RB Alex Collins, SEA (2 Viewers)

[FF Ninja]

Your interpretation of the statistics has a confidence interval of about 2%. You don't seem to understand that you haven't established correlation or cause, as you continue to say you have no idea why he faded. You can't have correlation without causation.  

Haha, did you just take intro to stat or something? You keep throwing out terms without really understanding them. That first sentence is gibberish. I get what you are trying to say, but instead you sound like you are taking your first high school stat class and are trying too hard to sound smart.

I will repeat this one last time: none of us know why he faded. Anything any of us say would be speculation (personally, I think his his ypc under a low workload was due to chance occurrence and I think his low ypc under a high workload was due to a crappy offense), but the reason doesn't matter. All that matters is that it happened. If you invested your life savings in a stock and it was dropping 5% per day, would you say, "screw it, I'm leaving it in there because nobody can tell me why it is dropping"? Doesn't matter why. The result is what matters.

Look, by now it is obvious you are over invested in Collins. Either you paid too much or you need him to succeed too badly to see things clearly. I don't own Collins, Kerryon, or Freeman in any leagues. I think there's a chance Collins has a better career than those two guys, but I wouldn't bet on it. You clearly would. Good luck with that.

 

[bostonfred]

This is a key point.  The ravens felt good enough about their RBS this year to skip over one of the best Rb classes in recent memory with this draft.  They could have taken Chubb, guice, Ronald jones, kerryon, royce, etc.  

Alex Collins is a huge reason why they skipped out on rb in the draft.  He’s going to eat.  

The ravens sold out to get their qb of the future in the range where those guys were going.  That has very little to do with their like or dislike of the running backs on there roster 

 

[FF Ninja]

This is a key point.  The ravens felt good enough about their RBS this year to skip over one of the best Rb classes in recent memory with this draft.  They could have taken Chubb, guice, Ronald jones, kerryon, royce, etc.  

Alex Collins is a huge reason why they skipped out on rb in the draft.  He’s going to eat.  

They were all gone by their 3rd pick. They used 1.25 on a TE which was a clear need (not sure Hurst was the right choice, though) and then traded up to get LJ at 1.32. The next pick was 3.22 and by that time the big 8 (huge talent drop off, IMO) were gone.

If they had more picks then this might be worth reading into, but you can't really expect a team with as many glaring holes as Baltimore to spend a 1st on RB which is a position that rarely goes in the 1st round anymore these days.

IMO, the small contract is more telling than the lack of using a 1st @ RB.   

 

[Interseptopus]

This is a key point.  The ravens felt good enough about their RBS this year to skip over one of the best Rb classes in recent memory with this draft.  They could have taken Chubb, guice, Ronald jones, kerryon, royce, etc.  

Alex Collins is a huge reason why they skipped out on rb in the draft.  He’s going to eat.  

When you're a bad NFL team, you have lots of holes. While RB may be seen as a need, TE and QB were greater needs than RB. They have bodies at RB who can make due for now. Baltimore isn't winning the Super Bowl this year. They aren't one guy away. So if they need to muddle through a year of a mess at RB, so be it. As someone mentioned earlier, they see Baltimore as a major player for Bell this next off season. Maybe Baltimore sees it that way too. Why draft a RB now, and by the time you're relevant you've put on some significant miles? and who knows if he works out? In some cases FA is the better way to go. 

They need to build a new franchise, and that typically starts with a QB. Many of the Super Bowl winning teams in recent memory also have had a play maker at TE. 

Haha, did you just take intro to stat or something? You keep throwing out terms without really understanding them. That first sentence is gibberish. I get what you are trying to say, but instead you sound like you are taking your first high school stat class and are trying too hard to sound smart.

I will repeat this one last time: none of us know why he faded. Anything any of us say would be speculation (personally, I think his his ypc under a low workload was due to chance occurrence and I think his low ypc under a high workload was due to a crappy offense), but the reason doesn't matter. All that matters is that it happened. If you invested your life savings in a stock and it was dropping 5% per day, would you say, "screw it, I'm leaving it in there because nobody can tell me why it is dropping"? Doesn't matter why. The result is what matters.

Look, by now it is obvious you are over invested in Collins. Either you paid too much or you need him to succeed too badly to see things clearly. I don't own Collins, Kerryon, or Freeman in any leagues. I think there's a chance Collins has a better career than those two guys, but I wouldn't bet on it. You clearly would. Good luck with that.

He made some banking/mortgage reference earlier too. I have a feeling he works in the financial world, but is pretending to know statistics. Interesting that he said you didn't prove correlation or causation at all. Those are opposite things. Correlation is not causation. And actually, it's been well established that an increase in carries/work load has correlated with a decrease in YPC. As you said, no one knows why, but it doesn't matter. It happened. 

I still like Collins but he is a 50/50 risk for bust IMO. He has hype that ignores how he ended the season. I think that's important. Look at the Jones/Williams debate. People reference how Williams ended the season as the starter when both were healthy, and he looked better at the end than he did at the start of the season. This is true, and a valid point. At this point next year Collins could be in a Rawls-type situation. A young 20 something RB who is on a roster bubble, but had those 8 games of success. 

 

[bostonfred]

Haha, did you just take intro to stat or something? You keep throwing out terms without really understanding them. That first sentence is gibberish. I get what you are trying to say, but instead you sound like you are taking your first high school stat class and are trying too hard to sound smart.

