RB Alvin Kamara, NO (2 Viewers)

[Kevrunner]

Looks like 100% that the video does exists. Once Buzbee gets a copy from the authorities, it might get leaked. Kamara is said to have punched the victim 8 times after he was unconscious, wow.

Police have claimed that the altercation between Kamara and the alleged victim was reportedly caught on surveillance video. The video allegedly shows Kamara putting his hands on the victim’s chest to prevent him from entering the elevator, and the victim pushing Kamara’s hands away before Chiefs cornerback Chris Lammons allegedly punched the victim in the face knocking him unconscious. Police also say that Kamara allegedly punched the victim up to eight times.

 

[menobrown]

I read this last night and it's concerning to me . I don't think the article that was linked here referenced it but the article I read said that Buzbee is asking anyone with evidence to come forward and said he believes the incident was captured on security cameras. By him asking anyone with evidence to come forward I feel like he's now incentivizing someone to provide him video evidence and that's now an increased concern.

 

[menobrown]

Looks like 100% that the video does exists.

I was typing my post when you made your post but yes this was the major negative takeaway I had when I read this last night. Odds that video existed was always high but it being closer to confirmation and Buzbee asking for evidence to come forward is a concern to me.

In general you just don't want Buzbee on the scene. This thing has remained relatively quiet and we all know the NFL is reactionary to PR so you just don't like to see Buzzbee stirring stuff up.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Looks like 100% that the video does exists.

I was typing my post when you made your post but yes this was the major negative takeaway I had when I read this last night. Odds that video existed was always high but it being closer to confirmation and Buzbee asking for evidence to come forward is a concern to me.

In general you just don't want Buzbee on the scene. This thing has remained relatively quiet and we all know the NFL is reactionary to PR so you just don't like to see Buzzbee stirring stuff up.

Couple things:
1. We’ve known the video existed from day 1. It’’s Vegas. There’s cameras everywhere. We knew this from the earliest reporting.
2. Buzbee can say, do, or make as much of a circus as he wants. The NFL’s policy is to wait until this has gone through the legal system. We saw exactly this with Watson. The NFL didn’t begin their investigation until the GJ was finished. Then the NFL’s investigation took months, and another month to resolve with Robinson’s ruling. And then another couple of weeks for the NFL’s appeal, and then another couple weeks for negotiation/settlement.

This case has been successfully delayed for 60 days. Then it will take months in court, and months to resolve legally and by thE NFL.

Feeling pretty confident Kamara doesn’t miss a game in 2022.

 

[Doug B]

... Buzbee is asking anyone with evidence to come forward and said he believes the incident was captured on security cameras

Um, yes, Mr. Buzbee ... there are stills of the security camera footage in the police report. Harrah's and the LV Police have not seen fit to release the video.

 

[VikingFrog]

People can argue what’s going to happen and this is all a ruse by an annoying BuzzyBee.

But the truth of the matter is, stories like these WILL affect his ADP these next few days and weeks especially.

I drafted him last night in the second round and opened up this article right after the draft and felt a little sick.

Would I have drafted him there if I read this article right before the draft? Probably not.

 

[Capella]

Undraftable for me in the first two rounds. Way too much risk that early.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But the truth of the matter is, stories like these WILL affect his ADP these next few days and weeks especially.

I drafted him last night in the second round and opened up this article right after the draft and felt a little sick.

Would I have drafted him there if I read this article right before the draft? Probably not.

I hope it pushes him to the 3rd.

 

[menobrown]

The NFL’s policy is to wait until this has gone through the legal system. We saw exactly this with Watson

But it's not what we saw for ADP, Hunt and Rice when visual evidence hit the media and the league went into PR CYA mode.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The NFL’s policy is to wait until this has gone through the legal system. We saw exactly this with Watson

But it's not what we saw for ADP, Hunt and Rice when visual evidence hit the media and the league went into PR CYA mode.

The league policy remains the same though. They will not do anything until the criminal Justice system has run its course.

Things have changed since Rice/Hunt. The NFL has been extremely consistent.

