QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

You don’t have to collude to know it’s bad business to pay huge guaranteed money to a QB who relies on his legs as a big part of his production.

Bad news for Jalen Hurts.

Poor guy is probably gonna have to settle for only $200M guaranteed. Because collusion.

The goal posts keep moving
So far he's doing a great job as his own agent, we'll see where it leads.
His last guaranteed offer was for $133M, it would seem teams will go to the Murray level of $189M guaranteed
You have gone up to $200M guaranteed.
If this keep going he could easily see $250M guaranteed after the Draft and before summer and mini camps start kicking in

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So the longer this goes on the more untenable the situation is with Lamar and the Ravens? I guess I don't understand that. Are the Ravens allowed to do all the leg work with other teams to discuss a tag and trade, and discuss Lamar's contrac with them?
Unless I'm missing something, it seems the length of this situation is on Lamar.

As I've posted and I think you've eluded to it in other posts but...
Imagine Lamar Jackson just sits and waits all summer and does what he can within the rules and signs his tag 3 days before kickoff
No mini camps, no OC meet n greets which likely isn't happening now and makes it easier for him and his camp to say he is moving on and listening to other teams

I know it's difficult sometimes to put our own POV aside to try and see the whole pie or how Lamar Jackson might view things
I would mention how Florida has no State Taxes and that is massive when we are talking about a guy that already doesn't want to cut an agent in on his action.
Jackson is going to get a king's ransom one way or the other and would he rather have life changing money in the cold Northeast and the bright city of Baltimore, MD
Or would he prefer his hometown and South Florida and the warm weather and great lifestyle he grew up in?
I think he wants out of Baltimore and have been pounding that drum since the very beginning, his actions show he is agitated by this whole process.

I'm not trying to sell you my POV gg123 but I am trying to get you to look at it thru Jackson's eyes vs perhaps the Ravens owner and front office.

Look forward to more of your posts
Cheers!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MoP side notes that seem important

-Teams can make offers with their '24 and '25 1st Rd picks within 48 hours of the Draft but not a moment before...think about that for a minute
-2 Days prior to the draft, teams like Miami with no '23 1st can magically start making an offer to Jackson if they choose.

My gut says the Ravens will simply match the offer unless it truly is a market shaker

 

[ghostguy123]

So the longer this goes on the more untenable the situation is with Lamar and the Ravens? I guess I don't understand that. Are the Ravens allowed to do all the leg work with other teams to discuss a tag and trade, and discuss Lamar's contrac with them?
Unless I'm missing something, it seems the length of this situation is on Lamar.

As I've posted and I think you've eluded to it in other posts but...
Imagine Lamar Jackson just sits and waits all summer and does what he can within the rules and signs his tag 3 days before kickoff
No mini camps, no OC meet n greets which likely isn't happening now and makes it easier for him and his camp to say he is moving on and listening to other teams

I know it's difficult sometimes to put our own POV aside to try and see the whole pie or how Lamar Jackson might view things
I would mention how Florida has no State Taxes and that is massive when we are talking about a guy that already doesn't want to cut an agent in on his action.
Jackson is going to get a king's ransom one way or the other and would he rather have life changing money in the cold Northeast and the bright city of Baltimore, MD
Or would he prefer his hometown and South Florida and the warm weather and great lifestyle he grew up in?
I think he wants out of Baltimore and have been pounding that drum since the very beginning, his actions show he is agitated by this whole process.

I'm not trying to sell you my POV gg123 but I am trying to get you to look at it thru Jackson's eyes vs perhaps the Ravens owner and front office.

Look forward to more of your posts
Cheers!

It's March. I wouldn't even consider the possibility of some sort of untenable situation unless this is unresolved when training camp starts. That like 4 months away.

If he truly wants out of Baltimore, then he needs an agent. He needs an agent anyway. What better way to navigate a complex situation involving a dozen moving parts and a quarter billion dollars than to do it blind.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wait wait wait.
48 hours before the draft starts teams can make offers that would not have to include their 2023 1st if Baltimore didn't match???
I did not know that.
Well, if that is true, guessing you might hear some news starting that day.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Wait wait wait.
48 hours before the draft starts teams can make offers that would not have to include their 2023 1st if Baltimore didn't match???
I did not know that.
Well, if that is true, guessing you might hear some news starting that day.

And that's one of the reasons I prefer not to light anyone up in their posts if they disagree with my current POV
I learn more details/rules/cheat codes as I prefer to call them, it seems like everyday.
It becomes harder and harder to digest why teams were punching themselves out of the running so fast, doesn't make sense.
These teams have to know the rules a heckuva lot better than any of us.

-I'm looking at it thru Miami's lenses. A set of lenses I fully understand are set on Tua...or so they say.
-When you factor in that offers can start 2 days prior to the '23 Draft and does not have to include any of the '23 Draft selections, you have to start opening up the board.

Detroit as an example, could use both their #6 and #18 pick this year while simultaneously working a deal for Jackson and trading away Goff.
It should be noted that Goff has made believers out of most of the Lions fan base around here, at least they are willing to ride with him in '23.
But MoP thinks they would make a prime spot where they could maximize their selections right now, upgrade at QB, softer division than ever before with Rodgers gone...likely.

I just find that tidbit of info fascinating when discussing which teams can actually make a run at Jackson.

 

[Anarchy99]

So the longer this goes on the more untenable the situation is with Lamar and the Ravens? I guess I don't understand that. Are the Ravens allowed to do all the leg work with other teams to discuss a tag and trade, and discuss Lamar's contrac with them?
Unless I'm missing something, it seems the length of this situation is on Lamar.

