QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (3 Viewers)

[massraider]

I am sure someone has brought it up already, but if that Commanders sale were to happen quickly, that might be a wild card.

 

[Boston]

I'm sure the offers are going to come flooding in now. "Oh, we thought you wanted a $235mil fully guaranteed contract. Why didn't you say that you only wanted a $275mil contract with $235mil guaranteed?"

Yeah, I got the vibe that Lamar's camp wanted that info out as he thought it would play better to the public/teams. Bad read if so.

When this is over I hope there is an interview with him where they discuss the decision not to have an agent…would love to know more about it.

 

[The Frankman]

I also just wanted to pop in and say that this happened like a year ago:

Kirk Cousins signed a 1 year, $35,000,000 contract with the Minnesota Vikings, including a $25,000,000 signing bonus, $35,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $35,000,000. In 2023, Cousins will earn a base salary of $10,000,000 and a restructure bonus of $20,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $20,250,000 and a dead cap value of $48,750,000.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yup...this is a great way to do things but if drafting a stud QB in the 6th round was easy everyone would be doing it.

Fixed.

All it takes is a 6th round pick and a year on the practice squad and it is nothing but rings after that.

Not sure what all the fuss about first round QBs is about when other guys like these are available for cheap. Any good GM should be able to snag one or two guys like these. Easy, peasy.

Warren Moon, UDFA, 49K passing yards
Dave Krieg, UDFA, 38K passing yards
Matt Hasselbeck, Pick 187, 36K passing yards
Tony Romo, UDFA, 34K passing yards
Steve DeBerg, Pick 275, 34K passing yards
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Pick 250, 34K passing yards
Jim Hart, UDFA, 34K passing yards
Kurt Warner, UDFA, 32K passing yards
Jon Kitna, UDFA, 29K passing yards
Trent Green, Pick 222, 28K passing yards
Jeff Garcia, UDFA, 25K passing yards
Brian Sipe, Pick 330, 23K passing yards
Marc Bulger, Pick 168, 22K passing yards
Jim Zorn, UDFA, 21K passing yards
Bobby Hebert, UDFA, 21K passing yards
Gus Frerotte, Pick 197, 21K passing yards
Jake Delhomme, UDFA, 20K passing yards

 

[Tau837]

New contract coming quick for Hurts and, likely Burrow & Herbert. So that rookie contract window is effectively over.

So, essentially the premise @Grahamburn posits is you have a three year window with a rookie QB and then you hope he's Mahomes or Burrow and if he isn't you go back to formula.

These things aren't true as written. I expect Herbert and Burrow to be treated the same as Mahomes, Allen, and Murray. Their teams will almost certainly pick up their 5th year options first, then sign them to contract extensions after that in this offseason. That sets the stage for the big cap hit jump for them to be in their 6th seasons, just like Mahomes, Allen, and Murray.

A non-first round QB like Hurts has no 5th year option. so perhaps his big cap jump will occur in his 5th season... but it wouldn't necessarily have to, just depends on the contract structure.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

just got caught up.

So it’s true he doesn’t want a fully guaranteed contract. Ha! Suck it, haters!

Oh, but he wants more fully guaranteed than Watson got.


He really needs to fire his agent. This is some negotiating.

 

[GregR]

LJ can play 2023 under the $32m tender.

According to LJ himself, he turned down 3y/$133m fully guaranteed = $44m average value.

So hypothetically, let's say LJ plays 2023 on the tender. He's losing out $12m compared to if he'd signed the contract.

Does anyone think a future deal he's likely to sign would make $12m more in future years than the contract he could have already had, to where he'd at least break even?

 

[ghostguy123]

LJ can play 2023 under the $32m tender.

According to LJ himself, he turned down 3y/$133m fully guaranteed = $44m average value.

So hypothetically, let's say LJ plays 2023 on the tender. He's losing out $12m compared to if he'd signed the contract.

Does anyone think a future deal he's likely to sign would make $12m more in future years than the contract he could have already had, to where he'd at least break even?

Not to mention he might get hurt and lose out on the rest.
He is doing it wrong.

 

[Chaka]

LJ can play 2023 under the $32m tender.

According to LJ himself, he turned down 3y/$133m fully guaranteed = $44m average value.

So hypothetically, let's say LJ plays 2023 on the tender. He's losing out $12m compared to if he'd signed the contract.

Does anyone think a future deal he's likely to sign would make $12m more in future years than the contract he could have already had, to where he'd at least break even?

Not to mention he might get hurt and lose out on the rest.
He is doing it wrong.

