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QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Faust
MVP
NFL on ESPN
"Trevor can do everything physically that any other quarterback in the NFL can do. It's the mental part of the game, consistency part of the game that I'm looking to see him improve upon."
—@LRiddickESPN on Trevor Lawrence
Im cautiously optimistic and my thinking is his price is pretty attractive right now and he offers QB1 upside at a QB2 price. If you wait for the hype to build and/or a couple big games in September with Thomas and Hunter lighting it up, it will be too late.
For dynasty it wouldn’t surprise me if he very quickly surges up to Herbert/Stroud/ Love/Kyler territory (QBs 7, 10, 12, 13 on KTC at the moment). It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him move ahead of some of the 2nd year QBs like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix (QBs 8, 9, 11 on KTC at the moment) if they stumble at all in year 2.
Trevor Lawrence is still just 25 years old and won’t be 26 until this NFL season is well underway. The changes in Jacksonville all look positive and the arrow is pointing up assuming we don’t hear any negative reports about his recovery from shoulder surgery.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
It’s too soon to write off Lawrence. He’s a value pick due to his upside.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I dealt him for Baker & change last season.
Naturally he’s gonna become a top 5 QB now.
You’re welcome.
Naturally he’s gonna become a top 5 QB now.
You’re welcome.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Maybe top 3…
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Then again, maybe not.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Then again, maybe not.
Oh for sure. Maybe is probably a 5% chance. I peg it as only a 3% chance but like you said, you dropped him so that does increase the odds a touch.
I’ve been trying to acquire him in a contract with a SF so if I’m successful he’ll probably drop considerably in the rankings.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Curiously...prior to the draft, Lawrence was going QB19...in loose order below.
Allen
Lamar
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Mayfield
Nix
Kyler
Caleb
Goff
Purdy
Fields
Herbert
Maye
Love
Dak
Stroud
...who does he jump now?
Allen
Lamar
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Mayfield
Nix
Kyler
Caleb
Goff
Purdy
Fields
Herbert
Maye
Love
Dak
Stroud
...who does he jump now?
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Dak and Fields are easy targets here.
This is very subjective and there's a lot of time between now and when the games are played but my initial thoughts are that he could surpass:
Kyler - was just okay last year (QB12). AZ didn't add any offensive weapons of note.
Purdy - had a very uneven year, and despite some huge games finished as QB14. Lost Deebo, Aiyuk still recovering, CMC a big question mark. Kittle wants a new contract. Didn't add any offensive weapons of note.
Fields - I'm honestly surprised Fields was going this high to begin with given how few people seem to believe in him. I like the Konami code upside but there's obvious downside and I'd rather bet on Lawrence.
Herbert - He was better in the second half of the season, and they did add some nice pieces in the draft, but I am not convinced they will ever be as pass happy as the Coen-led Jags want to be.
Maye - huge fan of Maye for dynasty and similar to Fields I think the running ability raises his upside, but until we see the improvement from the O-line and how Diggs and the rookies look in this offense, I'm not betting big on 2025.
Love - this was a very low volume passing attack last season and the rushing cratered (83 yards, 1 TD). I think Lawrence can easily outperform.
Dak - surprisingly little done to add weapons in FA and draft. It's Lamb and not much else. Dak will be hard-pressed to produce high-end passing numbers and he doesn't add much with his legs anymore (probably a good thing to avoid injury).
Nix, Caleb, and Stroud are right in the same range of my expected outcome for Lawrence, but based on current rankings/ADP I'd rather wait and take Lawrence several rounds later.
These are very fluid and lots of time to sort and change. But for now, we see him at QB16.
Fantasy Football 2024 Draft Rankings
Our fully customizable 2024 Fantasy Football Draft rankings are generated using a blend of our consensus rankings and projections. Change the settings to adjust the rankings for your league settings, or import your league to get fully custom rankings.
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These are very fluid and lots of time to sort and change. But for now, we see him at QB16.
