RB Alex Collins, SEA (2 Viewers)

[tricky92]

If you’ve been watching Collins play this season... at all... last night shouldn’t surprise you. 

This is who he is. 

 

[bombjack]

Was that fumble at the goal line Allen's fault? Anything to read into that since we know Harbaugh hates fumbles?

 

[Chaka]

I don’t mind the sell high posts.   It might be a smart thing to do.  I would sell high IF I was getting a King’s ransom in return.  At this point in the season, starting rbs are a very hot commodity.  Collins is a young back coming into his own and gets featured more and more every week.  And every time they feature him more he produces like an elite back.   

So if I trade him, it will be for a top 10 wr.  Or a top 2 te.  That’s about it.  Other than that I will gladly keep him and start him over ajayi moving forward until I’m proven wrong for doing so.  

I'd sell for Tyreek Hill in a heartbeat, like giving myself an MI type heartbeat.  I'd happily take Dez too assuming you don't have to start a new RB in place of Collins. 

Despite what @Weebs210 would have you believe I am as high on Collins as the next guy. However, in a vacuum, these are absolutely delusional asking prices.

He was brilliant last night but his next TD will be his first TD.

Again, despite what @Weebs210 says, his schedule won't get easier than this matchup. @Tennesee isn't easier than Miami, particularly if Flacco doesn't play. @Green Bay is obviously much better now but it's still a tougher scenario than home vs Miami. Then it's Houston, Detroit, @Pittsburgh (all much better than Miami( before finally getting @Cleveland, which seems like a better matchup than last night unless you look at how surprisingly well Cleveland has played vs the run (3.0 ypc). Then they finally get what truly looks like their only game you can confidently say is against an opponent worse than Miami when they play Indianapolis at home week 16.

Love the kid, have been an owner most of the season but a top 10 WR is an insane asking price (always with the "in a vacuum" caveat as league variables and injury situations are different for everyone).

 

[saintfool]

As a Buck Allen owner, it is obvious that Collins is the most talented Ravens RB.  The biggest problem with any of the Raven RBs is that the Ravens O stinks.  That was why Allen had value.  He was the passing down RB.  Collins will have value when Baltimore is playing with a lead and Allen will have value when the Ravens are passing.  I guess you could use Collins or Allen depending on their competition that week.  West and Woodhead should not be in the discussion.  West is not good and Woodhead will not stay on the field for long when he does return. 

as a West owner, I would agree. there's no reason he should be considered the presumptive starter on that tram based on what I've seen. Collins has surpassed him this season easily.the only reason to keep West, imo as an owner, is the possibility that Collins is injured.

 

[The Frankman]

Was that fumble at the goal line Allen's fault? Anything to read into that since we know Harbaugh hates fumbles?

It was more Mallet's fault, but we can hope he blames Allen.

Despite what @Weebs210 would have you believe I am as high on Collins as the next guy. However, in a vacuum, these are absolutely delusional asking prices.

He was brilliant last night but his next TD will be his first TD.

Again, despite what @Weebs210 says, his schedule won't get easier than this matchup. @Tennesee isn't easier than Miami, particularly if Flacco doesn't play. @Green Bay is obviously much better now but it's still a tougher scenario than home vs Miami. Then it's Houston, Detroit, @Pittsburgh (all much better than Miami( before finally getting @Cleveland, which seems like a better matchup than last night unless you look at how surprisingly well Cleveland has played vs the run (3.0 ypc). Then they finally get what truly looks like their only game you can confidently say is against an opponent worse than Miami when they play Indianapolis at home week 16.

Love the kid, have been an owner most of the season but a top 10 WR is an insane asking price (always with the "in a vacuum" caveat as league variables and injury situations are different for everyone).

This... now if someone offers you an upside RB2 like Kamara or maybe a Tevin Coleman owner is worried and offers him, sure go for it. But no way Collins gets you a RB1/WR1 straight up. 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

What didn't happen?

The guy gained 140 yards from scrimmage, added a few receptions and GL carries that hadn't been there prior, sustained a crazy YPC, and continued to outplay Allen.

Curious what more he should have done  to "establish himself".

The Ravens were up by 20 at halftime with their QB on the bench and their defense dominating the Dolphins. Collins had about 70 yards at halftime. In most situations I would expect a team in that situation to lean heavily on their bell cow RB in the second half, and that player to at least double their halftime yardage and score TD. That didn't happen. 

