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RB Ashton Jeanty, LV (2 Viewers)

Ilov80s said:
So funny how things change even though really nothing changed
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Didn’t watch either preseason game and I have a draft Monday. Don’t need to know. It might behoove me to check out Henderson, but I’m pretty sure where the 1.01 goes. It was sort of a diversification/experimental league but I let preseason get me to take Najee over Chase so that I could diversify and experiment and I haven’t recovered from that and trading a first for Trey Sermon. Just awful. Don’t let preseason or three games of hype ruin your dynasty team.
 
I don’t want them playing this kid in anymore games please 🙏

He’s obviously a special talent, he looked incredible in college and looks just as good in preseason, just unleash him in the regular season please, there’s nothing that will sway my mind on this kid
 
I understand the call for bubble wrap...but I appreciate Carroll keeping him out there too.

Letting him bounce back from that nasty shot and then dish it out and find the end zone was a great building block for what everyone wants from him.
 
KellysHeroes said:
Pip's Invitation said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
KellysHeroes said:
Went 2.02 last night
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That’s still late.

Sadly 9/12 of my home league live in the Bay Area, and 5/12 are Raiders fans. One of the Niners fans lives in Vegas & has his ear to the ground.

No way Jeanty makes it out of the 1st in my home league. Maybe not even past 10.
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He went at 10 in my redraft on Thursday.
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Yeah, im not taking a Rookie at 10 unless their name was Peterson
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I might take Jeanty at 10. Depends what else is there.

If Jeanty is the last of the Saquan, Gibbs, Bijan, Henry group, that probably means there are at least 5 WR with similar tiers for me in the 2nd.

I could definitely see going Jeanty 1.10 in that circumstance.
 
FantasyGuru24 said:
TapRackBang said:
For every Emmitt Smith, there's a dozen Reggie Bushes.
Try to keep it all in perspective.

If you draft him in the top 10 and he doesn't produce, you're in a real pickle.

Everybody else in the top 10 rankings is there because they've already proven themselves.
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That’s true for any player you draft in the Top 10 that busts .. They’re all risky. You don’t win your league with your first pick, but you can definitely lose it.
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This is a myth. We should stop saying it. I'm too lazy to find the thread where it was discussed a month ago but you win or lose based mostly on having one of the 3-5 guys who truly matter each year and most of those guys come in the first round.
 
KellysHeroes said:
Pip's Invitation said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
KellysHeroes said:
Went 2.02 last night
Click to expand...
That’s still late.

Sadly 9/12 of my home league live in the Bay Area, and 5/12 are Raiders fans. One of the Niners fans lives in Vegas & has his ear to the ground.

No way Jeanty makes it out of the 1st in my home league. Maybe not even past 10.
Click to expand...
He went at 10 in my redraft on Thursday.
Click to expand...
Yeah, im not taking a Rookie at 10 unless their name was Peterson
Click to expand...
What about at 5?
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
KellysHeroes said:
Pip's Invitation said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
KellysHeroes said:
Went 2.02 last night
Click to expand...
That’s still late.

Sadly 9/12 of my home league live in the Bay Area, and 5/12 are Raiders fans. One of the Niners fans lives in Vegas & has his ear to the ground.

No way Jeanty makes it out of the 1st in my home league. Maybe not even past 10.
Click to expand...
He went at 10 in my redraft on Thursday.
Click to expand...
Yeah, im not taking a Rookie at 10 unless their name was Peterson
Click to expand...
I might take Jeanty at 10. Depends what else is there.

If Jeanty is the last of the Saquan, Gibbs, Bijan, Henry group, that probably means there are at least 5 WR with similar tiers for me in the 2nd.

I could definitely see going Jeanty 1.10 in that circumstance.
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I thought about taking Jeanty at 8 but took Henry instead. The guy who took Jeanty at 10 wanted Henry.
 
Pip's Invitation said:
I thought about taking Jeanty at 8 but took Henry instead. The guy who took Jeanty at 10 wanted Henry.
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I’ve thought about those two a lot. I can’t say who I’d take until I was on the clock.

If it comes down to that choice at 10 (if I’m drafting 10 - won’t know until the draft) it’ll be a huge gut check.

Jeanty: ceiling as high as any RB, Raiders likely better than we think with Geno/new regime, likely to be a run heavy scheme, not a zero in the passing game (so PPR matters)

Henry - in a top 4 offense, capable of monster points, but much of a receiving back (19 receptions) and aged 31

I might just take Jeanty > Henry.
 
If Geno doesn't get much better in the redzone he is going to crush Jeanty's GL value.

In redraft this loses him 50-50 decisions for me.

That said, the Bijan comp is interesting. 8 is sure better than 3.
 
Largent said:
I'm picking 8....it's Jeanty unless CMC is there.