As I've posted and I think you've eluded to it in other posts but...
Imagine Lamar Jackson just sits and waits all summer and does what he can within the rules and signs his tag 3 days before kickoff
No mini camps, no OC meet n greets which likely isn't happening now and makes it easier for him and his camp to say he is moving on and listening to other teams

I know it's difficult sometimes to put our own POV aside to try and see the whole pie or how Lamar Jackson might view things
I would mention how Florida has no State Taxes and that is massive when we are talking about a guy that already doesn't want to cut an agent in on his action.
Jackson is going to get a king's ransom one way or the other and would he rather have life changing money in the cold Northeast and the bright city of Baltimore, MD
Or would he prefer his hometown and South Florida and the warm weather and great lifestyle he grew up in?
I think he wants out of Baltimore and have been pounding that drum since the very beginning, his actions show he is agitated by this whole process.

I'm not trying to sell you my POV gg123 but I am trying to get you to look at it thru Jackson's eyes vs perhaps the Ravens owner and front office.

Look forward to more of your posts
Cheers!

This is why I think either the Ravens cave and give Lamar what he wants or they trade him. IMO, the whole franchise tag / Ravens can match / 2 first round picks won't really enter into it. Does BAL want to risk their QB not showing up all training camp and then not give 100% when he plays . . . thereby derailing their entire season before it even starts? IMO, teams may be dealing with the Ravens directly to figure out a potential trade (which has nothing to do with the two first round pick requirement if they signed Jackson to an offer sheet).

I think teams learned from the WIlson and Watson deals last year that giving up a king's ransom in picks / players / new contract / guaranteed money probably isn't a great strategy. If Jackson has no interest in playing for BAL again, maybe his trade value is a future first, a second rounder, and a player or two. We may be getting to the point in football where malcontents can shoot themselves out of town like they do in basketball.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So the longer this goes on the more untenable the situation is with Lamar and the Ravens? I guess I don't understand that. Are the Ravens allowed to do all the leg work with other teams to discuss a tag and trade, and discuss Lamar's contrac with them?
Unless I'm missing something, it seems the length of this situation is on Lamar.

As I've posted and I think you've eluded to it in other posts but...
Imagine Lamar Jackson just sits and waits all summer and does what he can within the rules and signs his tag 3 days before kickoff
No mini camps, no OC meet n greets which likely isn't happening now and makes it easier for him and his camp to say he is moving on and listening to other teams

I know it's difficult sometimes to put our own POV aside to try and see the whole pie or how Lamar Jackson might view things
I would mention how Florida has no State Taxes and that is massive when we are talking about a guy that already doesn't want to cut an agent in on his action.
Jackson is going to get a king's ransom one way or the other and would he rather have life changing money in the cold Northeast and the bright city of Baltimore, MD
Or would he prefer his hometown and South Florida and the warm weather and great lifestyle he grew up in?
I think he wants out of Baltimore and have been pounding that drum since the very beginning, his actions show he is agitated by this whole process.

I'm not trying to sell you my POV gg123 but I am trying to get you to look at it thru Jackson's eyes vs perhaps the Ravens owner and front office.

Look forward to more of your posts
Cheers!

This is why I think either the Ravens cave and give Lamar what he wants or they trade him. IMO, the whole franchise tag / Ravens can match / 2 first round picks won't really enter into it. Does BAL want to risk their QB not showing up all training camp and then not give 100% when he plays . . . thereby derailing their entire season before it even starts? IMO, teams may be dealing with the Ravens directly to figure out a potential trade (which has nothing to do with the two first round pick requirement if they signed Jackson to an offer sheet).

I think teams learned from the WIlson and Watson deals last year that giving up a king's ransom in picks / players / new contract / guaranteed money probably isn't a great strategy. If Jackson has no interest in playing for BAL again, maybe his trade value is a future first, a second rounder, and a player or two. We may be getting to the point in football where malcontents can shoot themselves out of town like they do in basketball.

I like that logical approach.
If the Ravens really thought they had lost Jackson then they have to ask themselves which path do they go?
Do they take a QB in return from another franchise so they have something of value?
Do they move up to get one of the Top 4-5 QBs in the '23 Draft?
Are they ready for a rookie to walk in and succeed?

 

[ghostguy123]

. We may be getting to the point in football where malcontents can shoot themselves out of town like they do in basketball.

I think we have been at that point for a while. Ever notice when a guy gets traded it also comes with a shiny new contract?
Its in players best interest to get traded it seems.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If I were the Ravens, i would want at least 1 2023 selection as high as possible because getting '24 and '25 1st Rd picks might be somewhere in the 24-32 range and not worth as much as you would get from a Top 15 pick this year.

More food for thought in all of this, so much to digest and analyze IMHO

 

[Anarchy99]

Wait wait wait.
48 hours before the draft starts teams can make offers that would not have to include their 2023 1st if Baltimore didn't match???
I did not know that.
Well, if that is true, guessing you might hear some news starting that day.

And that's one of the reasons I prefer not to light anyone up in their posts if they disagree with my current POV
I learn more details/rules/cheat codes as I prefer to call them, it seems like everyday.
It becomes harder and harder to digest why teams were punching themselves out of the running so fast, doesn't make sense.
These teams have to know the rules a heckuva lot better than any of us.

-I'm looking at it thru Miami's lenses. A set of lenses I fully understand are set on Tua...or so they say.
-When you factor in that offers can start 2 days prior to the '23 Draft and does not have to include any of the '23 Draft selections, you have to start opening up the board.