The game itself was unwatchable but I did stick with it for the first couple of series. The Ravens were alternating between Allen and Collins, which is another concerning issue. I get the feeling the staff does not have complete trust in Collins. While Collins had 2 receptions last night, the Ravens have not to date used Collins as a receiving back. Maybe his pass protection is suspect. I don't know...

I agree that his ypc has consistently been strong, which has kept me optimistic. But he doesn't score TDs, and really doesn't catch the ball.limiting his upside. With he return of West and Woodhead looming, I do not see Collins as an ascending asset.

The shark move is to package him and trade him for an upgrade at RB or elsewhere.

 

[Weebs210]

@Chaka last time I checked Miami was a top 5 run defense going into last night (not anymore thanks to Collins). All of those match ups you listed besides Houston should be low scoring games with many opportunities for Collins. Tennessee with a slow Mariota... Baltimore always plays Pittsburgh tough. Cleveland will be a run and defensive game. Detroit can be very stagnant on offense on any given day (until the 4th quarter). Not seeing many bad match ups besides Houston.

 

[Weebs210]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Castiglione_PFF/status/923905699989553152

Collins is tied with hunt on 15+ yard carries with 44 less touches.

 

[Alluro]

What role do you see Danny Woodhead playing when he returns? He was being used as the "feature back" before he went down. 

 

[The Frankman]

The Ravens were up by 20 at halftime with their QB on the bench and their defense dominating the Dolphins. Collins had about 70 yards at halftime. In most situations I would expect a team in that situation to lean heavily on their bell cow RB in the second half, and that player to at least double their halftime yardage and score TD. That didn't happen. 

The game itself was unwatchable but I did stick with it for the first couple of series. The Ravens were alternating between Allen and Collins, which is another concerning issue. I get the feeling the staff does not have complete trust in Collins. While Collins had 2 receptions last night, the Ravens have not to date used Collins as a receiving back. Maybe his pass protection is suspect. I don't know...

I agree that his ypc has consistently been strong, which has kept me optimistic. But he doesn't score TDs, and really doesn't catch the ball.limiting his upside. With he return of West and Woodhead looming, I do not see Collins as an ascending asset.

The shark move is to package him and trade him for an upgrade at RB or elsewhere.

West isn't even a consideration to return to being a starter...if anything him and Allen are fighting for the backup role. Woodhead would be the passing-down back and take Allen's current role. I can tell you Collins has been ok in pass protection so far, and that game he ran more passing routes than he's ever done so far.

 

[Weebs210]

What role do you see Danny Woodhead playing when he returns? He was being used as the "feature back" before he went down. 

3rd and long for a week than back on IR.

 

[fred_1_15301]

18/113 and 2/30 is Worth just over 18.5 points in my leagues scoring system.

TD dependency/low catch opportunity be damned, will take that production all day, every day.

The problem is he hasn't given that type of production all day, every day.  In fact, this is the first time all season that he's had a productive fantasy performance.  We'll see if last night was the beginning of a new trend but I have my doubts.  

 

[TripleThreat]

What role do you see Danny Woodhead playing when he returns? He was being used as the "feature back" before he went down. 

I expect he supplants Allen, he and Collins were in the backfield together a couple of times last night.   That... "feature back" before he went down is a deceiving since he went down on the first drive.

