RB Alvin Kamara, NO (1 Viewer)

[Deamon]

I don't see this being a story. It's not even being talked about on any fantasy sites at all. If anything, it might drop him a few spots so I can get him mid 2nd

 

[Ministry of Pain]

From the RB Thesis I wanted to release in one post but will now have to piece mail it one by one...anyways here is what I wrote using the information that he is being projected RB11 right now and at the Top of about Tier 3 from consensus media at various sites. That translates to roughly the Mid/Late 2nd and 3rd Round depending on the size of your league.

Alvin Kamara-7,500 yds, 67 TDs with 373 receptions leading to 1,285 touches and a career yds per touch of close to 6 yds…remember when I was writing about Joe Mixon and his 4.5 yds per touch…not per clip or per rush attempt but PER TOUCH. That means if you get the ball to Kamara twice you are almost guaranteed a 1st Down. 15-14-15-13 games played per season the last 4 seasons, he definitely is going to miss a couple games along the way if you look at the history.

The Moral Compass: I totally understand if some folks read the police report and many of the stories coming out about Kamara and his incident at the Pro Bowl in Vegas and say pass. The reality however is you are going to be facing several others competing to win and it's possible their moral compass might not point at 12 o'clock-North like yours, it’s possible they point at about 11:50 like yours truly. It appears as though Goodell isn’t prepared to take action on him in 2022 until the police proceedings unfold or come to an end. If Kamara is eligible to play for all 17 games and is being projected around RB10+ off the board, that seems like a great discount for a guy that can post Top 5 numbers almost any week you start him. The Head Coach has changed but it's the former OC so the offense should be similar and AK’s talent will be featured. That said I am very disappointed in his actions this past off season but have to be realistic about how others will perceive him in the Draft.

 

[Chaka]

Did Wolf Blitzer make it a headline on the Situation Room?

Is that the threshold for relevance?

Did Wolf Blitzer spend 30 minutes on the Deshaun Watson situation?

It is relevant to the notion that it was widespread news. And, they did discuss Watson.

Kamara was sports news and barely broke contain, if at all.

Right now it is nothing, right up until it isn't. It isn't outrageous to modify your draft board when there is something like this hanging over your head. There are plenty of equivalent talented players going all around him at current ADP, when there isn't that's where you take him. It's hardly a hot take.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

On the site I am looking at, it lines up PPR...

9-Barkley...injuries and a lousy team have plagued him since he was a Rookie
10-Jones...has a Top 25 RB competing with him on his own team
11-Kamara
12-Fournette...Look at the entire body of work and they have OL problems at the moment
13-Javonte Williams...Lot of folks think MG3 is a real threat here

And a lot of Studs at WR that are taken around this area as well, almost painful when a WR name is called in the mid 2nd to late 3rd Round.

 

[Doug B]

Depends on how severe the beating was. If it's blurry and unclear it's one thing, if it's clear video of a full on Henry Hill beat down that's something else entirely.

FWIW:

There are guys over on SaintsReport who claim to have seen a portion of the video on television (and they make a point of saying it's been somehow 'scrubbed' or 'blocked' from the Internet). They say that Kamara and the victim were partially obscured by a table or similar object in the footage.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It isn't outrageous to modify your draft board when there is something like this hanging over your head

Correct. That’s why he’s a 2nd round pick, and not a 1st.

All of this recent discussion is based on blustering by the victim’s attorney over his desire to get a leaked video that hasn’t leaked for 6 months.

IMO that tells me it’s not likely to leak for another 6 months. Making this a lot of noise and nothing that moves my needle on his current draft status.

I continue to believe he won’t be suspended until 2023.

 

[Chaka]

On the site I am looking at, it lines up PPR...

9-Barkley...injuries and a lousy team have plagued him since he was a Rookie
10-Jones...has a Top 25 RB competing with him on his own team
11-Kamara
12-Fournette...Look at the entire body of work and they have OL problems at the moment
13-Javonte Williams...Lot of folks think MG3 is a real threat here

And a lot of Studs at WR that are taken around this area as well, almost painful when a WR name is called in the mid 2nd to late 3rd Round.