Bijan in his rookie year was going anywhere as high as 3.....with Arthur Smith and Tyler A there. Jeanty has the talent plus ideal situation.
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Yeah I have #9 in a redraft and will take him if he's on the board. I love Henry but Jeanty is going to be a key cog to the Raiders passing game. He's going to get a ton of usage.
 
I got him at 2.01 in my shark pool home league but this was when his value had yet to recover from that first preseason performance. I'm sure he's going mid- to late- first round now, but I'd still prioritize Derrick Henry over Jeanty if possible. Yes Henry is older and doesn't catch many passes, but is in a much better offense and he just feels a lot safer to me. You know what Henry is going to give you every week - Jeanty still needs to prove that he deserves to be in the discussion.
 
Instinctive said:
FantasyGuru24 said:
TapRackBang said:
For every Emmitt Smith, there's a dozen Reggie Bushes.
Try to keep it all in perspective.

If you draft him in the top 10 and he doesn't produce, you're in a real pickle.

Everybody else in the top 10 rankings is there because they've already proven themselves.
Click to expand...

That’s true for any player you draft in the Top 10 that busts .. They’re all risky. You don’t win your league with your first pick, but you can definitely lose it.
Click to expand...
This is a myth. We should stop saying it. I'm too lazy to find the thread where it was discussed a month ago but you win or lose based mostly on having one of the 3-5 guys who truly matter each year and most of those guys come in the first round.
Click to expand...

Completely agree. It's #1 on my "fantasy phrases we should retire immediately" list.

But the extra strange thing here is even if someone adheres to that saying it should make someone like Jeanty MORE attractive, not less.

It's been almost two decades since the last time a RB drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft failed to put up a top 10 fantasy RB season as a rookie.

If high floor is someone's goal with their 1st round pick, rookies picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft are as safe as it gets in the modern NFL.
 
Looks like overreaction has swung the other way now. I was surprised Jeanty went that high in the NFL draft. I heard the rumors he was going top-10, but thought it was just smoke. Maybe the Raiders think they're legit contenders. The pick makes more sense if that's the case.

I don't see a special talent, but could Jeanty be a good FF RB? Sure. The good news is he's going to get a lot of touches and that's half the battle in FF. The bad news is the Raiders offense has a wide range of outcomes. They need to be pretty good if Jeanty is going to reach the lofty expectations his owners have.
 
Harjiran said:
I got him at 2.01 in my shark pool home league but this was when his value had yet to recover from that first preseason performance. I'm sure he's going mid- to late- first round now, but I'd still prioritize Derrick Henry over Jeanty if possible. Yes Henry is older and doesn't catch many passes, but is in a much better offense and he just feels a lot safer to me. You know what Henry is going to give you every week - Jeanty still needs to prove that he deserves to be in the discussion.
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I feel like a little added risk with Henry is if the Ravens get way ahead he’s gonna be on the bench in bubble wrap while Hill & Mitchell salt away the game.

The Ravens are one of those teams that is capable of scoring 4-5 times and has a defense that can play lights out. They know they’re trying to win a championship, & might be more willing to to rest Henry with a lead.

That said, it’s certainly possible Henry can do more with less, but there might be some workload limitations.

Just food for thought on the Jeanty vs Henry decision.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Harjiran said:
I got him at 2.01 in my shark pool home league but this was when his value had yet to recover from that first preseason performance. I'm sure he's going mid- to late- first round now, but I'd still prioritize Derrick Henry over Jeanty if possible. Yes Henry is older and doesn't catch many passes, but is in a much better offense and he just feels a lot safer to me. You know what Henry is going to give you every week - Jeanty still needs to prove that he deserves to be in the discussion.
Click to expand...
I feel like a little added risk with Henry is if the Ravens get way ahead he’s gonna be on the bench in bubble wrap while Hill & Mitchell salt away the game.

The Ravens are one of those teams that is capable of scoring 4-5 times and has a defense that can play lights out. They know they’re trying to win a championship, & might be more willing to to rest Henry with a lead.

That said, it’s certainly possible Henry can do more with less, but there might be some workload limitations.

Just food for thought on the Jeanty vs Henry decision.
Click to expand...
Generally teams won't rest players, even in a blowout, until mid-fourth quarter-ish. If a team gets ahead by enough to rest starters at that point then the starters probably already had a great day.
 
Chaka said:
Generally teams won't rest players, even in a blowout, until mid-fourth quarter-ish. If a team gets ahead by enough to rest starters at that point then the starters probably already had a great day.
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Generally teams don’t have a 31 year old RB.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Chaka said:
Generally teams won't rest players, even in a blowout, until mid-fourth quarter-ish. If a team gets ahead by enough to rest starters at that point then the starters probably already had a great day.
Click to expand...
Generally teams don’t have a 31 year old RB.
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How many points ahead and what time would you expect them to rest Henry?

