RB Ashton Jeanty, LV (4 Viewers)

[JohnnyU]

Instafade

I wouldn’t say that after a preseason game, but I had a gnawing feeling in my stomach long before this game. One’s gut feeling isn’t worth much. I hope he’s a stud.

 

[Proteus]

I love how guys rationalize "but he was mobbed by 3 tacklers behind the line" as something that just resolves itself.

In the end it doesn't matter whose fault it is. Bad line play, cautious coaches, birdbrained OC...

...I remember being VERY frustrated with Bijan in his rookie year and it wasn't his fault either.

 

[Grahamburn]

I love how guys rationalize "but he was mobbed by 3 tacklers behind the line" as something that just resolves itself.

In the end it doesn't matter whose fault it is. Bad line play, cautious coaches, birdbrained OC...

...I remember being VERY frustrated with Bijan in his rookie year and it wasn't his fault either.

#1 a few years in a row … Maybe it’s ownership?

 

[Chaka]

Its kinda of common knowledge that when Jeanty went up against equal competition his stats were mid

You also sure about that, Clark?

 

[Chaka]

I love how guys rationalize "but he was mobbed by 3 tacklers behind the line" as something that just resolves itself.

In the end it doesn't matter whose fault it is. Bad line play, cautious coaches, birdbrained OC...

...I remember being VERY frustrated with Bijan in his rookie year and it wasn't his fault either.

Did anyone say that about last night?

It was three snaps in the preseason game one. It couldn't be less relevant.

Bijan was frustrating, the again Coach Pete isn't Arthur Smith.

What's your issue with Chip Kelly?

 

[Chaka]

This thread has a case of the vapors.

 

[Proteus]

I know he'll be fine. The price is just promising too much for me. I want more than fine in round 1. Godspeed.

 

[Ilov80s]

Patience gentlemen. Go to the Jahmyr Gbbs thread in October of 2023 and look at how quickly some were throwing in the towel in on him. The kid has 104 receptions, 3190 yards and 31 TDs in his first two seasons.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Patience gentlemen. Go to the Jahmyr Gbbs thread in October of 2024 and look at how quickly some were throwing in the towel in on him. The kid has 104 receptions, 3190 yards and 31 TDs in his first two seasons.

In his first preseason game of 2023, Jahmyr Gibbs, the Detroit Lions' rookie running back, had a limited but impactful performance, tallying 37 yards on seven touches. This included 18 offensive snaps, showcasing his versatility. One notable play was a run where he lowered his shoulder for a first down, contributing to a field goal drive.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

The Raiders play calling was extremely vanilla on purpose. PC admitted they didn’t call anything extravagant.

Hell I think almost every single run was from the gun. That is not going to be the case game one. Not to mention Seattle was actually a lot of blitzes and different looks for preseason game one.

AJ is going to be just fine.

 

[darksideofoz]

The Raiders OL looked very Boise St. like tonight. Did Jeanty no favors.

I sure hope people buy into preseason and he falls.

RBs that need a hole to succeed don’t generally succeed in the NFL. You’ve gotta be able to make people miss to be a star RB. It’s a couple preseason carries but I expected more. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very high on Jeanty but I hope it was just jitters. I expect him to look much more explosive as time marches on.

This is extremely reductive, and you already qualified that it generally doesn't happen, but that's Emmit Smith.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Instafade

I wouldn’t say that after a preseason game, but I had a gnawing feeling in my stomach long before this game. One’s gut feeling isn’t worth much. I hope he’s a stud.

Yeah I share that, I wasn't being flippant

And thats not. do not draft, its more like, bottom of the 2nd/top of the 3rd to me, rather than Pick 8 or whatever. If he's there at that point I'll gamble on him but not a guy to reach on

 

[Smack Tripper]

I love how guys rationalize "but he was mobbed by 3 tacklers behind the line" as something that just resolves itself.

In the end it doesn't matter whose fault it is. Bad line play, cautious coaches, birdbrained OC...

...I remember being VERY frustrated with Bijan in his rookie year and it wasn't his fault either.

Did anyone say that about last night?

