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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Charles is one of best examples. He only averaged 16 total touches a game in his career, about 13 carries and 3 catches a game and with that he averaged 16 points a game, which is usually a top 10 PPR most seasons.
Reggie with Saints averaged 13.7 touches a game, 8.7 as rusher and 5 as a receiver. Averaged just under 15 fantasy points a game.
David Johnson and Bell both put up about 12.5 fantasy points a game last year just on receiving work. If he provided that kind of receiving work and mixed in about 40 yards rushing a game with a few TD's he be a top 10 if not top 5 RB most seasons.
That's fantasy, you don't need to be a bellcow to be a top fantasy RB.
In terms of real life football his value comes in the matchup's he would provide in addition to return ability. Very Reggie Bush like IMO, but I think he's a better between the tackles runner but he's not going to get picked in the first round because of that skill either.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Put this kid in GB with Cobb and Montgomery and they would never have to change out personnel and still create formation/matchup nightmares all game long.
kutta
Footballguy
Ok. So just to be clear. Maybe we are all saying the same thing. He'll catch passes, return punts, and run a little. He won't be running between the tackles on first and second down. He'll be used on gadget plays and will be a pretty decent NFL player.
If that's what the supporters mean when they say he's the best RB in this class, then OK.
If that's what the supporters mean when they say he's the best RB in this class, then OK.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I disagree with what you contend to being the only way to use him. He may not be a traditional bell cow between-the-tackles 30 carry a game masher, but it doesn't mean he can't be a primary RB. Not in today's NFL. His size doesn't preclude him from getting 18-22 touches a game plus return capability. He just needs a team with a creative OC.
kutta
Footballguy
Well, David Johnson averaged 23 touches a game. If you are getting 22 touches, you're pretty much the bell cow. Not a chance in hell he averages in that arena of touches.
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kutta
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Pretty straight forward. He'll return punts/kicks, play big part in passing game, do some work from the slot and in addition to that he'll be asked to run between the tackles on first and second down. Will he get help from other RB's? Yes. Will he be a traditional 20 carry bellcow? Highly doubt it. But I'm 100% not saying that running between the tackles is not going to be a part of the package he brings to a team.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I believe MCaffrey will work his way into a feature back role, if not right away.
I guess it ultimately depends on his situation, but he's got bell cow ability, IMO.
I guess it ultimately depends on his situation, but he's got bell cow ability, IMO.
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kutta
Footballguy
Well of course, every guy listed as an RB on the roster is going to run between the tackles at some point. What would you guess his "traditional" rush to slot/receiving back ratio looks like?
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Danny Woodhead finished top 15 a few years. I'm pretty sure Easy Ed son will be very good.
gianmarco
Footballguy
In 2010, Peyton Hillis finished as RB2 in ppr with 305 pts (19ppg). For Cleveland.
But I guess white RBs can't be fantasy relevant.
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kutta
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
Lots of guys are one year wonders or flame out. But the idea that a RB can't succeed because he's white in today's NFL is not true. Hillis is white and he was a monster for an entire season. And that's the argument some are making here as to why McCaffrey won't succeed.
If you want to knock McCaffrey on his size, then have at it. His weight of 202 lbs is a legit concern as being a high volume guy. His skin color isn't.
kutta
Footballguy
Hillis was an aberration for exactly one year. Not exactly the kind of guy you want to hang your hat on.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Kutta, I generally respect most everything you post, but I'm not sure what you're trying to get at here. Your replies are a bit strange. There's an underlying argument for some that McCaffrey can't/won't be successful primarily because he's white. And when I say successful, I mean fantasy relevant since that's why we're here. Part of that argument is that no white RBs have been fantasy relevant in 30 yrs (posted by some here).
So, what is it that you're trying to get at here by your replies to me?
--Are you of the thought that he can't/won't do well because he's white?
--If so, how do you explain a white RB finishing RB2 in 2010 and another white RB finishing RB3 in 2013 (Woodhead) who also finished RB12 in 2015 and RB24 in 2012?
When the % of RBs being white is so low to begin with at the NFL level, of course the number of white guys having sustained success in the NFL is going to be low as well. But the idea that it isn't possible is refuted by the fact that white guys have been fantasy relevant over the last few years. Especially when the claim is that none have and I just showed 2 guys over the last few years. Are we moving the goalposts now to needing to be sustained fantasy studs at RB like Bell or AP?
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kutta
Footballguy
Here's where I'm at.
For some reason we aren't allowed to talk about race and athleticism. Yet every single cornerback in the NFL is black. And there's a LOT of them. And every single starting RB is black. And just about every single WR is black. But we can't talk about it or we are racist. It's not that white guys aren't trying. There are all kinds of white RBs, WRs, and CBs in high school. There are less in college, and even less in the NFL.
So, why? I don't know for sure, but is it really racist to say that blacks may be more "athletic" (definition not quite understood) than whites? I don't know. But it seems really strange to me.
