RB Alex Collins, SEA (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

Which way would you lean on an offer of Alex Collins for a 2019 1st and 2nd (probably in the .05-.08 range)? .25 per touch if it matters.

I would be very uncomfortable trading a first for a guy on a one year, minimum contract for a team that's going through a million changes on offense including all of the receivers and tight ends, they drafted their qb of the future, their gm, and their coach is on the hot seat.  

I would be even more uncomfortable if that guy had the pedigree Collins does.  

I can't even believe people think a first and a second is a reasonable price for him.  

 

[Interseptopus]

^^^ sounds like that guy couldnt swing a trade to get Collins.

yeah hes way too negative. there are some objectively solid points there but the article is almost him trying to convince himself why hes all in om Dixon. 

I shared because it's an interesting take and always good to review the negatives. not that this hasn't been mentioned before. 

one thing I found interesting was his fumble rate. I cant find fumble rate % for all NFL RBS but I remember reading an article about Sony Michels fumbling issues saying he would have been one of the worst in the NFL, and he was 1 fumble every 40 or so touches, if I remember right. I think the average is 1 fumble every 60 or so. This is an important statistic. one I'd be curious to look at further. if his NFL fumble rate is the same as his college, then it's harder to chalk that up as a fluke. 

 

[kutta]

I would be very uncomfortable trading a first for a guy on a one year, minimum contract for a team that's going through a million changes on offense including all of the receivers and tight ends, they drafted their qb of the future, their gm, and their coach is on the hot seat.  

I would be even more uncomfortable if that guy had the pedigree Collins does.  

I can't even believe people think a first and a second is a reasonable price for him.  

I agree. I think people are just pretending Dixon isn’t on the team. No way would I give a first for Collins. 

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

I just accepted a 2019 1st and 2nd for Collins.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

turned down collins for my 1 and 2 this year and my rbs suuuuuuuck   

 

[cloppbeast]

I agree. I think people are just pretending Dixon isn’t on the team. No way would I give a first for Collins. 

Well you have one guy named the starter who has averaged 4.5 ypc on 243 carries. Then another guy who has averaged 4.3 on 88. Are you also in the Melvin Gordon thread beating the drum for Austin Ekeler? (Except Melvin Gordon has even sucked so far....) 

 

[Biabreakable]

I have been checking out the football magazines since those have been coming out recently.

I noted that FF index has Collins as a top 12 RB for redraft.

 

[TripItUp]

I have been checking out the football magazines since those have been coming out recently.

I noted that FF index has Collins as a top 12 RB for redraft.

The fascination with Kenneth Dixon is pretty much only in forums with dynasty owners of Kenneth Dixon, aka the Shark Pool.

 

[cloppbeast]

The fascination with Kenneth Dixon is pretty much only in forums with dynasty owners of Kenneth Dixon, aka the Shark Pool.

I'm honestly not saying the guy sucks or anything, because I haven't watched him. I have no frame reference here. But it's pretty clear Collins has the job and it's his to lose. The threat of some sort of RBBC looms in Morty's offense judging by his history. For Collins though this is not a death sentence. A worse case scenario as lead back of a committee, for a RB on a one year deal, should not scare anybody. So he goes somewhere else? Well then good. Or maybe the Ravens get rid of Morty. Even better.

 

[kutta]

Well you have one guy named the starter who has averaged 4.5 ypc on 243 carries. Then another guy who has averaged 4.3 on 88. Are you also in the Melvin Gordon thread beating the drum for Austin Ekeler? (Except Melvin Gordon has even sucked so far....) 

Well, seeing how Dixon was hurt in preseason and never seemed totally healthy even his rookie yeast, the 4.3 isn’t so bad. And he can catch.

I’m not saying he’s going to move Collins to the bench. But Dixon is a legit contender for carries that Collins didn’t have last year. Thinking he’s just going to get all the carries again, IMO, is a mistake.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Well you have one guy named the starter who has averaged 4.5 ypc on 243 carries. Then another guy who has averaged 4.3 on 88. Are you also in the Melvin Gordon thread beating the drum for Austin Ekeler? (Except Melvin Gordon has even sucked so far....) 

Who is this mystery player that carried the ball 243 times last year for the Ravens? Collins had 212 rush attempt LY.

 

[Cobbler1]

Who is this mystery player that carried the ball 243 times last year for the Ravens? Collins had 212 rush attempt LY.