Detroit as an example, could use both their #6 and #18 pick this year while simultaneously working a deal for Jackson and trading away Goff.
It should be noted that Goff has made believers out of most of the Lions fan base around here, at least they are willing to ride with him in '23.
But MoP thinks they would make a prime spot where they could maximize their selections right now, upgrade at QB, softer division than ever before with Rodgers gone...likely.

I just find that tidbit of info fascinating when discussing which teams can actually make a run at Jackson.

Teams still need to be able to afford Lamar and slot him under the cap. The Fins currently only have $2.7M in cap space for the upcoming season. On top of that, they are projected to be $53M OVER the cap for next year (according to Spotrac) with 6 players carrying a $20+ million cap hit next season and 5 others at $10M+.

Generally speaking, teams in hot pursuit of a big free agent or high-profile trade acquisition start clearing cap space . . . reworking deals, handing out extensions, converting salary into bonuses, adding dummy years to contracts, cutting some high dollar players, etc. MIA has done the complete opposite of that.

Maybe it makes sense for the Dolphins to make a run at Lamar . . . but they certainly haven't acted like they are all that interested.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Wait wait wait.
48 hours before the draft starts teams can make offers that would not have to include their 2023 1st if Baltimore didn't match???
I did not know that.
Well, if that is true, guessing you might hear some news starting that day.

And that's one of the reasons I prefer not to light anyone up in their posts if they disagree with my current POV
I learn more details/rules/cheat codes as I prefer to call them, it seems like everyday.
It becomes harder and harder to digest why teams were punching themselves out of the running so fast, doesn't make sense.
These teams have to know the rules a heckuva lot better than any of us.

-I'm looking at it thru Miami's lenses. A set of lenses I fully understand are set on Tua...or so they say.
-When you factor in that offers can start 2 days prior to the '23 Draft and does not have to include any of the '23 Draft selections, you have to start opening up the board.

Detroit as an example, could use both their #6 and #18 pick this year while simultaneously working a deal for Jackson and trading away Goff.
It should be noted that Goff has made believers out of most of the Lions fan base around here, at least they are willing to ride with him in '23.
But MoP thinks they would make a prime spot where they could maximize their selections right now, upgrade at QB, softer division than ever before with Rodgers gone...likely.

I just find that tidbit of info fascinating when discussing which teams can actually make a run at Jackson.

Teams still need to be able to afford Lamar and slot him under the cap. The Fins currently only have $2.7M in cap space for the upcoming season. On top of that, they are projected to be $53M OVER the cap for next year (according to Spotrac) with 6 players carrying a $20+ million cap hit next season and 5 others at $10M+.

Generally speaking, teams in hot pursuit of a big free agent or high-profile trade acquisition start clearing cap space . . . reworking deals, handing out extensions, converting salary into bonuses, adding dummy years to contracts, cutting some high dollar players, etc. MIA has done the complete opposite of that.

Maybe it makes sense for the Dolphins to make a run at Lamar . . . but they certainly haven't acted like they are all that interested.

The owner Stephen Ross was on the phone with DeShaun Watson and said he would trade for him if he would just clear the lawsuits up ($$$) with absolutely no moral compass at all. You don't remember that happening?

Cleveland paid their QB $1M salary his 1st season, don't scare me with this monopoly cap money.
Teams go from $50M over the cap to $25 under the cap with a couple strokes of the pen.

You want to disguise your moves and I agree with you, Miami is likely going full steam ahead with Tua
That doesn't mean they shouldn't be looking at Lamar Jackson and what it would take to get him.

This owner reverted to cheating in order to try and get the upper hand, he got on one knee for a sexual deviant QB that was refusing to take the field, you really think he wouldn't make a run at Jackson if he wants to? I just want to lend some background so we know who we are talking about here. Stephen Ross is a convicted cheater, Miami is capable of a lot of things.

 

[Anarchy99]

Cleveland paid their QB $1M salary his 1st season, don't scare me with this monopoly cap money.
Teams go from $50M over the cap to $25 under the cap with a couple strokes of the pen.

Sure, there is some flexibility to maneuver the cap, but at some point teams will get pummeled and gutted when the bill comes due. At the time Ross was flirting with guys like Brady and Watson, they hadn't made the roster moves and commitments they made since then. Not exactly apples to apples. Same thing with the Browns. They are projected to be $53M over the cap next season. They will have to make multiple moves to get under the cap next year. They will keep kicking the cap charge for Watson down the line, but he will still limit what they can do with other players.

Some teams are able to go all in and get creative with accounting and win a title (TB and LAR come to mind). Other teams have tried that approach and end up in a vicious circle and still haven't won (or fully recovered) like the Saints. Both the Bucs and Rams are feeling it these days . . . but they at least won a title to show for it.

I am aware that you think there is going to be a huge explosion in the salary cap and teams will have tens of millions of more money to play with, but I'll believe it when I see it and that actually happens.

Ignoring all that, the Dolphins show no indications that they will be pursuing Jackson. They probably should at least discuss it amongst themselves, and maybe they already have. But without major contract reconstruction and other roster moves, I don't think there is a simple and easy way for them to do it without moving on from some key players (or punting on a season completely in the next 2-3 years).

 

[Chaka]

@Ministry of Pain how much cap space do the Dolphins clear if they dish Tua in a deal for Lamar?

ETA: if I read spotrac correctly it's $9.6 mil this year and $24 mil next. Is that correct?

 

[Tau837]

@Ministry of Pain how much cap space do the Dolphins clear if they dish Tua in a deal for Lamar?

ETA: if I read spotrac correctly it's $9.6 mil this year and $24 mil next. Is that correct?

As of today, they would clear $4.7M against the 2023 cap and $23.2M against the 2024 cap by trading him. Source: OverTheCap

But if they don't trade him, they will almost certainly give him a contract extension that will lower his 2024 cap number, so the real savings in 2024 would be less than that.