I think his biggest loss related to the contract is how much he is delaying getting to his next contract. If he signed a 5 year deal after his third season he would be hitting his next big payday at 28 years old, now he won't see that until 30 at the earliest. If he plays franchise tag roulette for the next two seasons it will be closer to 32 when he will have needed to prove he can be effective from the pocket. He gambled a ton on this play and I don't think it will work out best for him in the end.

 

[Tau837]

LJ can play 2023 under the $32m tender.

According to LJ himself, he turned down 3y/$133m fully guaranteed = $44m average value.

So hypothetically, let's say LJ plays 2023 on the tender. He's losing out $12m compared to if he'd signed the contract.

Does anyone think a future deal he's likely to sign would make $12m more in future years than the contract he could have already had, to where he'd at least break even?

Not to mention he might get hurt and lose out on the rest.
He is doing it wrong.

I think his biggest loss related to the contract is how much he is delaying getting to his next contract. If he signed a 5 year deal after his third season he would be hitting his next big payday at 28 years old, now he won't see that until 30 at the earliest. If he plays franchise tag roulette for the next two seasons it will be closer to 32 when he will have needed to prove he can be effective from the pocket. He gambled a ton on this play and I don't think it will work out best for him in the end.

This is almost certainly false in terms of the timing.

If he signed a 5 year contract extension after his 3rd season, the Ravens would almost certainly have first picked up his 5th year option, meaning the 5 year extension would begin in year 6 of his career, after the 5th year option season. In that case, if he played out the extension, he would become a potential UFA after his 10th season at age 31.

All you have to do is look at how the contract extensions for Mahomes, Allen, and Murray worked.

 

[GregR]

After posting that, I ended up later on CBS Sports and they have an article addressing the positives and negatives if he actually sits out for a season. Where they reference him losing out on $32m rather than $44m. Seems like the $44m would be the number to use.

 

[ghostguy123]

Sitting out the season would make not having an agent look like a smart move in comparison.

 

[rockaction]

What if an All-Pro QB left the game in his prime because $133M wasn't enough for three years?

That would be laughable.

Okay, Lamar. You couldn't buy a bigger island with it.

Some guys need to read Tolstoy's "How Much Land Does a Man Need?"

 

[ghostguy123]

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

 

[-OZ-]

What if an All-Pro QB left the game in his prime because $133M wasn't enough for three years?

That would be laughable.

Okay, Lamar. You couldn't buy a bigger island with it.

Some guys need to read Tolstoy's "How Much Land Does a Man Need?"

Yeah. But. PRIDE! it would be totally insulting to play on less than $40 million!

 

[ChiefD]

This is sad on a lot of levels. I feel for the guy because he is guided by ignorance.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Does anyone think a future deal he's likely to sign would make $12m more in future years than the contract he could have already had, to where he'd at least break even?

Doubtful.

Also, right or wrong there are probably a lot of fans who just want winning football and not the will he/won’t he saga of LJax’s contract.

Perception becomes reality - season ticket holders staying happy isn’t a team’s only concern, but it is a concern.

 

[eNdblu]

Just finished watching this video by Brett Kollmann outlining some of the issues w/ Lamar and his request for as much guaranteed money as he's asking - https://youtu.be/4PFnu0WVJVQ

It talks about how the Ravens might be able to give him the kind of contract that he wants without needing all that money this year.

It also goes into explaining the flexibility behind how the funny money of Derek Carr's contract differs from the very inflexible guaranteed contract of Watson

 

[Grahamburn]

Dew Fuss.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Tyrann Mathieu
@Mathieu_Era
This man got hurt twice inside the pocket. I’ve never seen anyone tackle him with a heavy hit in space, his game is special and rare. I have never seen this guy take a hit when running and not get up immediately(he owns a mean stiff arm. When he hurt himself it was inside pocket.

Jonas Shaffer
@jonas_shaffer
Greg Roman on Lamar Jackson: "Honestly, he was safest when he was out in space on the move because he was in control as opposed to in the pocket with his eyes downfield, hoping somebody doesn’t run into the back of his legs."
----------------------
Building an Offense Around a Mobile Quarterback Like Lamar Jackson
...Jackson was such a master of avoiding hits, and honestly, he was safest when he was out in space on the move because he was in control as opposed to in the pocket with his eyes downfield, hoping somebody doesn’t run into the back of his legs. The few times he got injured were behind the line of scrimmage, looking to make a throw down the field.
But it never was an issue when he was running out in space. That’s pretty counterintuitive to what many people believe to be true. It comes back to the specific player, and their style when they run. Allen will run some defenders over, so there’s some hard contact at times. ...