He’s talking career for the 2 players. Which allows me to mention, lol at the dude who wrote that blurb citing Collins only catching 10/18 targets the last 3 weeks last year and ignoring his career catch rate of over 72% and average of 8 ypr. Sweet 3 game sample size! Collins isn’t DJ or Kamara but his hands are fine. Not a weakness.

 

[Chaka]

People need to stop trotting out Collins season long YPC. And you know why.

 

[cloppbeast]

People need to stop trotting out Collins season long YPC. And you know why.

We don't need to rehash this debate. We'll have to agree to disagree. 

 

[ratbast]

“All along the running back depth chart, from Kenneth Dixon and Javorius Allen to Gus Edwards, this is a competition. The only player I feel exempt is Alex Collins. To me, he is the surefire starter. I’ve watched his footwork the past few practices and he’s capable of cutting quicker than we witnessed last season. Barring anything serious, he’s posting 1,000 yards. He’s also improved in the passing game, which will keep him on the field in third-down situations.” 

-Kyle Barber -Ravens Beatdown, SBNation

 

[Cobbler1]

Collins has outstanding feet. When he comes at a defender with his hair bouncing around and his short choppy steps it has to look like he’s moving in a million different directions at once.  

 

[Chaka]

We don't need to rehash this debate. We'll have to agree to disagree. 

Rehashing it is for people who haven't been part of the discussion previously.

4.6 YPC simply does not tell the story of Collins's season. 

For those who have not seen.

Games 1-4: 25 carries 8.94 YPC

Games 5-8: 55 carries 4.96 YPC

Games 9-12: 64 carries 3.55 YPC

Games 13-16: 68 carries 3.94 YPC

That tells a much different story than 4.6 YPC on the season.

 

[Brisco54]

Rehashing it is for people who haven't been part of the discussion previously.

4.6 YPC simply does not tell the story of Collins's season. 

For those who have not seen.

Games 1-4: 25 carries 8.94 YPC

Games 5-8: 55 carries 4.96 YPC

Games 9-12: 64 carries 3.55 YPC

Games 13-16: 68 carries 3.94 YPC

That tells a much different story than 4.6 YPC on the season.

Does it? 

Over his last five games, he had only one crappy performance against CLE when they sold out to stop the run and kept 8 in the box.  Counting the CLE game he had a 4.14 YPC over the last 5 weeks. 

However, take out the outlier and low and behold his YPC is 4.56 for 4 of the last 5 games or go one further and it is 4.41 over 5 of the last 6 games.

BTW... his four weakest YPC games were @Vikes, @Titans, @Packers, and @Browns.  

So if you want a trend, it shows that he is weaker on the road... not that his performance faded as the season progressed.

 

[Interseptopus]

Does it? 

Over his last five games, he had only one crappy performance against CLE when they sold out to stop the run and kept 8 in the box.  Counting the CLE game he had a 4.14 YPC over the last 5 weeks. 

However, take out the outlier and low and behold his YPC is 4.56 for 4 of the last 5 games or go one further and it is 4.41 over 5 of the last 6 games.

BTW... his four weakest YPC games were @Vikes, @Titans, @Packers, and @Browns.  

So if you want a trend, it shows that he is weaker on the road... not that his performance faded as the season progressed.

if we are taking out outliers to fit a narrative, yes this makes sense. if you want to take his lowest out as an outlier, take his best game out too. 

however, it sounds like you're saying Collins is not startable on the road. so 8 games out of the year he should be benched? ouch. "50% of the time it works everytime" is not what I want in my rb2

 

[Chaka]

Does it? 

Over his last five games, he had only one crappy performance against CLE when they sold out to stop the run and kept 8 in the box.  Counting the CLE game he had a 4.14 YPC over the last 4 weeks. 

However, take out the outlier and low and behold his YPC is 4.56 for 4 of the last 5 games.  

Why exactly are we throwing out his low outlier over that stretch (1.58 YPC) and not the high outlier (6.67 YPC)?

If we're tossing outliers we must do both, that's how statistics works.

 

[Cobbler1]

While we’re rehashing and throwing things out I’ll mention again that he was hurt up during the Cleveland game and banged up the next one against the Colts on a short week. Better throw out those 30 carries for 70 yards as well!

 

[az_prof]

Why exactly are we throwing out his low outlier over that stretch (1.58 YPC) and not the high outlier (6.67 YPC)?