I will repeat this one last time: none of us know why he faded. Anything any of us say would be speculation (personally, I think his his ypc under a low workload was due to chance occurrence and I think his low ypc under a high workload was due to a crappy offense)

I don't think it's fair to say he cooled off in the second half. He had a weird year. Looking closer it really isn't that impressive.

Week 1 no carries
Week 2 vs browns 7 for 42 with a fumble lost
Week 3 at jaguars 9 for 82. But... all of it came in garbage time. He had one rush for 2 yards, down 37-0 in the third quarter, and ran for 16 yards from the shotgun. The rest came when they were trailing 44-0 and he had runs of 10, 2, 6, 18 and 19
Week 4 Steelers 9 for 82 with a fumble lost. 23 yard run on the first play of the game, followed by a run for -1 on first down. Runs of 6, 4, and then -4 with a fumble. 50 yard run setting up a td pass. Runs of 2, 1 and 1 yards the rest of the game.
Week 5 at Oakland runs of 5, 25 and 4 on their first drive. Then he cooled off, with runs of 4, 1, -3, 6, 0, 2, 2, 7, 2.
Week 6 vs Chicago. He really had one big run.  runs of 5, 1, 8, 0, then a big run of 30, followed by 2, 2, 4, -3, 10, 3, 6, 4, 2, and 0.
Week 7 at Vikings not good, but the Vikings are a strong d. Runs of 5, 0, 4, -1, 4, 2, 8, 4, -1, 5.
Week 8 Collins had 18 rushes for 113 yards in a 40-0 blowout as the dolphins just sucked at everything. The ravens led 20-0 in the first half and scored three defensive touchdowns in the second half.
Week 9 13 rushes for 43 yards in a close loss to Tennessee with runs of 14, 1, -1, 2 1, 4, 4, -1, 0, 1, 2, 14, 2.  
Week 10 at green bay - another blowout 23-0. With two minutes left in the game, Huntley threw his third interception of the game at the 3 yard line and Collins scored his first touchdown of the season.

His three big games were really weeks 12, 13 and 14 when he had 16 for 60 and a touchdown, 15 for 75 and two touchdowns, and 18 for 120 with a touchdown against the Steelers, although that was soon after the Ryan Shazier injury.

Then he had ugly games against the colts and browns in weeks 14 and 15 with a total of 30 rushes for 70 yards, and finished with a solid 20/78/1 in the loss to the Bengals that ultimately propelled the bills to their first playoff game in years.

For most of the season it seems like he had a lot of runs of -1, 0, 1 and 2 yards with a handful of bigger runs sprinkled in.  That isn't a guy I want to build my offense around, and certainly not irreplaceable. 

 

[Football Jones]

The ravens sold out to get their qb of the future in the range where those guys were going.  That has very little to do with their like or dislike of the running backs on there roster 

Can’t say I agree, Fred. The Ravens didn’t draft a RB at all. Not only did they pass on the big-8, there were some nice sleeper-types & they passed on those, as well (like Jaylen Samuels).

No doubt Collins had something to do with that. We don’t know how much of a factor it was, but totally passing on what is probably the best overall RB class we’ve seen in years means something.

It’s certainly a feather in Collins’ cap.

 

[FF Ninja]

I still like Collins but he is a 50/50 risk for bust IMO. He has hype that ignores how he ended the season. I think that's important. Look at the Jones/Williams debate. People reference how Williams ended the season as the starter when both were healthy, and he looked better at the end than he did at the start of the season. This is true, and a valid point. At this point next year Collins could be in a Rawls-type situation. A young 20 something RB who is on a roster bubble, but had those 8 games of success. 

It's funny you mention the GB backfield because I've been trying to pair Collins and Dixon just as I've been trying to pair JW and AJ. It hasn't worked too well because I haven't been able to get Collins cheaply enough and I usually get outbid for AJ, but I have landed the JW/AJ combo once so far. But mostly I just end up with JW (~4%) and Dixon (~1%). I'm fine with it, but it certainly didn't accomplish my goal of locking up a backfield. FWIW, Collins has been going around 6-7% and Jones (before suspension) was going around 4-5%.

 

[bostonfred]

Can’t say I agree, Fred. The Ravens didn’t draft a RB at all. Not only did they pass on the big-8, there were some nice sleeper-types & they passed on those, as well (like Jaylen Samuels).

No doubt Collins had something to do with that. We don’t know how much of a factor it was, but totally passing on what is probably the best overall RB class we’ve seen in years means something.

It’s certainly a feather in Collins’ cap.

That's partially true.  It's a statement that they were willing to go into 2018 without adding a rookie running back to their backfield.  But they spent a first and third on tight ends, a second and fourth on a quarterback, a third and two sixths on offensive line and a fourth and fifth on wide receivers. They had a lot of needs.  

They also may see Dixon as their big addition, and there are still free agents on the market, so if it's an endorsement of their backfield options, it's not necessarily an endorsement of Collins specifically.  

 

[Buckna]

Despite the obvious need in the four years since Ray Rice was suspended/kicked out of the league, the Ravens haven't spent anything higher than a 4th rounder (Dixon in '16, Allen in '15) on a runningback. They've had a lot of needs at other positions, but maybe they just don't value runningback's very highly

 

[ZWK]

For most of the season it seems like he had a lot of runs of -1, 0, 1 and 2 yards with a handful of bigger runs sprinkled in.  That isn't a guy I want to build my offense around, and certainly not irreplaceable. 

