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RB Austin Ekeler, WAS (1 Viewer)

is Ekeler the biggest draft miss by nfl teams ever? I'm sure there are some other undrafted greats, but he's been top 5 at his position for years now

That was a cool article. I think being an undrafted star is even more impressive in modern times. Yes, there are fewer rounds so more talent is left undrafted. But the scouting is exponentially more advanced. For everyone to miss a great player for the entire draft is tough to do these days. Ekeler, Warner and Gates are three impressive misses by the entire league over and over and over.
 
Did not realize Warren Moon was undrafted.

And love Rod Smith, that Broncos team was fun to watch.
very few black qb's were generating interest back then,

what's also amazing is the draft was 12 rounds then.
Yeah, Moon not being drafted was definitely a race issue. He wasn’t small like a lot of QBs who went undrafted or were drafted to play another position.

Not all of it was race though. Joe Theisman fell to the 4th round because of size and Washington drafted him as a DB and punt returner. Had to go to CFL to prove he could play QB.
 
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable. If you have good talent behind him (Spiller might be the guy but we'll see) then that's one thing; you can survive the decrease in production easier. But if you have whodafuks behind him that doesn't make sense.
 
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable. If you have good talent behind him (Spiller might be the guy but we'll see) then that's one thing; you can survive the decrease in production easier. But if you have whodafuks behind him that doesn't make sense.

Agree in part, but no easy answer. Kind of a proven formula that the RB position is (arguably) the worst position to heavily invest in.

NEP did OK for never dumping cash into RB position.
 
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable. If you have good talent behind him (Spiller might be the guy but we'll see) then that's one thing; you can survive the decrease in production easier. But if you have whodafuks behind him that doesn't make sense.

Agree in part, but no easy answer. Kind of a proven formula that the RB position is (arguably) the worst position to heavily invest in.

NEP did OK for never dumping cash into RB position.
Look what CMC did in SF!
 
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable. If you have good talent behind him (Spiller might be the guy but we'll see) then that's one thing; you can survive the decrease in production easier. But if you have whodafuks behind him that doesn't make sense.
I think one problem is that RB dropoff seems to happen out of nowhere. One year you're slicing up defenses, and the very next you're plodding for 2-3 yards a carry. Losing that fraction of a step makes all the difference. So it's hard for teams to trust one with big money, especially when shiny new toys are available every April.
 
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable
I mean, trading Ekeler and drafting Bijan at 21 makes a lot of sense.

I wouldn't be upset by it, but I don't think that is the right course of action. For one thing, I would be a bit surprised if Bijan makes it to 1.21. And I'm not convinced there would be a number of willing trade partners who will give anything of value for Ekeler, given his age and contract situation. More important than those things, the Chargers have some important needs that should be addressable in this draft, most notably Edge, WR, and TE. I am hoping to see them use their first 3 picks at those positions, and keep Ekeler.
 
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable. If you have good talent behind him (Spiller might be the guy but we'll see) then that's one thing; you can survive the decrease in production easier. But if you have whodafuks behind him that doesn't make sense.
Morons for what, not giving a 28 yo RB a huge extension when he's already under contract? They aren't the ones initiating this, he's the one who asked for an extension and then a trade. I don't blame him at all as he hasn't made a lot of money so far (relatively speaking) and his window is closing, but I don't blame the Chargers either. I'd give him a reasonable extension/more money but I certainly wouldn't break the bank for him.
 
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable. If you have good talent behind him (Spiller might be the guy but we'll see) then that's one thing; you can survive the decrease in production easier. But if you have whodafuks behind him that doesn't make sense.

Agree in part, but no easy answer. Kind of a proven formula that the RB position is (arguably) the worst position to heavily invest in.

NEP did OK for never dumping cash into RB position.
Look what CMC did in SF!
Totally different situation. SF has not yet had to pay a franchise QB salary. Also, the goal (I think) is to win the Super Bowl, which they have not done yet with this team. Also, CMC is not without his own injury history.

All I'm saying is that dumping big chunks of salary cap on the RB position has not been a good strategy.
 
