DocHolliday
Footballguy
If it makes you feel better, I have done just about the same thing. Feels like I can't win no matter what I try this season. It happens. Maybe we will get it right next week.
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RB Alex Collins, SEA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
Yenrub
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
That's pretty much the size of it. He's still a hold, but the dream of possible RB2 value is dead for now.
Chaka
Footballguy
Absolutely and I noted as much above. But everything that happened today demonstrates that Collins is #2 in this backfield (presuming West misses time if not Collins is probably still #3).
Trust is king here and Allen clearly has it. That puts us Collins owners in the situation where we either need to 1) wait for an Allen injury or 2) try to predict matchups where the Ravens will need to roll the dice with the more explosive, but less trustworthy, player.
If you can hold him you should but he simply is not startable for at least another week (and that is the most optimistic, rose colored possibility).
Chaka
Footballguy
Man In The Box
Footballguy
I know there are many types of leagues, but I’d say this is a pretty good summary of where we’re at with Collins in most cases.
Rove!
Footballguy
He doesn't strike me as the bell-cow type of back. And there are very few featured backs in the league. I just haven't seen enough from him that makes me think he can keep Collins (or anyone for that matter) from stealing carries. A 60/40 or 50/50 with Collins is more likely unless he goes off.
Chaka
Footballguy
He's effective enough for Harbaugh and...I'm not sure what you mean with the passing game comment. He seems very effective I'm the passing game and effective enough in the running game. Collins is apparently a nothing-burger in the passing game.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think it's a matter of seeing the usage as a positive. In fact go back a few pages. I think it's just the belief that Collins is the better runner. He'd have to be or we'd all be fools to be posting in a 25-page thread on a guy no one thinks is better than Buck Allen (or it's just fun).
But we've seen before that the "better" runner doesn't necessarily translate to success. This kid's situation is very similar to Bryce Brown and Christine Michael, both electric looking backs who just never could put it all together.
Will be interesting to see what Harbaugh says. I wonder if he has been dropping the ball on the ground in practice and what he's been doing to fix a problem he couldn't fix his entire college career.
Everything has pretty much been said at this point but I don’t think it necessarily has to be an injury to Allen for Collins to have value. It’s not like Allen has a chokehold on the position. He’s the flavor of the month. One game usage doesn’t dictate a pattern. Could easily go with hot hand next week.
Collins been on the team for like 4 weeks and he’s young and inexperienced. He makes mistakes. But he’s already made such progress and he can grow more.
If he continues to not fumble and gets hot, 20 carries at 7.2 ypc he could break out for 144+ with multiple tds and it would be hard to substantiate sitting him.
Ajayi was never going to be a starter and was in the dog house for the first 5 or so games last year but things changed after he broke out.
It’s hypothetical yes and he could easily not achieve it and be a bust, but he’s got a foot in the door. Sometimes that’s all you need.
Collins been on the team for like 4 weeks and he’s young and inexperienced. He makes mistakes. But he’s already made such progress and he can grow more.
If he continues to not fumble and gets hot, 20 carries at 7.2 ypc he could break out for 144+ with multiple tds and it would be hard to substantiate sitting him.
Ajayi was never going to be a starter and was in the dog house for the first 5 or so games last year but things changed after he broke out.
It’s hypothetical yes and he could easily not achieve it and be a bust, but he’s got a foot in the door. Sometimes that’s all you need.
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Chaka
Footballguy
That's just a silly thing to say. I get that.you have a man crush on Collins and you have been shticking up this thread for our entertainment but don't be the guy who resorts to argumentative fallacies when faced with the possibility that you were wrong.
FTR No I am not rooting against my own best interest.
Chaka
Footballguy
This is a good point and should definitely be considered when evaluating dropping Collins for other waiver options.
Weebs210
Footballguy
Oh I could definitely be wrong. Have been before and will most likely be wrong in the future. That said the verdict is not out yet as it is end of week 5.
Chaka
Footballguy
The verdict definitely is not out but not much good came out of yesterday.
I'm probably going to hold for another week based on the possibility that West's injury leads to more practice reps for Collins which, hopefully, will lead to more game reps. But everyone in here has to be a little disappointed (or a lot) that West's injury didn't translate into more action yesterday.
He's still not startable for at least another week.
Short Corner
Footballguy
I think for the time being he is a high variance play in the eyes of Harbaugh. If they are down two scores instead of up two he likely gets more run.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This is a great point. I was a big fan of Collins as a prospect and was surprised to see him fall in the draft and not get a real chance thus far. I do think there's something to the fact that sometimes the most "exciting" back may not necessarily be the best option for NFL teams. Sometimes there's just something missing with these guys.
I'll hold Collins where I own him, but if he fails to gain traction in Baltimore with only Buck Allen and Terrence West to compete with, it may be time to move on.
