Lots of values change dramatically in 12 months. I am talking right now.
It'll be interesting to see how the season plays out, but I seriously doubt anyone is paying 1.06 or more for Collins in 12 months.
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RB Alex Collins, SEA (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
Oh wow, I thought you were optimistically projecting him to be worth a 2019 1.04-1.06 next year. I can't imagine anyone thinks he's worth that much right now. If you could guarantee a Collins owner the 1.06 or better 2019 draft pick, I think the majority would snap accept.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
This was my thought as well. I'm a fan of Collins, but I think Chaka had a very very good post several above mine here. Detractors are too hard thinking he will be benched in favor of Dixon, and supporters are thinking he's a top 10 RB. He's not likely to be either.
It'll be interesting to see how the season plays out, but I seriously doubt anyone is paying 1.06 or more for Collins in 12 months.
However, what really concerns me is the ypc decrease as he got more work.
Right now I think his value depends on who you talk to. Some people are afraid of RBBC or Dixon. the guy who wanted him in my league apparently loved him, so I took the picks. His pick this year was 1.01, which he traded ahead of time to my team (before it was 1.01 and before I was the owner). So maybe his team will be drafting in the top 1/4 of the league again. IMO that's worth it for Collins, even though I think he could do quite well as a mid level RB2, possibly more if he pushes Allen to the bench
I wasn't too thrilled to trade him away, but I was thrilled in what I got
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Remember that we are talking about a pick a year from now. With the exception of the top 2-3 picks overall, the general rule is that you push a pick down at least half a round for each year it is put off. e.g. If you wanted to acquire pick 2.6 during the 2018 draft, you would probably need to pay 2019 1.12.FF Ninja said:
Thus, pick 1.6 in 2019 is 2018 pick 1.12. Are you saying that if you had the 12th pick in a large league/roster dynasty draft this year and, for whatever reason, Alex Collins was available, that you would have passed for the 12th best rookie? Said another way, would you currently trade Alex Collins straight up for Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk, Kerryon Johnson or Michael Gallup? (rookies currently consensus ranked 10, 11, 12, and 13 on this site?) I do not think I would trade Collins for one of them if he was one of my top 4 RBs and I planned to compete this year rather than rebuild.
I should mention that I think draft picks are generally over-valued. Rookies fail at way too high a rate... about one in three rookies taken in the first round ever have more than a single year as a startable fantasy player (QB top 12, RB/WR top 24, TE top 12) and many will never be fantasy relevant (QB top 24, RB/WR top 48, TE top 24)
Consider 2012. The top 12 ranked rookies were : Trent Richardson, RGIII, Andrew Luck, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Justin Blackmun, Michael Floyd, Isiah Pead, Kendall Wright, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffrey, Brian Quick. Of those twelve, how many have had more than one fantasy relevant season? Andrew Luck, Doug Martin, Alshon Jeffrey and maybe Michael Floyd. That's it. 2012 was bad but I dont need to cherry pick... look a season before and after that:
2013 is remembered as having a great 1st round and it did with Leveon Bell, DHop and Keen Allen leading the charge. But of the remaining nine players, only two have had more than one startable season Gio Bernard and Eddie Lacy. Tavon Austin, Montee Ball, Corderelle Patterson, Zach Stacy, Jonathan Franklin, Markus Wheaton, and Tyler Eifert have all failed to have more than one startable season.
2011 had five of 12 get more than one fantsy relevant season: Ingram Julio AJ Green, Cobb and Cam and seven that flopped: Greg Little, Kendall Hunter, Delone Carter, Denarius Moore, Jonathan Baldwin, Daniel Thomas, Leonard Hankerson. but of the remaining nine, The sad truth is that at least one of the four rookies listed above will never have a startable fantasy season, and one or two more will never have a second one.
That's 36 top ranked rookies over three years and only 14 ever had more than one fantasy relevant season. Collins is ranked as the 18th RB for redraft. Last year the non rookie RBs ranked around there were carlos Hyde (17), Lamar Miller(18), Ameer Abdullah (19), and Doug Martin (20). Not a murderers row by any means, but three of the four finished in the top 35.
