QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Trevor Lawrence Yards & TDs This Season: Passing Odds

 

[FarFromHome]

For some reason I still believe in this kid. Time to back off the coaching a bit and just have him let it rip. He has weapons.

 

[warpig33]

For some reason I still believe in this kid. Time to back off the coaching a bit and just have him let it rip. He has weapons.

I'm a jags fan . I have zero faith in him. He's shown absolutely nothing that will elevate his team. Not a leader, not smart enough to audible. He's had weapons for several years. Other than Hunter, they didn't really improve any where. They lost Engram and replaced him with...Strange. He's an overhyped game manager.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For some reason I still believe in this kid. Time to back off the coaching a bit and just have him let it rip. He has weapons.

I traded a bounty for him 2 years ago, seeing him as the next Paintin Manning.

I don’t even think he’s the next Eli Manning at this point.

I may be off, but because of my investment I’ve watched an inordinate amount of Jags games, and he just seems to be missing something. It’s like the pro game is still a little too fast for him, when it seems like it should have slowed down by now. He misses too many bunnies, doesn’t see open receivers at times, and doesn’t have much in the way of scrambling to make up for it with his legs.

I sold him for Baker + 2 picks and I was surprised I was the side getting picks. Despite getting 4 years older, I have no regrets.

I’ll say this - if he’s going to turn the corner, this should be the year for it. BTJ & Hunter should be more than enough for him to find success. And if it isn’t this year, I’m not sure it ever will be.

 

[FarFromHome]

Crazy he is only 25. Feels like he had battles with Drew Brees

 

[zed2283]

I drafted him as a rookie along with Etienne, so I've watched a decent number of Jags games since they came into the league. I have very little faith in Lawrence or the Jags.

 

[Biabreakable]

Glad we're past the dark days of everyone here pretending like Lawrence was in a loaded offense with guys like Christian Kirk & Calvin Ridley being hyped as legitimate WR1's.

Those WR are very good and certainly good enough for a good QB to function.

Lawrence has been Meh with good talent around him.

His completion percentage dropped about 5% last season without Kirk and Engram to prop it up.

Ridley performed just as well with Will Levis as he did with Lawrence.

I'm tired of the excuses and to think Lawrence hasn't had good receivers is not accurate.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Crazy he is only 25. Feels like he had battles with Drew Brees

Same high school recruiting class as rookie Tyler Shough

 

[jm192]

I think he's in for a career year.

The breakout of BTJ+the drafting of Hunter. He's got the best weapons he's ever had.

I think Coen is a great offensive minded coach, and will get the most out of the players they have. I think that will make a huge difference. You look at Baker's career turnaround after he got to play for Canales and then Coen. The right coach/system makes a huge difference.

I like the whole offense. I think ETN bounces back in a big way. BTJ is obviously a WR1 and could finish top 5. I think Hunter could finish as a WR2. You look at how Coen used Godwin in TB last year. I think it's a really undervalued offense.

I understand the frustration. But I also think that leads to a discount people are going to wish they took advantage of.

 

[Pipes]

Glad we're past the dark days of everyone here pretending like Lawrence was in a loaded offense with guys like Christian Kirk & Calvin Ridley being hyped as legitimate WR1's.

Those WR are very good and certainly good enough for a good QB to function.

Lawrence has been Meh with good talent around him.

His completion percentage dropped about 5% last season without Kirk and Engram to prop it up.

Ridley performed just as well with Will Levis as he did with Lawrence.

I'm tired of the excuses and to think Lawrence hasn't had good receivers is not accurate.

Same. Was big on him after his monster 2nd half of 2022 thought he was the next coming. He's been ok just nothing spectacular. Not what one would expect from the most hyped QB drafted since Andrew Luck. With Trevor's running figured he was a lock as a top 5 maybe top 10 QB at worst. Even games when he's been healthy he's just been ok. I just can't do it anymore and with the QB depth out there now I'm looking elsewhere.

 

[pinkstapler]

I think he's in for a career year.

The breakout of BTJ+the drafting of Hunter. He's got the best weapons he's ever had.

I think Coen is a great offensive minded coach, and will get the most out of the players they have. I think that will make a huge difference. You look at Baker's career turnaround after he got to play for Canales and then Coen. The right coach/system makes a huge difference.