 

[ghostguy123]

Is it a ringing endorsement that he only gets hurt while in the pocket??

 

[Snotbubbles]

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

 

[Catbird]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

 

[ghostguy123]

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

Probably, but if the new trend is fully guaranteed, then the length of the contracts will have to be shorter.

 

[Boston]

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

 

[Boston]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

It will be interesting to see what happens because that position does appear to be different from pretty much all the other ones...not just with $ but with rules.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

It will be interesting to see what happens because that position does appear to be different from pretty much all the other ones...not just with $ but with rules.

From what I've read, the QB position alone is going to eat up most of the increases in the salary cap.

 

[ghostguy123]

It will be interesting to see what happens because that position does appear to be different from pretty much all the other ones...not just with $ but with rules.

From what I've read, the QB position alone is going to eat up most of the increases in the salary cap.

Well, teams will pay for what gets them wins, right?
The players association should get the league minimums increased at the very least.

 

[Boston]

It will be interesting to see what happens because that position does appear to be different from pretty much all the other ones...not just with $ but with rules.

From what I've read, the QB position alone is going to eat up most of the increases in the salary cap.

Yup...the law of unintended consequences...the league is all in on offense and protecting the QB the position now dwarves any other position in importance.

 

[-OZ-]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

Seems like a better move imo to not make the guaranteed money a cap hit if the player gets injured or cut.
Let the player get their guaranteed money, while not weighing down the franchise unnecessarily. I don’t know if they’ll do that but it makes sense to me.

 

[Tau837]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

Seems like a better move imo to not make the guaranteed money a cap hit if the player gets injured or cut.
Let the player get their guaranteed money, while not weighing down the franchise unnecessarily. I don’t know if they’ll do that but it makes sense to me.

That is not a hard cap.

That would provide teams that can spend more (e.g., Dallas) an advantage over those that cannot (e.g., Vegas), which is not in line with the parity the league desires.

That would also mean the players would get more than the share of the NFL revenue that was negotiated in the CBA, which is counter to that agreement.

 

[ghostguy123]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

Seems like a better move imo to not make the guaranteed money a cap hit if the player gets injured or cut.
Let the player get their guaranteed money, while not weighing down the franchise unnecessarily. I don’t know if they’ll do that but it makes sense to me.

That won't work. It would basically mean no salary cap.
A team could sign Rodgers for 200 million guaranteed for 8 years, then cut him in two years, rinse repeat.

 

[ghostguy123]

I don't think they need to change anything except raising the league minimum.
It will all work itself out.
No reason to feel bad for these QBs

 

[The Frankman]

The Onion:

NFL Owners Announce Secret Meeting To Make Sure They Aren’t Colluding Against Lamar Jackson

​

 

[-OZ-]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

Seems like a better move imo to not make the guaranteed money a cap hit if the player gets injured or cut.
Let the player get their guaranteed money, while not weighing down the franchise unnecessarily. I don’t know if they’ll do that but it makes sense to me.

That won't work. It would basically mean no salary cap.
A team could sign Rodgers for 200 million guaranteed for 8 years, then cut him in two years, rinse repeat.

The cap would just apply to the players on the roster that year.
Maybe just for injury / retirement or a % for a cut.

 

[ghostguy123]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

Seems like a better move imo to not make the guaranteed money a cap hit if the player gets injured or cut.
Let the player get their guaranteed money, while not weighing down the franchise unnecessarily. I don’t know if they’ll do that but it makes sense to me.

That won't work. It would basically mean no salary cap.
A team could sign Rodgers for 200 million guaranteed for 8 years, then cut him in two years, rinse repeat.

The cap would just apply to the players on the roster that year.
Maybe just for injury / retirement or a % for a cut.

I understand that.
But, do you understand that Jerry Jones would just sign every guy he wants to 10 year deals and then cut them after a few years?

 

[Da Guru]

LJ can play 2023 under the $32m tender.

According to LJ himself, he turned down 3y/$133m fully guaranteed = $44m average value.

So hypothetically, let's say LJ plays 2023 on the tender. He's losing out $12m compared to if he'd signed the contract.

Does anyone think a future deal he's likely to sign would make $12m more in future years than the contract he could have already had, to where he'd at least break even?

Who would ever thunk the day would come when a 26 year old football player would turn town 133 million guaranteed for 3 seasons.

 

[Yenrub]

Is it a ringing endorsement that he only gets hurt while in the pocket??