Baltimore Ravens at 12:38 1-10-BLT 36 (12:38) T.West up the middle to BLT 35 for -1 yards (G.Atkins). 2-11-BLT 35 (11:58) PENALTY on CIN-P.Sims, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 35 - No Play. 2-6-BLT 40 (11:45) T.West right tackle to BLT 47 for 7 yards (V.Rey; N.Vigil). R1 1-10-BLT 47 (11:04) J.Flacco pass short right to T.West to CIN 49 for 4 yards (V.Rey; C.Dunlap). PENALTY on CIN-D.Kirkpatrick, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 47 - No Play. X2 1-10-CIN 48 (10:34) T.West left tackle to CIN 47 for 1 yard (K.Minter; P.Sims). 2-9-CIN 47 (9:48) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short left to D.Woodhead pushed ob at CIN 35 for 12 yards (D.Dennard). P3 1-10-CIN 35 (9:17) J.Allen left tackle to CIN 35 for no gain (G.Iloka). 2-10-CIN 35 (8:40) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short middle to D.Woodhead to CIN 22 for 13 yards (N.Vigil). P4 1-10-CIN 22 (7:59) T.West left end to CIN 14 for 8 yards (K.Minter; C.Fejedelem). PENALTY on BLT-R.Jensen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 22 - No Play. 1-20-CIN 32 (7:34) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short left to B.Perriman to CIN 27 for 5 yards (W.Jackson). 2-15-CIN 27 (6:54) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short left to J.Maclin pushed ob at CIN 19 for 8 yards (N.Vigil). 3-7-CIN 19 (6:16) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short left to D.Woodhead pushed ob at CIN 11 for 8 yards (W.Jackson). P5 1-10-CIN 11 (5:39) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to B.Perriman (D.Dennard). 2-10-CIN 11 (5:35) D.Woodhead left guard to CIN 7 for 4 yards (M.Johnson). 3-6-CIN 7 (4:52) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to B.Perriman. BLT-D.Woodhead was injured during the play. 4-6-CIN 7 (4:47) J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-S.Koch. BLT 3 CIN 0, 13 plays, 57 yards, 2 penalties, 7:54 drive,

 

[TripleThreat]

that formatted like poo.  

 

[The Frankman]

The problem is he hasn't given that type of production all day, every day.  In fact, this is the first time all season that he's had a productive fantasy performance.  We'll see if last night was the beginning of a new trend but I have my doubts.  

WHAT?

Season Performances to date, Standard scoring

2Sep 17CleFinal (W) 24-10 3.2, 7/42

3Sep 24@JaxFinal (L) 44-7 8.2, 9/82

4Oct 1PitFinal (L) 26-9 9.2, 9/82

5Oct 8@OakFinal (W) 30-17 5.5 12/55

6Oct 15ChiFinal (L) 27-24 7.4 15/74

7Oct 22@MinFinal (L) 24-16 3.0 10/30

8Oct 26MiaFinal (W) 40-0 14.3 18/113

Like... if you want to say this is the first game he had legit RB2 worth ok, but 7-8 points for a guy who was a practice squadder is a legit productive performance out of the Flex. Now, people probably didn't start him those early performances (lol I did for one) but that's not what you asked.

 

[fred_1_15301]

WHAT?

Season Performances to date, Standard scoring

2Sep 17CleFinal (W) 24-10 3.2, 7/42

3Sep 24@JaxFinal (L) 44-7 8.2, 9/82

4Oct 1PitFinal (L) 26-9 9.2, 9/82

5Oct 8@OakFinal (W) 30-17 5.5 12/55

6Oct 15ChiFinal (L) 27-24 7.4 15/74

7Oct 22@MinFinal (L) 24-16 3.0 10/30

8Oct 26MiaFinal (W) 40-0 14.3 18/113

Like... if you want to say this is the first game he had legit RB2 worth ok, but 7-8 points for a guy who was a practice squadder is a legit productive performance out of the Flex.

Fair enough.  I guess in a PPR, I don't really consider those numbers much better than bye week replacement.  I should have specified that I was referring to PPR.  

 

[LivingTheDream]

It's crazy to say about Alex Collins, but he looks like a top 5 NFL back right now running the football. 

It's going to translate to big games fantasy-wise. 

 

[The Frankman]

To the newer people I know it looks like we are flapping our gums and overhyping Collins, but if you read p. 31-33 of this thread the nuts and bolts of Collins' game/upside is laid bare to all. We get very blunt about him (this was after last Sunday's game) and his future prospects, and alot of people dropped him as a result. A lot of people (me included) picked him up around Week 3 and have been monitoring his amazing but SLOW AS MOLASSES build... so we are going to go fanboy occasionally and over hype him to the stars.

The truth is he's not as good as the most positive comments, and not as bad as the most negative. That being said, Baltimore is dumb if he's not the starting RB for this team when everyone is healthy. Geting him out in space as a pass catcher would seem to be the next progression also.

EDIT: I was waiting for the game tape... but did anyone notice in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter Baltimore ran alot of 2 RB sets?