I like the whole offense. I think ETN bounces back in a big way. BTJ is obviously a WR1 and could finish top 5. I think Hunter could finish as a WR2. You look at how Coen used Godwin in TB last year. I think it's a really undervalued offense.

I understand the frustration. But I also think that leads to a discount people are going to wish they took advantage of.

Yeah you'd think the guy was barely eeking out QB2 numbers the way he's talked about. But finished as QB8, QB13, and was on pace last season to finish QB11 before the injury. You take out the QBs who are rushing for 500+ yards every season, because he's not one and never been one (which is why I also find it kind of funny anyone expected him to ever be the true QB1 in fantasy even coming out of college) and he's basically been playing as a top 6 non-rushing fantasy QB. On a literal dumpster fire of a team. IDC how much people wanna blow up Christian Kirk lol, his team has been absolute trash from the top to the bottom since he came in. And ultimately, the top matters much much more. We've seen plenty of teams peform above expectations with subpar rosters but excellent coaching staffs. I have a hard time recalling too many that were able to do the opposite. Urban Meyer would very likely get voted as the ABSOLUTE WORST HC any rookie has had to walk into in the past decade. Fields had it better with the Bears his rookie season that TLaw did.

I'm done debating it because people are just entrenched in their opinions at this point. I know I am. I can't wait for this season to just see where it lands. I think it's insane he's currently QB19 in redraft, and I will smash accept anyone who's interested in laying some $$ on these "Eli was better"/"he's washed"/"game manager" takes. Of course this is when the goal posts get moved and suddenly someone will want an O/U on QB12 finish for a guy they just called worse than Eli and that they wouldn't touch at his QB19 ADP

Someone who's mind ISN'T already made up, and wants a non-msg board opinion on how Lawrence has actually been performing despite his situation these past few seasons; lot's of sources out there but one I recommend JT O'Sullivan's YouTube page called "The QB School". He played in the NFL, is highly regarded in the industry, and breaks down film from a technical standpoint but makes it easier to digest for the lay person. Been watching, and trying to pick up stuff, from his page on QBs to help me draft for several years now. Not the be all end all, but another really good tool for the box.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think he's in for a career year.

The breakout of BTJ+the drafting of Hunter. He's got the best weapons he's ever had.

I think Coen is a great offensive minded coach, and will get the most out of the players they have. I think that will make a huge difference. You look at Baker's career turnaround after he got to play for Canales and then Coen. The right coach/system makes a huge difference.

I like the whole offense. I think ETN bounces back in a big way. BTJ is obviously a WR1 and could finish top 5. I think Hunter could finish as a WR2. You look at how Coen used Godwin in TB last year. I think it's a really undervalued offense.

I understand the frustration. But I also think that leads to a discount people are going to wish they took advantage of.

I’ve said it up-thread, but Coen didn’t pull Baker Mayfield off the trash heap and make him great. Mayfield had a fantastic year the season before Coen arrived, with fewer weapons.

Chicken & the egg as to whether Mayfield’s incremental improvements were due to Coen’s genius or the emergence of Bucky & the addition of McMillan & for a stretch, Otton.

Mayfield carried that offense through multiple injuries - I guess I just don’t give Coen as much credit for that as say, Darnold with KOC.

There’s a greater than zero chance that the Coen narrative is a false conclusion & he doesn’t significantly impact that Jags offense. It will likely be improved, just because Doug Pederson wasn’t great.

I’m a bit skeptical that TLaw is massively improved. Also ETN looked terrible last year & he was healthy, so that’s another concern.

Time will tell. I believe the narrative that Coen is a great offensive mind who will completely reshape the competence of the Jags offense to be a bit overblown. But again, I could be wrong.

I own no shares of JAX in dynasty, and I’m pretty happy about that.

 

[JohnnyU]

Rank these QBs for 2025 and beyond

Trevor Lawrence
Brock Purdy
Michael Penix
Jordan Love

 

[Big Nate]

Rank these QBs for 2025 and beyond

Trevor Lawrence
Brock Purdy
Michael Penix
Jordan Love

For 2025 Here is how I feel they will end in order of best to last (assuming health):

Love, TLaw, Purdy and Penix (and I do like Penix but he has to show it for a full season). My only concern with Purdy is lack of weapons if CMC doesn't play a full year and Aiyuk isn't 100% healthy.

