NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
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QB Tom Brady, TB (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ComfortablyNumb
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
I honestly don't see how Brady, an aging WR coming off of injury, and the constantly enfeebled Hunter Henry will bring any New Year's joy next year, but that's okay.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not to mention that they would all have to play for 50 cents on the dollar. The Pats don’t have that kind of $$$ in cap space to roster those guys.
rockaction
Footballguy
Huh. Pats seem to be in a bind. They've got to pay a guy who is obviously not happy with his weapons and publicly denounces them, yet at the same time his contract will prevent him from getting what he publicly asks for. Sounds like a rock and a hard place for the org.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Which is why I theorized if they were to bring in a receiver, it would be similar to the Brandin Cooks trade from a few years ago. A young guy still on his rookie deal with a 5th year option. They are not in position to trade for a big contract like OBJ. Their other wing and a prayer would be getting Gronk to come back. He had a below market year left on his contract. If he missed playing, maybe they would not have to break the bank to get him back.
They could also trade for someone under the radar that might work in their system (think Wes Welker) who may be underpaid. Same thing at TE. But they don’t really have the resources to sign a premium free agent (at least not without other moves).
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Gronk is busy with more important projects such as being on The Masked Singer.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It really doesn't make much sense for Brady to go anywhere but return to New England. Well outside of Indianapolis but I just have a tough time seeing that happen. Las Vegas would make some sense as well but the only reason he would be doing that is for the money as his brand - they're surely not winning a Super Bowl in the near future, even if Brady wasn't in any form of decline.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Raiders chargers Broncos and colts would all make some sense and i love that all their fans secretly want Brady and aren't going to get him.
Watch Brady shock us all, take a $10 mil a year contract to squeeze those two in and make it work.
Tau837
Footballguy
Chargers fans don’t want Brady, secretly or otherwise. And he doesn’t make sense for them if you go more than a centimeter deep from surface level.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Secretly? I’ve heard there’s rallies set up in all those cities (not Denver) plus others for their teams to sign Brady.
I’d kind of like to see him land on the Colts out of curiosity on what he/they would do and what the Pats would look like without him - but I’m fairly sure he ends up back in New England.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Mike Lombardi on his podcast listed the cities holding rallys for Tom Brady and said LA, LV, Chicago and Miami - not sure how true it is but there’s more fans out there than just the ones that hang out on FBG.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, Brady is not going anywhere for the money unless it is an insane over pay (and probably not even them). Two years and $60 million is not even close to huge money. He and his wife are worth $600 million. Insane money would be something like five years, $200 million all guaranteed ( which no one will be offering).
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Anarchy99
Footballguy
$60 million to sign Brady is not much money. Bill Barnwell on ESPN had an article this week outlining some scenarios involving Brady. One was to CHI for 4 years and $110 million. One was to LAC for 5 years and $180 million. Another was 4 years and $160 million from IND. I can’t speak to where he came up with those numbers, but those are way more than $60 million. I don’t think teams will shell out that much AAV or that many years, but it only takes one team to have a man crush. Even so, Brady would have to want to go there.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
The Pats brass (other than Kraft) may not even want Brady. I know I wouldn't at this stage of his career. So yes, Brady could end up feeling disrespected and take the Raiders offer.
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The only thing I'd add regarding Brady's potential payday, and why it might be a lot higher then some people think, is that teams are not paying for just the player and his performance on the field, that might not even be the main thing. Teams like Chargers and Raiders want a box office draw but beyond that almost every team would put a massive value on the culture they think he could help create. Teams keep hiring ex-NE coaches who all try and instill the Patriot Way when in fact no player or coach in the league other then Bellichick may be better suited to do that then Brady.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think his culture building is very over rated....he wont be doing extra WR practice or grooming some young QB......
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So why wouldn’t Brady just play for the vet minimum and let the team stack up the offense? I’m sure money will play some part. Even rich people like to make more money. I do agree he’ll likely end up in NE but it’s not as simple as you’re making it here.
Tau837
Footballguy
We'd obviously not agree on the impact of his leadership and tone his work ethic and standards would set.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Because I highly doubt the Raiders are the ones coming out and saying what their offer is. Besides, NE at this point would rather teams talk to Brady now rather than having to wait until the legal tampering period. They are under the gun to get him signed by 3/18 for cap reasons. If they wait until the legal tampering period, that would only give them 2 days to have Brady talk to teams officially and have the Patriots be able to counter.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You've probably already given the answer and I haven't read it, but for you personally, would you rather the Patriots move on from Brady now, or not, and why?