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable
I mean, trading Ekeler and drafting Bijan at 21 makes a lot of sense.
And if that the play that's great. If you have talent close enough where the drop in production doesn't hurt, go for it. Bijan is absolutely going to be a talented dude and you reset the RB clock where he'd be cheap for at least 2-3 years. I'm talking about situations where you've got a Top 5 guys at RB and seemingly you don't want to pay him, but will throw money at other positions/have no one of note to replace that RB.
I swear these teams are morons. Just because the position is considered "replaceable" doesn't mean that RBs that give elite production are easily replaceable. If you have good talent behind him (Spiller might be the guy but we'll see) then that's one thing; you can survive the decrease in production easier. But if you have whodafuks behind him that doesn't make sense.

Agree in part, but no easy answer. Kind of a proven formula that the RB position is (arguably) the worst position to heavily invest in.

NEP did OK for never dumping cash into RB position.
Look what CMC did in SF!
Totally different situation. SF has not yet had to pay a franchise QB salary. Also, the goal (I think) is to win the Super Bowl, which they have not done yet with this team. Also, CMC is not without his own injury history.

All I'm saying is that dumping big chunks of salary cap on the RB position has not been a good strategy.
What I'm saying is front offices don't ever seem to differentiate elite RB production and regular guys, but will absolutely throw all the monies at mediocre QBs. The money doesn't matter as much as years matter with RB contracts; everyone holds up the Ezekiel Elliot contract w/o realizing while he was a bit overpaid, it was the years that made no sense (6/$90 in 2019???). Money can be kajiggered a million different ways (signing bonus/incentives), but if my RB gives you Top 3 production at his position, I'd want to pay him in most cases.
 
There is no way I’m giving a 28 yo RB an extension.

As a Chargers fan, I'd be happy to give him a 2 year extension, carrying him through his age 30 season. He is not a typical RB in terms of his usage, workload, etc., so I think he can be effective for at least that long.

The problem is that he wants a top 5 RB APY contract, so more than $10M/year. I don't think he is worth that, and I don't think he will get it from the Chargers or any team.
 
There is no way I’m giving a 28 yo RB an extension.

As a Chargers fan, I'd be happy to give him a 2 year extension, carrying him through his age 30 season. He is not a typical RB in terms of his usage, workload, etc., so I think he can be effective for at least that long.

The problem is that he wants a top 5 RB APY contract, so more than $10M/year. I don't think he is worth that, and I don't think he will get it from the Chargers or any team.
I’d rather let him play this year out and franchise him the next.
 
There is no way I’m giving a 28 yo RB an extension.

As a Chargers fan, I'd be happy to give him a 2 year extension, carrying him through his age 30 season. He is not a typical RB in terms of his usage, workload, etc., so I think he can be effective for at least that long.

The problem is that he wants a top 5 RB APY contract, so more than $10M/year. I don't think he is worth that, and I don't think he will get it from the Chargers or any team.
I’d rather let him play this year out and franchise him the next.
I'd agree, I'd not extend 28 year old RB's.

And while his usage is not as high as most RB's I think that's what helped him be effective at 27, a year most RB's are already slowing down. He started looking worn out to me last year so low career usage or not I think his slow down is approaching.

Miles Sanders essentially got $13m over 2 years as best contract a RB got how hit UFA. Ekeler is better but older. His market value is somewhere between that and the one year franchise tag amounts. Even the top 5 RB's now would not be getting the contracts they got today.

Ekeler seems like a smart enough guy and what he's seen go in in FA has I'm sure made him realize he's not getting top 5 money. No one is going to trade for him and give him a big deal.

My guess is the Chargers will end up adding some incentives to his deal, and they will all move forward.
 

Chargers GM Tom Telesco said the team would like Austin Ekeler back, "but no predictions on what happens."

Ekeler, who has been granted permission to seek a trade, hasn't received any public interest from outside teams so far. Telesco didn't speculate on a timetable for resolution, much like Ekeler didn't on a podcast last week. This seems like a situation that will be in stasis until at least the draft, and possibly longer if Ekeler elects to hold-in. The Athletic's Daniel Popper adds that "The fact that the Chargers granted Ekeler’s request is an indication of how far apart they were on extension talks."
SOURCE: The Athletic
Mar 28, 2023 at 1:54 PM ET
 
Sirrius morning show was talking about how the chargers probably say he's not an everydown back like Derrick Henry (he's not) and doesn't take enough carries (he has a zillion receptions on top of his carries.)