 

[massraider]

Teams still need to be able to afford Lamar and slot him under the cap. The Fins currently only have $2.7M in cap space for the upcoming season. On top of that, they are projected to be $53M OVER the cap for next year (according to Spotrac) with 6 players carrying a $20+ million cap hit next season and 5 others at $10M+.

Miami Dolphins Salary Cap | Over the Cap

Miami Dolphins salary cap, contracts, bonus money, dead money, and cap savings for every player

overthecap.com

10 million over, and get under the cap by cutting Ogbah. Armstead and Chubb can be re-worked

 

[Anarchy99]

Teams still need to be able to afford Lamar and slot him under the cap. The Fins currently only have $2.7M in cap space for the upcoming season. On top of that, they are projected to be $53M OVER the cap for next year (according to Spotrac) with 6 players carrying a $20+ million cap hit next season and 5 others at $10M+.

Miami Dolphins Salary Cap | Over the Cap

Miami Dolphins salary cap, contracts, bonus money, dead money, and cap savings for every player

overthecap.com

10 million over, and get under the cap by cutting Ogbah. Armstead and Chubb can be re-worked

No one knows what the cap will be for next year. OTC estimates $246M for next year with $256M already committed for the Dolphins. With that math, MIA would be $10M over the cap.

Spotrac has the cap projected at $235M in 2024 and has MIA at $288M in commitments. With their numbers, MIA would be $53M over the cap.

They are both respected and reputable sites. Not looking to start a bruhaha . . . clearly there is a lot of grey zone in the numbers.

 

[Tau837]

Teams still need to be able to afford Lamar and slot him under the cap. The Fins currently only have $2.7M in cap space for the upcoming season. On top of that, they are projected to be $53M OVER the cap for next year (according to Spotrac) with 6 players carrying a $20+ million cap hit next season and 5 others at $10M+.

Miami Dolphins Salary Cap | Over the Cap

Miami Dolphins salary cap, contracts, bonus money, dead money, and cap savings for every player

overthecap.com

10 million over, and get under the cap by cutting Ogbah. Armstead and Chubb can be re-worked

No one knows what the cap will be for next year. OTC estimates $246M for next year with $256M already committed for the Dolphins. With that math, MIA would be $10M over the cap.

Spotrac has the cap projected at $235M in 2024 and has MIA at $288M in commitments. With their numbers, MIA would be $53M over the cap.

They are both respected and reputable sites. Not looking to start a bruhaha . . . clearly there is a lot of grey zone in the numbers.

IMO OTC is always a better source of data, though Spotrac is presented better.

OTC is using $256M as its projected 2024 cap limit, and I think that is much more likely than $235M.

Also, Spotrac is assuming Miami picks up the 5th year option for both Igbinoghene and Austin Jackson. That is more than $25M of cap liabilities in Spotrac's accounting, but I doubt they will exercise either one of those options.

 

[Anarchy99]

IMO OTC is always a better source of data, though Spotrac is presented better.

OTC is using $256M as its projected 2024 cap limit, and I think that is much more likely than $235M.

Also, Spotrac is assuming Miami picks up the 5th year option for both Igbinoghene and Austin Jackson. That is accounting for more than $25M in Spotrac's accounting, but I doubt they will exercise either one of those options.

I am curious what will happen with the cap. Historically, it's averaged around a $10M bump from year to year. The current number is roughly $225M. Using the usual $10M bump, that would make 2024 similar to what Spotrac is projecting. OTC is projecting a one year increase of $31M. We've never seen that big an uptick before, which is why I openly questioned it.

 

[massraider]

Why Lamar Jackson should start negotiating through the media

Sportsnaut NFL insider Benjamin Allbright talks all things Lamar Jackson, coming to a certain conclusion after speaking with several people in the know.

sportsnaut.com

Big fan of this take by Benjamin Allbright. I think he really gets it right.

 

[Tau837]

IMO OTC is always a better source of data, though Spotrac is presented better.

OTC is using $256M as its projected 2024 cap limit, and I think that is much more likely than $235M.

Also, Spotrac is assuming Miami picks up the 5th year option for both Igbinoghene and Austin Jackson. That is accounting for more than $25M in Spotrac's accounting, but I doubt they will exercise either one of those options.

I am curious what will happen with the cap. Historically, it's averaged around a $10M bump from year to year. The current number is roughly $225M. Using the usual $10M bump, that would make 2024 similar to what Spotrac is projecting. OTC is projecting a one year increase of $31M. We've never seen that big an uptick before, which is why I openly questioned it.

IMO it is better to use percentages rather than the dollar figure. Logically, as the cap goes up, it stands to reason that the dollar figure increases should be greater. Look at the history here: NFL CBA: Cap History.

$235M would be a 4.5% year over year increase. The cap was implemented in 1994, so we have 29 years of history on year over year increases. The year over year increase has only been as low as 4.5% once in the past 10 years, in 2021 due to COVID revenue impact.

Meanwhile, the NFL just reworked all of its media deals in 2021, and those deals went up by about 80%. The cap went up by 14% ($25.7M) in 2022, though that is largely due to how depressed the cap was in 2021 due to COVID impact. Even so, the players deferred some benefit payments during COVID that had to be paid back, and that resulted in a ceiling on the 2022 cap... suggesting it would have gone higher if not for that.

Our most recent data point is obviously the 2023 cap, which increased by 8% ($16.6M). I see no reason to believe it would drop to a 4.5% increase in 2024.

 

[Anarchy99]

Our most recent data point is obviously the 2023 cap, which increased by 8% ($16.6M). I see no reason to believe it would drop to a 4.5% increase in 2024.