Every RB has lots of runs that get stuffed - last year 46% of all carries went for 2 yards or less. Collins was better than average at cranking out solid 4+ yard gains, as you can see from his heat map (which shows how often his carries gained at least __ yards, compared to other RBs) and his success rate where he ranked 8th in the NFL (success rate is "the percentage of carries where the player gains 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down").

 

[FF Ninja]

Which season is better?

Player A (age 23): 198 carries 952 yards 7 TD, 40 receptions 319 yards 0 TDs
Player B (age 23): 212 caries 973 yards 6 TD, 23 receptions 187 yards 0 TDs

 

[Brisco54]

.  That isn't a guy I want to build my offense around, and certainly not irreplaceable. 

Tose that point to Collins lack of stats last year must think Mixon and his 3.5 YPC on the season is not even rosterable.  Wait, you say, you have to take Mixon's stats with a grain of salt because Mixon was running behind one of the worst O-lines and in one of the most predicatable offenses in the league.  Oh wait, that applies to Collins to, doesn't it? 40% of the line, including its best player went on IR preseason.  Collins had 4.6 YPC behind a line where Allen only got 3.9, Terrance West 3.5, and Danny Woodhead 4.0.  

Mixon's 3.5 did beat jeremy Hill's 3.1 YPC, but he was way behind Bernard's 4.4.  Collins was over half a yard better than the other Raven RBs... Mixon was almost a full yard per carry worse that Bernard.

I am a Bengals fan (and am optimistic about Mixon) but what I dont get is why Mixon gets the 'bad o-line" benefit of the doubt but Collins does not. 

What Collins accomplished behind that makeshift line last year was remarkable.  Maybe it was a flash in the pan... who knows... but it was remarkable nonetheless.  Collins went from the street to the bench to the spot starter, to the regular starter, to a top 20 NFL RB for the season.  That's a trajectory I can get behind.  Behind a real line will he top ten?  Doubtful .  top 24.. yeah, (barring injury) that is something I have confidence in.

(Side note:  I have a theory... i think Collins' value suffers because folks cant forget that he got released by seattle.  That's weak reasoning because Collins was not the right RB for seattle.  They demand an RB that will trust the offense and hit the hole whether its there or not.  As the RB vision article pointed out, Collins has rare vision... his skill is to read the defensive players/blocks and predict the hole like leveon bell (though not as good as bell by any means).  That would (and did) get him benched in Seattle but it can be very successful in other systems.)

 

[cloppbeast]

He made some banking/mortgage reference earlier too. I have a feeling he works in the financial world, but is pretending to know statistics. Interesting that he said you didn't prove correlation or causation at all. Those are opposite things. Correlation is not causation. And actually, it's been well established that an increase in carries/work load has correlated with a decrease in YPC. As you said, no one knows why, but it doesn't matter. It happened. 

I should just let it go, but you and ninja man both insulted me. I'll give it one last shot even though we're just arguing over semantics.

Ninja man's argument actually has nothing to do with correlation whatsoever as he's made no effort to establish a linear relationship. His argument is even worse: picking and choosing which carries matter most, claiming Collins faded because he had less efficiency on the more important ones. There's nothing statistical about it at all, in fact. I only harped on it because ninja man guffawed at the eye-ball test sentiment. Well, that's all any of this is.

That's the last I'll say about it.

 

[az_prof]

Which season is better?

Player A (age 23): 198 carries 952 yards 7 TD, 40 receptions 319 yards 0 TDs
Player B (age 23): 212 caries 973 yards 6 TD, 23 receptions 187 yards 0 TDs

Cleveland's offensive line in 2016 was very good; BA offensive line in 2017 was very bad. It is possible that Collins becomes the next Crow but this hardly proves it.

Collin's 2017 production is also comparable to Devonta Freeman's 2017 production; does that mean he is the next Devonta Freeman?  

Also, the claim that he declined at the end of the season and so is not as good as his full season ypc indicates is a weak argument. In fact, others on here in the past have shown that end of year statistics are not good indicators of future success.

Collins had the third best DVOA last year and was 15% above an average RB by this measure.  Doesn't look like a JAG to me.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

 

[cloppbeast]

Which season is better?

Player A (age 23): 198 carries 952 yards 7 TD, 40 receptions 319 yards 0 TDs
Player B (age 23): 212 caries 973 yards 6 TD, 23 receptions 187 yards 0 TDs

So this is a an indictment of Collins? I disagree. In dynasty, if you get a running back who gets a second contract to start for any NFL team, that's a success. I quick review of the 2014 draft, which begot Crowell, reveals only half of the ones selected in the first round in rookie drafts amounted to anything. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Cleveland's offensive line in 2016 was very good; BA offensive line in 2017 was very bad. It is possible that Collins becomes the next Crow but this hardly proves it.

Collin's 2017 production is also comparable to Devonta Freeman's 2017 production; does that mean he is the next Devonta Freeman?  

Also, the claim that he declined at the end of the season and so is not as good as his full season ypc indicates is a weak argument. In fact, others on here in the past have shown that end of year statistics are not good indicators of future success.

False. Cleveland went out and spent big money on free agents between 2016 and 2017 because they knew they needed to improve the line. The truth is Cleveland had a very good LT, but unfortunately it takes 5 guys to make an offensive line.

