#11), Jackson -0.6% (#22)
• From Next Gen Stats:
  • Completion Percentage Above Expectation: Allen -0.9% (#20), Jackson -2.4% (#29)

That is 28 metrics, though there is plenty of overlap between the metrics from different sources, so not truly measuring 28 different things. All are rate/efficiency metrics to avoid the issue that Allen played more games. Jackson was ahead of Allen in just 4 of them.

There are plenty of differences that make it challenging to compare two players like Allen and Jackson, since their coaching, schedule, teammates, weather/field conditions, etc. are different. But using these metrics as a proxy, Allen appears to be a much better passer than Jackson based on the 2022 season, which is the most recent evidence we have.

I've done that metric dance on these two offline as well and, as you point out we simply can't answer the "if/then" statements. If Lamar had been in Buffalo with Daboll and Allen in Baltimore with Olson, how would these metrics look? Wish I had that crystal ball.

Which is why I said I consider Allen to be a better QB but the difference is marginal.

 

[LawFitz]

Either the NFL is colluding like crazy to avoid setting the guaranteed money precedent or all the releases about not being interested in LJax were a bunch of smokescreens. We'll find out next week.

 

[dutch]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Cap savings is not enough of a reason to trade MORE for an unproven commodity. Much more, than a 26 year old good QB.

It isn't just cap savings. They literally couldn't afford Jackson. They were only like 10 million under the cap before trading Moore.

Apples to apples let say Atlanta steps up for Jackson using the same parameters, which franchise made the wiser move?

 

[travdogg]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Cap savings is not enough of a reason to trade MORE for an unproven commodity. Much more, than a 26 year old good QB.

It isn't just cap savings. They literally couldn't afford Jackson. They were only like 10 million under the cap before trading Moore.

Apples to apples let say Atlanta steps up for Jackson using the same parameters, which franchise made the wiser move?

It probably benefits the Falcons more in 2023 sure, long term, I don't know. But the Falcons had over 50 million more in cap space than Carolina did.

Lamar is also a better fit for Atlanta, as it seems clear Arthur Smith wants to be a run heavy offense.

Its entirely possible both would be successful moves.

 

[menobrown]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Well we know Carolina was not putting out a smokescreen about lack of interest in Lamar.

Indy becomes intriguing. As far as I recall they were NOT one of the teams that rushed to get word out regarding not wanting to get involved and they might be starting at a situation 3 QB's are off the board if they sit tight.

Well cap space is not a problem. Guessing if they didn’t have to give up 1.04, they would be very interested in this. Not sure they can wait until after the draft.

I've been trying to find out the answer to a question. Does a team have to possess their own 2023#1 to bid on Lamar before the draft or can they possess another teams? In other words can Indy trade back, and then sign Lamar? Which would be risky for them because if Baltimore matches they could be SOL. Might be SOL anyway if they sit at 4.

 

[Chaka]

I've been trying to find out the answer to a question. Does a team have to possess their own 2023#1 to bid on Lamar before the draft or can they possess another teams?

This question has been answered maybe five times in this thread

It has to be the teams original picks in 2023 & 2024 (or 2024 & 2025 if the deal is made after the draft.

Which is why Miami can't make a move until after the draft. They lost their 2023 first for tampering with Brady & Payton.

 

[pollardsvision]

I think the data actually indicates that QBs are more likely to get hurt in the pocket than scrambling/running.

Getting hurt and wearing down are two different things. See Cam Newton and every feature RB who has ever played this game. I LOVE Lamar's game, but he is probably the last of the elite QBs that's I'd consider for a fully guaranteed deal. That said, he's only 26, and if feature RBs are my gauge, then guaranteeing the first three years of a five year deal might be a good way to bridge the gap.

Can Newton’s career got derailed by his messed up AC joint which he injured tackling a guy after he threw an INT.

The idea that running QBs don’t last has plenty of examples that disprove that. John Elway, Steve McNair, Fran Tarkenton, Steve Young, Donovan McNabb. Roethlisberger wasn’t a running QB but scrambled all the time.

My previous point was about "elite running QB's".

Obviously, "elite" is a term we can disagree on. But Elway ran for 300 yards in a season one time (304 yards). If you believe there's a world that exists where Lamar is worth 200 million guaranteed when he's running for 200 yards per year (like Elway), I won't argue with you, that's your opinion.

I mentioned Young and all the reasons I think he's a bad comp.

McNabb is interesting. He never ran for more than 400 yards in a season after age 26. Again, not sure what you would call an elite running QB. But he was serviceable until age 33.

McNair is also good. He peaked as a runner at age 25. Never rushed for even 200 yards after age 29. He was a solid QB up until age 33, then out of the league at age 34.

A very interesting discussion. I still wouldn't say we've seen an elite running QB age well into their 30's. But people can define those terms however they like.

Sorry, to be clear, when I say "elite running QB" I'm not sure anybody else is in the tier with Cunningham, Vick, Cam and Lamar. You get below those guys and it's really easy to get into "great scrambler" territory.

5th best all-time is probably Russell Wilson, and he makes the best case for longevity.

 

[massraider]

It isn't just cap savings. They literally couldn't afford Jackson. They were only a few million under the cap before trading Moore.

Signing a QB to a long term deal, you can make the first years look like whatever you want. Unless Saints cap hell, you can sign him