 

[BobbyLayne]

Remaining schedule, FFPA to RB ranking:

@TEN 19th

BYE

@GB 7th

HOU 30th 

DET 6th

@PIT 9th

@CLE 27th

IND 2nd

One neutral, one bye, two avoid (although Dolphins were 10th least/23rd most in FFPA to RB before last night), four favorable.

The line is getting healthier (RG came back last night & played well - though honestly, every game I’ve watched he gets a ton on his own, this is no take what’s there kind of back.) It’s getting later in the year & weather could be a factor in three of those games. I like his chances RoS.

 

[tricky92]

I doubt Romo and the other cat have Collins on their Fantasy teams and they couldn’t stop gushing about him last night. 

 

[Weebs210]

I doubt Romo and the other cat have Collins on their Fantasy teams and they couldn’t stop gushing about him last night. 

Same with everyone on nfl network after the game.

 

[Chaka]

@Chaka last time I checked Miami was a top 5 run defense going into last night (not anymore thanks to Collins). All of those match ups you listed besides Houston should be low scoring games with many opportunities for Collins. Tennessee with a slow Mariota... Baltimore always plays Pittsburgh tough. Cleveland will be a run and defensive game. Detroit can be very stagnant on offense on any given day (until the 4th quarter). Not seeing many bad match ups besides Houston.

I agree with your assessment of those games. Unfortunately none of those scenarios is the same as dominating Miami, being up 20-0 at half and winning 40-0. So I fail to see how any of those games represents the positive game script Baltimore had last night.

Are we 100% convinced that in a 3 point game Harbaugh won't super clench his ultra-conservative ####### again and give Allen more PT?

Several great things happened last night: 1) Collins performed at a high level again 2) he was used a little in the passing game 3) he got some short yardage love and 4) most importantly he hasn't fumbled in his last 55, or so, touches. So there is every reason to be super optimistic. But game scenarios like last night don't come around often for the very best teams let alone a very average Baltimore team.

So what happens in a one score game? Or what happens when they are trailing big?

 

[BobbyLayne]

Spent a buck on him 9 days ago, dropped 24 hours later for Ivory.

Alright fellas, how much is this gonna cost me? I got $70 FAAB left. Full PPR. My other RBs are Bell, Martin, Mixon & some lottery tickets.

40-50%?

He’s has two tough run Ds left, the bye week, one neutral and four plus matchups (Weeks 11, 13-14, & 16.)

Spend $20-25 on him MINIMUM. This guy is a Harbaugh revelation away from being a legit RB2 with RB1 upside if he gets consistent goal line work/couple receptions per game.

That’s in line with what I was thinking; before I saw this I put in a claim for $22 (of $72), dropping JuJu. Have all weekend to ponder it. I have more FABB than 4, less than 7, & most of my league mates are Eagles or Ravens homers. I might up my bid to 50% but we’ll see how the weekend plays out. Would love to start him v. the Titans Week 9 as I’ll be covering Allen, Bell, & Cooks in a tough FF matchup.

 

[The Frankman]

I agree with your assessment of those games. Unfortunately none of those scenarios is the same as dominating Miami, being up 20-0 at half and winning 40-0. So I fail to see how any of those games represents the positive game script Baltimore had last night.

Are we 100% convinced that in a 3 point game Harbaugh won't super clench his ultra-conservative ####### again and give Allen more PT?

Several great things happened last night: 1) Collins performed at a high level again 2) he was used a little in the passing game 3) he got some short yardage love and 4) most importantly he hasn't fumbled in his last 55, or so, touches. So there is every reason to be super optimistic. But game scenarios like last night don't come around often for the very best teams let alone a very average Baltimore team.

So what happens in a one score game? Or what happens when they are trailing big?

I think most Collins owners are hoping that in the period where it's him and Allen in the backfield a) he keeps ripping off the occasional big gain b) he gets in on more passing downs and gets a few receptions and c) he shows enough promise with the first 2 so that if/when he eventually DOES fumble, it's not a death sentence. This is pure guesswork, but I'd think Baltimore is starting to do that when they went 2 RB alot in the 3rd/4th quarter last night as a way to use both Allen and Collins.

EDIT: I mean, how many times did Collins leave the game and the drive IMMEDIATELY stalled? That was hilarious watching it.

 

[Weebs210]

I agree with your assessment of those games. Unfortunately none of those scenarios is the same as dominating Miami, being up 20-0 at half and winning 40-0. So I fail to see how any of those games represents the positive game script Baltimore had last night.