As a side note, I think you will find that redraft rankings are generally more accurate and useful than dynasty rankings in predicting future performance. If a rookie is highly ranked in dynasty but poorly ranked (below the other rookies at his position) in redraft (and its not based on injury) the market price of that player is probably way higher than you will ever get in return. You are buying a 1 in 3 chance at ever having a fantasy relevant player.
Conversely, if a veteran is highly ranked in redraft but poorly ranked in dynasty, you are probably getting a bargain if you trade for him in dynasty. In 2016 LeSean McCoy was a consensus second round pick for redraft but dynasty had dropped him down to anywhere from 31st to 57th ranked player overall. Everyone is terrified of keeping an RB one year too long. Interestingly, Collins is similarly RB18 for redraft and RB41 for dynasty on this site. I am not saying he is McCoy by any means, and maybe never more than an RB 2/3, but a much safer bet than any rookie available at the end of the 1st to give you more than one fantasy relevant season in return.
If I needed a third RB this year, i would confidently give 2019 pick 1.5 for Alex Collins. If I needed a second RB starter, i would give 2019 1.4. If he was my 4th RB or lower I would still give 2019 1.6 for him right now.
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I would say that “rookies” are generally overvalued, but the picks themselves are quite valuable. Like buying a new car that drops in value the moment you drive it off the lot, the value of a rookie draft pick diminishes as soon as you actually select a player.
There is a lot of value to be had in stockpiling the picks themselves though, then flipping them for player+future picks to keep the stockpile up while adding proven veteran talent to the roster.
Are we really saying different things? It is because rookies are overvalued that the picks become so valuable.
I am not arguing against acquiring picks. I also like the stockpiling picks strategy, but I know that the resources I am acquiring have a market value much higher than their actual value. I acquire a pick to trade it more than to actually use it.
kneeshooter
Footballguy
Sigmund Bloom Retweeted
Brian Jester @BrianJesterFF 1h1 hour ago
Brian Jester Retweeted Brandon Thorn
From @SharpFootball's book (it's great, buy it): "[Alex] Collins' 50% Success Rate ranked 4th among 32 RBs with 150+ carries, behind only Gurley, Zeke, & Dion Lewis." He also faced the 8th-most difficult run schedule. And had the #1 most injured OL. He's a value this season.
Brian Jester @BrianJesterFF 1h1 hour ago
Brian Jester Retweeted Brandon Thorn
From @SharpFootball's book (it's great, buy it): "[Alex] Collins' 50% Success Rate ranked 4th among 32 RBs with 150+ carries, behind only Gurley, Zeke, & Dion Lewis." He also faced the 8th-most difficult run schedule. And had the #1 most injured OL. He's a value this season.
foxco
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
When you start using thresholds on small sample sizes it means you need to get out the waders and hold your nose. Against what defenses did he get heavy carries, how did the defense play when he was in the game, what game scripts played out?
Except for one game, Collins had much better efficiency than Buck Allen when they shared carries. He was about as good while having the majority of carries as Allen when sharing the load. Having better numbers than Buck Allen is not a ringing endorsement though. What about having way better numbers than Terrence West? Nevermind.
A lot of the people who like Collins liked what they saw out of him. The good old fashioned eye-ball test. To those who don't like Collins, do you even watch the games? (I kid, I kid)
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The half round thing is a good general rule of thumb, but isn't a concrete rule. I would definitely trade the 1.12 this year for a guaranteed 1.06 next year. Easy choice if such a thing were possible to predict. As for if I would trade 1.12 for Collins - probably not. While I agree that rookies bust a lot, it's not like Collins is somehow invincible to busting after last season. His last 8 games averaged out to 3.8 ypc. That's not how you keep a job. If I had the 1.12 this season, I'd probably try to sell it for a better player than Collins.
The trip down memory lane is cute, but injuries derailed a lot of those players' careers and all players (not just rookies) are susceptible to injuries. If you take out the players that were impacted by injuries, it looks like you are shooting about 50% if you draft a 1st round rookie. I imagine the odds go up as you get closer to 1.01, which is why I'd trade a 1.12 this year for 1.06 next year. But I'd say Collins only has at most a 50% chance of putting up more than one fantasy startable season in the future, so I don't think he's a clear cut win if you trade the 1.12 for him.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Wow. I felt happy I was able to trade 1, 2, 3 in 2019 for Collins. I think even if he hits his ceiling he's worth that trade
Yeah, you were very fortunate to get that kind of price for him. I've seen nothing like it in my leagues or even in the dynasty trades thread.
az_prof
Footballguy
Last year Collins was RB19 in my 1pt/ppr league. That made him an average RB2 and a very helpful fantasy player.