Seemed like Roman was stating a fact more so than endorsing.
Also goes against the narrative that Lamar’s “style of play” (aka running) has led to his injuries or will lead to future injuries.

 

[-OZ-]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

Seems like a better move imo to not make the guaranteed money a cap hit if the player gets injured or cut.
Let the player get their guaranteed money, while not weighing down the franchise unnecessarily. I don’t know if they’ll do that but it makes sense to me.

That won't work. It would basically mean no salary cap.
A team could sign Rodgers for 200 million guaranteed for 8 years, then cut him in two years, rinse repeat.

The cap would just apply to the players on the roster that year.
Maybe just for injury / retirement or a % for a cut.

I understand that.
But, do you understand that Jerry Jones would just sign every guy he wants to 10 year deals and then cut them after a few years?

I guess I’m willing to take that chance.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Is it a ringing endorsement that he only gets hurt while in the pocket??

Every QB statistically gets hurt more often in the pocket.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is overstated
...The bias against the running quarterback has endured from Bobby Douglass nearly posting 1,000 rushing yards in 1972 through Randall Cunningham’s four Pro Bowls in the 1080s and ‘90s, from Michael Vick’s dazzling (though abbreviated) stay in Atlanta to Cam Newton's MVP season in 2015.
Any injury to a quarterback with genuine running talent is treated as proof of his fragility — even if it occurs while he is performing the acceptable quarterbacking task of throwing from the pocket. Any injury to a pocket-based quarterback while he is in the pocket is summarily ignored...
...Research on NFL quarterback injuries compiled by injury coordinator John Verros at Sports Info Solutions shows the risk of a quarterback being injured on a designed run is remote — only one for every 236 plays.
The risk for a scrambling quarterback is almost equal to the quarterback who is sacked: once every 91.7 plays for the scrambler, once every 92.5 plays for the guy getting sacked.
The most dangerous play category Verros discovered is the knockdown; the quarterback who is taken to the ground while unleashing a pass, as when the Jaguars’ Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle after being struck while releasing a pass against the Chiefs. That player is hurt once every 67.3 plays...

 

[Grahamburn]

The point is he has been hurt. Does it matter how? The other point is a lot of his production, and what makes him truly dangerous, is his ability to run, which the effectiveness of will ultimately decline with continued injury and age.

Couple all of that with his contract demands and the picks? I’ll go out on a limb and say he won’t be playing any time soon unless he drastically changes how he values himself.

 

[Tau837]

I imagine Burrow will get his first huge deal well before any other team is able to offer him any contract terms. If the owners either collude or just each realize that fully guaranteed contracts are likely to cripple their teams when a guy falls off the cliff with guaranteed years left, they will continue to pay more annually to guys to avoid fully guaranteed later years. If a guy thinks he will stay healthy and has several years left, he will make more money with higher annual salaries if he plays for the higher rate for a similar length of time. Its all negotiation.

Any former NFL player will tell you that when you sign a contract, the only money that matters in the contract is the guaranteed portion.

There's 3 possibilities regarding his money if tragedy strikes
1- his plan doesn't work so he plays on the tag and gets a career ending injury, or sits out till week 10 and then gets a career ending injury. He earns somewhere between 15-34 million.

2- he signs a nice deal, let's say its the 133 million guaranteed. Earns whatever he earns

3- his plan works and he gets 200 million guaranteed, and earns whatever he earns.

Only one of those scenarios is "bad"
The smart man assures himself of the non bad scenario here.
Every ounce of logic says he stays in Baltimore and signs a "decent" deal. This should have happened last year.

I wonder if Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Hebert all ask for fully guaranteed contracts, will any of them get it? If they do, will that be the way QB contracts will be written going forward? I have to imagine if Joe Burrow wants a $200M fully guaranteed contract, Cincy is giving it to him or some other team will offer him one.

If I had to guess the goal for the Owner's is not offer any more fully guaranteed contracts to anyone...right now Watson can be seen as an outlier but once another one is given the gloves are fully off.

Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract so the Watson deal isn't the first. The NFL got away with that one, but Cleveland re-opened pandora's box again.

I wonder if this becomes an issue in the next CBA discussions or maybe they do a reduced/no cap hit for the QB position.

Seems like a better move imo to not make the guaranteed money a cap hit if the player gets injured or cut.
Let the player get their guaranteed money, while not weighing down the franchise unnecessarily. I don’t know if they’ll do that but it makes sense to me.

That won't work. It would basically mean no salary cap.
A team could sign Rodgers for 200 million guaranteed for 8 years, then cut him in two years, rinse repeat.

The cap would just apply to the players on the roster that year.
Maybe just for injury / retirement or a % for a cut.

