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RB Chase Brown, CIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
One of those players you tend to wonder why he doesn't get more usage most weeks. Hyper-efficient, catches and runs well, protects the QB. Last night Burrow seemed utterly fixated on forcing the ball to Jamarr instead. I get it, he's great but always when I watch them I come away thinking Brown could have had more if they'd just use him properly. I guess in one way it's good, he's healthy going into the play-offs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
IIRC they found a weakness to exploit with an inexperienced DB.
And man did they exploit it.
The leader in negative rushing plays from 2018-2023 was Saquon Barkley.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - see, Aikman is an idiot.
But what happens when you take Brown's longest runs from each game out of the equation?
-jb-
Footballguy
as long as we take the same amount of long runs from moss's. oh wait, he didn't have any.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Take away Barry Sanders long runs and he’s not a HOFer.
-jb-
Footballguy
if my aunt had b......never mind.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I didn't catch most of the game so was not aware he almost had another 11+ points lol.
What happened?
floods
Footballguy
He lined up wide on the strong side and ran a stutter/fade route. It was a solid route, but Burrow was a little late on the throw, and the pass was defended. With him lined up at receiver, it looked like a designed target.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep - Burrow was hawking him from the jump - just got the ball out a little late & the defender caught up to make a nice play on the ball.
But clearly designed play for Chase in the end zone.
Take away Jamaar Chase's 15 TD's and he doesn't have any.
Yeah....that guy sucks.
Lmao don't be silly
rschroeder1
Footballguy
I think Aikman's inarticulate point may have been that Brown doesn't generate a ton of long runs. This is somewhat borne out in the stats - Brown is at 4.4 YPC, 18th in the league and exactly at league average.
Advanced stats give a bit of a complex picture:
- 30th (below average) in yards after contact
- 10th (above average) in yards before contact
- 5th in broken tackle rate
If you are a Brown owner in keeper/dynasty (and I am), I think the good news is:
- Brown seems to be in the category of "perfectly fine but not great," and given the Bengals' cap situation and drastic roster needs, that might be enough to get some solid run during his rookie contract.
- Pass protection was cited as a major issue last year; he's clearly being used as a pass protector this year. From an eye test, he looked fine in that role on Monday, but I have not seen advanced stats on this.
- His receiving work speaks for itself and figures to give him fantasy usefulness going forward, even if he doesn't command near-100% of the carries in future years.
Advanced stats give a bit of a complex picture:
- 30th (below average) in yards after contact
- 10th (above average) in yards before contact
- 5th in broken tackle rate
If you are a Brown owner in keeper/dynasty (and I am), I think the good news is:
- Brown seems to be in the category of "perfectly fine but not great," and given the Bengals' cap situation and drastic roster needs, that might be enough to get some solid run during his rookie contract.
- Pass protection was cited as a major issue last year; he's clearly being used as a pass protector this year. From an eye test, he looked fine in that role on Monday, but I have not seen advanced stats on this.
- His receiving work speaks for itself and figures to give him fantasy usefulness going forward, even if he doesn't command near-100% of the carries in future years.
The role is better than the player, but that doesn't mean the player isn't good is how I view him.
excellent post!
With regards to these numbers, they seem contradictory? He's GREAT at breaking tackles, but then immediately gets tackled by the second defender after that? I don't watch CIN so any clarity would be appreciated!
- 5th in broken tackle rate
... that just seems like he's approaching stud territory?
sheerterror
Footballguy
It feels like Mixon redux with a little more juice via fresher legs. Which certainly isn't something his owners are going to complain about.
I don't think that was his point because he followed it up with his YPC without those long runs saying they were pretty well under that 4.4 number. I have no idea what his point was.
ETA: But your post was great information. You should replace Aikman.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
I also don't know exactly how to interpret these numbers. I'm not a Bengals fan and cannot claim to have watched every game.
What I have seen from Brown though is that on runs between the tackles, he often seems to go down at first contact. Whether that's a flaw of Brown or poor run blocking from the O-line is the question - I can't really answer that one.
When he's in space, running off tackle or as a receiver in the flat, anecdotally I can recall Brown forcing missed tackles.
However, these are just random observations that can't possibly be any sort of whole picture.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No RB “generates” long runs. They are a byproduct of a competent run-blocking OL, which as I’ve mentioned before in here, the Bengals do not have.
Post all the stats you like (and I take no issue with the data you presented) but it’s all the proverbial fruit of the poison vine.
Brown does a lot with what the OL gives him.
He is not Jim Brown, or Barry Sanders, or LT2. And no one is arguing that he is.
But he’s been electric in space, has good acceleration, solid vision to hit the hole (unlike Herbert, who we just watched tackle himself after running straight in the the backside of a defensive player) and soft hands as a receiver.
There are far more good qualities than bad, and I still think Aikman is an idiot for that comment because it removes context and puts his lack of long runs on Brown, and not on the team offense who’s job it is to open those holes, or block downfield - neither of which the Bengals do well.
I don’t take issue with saying Brown isn’t great - I’m not sure I believe he’s great either. I do take issues with people saying he’s not even good, or that his shortcomings are entirely on him.