Given that he has proven he can have a 1,000 yard season and be successful in the NFL, I don't see why he would only have a 50% chace of having just one "fantasy startable season in his career." He has already had one fantasy startable season, which is one more than any rookie. He is only 23. And he has no competition on his team this year that has put up one fantasy startable season.
If you traded him for the 1.09 you would likely be trading him for Royce Freeman, a third round pick. The odds of third round running backs becoming starters? 16%. Given that he has achieved this bar, the odds of Collins doing it another year are far higher.
If you traded him for the 1.05, you would likely be trading him for Nick Chubb. Chubb is a second round pick. The odds of finding a starting running back in the second round is 25%. He has to contend with a couple of servicable veterans and in Duke's case, one who is above average as a receiver.
It would probably take Rashaad Penny and the 1.03 to give you a better chance of landing a starting running back. FYI, success for running backs taken first is 58%.
People love rookies until they see them struggle a few weeks and players who were not premium NFL draft picks tend to lack luster until they have more than one year of success, so I get that no one would pay 1.03 for Collins. But people who think he is not worth a first round rookie pick are really deluded about the value of rookies.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round
Given that he has proven he can have a 1,000 yard season and be successful in the NFL, I don't see why he would only have a 50% chace of having just one "fantasy startable season in his career." He has already had one fantasy startable season, which is one more than any rookie. He is only 23. And he has no competition on his team this year that has put up one fantasy startable season.
If you traded him for the 1.09 you would likely be trading him for Royce Freeman, a third round pick. The odds of third round running backs becoming starters? 16%. Given that he has achieved this bar, the odds of Collins doing it another year are far higher.
If you traded him for the 1.05, you would likely be trading him for Nick Chubb. Chubb is a second round pick. The odds of finding a starting running back in the second round is 25%. He has to contend with a couple of servicable veterans and in Duke's case, one who is above average as a receiver.
It would probably take Rashaad Penny and the 1.03 to give you a better chance of landing a starting running back. FYI, success for running backs taken first is 58%.
People love rookies until they see them struggle a few weeks and players who were not premium NFL draft picks tend to lack luster until they have more than one year of success, so I get that no one would pay 1.03 for Collins. But people who think he is not worth a first round rookie pick are really deluded about the value of rookies.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round
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jtd13
Footballguy
Most backs drafted in the 3rd round have higher hurdles to clear than Booker and Henderson, so I'd put Freeman's chances of becoming a starter firmly above the average for 3rd round RBs.
The quoted is also why I think Freeman is a safer dynasty bet than Collins. I'd bet on Freeman having a starting gig a year from now before I'd bet on Collins because his margin for error is a lot higher based on what Denver paid to get him. Similarly, his dynasty value is safer because rookies usually have to royally fail to lose much of their rookie dynasty value in the 1st year. If both Collins and Freeman rush for 700 yards with a couple blow up games and several duds, one is going to be looked at as a young talent on the rise, whole the other will be seen as another flash in the pan late round RB.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
What are the statistics for a 5th round RB becoming a starter? 9%...az_prof said:
16% > 9%
Granted, Alex Collins is not a rookie, however he is not the undisputed starter due to several concerns brought up in this thread: Dixon and even losing receptions to Buck Allen. I would say 2017 has an inconclusive grade, because we have no idea how Collins will be used and if he will be the starter. I do like Collins, and I think he has a lot of potential, but let's be real here... at the end of the day he's a 5th round RB who was cut by Seattle who had a significant need at RB. Latched on with a terrible team with a bad OL and nothing really to speak of as far as offensive talent. Is Collins the benefactor of bare cupboards, or is he legit an NFL starter? I have only seen him play in 1 game and I was impressed at how quick he looked. I think he has the right tools and the talent to be the guy, but that's never stopped coaches from muddying the waters for the sake of muddying the waters.
Also, you're discounting opportunity just using statistics. In most cases, yes, a player who is drafted round 4 or later is usually behind a starter already in place. However, there are opportunities for RBs such as Freeman. Take GB last year for example.