Barkley is two years removed from his injury and is a guaranteed volume monster playing for, what will likely be his only shot at a big payday. All reports about him have been great.
Chubb is also there
Deebo
CeeDee
I have Jones lower than that because of Dillon but he may have the biggest TD upside outside Taylor & McCaffrey
Fournette is a 3-down + goalline guy in a top offense. He finished top 5 RB last year.
I'm one of the guys who thinks Gordon will take away more than most people think from Javonte

 

[Chaka]

It isn't outrageous to modify your draft board when there is something like this hanging over your head

I continue to believe he won’t be suspended until 2023.

I happen to agree.

But Buzbee sniping to get that video may motivate renewed efforts to leak it.

 

[LawFitz]

It isn't outrageous to modify your draft board when there is something like this hanging over your head

Correct. That’s why he’s a 2nd round pick, and not a 1st.

All of this recent discussion is based on blistering by the victim’s attorney over his desire to get a leaked video that hasn’t leaked for 6 months.

IMO that tells me it’s not likely to leak for another 6 months. Making this a lot of noise and nothing that moves my needle on his current draft status.

I continue to believe he won’t be suspended until 2023.

I continue to believe you aren't giving Buzbee the proper respect he deserves as a potential 2022 Kamara derailer.

Tony Buzbee Pressuring NFL, Las Vegas Prosecutors to Tackle New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara - Sports Illustrated New Orleans Saints News, Analysis and More

Houston attorney is planning a legal attack on New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara and NFL.

www.si.com

"The Buzbee Law Firm is currently preparing to file a lawsuit against Mr. Kamara, his associates, and the venue at which the beating occurred. Mr. Greene's injuries resulting from the unprovoked beating include spinal injuries in his neck and back, as well as a severe traumatic brain injury"

Four critical elements of Buzbee's statement follow the pattern of the attorney's strategy in handling the complaints against NFL quarterback Deshaun Watson.

1. Labeling his client Darnell Greene "the victim."
2. Buzbee's team is "actively collecting information" and publicly requests that "all witnesses who have information to come forward."
3. "We call on the appropriate authorities to exact swift punishment against all parties involved in the attack."
4. "We also encourage the NFL to take immediate action."

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It isn't outrageous to modify your draft board when there is something like this hanging over your head

I continue to believe he won’t be suspended until 2023.

I happen to agree.

But Buzbee sniping to get that video may motivate renewed efforts to leak it.

Color me skeptical. If TMZ couldn’t get it when it was breaking news, I don’t believe it can be got.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It isn't outrageous to modify your draft board when there is something like this hanging over your head

Correct. That’s why he’s a 2nd round pick, and not a 1st.

All of this recent discussion is based on blistering by the victim’s attorney over his desire to get a leaked video that hasn’t leaked for 6 months.

IMO that tells me it’s not likely to leak for another 6 months. Making this a lot of noise and nothing that moves my needle on his current draft status.

I continue to believe he won’t be suspended until 2023.

I continue to believe you aren't giving Buzbee the proper respect he deserves as a potential 2022 Kamara derailer.

Tony Buzbee Pressuring NFL, Las Vegas Prosecutors to Tackle New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara - Sports Illustrated New Orleans Saints News, Analysis and More

Houston attorney is planning a legal attack on New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara and NFL.

www.si.com

"The Buzbee Law Firm is currently preparing to file a lawsuit against Mr. Kamara, his associates, and the venue at which the beating occurred. Mr. Greene's injuries resulting from the unprovoked beating include spinal injuries in his neck and back, as well as a severe traumatic brain injury"

Four critical elements of Buzbee's statement follow the pattern of the attorney's strategy in handling the complaints against NFL quarterback Deshaun Watson.

1. Labeling his client Darnell Greene "the victim."
2. Buzbee's team is "actively collecting information" and publicly requests that "all witnesses who have information to come forward."
3. "We call on the appropriate authorities to exact swift punishment against all parties involved in the attack."
4. "We also encourage the NFL to take immediate action."

I’ve read from at least four different respected legal analyst who believe nothing will happen until 2023. Everything I have read cites the NFL policy to not get involved until after the legal process has run its course.

Buzbee has literally nothing to add except noise.