The point of the comp was that these seasons happen and don't indicate future value. Collins 2017 was actually not as good as Crowell's 2016, and as bad as the Baltimore offense was in 2017, it wasn't as bad as Cleveland's 2016 offense. 

So what is a good indicator of future success? If you say eyeball tests... 

 

[FF Ninja]

So this is a an indictment of Collins? I disagree. In dynasty, if you get a running back who gets a second contract to start for any NFL team, that's a success. I quick review of the 2014 draft which begot Crowell, only half of the ones selected in the first round in rookie drafts amounted to anything. 

Not really. I like Crowell. But he started 2017, after his better-than-Collins-year, and yet his dynasty value is worth very little now. Just pointing out how these things happen. He's lucky, though. He gets a chance to revamp his value on the Jets. He could've easily landed in a Hyde-like situation where he'd get passed over for a rookie. I'm not sure Collins will be as lucky as Crowell was, much less be worth a 2019 1.06 or better.

And I'm sorry but there's no positive spin on a 1-year $630k contract. That's not success. That's not a vote of confidence. That's thin ice.

 

[cloppbeast]

Not really. I like Crowell. But he started 2017, after his better-than-Collins-year, and yet his dynasty value is worth very little now. Just pointing out how these things happen. He's lucky, though. He gets a chance to revamp his value on the Jets. He could've easily landed in a Hyde-like situation where he'd get passed over for a rookie. I'm not sure Collins will be as lucky as Crowell was, much less be worth a 2019 1.06 or better.

And I'm sorry but there's no positive spin on a 1-year $630k contract. That's not success. That's not a vote of confidence. That's thin ice.

Crowell has no trade value. He's an absolute hold as he's way more valuable than consensus. 

 

[az_prof]

False. Cleveland went out and spent big money on free agents between 2016 and 2017 because they knew they needed to improve the line. The truth is Cleveland had a very good LT, but unfortunately it takes 5 guys to make an offensive line.

The point of the comp was that these seasons happen and don't indicate future value. Collins 2017 was actually not as good as Crowell's 2016, and as bad as the Baltimore offense was in 2017, it wasn't as bad as Cleveland's 2016 offense. 

So what is a good indicator of future success? If you say eyeball tests... 

There is no secret sauce that can predict year to year success--if there were, this game wouldn't be very interesting.  In my twenty years of experience, the eye ball test in a real NFL game situations, over multiple games, is one of the best.  

I am not sure about DVOA but that seems to give a strong endorsement to Collins too.

 

[Interseptopus]

I should just let it go, but you and ninja man both insulted me. I'll give it one last shot even though we're just arguing over semantics.

Ninja man's argument actually has nothing to do with correlation whatsoever as he's made no effort to establish a linear relationship. His argument is even worse: picking and choosing which carries matter most, claiming Collins faded because he had less efficiency on the more important ones. There's nothing statistical about it at all, in fact. I only harped on it because ninja man guffawed at the eye-ball test sentiment. Well, that's all any of this is.

That's the last I'll say about it.

I think there is a lot of nitpicking here. There is a correlation: more carries = less efficiency. He faded in the last 8 games compared to the first 8 games. I feel like that's pretty clear. I owned Collins last year and felt like I missed a perfect sell high opportunity for him when he started to fade. 

I think you're asking the impossible from Ninja; you're asking him to come up with a cause for Collins' fade. No one knows, and to discuss it would be a waste of time because it would be pure speculation. Maybe he had a nagging minor soreness that wasn't enough to land him on the injury report. Maybe the OL wasn't happy with how he walked through the locker room so they didn't block well for him. Maybe he was paid by the Russians (common theme for the blame game, so let's go with it!). At the end of the day it doesn't matter why he faded. All that matters is that he did, in fact, fade as the season wore on. That's something worth bringing up when discussing Collins' negatives. There are a lot of positives as well. However, there are enough negatives for me to say (in my own opinion) that there is a 50/50 shot at Collins being worthless 6 months from now. 

I would agree that taking out games with a brace for Dixon or odd numbered Sundays because odd numbers are unlucky is cherry picking stats. So let's not do that. Let's look at Collins' first 8 games and last 8 games. That tells a story that isn't all sunshine and rainbows for Collins starting out in 2018. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Crowell has no trade value. He's an absolute hold as he's way more valuable than consensus. 

I've seen him go for 2nds in multiple leagues, so he has some trade value, but I agree he's a hold.

 

[az_prof]

Someone please point me to evidence that how a player ends the last two games is an indication of future success or failure? Because I recall this coming up in past and being debunked--certainly where a player ends with a few strong games and people tried to predict future success.  The sample sizes are so small when looking at a single season that you can't easily use sub-sets in a meaningful way.

And I am not even convinced the claim is factually true--certainly not from a fantasy perspective.  Obsessing over game by game yards per carry is not very meaningful.

In ppr:

Week 13: 23.8 points

Week 14. 24.6 points

Week 15: 10.2 points

Week 16: 9.6 points

Week 17: 17.6 points

Looks to me like 3 of the final 5 games he was an above average running back in terms of performance.

I agree that he is no sure thing to be a top 10 RB, but he is the starter on his team after a good first year as a starter.  

 

[Buckna]

Cleveland's offensive line in 2016 was very good; BA offensive line in 2017 was very bad. It is possible that Collins becomes the next Crow but this hardly proves it.

Collin's 2017 production is also comparable to Devonta Freeman's 2017 production; does that mean he is the next Devonta Freeman?  