I’ve never seen worse optics than 60+ allegations of sexual assault in the #metio era, yet the league waited until the GJ was resolved.
I put the chances of Kamara missing games in 2022 at less than 5%.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The NFL’s policy is to wait until this has gone through the legal system.

They can and have used the exempt list in the past for some high profile matters while waiting for the process (Peterson’s child abuse claims).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The NFL’s policy is to wait until this has gone through the legal system.

They can and have used the exempt list in the past for some high profile matters while waiting for the process (Peterson’s child abuse claims).

True, but most analysts I’ve read don’t believe this would be an exempt list situation.

They could all be wrong, but it’s a bit late in the preseason to impose that on a team. From what I’ve read, they would have done it already so as to not unfairly punish the team - forcing them to go into the season with Ingram & a bunch of scrubs would be more of a punishment for the Saints than Kamara.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I’ve never seen worse optics than 60+ allegations of sexual assault in the #metio era, yet the league waited until the GJ was resolved.

If you remember the exempt list was being talked about with Watson but wasn’t necessary since Watson and the Texans mutually agreed he’d sit out in 2020.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ve never seen worse optics than 60+ allegations of sexual assault in the #metio era, yet the league waited until the GJ was resolved.

If you remember the exempt list was being talked about with Watson but wasn’t necessary since Watson and the Texans mutually agreed he’d sit out in 2020.

Yep - I do recall that. I just don’t see the urgency here by the league. This happened at the pro bowl. That’s a long time ago. I don’t see anything that’s changed other than the legal process has been dragged out.

If the NFL were to do this, why wait until
~20 days before the season?

If it hasn’t happened by now, I’m skeptical it will.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The NFL’s policy is to wait until this has gone through the legal system.

They can and have used the exempt list in the past for some high profile matters while waiting for the process (Peterson’s child abuse claims).

True, but most analysts I’ve read don’t believe this would be an exempt list situation.

They could all be wrong, but it’s a bit late in the preseason to impose that on a team. From what I’ve read, they would have done it already so as to not unfairly punish the team - forcing them to go into the season with Ingram & a bunch of scrubs would be more of a punishment for the Saints than Kamara.

I have him on one dynasty team that’s a legit contender (3rd place finish as the top seed heading into the playoffs in 2021) so I hope he plays - but still don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling about it yet.

 

[Doug B]

Done some more reading, and two things seem apparent -- neither of which gives us perfectly clear picture:

1) Roger Goodell, on paper, still has essentially "God" powers over the Exempt List. However ...
2) ... he has been much more hesitant to use it over the last few seasons than he was in 2014-17.

2017 was the year Ezekiel Elliot sued the league to stay a six-game suspension for multiple allegations of domestic abuse. Elliot and the NFLPA fought the league on several legal levels and staved off the suspension for the first nine weeks of the season. Elliot eventually accepted his suspension in November when the U.S. Court of Appeals upheld the league's position. Elliot sat out weeks 10-15 that 2017 season.

So what does this have to do with Kamara in 2022? OK, here I have to resort to spitballing a bit: It appears that Goodell is applying the Exempt List designation much less often and more judiciously in recent years -- most notably in declining to apply it to Antonio Brown in 2019 and to Deshaun Watson in 2021. I believe the 2017 Elliot lawsuit -- though ultimately won by the league -- has led to Goodell (and the owners whose interests he represents) to think more about the PR hit the league takes when wrangling publicly with players over suspensions. The fallback position seems to be now to "let the legal process play out" -- so long as there's nothing released publicly (like a compelling video or firearm-related charges) that embarrasses the league, rattles sponsors, and forces a response.

For all the attention Kamara's case gets on this board and on Saintsreport ... this case has not transcended the NFL news cycle. It's not gotten out into the mainstream news cycle and has thus remained low-profile enough to not hurt the league's PR. Therefore, no preemptive league action six months past the incident, and IMHO a low risk of an Exempt List application this season.

Quoting myself from August 11th to sort of give the current lay of the land regarding Goodell's recent use of the Exempt List. "Recent" meaning "last few years" -- I think Hot Sauce is right that things aren't the same PR-wise today as they were in the mid-2010s.