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, Brady should be looked at as an average QB at this point (and unlikely to see his skills improving any unless he was way more hurt than was reported last season). Even if we say he is a little better than he showed last season, he still has a short shelf life and there really isn't a lot to point to in terms of top producing 43-year-old QB's in the history of the league.
A lot will depend on how much Brady wants to get paid. If he wants to play for low dollars, then he's probably at least an ok option for 2020 in NE, provided they keep the core of the defense together and give Brady a few more weapons. That being said, I would rather they took the money they gave Brady and invest it elsewhere and roll with either Stidham or a much cheaper alternative to Brady (again, if Brady wants top dollar).
The main issue I have is that I have a hard time seeing the math work in keeping Brady and upgrading the rest of the offense. Depending who's numbers you want to look at, the Pats have $41-48 million in cap space for 2020. If Brady isn't resigned by 3/18, NE will have to eat a $13.5 million cap hit (whether they end up bringing him back or not). If they can extend him before then, they can roll over and split up that cap hit over multiple seasons. Spotrac has them with $44 million of cap space (allocating Brady with a $6.75 million cap hit). So by their math, if the second half of that cap hit gets instituted, they would be down to about $37 million. They may or may not recoup some cap space from the AB fiasco, but that will be adjudicated in the off season.
Besides Brady, the Pats have a number of other free agents including Kyle Van Noy (likely gone), Joe Thuney (likely gone), Jamie Collins, Devin McCourty (probably back at under market), Matthew Slater, Philip Dorsett, Nate Ebner, Danny Shelton, Adam Butler, Ted Karras, and Elandon Roberts (and some other smaller pieces). But trading their second round pick for Sanu doesn't look like a great maneuver at this stage.
The point being, if they bring in Brady for $30 million a year AFTER 3/18, he would count $43.5 million against the cap this season (which would be $6.5 million over the cap). But somehow they would be able to get upgrades on offense and sign or replace the guys I just listed? I just don't see them being able to upgrade the offense and bring back Brady unless they let their free agents go, rework a lot of contracts, or find guys willing to come to town for way below market.
That's why I mentioned earlier that they might be in on Alex Smith once the Redskins decide to move on from him (assuming he is healthy enough to play). If my research is right (and the information is correct), I believe WAS can get out of his 2020 salary if they release him by 3/17 if he passes a physical. He would likely be dirt cheap and could be a decent / safe option until Stidham is ready. I am not well-versed enough to know what the Redskins cap hit would be after all of that (and if it would make sense for them to cut him).
So to me NE has two options. Bring back Brady and go all in to try to build up the team in the short term (a year or two max), meaning they trade a bunch of draft picks to improve the team and push a lot of cap hits down the road for a chance to win NOW. Or they move on from Brady and build up the rest of the roster and hope they either sign or draft a competent QB (or hope that Stidham is adequate). But there is always a chance (slim as it may be) that TB12 comes back for like $10 million to allow the team to bring in some other players.
To answer your question, I would be fine if they moved on from Brady provided they had new blood and some upgrades elsewhere. I could live with more of Brady if he came cheaply. But to pay Brady as a Top 5 QB for multiple seasons at this point seems like the wrong way to go.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I haven’t seen Flacco play in a long time. But at one point I thought he was a decent deep ball passer and NE doesn’t really have a deep threat. I am sure NE would explore a lot of options and Plan B’s for life after Brady. One would expect that they would kick the tires on a bunch of guys.
Hot Diggity Dog
Footballguy
I dont think any large group Broncos fans is pining for Brady. Makes no sense for them unless Brady will be a back up and help Lock. Teams that think they have a Super Bowl window maybe, but the fact Chargers and Raiders are delusional if they think they are serious Super Bowl contenders being in the same division as the Chiefs. If I'm Brady I'm looking for a team in an easy division to win.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Agree on Denver.
Chargers and Raiders are in play but only in a cynical "filling the stadium" context.
I think Vrabel is probably struggling with "do I trust Tannehill?".
I think the Colts and Bucs could have factions in their organization that buy Brady as the missing piece narrative.
But in the end I'm guessing he stays in NE.
Because they still have $86M to spend, can if they want, and lose all of Jacoby's contract after this year. Would end up just being one highly expensive QB room for 2020 but I fail to see rational if they think Jacoby was a failed sunk cost to not upgrade when they can.
