He's 26 and he was MVP in 2019. The odds of either of those picks being better than the more recent version of Lamar are far higher than 5% IMO, and even if neither was it could still be the better side of the deal.
List of NFL MVP winners over the past 20 years:
17 QBs won NFL MVP
Of those 17 NFL MVP QBs, a few won multiple awards.
Patrick Mahomes - 2 times
Aaron Rodgers - 4 times
Tom Brady - 2 times
Peyton Manning - 4 times
Of those 17 MVP QBs, only 7 different QBs won NFL MVP over the past 20 years.
Of those 7 only 3 currently are playing in the league.
Over the same time frame, past 20 years there have been 239 QBs drafted.
Over the same time frame, of those 239 drafted QBs only 5 won the NFL MVP award.
That breaks down to .020% chance of drafting a league MVP QB over two decades of drafting.
0.020% is far lower than 5.000%.