The wild thing is Love is the oldest at 26 - rest are still 25.

Long term:
Love, Tlaw, Penix, Purdy

I think Purdy is a very good QB but needs the system and players to be healthy. Most QBs do so that isn't a knock and why Tlaw is higher for me - he has the weapons this year. Love does too.

These are all good QBs to own in dynasty and they are all very close for me. I would be happy to own any of them.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Glad we're past the dark days of everyone here pretending like Lawrence was in a loaded offense with guys like Christian Kirk & Calvin Ridley being hyped as legitimate WR1's.

Those WR are very good and certainly good enough for a good QB to function.

Lawrence has been Meh with good talent around him.

His completion percentage dropped about 5% last season without Kirk and Engram to prop it up.

Ridley performed just as well with Will Levis as he did with Lawrence.

I'm tired of the excuses and to think Lawrence hasn't had good receivers is not accurate.

Hey man, if 1 1000 season from Kirk in 7 years is a satisfactory #1 WR, more power to ya.

 

[jm192]

I think he's in for a career year.

The breakout of BTJ+the drafting of Hunter. He's got the best weapons he's ever had.

I think Coen is a great offensive minded coach, and will get the most out of the players they have. I think that will make a huge difference. You look at Baker's career turnaround after he got to play for Canales and then Coen. The right coach/system makes a huge difference.

I like the whole offense. I think ETN bounces back in a big way. BTJ is obviously a WR1 and could finish top 5. I think Hunter could finish as a WR2. You look at how Coen used Godwin in TB last year. I think it's a really undervalued offense.

I understand the frustration. But I also think that leads to a discount people are going to wish they took advantage of.

I’ve said it up-thread, but Coen didn’t pull Baker Mayfield off the trash heap and make him great. Mayfield had a fantastic year the season before Coen arrived, with fewer weapons.

Chicken & the egg as to whether Mayfield’s incremental improvements were due to Coen’s genius or the emergence of Bucky & the addition of McMillan & for a stretch, Otton.

Mayfield carried that offense through multiple injuries - I guess I just don’t give Coen as much credit for that as say, Darnold with KOC.

There’s a greater than zero chance that the Coen narrative is a false conclusion & he doesn’t significantly impact that Jags offense. It will likely be improved, just because Doug Pederson wasn’t great.

I’m a bit skeptical that TLaw is massively improved. Also ETN looked terrible last year & he was healthy, so that’s another concern.

Time will tell. I believe the narrative that Coen is a great offensive mind who will completely reshape the competence of the Jags offense to be a bit overblown. But again, I could be wrong.

I own no shares of JAX in dynasty, and I’m pretty happy about that.

Sure. I intentionally included Canales.

You seem to really be weary of the Coen aspect, and that is fair. I don't want my entire argument to be seen as Coen=QB God. I think he's a good offensive coach. (You even agree he's an upgrade over Pederson). I think Lawrence has the most talented pass catching group he's ever had.

I don't mean to or want to give Coen credit for Baker's turnaround. There's 2 Baker talking points.

1. Baker was able to become a fantasy QB1 after years of disappointment. So was Darnold. So was Geno. Lawrence was a much more highly heralded prospect coming out. If Baker, Geno, and Darnold can change situations, coaching staffs and become good fantasy QB's after years of disappointment: so can Lawrence.

2. Baker was even better under Coen. Baker threw for nearly 500 more yards and 13 more TD's under Coen than the year before. He only threw the ball 4 more times. We can certainly argue what could have or would have happened without Coen. But it was a very good offense. Even better than he found it. And while we can cite the talent: Part of the success is using the talent correctly. Godwin was moved back to the slot. Bucky was used to his strengths.

For the sake of argument, I can concede the talent is what mattered most for Baker. And we can take Coen out of it. Baker went from a washed up OBJ and some guys I can't remember in Cleveland. Evans and Godwin would help any QB.

Lawrence went from Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk to BTJ and now Travis Hunter. I see Hunter as a more explosive Godwin in this offense.