It was three snaps in the preseason game one. It couldn't be less relevant.

Bijan was frustrating, the again Coach Pete isn't Arthur Smith.

What's your issue with Chip Kelly?

Where do you rate him vs lets say Josh Jacobs?

I love the idea of Jeanty, I think he has obvious gifts but there's obvious issues to me, starting with the division, six relatively tough games.

I think if Jeanty hit what Jacobs typically does we'd be very happy. But there is some pretty decent daylight between them on the board.

I don't see Geno going check down merchant here

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

The Raiders OL looked very Boise St. like tonight. Did Jeanty no favors.

I sure hope people buy into preseason and he falls.

RBs that need a hole to succeed don’t generally succeed in the NFL. You’ve gotta be able to make people miss to be a star RB. It’s a couple preseason carries but I expected more. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very high on Jeanty but I hope it was just jitters. I expect him to look much more explosive as time marches on.

This is extremely reductive, and you already qualified that it generally doesn't happen, but that's Emmit Smith.

Emmitt was not Barry but implying Emmitt did not make defenders miss or didn’t break tackles is pretty disrespectful to one of the best to ever do it. Did Emmitt play on great teams? Of course, but you might want to go back and watch some tape. Some of these highlights are

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[darksideofoz]

The Raiders OL looked very Boise St. like tonight. Did Jeanty no favors.

I sure hope people buy into preseason and he falls.

RBs that need a hole to succeed don’t generally succeed in the NFL. You’ve gotta be able to make people miss to be a star RB. It’s a couple preseason carries but I expected more. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very high on Jeanty but I hope it was just jitters. I expect him to look much more explosive as time marches on.

This is extremely reductive, and you already qualified that it generally doesn't happen, but that's Emmit Smith.

Emmitt was not Barry but implying Emmitt did not make defenders miss or didn’t break tackles is pretty disrespectful to one of the best to ever do it. Did Emmitt play on great teams? Of course, but you might want to go back and watch some tape. Some of these highlights are

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I attempted to qualify my thought as saying it was "extremely reductive" but that didn't work.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

The Raiders OL looked very Boise St. like tonight. Did Jeanty no favors.

I sure hope people buy into preseason and he falls.

RBs that need a hole to succeed don’t generally succeed in the NFL. You’ve gotta be able to make people miss to be a star RB. It’s a couple preseason carries but I expected more. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very high on Jeanty but I hope it was just jitters. I expect him to look much more explosive as time marches on.

This is extremely reductive, and you already qualified that it generally doesn't happen, but that's Emmit Smith.

Emmitt was not Barry but implying Emmitt did not make defenders miss or didn’t break tackles is pretty disrespectful to one of the best to ever do it. Did Emmitt play on great teams? Of course, but you might want to go back and watch some tape. Some of these highlights are

- YouTube

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I attempted to qualify my thought as saying it was "extremely reductive" but that didn't work.

Simplifying isn't qualifying. You said it's Emmitt, it's not. Not trying to get in a pissing match, but you'd be hard pressed to find even one example of someone who had long term success in the NFL by simply running through big holes.

I'll stand by what I said about Jeanty. Special players look special. He simply didn't. I don't care if it's 300 carries or 3. I want to see more from a RB taken so high. Do I still have high hopes? Of course. Am I hesitant to crown him based on gaudy college numbers and draft stock? Very much so.

 

[Chaka]

The Raiders OL looked very Boise St. like tonight. Did Jeanty no favors.

I sure hope people buy into preseason and he falls.

RBs that need a hole to succeed don’t generally succeed in the NFL. You’ve gotta be able to make people miss to be a star RB. It’s a couple preseason carries but I expected more. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very high on Jeanty but I hope it was just jitters. I expect him to look much more explosive as time marches on.

This is extremely reductive, and you already qualified that it generally doesn't happen, but that's Emmit Smith.

Emmitt was not Barry but implying Emmitt did not make defenders miss or didn’t break tackles is pretty disrespectful to one of the best to ever do it. Did Emmitt play on great teams? Of course, but you might want to go back and watch some tape. Some of these highlights are

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

m.youtube.com

I will always be Team Barry but Emmitt was amazing and would have been amazing on any team.