I am not an attorney myself, so I will go with the expert Analysis here.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am drafting him with as much confidence as you can take anyone in the 2nd round. Kamara is about as reliably great as any player when on the field. There’s plenty of players going round 2 who might play 14-17 games and still be disappointments.

 

[Doug B]

Color me skeptical. If TMZ couldn’t get it when it was breaking news, I don’t believe it can be got.

Reading between the lines and generalizing here: I believe in the last several years, surveilling businesses/entities have learned some PR lessons from previous leaked-video situations -- especially in the social media era.

I would bet chain-of-custody and access to surveillance recordings was considerably more lax 5-10 years ago than it is now. A decade ago, TMZ might have been able to wave low six figures at an overnight security guard and gotten a copy. I would think these days, that same level of security staff may have seen the video live but no longer have sufficient operational privileges to make their own copies of sections of video.

So instead of maybe needing one out of a dozen low-level people to take a check and break rank, TMZ would need maybe one of two or three highly-placed hotel staff to crack. Hotel staff with personal stakes in the enterprise and are compensated and comfortable enough to reliably pass on a seven-figure bribe (if they'd even offer that much) on principle.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I am drafting him with as much confidence as you can take anyone in the 2nd round. Kamara is about as reliably great as any player when on the field. There’s plenty of players going round 2 who might play 14-17 games and still be disappointments.

This aspect occurred to me as well.

Say he settles, the NFL leaps into action faster than they ever have before and issues a 6-game suspension.

Kamara appeals and its reduced to 4.

13 games out of a potential top 5 overall PPR asset still sounds pretty good to me in the 2nd round.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

I am drafting him with as much confidence as you can take anyone in the 2nd round. Kamara is about as reliably great as any player when on the field. There’s plenty of players going round 2 who might play 14-17 games and still be disappointments.

This aspect occurred to me as well.

Say he settles, the NFL leaps into action faster than they ever have before and issues a 6-game suspension.

Kamara appeals and its reduced to 4.

13 games out of a potential top 5 overall PPR asset still sounds pretty good to me in the 2nd round.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

Kamara averaged just over 20 points per game in his 6 games with Winston last year. 260 points would have been good for RB5 last year.

 

[habsfan]

If I'm going to regret my 2nd round pick, this is the type of regret I prefer.

 

[travdogg]

Setting aside any potential suspension talks, am I the only one a little worried about Sean Payton being gone? I've got Kamara as a mid/late 2nd rounder, so someone else will probably get him, but I worry about his catch ceiling, and about the offense being league average.

On the site I am looking at, it lines up PPR...

9-Barkley...injuries and a lousy team have plagued him since he was a Rookie
10-Jones...has a Top 25 RB competing with him on his own team
11-Kamara
12-Fournette...Look at the entire body of work and they have OL problems at the moment
13-Javonte Williams...Lot of folks think MG3 is a real threat here

And a lot of Studs at WR that are taken around this area as well, almost painful when a WR name is called in the mid 2nd to late 3rd Round.

I think Javonte is the guy on that list I'd take Kamara over, though if that's the best on the board when I pick, I'm probably looking at WR/TE.

 

[Chaka]

I am drafting him with as much confidence as you can take anyone in the 2nd round. Kamara is about as reliably great as any player when on the field. There’s plenty of players going round 2 who might play 14-17 games and still be disappointments.

This aspect occurred to me as well.

Say he settles, the NFL leaps into action faster than they ever have before and issues a 6-game suspension.

Kamara appeals and its reduced to 4.

13 games out of a potential top 5 overall PPR asset still sounds pretty good to me in the 2nd round.

Again, I'm pretty sure settlement isn't up to Kamara at this point. It's up to the LVPD, if they decide not to pursue criminal charges then it may move to civil court where Kamara can try to settle.

If LVPD pursues the criminal complaint then Kamara'd options are plea vs not plea.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Setting aside any potential suspension talks, am I the only one a little worried about Sean Payton being gone? I've got Kamara as a mid/late 2nd rounder, so someone else will probably get him, but I worry about his catch ceiling, and about the offense being league average.

On the site I am looking at, it lines up PPR...