Also, the claim that he declined at the end of the season and so is not as good as his full season ypc indicates is a weak argument. In fact, others on here in the past have shown that end of year statistics are not good indicators of future success.

I keep seeing this mentioned everywhere, is this being overblown? I didn't watch Baltimore much last year so don't have any first hand observance, but I know they had two projected starters go down in training camp and then Yanda in like the 1st game. Their patchwork line must have played pretty dang well though as PFF rated them #18 overall at the end of 2017 and more recently rated them #5 in pass blocking, and that was without Yanda who is a stud pass-blocker. PFF slobbered all over Ryan Jensen's break out play at Center last year and is now the highest paid Center in the league in Tampa. Baltimore took a gamble on Austin Howard after Alex Lewis went down and he parlayed a good year at RT and just cashed in big-time with Indy. James Hurst went from terrible to what must be a pretty good left guard by the end of 2017 as the team just resigned him to starter level money.

 

[Tanner9919]

what's the floor here, he's  one of the best #2 RBs in fantasy football? I'll take that every day. if he gets 1000 rush yards, 7-8 TDs , where do I sign up? 

Crowell will be very good in a Jets uni, let's not dismiss him here. you'll want to have him on your radar come draft day. the Jets have turned the corner, they kept the coaching staff intact. McCown's stats extrapolated over a 16 game season put him at QB 10 ( see story on PFF about this). they're not push-overs. they're a competitive team. dont want to get off-topic about Collins..

there is no competition from other RBs in Baltimore - they're largely bums and scabs. one has bad knees can't stay healthy.the other is an underacheiver. Collins might have fumblitis, but it's pretty clear that he's the #1 RB in Baltimore, for whatever that's worth. like I said if he gets you 1000/8 you'll take that every day.

if you worry about him slowing down towards the end of last season, how do you explain Kareem Hunt disappearing in at least 6 games in 2017, and aside from a 327 yards game, he too faded badly down the stretch). who knows why Collins faded. let's just wait-n-see what happens in a couple of weeks, specifically next week when the Ravens open camp..

my guess is , Collins becomes a very reliable RB2 or terrific flex-play option, with low end RB1 production possibility..

 

[Cobbler1]

I keep seeing this mentioned everywhere, is this being overblown? I didn't watch Baltimore much last year so don't have any first hand observance, but I know they had two projected starters go down in training camp and then Yanda in like the 1st game. Their patchwork line must have played pretty dang well though as PFF rated them #18 overall at the end of 2017 and more recently rated them #5 in pass blocking, and that was without Yanda who is a stud pass-blocker. PFF slobbered all over Ryan Jensen's break out play at Center last year and is now the highest paid Center in the league in Tampa. Baltimore took a gamble on Austin Howard after Alex Lewis went down and he parlayed a good year at RT and just cashed in big-time with Indy. James Hurst went from terrible to what must be a pretty good left guard by the end of 2017 as the team just resigned him to starter level money.

I think the schemes helped out a line overall mostly devoid of talent last year. Ronnie Stanley was pretty solid especially since he was left on an island a lot. Howard was ok. Jensen was good. The guards really were bad especially in the running game which was expected with both starting guards going down. The good news is Alex Lewis will be back after being pretty good at guard for a rookie in 2016. And Marshal Yanda’s return can’t be overstated as he’s an absolute stud in all facets of the game and will make guys around him better. I think I recall the line that started Stanley and Lewis as rookies along with Yanda in 2016 graded out in the top 10 by PFF. I’ve always thought Hurst was pretty bad and he’s not going to start this year unless there’s another rash of injuries. Nico Siragusa is another guard who went down prior to 2017. He’s added depth at guard and can maybe compete at center. I’m optimistic that the line in 2018 with Stanley Lewis Bozeman Yanda Brown will be a good deal better than last year. Brown fell to the 3rd round because of an awful combine but on the field he was a first round talent in college. Bozeman started a couple seasons at Alabama and is 6’5 316. 

Side note- I’m not sure how the line graded so well on pass protection. It seemed like any time Flacco tried to look downfield the result was pressure and us Ravens fans getting to watch Flacco awkwardly “sprint” out of the pocket and toss the ball away. I don’t know how that or the fact that the passing game often was reduced to 3 yard outs by the TEs to get the ball out before pressure came is captured in these grades. 

 

[rickyg]

Can’t say I agree, Fred. The Ravens didn’t draft a RB at all. Not only did they pass on the big-8, there were some nice sleeper-types & they passed on those, as well (like Jaylen Samuels).

No doubt Collins had something to do with that. We don’t know how much of a factor it was, but totally passing on what is probably the best overall RB class we’ve seen in years means something.

It’s certainly a feather in Collins’ cap.

Bingo 

 

[Buckna]

I think the schemes helped out a line overall mostly devoid of talent last year. Ronnie Stanley was pretty solid especially since he was left on an island a lot. Howard was ok. Jensen was good. The guards really were bad especially in the running game which was expected with both starting guards going down. The good news is Alex Lewis will be back after being pretty good at guard for a rookie in 2016. And Marshal Yanda’s return can’t be overstated as he’s an absolute stud in all facets of the game and will make guys around him better. I think I recall the line that started Stanley and Lewis as rookies along with Yanda in 2016 graded out in the top 10 by PFF. I’ve always thought Hurst was pretty bad and he’s not going to start this year unless there’s another rash of injuries. Nico Siragusa is another guard who went down prior to 2017. He’s added depth at guard and can maybe compete at center. I’m optimistic that the line in 2018 with Stanley Lewis Bozeman Yanda Brown will be a good deal better than last year. Brown fell to the 3rd round because of an awful combine but on the field he was a first round talent in college. Bozeman started a couple seasons at Alabama and is 6’5 316. 