Saying that I read work from several Colts beat writers. Almost everyone else is connecting the dots on Rivers to Colts but every single one of those beat writers think the Colts will draft a QB before they sign someone like Rivers.
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Tau837
Footballguy
IND has $86M in available 2020 cap space, and they could clear another $9M by releasing Brissett; they could release Brissett, sign Brady or Rivers for $25M in 2020 cap hit, and still have $70M to spend to improve the roster for a Super Bowl shot.
Understand the point on the beat writers, but, as relates to Rivers vs. Brady for the Colts:
- The Colts have a pretty strong connection to Rivers. HC Reich was his QB coach in 2013 and OC in 2014-2015. OC Sirianni was a Chargers offensive coach from 2013-2017, including QB coach for 2 seasons.
- There was a pretty strong Colts-Pats rivalry while Brady was the Pats QB.
- Rivers is ~5 years younger than Brady.
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I agree and I'm also someone who keeps connecting the dots to Rivers in IND. Those beat writers are making me second guess myself but to hard to not see it make sense.
Also at pick 13 I'd think it's hard for the Colts to think they can just sit back and draft a QB and have any kind of idea who would be available.
Tau837
Footballguy
And they could clear ~$16M by trading Brissett. So they could trade him for virtually nothing just to gain another $7M in 2020 cap space.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am not sure on some of the math with Brissett. He is due a $7 million bonus on 3/22. IIRC, whichever team has him on that day would have to pay him that amount (and take the cap hit). If he is released prior to 6/1, IND would take a $12.5 million cap hit to realize $8.875 million in cap relief. If he is traded before 6/1, IND would take a $5.5 million cap hit but save $15.875 million against the cap. That's what I see listed on Spotrac, but I think the dates are wrong. I believe the proper date would be 3/22 for the difference in cap savings (due to the guaranteed bonus involved) . . . unless somehow the acquiring team would be stuck with the $7 million in guaranteed money (if the trade is completed past 3/22 but before 6/1).
Regardless of that, the question becomes how much (or little) Brady would add to the Colts offense vs. Brissett, Rivers, or whomever else is under consideration. While they certainly could afford (and have the cap room) to bring in Brady, would he really help them all that much?
Regardless of that, the question becomes how much (or little) Brady would add to the Colts offense vs. Brissett, Rivers, or whomever else is under consideration. While they certainly could afford (and have the cap room) to bring in Brady, would he really help them all that much?
-OZ-
Footballguy
Rivers makes more sense than Brady as a bridge.
I don't think I'd sign Brady over flacco, Dalton, cam, Rivers, or Bridgewater. Probably others I'm not considering.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Haven't you been one of the most vocal people blaming the Pats o-line and weapons for Brady's struggles? Wouldn't the Colts top level o-line, TY Hilton, Jack Doyle and $86MM to add parts be a tremendous upgrade around Brady?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I've been pretty vocal about saying Brady is in decline but he's still better than all of those guys (as a passer) and comes with a tremendous amount of playoff experience.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have been vocal that if other top QBs had played in place of Brady in NE last season, their numbers would have been much lower than their normal numbers. IMO, Brady is smack dab in the middle of starting QB's and should be considered "average." I don't think he offers much more than Brissett does at this stage.
One thing we don't know is how Brady would adapt to a whole new world. New players, new coaches, new system, new plays, no familiar faces, no one with a shared history, etc. The last few years, Brady has practiced about as little as possible. He only showed up for things that were mandatory, skipped anything voluntary, and missed a ton of in season practice time. Going to a new team in a new environment, I am not sure that plan would be best for his new team. Combine that with his age and declining skills, and I am not sure Brady would add much to a lot of teams.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You're trying to get too cute here and play semantics - because the bolded would also mean Brady's numbers would have been better if he was in those "other top QBs" situations. You can't only have it one way. The Colts would surely be a better situation, and by your standard Brissett was propped up by his situation and would have been worse in New England. Brady is clearly a better QB than Brissett who was very poor last season by all metrics.
As far as your second paragraph - if Brady made the decision to go elsewhere I think we should assume he would put in the work to get up too speed and make it work. If he's truly unhappy and felt disrespected in NE (and you posted an article a month back portraying how disrespected he felt and how insecure he is) maybe he just went through the motions because of said unhappiness.
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