The thing that he and Barry have in common, and Jeanty too from what we have seen in college, is they have incredible contact balance. Like, uber, ultra, upper-tier, elite contact balance. It's one of the most important skills for a running back and it really cannot be taught.

 

[Payne]

I'm not overreacting, but watching him does reinforce my thoughts about going WR-WR from the 1.10 spot and hammering RB's after.

 

[Ilov80s]

The Raiders OL looked very Boise St. like tonight. Did Jeanty no favors.

I sure hope people buy into preseason and he falls.

RBs that need a hole to succeed don’t generally succeed in the NFL. You’ve gotta be able to make people miss to be a star RB. It’s a couple preseason carries but I expected more. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very high on Jeanty but I hope it was just jitters. I expect him to look much more explosive as time marches on.

This is extremely reductive, and you already qualified that it generally doesn't happen, but that's Emmit Smith.

Emmitt was not Barry but implying Emmitt did not make defenders miss or didn’t break tackles is pretty disrespectful to one of the best to ever do it. Did Emmitt play on great teams? Of course, but you might want to go back and watch some tape. Some of these highlights are

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

m.youtube.com

I will always be Team Barry but Emmitt was amazing and would have been amazing on any team.

The thing that he and Barry have in common, and Jeanty too from what we have seen in college, is they have incredible contact balance. Like, uber, ultra, upper-tier, elite contact balance. It's one of the most important skills for a running back and it really cannot be taught.

It's also no coincidence that

5'9" 216
5'8" 203
5'8" 211

They are physically built for balance

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

The Raiders OL looked very Boise St. like tonight. Did Jeanty no favors.

I sure hope people buy into preseason and he falls.

RBs that need a hole to succeed don’t generally succeed in the NFL. You’ve gotta be able to make people miss to be a star RB. It’s a couple preseason carries but I expected more. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very high on Jeanty but I hope it was just jitters. I expect him to look much more explosive as time marches on.

This is extremely reductive, and you already qualified that it generally doesn't happen, but that's Emmit Smith.

Emmitt was not Barry but implying Emmitt did not make defenders miss or didn’t break tackles is pretty disrespectful to one of the best to ever do it. Did Emmitt play on great teams? Of course, but you might want to go back and watch some tape. Some of these highlights are

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

m.youtube.com

I will always be Team Barry but Emmitt was amazing and would have been amazing on any team.

The thing that he and Barry have in common, and Jeanty too from what we have seen in college, is they have incredible contact balance. Like, uber, ultra, upper-tier, elite contact balance. It's one of the most important skills for a running back and it really cannot be taught.

It's also no coincidence that

5'9" 216
5'8" 203
5'8" 211

They are physically built for balance

Trent Richardson was 5'9" 228 and faster than all 3. He also played in the SEC (with a better line but better competition) and displayed great contact balance in college. As a prospect, TR was > AJ. For whatever reason, when TR got to the NFL, he turned into a plodder. Jeanty's spin move gave me shivers. Statistically, Richardson's rookie season was fine, but it was touchdown dependent and I didn't let what I was seeing override what I believed. The Browns fleeced the Colts for sure. I won't make the same mistake twice. Jeanty's cost is simply too high in redraft for a guy that never looked the same as Barkley or Bijan did in college. All I'm saying is that Jeanty looked slow in an extremely small sample size and it worried me a little. Maybe it was inexperienced driven indecision and will improve. I hope so. He needs to run into contact for his contact balance to matter. He is going to see defenders in his face every run at this level. He was one of my favorite NCAA players to watch last season. Every carry was a threat to get housed. I'm rooting for the kid, but I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Trent Richardson was 5'9" 228 and faster than all 3. He also played in the SEC (with a better line but better competition) and displayed great contact balance in college. As a prospect, TR was > AJ. For whatever reason, when TR got to the NFL, he turned into a plodder. Jeanty's spin move gave me shivers. Statistically, Richardson's rookie season was fine, but it was touchdown dependent and I didn't let what I was seeing override what I believed. The Browns fleeced the Colts for sure. I won't make the same mistake twice. Jeanty's cost is simply too high in redraft for a guy that never looked the same as Barkley or Bijan did in college. All I'm saying is that Jeanty looked slow in an extremely small sample size and it worried me a little. Maybe it was inexperienced driven indecision and will improve. I hope so. He needs to run into contact for his contact balance to matter. He is going to see defenders in his face every run at this level. He was one of my favorite NCAA players to watch last season. Every carry was a threat to get housed. I'm rooting for the kid, but I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