Side note- I’m not sure how the line graded so well on pass protection. It seemed like any time Flacco tried to look downfield the result was pressure and us Ravens fans getting to watch Flacco awkwardly “sprint” out of the pocket and toss the ball away. I don’t know how that or the fact that the passing game often was reduced to 3 yard outs by the TEs to get the ball out before pressure came is captured in these grades. 

5th fewest pressures, 2nd fewest sacks in the league. This despite Baltimore having the 11th most pass attempts.

Edit: My speculation would be that when Flacco drops back he either holds the ball too long and/or that abysmal group of pass catchers resulted in him never having anyone open to throw it to which fed the perception that the o'line was much worse than reality.

 

[cloppbeast]

Look, by now it is obvious you are over invested in Collins. Either you paid too much or you need him to succeed too badly to see things clearly. 

This coming from a Dixon owner. 

 

[FF Ninja]

This coming from a Dixon owner. 

Dude, I got him for $1-$2 ($200 budget) at the end of a couple redraft auctions as like my RB8. Trust me, I'm not in the same boat as you desperate Collins owners. 

 

[cloppbeast]

Dude, I got him for $1-$2 ($200 budget) at the end of a couple redraft auctions as like my RB8. Trust me, I'm not in the same boat as you desperate Collins owners. 

Own Collins in 1 dynasty league out of 4. And got him in a MFL10 out of 9. Not over invested.

Your go-to adhom argument is just hilarious tho.

 

[FF Ninja]

Own Collins in 1 dynasty league out of 4. And got him in a MFL10 out of 9. Not over invested.

Whatever the reason, you come off too desperate to be able to analyze him objectively. 

 

[Todem]

I own him in my one and only Dynasty league. Waiver pick up for 1 buck in week 2 or 3 I believe. I believe in the kid. He is a baller. He is the #1 back in Baltimore and I see him as a solid RB3 option with upside to a RB 2 if he get’s more involved in the passing game and goaline package.

Nothing not to like here. He looked damn good last season.

 

[bostonfred]

Stop the bickering.  

Collins looks like the starter headed into camp and it would be an upset for Dixon to completely overtake him.  Allen is very unlikely to overtake him, which leaves free agents.  There's still a guy or two worth adding but for now this looks like Collins job. 

Collins is pretty good. He's not great. He runs hard and had some big runs. In good match ups he did pretty well, although he stunk it up against Indy and Cleveland in the fantasy playoffs.  

If he gets a 60/40 split or better he'll be a reasonable rb2.   But he's a risk to get less than that.  There's 4 ways that could happen - he gets hurt, he plays bad, someone else outplays him, or they bring someone else in (Murray?). That's 3 more ways that Todd Gurley.  Adjust accordingly.  

Personally I think he's a mediocre stop gap level guy. He wasn't highly touted, was a 5th round pick, got cut by his original team within a year and was the starter by default on a team with bad running backs.  I think the ravens liked Dixon a lot before him and will give him a chance in camp/ pre season, but they'll never say so to the media or anywhere that Dixon or Collins would hear about it.  I think he's being over drafted as a result but if he wins the job he'll be a bargain.  

It seems like a lot of owners see the bargain and not the risk.  That's usually a sign that someone is getting over drafted.  He's getting drafted at the bottom of the starting backs, instead of the top of the question marks, but if he slides a little I'll take him in the hopes of pairing him with Dixon later. I do think this will be a decently productive backfield. I don't blame anyone for taking him a little earlier than I would but I'd recommend getting Dixon. I certainly wouldn't recommend making Collins a priority,  reach over adp target until mid August, then all bets are off.

Next. 

 

[kface]

Stop the bickering.  

Collins looks like the starter headed into camp and it would be an upset for Dixon to completely overtake him.  Allen is very unlikely to overtake him, which leaves free agents.  There's still a guy or two worth adding but for now this looks like Collins job. 

Collins is pretty good. He's not great. He runs hard and had some big runs. In good match ups he did pretty well, although he stunk it up against Indy and Cleveland in the fantasy playoffs.  

If he gets a 60/40 split or better he'll be a reasonable rb2.   But he's a risk to get less than that.  There's 4 ways that could happen - he gets hurt, he plays bad, someone else outplays him, or they bring someone else in (Murray?). That's 3 more ways that Todd Gurley.  Adjust accordingly.  

Personally I think he's a mediocre stop gap level guy. He wasn't highly touted, was a 5th round pick, got cut by his original team within a year and was the starter by default on a team with bad running backs.  I think the ravens liked Dixon a lot before him and will give him a chance in camp/ pre season, but they'll never say so to the media or anywhere that Dixon or Collins would hear about it.  I think he's being over drafted as a result but if he wins the job he'll be a bargain.  

It seems like a lot of owners see the bargain and not the risk.  That's usually a sign that someone is getting over drafted.  He's getting drafted at the bottom of the starting backs, instead of the top of the question marks, but if he slides a little I'll take him in the hopes of pairing him with Dixon later. I do think this will be a decently productive backfield. I don't blame anyone for taking him a little earlier than I would but I'd recommend getting Dixon. I certainly wouldn't recommend making Collins a priority,  reach over adp target until mid August, then all bets are off.