9-Barkley...injuries and a lousy team have plagued him since he was a Rookie
10-Jones...has a Top 25 RB competing with him on his own team
11-Kamara
12-Fournette...Look at the entire body of work and they have OL problems at the moment
13-Javonte Williams...Lot of folks think MG3 is a real threat here

And a lot of Studs at WR that are taken around this area as well, almost painful when a WR name is called in the mid 2nd to late 3rd Round.

I think Javonte is the guy on that list I'd take Kamara over, though if that's the best on the board when I pick, I'm probably looking at WR/TE.

I'm very bullish on Javonte, I'm with you he is likely the best of this group I listed however Kamara is a proven production machine.

Someone was asking about the departure of Payton but the OC was retained and named head coach. I believe Dennis Allen was a disaster in Oakland but he's 49 now and worked under Payton like Dan Campbell who everyone seems to be liking in Detroit. The Saints have more talent than Detroit does at the moment despite an interception prone QB. Can Winston make it a whole year on that hard turf in the dome? Tallahassee and Tampa, soft Bermuda grass.

I don't think you can get them both(Kamara and Javonte) on the 2/3 turn but it is interesting some of the RBs available in say the Mid 2nd thru the Middle the 3rd round.

 

[[icon]]

Absolute STEAL at ADP.
A must draft damn near anywhere in the 2nd in PPR.

Suspension unlikely and Ingram is cheap. RB 3-9 range of outcomes likely.

Hai

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I am drafting him with as much confidence as you can take anyone in the 2nd round. Kamara is about as reliably great as any player when on the field. There’s plenty of players going round 2 who might play 14-17 games and still be disappointments.

This aspect occurred to me as well.

Say he settles, the NFL leaps into action faster than they ever have before and issues a 6-game suspension.

Kamara appeals and its reduced to 4.

13 games out of a potential top 5 overall PPR asset still sounds pretty good to me in the 2nd round.

Again, I'm pretty sure settlement isn't up to Kamara at this point. It's up to the LVPD, if they decide not to pursue criminal charges then it may move to civil court where Kamara can try to settle.

If LVPD pursues the criminal complaint then Kamara'd options are plea vs not plea.

You can’t “settle” a criminal case. You can agree to plea to a lesser crime perhaps. I’m not sure why “settling” keeps getting brought up here, except in the context of Buzbee who would be pursuing a civil action.

 

[Faust]

NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters

"This was a little difficult at first (receiver Chris Olave gets an honorable mention), but after some self-deliberation, the choice became abundantly clear…Running back Alvin Kamara...The Kamara we have watched during this training camp will be a force in the regular season."

https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1562521856774930432?s=21

 

[Faust]

Luke Johnson @ByLukeJohson

Mentioned it briefly in here, but Alvin Kamara has looked phenomenal all camp. Don't buy the downtick in numbers last year when defenses were able to focus so much attention on him, because the dude is unreal and now he has some help.

https://twitter.com/bylukejohnson/status/1562149467633090561?s=21

 

[Faust]

New Orleans Saints training camp observations | Wednesday, Aug. 24

Excerpt:

Coach Dennis Allen has mentioned that Kamara has had his best camp in his six-year career. He's never looked faster, he's never looked quicker, and even better, he has RARELY missed a day of work, other than the vet days, and there really haven't been many of those. He has broken several long runs in practice on this stout defense and, of course, he's always a threat out of the backfield as a receiver. All the while he has gone about his business quietly and under the radar of the camp storylines. The Kamara we have watched during this training camp will be a force in the regular season.

 

[VikingFrog]

New Orleans Saints training camp observations | Wednesday, Aug. 24

Excerpt:

Coach Dennis Allen has mentioned that Kamara has had his best camp in his six-year career. He's never looked faster, he's never looked quicker, and even better, he has RARELY missed a day of work, other than the vet days, and there really haven't been many of those. He has broken several long runs in practice on this stout defense and, of course, he's always a threat out of the backfield as a receiver. All the while he has gone about his business quietly and under the radar of the camp storylines. The Kamara we have watched during this training camp will be a force in the regular season.

That’s my second round running back. That’s my teammate. :said with tears in my eyes like TO talking about Tony Romo:

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Buzbee has literally nothing to add except noise.