I think injuries hampered Etienne. I think he's probably better just by virtue of being healthy. I also think he's better under Coen being used like Bucky.

TLDR: We both agree Coen is some degree of an offensive coach upgrade compared to Pederson. The Jaguars have upgraded the offensive firepower around him. And we've seen less heralded QB's go from zero's to hero's over the past 5 years.

 

[Yenrub]

Glad we're past the dark days of everyone here pretending like Lawrence was in a loaded offense with guys like Christian Kirk & Calvin Ridley being hyped as legitimate WR1's.

Those WR are very good and certainly good enough for a good QB to function.

Lawrence has been Meh with good talent around him.

His completion percentage dropped about 5% last season without Kirk and Engram to prop it up.

Ridley performed just as well with Will Levis as he did with Lawrence.

I'm tired of the excuses and to think Lawrence hasn't had good receivers is not accurate.

Hey man, if 1 1000 season from Kirk in 7 years is a satisfactory #1 WR, more power to ya.

Kirk led the Jags WR/TE in targets once in the three seasons he was there. 2022 he led the team in targets with 84. His other two seasons 23 and 24 he was 3rd and 4th in targets on the team.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think he's in for a career year.

The breakout of BTJ+the drafting of Hunter. He's got the best weapons he's ever had.

I think Coen is a great offensive minded coach, and will get the most out of the players they have. I think that will make a huge difference. You look at Baker's career turnaround after he got to play for Canales and then Coen. The right coach/system makes a huge difference.

I like the whole offense. I think ETN bounces back in a big way. BTJ is obviously a WR1 and could finish top 5. I think Hunter could finish as a WR2. You look at how Coen used Godwin in TB last year. I think it's a really undervalued offense.

I understand the frustration. But I also think that leads to a discount people are going to wish they took advantage of.

I’ve said it up-thread, but Coen didn’t pull Baker Mayfield off the trash heap and make him great. Mayfield had a fantastic year the season before Coen arrived, with fewer weapons.

Chicken & the egg as to whether Mayfield’s incremental improvements were due to Coen’s genius or the emergence of Bucky & the addition of McMillan & for a stretch, Otton.

Mayfield carried that offense through multiple injuries - I guess I just don’t give Coen as much credit for that as say, Darnold with KOC.

There’s a greater than zero chance that the Coen narrative is a false conclusion & he doesn’t significantly impact that Jags offense. It will likely be improved, just because Doug Pederson wasn’t great.

I’m a bit skeptical that TLaw is massively improved. Also ETN looked terrible last year & he was healthy, so that’s another concern.

Time will tell. I believe the narrative that Coen is a great offensive mind who will completely reshape the competence of the Jags offense to be a bit overblown. But again, I could be wrong.

I own no shares of JAX in dynasty, and I’m pretty happy about that.

Sure. I intentionally included Canales.

You seem to really be weary of the Coen aspect, and that is fair. I don't want my entire argument to be seen as Coen=QB God. I think he's a good offensive coach. (You even agree he's an upgrade over Pederson). I think Lawrence has the most talented pass catching group he's ever had.

I don't mean to or want to give Coen credit for Baker's turnaround. There's 2 Baker talking points.

1. Baker was able to become a fantasy QB1 after years of disappointment. So was Darnold. So was Geno. Lawrence was a much more highly heralded prospect coming out. If Baker, Geno, and Darnold can change situations, coaching staffs and become good fantasy QB's after years of disappointment: so can Lawrence.

2. Baker was even better under Coen. Baker threw for nearly 500 more yards and 13 more TD's under Coen than the year before. He only threw the ball 4 more times. We can certainly argue what could have or would have happened without Coen. But it was a very good offense. Even better than he found it. And while we can cite the talent: Part of the success is using the talent correctly. Godwin was moved back to the slot. Bucky was used to his strengths.

For the sake of argument, I can concede the talent is what mattered most for Baker. And we can take Coen out of it. Baker went from a washed up OBJ and some guys I can't remember in Cleveland. Evans and Godwin would help any QB.

Lawrence went from Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk to BTJ and now Travis Hunter. I see Hunter as a more explosive Godwin in this offense.