I totally thought Solomon Wilcox was off base here and I do regularly enjoy the show.

Eckeler puts in work. Clearly!

If there is even a hint of this being true, I'd request a trade too.

I just can't believe they'd say it and think he was offering an opinion and wording it poorly. Either quote the Chargers or don't. Keep it simple.
 

Chargers GM Tom Telesco had "no update" on Austin Ekeler's contract situation and did not answer a question asking if he'd received any interest from other teams in a trade.​

Los Angeles' GM was very optimistic about the rest of the running back room, calling it "pretty good," and downplayed the need to draft a back by noting that second-year player Isaiah Spiller fits the mold of "players from previous draft classes to rise up." Athletic beat writer Daniel Popper believes the team has to address running back "in the first four rounds" if Ekeler isn't going to be back, meaning we may get some closing clarity on his fantasy situation even if most of the smoke has been that he'll be back with the Chargers in 2023.
RELATED:
SOURCE: The Athletic
Apr 25, 2023, 1:50 PM ET
 

Chargers HC Brandon Staley said he expects Austin Ekeler to be at the team's mandatory minicamp.​

Unsurprisingly, Ekeler wasn't spotted at Day 1 of voluntary OTAs, but Staley isn't worried about him missing time for mandatory minicamp. In search of either a new contract, a trade, or both, Ekeler is set to earn $6.25 million in the final year of his contract and will be 29 when he enters free agency next offseason. Appearing unwilling to accommodate their star running back, the Chargers will likely head into this season with Ekeler and part ways with him at year's end. Ekeler has already hinted that he'll play out the final year of his deal if it comes down to it. Barring any unforeseen developments, it sounds like the two sides will ultimately play out the upcoming campaign despite their differences.
SOURCE: Bridget Condon on Twitter
May 22, 2023, 5:16 PM ET
 
I know everybody hates him, but I think Spiller will get more work in 2023 and will be the primary backup. If he doesn't, then he's waiver wire fodder.
I know the testing numbers for Spiller were bad, but many forget he was the youngest, or one of the youngest rookies last year. Still plenty of time for him to "get it" and hopefully become the top backup, or more.
 

Austin Ekeler will play for the Chargers in 2023 after the team added $2 million in incentives to his contract.​

Heading into his age-28 season, a couple million in contract incentives was all Ekeler could muster after threatening to hold out for an extension. He'll be a free agent at the end of the 2023 season and will almost certainly play for another team in 2024. Ekeler, among the most productive backs in the league over the past two seasons, was scheduled to make $6.25 million in the final year of his deal with LA. After leading all running backs in targets and receptions last season, Ekeler is well worth a top-15 selection in PPR formats this summer.
SOURCE: ESPN.com
May 23, 2023, 9:17 AM ET
 
Ekeler will eat this year. He will be running for a big contract this year and the Chargers are going to run the wheels off of him.
His health will be the only thing to stop him this year. If your team is a contender, you have to ride him. If your team is a pretender, trade him away to a contender.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.

They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.

Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation: How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?

Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.

They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.

Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation: How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?

Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.

It’s not a huge contract and the cap is mostly a myth if you have cash. I’m not going to spend a lot of time analyzing their cap, maybe you’re right, but you gotta to go full LA Rams to actually lose good players in his price range. Its almost never that punitive.

Edit- I clicked the article and see you’ve put in a ton of effort on it. I’ll concede you know a whole lot more about their situation but I’ll maintain I just can’t imagine them not being able to figure out how to keep him if they want.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.

They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.

Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation: How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?

Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.

It’s not a huge contract and the cap is mostly a myth if you have cash. I’m not going to spend a lot of time analyzing their cap, maybe you’re right, but you gotta to go full LA Rams to actually lose good players in his price range. Its almost never that punitive.

