Doug B
Footballguy
I'm just starting to research this a bit, and have to leave that research unfinished for now. Meanwhile, here's some quick reading to at least give recent background of Goodell's use of the Exempt List.
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RB Alvin Kamara, NO (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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I'm just starting to research this a bit, and have to leave that research unfinished for now. Meanwhile, here's some quick reading to at least give recent background of Goodell's use of the Exempt List.
Doug B
Footballguy
Done some more reading, and two things seem apparent -- neither of which gives us perfectly clear picture:
1) Roger Goodell, on paper, still has essentially "God" powers over the Exempt List. However ...
2) ... he has been much more hesitant to use it over the last few seasons than he was in 2014-17.
2017 was the year Ezekiel Elliot sued the league to stay a six-game suspension for multiple allegations of domestic abuse. Elliot and the NFLPA fought the league on several legal levels and staved off the suspension for the first nine weeks of the season. Elliot eventually accepted his suspension in November when the U.S. Court of Appeals upheld the league's position. Elliot sat out weeks 10-15 that 2017 season.
So what does this have to do with Kamara in 2022? OK, here I have to resort to spitballing a bit: It appears that Goodell is applying the Exempt List designation much less often and more judiciously in recent years -- most notably in declining to apply it to Antonio Brown in 2019 and to Deshaun Watson in 2021. I believe the 2017 Elliot lawsuit -- though ultimately won by the league -- has led to Goodell (and the owners whose interests he represents) to think more about the PR hit the league takes when wrangling publicly with players over suspensions. The fallback position seems to be now to "let the legal process play out" -- so long as there's nothing released publicly (like a compelling video or firearm-related charges) that embarrasses the league, rattles sponsors, and forces a response.
For all the attention Kamara's case gets on this board and on Saintsreport ... this case has not transcended the NFL news cycle. It's not gotten out into the mainstream news cycle and has thus remained low-profile enough to not hurt the league's PR. Therefore, no preemptive league action six months past the incident, and IMHO a low risk of an Exempt List application this season.
Yenrub
Footballguy
Speculation is he will not be suspended until the 2023 season
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/news/366060/alvin-kamara-suspension-more-likely-to-occur-2023.php
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/news/366060/alvin-kamara-suspension-more-likely-to-occur-2023.php
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
That's when his salary skyrockets
Deamon
Footballguy
So just how high is his ADP going to skyrocket before September? Mid 2nd?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
In redraft he should be safe enough for this year. But keeper/dynasty might be a little dicey. He'll be 28 next year with a very possible suspension and 29 the next season where he has a shot at a full slate of games.
Deamon
Footballguy
Getting safer by the day. Obviously still some risk, but he's going to start flying up draft boards by the end of August when most people draft. Wish I drafted today and could snag him mid/late 2nd. Likely will be up to early/mid 2nd come September.
nittanylion
Footballguy
It's not the suspension I'm worried about; it's the Commissioner's Exempt List. There doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason regarding the 'when and why' involved with that list, and the Commissioner's ability to use it. I was shocked to learn that the Commissioner could have heard and ruled on the NFL appeal in the Watson case. Even though he turned it over to a biased arbitrator that will likely give the NFL exactly the ruling they want, at least he must have realized the optics of the League being able to decide the outcome of it's own appeal...as if this wasn't bad enough, the Commissioner appears to be able to have carte blanche with the Exempt List, and can use it however and whenever he sees fit. The hotel/casino(?) where the Kamara incident occured, and the police, both apparently have video that clearly identifies who was involved and who did what in that incident. It's been six months, which is an incredibly long time for that video not to have been leaked, but these days, who doubts that it will be, and likely sooner than later? The minute that video hits the mainstream media, the exempt list might be the least of Kamara's worries legally, but for an FF Roster, it's potentially crippling to lose a 2nd-3rd RB more than capable of generating statistics that hit/exceed his ADP. He's on that list the second that video becomes public, IMHO. Way too risky for me in redraft at this point.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hard to believe Watson has his suspension doubled from 6 to 11 games and Kamara enjoys the entire 2022 NFL season and won't face a suspension, why?
It's hard to rank Kamara if he isn't going to be suspended. He's a Top 5 Super Back at times, if he slides into the Mid-Late 2nd, that's almost stealing.
It's hard to rank Kamara if he isn't going to be suspended. He's a Top 5 Super Back at times, if he slides into the Mid-Late 2nd, that's almost stealing.
I would assume because Watson settled, whereas Kamara is still an outstanding case. Likewise, Watson is likely done with punishment now, where Kamara could face a 2023 suspension.
ETA: If Kamara is in the clear for 2022, he's my RB6.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So historically, Goodell’s policy has been to let the criminal Justice system run its course, and then impose any league-oriented discipline after the league investigates.
