Rank the ugly 5th round RB cluster for PPR (1 Viewer)

[AMT]

If your taking WR early your going to have to pick from this group.

-Ben Tate (he gets hurt but he's the one guy in this group that has upside to be a monster. Shanahan system is RB gold and RB hell at the same time. He caught 34 passes last year too so you would think he's going to be involved in the passing game)

-Chris Johnson (we all know what he is at this point but the Jets could be horrific)

-MJD (he's thrived on terrible teams in the past and the Raiders actually have been able to run the ball. DMC is there for the two weeks until he gets hurt)

-Pierre Thomas (will he be last years version where he had a career high 77 catches or go back to being a 40-50 catch guy? If the latter he's pretty worthless because he's probably scoring 5 td's or less, but no Sproles makes you wonder if he could be a monster)

-Lamar Miller (I don't have much of an opinion on him. Horrible last year but had the worst O-Line in the league. Knowshon could snipe a a lot of receptions)

-Ray Rice (He actually could be a monster too in PPR. He had his lowest catch total since his rookie year last year and still had 58 catches. Even if he still sucks, as long as he's getting the work he will be an RB2 just based on the catches, but he's missing 2 games which is almost 1/6 of the fantasy regular season and could potentially lose his job)

I have zero interest in Ridley or Gore in PPR. And I'm out on T-Rich a well, so it leaves this list as the group in the 5th and 6th round. If you end up with just one RB in the first 4 rounds which is increasingly common, you gotta plug your nose and select one of these guys for an RB2. How do you rank them?

 

[Arnold T. Pants]

All of these guys have significant questions; that's why they're available in Round 5. So to me, the real question is: who has the most upside?

I think this is a no-brainer for Rice; here's a guy who was in the mix at 1.1 in PPR two years ago who's got a great OC. The press has been all Pierce so far, depressing Rice's value, but a) the Ravens play stout run defenses weeks 1-2 and b) Pierce sucks. I would say there's a <5% chance Pierce puts together a monster game in those weeks and displaces Rice for the rest of the season, and a >60% chance that Pierce puts up two mediocre-or-worse weeks and the team gives the mostly-every-down-back role to Rice starting in week 3.

Most of the rest of these guys have innate talent concerns. Lamar Miller sucks. CJ2K and MJD are old and mostly broken down. Pierre Thomas has some skills but is probably the 7th-best pass-catching option. Ben Tate couldn't stay healthy as a backup.

 

[bostonfred]

Chris Johnson isn't broken down and he's not that old. He's looked good, he's the top offensive weapon in New York and he's coming off a top ten season. Again. Amazing that he's available do late in drafts, but he should be your top priority among those guys.

After that, I go rice because he has the pedigree and is capable of being top ten again even street missing a couple games. He added to much weight last year, and trained for power instead of speed. That's not his game and it showed. But he's certainly capable of a bounce back season after losing some of that weight and he is going to have fresh legs when he comes back which is always nice.

I actually think Moreno is going to end up getting that starting job, even though I know, he's fat and he sucks. Still if Miller can take and keep hold of that job. Which is a huge if, he could be a beastwith Lazor. I would take him for the upside, but only if I had exhausted the other players in my tier.

Pierre Thomas could be and should be a safe top twenty guy. The problem is I just don't think he has top ten upside, which means you get ok but generally mediocre scoring from him every week. I want guys who have that upside, either short term (like a backup running back who gets the job due to injury) out long term. I will pass, but if you went receiver heavy out makes sense to get a safe scoring guy. Just seems like a waste to use this pick on a guy with lower upside just to get that higher floor.

Then I go Tate. I should probably like him more here, but seeing him blow his opportunity last year was so frustrating. I don't know what to expect. Not a bad choice if you're selling lottery tickets.

Mms has the pedigree, but sharing carriers, with a lot of accumulated injuries and dings, on a bad team... Maybe I should bE higher on him , but I will pass.

 

[Greggity]

Figured Jennings and "grits, toby" would be in here....

 

[Benicio10]

All of these guys have significant questions; that's why they're available in Round 5. So to me, the real question is: who has the most upside?

I think this is a no-brainer for Rice; here's a guy who was in the mix at 1.1 in PPR two years ago who's got a great OC. The press has been all Pierce so far, depressing Rice's value, but a) the Ravens play stout run defenses weeks 1-2 and b) Pierce sucks. I would say there's a <5% chance Pierce puts together a monster game in those weeks and displaces Rice for the rest of the season, and a >60% chance that Pierce puts up two mediocre-or-worse weeks and the team gives the mostly-every-down-back role to Rice starting in week 3.

