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QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
NFL on ESPN
"Trevor can do everything physically that any other quarterback in the NFL can do. It's the mental part of the game, consistency part of the game that I'm looking to see him improve upon."
—@LRiddickESPN on Trevor Lawrence
mjb03003
Footballguy
Im cautiously optimistic and my thinking is his price is pretty attractive right now and he offers QB1 upside at a QB2 price. If you wait for the hype to build and/or a couple big games in September with Thomas and Hunter lighting it up, it will be too late.
For dynasty it wouldn’t surprise me if he very quickly surges up to Herbert/Stroud/ Love/Kyler territory (QBs 7, 10, 12, 13 on KTC at the moment). It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him move ahead of some of the 2nd year QBs like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix (QBs 8, 9, 11 on KTC at the moment) if they stumble at all in year 2.
Trevor Lawrence is still just 25 years old and won’t be 26 until this NFL season is well underway. The changes in Jacksonville all look positive and the arrow is pointing up assuming we don’t hear any negative reports about his recovery from shoulder surgery.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
It’s too soon to write off Lawrence. He’s a value pick due to his upside.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I dealt him for Baker & change last season.
Naturally he’s gonna become a top 5 QB now.
You’re welcome.
Naturally he’s gonna become a top 5 QB now.
You’re welcome.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Maybe top 3…
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Then again, maybe not.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Then again, maybe not.
Oh for sure. Maybe is probably a 5% chance. I peg it as only a 3% chance but like you said, you dropped him so that does increase the odds a touch.
I’ve been trying to acquire him in a contract with a SF so if I’m successful he’ll probably drop considerably in the rankings.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Curiously...prior to the draft, Lawrence was going QB19...in loose order below.
Allen
Lamar
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Mayfield
Nix
Kyler
Caleb
Goff
Purdy
Fields
Herbert
Maye
Love
Dak
Stroud
...who does he jump now?
Allen
Lamar
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Mayfield
Nix
Kyler
Caleb
Goff
Purdy
Fields
Herbert
Maye
Love
Dak
Stroud
...who does he jump now?
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Dak and Fields are easy targets here.
mjb03003
Footballguy
This is very subjective and there's a lot of time between now and when the games are played but my initial thoughts are that he could surpass:
Kyler - was just okay last year (QB12). AZ didn't add any offensive weapons of note.
Purdy - had a very uneven year, and despite some huge games finished as QB14. Lost Deebo, Aiyuk still recovering, CMC a big question mark. Kittle wants a new contract. Didn't add any offensive weapons of note.
Fields - I'm honestly surprised Fields was going this high to begin with given how few people seem to believe in him. I like the Konami code upside but there's obvious downside and I'd rather bet on Lawrence.
Herbert - He was better in the second half of the season, and they did add some nice pieces in the draft, but I am not convinced they will ever be as pass happy as the Coen-led Jags want to be.
Maye - huge fan of Maye for dynasty and similar to Fields I think the running ability raises his upside, but until we see the improvement from the O-line and how Diggs and the rookies look in this offense, I'm not betting big on 2025.
Love - this was a very low volume passing attack last season and the rushing cratered (83 yards, 1 TD). I think Lawrence can easily outperform.
Dak - surprisingly little done to add weapons in FA and draft. It's Lamb and not much else. Dak will be hard-pressed to produce high-end passing numbers and he doesn't add much with his legs anymore (probably a good thing to avoid injury).
Nix, Caleb, and Stroud are right in the same range of my expected outcome for Lawrence, but based on current rankings/ADP I'd rather wait and take Lawrence several rounds later.
These are very fluid and lots of time to sort and change. But for now, we see him at QB16.
mjb03003
Footballguy
These are very fluid and lots of time to sort and change. But for now, we see him at QB16.
Interestingly, Lawrence is still ranked 19th at QB in this site's dynasty rankings. Even when isolating for just the rankers who have updated since the NFL draft, that remains the case. How often does a 25-year-old QB get ranked higher for redraft than dynasty, especially when they're already signed to a long-term deal (signed a 5 year, $275 million extension last June that keeps him in Jacksonville through 2030 (age 31 season) and have not one but two first round draft picks at WR?
I think the redraft crowd has it right, bumping him up to high-end QB2 status (and I think he could continue to climb throughout the preseason).
Is the dynasty community taking a more measured approach to what's happening in Jax? Might be a buying opportunity.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I already defended Coen elsewhere on these boards when he got the Dan Campbell "biting kneecaps" treatment for putting some corny soundbites out there. And who knows, maybe the value they gave up for Hunter proves to be too much and come back to bite them.