We'll see when we get there. If we just pretend 2021 never happened, the average increase of $10M would have held true for essentially 10 years . . . $123.6M in 2013 to $224.8M in 2023.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Teams still need to be able to afford Lamar and slot him under the cap. The Fins currently only have $2.7M in cap space for the upcoming season. On top of that, they are projected to be $53M OVER the cap for next year (according to Spotrac) with 6 players carrying a $20+ million cap hit next season and 5 others at $10M+.

Miami Dolphins Salary Cap | Over the Cap

Miami Dolphins salary cap, contracts, bonus money, dead money, and cap savings for every player

overthecap.com

10 million over, and get under the cap by cutting Ogbah. Armstead and Chubb can be re-worked

No one knows what the cap will be for next year. OTC estimates $246M for next year with $256M already committed for the Dolphins. With that math, MIA would be $10M over the cap.

Spotrac has the cap projected at $235M in 2024 and has MIA at $288M in commitments. With their numbers, MIA would be $53M over the cap.

They are both respected and reputable sites. Not looking to start a bruhaha . . . clearly there is a lot of grey zone in the numbers.

IMO OTC is always a better source of data, though Spotrac is presented better.

OTC is using $256M as its projected 2024 cap limit, and I think that is much more likely than $235M.

Also, Spotrac is assuming Miami picks up the 5th year option for both Igbinoghene and Austin Jackson. That is more than $25M of cap liabilities in Spotrac's accounting, but I doubt they will exercise either one of those options.

Igbo is gone, might not make the final roster if you go up and down the stable of DBS floating around the Miami roster...he isn't better than Kohou, Crossen or Needham and those 3 slot in behind Howard and Ramsey now.

I think Miami should trade Austin Jackson for a 4rd or 4th while they still can. His market value hovers around $10M per year(cough cough), get him out of here.

There's no way they exercise 5th year options on these 2 1st Rd Bloopers from the same 2020 draft.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Why Lamar Jackson should start negotiating through the media

Sportsnaut NFL insider Benjamin Allbright talks all things Lamar Jackson, coming to a certain conclusion after speaking with several people in the know.

sportsnaut.com

Big fan of this take by Benjamin Allbright. I think he really gets it right.

I appreciate you finding this...

“We’ve been operating under the assumption that Baltimore is likely to match whatever offer is put in front of him, so do we really want to go down that road and waste our time? We don’t know that he wants out of Baltimore, we don’t know what it is he’s really looking for and we wouldn’t know where to open negotiations because there’s no starting number that’s been given to me by him.”

NFC executive on Lamar Jackson situation
-That's an insincere statement IMHO.


More stuff I like...

"What that exec meant was the NFL’s rule that any guaranteed money in a contract has to be in an escrow account mere weeks after the deal is signed. Contrary to popular belief, many teams don’t have $200 million in cash just lying around. The Bengals and Chargers are both on the verge of huge deals with their quarterbacks and are scrambling to cobble together the cash needed for those contracts.

-Mike Brown cobbling together the money and people wonder why I rip the cheapness of both the Bengals and Chargers over the years.
-36 months for the Chargers and Bengals, we're approaching 60 months for the Ravens and they've started to use the franchise tag to push it out to 72.

 

[Tau837]

Our most recent data point is obviously the 2023 cap, which increased by 8% ($16.6M). I see no reason to believe it would drop to a 4.5% increase in 2024.

We'll see when we get there. If we just pretend 2021 never happened, the average increase of $10M would have held true for essentially 10 years . . . $123.6M in 2013 to $224.8M in 2023.

While this is true, I think you are underestimating the impact of the massive increase in media rights revenue.

Combining those deals for Thursday night, Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, Monday night, and Sunday Ticket, the previous deals were paying $7.17B / year. The new deals will pay $11.46B / year. See this article. That is a 60% increase. Those deals begin in 2023.

Also, the players' percentage of revenue will increase due to the media deals. I'm not aware that the amount of that increase is known yet. From NFL Economics 101:

Based on the incremental increase in the dollar amounts of the already announced new media deals (“Media Kicker”), our percentage of AR will increase above 48%. The exact amount of this increase will be determined when the league’s remaining media negotiations are completed.

That article explains how the cap is calculated, and it is surprisingly straightforward. I assume those media deals don't immediately jump to +60%, but instead there is a year over year increase in each year of each deal. But I expect NFL revenue in 2023 will increase by its largest amount year over year in league history. That will flow down to the 2024 salary cap.

 

[Anarchy99]

Our most recent data point is obviously the 2023 cap, which increased by 8% ($16.6M). I see no reason to believe it would drop to a 4.5% increase in 2024.

We'll see when we get there. If we just pretend 2021 never happened, the average increase of $10M would have held true for essentially 10 years . . . $123.6M in 2013 to $224.8M in 2023.

While this is true, I think you are underestimating the impact of the massive increase in media rights revenue.

Combining those deals for Thursday night, Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, Monday night, and Sunday Ticket, the previous deals were paying $7.17B / year. The new deals will pay $11.46B / year. See this article. That is a 60% increase. Those deals begin in 2023.

Also, the players' percentage of revenue will increase due to the media deals. I'm not aware that the amount of that increase is known yet. From NFL Economics 101:

Based on the incremental increase in the dollar amounts of the already announced new media deals (“Media Kicker”), our percentage of AR will increase above 48%. The exact amount of this increase will be determined when the league’s remaining media negotiations are completed.