Edit- I clicked the article and see you’ve put in a ton of effort on it. I’ll concede you know a whole lot more about their situation but I’ll maintain I just can’t imagine them not being able to figure out how to keep him if they want.

It's just not a good allocation of resources. This tangent began with your suggestion that they should/would tag Ekeler next offseason. OTC projects the 2024 RB franchise tag at $13.2M and the 2024 RB transition tag at $10.8M. That franchise tag amount alone, not accounting for any other Chargers RB/FBs, is more than all but 4 other teams currently have allocated to RB/FB for 2023, and those figures include all RB/FBs on the current 90 man rosters.

I know there are many fans who believe the cap is a myth. It's not. The bill always comes due, sooner or later for teams that don't spend responsibly. That is why the Rams are going through what they are going through, as one example.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.

They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.

Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation: How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?

Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.

It’s not a huge contract and the cap is mostly a myth if you have cash. I’m not going to spend a lot of time analyzing their cap, maybe you’re right, but you gotta to go full LA Rams to actually lose good players in his price range. Its almost never that punitive.

Edit- I clicked the article and see you’ve put in a ton of effort on it. I’ll concede you know a whole lot more about their situation but I’ll maintain I just can’t imagine them not being able to figure out how to keep him if they want.

It's just not a good allocation of resources. This tangent began with your suggestion that they should/would tag Ekeler next offseason. OTC projects the 2024 RB franchise tag at $13.2M and the 2024 RB transition tag at $10.8M. That franchise tag amount alone, not accounting for any other Chargers RB/FBs, is more than all but 4 other teams currently have allocated to RB/FB for 2023, and those figures include all RB/FBs on the current 90 man rosters.

I know there are many fans who believe the cap is a myth. It's not. The bill always comes due, sooner or later for teams that don't spend responsibly. That is why the Rams are going through what they are going through, as one example.

The Rams are about the only valid example in recent memory. Even the Saints wiggle out constantly. It’s not a myth but it can be navigated with a heavy cash approach. I respect the effort of spending all that time analyzing their situation, but until more teams actually get stuck with their pants down, it’s an argument I’m fine being casual about. There’s almost always a way to keep a player that would cost $13M. Whether or not you think it’s worth tagging him is a different story.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.

They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.

Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation: How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?

Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.

It’s not a huge contract and the cap is mostly a myth if you have cash. I’m not going to spend a lot of time analyzing their cap, maybe you’re right, but you gotta to go full LA Rams to actually lose good players in his price range. Its almost never that punitive.

Edit- I clicked the article and see you’ve put in a ton of effort on it. I’ll concede you know a whole lot more about their situation but I’ll maintain I just can’t imagine them not being able to figure out how to keep him if they want.

It's just not a good allocation of resources. This tangent began with your suggestion that they should/would tag Ekeler next offseason. OTC projects the 2024 RB franchise tag at $13.2M and the 2024 RB transition tag at $10.8M. That franchise tag amount alone, not accounting for any other Chargers RB/FBs, is more than all but 4 other teams currently have allocated to RB/FB for 2023, and those figures include all RB/FBs on the current 90 man rosters.

I know there are many fans who believe the cap is a myth. It's not. The bill always comes due, sooner or later for teams that don't spend responsibly. That is why the Rams are going through what they are going through, as one example.

The Rams are about the only valid example in recent memory. Even the Saints wiggle out constantly. It’s not a myth but it can be navigated with a heavy cash approach. I respect the effort of spending all that time analyzing their situation, but until more teams actually get stuck with their pants down, it’s an argument I’m fine being casual about. There’s almost always a way to keep a player that would cost $13M. Whether or not you think it’s worth tagging him is a different story.

I agree they could make decisions that would enable them to keep Ekeler under the franchise tag. The whole point is that everything comes at an opportunity cost. Committing $13M to Ekeler next season requires not allocating that $13M to other priorities and/or making other decisions that may not be in the long term best interest of the franchise.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.

They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.

Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation: How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?

Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.

It’s not a huge contract and the cap is mostly a myth if you have cash. I’m not going to spend a lot of time analyzing their cap, maybe you’re right, but you gotta to go full LA Rams to actually lose good players in his price range. Its almost never that punitive.