Are we 100% convinced that in a 3 point game Harbaugh won't super clench his ultra-conservative ####### again and give Allen more PT?

Several great things happened last night: 1) Collins performed at a high level again 2) he was used a little in the passing game 3) he got some short yardage love and 4) most importantly he hasn't fumbled in his last 55, or so, touches. So there is every reason to be super optimistic. But game scenarios like last night don't come around often for the very best teams let alone a very average Baltimore team.

So what happens in a one score game? Or what happens when they are trailing big?

We don't know for sure but I feel like Harbough may have seen the light. It was 0-0 Collins was out there as the starter and first drive that ended in a TD. Plus Collins has 70 yards before it was a blow out. I just feel after last night it will be hard not to give this kid the majority of the carries.

 

[Bayhawks]

It was more Mallet's fault, but we can hope he blames Allen.

This... now if someone offers you an upside RB2 like Kamara or maybe a Tevin Coleman owner is worried and offers him, sure go for it. But no way Collins gets you a RB1/WR1 straight up. 

I think those WRs can be traced back to me.  I was talking specifically about my league/situation.  The owners who I might be able to swing those trades for are Raven's fans, they are pretty much out of contention, Collins could (if he continues to play well) make a good keeper, & those WRs' prices do not make them good keepers.  I wasn't suggesting that they were the market value for Collins.  Although that is a good (and more appropriate, since my posts were geared to much towards my league) discussion.

What would constitute a "sell high" for Collins after his big game, vs what would be "fair value?"

With the way my main league (where I have Collins) values RBs, I don't see a 1-1 trade for Kamara (he's been hyped & used since the AP trade), and I'm not sure I like the Coleman idea; Atl seems to be in a major offensive funk this year.

 

[gianmarco]

Collins Week 8 touches vs. Miami

 

[Chaka]

I think those WRs can be traced back to me.  I was talking specifically about my league/situation.  The owners who I might be able to swing those trades for are Raven's fans, they are pretty much out of contention, Collins could (if he continues to play well) make a good keeper, & those WRs' prices do not make them good keepers.  I wasn't suggesting that they were the market value for Collins.  Although that is a good (and more appropriate, since my posts were geared to much towards my league) discussion.

What would constitute a "sell high" for Collins after his big game, vs what would be "fair value?"

With the way my main league (where I have Collins) values RBs, I don't see a 1-1 trade for Kamara (he's been hyped & used since the AP trade), and I'm not sure I like the Coleman idea; Atl seems to be in a major offensive funk this year.

I wouldn't take Coleman for Collins either. Kamara I would definitely take in a PPR, probably in a standard league too but it's a little closer.

 

[hamsterdam]

I agree with your assessment of those games. Unfortunately none of those scenarios is the same as dominating Miami, being up 20-0 at half and winning 40-0. So I fail to see how any of those games represents the positive game script Baltimore had last night.

Are we 100% convinced that in a 3 point game Harbaugh won't super clench his ultra-conservative ####### again and give Allen more PT?

Several great things happened last night: 1) Collins performed at a high level again 2) he was used a little in the passing game 3) he got some short yardage love and 4) most importantly he hasn't fumbled in his last 55, or so, touches. So there is every reason to be super optimistic. But game scenarios like last night don't come around often for the very best teams let alone a very average Baltimore team.

So what happens in a one score game? Or what happens when they are trailing big?

To be fair, this is the first time Harbaugh looked to trust Collins in running the clock out. They've been in similar situations before and it was all Allen. The game vs Oakland comes to mind, IIRC.

Not saying this is going to be directly correlated to Collins closing out close games going forward, but it does show that perhaps there has been a shift in Harbaugh's perception of him. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

DNP

7-42

9-82

9-82 (2 targets, 0 catches)

12-55

15-74

10-30

18-113 (2 targets, 2-30)

I have seen 5 of these games & been impressed every time. It’s not his line play, which has been subpar. He is a talented Runking Back.

Projecting 15G season rushing total after each week:

0

630

840

1030

979

1005

913

1024

Hea been stop the NFL leaders in YPC for several weeks. FF production? Not so great with no RZ touches and zero receptions. Did that change last night? We’ll see.