If we're tossing outliers we must do both, that's how statistics works.

It isn't like he had very few carries. He had plenty for the whole season to be statistically meaningful. The best approach is to look at the whole season.

 

[Chaka]

It isn't like he had very few carries. He had plenty for the whole season to be statistically meaningful. The best approach is to look at the whole season.

He did have plenty for the whole season. But he didn't have plenty when he was putting up 8+ yards a pop and when he started getting feature back carries/game he didn't just regress to the mean, he regressed below the mean.

That isn't an entirely complete, or fair, statement either. I did some numbers crunching maybe 1-2 months ago and IIRC he actually performed above average in games he had 15+ carries but I don't know where that post is, don't want to bother finding it and, IIRC, it was still below his seasonal 4.6 YPC.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Rehashing it is for people who haven't been part of the discussion previously.

4.6 YPC simply does not tell the story of Collins's season. 

For those who have not seen.

Games 1-4: 25 carries 8.94 YPC

Games 5-8: 55 carries 4.96 YPC

Games 9-12: 64 carries 3.55 YPC

Games 13-16: 68 carries 3.94 YPC

That tells a much different story than 4.6 YPC on the season.

Now move your arbitrary cut offs around just a little and see what happens. On such limited sample sizes that tells you absolutely nothing. Didn’t he also start to see GL carries later in the season? 

This is coming from someone that moved Collins in both leagues he owned him this offseason - the point you think you’re making isn’t as strong as you think it is.

 

[cloppbeast]

Now move your arbitrary cut offs around just a little and see what happens. On such limited sample sizes that tells you absolutely nothing. Didn’t he also start to see GL carries later in the season? 

This is coming from someone that moved Collins in both leagues he owned him this offseason - the point you think you’re making isn’t as strong as you think it is.

Well said. I don't have much more to add. There's nothing statistical about any of this cherry picking. The analysis is off whether you like or dislike the player.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He did have plenty for the whole season. But he didn't have plenty when he was putting up 8+ yards a pop and when he started getting feature back carries/game he didn't just regress to the mean, he regressed below the mean.

No one would be bringing up his 8+ yards per pop on those 25 carries as a positive if that's all he did, because one big run will skew that sample size tremendously - just like one really bad game in a four game sample size will make that four game stretch look worse than he actually performed in the three other games.

Creating artificial small sample sizes to show a trend, does not show a trend. And if the big "gotcha" moment is that his ypc went down as the workload increased that should be intuitive to almost everyone of this board. Game situations (short yardage carries, clock killing carries) come into play more over the course of a full season.

I wouldn't even say ypc over one full season is all that statistically meaningful but breaking it down into 4 game increments is pretty silly (and it's not like 3.94 ypc in those last four games is so terrible - a handful goal-line carries would seriously bring down a 68 carry sample).

 

[cloppbeast]

You're trying to count the heavy carry games against Collins because he didn't do as well. You should recognize that any running back will have a lower ypc in such games. At the same time, you try to ignore some of Dixon's bad games for whatever excuse you can come up with, knee brace or whatever. But how many games does Dixon have of more than 11 carries? None.

So you want to be fair: compare Collins' ypc in games with fewer than 11 carries to Dixons' career ypc. Tell me what you find. The fact Collins has a better ypc including high carry games should give it away.

 

[cloppbeast]

Why exactly are we throwing out his low outlier over that stretch (1.58 YPC) and not the high outlier (6.67 YPC)?

If we're tossing outliers we must do both, that's how statistics works.

These aren't even outliers, they are a big random group of carries selected by the statistician. An outlier is a 99 yard run. 

 

[hardcoredx]

Collins was a mediocre college back, I’d say he’s a backup by mid season. He has some horrible hands with meh vision. 

 

[Cobbler1]

Collins was a mediocre college back, I’d say he’s a backup by mid season. He has some horrible hands with meh vision. 

Yeah none of that’s true but you almost spelled every word of your nonsense correctly so you’ve got that going for you at least. 

 

[Chaka]

Now move your arbitrary cut offs around just a little and see what happens. On such limited sample sizes that tells you absolutely nothing. Didn’t he also start to see GL carries later in the season? 

This is coming from someone that moved Collins in both leagues he owned him this offseason - the point you think you’re making isn’t as strong as you think it is.