This is all fair but I think it's also fair to note that a 1st round RB doesn't have to be Saquon or Bijan to be a good fantasy option. Heck Najee Harris was a top 3 RB as a rookie and I don't think anyone is worried that AJ isn't as good of a prospect as Najee.

Overall 1st round RBs in the NFL draft are just about as bullet proof as things get in this game.

Going back from last year to Richardson, there have been 16 running backs drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. 14 of them eclipsed at least 1000 total yards as a rookie (only Penny and MG3 failed to do so). And many of them were top 5 fantasy RBs.

I didn't actually run the numbers but I would guess if you took the top 3 fantasy RBs of every year and looked at their finish the following year, their hit rate and boom rate wouldn't be any better than that of rookie 1st round RBs, most of whom had less pedigree/draft capital than Jeanty.

EDIT: Over that same period there have been seven RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft. All seven finished as top 10 fantasy running backs that year.

 

[iamkoza]

Trent Richardson was 5'9" 228 and faster than all 3. He also played in the SEC (with a better line but better competition) and displayed great contact balance in college. As a prospect, TR was > AJ. For whatever reason, when TR got to the NFL, he turned into a plodder. Jeanty's spin move gave me shivers. Statistically, Richardson's rookie season was fine, but it was touchdown dependent and I didn't let what I was seeing override what I believed. The Browns fleeced the Colts for sure. I won't make the same mistake twice. Jeanty's cost is simply too high in redraft for a guy that never looked the same as Barkley or Bijan did in college. All I'm saying is that Jeanty looked slow in an extremely small sample size and it worried me a little. Maybe it was inexperienced driven indecision and will improve. I hope so. He needs to run into contact for his contact balance to matter. He is going to see defenders in his face every run at this level. He was one of my favorite NCAA players to watch last season. Every carry was a threat to get housed. I'm rooting for the kid, but I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

This is all fair but I think it's also fair to note that a 1st round RB doesn't have to be Saquon or Bijan to be a good fantasy option. Heck Najee Harris was a top 3 RB as a rookie and I don't think anyone is worried that AJ isn't as good of a prospect as Najee.

Overall 1st round RBs in the NFL draft are just about as bullet proof as things get in this game.

Going back from last year to Richardson, there have been 16 running backs drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. 14 of them eclipsed at least 1000 total yards as a rookie (only Penny and MG3 failed to do so). And many of them were top 5 fantasy RBs.

I didn't actually run the numbers but I would guess if you took the top 3 fantasy RBs of every year and looked at their finish the following year, their hit rate and boom rate wouldn't be any better than that of rookie 1st round RBs, most of whom had less pedigree/draft capital than Jeanty.

EDIT: Over that same period there have been seven RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft. All seven finished as top 10 fantasy running backs that year.

i want my 1st round RB to have elite upside. Does Jeanty's talent overcome situation?
perhaps the bigger question right now for ppr leagues, is AJ going to be playing all 3 downs? need him to be a receiving threat if he has any chance of living up to ADP.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Trent Richardson was 5'9" 228 and faster than all 3. He also played in the SEC (with a better line but better competition) and displayed great contact balance in college. As a prospect, TR was > AJ. For whatever reason, when TR got to the NFL, he turned into a plodder. Jeanty's spin move gave me shivers. Statistically, Richardson's rookie season was fine, but it was touchdown dependent and I didn't let what I was seeing override what I believed. The Browns fleeced the Colts for sure. I won't make the same mistake twice. Jeanty's cost is simply too high in redraft for a guy that never looked the same as Barkley or Bijan did in college. All I'm saying is that Jeanty looked slow in an extremely small sample size and it worried me a little. Maybe it was inexperienced driven indecision and will improve. I hope so. He needs to run into contact for his contact balance to matter. He is going to see defenders in his face every run at this level. He was one of my favorite NCAA players to watch last season. Every carry was a threat to get housed. I'm rooting for the kid, but I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