I think injuries hampered Etienne. I think he's probably better just by virtue of being healthy. I also think he's better under Coen being used like Bucky.

TLDR: We both agree Coen is some degree of an offensive coach upgrade compared to Pederson. The Jaguars have upgraded the offensive firepower around him. And we've seen less heralded QB's go from zero's to hero's over the past 5 years.

No argument on any of this. And it’s not that I’m dismissing Coen. I’m just not ready to give Coen credit for Mayfield’s success as a lot of folks seem to do because Mayfield already had that success before Coen.

Mike Evans only played 14 games last season. Godwin got hurt, too. Baker didn’t miss a beat.

I fully believe that TLaw has the chance to make significant improvements under Coen, who I absolutely see as an upgrade over Pederson. I’m just not sure if TLaw will rise to the occasion.

I’ve watched him a lot - I fear he’s developed some bad habits. And he’s taken some big hits - he missed 4 games with the AC joint. Non-throwing shoulder, but with his play style he takes some hits. He’s also had issues with multiple concussions, a high ankle sprain, and at least 2 other AC joint injuries that I can recall. Also a cervical / neck issue & toe sprains IIRC?

The dude has gotten hurt every single year I’ve rostered him - I was happy to move off of him. I know QB is a dangerous position, but he seems to get banged up more than most.

JAX made some efforts to improve their OL in FA & the draft - I guess time will tell if they’re able to better protect Lawrence.

For shareholders I hope he makes the improvements that are anticipated. I’m not likely to be a buyer. I have a 12-team dynasty SF start-up coming up & he’s not someone I’m targeting.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think he's in for a career year.

The breakout of BTJ+the drafting of Hunter. He's got the best weapons he's ever had.

I think Coen is a great offensive minded coach, and will get the most out of the players they have. I think that will make a huge difference. You look at Baker's career turnaround after he got to play for Canales and then Coen. The right coach/system makes a huge difference.

I like the whole offense. I think ETN bounces back in a big way. BTJ is obviously a WR1 and could finish top 5. I think Hunter could finish as a WR2. You look at how Coen used Godwin in TB last year. I think it's a really undervalued offense.

I understand the frustration. But I also think that leads to a discount people are going to wish they took advantage of.

Yeah you'd think the guy was barely eeking out QB2 numbers the way he's talked about. But finished as QB8, QB13, and was on pace last season to finish QB11 before the injury. You take out the QBs who are rushing for 500+ yards every season, because he's not one and never been one (which is why I also find it kind of funny anyone expected him to ever be the true QB1 in fantasy even coming out of college) and he's basically been playing as a top 6 non-rushing fantasy QB. On a literal dumpster fire of a team. IDC how much people wanna blow up Christian Kirk lol, his team has been absolute trash from the top to the bottom since he came in. And ultimately, the top matters much much more. We've seen plenty of teams peform above expectations with subpar rosters but excellent coaching staffs. I have a hard time recalling too many that were able to do the opposite. Urban Meyer would very likely get voted as the ABSOLUTE WORST HC any rookie has had to walk into in the past decade. Fields had it better with the Bears his rookie season that TLaw did.

I'm done debating it because people are just entrenched in their opinions at this point. I know I am. I can't wait for this season to just see where it lands. I think it's insane he's currently QB19 in redraft, and I will smash accept anyone who's interested in laying some $$ on these "Eli was better"/"he's washed"/"game manager" takes. Of course this is when the goal posts get moved and suddenly someone will want an O/U on QB12 finish for a guy they just called worse than Eli and that they wouldn't touch at his QB19 ADP

Someone who's mind ISN'T already made up, and wants a non-msg board opinion on how Lawrence has actually been performing despite his situation these past few seasons; lot's of sources out there but one I recommend JT O'Sullivan's YouTube page called "The QB School". He played in the NFL, is highly regarded in the industry, and breaks down film from a technical standpoint but makes it easier to digest for the lay person. Been watching, and trying to pick up stuff, from his page on QBs to help me draft for several years now. Not the be all end all, but another really good tool for the box.