I don't think I made any comments about the strength of my post. I already pointed out yesterday, and weeks ago, that the first half/second half splits also don't tell a complete story. My only point is that 4.6 YPC is simply not a good metric by which to judge him. 

 

[hardcoredx]

Yeah none of that’s true but you almost spelled every word of your nonsense correctly so you’ve got that going for you at least. 

It’s true, he is a can and your a newb. Watch and learn as I bring this up by midseason. Only an idiot thinks a guy who fumbles the hell out of the ball in college thinks this guy is going to last . He couldn’t even make the Seahawks roster with all the garbage backs they had.

 

[Chaka]

It’s true, he is a can and your a newb. Watch and learn as I bring this up by midseason. Only an idiot thinks a guy who fumbles the hell out of the ball in college thinks this guy is going to last . He couldn’t even make the Seahawks roster with all the garbage backs they had.

There is no need for name calling. It doesn't matter if he started it, take the high ground and we'll all be better off. That goes for you too @Cobbler1

TIA

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't think I made any comments about the strength of my post. I already pointed out yesterday, and weeks ago, that the first half/second half splits also don't tell a complete story. My only point is that 4.6 YPC is simply not a good metric by which to judge him. 

YPC is probably a little over-rated to begin with - but if you're going to look at it I think the full season of carries makes more sense that breaking it down into quarter season segments.  

 

[Chaka]

YPC is probably a little over-rated to begin with - but if you're going to look at it I think the full season of carries makes more sense that breaking it down into quarter season segments.  

In most cases I agree but I don't feel as strongly about that in cases like Collins's. Bottom line is his usage was dramatically different by the end of the season than it was during the first few weeks. I think his time receiving feature back carries that defenses game planned against holds more weight than his time as a very limited CoP when defenses had no idea who he was.

I will find the post where I broke him down relative to his in game usage regardless of week (I believe I used 15 touches as my arbitrary cutoff). IIRC it showed very favorably for Collins.

Personally I would use 4.3 YPC as his baseline for projections.

 

[ratbast]

How did the Offense progress last year? When looking at YPC one must take into account OL, passing game and all things that factored. I don’t know the answers here except game plans involved him more as the season progressed. Whole picture must be considered. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

In most cases I agree but I don't feel as strongly about that in cases like Collins's. Bottom line is his usage was dramatically different by the end of the season than it was during the first few weeks and I think his time as a feature back carries that defenses game planned against more weight than his time as a very limited CoP when defenses had no idea who he was.

I will find the post where I broke him down relative to his in game usage regardless of week (I believe I used 15 touches as my arbitrary cutoff). IIRC it showed very favorably for Collins.

Personally I would use 4.3 YPC as his baseline for projections.

This is why I think people get too hung up on ypc.

250 carries at 4.3 ypc = 1,075

250 carries at 4.6 ypc = 1,150

 

[Chaka]

This is why I think people get too hung up on ypc.

250 carries at 4.3 ypc = 1,075

250 carries at 4.6 ypc = 1,150

Yes but that is assuming the guy with the 4.3 gets used as consistently as the guy generating 4.6.

I think the guy generating the 4.6 is more likely to end up with more volume from the coaching staff.

Coaching staff is another reason to be bearish on Collins regardless.of his YPC. I don't have confidence that Marty will stick to the run game or a.single back regardless of what is happening on the field. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's too clever by half.

 

[Cobbler1]

It’s true, he is a can and your a newb. Watch and learn as I bring this up by midseason. Only an idiot thinks a guy who fumbles the hell out of the ball in college thinks this guy is going to last . He couldn’t even make the Seahawks roster with all the garbage backs they had.

I think everyone here knows that he comes with the risk of fumbling away the job yet he managed to overcome that to take the job and keep it last year. It really doesn’t have anything to do with the post I responded to about his mediocre college production as well as meh vision and horrible hands. As for the rest of your post- good job, nice contribution!

 

[Biabreakable]

Yards per carry is a useful statistic. Its much better than total yards for example.

It is also a stat that is pretty much useless when dissecting it into smaller sample sizes. As volume goes up ypc tends to go down and settle somewhere around the league average of 4.2 Players who can maintain a career ypc that is above the average are exceptional.

Really ypc should only be used in multi season totals, 3 seasons would be ideal. One season is not really enough, but you work with what you have.