But.... he added Hainsley and Mekari in FA, and Milum in the draft to bolster this line. Got the consensus graded best WR of the draft in Hunter. Added combine superstar Tuten and a lot of peoples tagged "underrated/sleeper" RB LeQuint Allen to a backfield that was about as ho-hum as it gets.
If you aren't excited about TLaw's prospects coming into this season, then you were never likely going to be. This is by far the best he's had to work with in his NFL career to this point. I thought he was already underrated at QB19 prior to FA and the draft. If he's ranked outside the top 12 QB coming into this season (which he's likely to be), I can confidently say he'll be on every redraft/best ball roster I draft this year. And the fact I'll probably be able to draft him as my QB2 in all those leagues will be icing on the cake. He will be my biggest proponent of "wait on taking QB" this year.
But.... he added Hainsley and Mekari in FA, and Milum in the draft to bolster this line. Got the consensus graded best WR of the draft in Hunter. Added combine superstar Tuten and a lot of peoples tagged "underrated/sleeper" RB LeQuint Allen to a backfield that was about as ho-hum as it gets.
If you aren't excited about TLaw's prospects coming into this season, then you were never likely going to be. This is by far the best he's had to work with in his NFL career to this point. I thought he was already underrated at QB19 prior to FA and the draft. If he's ranked outside the top 12 QB coming into this season (which he's likely to be), I can confidently say he'll be on every redraft/best ball roster I draft this year. And the fact I'll probably be able to draft him as my QB2 in all those leagues will be icing on the cake. He will be my biggest proponent of "wait on taking QB" this year.
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TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Interestingly though, the experts who posted after Round 1 have him QB21.
These are very fluid and lots of time to sort and change. But for now, we see him at QB16.
What's clear already though is he'll generate enough buzz to move up.
These are very fluid and lots of time to sort and change. But for now, we see him at QB16.
Interestingly, Lawrence is still ranked 19th at QB in this site's dynasty rankings. Even when isolating for just the rankers who have updated since the NFL draft, that remains the case. How often does a 25-year-old QB get ranked higher for redraft than dynasty, especially when they're already signed to a long-term deal (signed a 5 year, $275 million extension last June that keeps him in Jacksonville through 2030 (age 31 season) and have not one but two first round draft picks at WR?
I think the redraft crowd has it right, bumping him up to high-end QB2 status (and I think he could continue to climb throughout the preseason).
Is the dynasty community taking a more measured approach to what's happening in Jax? Might be a buying opportunity.
Different opinions are pretty common this early though. I'm sure this will change a lot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I said almost exactly that before last season.
And I might have said something like that the season before.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Lawrence just might not ever be a top fantasy option. A far cry from the pedestal we put him on coming out of college.
cdclopper
Footballguy
He's blonde Daniel Jones.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Jeff Spicoli.
Big Nate
Footballguy
When he's been healthy he's been good. Finished as QB8 in 2022 and QB13 in 2023 but as you say the pedestal he was put on in college was extremely high. The expectation was he was going to be elite. Right now he's a good QB who is still only 25. They finally got him an elite WR last year in BTJ and now drafted Hunter.
Here is the reality - he's a QB1 but likely in the range of 11-12 with upside around 7 overall. On some dynasty sites he's going around QB15-17 which is a very good value right now. He can get you 300 yards rushing and 4-5 rushing TDs added on to his passing stats which is a nice bonus (he's not just a statue back there).
I feel there is good value where he is currently going, especially in SF dynasty.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Jokes aside he's much better than Jones.
NFL on CBS
Both QBs also have 1 playoff win
Raging weasel
Footballguy
Numbers are closer than you'd think. Especially since one makes 50 mil and the other 10
mil.
Daniel Jones vs. Trevor Lawrence: Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com
Compare Players: Check out the head-to-head stats of Daniel Jones and Trevor Lawrence including their awards, honors, championships, playoff and regular season stats, and much more on Stathead.com
stathead.com
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pinkstapler
Footballguy
Excited to revisit this thread in 7-8 months
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'd probably put Lawrence in the 20-25 range at QB, as far as how good he himself is, but Thomas/Hunter could be as good a 1-2 as there is in the NFL in the near future, so I'd rank him a bit above that.