Edit- I clicked the article and see you’ve put in a ton of effort on it. I’ll concede you know a whole lot more about their situation but I’ll maintain I just can’t imagine them not being able to figure out how to keep him if they want.

It's just not a good allocation of resources. This tangent began with your suggestion that they should/would tag Ekeler next offseason. OTC projects the 2024 RB franchise tag at $13.2M and the 2024 RB transition tag at $10.8M. That franchise tag amount alone, not accounting for any other Chargers RB/FBs, is more than all but 4 other teams currently have allocated to RB/FB for 2023, and those figures include all RB/FBs on the current 90 man rosters.

I know there are many fans who believe the cap is a myth. It's not. The bill always comes due, sooner or later for teams that don't spend responsibly. That is why the Rams are going through what they are going through, as one example.

The Rams are about the only valid example in recent memory. Even the Saints wiggle out constantly. It’s not a myth but it can be navigated with a heavy cash approach. I respect the effort of spending all that time analyzing their situation, but until more teams actually get stuck with their pants down, it’s an argument I’m fine being casual about. There’s almost always a way to keep a player that would cost $13M. Whether or not you think it’s worth tagging him is a different story.

I agree they could make decisions that would enable them to keep Ekeler under the franchise tag. The whole point is that everything comes at an opportunity cost. Committing $13M to Ekeler next season requires not allocating that $13M to other priorities and/or making other decisions that may not be in the long term best interest of the franchise.

Of course, that’s always the case. I would say if Ekeler has another of the same kind of season, he’s far too valuable to that team to let get away. Much more than a typical back. Maybe they use the tag as leverage and work out a 2 year deal or some such. Idk but to me this is a situation where Ekeler will be a Charger as long as he keeps putting up good seasons. And as soon as he doesn’t, he’s gone.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.

They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.

Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation: How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?

Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.

It’s not a huge contract and the cap is mostly a myth if you have cash. I’m not going to spend a lot of time analyzing their cap, maybe you’re right, but you gotta to go full LA Rams to actually lose good players in his price range. Its almost never that punitive.

Edit- I clicked the article and see you’ve put in a ton of effort on it. I’ll concede you know a whole lot more about their situation but I’ll maintain I just can’t imagine them not being able to figure out how to keep him if they want.

It's just not a good allocation of resources. This tangent began with your suggestion that they should/would tag Ekeler next offseason. OTC projects the 2024 RB franchise tag at $13.2M and the 2024 RB transition tag at $10.8M. That franchise tag amount alone, not accounting for any other Chargers RB/FBs, is more than all but 4 other teams currently have allocated to RB/FB for 2023, and those figures include all RB/FBs on the current 90 man rosters.

I know there are many fans who believe the cap is a myth. It's not. The bill always comes due, sooner or later for teams that don't spend responsibly. That is why the Rams are going through what they are going through, as one example.

The Rams are about the only valid example in recent memory. Even the Saints wiggle out constantly. It’s not a myth but it can be navigated with a heavy cash approach. I respect the effort of spending all that time analyzing their situation, but until more teams actually get stuck with their pants down, it’s an argument I’m fine being casual about. There’s almost always a way to keep a player that would cost $13M. Whether or not you think it’s worth tagging him is a different story.

I agree they could make decisions that would enable them to keep Ekeler under the franchise tag. The whole point is that everything comes at an opportunity cost. Committing $13M to Ekeler next season requires not allocating that $13M to other priorities and/or making other decisions that may not be in the long term best interest of the franchise.

Of course, that’s always the case. I would say if Ekeler has another of the same kind of season, he’s far too valuable to that team to let get away. Much more than a typical back. Maybe they use the tag as leverage and work out a 2 year deal or some such. Idk but to me this is a situation where Ekeler will be a Charger as long as he keeps putting up good seasons. And as soon as he doesn’t, he’s gone.

Just to give you an example of the opportunity cost, I expect the Chargers will likely trade either Allen or Mike Williams and either Bosa or Mack next offseason, driven by their cap situation. I think the team would prefer to keep all 4 of those players over Ekeler next offseason.