Most of the rest of these guys have innate talent concerns. Lamar Miller sucks. CJ2K and MJD are old and mostly broken down. Pierre Thomas has some skills but is probably the 7th-best pass-catching option. Ben Tate couldn't stay healthy as a backup.

I stopped reading after "Pierce sucks"

 

[AMT]

Figured Jennings and "grits, toby" would be in here....

Those guys are long gone by the time I'm looking at these guys but if they are there for you I would take both over all the guys listed.

 

[Arnold T. Pants]

All of these guys have significant questions; that's why they're available in Round 5. So to me, the real question is: who has the most upside?

I think this is a no-brainer for Rice; here's a guy who was in the mix at 1.1 in PPR two years ago who's got a great OC. The press has been all Pierce so far, depressing Rice's value, but a) the Ravens play stout run defenses weeks 1-2 and b) Pierce sucks. I would say there's a <5% chance Pierce puts together a monster game in those weeks and displaces Rice for the rest of the season, and a >60% chance that Pierce puts up two mediocre-or-worse weeks and the team gives the mostly-every-down-back role to Rice starting in week 3.

Most of the rest of these guys have innate talent concerns. Lamar Miller sucks. CJ2K and MJD are old and mostly broken down. Pierre Thomas has some skills but is probably the 7th-best pass-catching option. Ben Tate couldn't stay healthy as a backup.

I stopped reading after "Pierce sucks"

This is probably a waste of my time, given that you think "I stopped reading after 'Pierce sucks'" qualifies as insight, but here goes: what about Pierce makes you think he doesn't suck? I mean, sure, YPC isn't the be-all and end-all of statistics, but here's a guy who averaged just 2.9 YPC; that's 47th out of of 48 RBs by rate. If you're ranking, that's behind Trent Richardson, and ahead of only Willis McGahee (!) In his best start of 2013, Pierce rushed for a grand total of... 65 yards.

Right now, the hype train on Pierce is out of control for a guy who's never been very good.

 

[donkshow]

Ben Tate is definitely my favourite there.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Figured Jennings and "grits, toby" would be in here....

They both have ADPs well before the 5th round.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Ben Tate is definitely my favourite there.

if your getting Tate in the 5 thank your leaguemates (after u take West)

 

[silentcoach]

Ben Tate is definitely my favourite there.

if your getting Tate in the 5 thank your leaguemates (after u take West)

fantasy football calculator currently has Tate as rb 29, which would suggest round 6.

So rd 5 seems to be around market value.

 

[patalbert]

I think Rice is way undervalued so he'd be my pick. He's had first or second round value basically his whole career before last year, and I think he's both the safest and has the most upside of that group. He's also easily the best running back of that group at this point. I'm not a believer in Pierce at all, though, so take that for what's it's worth. Sure, he's missing two games, but those are pre-bye and he has a good history of durability.

I don't have much interest in the rest of that group in the 5th, with the possible exception of CJ and maybe Tate a bit later or in non-PPR.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Definitely wouldn't touch Pierre Thomas with a 5 foot pole. Guy's old, injury prone, and assuredly gone from the team at the end of the season; chances are he'll start being phased out of the Saints gameplan throughout the year as both Ingram and Khiry are looking great. And despite his accumulated numbers last year he was terribly inefficient. Let someone else take him.

Ben Tate is interesting, seems like a good bet for 1000 yards and 8+ TDs if he can stay healthy, but that's a pretty big if. Thing is he's gonna be a no-factor in the passing game. I know you think his 34 receptions is reason for optimism, but his 4.1 Yards-per-reception is beyond terrible. I'd be pretty shocked if he beats out Ogbonnaya and T. West for 3rd down duties. In PPR leagues I'd avoid Tate, but in no-PPR leagues I may take a chance.

Lamar Miller's kind of a wildcard. Has potential, but in the end I'd prob ignore him on draft day.

MJD/Chris Johnson are who I'd put my money on of the group you list. They'll both likely be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, but by seasons end both will be good bets to have 1000+ yards imo. I'd prob shoot for the stars and take Chris Johnson of the two of them, but I think Ivory is a legit threat for touches, so MJD may be the safer pick.