In 2022 (his best fantasy season so far PPG) he finished as QB 9 if you include QB who played 12 or more games. He scored 5 rushing TD which helped a lot. 3 QB below him were within 1 point per game and 3 after that were less than 2 points per game behind him. So he was in the QB 2 tier at 18.1 points per game.

Receivers were Evan Egram, Christian Kirk, 32 year old Marvin Jones and Zay Jones who actually had 82 receptions.

In 2023 he was QB 13 in PPG by the same criteria. Kirk Cousins was better than Lawrence but only played 8 games. 17.2 PPG.

Receivers were Evan Engram Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk. Kirk only played 12 games. Zay Jones played in 7 games.

2024 Lawrence was QB 25 in PPG at 14.1 if we take out the QBs ahead of him who played less than 12 games. This is not on pace to finish as a QB 2. Its QB 3 numbers.

Receivers were Brian Thomas Evan Engram Christian Kirk. Engram and Kirk only played about half the games though.

So will drafting Hunter be an upgrade over injured Kirk and Engram? Sure maybe and Lawrence should be a QB 2 again.

Big deal.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

I think he's in for a career year.

The breakout of BTJ+the drafting of Hunter. He's got the best weapons he's ever had.

I think Coen is a great offensive minded coach, and will get the most out of the players they have. I think that will make a huge difference. You look at Baker's career turnaround after he got to play for Canales and then Coen. The right coach/system makes a huge difference.

I like the whole offense. I think ETN bounces back in a big way. BTJ is obviously a WR1 and could finish top 5. I think Hunter could finish as a WR2. You look at how Coen used Godwin in TB last year. I think it's a really undervalued offense.

I understand the frustration. But I also think that leads to a discount people are going to wish they took advantage of.

Yeah you'd think the guy was barely eeking out QB2 numbers the way he's talked about. But finished as QB8, QB13, and was on pace last season to finish QB11 before the injury. You take out the QBs who are rushing for 500+ yards every season, because he's not one and never been one (which is why I also find it kind of funny anyone expected him to ever be the true QB1 in fantasy even coming out of college) and he's basically been playing as a top 6 non-rushing fantasy QB. On a literal dumpster fire of a team. IDC how much people wanna blow up Christian Kirk lol, his team has been absolute trash from the top to the bottom since he came in. And ultimately, the top matters much much more. We've seen plenty of teams peform above expectations with subpar rosters but excellent coaching staffs. I have a hard time recalling too many that were able to do the opposite. Urban Meyer would very likely get voted as the ABSOLUTE WORST HC any rookie has had to walk into in the past decade. Fields had it better with the Bears his rookie season that TLaw did.

I'm done debating it because people are just entrenched in their opinions at this point. I know I am. I can't wait for this season to just see where it lands. I think it's insane he's currently QB19 in redraft, and I will smash accept anyone who's interested in laying some $$ on these "Eli was better"/"he's washed"/"game manager" takes. Of course this is when the goal posts get moved and suddenly someone will want an O/U on QB12 finish for a guy they just called worse than Eli and that they wouldn't touch at his QB19 ADP

Someone who's mind ISN'T already made up, and wants a non-msg board opinion on how Lawrence has actually been performing despite his situation these past few seasons; lot's of sources out there but one I recommend JT O'Sullivan's YouTube page called "The QB School". He played in the NFL, is highly regarded in the industry, and breaks down film from a technical standpoint but makes it easier to digest for the lay person. Been watching, and trying to pick up stuff, from his page on QBs to help me draft for several years now. Not the be all end all, but another really good tool for the box.

Good post. The Jaguars have had adequate weapons the last few years but nothing more. Overpaid for Kirk and Davis, took flyers on Ridley and Engram. At the end of the day, the jaguars have had a bottom five NFL roster since Lawrence arrived. He’s part of that, sure, but with some improved decision making at the top, there is some reason for optimism. How much?

Lawrence is a guy who might make that jump to second-tier fantasy QB1 with the likes of Goff and Mayfield if things go right in Jax. More likely, he can be a valuable part of a QBBC. I’m talking 4k yards and 30 total TDs. Let’s be honest, those are numbers that Mahomes puts up these days and it’s there at QB19.