In regards to Collins he will be getting starting offensive linemen back, so his blocking should improve even if his ypc doesn't.

4.3 seems reasonable to me. I could see using 4.4 or 4.5 if you are bullish on the return of Marshall Yanda. 

Collins does have a career ypc of 4.5 on 243 rushing attempts, which is similar to a full season for a starter.

 

[Brisco54]

if we are taking out outliers to fit a narrative, yes this makes sense. if you want to take his lowest out as an outlier, take his best game out too. 

however, it sounds like you're saying Collins is not startable on the road. so 8 games out of the year he should be benched? ouch. "50% of the time it works everytime" is not what I want in my rb2

 I am not trying to sell a narrative, but instead show the flaws in narrative Chaka was implying. 

The theory appears to be that he is JAG who's weaknesses were exposed as the season progressed.  If you go back and read my post, the first line I said was that over the last five games he averaged 4.14 YPC, which to me is sufficient to defeat that narrative.  I then used the same arbitrary selection of a small sample size to show the flaws in the proposed method.

Let me correct one error I just made... I was trying to sell one narrative... that his Achilles heel was games on the road.  I think this bothers you much mroe than me... in fact, this observation makes me more attracted to the player for two reasons.  First, that it is a flaw that is probably not related to his ability but rather to line performance... a flaw that should quickly be eliminated by the return of health starters.  (Note that the home/road difference in performance is most pronounced for inexperienced linemen dealing with crowd noise).  Secondly, predictable performance is an very important, underrated fantasy quality.  If I add had to choose between the following two players:

A.  150 total fantasy points, 100 of which will come from a predictable 6 weeks during the season

B.  200 total fantasy points, 150 of which will come from an unpredicatable 6 weeks during the season

I would choose player A.  Being able to know when to start or sit a player is huge to me.

Collins is 4th to 5th round ADP.... for my drafting strategy this year, that means he is my RB3, not my RB2 (WR are insanely deep this year, so I am going with a strategy of 3 RB and 1 WR in the first four rounds.  If I pick early in the first, it will be RB WR RB RB if I pick late in the first it will be WR RB RB RB.) 

Like the NFL, which is basically split between bell cow backs and RBBC, so to is my fantasy lineup.  My first RB I draft is a bell cow stud whenever possible.  After the first 10-12 RB they all have serious warts, so I focus on the best RBBC.  My RB3 is not a bench player but instead a rotational member of the committee, making predictability critical.

So on Collins, if I am right and the healthy line fixes the road game problem I have an RB1 contender... if I am wrong, I still get a strong RBBC contributor.

To me the threat to Collins is Dixon, not Collins' perceived lack of ability or "fade" down the stretch.  If you believe Dixon to be an RB1 stud level player, you move Collins down your draft board, if you don't believe in Dixon, than Collins is worth his current ADP.

I am not currently a believer in Dixon.  HOWEVER, with his current ranking of RB62 in redraft, I have no problem covering my bets and adding Dixon around round 11 or 12.  

I would much rather own Collins & Dixon than say Drake and Gore.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

62 pages in...We're close to getting to the bottom of this. Right?

 

[cloppbeast]

Coaching staff is another reason to be bearish on Collins regardless.of his YPC. I don't have confidence that Marty will stick to the run game or a.single back regardless of what is happening on the field. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's too clever by half.

A guy earlier in the thread pointed out in the last 6 years Morty hasn't run a back more than the 212 times - Collins last season. No matter how much you might like him, you can hardly count on more than 230 carries. 

Collins role in the passing game? That's a whole other debate.

 

[Brisco54]

It’s true, he is a can and your a newb. Watch and learn as I bring this up by midseason. Only an idiot thinks a guy who fumbles the hell out of the ball in college thinks this guy is going to last . He couldn’t even make the Seahawks roster with all the garbage backs they had.

This is a narrative I just can't agree with. 

As I pointed out in another post, the Seattle running game depends on runners hitting a certain spot and trusting that the hole will open up by the time they get there.  Lynch was an awesome quintessential pounder perfect for that role.  Collins strength is his vision and quick side step.  He does not fit the Seattle model at all... nor was he a generational talent enough for them to change their system to adapt to his skills.  

I picked up Collins last year the second B-More signed him.  He is a strong runner for their system especially once Yanda returns.  