I would argue Freeman has a greater chance at becoming the starter than Chubb this year, based on who is around each player. Also, considering Denver traded up for him- they obviously wanted him and have plans for him. I would even say Freeman has an easier path to be the starter than Penny, and an easier path to more touches than Michel.
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Because he's likely a replacement level player. Many guys can put up stats for half a season or so. Sometimes even a full season. Then they seem to fade away. Jerome Harrison, Earnest Graham, Steve Slaton, Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, Stevan Ridley, CJ Spiller, Mikel LeShoure, Tre Mason, Trent Richardson... Hell, you know how many startable seasons Eddie Lacy had after his first one? One. How many startable seasons did Doug Martin have after his first one? One. And we're talking about Collins having more than one more startable season left in the tank. If he survives the competition this year on his tiny one year contract, who is to say he gets a starter's paycheck the next season? You know who he reminds me of... Shonn Greene. Runs with power, not strong in the passing game, but was a legitimate NFL running back. However, he was a replacement level starter. He had a nice 1000 yard season. Followed it up with another 1000 yard season. What happened when he hit free agency? Nothing. He was signed into a RBBC in Tennessee and never heard from again. Jeremy Hill was a 2nd round draft pick with three startable seasons and what happened when he hit free agency? Signed to a tiny contract in NE and might not even make the roster. So let's not talk about the odds of Freeman succeeding. Let's just focus on the odds of Collins succeeding... because they aren't that high.az_prof said:
But hey, there's hope. Everyone remembers the notorious BJGE. He was a replacement level starter and he had about three fantasy startable seasons, including one on a second team. Latavius Murry squeezed out a third startable season (barely) on his second team thanks to an early injury to his team's starter.
Despite how it sounds, I actually like Collins and would gladly roster him at a price where I find the risk
rice ratio favorable. However, I'm just trying to be realistic here. He had a nice breakout season, but his team rewarded him with a paltry one year contract. He tallied 3.8 ypc in his last 8 games and he's not an asset in the passing game (although he's not a liability either). In Dixon's last 8 games he put up 4.9 ypc and is a legitimate pass catcher with very similar size to Collins. We're all stuck playing PPR these days, so for the current prices, I just can't fathom trading the 1.12 for Collins, much less the higher picks the other gent mentioned. I'm not saying I'm keen on the 1.12 pick this year, just that I think I could acquire a player (via trade) with better odds of sustainable fantasy success than Collins. However, if Freeman or Kerryon were to slip to 1.12, I'd gladly take them rather than trade it.Collins is a guy where I won't be surprised if he has a nice career but I also won't be surprised if this is the last year that he's a hot topic. He's a nice dynasty flyer, but he's not a guy I'd trade a current or future 1st for.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
If your opinion of Collins has him as a just-a-guy, then yeah he's not worth a first round rookie pick. (A list of bad running backs isn't necessary) But apparently we're watching two different players because I thought he looked awesome. I'm baffled you think a guy who has already done well in the NFL has less value than a couple of uninspiring 2nd round picks with some questions.Because he's likely a replacement level player. Many guys can put up stats for half a season or so. Sometimes even a full season. Then they seem to fade away. Jerome Harrison, Earnest Graham, Steve Slaton, Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, Stevan Ridley, CJ Spiller, Mikel LeShoure, Tre Mason, Trent Richardson... Hell, you know how many startable seasons Eddie Lacy had after his first one? One. How many startable seasons did Doug Martin have after his first one? One. And we're talking about Collins having more than one more startable season left in the tank. If he survives the competition this year on his tiny one year contract, who is to say he gets a starter's paycheck the next season? You know who he reminds me of... Shonn Greene. Runs with power, not strong in the passing game, but was a legitimate NFL running back. However, he was a replacement level starter. He had a nice 1000 yard season. Followed it up with another 1000 yard season. What happened when he hit free agency? Nothing. He was signed into a RBBC in Tennessee and never heard from again. Jeremy Hill was a 2nd round draft pick with three startable seasons and what happened when he hit free agency? Signed to a tiny contract in NE and might not even make the roster. So let's not talk about the odds of Freeman succeeding. Let's just focus on the odds of Collins succeeding... because they aren't that high.