This is all fair but I think it's also fair to note that a 1st round RB doesn't have to be Saquon or Bijan to be a good fantasy option. Heck Najee Harris was a top 3 RB as a rookie and I don't think anyone is worried that AJ isn't as good of a prospect as Najee.

Overall 1st round RBs in the NFL draft are just about as bullet proof as things get in this game.

Going back from last year to Richardson, there have been 16 running backs drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. 14 of them eclipsed at least 1000 total yards as a rookie (only Penny and MG3 failed to do so). And many of them were top 5 fantasy RBs.

I didn't actually run the numbers but I would guess if you took the top 3 fantasy RBs of every year and looked at their finish the following year, their hit rate and boom rate wouldn't be any better than that of rookie 1st round RBs, most of whom had less pedigree/draft capital than Jeanty.

EDIT: Over that same period there have been seven RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft. All seven finished as top 10 fantasy running backs that year.

It's crazy now to think Najee was being drafted over Chase in dynasty, but he was. His ADP also wasn't that far off from where Jeanty is going, so it's a good comp on your part. That said, Najee is a perfect example of being the perfect fit for a very good team. Is Jeanty in that type of situation?

Anyway, it's not that I really dislike Jeanty (comparing him to TR is tongue and cheek), it's that I hate the value you're getting selecting him in the 1st round. I guess if you want to swing for the fences with pick 1, he's as good as any in that spot.

 

[Peggy]

FBG has him as RB4. I'm not wasting a top 10 pick like a lot of people did on Bijan his first year.

 

[Ilov80s]

FBG has him as RB4. I'm not wasting a top 10 pick like a lot of people did on Bijan his first year.

But what about Saquon's rookie year when he had 91 catches, 2000 yards 15 TDs?
Or Zeke's 1900 yards and 16 TDs

Gibbs, Kamara, Kareem Hunt are a few more RBs from recebt years who had monster rookie years that would have been worth first round picks in fantasy. I am not saying you should or shouldn't rank Jeanty in the top 10 but I am saying his fantasy outcome has nothing at all to do with how Art Smith decided to use Bijan as a rookie.

 

[Peggy]

FBG has him as RB4. I'm not wasting a top 10 pick like a lot of people did on Bijan his first year.

But what about Saquon's rookie year when he had 91 catches, 2000 yards 15 TDs?
Or Zeke's 1900 yards and 16 TDs

Gibbs, Kamara, Kareem Hunt are a few more RBs from recebt years who had monster rookie years that would have been worth first round picks in fantasy. I am not saying you should or shouldn't rank Jeanty in the top 10 but I am saying his fantasy outcome has nothing at all to do with how Art Smith decided to use Bijan as a rookie.

I guess it comes down to what's more likely...Jeanty or Achane/CMC/Henry. I'll take the later with a late 1st rounder.

 

[Ilov80s]

FBG has him as RB4. I'm not wasting a top 10 pick like a lot of people did on Bijan his first year.

But what about Saquon's rookie year when he had 91 catches, 2000 yards 15 TDs?
Or Zeke's 1900 yards and 16 TDs

Gibbs, Kamara, Kareem Hunt are a few more RBs from recebt years who had monster rookie years that would have been worth first round picks in fantasy. I am not saying you should or shouldn't rank Jeanty in the top 10 but I am saying his fantasy outcome has nothing at all to do with how Art Smith decided to use Bijan as a rookie.

I guess it comes down to what's more likely...Jeanty or Achane/CMC/Henry. I'll take the later with a late 1st rounder.