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That’s kind of taken out of context. I mean everyone starts as a nobody until they become a somebody. I don’t think I’d drop the guy for a known experienced plodder. 5-7 points a week won’t do anything for me.
its way easier to say a guy is unlikely to be anything than pick a guy who will become something. This and about a dozen other threads are just as unlikely to become fantasy relevants. If you said they’d all suck you’d be right 9/10. Were all just throwing darts at a board. Just because a lot of people like him doesn’t mean he is doomed to fail. There’s a path to success that people can visualize along with a million paths to failure, just like every other lottery ticket.
Just curious, you keep saying he’s bad but please tell me who you would rather have. That would help give the thread more substance. Other than Allen that is.
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Problem is for me that I was expecting this game to be kind of that game for the Ravens. They were getting behind in their division and needed this win to keep pace, coming off some disastrously performances this season and going on the road.
Maybe not the exact recipe to the milligram, but if not this game, think it may be nigh impossible to predict how much more exact the conditions need to be for Collins.
He’s a hold for injury in deeper bench leagues, but otherwise I think it’s an acceptable gamble to drop him for better options.
The Frankman
Footballguy
I slept on it and decided to wait until the Monday presser to see what the issue was, but in the meantime some good points came up:
1) Despite all the talking up Collins and marking him as the starter, the team did a 100% about face over the weekend and went with West/Allen because they are more reliable with the ball.
2) The staff never really believed in Collins the whole time as a starter the whole time and did everything purely to muddy waters.
3) Collins may not have had enough time to get up to speed with the team and playbook (just signed Sep. 3rd), even with taking some 1st team reps last week.
Your guess is as good as mine, but there are legit counter reasons to all 3. It's an odd situation.
1) Despite all the talking up Collins and marking him as the starter, the team did a 100% about face over the weekend and went with West/Allen because they are more reliable with the ball.
2) The staff never really believed in Collins the whole time as a starter the whole time and did everything purely to muddy waters.
3) Collins may not have had enough time to get up to speed with the team and playbook (just signed Sep. 3rd), even with taking some 1st team reps last week.
Your guess is as good as mine, but there are legit counter reasons to all 3. It's an odd situation.
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His carries are trending up... 7,9,9,12. And, he's maintaining a high yards per carry average. He's moving in a positive direction despite two fumbles on the season.
It's very possible this is deliberate by the coaching staff. I'll be looking to see what his carry count looks like after next week. If it moves up to 15, this will be huge.
We're not even at the halfway mark of the season. I understand dropping him if you need someone that you have to put immediately in to your line-up... and maybe there's a Marlon Mack sitting out there in your league. I get that. But, if you put Collins at the end of your bench and wait this out, it could pay dividends.
It's very possible this is deliberate by the coaching staff. I'll be looking to see what his carry count looks like after next week. If it moves up to 15, this will be huge.
We're not even at the halfway mark of the season. I understand dropping him if you need someone that you have to put immediately in to your line-up... and maybe there's a Marlon Mack sitting out there in your league. I get that. But, if you put Collins at the end of your bench and wait this out, it could pay dividends.
Great post. Also I disagree with comparisons of him to Christine michael above. Michael was a great athlete and a dumb football player. He had poor vision. He regularly missed reads.tricky92 said:
Collins is a great athlete and a smart football player. He has excellent vision. He makes the right reads. He just fumbles too much. A problem that is much easier corrected than a poor football iq.
Theres no way I'm dropping collins RT now. I'm holding EIGHT Rb lottery tickets RT now on my 17 man roster. eight! Lol
by the time my trade deadline hits one of these lotto tickets will have exploded and I will trade for a high end WR.
With west injured this backfield is thin. And with the way collins is running, he is the type of back that can turn 12-15 carries into 100 yards and a td on any given week. In the more he plays and doesn't fumble more opportunity he will get. Yesterday definitely sucked for those of us that roll the dice on him in our flex no doubt about it. But he is absolutely a hold especially now we are bye weeks are in full effect.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yeah, I have a short bench league and I currently have all 5 bench slots for lotto/backup RBs. And I need a TE this week. McKissic may be the best chance for me to get back after this week to pick up a TE, or Morris if Zeke isn't suspended, but Collins is far from last on that list. He's actually my 1st or 2nd RB off the bench (Abdullah, Collins, Crowell, Morris, McKissic)
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I don't like the Michael and Bryce Brown comparisons. He isn't like them, they were athletic freaks which questionable RB traits. Michael was just bad and Brown tried to bounce everything to the outside. What I like about Collins is that he's essentially the inverse of them. Although, I do think Brown had a fumbling issue.
I'm an Eagles fan and got to see a bit of Bryce Brown, and I don't get the comparison either. Brown had almost zero wiggle, while Collins has exceptional lateral mobility.