I think the key point is that Buzbee is not here to give you fantasy advice. His job is to advance his client's interest, presumably by putting pressure on the league/LVPD to act. I have no idea if anything will happen this season, but the fact that he wants something to happen this season doesn't tell you a whole lot.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Buzbee has literally nothing to add except noise.

I think the key point is that Buzbee is not here to give you fantasy advice. His job is to advance his client's interest, presumably by putting pressure on the league/LVPD to act. I have no idea if anything will happen this season, but the fact that he wants something to happen this season doesn't tell you a whole lot.

I mean, yes - of course. He will make noise in the public space.

I’m just not sure it will have any impact on the legal process, which, in turn, won’t have an impact on AK for 2022.

Which could make him a bargain.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I think buzbee misread this situation. If he thinks the public cares about a 300lb pimp/drug dealer getting beat up he’s mistaken.

Nobody cares.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Depends on how severe the beating was. If it's blurry and unclear it's one thing, if it's clear video of a full on Henry Hill beat down that's something else entirely.

FWIW:

There are guys over on SaintsReport who claim to have seen a portion of the video on television (and they make a point of saying it's been somehow 'scrubbed' or 'blocked' from the Internet). They say that Kamara and the victim were partially obscured by a table or similar object in the footage.

A lot of unrelated Will Ferrell hate in that thread for some reason
For Kamara, he was one of my favorite players. But curb stomping an unconscious person is a ***** move. It's just as weak as knockout game, sucker punch guy. I want nothing to do with him anymore if that's actually the case. Credit to his Ray Donovan team though for somehow getting it disappeared from the internet and social media.

 

[VikingFrog]

For Kamara, he was one of my favorite players. But curb stomping an unconscious person is a ***** move.

Do you have a link to the fact that Kamara curb stomped the guy? All I read was that he punched him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For Kamara, he was one of my favorite players. But curb stomping an unconscious person is a ***** move.

Do you have a link to the fact that Kamara curb stomped the guy? All I read was that he punched him.

There no reporting to suggest any curb stomping occurred.

 

[Chaka]

For Kamara, he was one of my favorite players. But curb stomping an unconscious person is a ***** move.

Do you have a link to the fact that Kamara curb stomped the guy? All I read was that he punched him.

Up to eight times while the dude was unconscious, allegedly.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

For Kamara, he was one of my favorite players. But curb stomping an unconscious person is a ***** move.

Do you have a link to the fact that Kamara curb stomped the guy? All I read was that he punched him.

The guy was tweeting the day after his “vicious” beating.

 

[Kevrunner]

For Kamara, he was one of my favorite players. But curb stomping an unconscious person is a ***** move.

Do you have a link to the fact that Kamara curb stomped the guy? All I read was that he punched him.

Here is link to an article that talks about the police report.

Police Report

 

[VikingFrog]

Here is link to an article that talks about the police report.

Police Report

That doesn’t say anything about him curb stomping anyone.

It also doesn’t say anything about him punching someone who was unconscious.

It says he punched the victim 8 times and 3 of them when he was on the ground.

Full disclosure: I’m not trying to defend Kamara or his actions… just that people in this thread seem to be launching “facts” that I can’t find anywhere.

 

[VikingFrog]

The guy was tweeting the day after his “vicious” beating.

There’s a picture of his face. He got messed up. But that doesn’t mean he can’t tweet.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

The guy was tweeting the day after his “vicious” beating.

There’s a picture of his face. He got messed up. But that doesn’t mean he can’t tweet.

Blood makes things look bad. Woulda liked to see a pic after the blood was washed off. I’ve looked like a murder victim after cutting myself shaving.

 

[VikingFrog]

Blood makes things look bad. Woulda liked to see a pic after the blood was washed off. I’ve looked like a murder victim after cutting myself shaving.

https://www.abc4.com/news/national/photos-show-injuries-from-las-vegas-nightclub-beating-allegedly-involving-nfls-alvin-kamara/

The real story here is that the victim was a Dead Head.

Now I’m really on his side.

 

[massraider]

They say that Kamara and the victim were partially obscured by a table or similar object in the footage.

I am thrilled that the possible savior of all four of my teams this year might be a Table in Vegas.

 

[Kevrunner]

Here is link to an article that talks about the police report.