Its only a slight insult to call him blonde Daniel Jones. I do very much wonder if he gets held in a higher regard than he should simply because of how abysmal Zach Wilson and Trey Lance ended up being. Lawrence has a been a pretty average starter, but compared to the guys drafted around him, he's been Josh Allen.
Its only a slight insult to call him blonde Daniel Jones. I do very much wonder if he gets held in a higher regard than he should simply because of how abysmal Zach Wilson and Trey Lance ended up being. Lawrence has a been a pretty average starter, but compared to the guys drafted around him, he's been Josh Allen.
cdclopper
Footballguy
If the jags could trade the 49ers for just Brock Purdy's head, and sew it on to Trevor's body, they would have one hell of a quarterback. I would hope if they could succesfully do this they could also manage to preserve Trevor's hair too. Somehow. Not to mention BCB's namesake, if you know what I mean. It would be a shame for that to go to waste.
The only wrench in this plan is what to do w Brock Purdy's hair, castrated body and Trevor Lawrence's bald head.
The only wrench in this plan is what to do w Brock Purdy's hair, castrated body and Trevor Lawrence's bald head.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I just read this to my son, and my wife overheard. All she replied was “this sounds like listening to you and your college roommate…..can’t believe there are others like you two out there……exhausting….”
So yeah, take the compliment for the day!
Kiddnets
Footballguy
Trevor has had one of the worst 2 coaching staffs in the league - he wasnt healthy to even take advantage of BTJ's breakout. Watching what Cohen did with Baker - add in 2 top tier weapons and a pretty decent schedule and this is the year for him to show his stuff. I traded for him in 2 dynasty leagues for a pkg of late 2d and 3rd rd picks next year and im pretty stoked about it.
oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
Just added him to pair with Purdy in SF for 1.11. I was looking at starting Rattler or Rudolph so yeah I’m pretty stoked too.
How’s the OLine?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Couple notes here:
1. Baker was almost as good the year before, and got more weapons at RB & WR with Cohen. So it’s debatable whether it was Cohen who “did” anything with Baker, or if Cohen just didn’t mess up the trajectory Baker was already on. I’m fairly well convinced it’s the latter, because again - Baker was marginally improved from the year before and the addition of Bucky & some receiving help could have been responsible for the difference as much as Cohen was.
2. TLaw was sure made to look good against meh competition in college and with insane talent around him. He’s not looked remotely as good at any point in the pros to my novice eye.
But all that said; it’s absolutely possible that he takes another step forward and has his best season yet with the best weapons he’s had in the pros.
I’m out, but I won’t completely discount that possibility. A few years ago I sounded very much like you - I dealt a package of players for TLaw and would have been better off standing pat. In that same league last year I managed to move TLaw for Baker + a couple of picks.
I think @travdogg assessment is spot on: blond Daniel Jones, with a bit more pedigree/upside. Probably around QB20
I’m not rooting against him, I’m just getting more skeptical that there’s a corner to turn the more I’ve seen him play. Added to his challenge, HOU’s defense, INDY’s defense, and TEN’s defenses are all pretty good and potentially getting better. What’s been a butter soft division might have more parity - that would be not great for TLaw’s upside.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Haha hey as we used to say in college, lower your standards and up your numbers. Opening the door to the other gender is basically just multiplying your odds X2!
But yeah, I don't think TLaw will ever be a year over year top 5 QB. He just doesn't rush enough. Not to make it sound oversimplified, but I think we've really reached that point in fantasy where no QB will be a top guy consistently year over year unless they put up at 350+ rushing yards and are an above average passer or are a truly elite talent also in an outstanding situation (basically the Burrow/Brady/Payton/Brees group). I don't think Lawrence tics either of those boxes.
At the same time, I think he could finally possess a team, coaching staff, situation where if he shows the talent he showed in college is still in there somewhere; he could be a 6-10 ranked fantasy QB for upwards of a decade. To be fair and consistent across how I approach fantasy; yes is it working against him he hasn't done it yet. Every player has excuses for poor performance, and the truly elite ones just overcome, so to be 4 seasons in not done it yet is a red flag. But in my mind, he kind of has as well. He's finished QB8 and QB13 two of those years, in spite of *insert all the TLaw excuses here*.