IRL football, dude has done everything asked of him. Couple early fumbles but none in the last 4.

Some really odd / off-kilter comments in this thread today.

 

[Bayhawks]

The Ravens were up by 20 at halftime with their QB on the bench and their defense dominating the Dolphins. Collins had about 70 yards at halftime. In most situations I would expect a team in that situation to lean heavily on their bell cow RB in the second half, and that player to at least double their halftime yardage and score TD. That didn't happen. 

The game itself was unwatchable but I did stick with it for the first couple of series. The Ravens were alternating between Allen and Collins, which is another concerning issue. I get the feeling the staff does not have complete trust in Collins. While Collins had 2 receptions last night, the Ravens have not to date used Collins as a receiving back. Maybe his pass protection is suspect. I don't know...

I agree that his ypc has consistently been strong, which has kept me optimistic. But he doesn't score TDs, and really doesn't catch the ball.limiting his upside. With he return of West and Woodhead looming, I do not see Collins as an ascending asset.

The shark move is to package him and trade him for an upgrade at RB or elsewhere.

He had 60 yards at halftime; finished with 143.  That's more than "at least double their halftime yardage."  He almost had a TD (out at the 2), but in the 2nd half, the Ravens had two pick-6's.  That impacts the offensive player's opportunities to score TDs. 

So, he did part of what you expect (doubled his halftime yardage) and came very close to doing the second part. 

With that being said, that's a very odd "rule" you have there.

I'm assuming you think Gurley isn't that good either?  Last week, the Rams were up 23-0 at halftime.  Gurley had 87 yards; he finished with 154, and no TD in the 2nd half.  That's less than double his halftime yardage & no second half TD.

 

[Chaka]

To be fair, this is the first time Harbaugh looked to trust Collins in running the clock out. They've been in similar situations before and it was all Allen. The game vs Oakland comes to mind, IIRC.

Not saying this is going to be directly correlated to Collins closing out close games going forward, but it does show that perhaps there has been a shift in Harbaugh's perception of him. 

I know I am the Debbie Downer in this thread but it's kind of easy to trust a guy when you're up 40-0. I already called him a Jim Cramer BUY!!! But Jim Cramer is also ###### who ruins people's lives. I just need to see what happens in a close game before I turn that BUY!!!BUY!!!BUY!!! into a START!!!START!!!START!!!

Everything was roses and bunnies last night for Collins. His star is definitely rising. Might be one of the slowest rising stars ever but if he's going like this RoS he will win people championships.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

West isn't even a consideration to return to being a starter...if anything him and Allen are fighting for the backup role. Woodhead would be the passing-down back and take Allen's current role. I can tell you Collins has been ok in pass protection so far, and that game he ran more passing routes than he's ever done so far.

Look, I get it, there is enough in Collins' play to be hopeful he becomes fantasy relevant and I am not going to talk anyone out of that POV. I just think last night was his ceiling. We both seem to agree that Collins doesn't appear to be in line for many receptions. Collins has not scored a TD in a game to date, and if it didn't happen in a situation like last night I am very skeptical it is going to happen very much going forward. That means his production must come from rushing the ball, so his ceiling is capped in the very low teens. I understand the other POV but I just don't see Collins as a fantasy savior.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

He had 60 yards at halftime; finished with 143.  That's more than "at least double their halftime yardage."  He almost had a TD (out at the 2), but in the 2nd half, the Ravens had two pick-6's.  That impacts the offensive player's opportunities to score TDs. 

So, he did part of what you expect (doubled his halftime yardage) and came very close to doing the second part. 

With that being said, that's a very odd "rule" you have there.

I'm assuming you think Gurley isn't that good either?  Last week, the Rams were up 23-0 at halftime.  Gurley had 87 yards; he finished with 154, and no TD in the 2nd half.  That's less than double his halftime yardage & no second half TD.

LOL. Gurley is scoring TDs and catching receptions. His value isn't capped as I believe Collins' value is, as I explained in my previous post. With all the enthusiasm about Collins now is the time to trade him for a RB that catches the ball and scores TDs. 

 

[Weebs210]

I know I am the Debbie Downer in this thread but it's kind of easy to trust a guy when you're up 40-0. I already called him a Jim Cramer BUY!!! But Jim Cramer is also ###### who ruins people's lives. I just need to see what happens in a close game before I turn that BUY!!!BUY!!!BUY!!! into a START!!!START!!!START!!!