But hey, there's hope. Everyone remembers the notorious BJGE. He was a replacement level starter and he had about three fantasy startable seasons, including one on a second team. Latavius Murry squeezed out a third startable season (barely) on his second team thanks to an early injury to his team's starter.
Despite how it sounds, I actually like Collins and would gladly roster him at a price where I find the risk
Collins is a guy where I won't be surprised if he has a nice career but I also won't be surprised if this is the last year that he's a hot topic. He's a nice dynasty flyer, but he's not a guy I'd trade a current or future 1st for.
And you know very well picking and choosing the games to suit your argument doesn't fly. Alex Collins has career ypc 4.5; Kenneth Dixon has 4.3.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Good postBecause he's likely a replacement level player. Many guys can put up stats for half a season or so. Sometimes even a full season. Then they seem to fade away. Jerome Harrison, Earnest Graham, Steve Slaton, Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, Stevan Ridley, CJ Spiller, Mikel LeShoure, Tre Mason, Trent Richardson... Hell, you know how many startable seasons Eddie Lacy had after his first one? One. How many startable seasons did Doug Martin have after his first one? One. And we're talking about Collins having more than one more startable season left in the tank. If he survives the competition this year on his tiny one year contract, who is to say he gets a starter's paycheck the next season? You know who he reminds me of... Shonn Greene. Runs with power, not strong in the passing game, but was a legitimate NFL running back. However, he was a replacement level starter. He had a nice 1000 yard season. Followed it up with another 1000 yard season. What happened when he hit free agency? Nothing. He was signed into a RBBC in Tennessee and never heard from again. Jeremy Hill was a 2nd round draft pick with three startable seasons and what happened when he hit free agency? Signed to a tiny contract in NE and might not even make the roster. So let's not talk about the odds of Freeman succeeding. Let's just focus on the odds of Collins succeeding... because they aren't that high.
But hey, there's hope. Everyone remembers the notorious BJGE. He was a replacement level starter and he had about three fantasy startable seasons, including one on a second team. Latavius Murry squeezed out a third startable season (barely) on his second team thanks to an early injury to his team's starter.
Despite how it sounds, I actually like Collins and would gladly roster him at a price where I find the risk
Collins is a guy where I won't be surprised if he has a nice career but I also won't be surprised if this is the last year that he's a hot topic. He's a nice dynasty flyer, but he's not a guy I'd trade a current or future 1st for.
There are a lot of examples of a RB coming in for half or an entire season and having a pretty good year being a replacement level starter, to not do much after another season or two.
I think Alex Collins is likely the starter in Baltimore. I think he's earned that role, but I agree that there is a chance that he fizzles. I'm less concerned about Dixon and Allen than I am about how Collins finished his season. I think a lot of people are disregarding that finish and his stock remains at an all time high. I'm not sure his stock can go any higher than it is right now
Interseptopus
Footballguy
But the second half of 2017 he had a 3.7 YPC. That is what I'm more concerned about
Dude, Dixon played 4 games with a knee brace which yielded like 1.2 ypc. As soon as the brace came off, he was at 4.9 ypc. I genuinely believe the knee brace games are not indicative of his true on field ability. As for Collins, I had just looked at his splits. Games 1-8, 80 carries @ 6.0 then games 9-16, 132 carries @ 3.8... it seems he faded down the stretch. When you're playing on a one-year ~$600k contract, you don't get to keep the job for the whole season if you're fading and there are other viable options.
And I didn't say Collins is a JAG. I said he's likely a replacement level starter. Being an NFL starter is pretty good, even if just a replacement level starter. To me, a JAG is somebody like Charles Sims or Robert Turbin.
And if you think Kerryon and Freeman are uninspiring rookies then I don't know what to tell you. These guys just happened to come out in a loaded class. Any other year they'd be top 3 RB prospects.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
You can't draw conclusions from small sample sizes anyway. Using thresholds introduces bias. Bias on top of small sample sizes spells dubious. A random variance of rushes averaging 4.5 yards can have sequences of 20 or so which average 2.0 or 3.5 ect. And sometimes these sequences happen back to back.
You say Collins faded down the stretch, fair enough. Base it on something. What exactly worsened his performance? Was he tired? did he slow down? not try as hard? Or did the defenses adjust to the Ravens best offensive player?