I'm not saying Collins is the same back as Bryce Brown and Christine Michael. I was saying that the situation is very similar. You seemingly have a very gifted athlete, both had lots of hype, but for some reason, that didn't translate to fantasy or NFL success. Michael and Brown for the reasons you and the other post list. And yes, Brown had a fumble that was returned for a TD, I believe in the second of his two electric games to start his career. Nothing good happened after that. Collins for now also because of his fumbling woes.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Collins isn't a gifted athlete in the context of NFL running backs. It's really important to make a distinction between being a gifted athlete and being a gifted runner. It's why I'm not high on McGuire, for instance.
habsfan
Footballguy
The analogy isn't a great one but like they say about QBs, it doesn't look like the game is "too fast" for Collins. He seems to be accurately seeing, processing and reacting to what is unfolding in front of him. He can't learn to be faster but he can learn to hang onto the ball..
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Fair point - but I was more just agreeing with the notion that sometimes these guys that "pop" on film, just don't do enough of the little things which makes coaching staffs happy. I like Collins a lot and own him in multiple leagues so I'm pulling for him - it's just that he's not yet been able to take over a backfield in two stops, neither of which required him to beat out otherworldly talents.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I am considering starting this guy this week. He has seen his rushes increase over the last 4 weeks 7, 9, 9, 12. I really feel like this week he may get even more touches and lead the backfield. Allen getting the goal line carries was frustrating, but from what I can tell he did not look that good at the goal line. I imagine Baltimore may see that and may try Collins there.
My other option is Cohen… who has been getting less touches over the last 4 weeks. Due to byes I don’t have many other options… unless Diggs plays Sunday but having a little shorter rest and his groin injury history, I’m not too confident in that. Any thoughts on Collins this week?
My other option is Cohen… who has been getting less touches over the last 4 weeks. Due to byes I don’t have many other options… unless Diggs plays Sunday but having a little shorter rest and his groin injury history, I’m not too confident in that. Any thoughts on Collins this week?
shadyridr
Footballguy
He should get about 10 touches and he can always break one. I don't think he's a horrible desperation play at all.
A few years back, I dropped CJ Anderson when he was in a muddled backfield, right before he busted out.
Surely many folks made the same mistake last year with Jay Ajayi.
I'm holding Collins, because you don't have to squint too hard to see something like that playing out here too.
Surely many folks made the same mistake last year with Jay Ajayi.
I'm holding Collins, because you don't have to squint too hard to see something like that playing out here too.
I own Collins in one league, Allen in another, and I'm done reading the tea leaves. The moment we're certain one guy is taking over, he gets out-touched by someone else. Coming into this week we were all sure Collins was moving up and Allen was becoming the afterthought. Now it's "They trust Allen more so he'll be getting the goal-line/late-game carries."
I may have to start Collins this week out of necessity, but for the most part I'm waiting this out until we have more clarity. Hopefully we'll have at least a couple weeks of that until West and Woodhead come back and muddy it up all over again.
I may have to start Collins this week out of necessity, but for the most part I'm waiting this out until we have more clarity. Hopefully we'll have at least a couple weeks of that until West and Woodhead come back and muddy it up all over again.
Moonshine
Footballguy
Short bench league. Depending on how the waivers run I'm probably cutting bait on Alex Collins for McKinnon. Hate to lose out on Collins' potential, but McKinnon just feels like a surer thing at this point. I am hoping to jump back on board after we get through Russell Wilson's bye week (will drop his replacement for Collins, or another lottery ticket back like him), which means this week is probably the week he blows up. Enjoy the ride, fellas.
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Weebs210
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Name these RBs over the last 4 weeks:
RB 1: Averaged 11 carries for 57 rushing yards per game
RB 2: Averaged 9 carries for 65 yards per game
RB 3: Averaged 19 carries for 65 yards per game
RB4: Averaged 17 carries for 69 yards per game
Next question: How many of these are people talking about cutting this week?
Not sure how to do one of those hidden things for the answers... but I'll let you guys stew on these names above for a minute
RB 1: Averaged 11 carries for 57 rushing yards per game
RB 2: Averaged 9 carries for 65 yards per game
RB 3: Averaged 19 carries for 65 yards per game
RB4: Averaged 17 carries for 69 yards per game
Next question: How many of these are people talking about cutting this week?
Not sure how to do one of those hidden things for the answers... but I'll let you guys stew on these names above for a minute
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Chaka
Footballguy
Weebs210
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Clearly, but this is where we want all the news. IIRC Rainey also has issues with fumbling.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
RB1: Demarco Murray
RB2: Alex Collins
RB3: Jay Ajayi
RB4: Jordan Howard
3 of those 4 were drafted in the first 10 RBs, one was a FA. And people are talking about cutting!?!
Rove!
Footballguy
Hard to judge value without knowing the contributions to the pass game, game scripts and opponents faced...
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I only get fantasy points for statistics. I left out their passing/receiving stats because I don't have time to look those up TBH, but aside from Murray I don't think any of them are major players in the passing game.
Just interesting that the guy has been pretty consistent with his yardage with limited usage and people are talking about cutting bait prior to week 6... Ajayi was in the same situation a year ago and he helped me go the distance last year, even though he was inconsistent. Collins could be the same.
If he had the same number of carries as Howard or Ajayi, by all accounts Collins would be a RB1 right now... based on his averages. And it's realistic that he could get those touches/carries.