Everything was roses and bunnies last night for Collins. His star is definitely rising. Might be one of the slowest rising stars ever but if he's going like this RoS he will win people championships.

Isn't 0-0 a close game? Collins was the starter and main running back in a "close game"

 

[tricky92]

Look, I get it, there is enough in Collins' play to be hopeful he becomes fantasy relevant and I am not going to talk anyone out of that POV. I just think last night was his ceiling. We both seem to agree that Collins doesn't appear to be in line for many receptions. Collins has not scored a TD in a game to date, and if it didn't happen in a situation like last night I am very skeptical it is going to happen very much going forward. That means his production must come from rushing the ball, so his ceiling is capped in the very low teens. I understand the other POV but I just don't see Collins as a fantasy savior.

It wasn’t his ceiling because he could easily stack multiple TDs on top of the yardage. 

Allen is an inferior player and with each passing week this is becoming increasingly obvious... to EVERYONE. 

 

[Charlie Harper]

Remaining schedule, FFPA to RB ranking:

@TEN 19th

BYE

@GB 7th

HOU 30th 

DET 6th

@PIT 9th

@CLE 27th

IND 2nd

One neutral, one bye, two avoid (although Dolphins were 10th least/23rd most in FFPA to RB before last night), four favorable.

The line is getting healthier (RG came back last night & played well - though honestly, every game I’ve watched he gets a ton on his own, this is no take what’s there kind of back.) It’s getting later in the year & weather could be a factor in three of those games. I like his chances RoS.

Yah I was about to avoid him after dropping, but looking at the ROS I'll try to scoop him back up. HOU and PITT are the only games that could get away from BAL. Otherwise, the DEF should keep them competitive enough that it doesn't become a Allen game script.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

He had 60 yards at halftime; finished with 143.  That's more than "at least double their halftime yardage."  He almost had a TD (out at the 2), but in the 2nd half, the Ravens had two pick-6's.  That impacts the offensive player's opportunities to score TDs. 

So, he did part of what you expect (doubled his halftime yardage) and came very close to doing the second part. 

With that being said, that's a very odd "rule" you have there.

I'm assuming you think Gurley isn't that good either?  Last week, the Rams were up 23-0 at halftime.  Gurley had 87 yards; he finished with 154, and no TD in the 2nd half.  That's less than double his halftime yardage & no second half TD.

Sorry, you are doing two things here to try and discredit a POV you don't agree with. First you are bring up a player and an instance that really isn't comparable to Collins situation, so please stop. Second you are misrepresenting how Collins got his yardage total. He had 2 catches for 30 yards. I believe that was an outlier to his game. In sum, Collins got 133 yds, 30 of which came from receiving, which I do not believe will be the norm. Like I stated previously, I believe last night was his ceiling. If you believe that his will a fantasy savior, I wish you good luck. Label me skeptical.

 

[Bayhawks]

LOL. Gurley is scoring TDs and catching receptions. His value isn't capped as I believe Collins' value is, as I explained in my previous post. With all the enthusiasm about Collins now is the time to trade him for a RB that catches the ball and scores TDs. 

All I responded to was your theory about a good rb doubling his yardage & scoring a TD in the 2nd half of blowout wins.  It’s a contrived “rule,” that you misrepresented Collins as not having hit the yardage criteria & that other too RBs have recently failed to meet (Gurley).  I’d absolutely trade Collins for an established RB who scores TDS & catches lots of passes.  Normally their FF owners are reluctant to trade them, though.

 

[ActionHero]

For those of you trying to figure out his value for trade purposes, I did receive an offer last night of DeMarco Murray for him straight up in a PPR league. 

 

[Bayhawks]

Sorry, you are doing two things here to try and discredit a POV you don't agree with. First you are bring up a player and an instance that really isn't comparable to Collins situation, so please stop. Second you are misrepresenting how Collins got his yardage total. He had 2 catches for 30 yards. I believe that was an outlier to his game. In sum, Collins got 133 yds, 30 of which came from receiving, which I do not believe will be the norm. Like I stated previously, I believe last night was his ceiling. If you believe that his will a fantasy savior, I wish you good luck. Label me skeptical.