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Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
I just enjoy watching him run
This. I watched him run the football quite a bit last year, and he certainly passed the eye test for me. I was offered a 2019 1st for him recently, and declined. I have Dixon as well.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
But does he have a greater chance of becoming the starter than Alex Collins? No. Harbs already called Collins the starter.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
IMO of all of the opinions on Collins, I think this is one of the most reasonable. Collins isn't JAG. He isn't a top RB as a workhorse. He's somewhere in between as a serviceable NFL starter. A lot of players have held that role and done quite well for themselves. If Collins starts to fade this year I don't think Baltimore hesitates to give Dixon a try. They have a significant investment in Dixon, more than Collins, and they haven't had a real test of what he can do. Dixon, on paper, looks like a legitimate NFL RB. However he has had obstacles toward showing that. I think even Baltimore realizes that and they want to see what this guy can do before they let him walk away.
Baltimore doesn't have a major commitment to Collins. They are minimally invested in him as a FA and paying him 600k. He's earned the right to start the season as the starter, but I don't think they hesitate toward giving someone else the ball if Collins struggles. So far he has passed the eye ball test and really couldn't have done anything more last year with the opportunities given to him. Time will tell for sure. I just don't see his stock going higher than it is now. So he's a low risk sell IMO in dynasty. In redraft I'd be all over him... he's amazing value for a late pick.
Correct. I think Freeman has a greater path toward fantasy relevancy, especially long term. Just based off of offensive talent around him.
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If you’re going to take out Dixon’s knee brace games then you may as well take out Collins second game vs Cleveland and his game vs Indy during which he was very banged up and accumulated 30 carries for 70 yards. He looked absolutely fantastic vs Pittsburg prior to getting banged up and before that looked great against Detroit. He finished the year with a phenomal run during the Cincy game. I don’t think you can really achieve too much by slicing and dicing such small samples at least in this situation. And that’s not even going into the Ravens awful surrounding weapons and OL last year.
I’ll echo what some people are saying about Collins crushing the eye test. He looked really really good most of last year. Dixon has good hands and power but I’ve never seen elusiveness, agility, creativity from him as a runner. Collins is far superior to him there and has good hands and power as well.
I’ll echo what some people are saying about Collins crushing the eye test. He looked really really good most of last year. Dixon has good hands and power but I’ve never seen elusiveness, agility, creativity from him as a runner. Collins is far superior to him there and has good hands and power as well.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
His value absolutely doesn't come from playing for the Ravens. Him walking would add to his value.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Even his naysayers, like ninja guy, admit Collins' has at least an average starter ability. This means he's pretty good. But you're telling me you'd rather have a back who has proven nothing in the NFL because his competition is Booker? If Freeman can't play, trust me, he'll have different competition next season. So what's the odds a 3rd pick can't play? The guy above said it's 16%.
Bias... Dubious...
Ok, how do you want to evaluate him? Oh, I've got an idea, let's do it based on the aggregate "eyeball" tests of all his desperate owners who are wishing upon a star for Collins to save their RB depleted teams. 
Do you honestly want me to speculate on why he faded down the stretch? You'll just tell me it's bias and speculation. We don't know why he faded. Sometimes guys have higher ypc when they get 8-9 carries a game than when they get 16-18. Is it conditioning? Defenses adjusting? I honestly can't tell you, nor can anyone else. But the fact remains that when he became "the guy" for the Ravens, he produced JAG-like per touch numbers. As I've already said, I like his talent. So I blame the JAG-like numbers on a generally crappy offense. But I also think Dixon is a very similar talent and he'll push for touches if Collins is out there rushing for 3.8 ypc this coming season, making Collins a hard guy to depend on.
I don't think this will be a very good offense, and when the offense isn't working, coaches tend to mix things up. That's how replacement level starters get replaced by other replacement level starters.
C'mon man.
I'm not a naysayer. I'm just being realistic. Just because I wouldn't trade a 1st for Collins doesn't mean I'm a naysayer. I think most people would not trade a 1st for Collins. Not most people in this thread because everyone in here is just begging for confirmation bias from each other.
Collins Owner A: my eyeball test says stud!
Collins Owner B: OMG, me too!!
Collins Owner C: He's worth a 1st easy!
Unbiased 3rd party: I dunno. I wouldn't pay a 1st.