Oh yeah I think I am probably doing the same. I get why someone might put Jeanty over the others though too. Henry is 31, CMC has the extensive injury history and Achane is QB dependent. When Tua was out last year, he was unplayable. But we also know what their upsides are and we really don’t with Jeanty.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

FBG has him as RB4. I'm not wasting a top 10 pick like a lot of people did on Bijan his first year.

But what about Saquon's rookie year when he had 91 catches, 2000 yards 15 TDs?
Or Zeke's 1900 yards and 16 TDs

Gibbs, Kamara, Kareem Hunt are a few more RBs from recebt years who had monster rookie years that would have been worth first round picks in fantasy. I am not saying you should or shouldn't rank Jeanty in the top 10 but I am saying his fantasy outcome has nothing at all to do with how Art Smith decided to use Bijan as a rookie.

Also i would say that the floor is still very reasonable with these early NFL picks.

Bijan as a "wasted" rookie pick was still 1500 yards, 58 receptions, 8 TDs as a rookie. Yes that was RB12 at RB4 prices, but that's not terrible for a "bust".

Compare that to some of the top 3 RBs in fantasy drafts the last few years that weren't rookies. CMC, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb.

Those are just guys in the last 2 years. We have to go back more than a decade and a half to find a top 10 drafted rookie RB that had a season anywhere near as bad as any of those guys.

Cook, Kamara, Saquon, Devonta Freeman, McCoy, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, etc. These are all guys who were established top fantasy running backs that had big bust seasons far worse than what rookie Bijan or any other top 10 drafted rookie has put together.

Statistically, the rookies have a higher floor, lower bust rate, all without any expense to upside as they put up top 3 RB seasons at at least the same rate as the established guys.

Small sample size for sure, but the rookies drafted in the top 10 have had a remarkably good return on their rookie season.

 

[Peggy]

FBG has him as RB4. I'm not wasting a top 10 pick like a lot of people did on Bijan his first year.

But what about Saquon's rookie year when he had 91 catches, 2000 yards 15 TDs?
Or Zeke's 1900 yards and 16 TDs

Gibbs, Kamara, Kareem Hunt are a few more RBs from recebt years who had monster rookie years that would have been worth first round picks in fantasy. I am not saying you should or shouldn't rank Jeanty in the top 10 but I am saying his fantasy outcome has nothing at all to do with how Art Smith decided to use Bijan as a rookie.

Also i would say that the floor is still very reasonable with these early NFL picks.

Bijan as a "wasted" rookie pick was still 1500 yards, 58 receptions, 8 TDs as a rookie. Yes that was RB12 at RB4 prices, but that's not terrible for a "bust".

Compare that to some of the top 3 RBs in fantasy drafts the last few years that weren't rookies. CMC, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb.

Those are just guys in the last 2 years. We have to go back more than a decade and a half to find a top 10 drafted rookie RB that had a season anywhere near as bad as any of those guys.

Cook, Kamara, Saquon, Devonta Freeman, McCoy, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, etc. These are all guys who were established top fantasy running backs that had big bust seasons far worse than what rookie Bijan or any other top 10 drafted rookie has put together.

Statistically, the rookies have a higher floor, lower bust rate, all without any expense to upside as they put up top 3 RB seasons at at least the same rate as the established guys.

Small sample size for sure, but the rookies drafted in the top 10 have had a remarkably good return on their rookie season.

CMC was a big injury bust for sure. I guess you can say rookies don't get injured as much?
I never bought Ekeler as a top 5 and I don't think anyone had Chubb top 5 that I remember.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This thread has a case of the vapors.

Fetch me my fainting couch!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

FBG has him as RB4. I'm not wasting a top 10 pick like a lot of people did on Bijan his first year.

But what about Saquon's rookie year when he had 91 catches, 2000 yards 15 TDs?
Or Zeke's 1900 yards and 16 TDs

Gibbs, Kamara, Kareem Hunt are a few more RBs from recebt years who had monster rookie years that would have been worth first round picks in fantasy. I am not saying you should or shouldn't rank Jeanty in the top 10 but I am saying his fantasy outcome has nothing at all to do with how Art Smith decided to use Bijan as a rookie.

Also i would say that the floor is still very reasonable with these early NFL picks.