Now ... the kicker right now is whether Buzbee can actually do something to make release of the Kamara video more likely than it was before his involvement? Buzbee can perhaps throw cash at it ... but it's hard to think this hasn't already been tried. Are the TMZs of the world as motivated to bribe/overpay for this Kamara video as they were in the past for other videos? The Kamara video lacks - for right or wrong -- the opposite-sex hook of other videos such as Ray Rice, Kareem Hunt, and Joe Mixon. Something has prevented that video from getting released for over six months -- is that something still in play?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Something has prevented that video from getting released for over six months -- is that something still in play?

Likely the fact that the casino “owns” the tape, and the police possess it.

If it hasn’t leaked by now, I doubt it will.

 

[menobrown]

I’ve never seen worse optics than 60+ allegations of sexual assault in the #metio era, yet the league waited until the GJ was resolved.

If you remember the exempt list was being talked about with Watson but wasn’t necessary since Watson and the Texans mutually agreed he’d sit out in 2020.

That's the key, Watson was removed from public image/playing. Similar thing with Antonio Brown a few years ago. NE cut him after the allegations hit and no one picked him up all year because the league sent out memo saying they might put him on the exempt list but no one picked him up was no longer necessary. AB was not even facing criminal charges.

Way this works negatively for Kamara if the video comes out. World is not as harsh on male on male violence vs male on female but if that video shows Kamara and crew stomping on a helpless guy it won't play well. Then Buzbee will start crowing about the NFL does not really care about violence, it's all an act, etc,etc. I just now when that's happened in the past few years I NFL has a way of making the player go away for awhile.

I still think odds are he won't get suspended but I don't think it's correct to discount that Buzbee running around asking people to send him evidence and spotlighting what was otherwise kind of quiet situation does not increase those odds.

 

[jm192]

Is he going 1st round yet?

I've done a lot of mocks on yahoo, and he still goes 2nd. It feels like all but assured he's going to get through this season without a suspension.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Way this works negatively for Kamara if the video comes out. World is not as harsh on male on male violence vs male on female but if that video shows Kamara and crew stomping on a helpless guy it won't play well. Then

But the public has already read those details and seen a still photo of it - it went around for a week when this happened.

The shock value is highest the moment the news breaks. At this point everyone is like “yeah, so?”

As someone mentioned, TMZ cares more about M/F violence than M/M. So do most news outlets. There’s just nothing sordid about this. It’s a brawl, it was a bunch of NFL-ers & thuggy friends beating a dude up.

And it fell out of the news cycle like 72 hours after it happens. The public saw it, and collectively said “meh”.

Buzbee can try to make a circus out of it, but I kinda doubt it generates much interest.

The only concern I have is that Kamara agrees to settle. Then the NFL could issue a fine or suspension, or both, I’m not sure of that timeline either. From what I’ve heard, a settlement would likely occur after the 60 days, and at a point where Kamara’s team feels he’s in legal jeopardy. Then the NFL would still have to conduct an investigation,

So figure 90-120 days? That puts this at ~December when an NFL ruling would be made, and then Kamara can appeal. That’ll burn another month. Now we’re in January, and those who drafted Kamara in the 2nd or (gasp!) 3rd will be counting their LCG winnings.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Is he going 1st round yet?

I've done a lot of mocks on yahoo, and he still goes 2nd. It feels like all but assured he's going to get through this season without a suspension.

Pretty consistently 2nd.

 

[Fear The Turtle]

Video = game changer, esp. if it shows him punching a prone, defenseless victim. I'm passing. Don't want to worry about it.

 

[Chaka]

Video = game changer, esp. if it shows him punching a prone, defenseless victim. I'm passing. Don't want to worry about it.

Prone = face down
Supine = face up

Sorry, stuff like that can be part of my OCD. Your point is well taken and I absolutely agree.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Video = game changer, esp. if it shows him punching a prone, defenseless victim. I'm passing. Don't want to worry about it.