All owners: get out you biased naysayer!
Interseptopus
Footballguy
My opinion of Collins is so Jekyll/Hyde because I think he is very difficult to figure out. There's a lot going on. Had he finished the season as he started it and finished with a very impressive YPC in those last 8 games, I'd likely be calling him the real deal and wouldn't trade him for a 1st. Especially for 2019 where there isn't any top known RBs right now. I think there is a greater chance he plays the entire season and finishes as a RB2, ranked maybe 17-20th than there is Dixon over takes him and pushes him to the bench.
In regards to my dynasty team, I didn't want to trade him but the potential to land a top WR or RB in next year's draft was too much to pass up over having a perennial mid to low RB2 on my team. It's a risk, but Collins could be worthless in 6 months. He kind of reminds me of Crowell statistically/situationally. When he got carries he looked pretty good on a bad team. I was really excited about him last year saying I'd grab him round 3 or 4 easily and be happy about it. Several people thought I was nuts. I was way off. He was terrible.
To answer your original question, in redraft- no I do not like Freeman ahead of Collins. I like Collins as around a RB17-20. I don't think any rookie RB aside from Barkley or Guice finish in the top 24 this year for PPR. In Dynasty, absolutely, I like him better.
FBG would agree. In dynasty, Collins is ranked 31st, behind all 8 1st round rookie RBs
Even in the dynasty value chart for July, FBG has Collins at a value of "7." Nyheim Hines is a "5" and is the only ranked rookie RB below Collins. Freeman is a "12."
The equivalent of a "7" back on May's dynasty value chart was 1.12/2.1 (8 and 6 respectively)
So according to FBG, Collins is absolutely worth a late 1st rounder in dynasty
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Its just, he's definitely worth a first. Mainly just logic and stuff not even eye-ball test. Like I said, you admit it yourself that he's at least a decent starter in the league. Those are your words. But you'd rather have a random third round pick guy you could get at 1.12. Have you factored the odds of a third round pick becoming even a starter in the NFL?Collins Owner A: my eyeball test says stud!
Collins Owner B: OMG, me too!!
Collins Owner C: He's worth a 1st easy!
Unbiased 3rd party: I dunno. I wouldn't pay a 1st.
All owners: get out you biased naysayer!
The Real Yoda
Footballguy
Definitely worth a 1st? Not the top half of this years 1sts...maybe a future first if you don't think it's gonna be a high one.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Well you can use whatever threshold to prove whatever you want, but it's not statistically viable. The 8 games when he "became the guy"; the four games Dixon "wore a brace". What about the 6 games when it was below 34 degrees? Or what about the 3 games he wore pink cleats? Sorry, you can't just pick and choose which carries matter. You haven't established any significant correlation on so small of a sample size. And you admitted not knowing the reason he "faded down the stretch". There is no correlation without causation.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Consensus fallacy.
Example: In 2006, bonds backed by sub-prime mortgages were considered a lot more valuable than their credit default swaps. 2 year later, the few people owning the latter made a lot of money when those mortgage backed securities were realized to have no worth, when everybody started defaulting on their loans.
Rookies and rookie picks aren't as valuable as everybody thinks they are. If you just played the odds, it's about 16% that random 3rd round pick becomes starter quality. Alex Collins already is starter quality according to the words of Harbs. But For the sake of conservitive-ness, let's give it a 50% chance he is able to maintain his starting job. 50% is still greater than 16%.
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It's almost like you didn't read my long list of recent players that had one good season - many of them with better draft pedigree and production in that one season than Collins had last year. I genuinely believe guys like Kerryon and Freeman have better odds of success than Collins. Either one would have been top 3 prospect if they came out in the previous couple years of drafts. I'm not going to ding them for coming out in a loaded class.
You are showing your bias if you want to pretend playing in pink cleats is akin to pointing out a guy was hampered by an injury or looking at a guy's stats when under a workload that you are hoping he gets this year. You should be concerned that Collins faded when he got a lot of touches. That's not me picking and choosing. That's just me looking at the data available. Ignore it at your own risk. As for not knowing the reason he faded, nobody does - it would be nice to know, but it isn't crucial. The important thing is that it happened. If you did something that hurt you, but didn't know why it hurt, would you keep doing it just bc you don't understand why it hurts? The reason matters a lot less than the result.