Bijan as a "wasted" rookie pick was still 1500 yards, 58 receptions, 8 TDs as a rookie. Yes that was RB12 at RB4 prices, but that's not terrible for a "bust".

Compare that to some of the top 3 RBs in fantasy drafts the last few years that weren't rookies. CMC, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb.

Those are just guys in the last 2 years. We have to go back more than a decade and a half to find a top 10 drafted rookie RB that had a season anywhere near as bad as any of those guys.

Cook, Kamara, Saquon, Devonta Freeman, McCoy, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, etc. These are all guys who were established top fantasy running backs that had big bust seasons far worse than what rookie Bijan or any other top 10 drafted rookie has put together.

Statistically, the rookies have a higher floor, lower bust rate, all without any expense to upside as they put up top 3 RB seasons at at least the same rate as the established guys.

Small sample size for sure, but the rookies drafted in the top 10 have had a remarkably good return on their rookie season.

CMC was a big injury bust for sure. I guess you can say rookies don't get injured as much?
I never bought Ekeler as a top 5 and I don't think anyone had Chubb top 5 that I remember.

CMC has actually had top 3 adp while failing to finish as a top 12 running back THREE separate times (2019, 2020, 2024). Something the rookies haven't had happen a single time in 15 years.

I accidentally left off Jonathan Taylor as well. Granted he got hurt but he underperformed even before the injury (RB19 in ppg).

And really I only gleaned the list. Tons of top 3 fantasy RB picks that didn't return a top 12 season. Sometimes due to injury, sometimes not.

But regardless, the point is not necessarily that the rookies are for sure better picks, it's just that they're clearly not worse picks or any more "risky". Statistically, they have been much better picks, but some of that like you mentioned is that they've dodged injuries.

Bang for the buck has definitely been there, and risk has been low, relative to most FF investments.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bang for the buck has definitely been there, and risk has been low, relative to most FF investments.

I’ve had generally good luck drafting rookie RB, both with health and production.

I vividly recall drafting LT2 in 2001 in the 2nd round - the dude ahead of me (3rd position) started to say his name, then stopped and said “damn, he has the same BYE week as my 1st RB” and took Garrison Hearst.

So I snapped up LT2, who gave me a top 9 RB season from the 2.11 spot.


Thinking back I’ve probably had more success with rookie RB than I have with established veterans. But that’s anecdotal at best, and not any sort of evidence.

I have my 1st Jeanty share in a FBG league with @FreeBaGeL - grabbed him 1.12. Pretty sure he wouldn't have made it back to me. So we’ll see what happens.

 

[Nick Vermeil]

Bang for the buck has definitely been there, and risk has been low, relative to most FF investments.

I’ve had generally good luck drafting rookie RB, both with health and production.

I vividly recall drafting LT2 in 2001 in the 2nd round - the dude ahead of me (3rd position) started to say his name, then stopped and said “damn, he has the same BYE week as my 1st RB” and took Garrison Hearst.

So I snapped up LT2, who gave me a top 9 RB season from the 2.11 spot.


Thinking back I’ve probably had more success with rookie RB than I have with established veterans. But that’s anecdotal at best, and not any sort of evidence.

I have my 1st Jeanty share in a FBG league with @FreeBaGeL - grabbed him 1.12. Pretty sure he wouldn't have made it back to me. So we’ll see what happens.

You really should have waited until the second round.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You really should have waited until the second round

Well, 2.01 was where I took BTJ, sooooo.

 

[TapRackBang]

For every Emmitt Smith, there's a dozen Reggie Bushes.
Try to keep it all in perspective.

If you draft him in the top 10 and he doesn't produce, you're in a real pickle.

Everybody else in the top 10 rankings is there because they've already proven themselves.

 

[OnTheReg]

For every Emmitt Smith, there's a dozen Reggie Bushes.
Try to keep it all in perspective.

If you draft him in the top 10 and he doesn't produce, you're in a real pickle.

Everybody else in the top 10 rankings is there because they've already proven themselves.

But the odds of him not producing at the very least a top RB12 level aren’t high.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For every Emmitt Smith, there's a dozen Reggie Bushes.
Try to keep it all in perspective.