Fantasy Football 2024 Draft Rankings
Our fully customizable 2024 Fantasy Football Draft rankings are generated using a blend of our consensus rankings and projections. Change the settings to adjust the rankings for your league settings, or import your league to get fully custom rankings.
Interestingly, Lawrence is still ranked 19th at QB in this site's dynasty rankings. Even when isolating for just the rankers who have updated since the NFL draft, that remains the case. How often does a 25-year-old QB get ranked higher for redraft than dynasty, especially when they're already signed to a long-term deal (signed a 5 year, $275 million extension last June that keeps him in Jacksonville through 2030 (age 31 season) and have not one but two first round draft picks at WR?
I think the redraft crowd has it right, bumping him up to high-end QB2 status (and I think he could continue to climb throughout the preseason).
Is the dynasty community taking a more measured approach to what's happening in Jax? Might be a buying opportunity.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I already defended Coen elsewhere on these boards when he got the Dan Campbell "biting kneecaps" treatment for putting some corny soundbites out there. And who knows, maybe the value they gave up for Hunter proves to be too much and come back to bite them.
But.... he added Hainsley and Mekari in FA, and Milum in the draft to bolster this line. Got the consensus graded best WR of the draft in Hunter. Added combine superstar Tuten and a lot of peoples tagged "underrated/sleeper" RB LeQuint Allen to a backfield that was about as ho-hum as it gets.
If you aren't excited about TLaw's prospects coming into this season, then you were never likely going to be. This is by far the best he's had to work with in his NFL career to this point. I thought he was already underrated at QB19 prior to FA and the draft. If he's ranked outside the top 12 QB coming into this season (which he's likely to be), I can confidently say he'll be on every redraft/best ball roster I draft this year. And the fact I'll probably be able to draft him as my QB2 in all those leagues will be icing on the cake. He will be my biggest proponent of "wait on taking QB" this year.
But.... he added Hainsley and Mekari in FA, and Milum in the draft to bolster this line. Got the consensus graded best WR of the draft in Hunter. Added combine superstar Tuten and a lot of peoples tagged "underrated/sleeper" RB LeQuint Allen to a backfield that was about as ho-hum as it gets.
If you aren't excited about TLaw's prospects coming into this season, then you were never likely going to be. This is by far the best he's had to work with in his NFL career to this point. I thought he was already underrated at QB19 prior to FA and the draft. If he's ranked outside the top 12 QB coming into this season (which he's likely to be), I can confidently say he'll be on every redraft/best ball roster I draft this year. And the fact I'll probably be able to draft him as my QB2 in all those leagues will be icing on the cake. He will be my biggest proponent of "wait on taking QB" this year.
Last edited:
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Interestingly though, the experts who posted after Round 1 have him QB21.
These are very fluid and lots of time to sort and change. But for now, we see him at QB16.
Fantasy Football 2024 Draft Rankings
Our fully customizable 2024 Fantasy Football Draft rankings are generated using a blend of our consensus rankings and projections. Change the settings to adjust the rankings for your league settings, or import your league to get fully custom rankings.
What's clear already though is he'll generate enough buzz to move up.
These are very fluid and lots of time to sort and change. But for now, we see him at QB16.
Fantasy Football 2024 Draft Rankings
Our fully customizable 2024 Fantasy Football Draft rankings are generated using a blend of our consensus rankings and projections. Change the settings to adjust the rankings for your league settings, or import your league to get fully custom rankings.
Interestingly, Lawrence is still ranked 19th at QB in this site's dynasty rankings. Even when isolating for just the rankers who have updated since the NFL draft, that remains the case. How often does a 25-year-old QB get ranked higher for redraft than dynasty, especially when they're already signed to a long-term deal (signed a 5 year, $275 million extension last June that keeps him in Jacksonville through 2030 (age 31 season) and have not one but two first round draft picks at WR?
I think the redraft crowd has it right, bumping him up to high-end QB2 status (and I think he could continue to climb throughout the preseason).
Is the dynasty community taking a more measured approach to what's happening in Jax? Might be a buying opportunity.
Different opinions are pretty common this early though. I'm sure this will change a lot.
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