Like you've implied, it's a probability game. I personally feel that Freeman and Kerryon have a higher upside than Collins and a higher probability of putting up multiple startable seasons going forward (last year's doesn't help me now). I think Dixon is better than Booker and an old Blount. I think if Baltimore was that impressed with Collins they'd have given him a better + longer contract. I think Freeman and Kerryon are both in the long term plans for their teams, while I can't say the same for Collins. I know their respective teams' investment was larger. Collins was also drafted late and then cut by a running back-needy team.
So I don't like Collins' odds better than an early 2nd round pick or an early 3rd round pick with better offenses, more invested in them, and less competition. However, sometimes you roll snake eyes. It is certainly possible Collins has a better career than those guys. I just wouldn't say it is probable.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
comparing apples to giraffes...
no, rookies are not worth as much as people think they are, but neither is Collins. 2017 was far from a definitive season for Collins on if he can be a successful starter. just look at the last few pages.
you keep saying the odds of a 3rd rounder being successful are slim. yes, I can agree with the statistics. but you're saying that defending a 5th rounder who did not show, without a doubt, that he can be "the guy."
cloppbeast
Footballguy
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Your interpretation of the statistics has a confidence interval of about 2%. You don't seem to understand that you haven't established correlation or cause, as you continue to say you have no idea why he faded. You can't have correlation without causation.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He didn't show without a doubt, I agree with this. Any player can fall off a cliff. But the odds a guy who has had a good season already continues to be good > the odds of a mid-round rookie ever being good in the first place.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Great thread that's been helpful in my evaluation of Collins. Looking to add some RB depth and reached out to other who got him off waivers last year.
To get things started I threw out a second as what I considered fair value; he wants a first plus starter upgrade.
So yeah, much as we've seen in this thread, some real endowment effect going on with his owners. He'll be an interesting story of follow in 2018
To get things started I threw out a second as what I considered fair value; he wants a first plus starter upgrade.
So yeah, much as we've seen in this thread, some real endowment effect going on with his owners. He'll be an interesting story of follow in 2018
Football Jones
Footballguy
Collins got a reprieve when the Ravens didn't invest in the deep RB class.
Hopefully, Harbaugh will have more confidence in him this season. I'd love to see what Collins can do as a feature back.
Hopefully, Harbaugh will have more confidence in him this season. I'd love to see what Collins can do as a feature back.
ratbast
Footballguy
Collins owner here. All this Dixon talk doesn’t take into the following:
most starting RBs have capable backups now and other backs that are there when the OC wants to mix it up.
Of those backs we have Allen and Dixon with Collins. If Dixon shines so bright that he relegates Collins to share or bench, how long would you expect Dixon to hold up? You and I both know he’ll break any minute.
So I’ll take the floor of Collins as a big plus. Allan bothers me as a very capable COP but Dixon doesn’t scare me as much as I would bet against his health.
most starting RBs have capable backups now and other backs that are there when the OC wants to mix it up.
Of those backs we have Allen and Dixon with Collins. If Dixon shines so bright that he relegates Collins to share or bench, how long would you expect Dixon to hold up? You and I both know he’ll break any minute.
So I’ll take the floor of Collins as a big plus. Allan bothers me as a very capable COP but Dixon doesn’t scare me as much as I would bet against his health.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
yes, this is a good point. I think you are looking at it from this perspective though: Dixon does better than Collins who also does fairly well. Rather than Collins playing himself to the bench due to poor play. As Collins got more carries his ypc dropped. So perhaps he's best in small doses. I have no idea.
I guess as a former Collins owner I was mostly concerned about Collins doing bad based on how he ended the season, not really Dixon doing well. I dont see Dixon lighting up this preseason and taking the starting role just like that. that seems far fetched to me, especially with the coach saying positive things about Collins being the starter.
So if Collins does poorly, Dixon comes in and does better, then gets hurt, Collins is put back in and continues to run poorly, then I'm still left with a bad rb regardless.
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This is a key point. The ravens felt good enough about their RBS this year to skip over one of the best Rb classes in recent memory with this draft. They could have taken Chubb, guice, Ronald jones, kerryon, royce, etc.
Alex Collins is a huge reason why they skipped out on rb in the draft. He’s going to eat.