I think it's wild to comp him to Daniel Jones. It's like comping Norman Rockwell to Hitler because they both went to art school. They are wildly different players where people are just cherry picking mundane and meaningless (meaningless to the arguments they are being mishandled to support) metrics. If someone truly watches 10 games of Daniel Jones and 10 games of Lawrence and sees the same QB.... I'm the last person to be a football elitist but I seriously would have to question that persons knowledge of the game at even a fundamental level. It's an asinine assessment that only has the smallest bit of online presence because it's so wild it gets clicks and comments. People with financial implications use it to farm engagement and profit, and others use it to get a reaction and attention. Even ranking him QB 20 seems so off base when you look at what he's already done. He finished QB23, QB8, QB13, and QB27 in a year he only played 10 games. He was just shy of 17ppg last year, and extrapolating it out if he didn't get injured would have finished him at QB11 last year. QB20 just doesn't math.
Back to the point though; aside from Brock Purdy, I think TLaw is the best value QB in SF leagues right now. He's an absolute steal in a system which, IMO, has finally revealed itself to be running QB centric and the pendulum has swung so far that people ignore/undervalue non-rushing QBs to their own detriment. Literally tripping over a quarter to pick up a nickel. Four years experience, two QB1 fantasy seasons, still younger than rookie Tyler Shough, practically 0 risk of losing his starting job for the foreseeable future, and finally has what the community would consider an above average supporting staff/system to work with/in.
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Kiddnets
Footballguy
great post - excited what a healthy Trevor can do with these weapons and an actual coachHaha hey as we used to say in college, lower your standards and up your numbers. Opening the door to the other gender is basically just multiplying your odds X2!
But yeah, I don't think TLaw will ever be a year over year top 5 QB. He just doesn't rush enough. Not to make it sound oversimplified, but I think we've really reached that point in fantasy where no QB will be a top guy consistently year over year unless they put up at 350+ rushing yards and are an above average passer or are a truly elite talent also in an outstanding situation (basically the Burrow/Brady/Payton/Brees group). I don't think Lawrence tics either of those boxes.
At the same time, I think he could finally possess a team, coaching staff, situation where if he shows the talent he showed in college is still in there somewhere; he could be a 6-10 ranked fantasy QB for upwards of a decade. To be fair and consistent across how I approach fantasy; yes is it working against him he hasn't done it yet. Every player has excuses for poor performance, and the truly elite ones just overcome, so to be 4 seasons in not done it yet is a red flag. But in my mind, he kind of has as well. He's finished QB8 and QB13 two of those years, in spite of *insert all the TLaw excuses here*.
I think it's wild to comp him to Daniel Jones. It's like comping Norman Rockwell to Hitler because they both went to art school. They are wildly different players where people are just cherry picking mundane and meaningless (meaningless to the arguments they are being mishandled to support) metrics. If someone truly watches 10 games of Daniel Jones and 10 games of Lawrence and sees the same QB.... I'm the last person to be a football elitist but I seriously would have to question that persons knowledge of the game at even a fundamental level. It's an asinine assessment that only has the smallest bit of online presence because it's so wild it gets clicks and comments. People with financial implications use it to farm engagement and profit, and others use it to get a reaction and attention. Even ranking him QB 20 seems so off base when you look at what he's already done. He finished QB23, QB8, QB13, and QB27 in a year he only played 10 games. He was just shy of 17ppg last year, and extrapolating it out if he didn't get injured would have finished him at QB11 last year. QB20 just doesn't math.
Back to the point though; aside from Brock Purdy, I think TLaw is the best value QB in SF leagues right now. He's an absolute steal in a system which, IMO, has finally revealed itself to be running QB centric and the pendulum has swung so far that people ignore/undervalue non-rushing QBs to their own detriment. Literally tripping over a quarter to pick up a nickel. Four years experience, two QB1 fantasy seasons, still younger than rookie Tyler Shough, practically 0 risk of losing his starting job for the foreseeable future, and finally has what the community would consider an above average supporting staff/system to work with/in.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Thanks, and obv. the same. I will reemphasize though, his lack of running will cap his ceiling. And maybe the Hunter experiment doesn't work. And maybe it takes a year of working with a new coaching staff yet again, learning a new offense yet again, to really see a bigger payoff. I just think where I'm apparently most strongly off consensus is his floor, which I see as QB12 if he stays healthy. Realistically it's where he's already been performing the past 3 years without accounting for all the positive changes for this season. So his current ADP in redraft around QB19 feels like a screaming steal.great post - excited what a healthy Trevor can do with these weapons and an actual coachHaha hey as we used to say in college, lower your standards and up your numbers. Opening the door to the other gender is basically just multiplying your odds X2!