Next. 

solid analysis right here

if you pay attention on this board every rb in the nfl is a potential stud waiting to happen...which isn't untrue but so much needs to happen for that to work out.  Collins is one of those guys.  If he gets 90 percent then he's rb2, otherwise he's just another guy

 

[FF Ninja]

Your go-to adhom argument is just hilarious tho.

 Calling it my go-to when I led in with analysis you chose to ignore is quite disingenuous. I've been discussing the player and his situation extensively in here. I'm merely also pointing out that your bias is showing. I've said repeatedly that I like Collins as a player, but have to take issue with the stance that he's easily worth a 2019 1.06+ or that he's an easy choice over Kerryon/Freeman, yet you keep calling me a naysayer, despite my opinion likely falling in with the majority of fantasy owners. We're just going to have to agree to disagree and you can bump this next year if people are trading early 1sts for Collins and I'll eat crow.

 

[steelers1080]

Collins is probably going to end the year as a solid RB2/3 based purely on his opportunity, but he does present a very low downside. The coaching staff has repeatedly avoided praising him or calling him their guy, he could easily be embroiled in a RBBC with Buck and Dixon. I'm avoiding Collins because I don't see any long term value. I did get Dixon for free off waivers, but he's the first guy I'm going to cut after our rookie draft and they become available for Free Agency.

Collins has the curse of being a very solid but not exciting RB. The coaching staff also has very little invested in him. If he had been drafted by the Ravens then I'd be higher on him.

 

[cloppbeast]

 Calling it my go-to when I led in with analysis you chose to ignore is quite disingenuous. I've been discussing the player and his situation extensively in here. I'm merely also pointing out that your bias is showing. I've said repeatedly that I like Collins as a player, but have to take issue with the stance that he's easily worth a 2019 1.06+ or that he's an easy choice over Kerryon/Freeman, yet you keep calling me a naysayer, despite my opinion likely falling in with the majority of fantasy owners. We're just going to have to agree to disagree and you can bump this next year if people are trading early 1sts for Collins and I'll eat crow.

Just a little peeved that you're calling me biased because I disagree with your analysis and your opinion. It's a quirk of mine. I understand you're in line with the consensus, so I guess I disagree with the consensus. NBD. Sometimes you do also. Does that make you biased?

We can disagree, but don't call me partial because of it. It's your go-to since you do it all the time. Not everybody who disagrees with you uses rose colored shades because of some sort of ownership of said player or his back up. Again, it's just a quirk of mine to get irritated by it. Carry on. 

And I'm not going to bump it. You can if you want to eat crow. It's the analysis not the results that are important imo.

 

[cloppbeast]

Collins is probably going to end the year as a solid RB2/3 based purely on his opportunity, but he does present a very low downside. The coaching staff has repeatedly avoided praising him or calling him their guy, he could easily be embroiled in a RBBC with Buck and Dixon. I'm avoiding Collins because I don't see any long term value. I did get Dixon for free off waivers, but he's the first guy I'm going to cut after our rookie draft and they become available for Free Agency.

Collins has the curse of being a very solid but not exciting RB. The coaching staff also has very little invested in him. If he had been drafted by the Ravens then I'd be higher on him.

The Ravens don't have anything invested in him, true. But Harbs has called him the starter. See page 58 of this thread for the article.

 

[FF Ninja]

Just a little peeved that you're calling me biased because I disagree with your analysis and your opinion. It's a quirk of mine. I understand you're in line with the consensus, so I guess I disagree with the consensus. NBD. Sometimes you do also. Does that make you biased?

We can disagree, but don't call me partial because of it. It's your go-to since you do it all the time. Not everybody who disagrees with you uses rose colored shades because of some sort of ownership of said player or his back up. Again, it's just a quirk of mine to get irritated by it. Carry on. 

I've very methodically laid out why I'd prefer guys like Freeman or Kerryon over Collins, but you've failed to provide anything useful on your end. You attempt to focus on only one point and to then kneecap that point by saying something along the lines of "if you can't provide the reason behind why Collins faded under a starter's workload then it doesn't matter that it happened." To me when someone is willing to sidestep a point like that it points to bias. You seem to want to believe what you already believe and are willing to hand wave off any arguments contrary to it.

I'm all about going against the grain. I don't fault you for doing so. I fault you for not being able to articulate good reasons for doing so... and for calling me a naysayer when I'm actually rather neutral on him and in line with the consensus. 

 

[cloppbeast]

I've very methodically laid out why I'd prefer guys like Freeman or Kerryon over Collins, but you've failed to provide anything useful on your end. You attempt to focus on only one point and to then kneecap that point by saying something along the lines of "if you can't provide the reason behind why Collins faded under a starter's workload then it doesn't matter that it happened." To me when someone is willing to sidestep a point like that it points to bias. You seem to want to believe what you already believe and are willing to hand wave off any arguments contrary to it.

I'm all about going against the grain. I don't fault you for doing so. I fault you for not being able to articulate good reasons for doing so... and for calling me a naysayer when I'm actually rather neutral on him and in line with the consensus. 