He’s fine. He’s better than merely a byproduct of his volume (I see a guy like Guerendo as largely that) - I’ve seen a lot of his play. I’ve seen him turn a 3 yard loss into a 0 yard loss or 1 yard gain. That’s not nothing, yet it doesn’t really impress anyone on a stat sheet.
Then there’s his blocking, which to my eye has been tremendous for the Bengals. He’s not merely a willing blocker, he’s a very effective one.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
can be summarized as “other Bengals aren’t helping with downfield blocking”.
I mentioned this in my post above before I read this exchange.
So many broken plays where Brown saves them from a loss by breaking a tackle in the backfield and getting back to the line.
Troy Aikman, “he’s got a 0 YPC average. What a terrible RB!”
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I'm surprised people aren't thinking of him extremely highly. I love me some Chase Brown and he was arguably the best value draft selection in fantasy this year.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Beats the hell out of a lot of RBs for dynasty. I’d much rather have him over someone like Swift and his 3.8 average.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That’s an image I must now live with.
beef
Footballguy
Smokin' hot!
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not there’s anything wrong with that.
—Jerry Seinfeld
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
PPR RB11
Widely available in the 6th round or later as the RB36
What’s not to love?
I stole him in 2 dynasty leagues. Very nearly had him in a 3rd, but couldn’t close the deal.
Drafted 33 in my 0.5 pt PPR 14-team league. Z Moss and Dowdle went 31 & 32.
Late value included Hubbard at 38, Dobbins at 42, Charbonnet & Irving at 44, 45.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My WR-heavy build dynasty team (16 team IDP PPR) I traded for Jacobs & Brown, added them to Chuba & Warren.
Thank goodness - Warren’s had a down year.
While Brown has certainly been a great value, I think the best value has to be Brock Bowers. TE1 overall, and 1 of 2 difference makers at the position who was regularly available at TE10 or later. Could argue Terry McLaurin as well, as he was going in the WR35-40 range, and is currently a top-5 WR.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I'd personally nominate Monty in the 8th round as my best value this year. Could have also had Bowers and took Kincaid instead, lesson learned!
What was that lesson? Going into the season you had seen Kincaid succeed and he had a much better QB situation. Taking him over Bowers was good process with a bad outcome. But I am not sure what lesson was learned.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I had the same situation but with Pitts (Also took Hockenson with one of my last picks). The lesson I learned is generational talent will outweigh a bad situation for TEs. I bought into the hype of Pitts bouncing back with Kirk instead of listening to my gut and having the best TE ever to come out sitting there for me late.
That selection is the difference between me likely getting the #1 seed and championship favorite to #6 seed and maybe being 1 and done.
Wasn't Pitts the best TE to every come out too? My point being, just because Bowers was thought to be the current "best ever" doesn't mean he realizes that. I think treating Bowers like we all knew for certain he was actually going to get there (especially with his QB's) after the fact is a bit disingenuous. It's easy to say it with 20-20 hindsight.
Generational talent at TE the last few years seems to be hititng at a 50% rate. Not sure the lesson here.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Pitts was more elite athlete than elite player imo. Bowers blows him out of the water as a prospect imo. Add in the fact there was a lot of bad tape on Pitts in recent years and I decided to say F it, he'll surely bounce back now!
You could argue Bowers was a much better talent than Kincaid. But, overall, I doubt any draft other than maybe a dynasty startup, involved Bowers going over Kincaid.
If we limit it to RBs, I think Monty is up there. I'd probably have Brown and Hubbard over him, because they are just as productive, and went quite a bit later.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
To listen to my own gut and not follow group-think I suppose. I had him higher in my head but followed the herd too much.
My guess this is hindsight bias, whenever someone says this the gut seems to always be right. Noone ever posts I'm glad I didn't listen to their gut when it's wrong.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Oh no. I got plenty wrong that was nothing to do with anyone else and based on gut feelings. I had Richardson QB3, never mind the consensus of 5 or 6. I also had Hall RB1. Both wrong. Drafted them both based on that. Bowers on the other hand, I had TE5 with Kincaid at 6 or 7. Thanks for the sweeping statement though, helpful stuff.
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I'll be your huckleberry and it's regarding Kincaid.
His usage under Brady with Knox last year was concerning. For various reasons I was willing to take shots on him for the upside but I recall the Bills beat writer Joe Buscaglia in an article sometime in August warning people to be leery of expecting Kincaids role to grow like we think. I'm normally a slave to my research, and I did not ignore this comment and did view Kincaid as a massive risk but I still felt in my gut he was more likely then not to be a league winner type and so I went with him a few very regrettable times in some really key leagues. So for me this was a case of not putting enough stock in my research, going with my gut, and being dead wrong.
I said this up post but I knew it watching the week one game. Knew I'd made a mistake but even then I did not think it would be this bad.
Well you didn't understand my comment at all, but that's ok we can move on.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Well, I understand it didn't add to the discussion that was taking place at all, due to the sweeping generalization made and the slightly antagonistic tone behind it. But sure, moving on. Chase Brown, been great this year.
there was no antagomism at all dude, you misunderstood my comment, it's ok no worries.