But yeah, I don't think TLaw will ever be a year over year top 5 QB. He just doesn't rush enough. Not to make it sound oversimplified, but I think we've really reached that point in fantasy where no QB will be a top guy consistently year over year unless they put up at 350+ rushing yards and are an above average passer or are a truly elite talent also in an outstanding situation (basically the Burrow/Brady/Payton/Brees group). I don't think Lawrence tics either of those boxes.
At the same time, I think he could finally possess a team, coaching staff, situation where if he shows the talent he showed in college is still in there somewhere; he could be a 6-10 ranked fantasy QB for upwards of a decade. To be fair and consistent across how I approach fantasy; yes is it working against him he hasn't done it yet. Every player has excuses for poor performance, and the truly elite ones just overcome, so to be 4 seasons in not done it yet is a red flag. But in my mind, he kind of has as well. He's finished QB8 and QB13 two of those years, in spite of *insert all the TLaw excuses here*.
I think it's wild to comp him to Daniel Jones. It's like comping Norman Rockwell to Hitler because they both went to art school. They are wildly different players where people are just cherry picking mundane and meaningless (meaningless to the arguments they are being mishandled to support) metrics. If someone truly watches 10 games of Daniel Jones and 10 games of Lawrence and sees the same QB.... I'm the last person to be a football elitist but I seriously would have to question that persons knowledge of the game at even a fundamental level. It's an asinine assessment that only has the smallest bit of online presence because it's so wild it gets clicks and comments. People with financial implications use it to farm engagement and profit, and others use it to get a reaction and attention. Even ranking him QB 20 seems so off base when you look at what he's already done. He finished QB23, QB8, QB13, and QB27 in a year he only played 10 games. He was just shy of 17ppg last year, and extrapolating it out if he didn't get injured would have finished him at QB11 last year. QB20 just doesn't math.
Back to the point though; aside from Brock Purdy, I think TLaw is the best value QB in SF leagues right now. He's an absolute steal in a system which, IMO, has finally revealed itself to be running QB centric and the pendulum has swung so far that people ignore/undervalue non-rushing QBs to their own detriment. Literally tripping over a quarter to pick up a nickel. Four years experience, two QB1 fantasy seasons, still younger than rookie Tyler Shough, practically 0 risk of losing his starting job for the foreseeable future, and finally has what the community would consider an above average supporting staff/system to work with/in.
warpig33
Footballguy
Does T-Law have better weapons this year? They have a 2nd yr WR, a rookie still learning the position, and a journeyman in Dyami Brown (I think Parker Washington should be #3 WR). They certainly downgraded at TE. There are gonna be hiccups at the WR/TE position this year. Basically the same RB room. T-Law isn't a leader or motivator. If things start going sideways AGAIN, I can see more of the same "ho-hum, here we go again" attitude from this "team". We all know the defense will quit if they get a slow start.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Pray to the health Gods.
darksideofoz
Footballguy
sure they can. I don't think they will, but I also think it may take them well into the season to get in sync with the new system and figure out the touch distribution. I would love to scoop some pieces in trades come Halloween.
I think this passing game is being very slept on. No reason Lawrence can't be a top-10 QB, Thomas a top-5 WR, and Hunter a top-25 WR. That's a very doable season in my opinion.
Big Nate
Footballguy
T-Law has some sneaky mobility/rushing upside too. Just enough to add a bit to the stats each week.
Like was mentioned above - they just need to stay healthy. T-Law has a QB8 and QB13 finish so far under his belt. If all goes well I can see him hitting QB6-7 again if he plays all the games with QB5 as his ceiling. No reason he shouldn't be a top 10QB with these weapons and potential offense.
Massive value if he can stay healthy.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Up to now he has vastly underperformed the hype he had going into the draft. While I expect an uptick in 2025 performance, I am still leery of him. So much so that I traded him this offseason knowing he could be better I 2025.
Big Nate
Footballguy
That is where the issue comes and I accepted it long ago that he isn't the #1 QB or going to be the QB1. In 2025 his ADP QB19 which is a screaming deal.
People who drafted him #1 overall in rookie drafts are still hurt but the reality is he is still a young QB that could produce top 10-12 QB production each year. If he is your QB2 in SF you are laughing if you get 7-10 more years out of him.
As soon as people move on from #1 QB ever coming out of college it makes it easier and then you see value at QB19.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Glad we're past the dark days of everyone here pretending like Lawrence was in a loaded offense with guys like Christian Kirk & Calvin Ridley being hyped as legitimate WR1's.
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