Harbs has already called Collins the starter, and he's had a productive season already. Whatever the odds of him continuing to do well, they're higher than any random rookie RB you can get after 1.06 in 2018 ever doing it in the first place. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Harbs has already called Collins the starter, and he's had a productive season already. Whatever the odds of him continuing to do well, they're higher than any random rookie you can get after 1.06 in 2018 ever doing it in the first place. 

FreeBagel actually had some good data on this in the general dynasty thread. One season of production was surprisingly not very indicative of future success. 

 

[cloppbeast]

FreeBagel actually had some good data on this in the general dynasty thread. One season of production was surprisingly not very indicative of future success. 

How indicative is being a third round rookie of future success?

 

[FF Ninja]

How indicative is being a third round rookie of future success?

I'm getting deja vu here... Historically, I'm guessing not so great (I haven't checked, but I'll take your word), but with the recent trend of RBs slipping deeper and deeper into the draft, I think we will see more and more third round backs succeeding. Due to this trend, sometimes it's good to look closer at their rank within the class than actual draft position, although I do take both into consideration. With this being a stacked class, I don't ding Freeman very hard for being the 8th RB off the board (normally that would be pretty scary). I think being a very high 3rd round pick is pretty solid in this day and age. I've said this all before, but I also think Booker isn't as good as Dixon while I think Denver will be a better offense than Baltimore. I also think Freeman will get more chances to prove himself (due to being in the league two fewer seasons than Collins and requiring a higher draft capitol investment) than Collins who is on his second team, was a 5th round prospect, and only on a small contract. For these reasons, Freeman's got a higher ceiling and lower bust risk, IMO. Kerryon was an early 2nd round pick, which I'd think would appeal to you, yet he's actually been going after Freeman in dynasty drafts. I'm guessing you keep naming Freeman due to his draft selection and ignoring Kerryon because he doesn't fit the 3rd round bust narrative you've taken a shining to.

 

[cloppbeast]

I'm getting deja vu here... Historically, I'm guessing not so great (I haven't checked, but I'll take your word), but with the recent trend of RBs slipping deeper and deeper into the draft, I think we will see more and more third round backs succeeding. Due to this trend, sometimes it's good to look closer at their rank within the class than actual draft position, although I do take both into consideration. With this being a stacked class, I don't ding Freeman very hard for being the 8th RB off the board (normally that would be pretty scary). I think being a very high 3rd round pick is pretty solid in this day and age. I've said this all before, but I also think Booker isn't as good as Dixon while I think Denver will be a better offense than Baltimore. I also think Freeman will get more chances to prove himself (due to being in the league two fewer seasons than Collins and requiring a higher draft capitol investment) than Collins who is on his second team, was a 5th round prospect, and only on a small contract. For these reasons, Freeman's got a higher ceiling and lower bust risk, IMO. Kerryon was an early 2nd round pick, which I'd think would appeal to you, yet he's actually been going after Freeman in dynasty drafts. I'm guessing you keep naming Freeman due to his draft selection and ignoring Kerryon because he doesn't fit the 3rd round bust narrative you've taken a shining to.

So you're pulling a "yeah, but...." Ok. But I thought your analysis was superior to the "eye-ball test"?

 

[FF Ninja]

So you're pulling a "yeah, but...." Ok. But I thought your analysis was superior to the "eye-ball test"?

No, I'm saying what was true about 3rd round RBs 10 years ago isn't true anymore. We recently had a draft where no RBs were selected at all in the first round. Things are changing. While the RB is still valuable in fantasy, it is being devalued in the NFL. I hate to generalize, but I'd say loosely the 3rd round is the new 2nd round for RBs.

 

[cloppbeast]

No, I'm saying what was true about 3rd round RBs 10 years ago isn't true anymore. We recently had a draft where no RBs were selected at all in the first round. Things are changing. While the RB is still valuable in fantasy, it is being devalued in the NFL. I hate to generalize, but I'd say loosely the 3rd round is the new 2nd round for RBs.

Whatever you say.

So how indicative of future success is being a 2nd round running back?

 

[FF Ninja]

Whatever you say.

So how indicative of future success is being a 2nd round running back?

I believe the technical term is "pretty good."

 

[Steeler]

Stop the bickering.  

Nice try  

 

[Steelers4Life]

People are really overthinking this.

Collins is the most talented runner and an OK receiving back on a team that wants to feature him, didn't draft any RB in a loaded RB draft, and will be on an offense with improved pass catchers, a healthier and much improved line, and 2 additional rookie TE's who'll keep linebackers honest.  And people want to nitpick about YPC over a handful of games last year during his first extended look when his overall numbers were strong?

He didn't even land in Baltimore until September last year and looked strong.  He ran hard and showed explosiveness.  And the Ravens clearly like him and don't have a QB who'll be airing it out all the time.  Unless you believe Allen or Dixon will unseat him, which to me is highly unlikely, you're looking at a soon-to-be 24 year old starting RB with some history of success and both a relatively high floor AND ceiling if he stays healthy.  There's really not a lot to dislike about him right now.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

No argument with this narrative. What is hold me back from leading the Collin parade is Morhinweig. My apologies for the repost, but I think it is a mistake to not factor in play calling. 

In Mornhinweg's past 6 seasons as an OC no back has exceeded 212 attempts. Over that same period the average number of carries by a RB1 is 197. It seemed like Morning was up to his old tricks last season. Collins was performing at a high level but Allen was often subbed in at some strange moments. I like what I saw from Collins last year but Morhinweg's history is putting a damper on my enthusiasm.