That article explains how the cap is calculated, and it is surprisingly straightforward. I assume those media deals don't immediately jump to +60%, but instead there is a year over year increase in each year of each deal. But I expect NFL revenue in 2023 will increase by its largest amount year over year in league history. That will flow down to the 2024 salary cap.

I readily admit I don't know what will happen to the salary cap moving forward. However, I remember what some of the sports media talking heads have erroneously been reporting for years. I vividly recall at one point there was a new CBA. I believe it was the one from 2011. Each new revenue sharing agreement has a tiered implementation schedule, meaning it goes up each year. The math was something along the lines of the following. The prior cap was $120M. It was slated to go up to a projected $200M over the life of the agreement. But it would be something close to a $10 million increase a year over 8 years.

I remember the media reports as follows . . .

- Salary cap expected to almost double (from $120M to $200M . . . look at all the extra cap money next year!
- Teams to each get an extra $360M to spend on players! It will be the wild, wild west in free agency! (Adding up all the money over the length of the agreement but awarding it all at once.)
- New tv / revenue sharing / licensing / gambling / partnership deals expected to bump salary cap $40-50M immediately.

To be clear, I am not remotely suggesting you or anyone in this thread is making those types of claims. It was sports reporting types back in the day. I get it, the salary cap is somewhat complicated with a lot to know to figure out how it works. But I have been hearing about huge jumps in the salary cap by tens of millions of dollars YOY for over a decade (and it did not materialize). Maybe it will start escalating at a lot higher rate and there will be a $300M cap in a few years. Hats off to the players if that comes to fruition.

 

[Tau837]

Our most recent data point is obviously the 2023 cap, which increased by 8% ($16.6M). I see no reason to believe it would drop to a 4.5% increase in 2024.

We'll see when we get there. If we just pretend 2021 never happened, the average increase of $10M would have held true for essentially 10 years . . . $123.6M in 2013 to $224.8M in 2023.

While this is true, I think you are underestimating the impact of the massive increase in media rights revenue.

Combining those deals for Thursday night, Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, Monday night, and Sunday Ticket, the previous deals were paying $7.17B / year. The new deals will pay $11.46B / year. See this article. That is a 60% increase. Those deals begin in 2023.

Also, the players' percentage of revenue will increase due to the media deals. I'm not aware that the amount of that increase is known yet. From NFL Economics 101:

Based on the incremental increase in the dollar amounts of the already announced new media deals (“Media Kicker”), our percentage of AR will increase above 48%. The exact amount of this increase will be determined when the league’s remaining media negotiations are completed.

That article explains how the cap is calculated, and it is surprisingly straightforward. I assume those media deals don't immediately jump to +60%, but instead there is a year over year increase in each year of each deal. But I expect NFL revenue in 2023 will increase by its largest amount year over year in league history. That will flow down to the 2024 salary cap.

I readily admit I don't know what will happen to the salary cap moving forward. However, I remember what some of the sports media talking heads have erroneously been reporting for years. I vividly recall at one point there was a new CBA. I believe it was the one from 2011. Each new revenue sharing agreement has a tiered implementation schedule, meaning it goes up each year. The math was something along the lines of the following. The prior cap was $120M. It was slated to go up to a projected $200M over the life of the agreement. But it would be something close to a $10 million increase a year over 8 years.

I remember the media reports as follows . . .

- Salary cap expected to almost double (from $120M to $200M . . . look at all the extra cap money next year!
- Teams to each get an extra $360M to spend on players! It will be the wild, wild west in free agency! (Adding up all the money over the length of the agreement but awarding it all at once.)
- New tv / revenue sharing / licensing / gambling / partnership deals expected to bump salary cap $40-50M immediately.

To be clear, I am not remotely suggesting you or anyone in this thread is making those types of claims. It was sports reporting types back in the day. I get it, the salary cap is somewhat complicated with a lot to know to figure out how it works. But I have been hearing about huge jumps in the salary cap by tens of millions of dollars YOY for over a decade (and it did not materialize). Maybe it will start escalating at a lot higher rate and there will be a $300M cap in a few years. Hats off to the players if that comes to fruition.

Well, under the 2011 CBA, owners got to deduct expenses before getting to a revenue amount to be shared with the players. That created opportunity for accounting shenanigans. That went away in the 2020 CBA... no more deductions. It simplifies things considerably.

To be clear, I don't care what sensationalistic media outlets report. What I have posted here is factual as far as I know. The salary cap in 2024 and beyond is not the salary cap of the 2010s.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Our most recent data point is obviously the 2023 cap, which increased by 8% ($16.6M). I see no reason to believe it would drop to a 4.5% increase in 2024.

We'll see when we get there. If we just pretend 2021 never happened, the average increase of $10M would have held true for essentially 10 years . . . $123.6M in 2013 to $224.8M in 2023.

While this is true, I think you are underestimating the impact of the massive increase in media rights revenue.

Combining those deals for Thursday night, Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, Monday night, and Sunday Ticket, the previous deals were paying $7.17B / year. The new deals will pay $11.46B / year. See this article. That is a 60% increase. Those deals begin in 2023.

Also, the players' percentage of revenue will increase due to the media deals. I'm not aware that the amount of that increase is known yet. From NFL Economics 101:

Based on the incremental increase in the dollar amounts of the already announced new media deals (“Media Kicker”), our percentage of AR will increase above 48%. The exact amount of this increase will be determined when the league’s remaining media negotiations are completed.

That article explains how the cap is calculated, and it is surprisingly straightforward. I assume those media deals don't immediately jump to +60%, but instead there is a year over year increase in each year of each deal. But I expect NFL revenue in 2023 will increase by its largest amount year over year in league history. That will flow down to the 2024 salary cap.