From what I’ve been reading, kamara’s legal team managed a 60-day delay. The consensus opinion seems to be that Kamara is likely to receive a 6 game suspension, but that it is unlikely to be implemented until 2023.
Goodell has digression to prevent Kamara from playing, but isn’t likely to do so. It would be punishing the Saints, as there’s not much time between now and the season.
Most analysts I’ve followed on this believe a suspension will be handed down in 2023.
But there’s always a chance. The video could surface, or Kamara could reach a settlement.
In the case of a settlement, the league may simply decide “no criminal case, no suspension”. That’s not what happened with Watson, but they’re very different circumstances, obviously.
Or with a settlement, the league could initiate their investigation - which could take a couple months.
Add it all up and it sounds likely that Kamara will play all of 2022. But no guarantee.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’s already mid-2nd.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
If his suspension is delayed until 2023 and if your moral compass allows you to draft him(the police report ain't good) then you gotta start looking at him as soon as 2-3 RBs are off the board.
This is going to be a wildcard and will tip some teams in one direction or the other. Doubt he clears the 1st round or the 1-2 turn if the story holds up.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don't love what he did, but I don't put it in the "moral compass" territory of say, Watson.
He might have been in a fight. He might have hit someone after they were already down.
But his penis wasn't out, so...
massraider
Footballguy
If his penis was out when he jumped on that guy, my moral compass won't let me draft himBut his penis wasn't out, so...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We all have to draw a line in the sand.If his penis was out when he jumped on that guy, my moral compass won't let me draft himBut his penis wasn't out, so...
It's the stick we use to do it that matters.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Here's hoping no suspension - I just drafted him 2.06 in an NFC Champions league. The 3rd round flip continues to vex me, and I hate picking 7th. I drew 12th, apparently so I got the worst pick.
Some strange things happen in those leagues.
Pittman 2.08. Wow.
ARob 3.08. Wow again.
Gabe Davis 4.11 - not really a reach since that's where he's been going (he went in the 3rd in my last one)
Isiah Pacheco - is an 9th round pick. As the dude's RB3.
Pierce is going in the 8th, (8.01) so if ya want him, there he is.
Waller went after Hock (6.10 ~> 6.11).
Anyway, Ingram is a very cheap handcuff, and is capable of filling in nicely if AK is suspended/injured. One of the things I like about AK is the cheap handcuff.
Some strange things happen in those leagues.
Pittman 2.08. Wow.
ARob 3.08. Wow again.
Gabe Davis 4.11 - not really a reach since that's where he's been going (he went in the 3rd in my last one)
Isiah Pacheco - is an 9th round pick. As the dude's RB3.
Pierce is going in the 8th, (8.01) so if ya want him, there he is.
Waller went after Hock (6.10 ~> 6.11).
Anyway, Ingram is a very cheap handcuff, and is capable of filling in nicely if AK is suspended/injured. One of the things I like about AK is the cheap handcuff.
jm192
Footballguy
Feels like the closer we get to the season, the less likely it is that he is suspended. 2nd round is going to be a steal if no suspension, and you'll be slightly annoyed if he winds up suspended. I think it's a great pick.
I thought Robinson would be discounted more after such a disastrous season. People loving the location.
Pacheco is on the Darwin Thompson hype train. He may prove to be better. But this is exactly how Thompson went. He'll be going 7th round in 2 weeks.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya he was showing on FBG ADP as 3.03 just 2 days ago but their last update gave him a major boost.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I still think there’s a sizable profit to be realized at that mid-2nd price.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
100%
He's finished no worse than RB8 in any of his seasons, and he's the focal point of what should be an improving Saints offense. With MT back, and improved receiver corps, that should open things up for him even more. His only competition is a 87 year old Mark Ingram, who makes a cheap handcuff. His team runs a ton, and he's on the field in virtually every RZ possession.
AK going mid 2nd, after Barkley, Cook, Swift, JaWill, AJones, and Derrick Henry, and I like him more than any of those guys. They all have their warts - Barkley on a bad team with injury history, Cook misses time ever year, Swift misses time & has RBBC to deal with, JaWill & AJones also RBBC.
Barring injury to a teammate, AK has the most upside of that bunch, IMO.
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
In his 6 full games with Winston last year, Kamara averaged over 20 points per game PPR. The starting O-line missed 32 starts last year. The last 11 games the Saints used a series of noodle armed QB's. They did not have any decent receivers last year. Payton is gone but the OC has been with the Saints since Brees came to town. No one is pushing for a resolution to Kamara's criminal case until after the season. I think Kamara should be drafted as the 9th or 10th player off the board in full PPR leagues.
