"One more year that I'm obligated to be here.“ is exactly what I would not want to hear if I were a shareholder.
Yikes.
They can just tag him again. An extra 20% isn’t that much given his salary.
I have him on a team I’m trying to squeeze another championship or two out of and my hope is he just gets tagged again next year. I don’t want him going anywhere else. He’s perfect for their offense and it would be rather surprising for LA to let him get away.
Edit- thought he was on the tag this season. So, it would be first tag price next year. Either he gets injured or he gets the tag most likely.
They really can't tag him. They can't afford it.
Here is an article I wrote about the Chargers' 2024 cap situation:
How can the Chargers solve their 2024 cap problems?
Even letting Ekeler walk, they will still almost certainly have to trade or release either Allen or Williams and either Bosa or Mack. They will also be unable to re-sign other internal free agents for much more than minimum salary.
It’s not a huge contract and the cap is mostly a myth if you have cash. I’m not going to spend a lot of time analyzing their cap, maybe you’re right, but you gotta to go full LA Rams to actually lose good players in his price range. Its almost never that punitive.
Edit- I clicked the article and see you’ve put in a ton of effort on it. I’ll concede you know a whole lot more about their situation but I’ll maintain I just can’t imagine them not being able to figure out how to keep him if they want.
It's just not a good allocation of resources. This tangent began with your suggestion that they should/would tag Ekeler next offseason. OTC projects the 2024 RB franchise tag at $13.2M and the 2024 RB transition tag at $10.8M. That franchise tag amount alone, not accounting for any other Chargers RB/FBs, is more than all but 4 other teams currently have allocated to RB/FB for 2023, and those figures include all RB/FBs on the current 90 man rosters.
I know there are many fans who believe the cap is a myth. It's not. The bill always comes due, sooner or later for teams that don't spend responsibly. That is why the Rams are going through what they are going through, as one example.
The Rams are about the only valid example in recent memory. Even the Saints wiggle out constantly. It’s not a myth but it can be navigated with a heavy cash approach. I respect the effort of spending all that time analyzing their situation, but until more teams actually get stuck with their pants down, it’s an argument I’m fine being casual about. There’s almost always a way to keep a player that would cost $13M. Whether or not you think it’s worth tagging him is a different story.
I agree they could make decisions that would enable them to keep Ekeler under the franchise tag. The whole point is that everything comes at an opportunity cost. Committing $13M to Ekeler next season requires not allocating that $13M to other priorities and/or making other decisions that may not be in the long term best interest of the franchise.
Of course, that’s always the case. I would say if Ekeler has another of the same kind of season, he’s far too valuable to that team to let get away. Much more than a typical back. Maybe they use the tag as leverage and work out a 2 year deal or some such. Idk but to me this is a situation where Ekeler will be a Charger as long as he keeps putting up good seasons. And as soon as he doesn’t, he’s gone.
Just to give you an example of the opportunity cost, I expect the Chargers will likely trade either Allen or Mike Williams and either Bosa or Mack next offseason, driven by their cap situation. I think the team would prefer to keep all 4 of those players over Ekeler next offseason.
I absolutely think if they keep him it is likely to be on a 3 year deal with a low 2024 cap hit, where the team has an out after year 2. It is conceivable they could incorporate void years for cap purposes, which is something they have avoided so far.
However, it should be clear that the team and Ekeler were far apart in their contract numbers, given it reached the point of Ekeler asking for and receiving permission to seek a trade. Next offseason, he will be a year older, and likely coming off a weaker season than he was this offseason.
I don't think he is going to have a year like the past couple years, barring multiple significant injuries to other targets. The pool of quality targets is much deeper for the Chargers this year than in any year I can remember for several years. I expect this to reduce Ekeler's targets and TDs, though it could mean better YPC / YPA.
If he walks, he likely will figure positively into the comp pick formula for 2025.
Combine all factors, and I expect he is gone next offseason. As a Chargers fan, I'd be happy to be wrong.