I readily admit I don't know what will happen to the salary cap moving forward. However, I remember what some of the sports media talking heads have erroneously been reporting for years. I vividly recall at one point there was a new CBA. I believe it was the one from 2011. Each new revenue sharing agreement has a tiered implementation schedule, meaning it goes up each year. The math was something along the lines of the following. The prior cap was $120M. It was slated to go up to a projected $200M over the life of the agreement. But it would be something close to a $10 million increase a year over 8 years.

I remember the media reports as follows . . .

- Salary cap expected to almost double (from $120M to $200M . . . look at all the extra cap money next year!
- Teams to each get an extra $360M to spend on players! It will be the wild, wild west in free agency! (Adding up all the money over the length of the agreement but awarding it all at once.)
- New tv / revenue sharing / licensing / gambling / partnership deals expected to bump salary cap $40-50M immediately.

To be clear, I am not remotely suggesting you or anyone in this thread is making those types of claims. It was sports reporting types back in the day. I get it, the salary cap is somewhat complicated with a lot to know to figure out how it works. But I have been hearing about huge jumps in the salary cap by tens of millions of dollars YOY for over a decade (and it did not materialize). Maybe it will start escalating at a lot higher rate and there will be a $300M cap in a few years. Hats off to the players if that comes to fruition.

Well, under the 2011 CBA, owners got to deduct expenses before getting to a revenue amount to be shared with the players. That created opportunity for accounting shenanigans. That went away in the 2020 CBA... no more deductions. It simplifies things considerably.

To be clear, I don't care what sensationalistic media outlets report. What I have posted here is factual as far as I know. The salary cap in 2024 and beyond is not the salary cap of the 2010s.

I bet Daniel Snyder had a huge hand in the accounting shenanigans ye speak of

 

[fatness]

I think the opposite...I think Lamar has backed himself into a corner. He plays on the franchise tag and if he runs as much this year as he has the last two years there is a high probability he gets injured and if he does that again his value is going to be half what it is now.

You realize that Greg Roman built the entire offense around Jackson running, and got fired for it, right?

How do you think the Ravens play this year if Jackson doesn't play for them? Thanks.

 

[fatness]

I know it's difficult sometimes to put our own POV aside to try and see the whole pie or how Lamar Jackson might view things
I would mention how Florida has no State Taxes and that is massive when we are talking about a guy that already doesn't want to cut an agent in on his action.

Not disagreeing with the rest of your post, but Florida only has the 11th lowest tax burden by state. https://taxfoundation.org/publications/state-local-tax-burden-rankings/
There are other state taxes in every state besides income taxes, and they add up. Florida has just done a particularly good job of advertising their 0% income tax, and doesn't mention their other state taxes.

As far as overall tax burden goes, looks like Atlanta, Detroit, Carolina, Tennessee, Houston, and Dallas have Florida beat.

 

[massraider]

Florida has no State Taxes

If you ever get banned, this would be a great alias for you, if you are thinking of a handle

 

[kface]

I think the opposite...I think Lamar has backed himself into a corner. He plays on the franchise tag and if he runs as much this year as he has the last two years there is a high probability he gets injured and if he does that again his value is going to be half what it is now.

You realize that Greg Roman built the entire offense around Jackson running, and got fired for it, right?

How do you think the Ravens play this year if Jackson doesn't play for them? Thanks.

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

If they run him 20 times a game they probably win 10 games (if he stays healthy)

If Lamar leaves short term pain for long term gain for the Ravens.

 

[Godsbrother]

I think the opposite...I think Lamar has backed himself into a corner. He plays on the franchise tag and if he runs as much this year as he has the last two years there is a high probability he gets injured and if he does that again his value is going to be half what it is now.

You realize that Greg Roman built the entire offense around Jackson running, and got fired for it, right?

How do you think the Ravens play this year if Jackson doesn't play for them? Thanks.

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

This is precisely why I would be hesitant in signing Jackson to a long term deal with a ton on money up front. As long as he remains healthy and can use his legs he can be elite -- as soon as he is hobbled or loses a step he is an average QB at best.

 

[kface]

I think the opposite...I think Lamar has backed himself into a corner. He plays on the franchise tag and if he runs as much this year as he has the last two years there is a high probability he gets injured and if he does that again his value is going to be half what it is now.

You realize that Greg Roman built the entire offense around Jackson running, and got fired for it, right?

How do you think the Ravens play this year if Jackson doesn't play for them? Thanks.

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

This is precisely why I would be hesitant in signing Jackson to a long term deal with a ton on money up front. As long as he remains healthy and can use his legs he can be elite -- as soon as he is hobbled or loses a step he is an average QB at best.

Spot on

And I think that's why everyone is struggling with him. It would be one thing if he wasn't injured two years in a row.

He just has not shown enough as a pocket passer. As an owner I'm amazed at how much he misses by on some throws - amateur level sometimes.

I have been saying for years that no other QB has taken the abuse that Lamar does with sometimes 15-20 carries in a single game. That's primarily unheard of for a QB.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I think the opposite...I think Lamar has backed himself into a corner. He plays on the franchise tag and if he runs as much this year as he has the last two years there is a high probability he gets injured and if he does that again his value is going to be half what it is now.

You realize that Greg Roman built the entire offense around Jackson running, and got fired for it, right?

How do you think the Ravens play this year if Jackson doesn't play for them? Thanks.

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

This is precisely why I would be hesitant in signing Jackson to a long term deal with a ton on money up front. As long as he remains healthy and can use his legs he can be elite -- as soon as he is hobbled or loses a step he is an average QB at best.