I understand that.
But, do you understand that Jerry Jones would just sign every guy he wants to 10 year deals and then cut them after a few years?

I guess I’m willing to take that chance.

Glad you aren't in charge.

 

[Yenrub]

The point is he has been hurt. Does it matter how? The other point is a lot of his production, and what makes him truly dangerous, is his ability to run, which the effectiveness of will ultimately decline with continued injury and age.

Couple all of that with his contract demands and the picks? I’ll go out on a limb and say he won’t be playing any time soon unless he drastically changes how he values himself.

Sure as we get older we all tend to slow down. Lamar just turned 26 years old, when do you think he will "lose" his running ability?

 

[Chaka]

The point is he has been hurt. Does it matter how?

It kind of does when it it being used against him this way.

QBs get injured and are nowhere near a summarily discounted going forward.

 

[Chaka]

The point is he has been hurt. Does it matter how? The other point is a lot of his production, and what makes him truly dangerous, is his ability to run, which the effectiveness of will ultimately decline with continued injury and age.

Couple all of that with his contract demands and the picks? I’ll go out on a limb and say he won’t be playing any time soon unless he drastically changes how he values himself.

Sure as we get older we all tend to slow down. Lamar just turned 26 years old, when do you think he will "lose" his running ability?

3:36pm EDT

 

[humpback]

Is it a ringing endorsement that he only gets hurt while in the pocket??

Every QB statistically gets hurt more often in the pocket.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is overstated
...The bias against the running quarterback has endured from Bobby Douglass nearly posting 1,000 rushing yards in 1972 through Randall Cunningham’s four Pro Bowls in the 1080s and ‘90s, from Michael Vick’s dazzling (though abbreviated) stay in Atlanta to Cam Newton's MVP season in 2015.
Any injury to a quarterback with genuine running talent is treated as proof of his fragility — even if it occurs while he is performing the acceptable quarterbacking task of throwing from the pocket. Any injury to a pocket-based quarterback while he is in the pocket is summarily ignored...
...Research on NFL quarterback injuries compiled by injury coordinator John Verros at Sports Info Solutions shows the risk of a quarterback being injured on a designed run is remote — only one for every 236 plays.
The risk for a scrambling quarterback is almost equal to the quarterback who is sacked: once every 91.7 plays for the scrambler, once every 92.5 plays for the guy getting sacked.
The most dangerous play category Verros discovered is the knockdown; the quarterback who is taken to the ground while unleashing a pass, as when the Jaguars’ Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle after being struck while releasing a pass against the Chiefs. That player is hurt once every 67.3 plays...

You've posted this same tweet multiple times, and it's disingenuous.

I've yet to find robust data on it, but obviously QBs are more likely to get hurt in the pocket since they are in the pocket far more often than they are not.

The data I've seen, even from a source trying to "debunk the myth", shows that the rate of injury out of the pocket is more than double in the pocket. More important than where the play happens is how it happens- the rate for designed runs is almost 2 1/2 times that of non-designed runs, scrambles are almost 4X, sacks are 5X, and knockdowns are 5.5X. Lamar is at or near the top of the league in every one of those "riskier" categories.

And those saying "Both of Lamar's injuries came while he was in the pocket" are wrong, the ankle injury occurred while trying to avoid the rush outside the pocket when he was "taken to the ground while unleashing a pass".

Again, how/how often you get hit is far more relevant than where you are on the field when they happen.

 

[Grahamburn]

The point is he has been hurt. Does it matter how? The other point is a lot of his production, and what makes him truly dangerous, is his ability to run, which the effectiveness of will ultimately decline with continued injury and age.

Couple all of that with his contract demands and the picks? I’ll go out on a limb and say he won’t be playing any time soon unless he drastically changes how he values himself.

Sure as we get older we all tend to slow down. Lamar just turned 26 years old, when do you think he will "lose" his running ability?

The ability he has now to basically be a RB? 3 years.

 

[Tau837]

QBs get injured and are nowhere near a summarily discounted going forward.

Is there much of a sample size of QBs who missed several games to close two seasons in a row before being in position to sign a market-driven contract? Maybe I'm forgetting some, but I can't think of any off the top of my head. Even if there are a few, a few is not much of a sample size, and I would guess any such examples mostly occurred in contexts different enough to make this a unique case.

Like I said, maybe there are examples. Do you have any?

 

[Bracie Smathers]

You've posted this same tweet multiple times, and it's disingenuous.

You've repeated your opinion over and over again. Your opinion is far from ingenuous but who really cares.