Police Report

That doesn’t say anything about him curb stomping anyone.

It also doesn’t say anything about him punching someone who was unconscious.

It says he punched the victim 8 times and 3 of them when he was on the ground.

Full disclosure: I’m not trying to defend Kamara or his actions… just that people in this thread seem to be launching “facts” that I can’t find anywhere.

Here’s a article regarding the victim being unconscious. Never seen anything regarding curb stomping, probably just getting kicked while he was down is more accurate.

Another Article

 

[TwinTurbo]

For Kamara, he was one of my favorite players. But curb stomping an unconscious person is a ***** move.

Do you have a link to the fact that Kamara curb stomped the guy? All I read was that he punched him.

There no reporting to suggest any curb stomping occurred.

Just to clarify, I didn't mean literally stomping him on a curb, although reportedly stomping did occur. Rather a continued beatdown on a person that is no longer conscious and that he didn't even knock out. Total ***** move.

 

[VikingFrog]

I am thrilled that the possible savior of all four of my teams this year might be a Table in Vegas.

Anyone drafting him hope this suspension gets tabled till 2023.

: pulls down CSI Miami sunglasses :

 

[Dr. Octopus]

For Kamara, he was one of my favorite players. But curb stomping an unconscious person is a ***** move.

Do you have a link to the fact that Kamara curb stomped the guy? All I read was that he punched him.

The guy was tweeting the day after his “vicious” beating.

So we know they didn’t break his hands at least.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I am thrilled that the possible savior of all four of my teams this year might be a Table in Vegas.

Anyone drafting him hope this suspension gets tabled till 2023

This is my best guess. Redraft safe, dynasty/ keeper an eventual problem is still possible.

 

[Mongidig]

I wish I was as confident as you all that Kamara is safe for this year. He's landing right on my second round pick in all of my mocks. He could miss games because he is required to be in court in LV. I would also be concerned that this is gonna be in his head especially as it gets closer to any future hearings. I know Schefter is making it sound good but anything can happen. I gambled on Zeke a few years back and lost. I think I'll let someone else have him. I'll happily take Mixon or Jones or Kelce.

 

[Chaka]

I wish I was as confident as you all that Kamara is safe for this year. He's landing right on my second round pick in all of my mocks. He could miss games because he is required to be in court in LV. I would also be concerned that this is gonna be in his head especially as it gets closer to any future hearings. I know Schefter is making it sound good but anything can happen. I gambled on Zeke a few years back and lost. I think I'll let someone else have him. I'll happily take Mixon or Jones or Kelce.

He's an unknown for that reason, which is why he isn't a mid-high first round pick. I'd there were no off-field issue he probably wouldn't last until pick 10 in most standard leagues (inferior 1QB leagues @Deamon , sorry couldn't help it brother).

His seems to factor in the uncertainty.

 

[VikingFrog]

I would also be concerned that this is gonna be in his head especially as it gets closer to any future hearings.

For what it’s worth. All reports point to him putting his head down, putting in the work, and having a great camp.

No comment on potential suspension or missing time.

 

[Phantom Knight]

Setting aside any potential suspension talks, am I the only one a little worried about Sean Payton being gone? I've got Kamara as a mid/late 2nd rounder, so someone else will probably get him, but I worry about his catch ceiling, and about the offense being league average.

These are my sentiments exactly. Certainly with me 2nd round draft pick being the 1.9 (10-team league), I won't have to worry about deciding how low is low enough to pick Kamara.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

In the 6 full games Kamara played with Winston, he had 25 catches for 241 yards and 4 receiving TD's. He averaged over 20 points per game PPR. The OC has been with the Saints for 15 years. As to the Court case, it looks to me like the dates have been scheduled for the benefit of the Saints. The first status date was continued until just before the Draft in late April. If anyone was pushing for a fast resolution, the Saints could draft a RB. It was continued again until just after camp opened. Once again if anyone was pushing the Saints had time to bring in a Vet RB and get him up to speed. The late September date will be continued until just after the Saints 11th game. If they are 4-7 or worse, Kamara will cut a deal and take his six games to end the season. I think they will be at least 6-5 at that point. In my opinion, in redraft you can confidently take him at pick 9 or 10.