We already know he did that though (see: @Chaka’s clarification)

We’ve known it since the day it happened.

Video of the sun rising doesn’t mean everyone will be fearful of that fiery ball in the sky, and video of this (which we already know exists and have seen stills from) will not be a “game changer”.

It is what it is at this point, and the timeline for discipline seems pretty well understood.

The only thing that’s changed is Buzbee running his mouth, which doesn’t actually effect anything.

 

[Fear The Turtle]

Video = game changer, esp. if it shows him punching a prone, defenseless victim. I'm passing. Don't want to worry about it.

We already know he did that though (see: @Chaka’s clarification)

We’ve known it since the day it happened.

Video of the sun rising doesn’t mean everyone will be fearful of that fiery ball in the sky, and video of this (which we already know exists and have seen stills from) will not be a “game changer”.

It is what it is at this point, and the timeline for discipline seems pretty well understood.

The only thing that’s changed is Buzbee running his mouth, which doesn’t actually effect anything.

I respectfully disagree. People can be shallow sheep. (Guilty.) We have to be bludgeoned (pardon the pun) sometimes to have something driven home. We all know what the endless re-running of that video will do, esp. with enhancements, slow mo, etc.

 

[menobrown]

But the public has already read those details and seen a still photo of it - it went around for a week when this happened.

The shock value is highest the moment the news breaks. At this point everyone is like “yeah, so?”

I know it won't play the same as one punch KO'ing your wife and dragging her limp body around like a "I don't give AF manner" but you may not be remembering the timeline of the Ray Rice incident. To recap. We heard about the assault, saw a video of him dragging her body. Everyone accepted his apology and 2 game suspension. Then we the rest of the video came out and Ray Ray went away forevers.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I respectfully disagree. People can be shallow sheep. (Guilty.) We have to be bludgeoned (pardon the pun) sometimes to have something driven home. We all know what the endless re-running of that video will do, esp. with enhancements, slow mo, etc.

As of now, months after the fact, there is no video to run.

So as of now, nothing has changed, and seems incredibly unlikely to change,

I vividly recall what happened to Zeke’s draft stock the year allegations were made. He was going to be out for the year, he was going to jail, yada yada yada.

Nothing happened. Was drafted in the 2nd in my league & went on to finish as a FF monster.

This “breaking” nothingburger about a lawyer looking for a video to release feels similar.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But the public has already read those details and seen a still photo of it - it went around for a week when this happened.

The shock value is highest the moment the news breaks. At this point everyone is like “yeah, so?”

I know it won't play the same as one punch KO'ing your wife and dragging her limp body around like a "I don't give AF manner" but you may not be remembering the timeline of the Ray Rice incident. To recap. We heard about the assault, saw a video of him dragging her body. Everyone accepted his apology and 2 game suspension. Then we the rest of the video came out and Ray Ray went away forevers.

But that was a different time. NFL discipline has changed significantly since then.

And their policy has consistently been to wait for the legal process to run its course.

And considering they’ve said and done absolutely nothing since the pro bowl when this happened, I’m skeptical they’re suddenly going to leap into action.

And that’s all based on a huge IF the video surfaces. And as much as Buzbee is working to make that happen, you can bet Kamara’s legal representation is working just as hard to make certain it doesn’t.

IMO if the video was coming out, we’d have all watched 5x by now.

 

[LawFitz]

video of this (which we already know exists and have seen stills from) will not be a “game changer”.

It is what it is at this point, and the timeline for discipline seems pretty well understood.

The only thing that’s changed is Buzbee running his mouth, which doesn’t actually effect anything.

Couldn't disagree more with this sentiment (until we see the video). And with the bee buzzing, we just might very soon. I do think the odds of Kamara facing suspension are still less than 50% as of right now - but things might progress rapidly and unexpectedly from here. We need to discount the situation accordingly in drafts until we get more clarity, which many/most/all won't before draft day.