If you draft him in the top 10 and he doesn't produce, you're in a real pickle.

Everybody else in the top 10 rankings is there because they've already proven themselves.

I think it varies with the prospect - also, Bush gets a lot of grief, but he had some fantastic numbers from 2011-2013. We just all expected him to put it all together in one season & right from the jump, but that didn’t happen.

If I were able to get Reggie Bush in his prime numbers from Jeanty I’d be pretty psyched.

I think Jeanty’s opportunity alone will be enough for a top 12 FF season. It’s worth the gamble at the end of the 1st in redraft IMO.

 

[FantasyGuru24]

For every Emmitt Smith, there's a dozen Reggie Bushes.
Try to keep it all in perspective.

If you draft him in the top 10 and he doesn't produce, you're in a real pickle.

Everybody else in the top 10 rankings is there because they've already proven themselves.

That’s true for any player you draft in the Top 10 that busts .. They’re all risky. You don’t win your league with your first pick, but you can definitely lose it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Reggie actually finished as RB9 his rookie season, about right for his 2nd round ADP.

It was just his efficiency that sucked. He got lots of volume. Which is really a large part of the basis for why these early drafted rookie RBs typically have such high floors in their rookie year. The teams draft them to use them.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That’s true for any player you draft in the Top 10 that busts .. They’re all risky. You don’t win your league with your first pick, but you can definitely lose it.

Happened to me many, many times. Too many.

Priest Holmes the year he hurt his neck.

LT2 in his last semi-productive season in Sandy Eggo (12 TDs, but not LT numbers)

Etc.

Also I got a 2K yard season out of Jamal
Lewis because everyone thought he was washed when he got out of prison in 2003. I think he was a 4th round pick.

So yeah - who can know.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The teams draft them to use them.

And in this case it’s Pete (chew chew chew chew) Carroll.

 

[Bayhawks]

That’s true for any player you draft in the Top 10 that busts .. They’re all risky. You don’t win your league with your first pick, but you can definitely lose it.

Happened to me many, many times. Too many.

Priest Holmes the year he hurt his neck.

LT2 in his last semi-productive season in Sandy Eggo (12 TDs, but not LT numbers)

Etc.

Also I got a 2K yard season out of Jamal
Lewis because everyone thought he was washed when he got out of prison in 2003. I think he was a 4th round pick.

So yeah - who can know.

Lewis ran for 2K in 2003 & served his 4 month prison sentence in 2005 .

 

[KellysHeroes]

Today is an important day; if that offense looks like Poop Poop and Jeanty again disappoints then its over-reaction time

 

[Streetduck]

FFS, we have a dude in the Raiders thread saying he's confident in Jeanty being a HOF RB and another here saying he's most comparable to Barry Sanders.

Both homies may be right, but seriously, SLOW YOUR ROLL!! Jinx potential aside, this dude hasn't played a down in the NFL. Always walk before you run.

The most important things you learn are after you know it all.

 

[Heisenberg23]

Are the Raiders gonna run every play out of shotgun. If so, this does not bold well for the running back.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That’s true for any player you draft in the Top 10 that busts .. They’re all risky. You don’t win your league with your first pick, but you can definitely lose it.

Happened to me many, many times. Too many.

Priest Holmes the year he hurt his neck.

LT2 in his last semi-productive season in Sandy Eggo (12 TDs, but not LT numbers)

Etc.

Also I got a 2K yard season out of Jamal
Lewis because everyone thought he was washed when he got out of prison in 2003. I think he was a 4th round pick.

So yeah - who can know.

Lewis ran for 2K in 2003 & served his 4 month prison sentence in 2005 .

Hmm.. I must be getting old.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Are the Raiders gonna run every play out of shotgun. If so, this does not bold well for the running back.

Lord I hope not.

 

[massraider]

We've seen enough.

Bench him till the regular season.

 

[KellysHeroes]

promising

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

We've seen enough.

Bench him till the regular season.

Just watched the highlights. Put him in bubble wrap until game 1. I’m now officially a little excited to have a share.