Deamon
Footballguy
If it means you're getting a stud WR in round 1 then heck yes.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At 1.07 I got Adams and followed it with Kamara. And I had Kamara ranked higher than any of the running backs between 1.08 and 2.06
If going “hero running back“, one could do a hell of a lot worse than Alvin Kamara in the second round.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya I mean Hero RB usually has the RB in round 1 but you could def make a case for Kamara there too. You took Adams over one of Jefferson/Chase/Kupp?
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I am equally worried about his track record of missed games as I am his suspension. I'm more worried about his drop in ypc than I am his suspension. I am most worried about his drop in targets.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I see hero as taking the running back and round one or two, but hey, definitions change…
No, I took Adam‘s after Cooper Kuppp, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and Stefon Diggs were all off the board. I was hoping to get Diggs there, but he went one picked before me.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Looking at 2021 will do you a disservice. As another user posted above, there were a ton of extenuating circumstances last year.
Deamon
Footballguy
Woah, what? Diggs went top 6? So one of Ekeler/CMC/Taylor dropped all the way to 1.08 in a PPR?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Eke did. And I’m wary of Eke this year. It’s the one dude I passed on that I might regret. I don’t see his TDs as sustainable, and he stayed remarkably healthy last year.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya, fair enough. I'm just shocked THAT many people passed on him. A 1.03 ADP guy going 1.08 is extremely rare unless there was some big news out.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same - I hovered over his name for 10 seconds. I didn’t expect to see him there. Was sure I’d get Diggs. That’s how my luck rolls sometimes.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya sometimes people get too caught up in the "if he's falling there must be a reason why!".
I really hope it works out for you, just surprised you took the 1.12 ADP guy over the 1.03 ADP guy when you were up at 1.07. The guy at 8 take him at least??? haha
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep.
For me it was about my draft strategy. I’ve watched an awful lot of the NFC league drafts, and felt I’d get best value out of WR1 -> RB -> WR.
I really like my team, and I like the build more for going Adams them AK, then I would have going Eke then Deebo Samuel or Tyreek.
1.07 is especially difficult in that there are so many picks on both sides of your pick every single time. There was no guarantee that Debo would have made it back to me, so I went for the Alpha wide receiver when I had the chance.
Especially tricky since there is a third round flip. DJ Moore made it back to me in the third,
Deamon
Footballguy
Can you post your whole draft? Or link to it?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Combined with a rooster pic this would really be awesome.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not exactly the right topic for it, but I can send it to you by DM. I didn’t expect my anecdotal comment about being a mid-2nd bargain to launch a whole discussion.
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Deamon
Footballguy
Ya send it im curious to see!Not exactly the right topic for it, but I can send it to you by DM. I didn’t expect my anecdotal comment about being a mid-2nd bargain to launch a whole discussion.
Kevrunner
Footballguy
Tony Buzbee Calls for NFL to Take 'Immediate Action' Against Saints' Alvin Kamara.
Buzbee Representing Violent Attack Victim
Drafting Kamara seems to be so risky now that Buzbee is involved.
Buzbee Representing Violent Attack Victim
Drafting Kamara seems to be so risky now that Buzbee is involved.
Deamon
Footballguy
Article seems to mention that a similar timeline to what Buzbee did with Watson, would still push this to 2023.
Kevrunner
Footballguy
Buzbee is requesting “immediate“ action and that he will make his client available to the NFL right away. This development is something that was not expected, I had thought this would be a non issue until after the season, but Buzbee is not waiting until the next court date.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Buzbee has no authority over the NFL. They don’t have to act because he said so.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
@DrewDavenportFF
This doesn’t move the meter much for me yet. Calling on the NFL to take action doesn’t mean it happens. Let’s see what develops in the way of publicity and leaked information and then adjust if necessary. For now, let it breathe. #FFLegalUpdate
Quote Tweet
@ProFootballTalk
Tony Buzbee to represent victim of alleged assault involving Alvin Kamara. A civil lawsuit is being prepared, and Buzbee calls on league to "take immediate action." https://wp.me/pbBqYq-clkT
nittanylion
Footballguy
Tony Buzbee is a glorified ambulance chaser. Nothing more, nothing less, IMHO.
I'm still too worried about Goodell's ability to employ the Exempt List with no oversight, to draft Kamara anywhere close to ADP.
I'm still too worried about Goodell's ability to employ the Exempt List with no oversight, to draft Kamara anywhere close to ADP.
Chaka
Footballguy
Nope but the NFL hates nothing more than bad PR.
I still think they comfortably stand behind their policy of waiting until any criminal proceedings conclude. But if the video that apparently exists ever gets leaked the exempt list absolutely comes into play.