 

[Ilov80s]

From purely a FF perspective, I don't like to see anyone stirring the pot. Still, getting Kamara in the 2nd is such a deal that it seems worth the risk. Over his career, here are his RB finishes in .5 ppr ppg:

5, 2, 10, 4, 4. The year he finished 10th, he was dealing with a high ankle sprain most of the season.

 

[Chaka]

Video = game changer, esp. if it shows him punching a prone, defenseless victim. I'm passing. Don't want to worry about it.

We already know he did that though (see: @Chaka’s clarification)

We’ve known it since the day it happened.

Video of the sun rising doesn’t mean everyone will be fearful of that fiery ball in the sky, and video of this (which we already know exists and have seen stills from) will not be a “game changer”.

It is what it is at this point, and the timeline for discipline seems pretty well understood.

The only thing that’s changed is Buzbee running his mouth, which doesn’t actually effect anything.

Knowing and seeing are two very different animals.

The knowing hasn't gone viral outside of sports media, the video will be the lead on every national, state & local news outlet from Pismo to Poughkeepsie.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Notice Buzbee's timing. He waited until the Watson case fell off the news cycle before making a statement about this case. Could it be part 1 of a continuing story or is he just bluffing, hoping for some sort of out of court settlement for him and his client?

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Even if a video comes out the general public won’t care about a Vegas “party promoter” (aka pimp/drug dealer) getting jumped.

Not saying it’s right but this isn’t a male beating a female that gets a huge public reaction.

 

[Chaka]

Even if a video comes out the general public won’t care about a Vegas “party promoter” (aka pimp/drug dealer) getting jumped.

Not saying it’s right but this isn’t a male beating a female that gets a huge public reaction.

They won't remember a single detail about the victim. The lead is: NFL STAR VICIOUSLY BEATS UNCONSCIOUS PERSON, that is the only thing people will remember.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The knowing hasn't gone viral outside of sports media, the video will be the lead on every national, state & local news outlet from Pismo to Poughkeepsie.

The video that hasn't surfaced in 6 months? That video?

Yeah, I'mma scratch Kamara off my draft board based on the nothing Buzbee has to share with the world.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

They won't remember a single detail about the victim. The lead is: NFL STAR VICIOUSLY BEATS UNCONSCIOUS PERSON, that is the only thing people will remember.

You're acting like this news hasn't already broken.

It was very detailed at the time. Many of us discussed it here. And again: the general public digested the details, along with stills, and collectively moved on from it in about 2 days.

No one cares.

And at present, and for the foreseeable future, there is no video. So there are 20 posts about a complete nothingburger. Man I hope I can draft Kamara in the 3rd after my 2 WRs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not saying it’s right but this isn’t a male beating a female that gets a huge public reaction.

That's key, IMO

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

hoping for some sort of out of court settlement for him and his client?

We have a BINGO

 

[TheWinz]

Pismo to Poughkeepsie

I had to look up Pismo

 

[Chaka]

Pismo to Poughkeepsie

I had to look up Pismo

It's easy to miss if you take a wrong turn in Albuquerque.

 

[Chaka]

The knowing hasn't gone viral outside of sports media, the video will be the lead on every national, state & local news outlet from Pismo to Poughkeepsie.

The video that hasn't surfaced in 6 months? That video?

Yeah, I'mma scratch Kamara off my draft board based on the nothing Buzbee has to share with the world.

Yes, that video. Having not surfaced hardly means it won't ever surface. Maybe that happens after the season, maybe not. But it's out there and Buzbee is busting his ### trying to get it, as I am sure outlets like TMZ are as well.

No one is saying scratch him off your board entirely but when looking at Kamara and guys behind him like Saquon, Chubb, Deebo, CeeDee or *GASP* Josh Allen (OH NOES NOTZ A CARTARBAKZ!!!) all of whom could finish as top 3 at their position, maybe err on the side of guys who didn't viciously beat an unconscious person?

 

[Chaka]

They won't remember a single detail about the victim. The lead is: NFL STAR VICIOUSLY BEATS UNCONSCIOUS PERSON, that is the only thing people will remember.

You're acting like this news hasn't already broken.