I absolutely think if they keep him it is likely to be on a 3 year deal with a low 2024 cap hit, where the team has an out after year 2. It is conceivable they could incorporate void years for cap purposes, which is something they have avoided so far.

However, it should be clear that the team and Ekeler were far apart in their contract numbers, given it reached the point of Ekeler asking for and receiving permission to seek a trade. Next offseason, he will be a year older, and likely coming off a weaker season than he was this offseason.

I don't think he is going to have a year like the past couple years, barring multiple significant injuries to other targets. The pool of quality targets is much deeper for the Chargers this year than in any year I can remember for several years. I expect this to reduce Ekeler's targets and TDs, though it could mean better YPC / YPA.

If he walks, he likely will figure positively into the comp pick formula for 2025.

Combine all factors, and I expect he is gone next offseason. As a Chargers fan, I'd be happy to be wrong.
 
"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.

Yikes.

They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.

I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.

Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.

They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.

Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation: How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?

Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.

It’s not a huge contract and the cap is mostly a myth if you have cash. I’m not going to spend a lot of time analyzing their cap, maybe you’re right, but you gotta to go full LA Rams to actually lose good players in his price range. Its almost never that punitive.

Edit- I clicked the article and see you’ve put in a ton of effort on it. I’ll concede you know a whole lot more about their situation but I’ll maintain I just can’t imagine them not being able to figure out how to keep him if they want.

It's just not a good allocation of resources. This tangent began with your suggestion that they should/would tag Ekeler next offseason. OTC projects the 2024 RB franchise tag at $13.2M and the 2024 RB transition tag at $10.8M. That franchise tag amount alone, not accounting for any other Chargers RB/FBs, is more than all but 4 other teams currently have allocated to RB/FB for 2023, and those figures include all RB/FBs on the current 90 man rosters.

I know there are many fans who believe the cap is a myth. It's not. The bill always comes due, sooner or later for teams that don't spend responsibly. That is why the Rams are going through what they are going through, as one example.

The Rams are about the only valid example in recent memory. Even the Saints wiggle out constantly. It’s not a myth but it can be navigated with a heavy cash approach. I respect the effort of spending all that time analyzing their situation, but until more teams actually get stuck with their pants down, it’s an argument I’m fine being casual about. There’s almost always a way to keep a player that would cost $13M. Whether or not you think it’s worth tagging him is a different story.

I agree they could make decisions that would enable them to keep Ekeler under the franchise tag. The whole point is that everything comes at an opportunity cost. Committing $13M to Ekeler next season requires not allocating that $13M to other priorities and/or making other decisions that may not be in the long term best interest of the franchise.

Of course, that’s always the case. I would say if Ekeler has another of the same kind of season, he’s far too valuable to that team to let get away. Much more than a typical back. Maybe they use the tag as leverage and work out a 2 year deal or some such. Idk but to me this is a situation where Ekeler will be a Charger as long as he keeps putting up good seasons. And as soon as he doesn’t, he’s gone.

Just to give you an example of the opportunity cost, I expect the Chargers will likely trade either Allen or Mike Williams and either Bosa or Mack next offseason, driven by their cap situation. I think the team would prefer to keep all 4 of those players over Ekeler next offseason.

I absolutely think if they keep him it is likely to be on a 3 year deal with a low 2024 cap hit, where the team has an out after year 2. It is conceivable they could incorporate void years for cap purposes, which is something they have avoided so far.

However, it should be clear that the team and Ekeler were far apart in their contract numbers, given it reached the point of Ekeler asking for and receiving permission to seek a trade. Next offseason, he will be a year older, and likely coming off a weaker season than he was this offseason.

I don't think he is going to have a year like the past couple years, barring multiple significant injuries to other targets. The pool of quality targets is much deeper for the Chargers this year than in any year I can remember for several years. I expect this to reduce Ekeler's targets and TDs, though it could mean better YPC / YPA.

If he walks, he likely will figure positively into the comp pick formula for 2025.

Combine all factors, and I expect he is gone next offseason. As a Chargers fan, I'd be happy to be wrong.

I don’t really think whatever the reality of negotiations this year was matters for next year. They had him under contract, and they wisely let him test the trade market knowing teams aren’t going to be lining up to trade assets AND give him more money…there was nothing to force their hand. If he balls out again which, who knows, but if he does, it’s a brand new situation next off-season.