 

[cdclopper]

There's 2 different types in this thread: ppl who think T-Law might finally break out; and then there's ppl who have watched him play.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

There's 2 different types in this thread: ppl who think T-Law might finally break out; and then there's ppl who have watched him play.

I agree. There are those who know how to use a semicolon and those who don’t.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m talking 4k yards and 30 total TDs. Let’s be honest, those are numbers that Mahomes puts up these days and it’s there at QB19.

I just don’t see that as realistic for TLaw this year.

For one I don’t believe the Jags will throw enough. Someone above cited their mediocre run game as a reason JAX would throw a lot, but a mediocre run game isn’t good for the passing game. It puts the offense in 2nd & long, 3rd & long, and makes them more predictable to defend.

Folks are praising Coen for TB’s passing improvement from 2023, but seem to be ignoring that the passing game improved with Bucky Irving’s emergence as a RB.

Will one of ETN, Tuten, or Bigsby be this year’s Bucky? I’m a little skeptical. Also TBD how the new look OL will perform.

Lot of variables. But for sure I don’t see TLaw as a Mahomes-level scorer available at QB19. Again, I could be wrong.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

I’m talking 4k yards and 30 total TDs. Let’s be honest, those are numbers that Mahomes puts up these days and it’s there at QB19.

I just don’t see that as realistic for TLaw this year.

For one I don’t believe the Jags will throw enough. Someone above cited their mediocre run game as a reason JAX would throw a lot, but a mediocre run game isn’t good for the passing game. It puts the offense in 2nd & long, 3rd & long, and makes them more predictable to defend.

Folks are praising Coen for TB’s passing improvement from 2023, but seem to be ignoring that the passing game improved with Bucky Irving’s emergence as a RB.

Will one of ETN, Tuten, or Bigsby be this year’s Bucky? I’m a little skeptical. Also TBD how the new look OL will perform.

Lot of variables. But for sure I don’t see TLaw as a Mahomes-level scorer available at QB19. Again, I could be wrong.

I agree with most of this except your conclusion that 4000/30 is unrealistic. He doesn't have to be the Prince who was Promised to get there, or need better coaching or OLine play. Those things could happen but they'd yield bigger totals in my opinion and represent the upside case.

For the yardage, he was 7.0, 7.1 and 7.2 YPA the last three years. Call it 7.2 at a league average 560 attempts and you hit 4000 yards.

He's had 5, 4, then 3 rushing TDs last year in only 10 games. Give him 5 rushing and 1.5 passing TDs per game and that's 30. That's a tad optimistic I guess? Not unrealistic.

Calling them Mahomes numbers was just me taking a shot at him (don't throw a flag!), but the point remains that people are paying a higher price for those same numbers from other QBs.

 

[cdclopper]

There's 2 different types in this thread: ppl who think T-Law might finally break out; and then there's ppl who have watched him play.

I agree. There are those who know how to use a semicolon and those who don’t.

 

[scothawk]

There's 2 different types in this thread: ppl who think T-Law might finally break out; and then there's ppl who have watched him play.

I agree. There are those who know how to use a semicolon and those who don’t.

Fun fact - semicolons have no purpose. Or so my dinosaur-esque English teacher beat into me.

If it is that important use a colon. If it isn't that important then use a comma. If you aren't sure then its really not important at all.

 

[scothawk]

I’m talking 4k yards and 30 total TDs. Let’s be honest, those are numbers that Mahomes puts up these days and it’s there at QB19.

I just don’t see that as realistic for TLaw this year.

For one I don’t believe the Jags will throw enough. Someone above cited their mediocre run game as a reason JAX would throw a lot, but a mediocre run game isn’t good for the passing game. It puts the offense in 2nd & long, 3rd & long, and makes them more predictable to defend.

Folks are praising Coen for TB’s passing improvement from 2023, but seem to be ignoring that the passing game improved with Bucky Irving’s emergence as a RB.

Will one of ETN, Tuten, or Bigsby be this year’s Bucky? I’m a little skeptical. Also TBD how the new look OL will perform.

Lot of variables. But for sure I don’t see TLaw as a Mahomes-level scorer available at QB19. Again, I could be wrong.

I wonder where Trevor would have been last year without them drafting Thomas.

I am firmly in the Trevor isn't going to make great things happen camp.