It was very detailed at the time. Many of us discussed it here. And again: the general public digested the details, along with stills, and collectively moved on from it in about 2 days.

No one cares.

And at present, and for the foreseeable future, there is no video. So there are 20 posts about a complete nothingburger. Man I hope I can draft Kamara in the 3rd after my 2 WRs.

The news from six months ago this didn't break contain from sports media and you know it. Maybe it got as far as the post third commercial break blurbs right before the video of the squirrel on water skis

Outside the sports world It was below the fold news at best.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

They won't remember a single detail about the victim. The lead is: NFL STAR VICIOUSLY BEATS UNCONSCIOUS PERSON, that is the only thing people will remember.

You're acting like this news hasn't already broken.

It was very detailed at the time. Many of us discussed it here. And again: the general public digested the details, along with stills, and collectively moved on from it in about 2 days.

No one cares.

And at present, and for the foreseeable future, there is no video. So there are 20 posts about a complete nothingburger. Man I hope I can draft Kamara in the 3rd after my 2 WRs.

The news from six months ago this didn't break contain from sports media and you know it. Maybe it got as far as the post third commercial break blurbs right before the video of the squirrel on water skis

Outside the sports world It was below the fold news at best.

Bro… It was headline news on CNN and dominated the first page of Rotoworld, espn.com, and just about every other sports and news publication. it was a BFD when it first came out. It also faded in a matter of days.

No, women were involved, it would’ve been a much bigger deal and lasted much longer in the spotlight.

 

[Chaka]

Not saying it’s right but this isn’t a male beating a female that gets a huge public reaction.

That's key, IMO

Depends on how severe the beating was. If it's blurry and unclear it's one thing, if it's clear video of a full on Henry Hill beat down that's something else entirely.

 

[Chaka]

hoping for some sort of out of court settlement for him and his client?

We have a BINGO

Lawyer guys may know better but I'm pretty sure if there is video; the decision whether or not to pursue criminal charges is entirely up to the police and the victim cannot withdraw the charges. At this point, the only settlement would be a plea by Kamara.

 

[LawFitz]

Not saying it’s right but this isn’t a male beating a female that gets a huge public reaction.

That's key, IMO

Depends on how severe the beating was. If it's blurry and unclear it's one thing, if it's clear video of a full on Henry Hill beat down that's something else entirely.

This. Right here. Until we see the video ourselves, it's way premature to confidently claim that it would be a nothingburger.

 

[Chaka]

They won't remember a single detail about the victim. The lead is: NFL STAR VICIOUSLY BEATS UNCONSCIOUS PERSON, that is the only thing people will remember.

You're acting like this news hasn't already broken.

It was very detailed at the time. Many of us discussed it here. And again: the general public digested the details, along with stills, and collectively moved on from it in about 2 days.

No one cares.

And at present, and for the foreseeable future, there is no video. So there are 20 posts about a complete nothingburger. Man I hope I can draft Kamara in the 3rd after my 2 WRs.

The news from six months ago this didn't break contain from sports media and you know it. Maybe it got as far as the post third commercial break blurbs right before the video of the squirrel on water skis

Outside the sports world It was below the fold news at best.

Bro… It was headline news on CNN and dominated the first page of Rotoworld, espn.com, and just about every other sports and news publication. it was a BFD when it first came out. It also faded in a matter of days.

No, women were involved, it would’ve been a much bigger deal and lasted much longer in the spotlight.

It was a headline on CNN Sports

Did Wolf Blitzer make it a headline on the Situation Room?

 

[LawFitz]

^^^ That said, I'm not suggesting writing Kamara off your boards. I'm certainly not doing so. But I will be tracking this situation closely up until the very start of my drafts, and will discount accordingly.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Did Wolf Blitzer make it a headline on the Situation Room?

Is that the threshold for relevance?

Did Wolf Blitzer spend 30 minutes on the Deshaun Watson situation?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This. Right here. Until we see the video ourselves, it's way premature to confidently claim that it would be a nothingburger.

But until a video is made public, it absolutely is a nothing burger. Literally and figuratively. that was my point.