A lot can happen between now and then. I don’t see anyone lining up to trade for Williams, Allen, or Mack at their price tags. Allen could be a cut candidate, especially if he has a down or injured season. In that event, I would expect it. Same for Williams. I’m sure you realize Bosa isn’t going anywhere, that’s just nuts. Mack seems like he’s just stuck on the roster through 24.

Running backs are pretty much all a year to year proposition once they’re off their rookie deals in my view. Ekeler is no different. I just tend to think he has another good season and he will be too valuable to their offense to let walk. We shall see.
 
I don’t see anyone lining up to trade for Williams, Allen, or Mack at their price tags. Allen could be a cut candidate, especially if he has a down or injured season.

I expect Allen will have one of the best seasons of his career, maybe his best, if he stays healthy. Once he got healthy last season, he was one of the top WRs in the league the rest of the way. I posted this at Bolts from the Blue earlier this offseason:

We all know Allen had a serious hamstring injury this season that kept him out for 7 games completely and most of 9 games. He was healthy and played full-time in weeks 11-18. Here are some metrics for that period from PFF:
  • Allen had 79 targets, #2 among all WRs, behind only Justin Jefferson, who had 83.
  • Allen had 60 receptions, #1 among all WRs.
  • Allen had 699 receiving yards, #5 among all WRs.
  • Allen had 255 yards after the catch, #5 among all WRs.
  • Allen had 36 receiving first downs, #3 among all WRs.
  • Allen had 4 receiving TDs, tied for #3 among all WRs.
  • Allen's PFF receiving grade was 83.9, #7 among all WRs who had at least 20 targets in this 8 game span.
Also, Next Gen Stats shows that Allen's Average Separation (distance in yards measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion) was 3.6, which tied for #4 among WRs. This despite the fact that he was #58 among WRs in Average Cushion (distance in yards measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets).

That is elite performance, period. This indicates there is no sign of him slowing down yet.

I think Allen plays out his entire career with the Chargers.

As for trade value "at their price tags," consider this:
  • Allen would be under contract for the 2024 season only at $23.1M, assuming the acquiring team pays his 2024 roster bonus. As of today, that would rank his cap hit #14 among WRs, and others will end up surpassing him before the 2024 season.
  • Williams would be under contract for the 2024 season only at $20M, assuming the acquiring team pays his 2024 roster bonus. As of today, that would rank his cap hit #14 among WRs, and others will end up surpassing him before the 2024 season.
  • Mack would be under contract for the 2024 season only at $23.05M, assuming the acquiring team pays his 2024 roster bonus. As of today, that would rank his cap hit #11 among Edge players, and others will end up surpassing him before the 2024 season.
I absolutely think each of them would be tradeable for at least a Day 2 or Day 3 draft pick, which is obviously better than releasing any of them. As I said in my other post linked earlier, I think Williams and Mack would be the two I would expect to be traded, barring major changes in circumstances between now and then.

That is all a bit off topic. I'll agree to disagree about Ekeler's prospects with the Chargers in 2024 and beyond, and look forward to watching it play out.
 
Austin Ekeler had 16 rushes for 117 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers’ Week 1 loss against the Dolphins, adding four receptions for 47 yards.

His 16 carries equaled Joshua Kelley’s workload on the day. Ekeler — second on the team with five targets — had a ho-hum day outside of a 55-yard first half scamper that looked to be a touchdown until a Miami defender came from nowhere to track down the LA back. While Kelley’s involvement is a bit concerning, Ekeler’s pass-game usage should keep him afloat as a top-end PPR play. He gets the Titans in Week 2.

- Rotoworld
 
Chargers HC Brandon Staley said RB Austin Ekeler is dealing with an ankle injury.
Ekeler was forced from Sunday’s showdown against the Dolphins for one drive but returned to the game. Per Staley, his status for this week in practice is uncertain. Joshua Kelley filled in admirably for Ekeler, taking 16 carries for 91 yards and one touchdown as the primary change of pace/backup running back.
 

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