Alvin Kamara entered Week 11 with 648 yards receiving, 357 more than any other running back. He has played two games since. How many receiving yards does he have now? 646. What can Taysom Hill do for your PPR value?
Yes, Kamara has one reception for -2 yards with Hill under center, but that’s not all. Hill and his power running have also managed to tank Kamara’s rushing value, with the running back going from an All-Pro trajectory to 24/99/1 as the Saints have beaten the Falcons and Broncos by a combined score of 55-12. Hill has managed 20/93 on the ground in that timespan, scoring a ridiculous four touchdowns.
With the Saints literally facing a practice squad receiver at quarterback on Sunday, Kamara was kept under wraps as Latavius Murray dominated garbage time with 36- and eight-yard scores over the game’s final 17 minutes. Regardless of when the production has come, Murray has out-rushed Kamara 173-99 on Hill’s watch.
What exactly do we do with all this? On the one hand, two games is two games. That’s especially true when the second was a glorified exhibition because the league doesn’t care about competitive balance in the year of COVID-19. On the other, small-sample sizes are the reality of the NFL, and we now have two games worth of Kamara struggling for rushing volume and no longer being involved as a pass catcher.
Drew Brees is expected to miss at least two more starts. For fantasy, they are the final week of the regular season and Week 1 of the playoffs. Will managers get anything from former meal ticket Kamara against the Falcons and Eagles, respectively, over the next two weeks? In the receptions department, two things are probably true at once: Kamara is going to catch fewer passes, but only one in two games is a fluke. Despite his doughnut with Atlanta two weeks ago, Sunday’s rematch should bring at least 3-4 against a defense famous for coughing up RB catches. Scrambling quarterbacks tend to check down less, but this Kamara center cannot hold.
In the rushing department, the picture is less rosy. Kamara, who has ceded 10-12 weekly handles to Murray all season, now has two competitors for short-yardage carries. Hill is also a threat in the gadget touches department. Kamara’s reduced pass catching hampers his ceiling. Fewer carries cuts the heart out of his floor.
Of course, this will continue to be a run-based offense for as long as Brees is sidelined. Even though he might view this as an opportunity to get Kamara a breather heading into the postseason, coach Sean Payton knows he can’t let Kamara die on the vine. We have probably seen Kamara’s two worst games with Hill under center. We just won’t be getting his Brees best. Mid-range to low-end RB1 now feels more appropriate than weekly top three.