Wait, so now there’s a third criteria for your “rule?”  OK, when do passing stats not count?  It kind of seems like you are trying to manipulate the numbers to fit your “rule.”

Also, you keep making “mistakes” about Collins production that support your “rule:” he had 143 yards, not 133.  I’m sure these mistakes that just happen to support your contrived “rule” are just coincidences, though right?

Collins had a great game last night; he came within 2 yards of scoring a TD (twice), played a key role in getting the lead, played a key role in the 2nd half, preserving the lead, didn’t fumble, caught some passes.  It doesn’t mean he’s a top-5 ROS RB, but to try to pretend like it wasn’t a great game is laughable.

 

[dmac37]

I would like to say the Genie is out of the bottle now but Harbough is a magician and will find a way to put him back in the bottle   

 

[hamsterdam]

https://youtu.be/CP1x2LoqEE4

Here's his presser after the game.

I think the main takeaway is that we all kind of took the fact that Collins joined this team 5 weeks ago for granted.

I know we've all complained about the slowest break out ever, but in the big picture, the timeline is in tune with his time spent on the team. He had to learn a brand new scheme, culture, staff, and team mates. 

On top of that, he seems like a decent kid that is open to being coached. His comments on his fumbles and how he prepares is a solid indication of that. 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Wait, so now there’s a third criteria for your “rule?”  OK, when do passing stats not count?  It kind of seems like you are trying to manipulate the numbers to fit your “rule.”

Also, you keep making “mistakes” about Collins production that support your “rule:” he had 143 yards, not 133.  I’m sure these mistakes that just happen to support your contrived “rule” are just coincidences, though right?

Collins had a great game last night; he came within 2 yards of scoring a TD (twice), played a key role in getting the lead, played a key role in the 2nd half, preserving the lead, didn’t fumble, caught some passes.  It doesn’t mean he’s a top-5 ROS RB, but to try to pretend like it wasn’t a great game is laughable.

For some reason you are stuck on this idea that I have some sort of "rule." You are misinterpreting my posts. I am looking at the game the situation last night as well as the past pattern of Collins usage. My conclusion is that last night is his ceiling given those data points. I am not pretending about anything. It can be equally true that he had a great game last night and that is his ceiling. Like I said previously, I am not trying to talk you out of your POV, only sharing my opinion.

Full disclosure, I own him in most of my leagues (trying to patch the holes from injuries to DJo and Cook) and it would be a big boast to my chances if I am wrong.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Also, you keep making “mistakes” about Collins production that support your “rule:” he had 143 yards, not 133.  I’m sure these mistakes that just happen to support your contrived “rule” are just coincidences, though right?

That was my bad. You are correct, Collins had 143 total yards. Still doesn't change how I see his value and ceiling.

 

[Biabreakable]

If he had had this game a few weeks back, I'd have tried to package him with another player for RBs like Montgomery, CJ Anderson, or McKinnon.  Now, the shine is off those RBs, to some degree.  Might see if I can work something out for Mckinnon, but I'm not convinced that he's going to be a huge upgrade over Collins, and I wouldn't have to give something else up to keep Collins.

I still think McKinnon is worth having. I think Collins has better vision and creativity than McKinnon has though. Its close in my opinion, just think Collins is a better player.

 

[Chaka]

Isn't 0-0 a close game? Collins was the starter and main running back in a "close game"

Come on, buddy.

 

[Biabreakable]

1st time I've watched him with primary focus and the burst is so much so that I expected speed stripes/clouds to appear 

The run that STC describes above, Collins hit the second level in the blink of an eye. Tremendous burst from this guy when he has a clear path.

When he doesn't he is very fluid in setting up blocks and creating on his own.

He shows good power as well.

He really has all of the tools you are looking for in a RB.

 

[Biabreakable]

 I mean, how many times did Collins leave the game and the drive IMMEDIATELY stalled? That was hilarious watching it.

Happened so much that I got bored of commenting about it.

 

[Biabreakable]

LOL. Gurley is scoring TDs and catching receptions. His value isn't capped as I believe Collins' value is, as I explained in my previous post. With all the enthusiasm about Collins now is the time to trade him for a RB that catches the ball and scores TDs. 

Obviously you trade him for Gurley if you can.

I doubt that you can without giving up a lot more than Collins though, so somewhat of a moot point.