Yep. As a fan, I love Jackson. He's fun to watch, he has elite athleticism of the sort that I haven't seen in any player since Michael Vick, and he seems to enjoy himself when he's playing. As a GM, I would hate this guy because I have to build the offense around a very unusual skill set that won't carry over to most other QBs, I don't feel that I can count on Jackson to stay healthy over the long haul, and somebody out there is going to be willing to pay him like an elite passer so he has a very high market salary. That's a scary combination for a team. Very high ceiling, but very low floor.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Florida has no State Taxes

If you ever get banned, this would be a great alias for you, if you are thinking of a handle

Going over your wish list in here?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think the opposite...I think Lamar has backed himself into a corner. He plays on the franchise tag and if he runs as much this year as he has the last two years there is a high probability he gets injured and if he does that again his value is going to be half what it is now.

You realize that Greg Roman built the entire offense around Jackson running, and got fired for it, right?

How do you think the Ravens play this year if Jackson doesn't play for them? Thanks.

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

This is precisely why I would be hesitant in signing Jackson to a long term deal with a ton on money up front. As long as he remains healthy and can use his legs he can be elite -- as soon as he is hobbled or loses a step he is an average QB at best.

Yep. As a fan, I love Jackson. He's fun to watch, he has elite athleticism of the sort that I haven't seen in any player since Michael Vick, and he seems to enjoy himself when he's playing. As a GM, I would hate this guy because I have to build the offense around a very unusual skill set that won't carry over to most other QBs, I don't feel that I can count on Jackson to stay healthy over the long haul, and somebody out there is going to be willing to pay him like an elite passer so he has a very high market salary. That's a scary combination for a team. Very high ceiling, but very low floor.

I have been wanting to make the Michael Vick analogy but they are different
But Jackson is the closest thing we've seen to Michael Vick

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Still funny as hell

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Another great Vick highlight reel from NFL Throwback

Michael Vick's UNREAL Career Highlights | NFL Legends Highlights

The full career highlights of former NFL quarterback Michael Vick.Watch full games with NFL Game Pass: https://www.nfl.com/gamepass?campaign=sp-nf-gd-ot-yt-3...

www.youtube.com

 

[Chaka]

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

If they run him 20 times a game they probably win 10 games (if he stays healthy)

There is a lot of middle ground between these two possibilities.

 

[menobrown]

Now some guy named Ken Francis has entered the chat.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1639021010576986116

 

[Leroy Hoard]

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

If they run him 20 times a game they probably win 10 games (if he stays healthy)

There is a lot of middle ground between these two possibilities.

True, he could get 8 wins plus a tie.

 

[massraider]

Now some guy named Ken Francis has entered the chat.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1639021010576986116

Oh vey.

He’s probably Lamar’s barber/part time crypto investor

 

[menobrown]

Now some guy named Ken Francis has entered the chat.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1639021010576986116

Oh vey.

He’s probably Lamar’s barber/part time crypto investor

Well

Tom Pelissero

@TomPelissero
·
3m

Ken Francis is a Florida man who most recently was pitching a home fitness invention, I’m told. He now is trying to negotiate a nine-figure contract with NFL teams, who are being told they’re not allowed to negotiate with him because he’s not a certified agent.

 

[massraider]

Ken Francis is a Florida man

Oh my lord, worse than I thought.

 

[massraider]

https://twitter.com/Lj_era8/status/1639026740377927681?s=20

Lamar has already responded to this story.

what fantastic drama this is.

 

[ghostguy123]

Kinda funny if random people are trying to negotiate for him without his even knowing. I can see it.

 

[massraider]

The NFLPA informed the league.

If I can direct your attention to previous outrage, the NFLPA has been advising Lamar, so seems like this guy might be a loose cannon, and nothing to do with Lamar.

 

[Chaka]

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

If they run him 20 times a game they probably win 10 games (if he stays healthy)

There is a lot of middle ground between these two possibilities.

True, he could get 8 wins plus a tie.

LOL you know I meant between being a strict pocket passer and running the ball 20 times/game (neither of which are actually a thing in his career).

 

[Chaka]

Now some guy named Ken Francis has entered the chat.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1639021010576986116

Oh vey.

He’s probably Lamar’s barber/part time crypto investor

Well

Tom Pelissero
@TomPelissero
·
3m

Ken Francis is a Florida man who most recently was pitching a home fitness invention, I’m told. He now is trying to negotiate a nine-figure contract with NFL teams, who are being told they’re not allowed to negotiate with him because he’s not a certified agent.

FLORIDA MAN!!!!

RUN!!!!!!

 

[fatness]

I think the opposite...I think Lamar has backed himself into a corner. He plays on the franchise tag and if he runs as much this year as he has the last two years there is a high probability he gets injured and if he does that again his value is going to be half what it is now.

You realize that Greg Roman built the entire offense around Jackson running, and got fired for it, right?

How do you think the Ravens play this year if Jackson doesn't play for them? Thanks.

If they change their offense to Lamar standing in the pocket and making reads and passing in 3 seconds I think they win 7 games

If they run him 20 times a game they probably win 10 games (if he stays healthy)

If Lamar leaves short term pain for long term gain for the Ravens.

There's a wide, wide variety of offensive schemes in between those 2 extremes; I think you realize that. Eagles, Giants, Chiefs, Bills, and others are in between those extremes. Anything resembling those schemes would benefit both the team and Jackson (if he's playing). I don't know what to expect from the new OC but it won't be a repeat of Roman's failing scheme which defenses were accustomed to seeing from the Ravens.

How long do you think the short term pain will be if Jackson leaves the Ravens? They only have 5 draft picks, have not re-signed many of their free agents, and don't have an NFL-caliber QB without him. I think they're looking at 2-3 losing years, minimum, without Jackson.