10 point lead, When do they rest him?
17 point lead ?
24 point lead?
31 point lead?

How well do you think Henry will be performing if they have those leads?

Just saying I wouldn't discount his draft stock too much based on that possibility.
 
Chaka said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Chaka said:
Generally teams won't rest players, even in a blowout, until mid-fourth quarter-ish. If a team gets ahead by enough to rest starters at that point then the starters probably already had a great day.
Click to expand...
Generally teams don’t have a 31 year old RB.
Click to expand...
How many points ahead and what time would you expect them to rest Henry?

10 point lead, When do they rest him?
17 point lead ?
24 point lead?
31 point lead?

How well do you think Henry will be performing if they have those leads?

Just saying I wouldn't discount his draft stock too much based on that possibility.
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Oh I said as much - that if they’re that much ahead, he’s probably already gotten his. But I could imagine some games where LJax throws a couple & runs for one, and Henry finishes with a 15/93/0 line with no receptions.

To the question above, I’d say 17-20 point lead? But it depends on how competent the opponent’s offense is looking. All guesswork here, but I do think BAL has a higher chance of
1. Getting way ahead of opponents (they play the browns twice, after all)
And
2. Resting their very old RB to minimize his workload, since again, they’re trying to win it all and Henry would be an integral part of any playoff run.

Not saying it’s the only factor - it’s just a factor.
 
Last edited:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Chaka said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Chaka said:
Generally teams won't rest players, even in a blowout, until mid-fourth quarter-ish. If a team gets ahead by enough to rest starters at that point then the starters probably already had a great day.
Click to expand...
Generally teams don’t have a 31 year old RB.
Click to expand...
How many points ahead and what time would you expect them to rest Henry?

10 point lead, When do they rest him?
17 point lead ?
24 point lead?
31 point lead?

How well do you think Henry will be performing if they have those leads?

Just saying I wouldn't discount his draft stock too much based on that possibility.
Click to expand...
Oh I said as much - that if they’re that much ahead, he’s probably already gotten his. But I could imagine some games where LJax throws a couple & runs for one, and Henry finishes with a 15/93/0 like with no receptions.

To the question above, I’d say 17-20 point lead? But it depends on how competent the opponent’s offense is looking. All guesswork here, but I do think BAL has a higher chance of
1. Getting way ahead of opponents (they play the browns twice, after all)
And
2. Resting their very old RB to minimize his workload, since again, they’re trying to win it all and Henry would be an integral part of any playoff run.

Not saying it’s the only factor - it’s just a factor.
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Such a weirdly specific factor to worry about.
 
smbkrypt24 said:
Such a weirdly specific factor to worry about.
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I never said I was worried about it. I said if I’m choosing between players it’s a factor. In fact I said it’s “a little added risk”

Little = not big. How are you getting “worried” from that?

I don’t see anything weird about it at all. He’s a 31 year old RB who could be rested more than a younger RB might be if his team gets ahead.

It seems weird to me to not consider things like that when evaluating 1st round picks in redraft.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
smbkrypt24 said:
Such a weirdly specific factor to worry about.
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I never said I was worried about it. I said if I’m choosing between players it’s a factor. In fact I said it’s “a little added risk”

Little = not big. How are you getting “worried” from that?

I don’t see anything weird about it at all. He’s a 31 year old RB who could be rested more than a younger RB might be if his team gets ahead.

It seems weird to me to not consider things like that when evaluating 1st round picks in redraft.
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I suppose that means just putting one side of those “little” factors” on the table.

Other side is:
Poor offense
Unknown asset
Mid o line at best

So to point out d Henry may rest in games that may be blow outs….that maybe he didn’t partake in the scoring seems like such an odd way to knock him.
 
I don't know, this may be over-simplification, but I think the only item to be worried about with Jeanty is volume. Teams have gotten wiser with rookie usage in recent years, not burning them out too fast too soon. If this case bucks that trend, and there appears reason to believe it will, then the minutia being tossed around here is inconsequential.

Does anyone have any info that may steer that variable one way or another? I've been under a fantasy rock since May and am just now starting to get back up to speed.
 
smbkrypt24 said:
I suppose that means just putting one side of those “little” factors” on the table.

Other side is:
Poor offense
Unknown asset
Mid o line at best

So to point out d Henry may rest in games that may be blow outs….that maybe he didn’t partake in the scoring seems like such an odd way to knock him.
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Sure, but do we know those things for a fact?

Geno is a pretty good quarterback, and the Raiders coaching is certainly a competent staff.

Do we know for sure that Jeanty is in a poor offense?

I’m not “knocking” Henry at all. Not in the slightest. I merely pointed out a factor. there are many factors that go into evaluating players. I try to look at all of them. You keep putting words in my mouth. Is it a reading comprehension issue? Seems like it.
 
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