The fumbling is a concern, but he did not lose a fumble from week 5 on last year, when he became the primary RB.   Prior to being RB1 maybe he did not have the attention of the coaching staff.  He would not be the first back that was able to solve fumbling issues once he received proper coaching.

 

[Steeler]

He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's too clever by half.

WE'LL TAKE THE WIND!

 

[Steeler]

62 pages in...We're close to getting to the bottom of this. Right?

We are still about 48 days away

 

[Brisco54]

62 pages in...We're close to getting to the bottom of this. Right?

Andy, you may have hit on something here... I wonder if the more controversy there is over a player's fantasy value is in any way indicative of success or failure?

Anecdotally, and probably inaccurately, looking at just my own posts, the two player arguments I was most active in last year were the value of Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen.  

Are extensive shark tank arguments where you have large, active groups on both sides, indicative of player success?

 

[Buckna]

The fumbling is a concern, but he did not lose a fumble from week 5 on last year, when he became the primary RB.   Prior to being RB1 maybe he did not have the attention of the coaching staff.  He would not be the first back that was able to solve fumbling issues once he received proper coaching.

Think your underselling this quite a bit, he fumbled twice at the end of the season, both in close games. He just got lucky that a teammate recovered it both times. 4 total fumbles on the season isn't a huge number, but does put him tied for 3rd most for a RB last year with Freeman, Duke Johnson, and Ajayi.

 

[Interseptopus]

 I am not trying to sell a narrative, but instead show the flaws in narrative Chaka was implying. 

The theory appears to be that he is JAG who's weaknesses were exposed as the season progressed.  If you go back and read my post, the first line I said was that over the last five games he averaged 4.14 YPC, which to me is sufficient to defeat that narrative.  I then used the same arbitrary selection of a small sample size to show the flaws in the proposed method.

Let me correct one error I just made... I was trying to sell one narrative... that his Achilles heel was games on the road.  I think this bothers you much mroe than me... in fact, this observation makes me more attracted to the player for two reasons.  First, that it is a flaw that is probably not related to his ability but rather to line performance... a flaw that should quickly be eliminated by the return of health starters.  (Note that the home/road difference in performance is most pronounced for inexperienced linemen dealing with crowd noise).  Secondly, predictable performance is an very important, underrated fantasy quality.  If I add had to choose between the following two players:

A.  150 total fantasy points, 100 of which will come from a predictable 6 weeks during the season

B.  200 total fantasy points, 150 of which will come from an unpredicatable 6 weeks during the season

I would choose player A.  Being able to know when to start or sit a player is huge to me.

Collins is 4th to 5th round ADP.... for my drafting strategy this year, that means he is my RB3, not my RB2 (WR are insanely deep this year, so I am going with a strategy of 3 RB and 1 WR in the first four rounds.  If I pick early in the first, it will be RB WR RB RB if I pick late in the first it will be WR RB RB RB.) 

Like the NFL, which is basically split between bell cow backs and RBBC, so to is my fantasy lineup.  My first RB I draft is a bell cow stud whenever possible.  After the first 10-12 RB they all have serious warts, so I focus on the best RBBC.  My RB3 is not a bench player but instead a rotational member of the committee, making predictability critical.

So on Collins, if I am right and the healthy line fixes the road game problem I have an RB1 contender... if I am wrong, I still get a strong RBBC contributor.

To me the threat to Collins is Dixon, not Collins' perceived lack of ability or "fade" down the stretch.  If you believe Dixon to be an RB1 stud level player, you move Collins down your draft board, if you don't believe in Dixon, than Collins is worth his current ADP.

I am not currently a believer in Dixon.  HOWEVER, with his current ranking of RB62 in redraft, I have no problem covering my bets and adding Dixon around round 11 or 12.  

I would much rather own Collins & Dixon than say Drake and Gore.

taking out an outlier in statistics means taking one at both ends. not cherry picking which one you take out

 

[JoeJoe88]

Think your underselling this quite a bit, he fumbled twice at the end of the season, both in close games. He just got lucky that a teammate recovered it both times. 4 total fumbles on the season isn't a huge number, but does put him tied for 3rd most for a RB last year with Freeman, Duke Johnson, and Ajayi.

Oh, we're counting recovered fumbles now as well?  I bet if you took the time to count up the top 15 RB's from last year and their recovered fumbles, it would be very eye-opening and you could spin that narrative that "they were lucky that a teammate recovered it" for just about any one of them.