Some guys I like later in the draft:

Carlos Hyde. Could easily see him taking over the starter role by midseason, or perhaps earlier if Gore gets injured.

Devonta Freeman guy is really really good. Steven Jackson can't stay healthy and even when he is he's not very good. Draft Freeman.

Mark Ingram/Khiry Robinson Both finished last year off strong and are looking great in the preseason. Both have ADP's in the 10th+. I like them both a good deal, especially that late.

Jeremy Hill could get 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Could get a good bit less, but either way I'd WAYYY rather have Hill in the 10th than Bernard in the 2nd. It's not inconceivable that Hill could finish the year with more fantasy points imo.

 

[AMT]

Ben Tate is interesting, seems like a good bet for 1000 yards and 8+ TDs if he can stay healthy, but that's a pretty big if. Thing is he's gonna be a no-factor in the passing game. I know you think his 34 receptions is reason for optimism, but his 4.1 Yards-per-reception is beyond terrible. I'd be pretty shocked if he beats out Ogbonnaya and T. West for 3rd down duties. In PPR leagues I'd avoid Tate, but in no-PPR leagues I may take a chance.

This is the thing I am wondering about Tate. I think he will be good as a rusher but I don't know what to think in terms of receptions. He was pretty awful last year as you noted, but honestly you don't need him to be efficient in PPR, you just need those 30-40 catches. Terrance West caught like 30 balls his entire college career. Is OGB still on that team? I guess we are just assuming Tate won't be a 3 down back and that's kind of a fair assumption considering his injury history.

 

[biju]

It's funny, in years past I have always thought Chris Johnson was too inconsistent to be picked as high as he has been but now he represents far too much value in the 5th to not be picked. He'll likely have good weeks and bad weeks but so are all of the guys in this group.

My money is on Chris Johnson for value here.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Ben Tate is interesting, seems like a good bet for 1000 yards and 8+ TDs if he can stay healthy, but that's a pretty big if. Thing is he's gonna be a no-factor in the passing game. I know you think his 34 receptions is reason for optimism, but his 4.1 Yards-per-reception is beyond terrible. I'd be pretty shocked if he beats out Ogbonnaya and T. West for 3rd down duties. In PPR leagues I'd avoid Tate, but in no-PPR leagues I may take a chance.

This is the thing I am wondering about Tate. I think he will be good as a rusher but I don't know what to think in terms of receptions. He was pretty awful last year as you noted, but honestly you don't need him to be efficient in PPR, you just need those 30-40 catches. Terrance West caught like 30 balls his entire college career. Is OGB still on that team? I guess we are just assuming Tate won't be a 3 down back and that's kind of a fair assumption considering his injury history.

Yeah Ogbonnaya is still there. And West had 26 receptions in his senior season, that's actually a rather high number for a college back to have in a season, and a sign for optimism that he can be a 3rd down back in the NFL. Either way, I think Tate has proven over his career that he's not a very good receiving back, so I'd definitely bet the under on 40 receptions.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Chris Johnson no question. He and Decker are the only two skill players on the Jets that would actually start for another team. And you know the Jets passing game is going to struggle if Geno starts. So expect a heavy dose of CJ2K. I think Rex will run him into the ground.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Ivory is three times the runner Johnson is.

 

[mr roboto]

Ivory is three times the runner Johnson is.

 

[White Lightning]

Ivory is three times the runner Johnson is.

Just stop. I'm leaning towards CJ after watching both of the Raiders pre-season games. While MJD looks spry, the Raiders O-line looks horrible and Shaub will be the definition of a non-threat. I realize MJD has done well on bad teams before, but I'm still going with CJ, his skills, and Rex's love to run the ball. I have also watched the NO games and Ingram looks very good, Pierre Thomas seems to have lost the job, and I think he's a great value in Rd 10 (This is coming from a Ingram semi-hater).

 

[rjv]

Ivory is three times the injury risk Johnson is.

Fixed

 

[chihawk]

Joique Bell?

 

[AMT]

Joique Bell?

Firmly ahead of these guys IMO.

I am somewhat surprised by the dislike for Pierre Thomas but I think the more I have looked the more I have soured on him. I just can't buy into Mark Ingram though. Pierre will be the kind of guy who will have a ton of games with 1 fantasy point into the 4th quarter then has one drive where he catches 4 balls for 50 yards and salvages his day. You just never feel confident starting him because of the limited snaps.