So yes. A big part of my hesitation is that CM is white. It just is really different for a white RB to be successful in the NFL. And if you were being honest, you'd admit that there just hasn't been a real, significant white back since John Riggins. Why?
Again. I don't know why. But it's not like white guys haven't been trying for the last 30 years. But they just haven't made it. If CM is the first one, good for him. But I'll have to see it to believe it.
gianmarco
Footballguy
If you're looking at the population as a whole, and you see that black people are the vast majority of RBs in the NFL, of course that's not racist. That's a fact.
The problem is when you take that statement and apply it in reverse and say a guy is or isn't going to succeed solely on his skin color. THAT is the racist component and no, I don't agree with that. If the guy puts up the college production, if he puts up the combine numbers, and he has the skills to play the position, his skin color is 100%, completely and utterly irrelevant. McCaffrey has defied the odds by getting to where he is when you look at population numbers.
But he's there now and I think it's complete fallacy to apply that kind of thinking to an individual when every checkbox is checked except his skin color. The reason you don't see many white guys in the NFL at that position is because they don't check the necessary checkboxes, not just because they are white.
And you don't need a white RB to be successful for an entire career to prove that. If a RB can't succeed just because he's white, then he can't finish with 300 points at the RB position just because it was some crazy fluke. And the fact that he's likely going to be drafted very high means an NFL team thinks the same.
For the record, I'm not accusing you or anyone else of being "racist" in the sense of the word that we normally ascribe to it. But this thought process is certainly a form of it and I'm a little surprised that some of you ascribe to it.
The problem is when you take that statement and apply it in reverse and say a guy is or isn't going to succeed solely on his skin color. THAT is the racist component and no, I don't agree with that. If the guy puts up the college production, if he puts up the combine numbers, and he has the skills to play the position, his skin color is 100%, completely and utterly irrelevant. McCaffrey has defied the odds by getting to where he is when you look at population numbers.
But he's there now and I think it's complete fallacy to apply that kind of thinking to an individual when every checkbox is checked except his skin color. The reason you don't see many white guys in the NFL at that position is because they don't check the necessary checkboxes, not just because they are white.
And you don't need a white RB to be successful for an entire career to prove that. If a RB can't succeed just because he's white, then he can't finish with 300 points at the RB position just because it was some crazy fluke. And the fact that he's likely going to be drafted very high means an NFL team thinks the same.
For the record, I'm not accusing you or anyone else of being "racist" in the sense of the word that we normally ascribe to it. But this thought process is certainly a form of it and I'm a little surprised that some of you ascribe to it.
CabinFever
Footballguy
John Riggins told me McCaffrey is the truth. For reals. 
How did he do the next season, or the season after. Please don't let one fluke year be your argument.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Man, you sure are invested in being right about something that hasn't occurred yet.
How do you suggest someone makes this prediction when we don't even know what team he'll be playing for?
gianmarco
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Well, at least isn't making his assumptions based strictly on skin color, unlike you.
kutta
Footballguy
I appreciate the non accusation of racism. It's just something that is super strange to me.
The big thing for me is the why. And it's more interesting with cornerbacks. 32 teams and let's just say four per team. That's 128 guys at the same position that are all black. Why? Add it up over the past 20 years and there was one against 20x128? That's insane.
Again. Why?
kutta
Footballguy
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The same thing is happening in the NBA. If you take a white college player in the lottery over the last twenty years, you are almost without exception wasting the pick. There was a time when the NBA was peppered with great white American players, and they are almost nonexistent now. Why?
I could not possibly no when I don't know what team he's playing on and even than it's a major guess.I'm just asking for your opinion on the ratio
ETA: Sorry. Not yours. Meno's
Right now I tend to put his carries to receptions in the Reggie Bush vicinity but a little more rushing, so right around 2 to 1 rush to receiving ratio. How much of that receiving work he gets out traditional RB vs slot role I would not know or truly really care.
Again, if we all knew work ratios fantasy would be a lot easier and that's when we actually know where a guy is playing so just trying to answer your question but it's a bit of a guess at the moment but I'm not trying to not answer. Right now I see him as a 20 touch RB but that includes special teams. I'd tend to view him right now in range of 10-12 carries, 4-5 receptions per game. I believe that workload would be good enough to get him inside top 10 and around top 5 for RB's. A 15-18 PPG player.
Adrian Peterson, a traditonal two down workhorse, averaged 17 and change per game in his career, about the same as Forte. Many ways to score points and produce in fantasy other than getting 300 carries a season. Forte averages about 8 fantasy points a game in the air, about same thing Freeman has done the past two years. I believe that's the floor for McCaffery in terms of production via the passing game. I do not anticipate him averaging 20 carries a game in his career in any season nor think he needs to be to have the fantasy impact I think he can and will have.
Only reason I don't think he can be a 20 carry back is not because he's white, it's because he's not powerful enough. Reason I think he's a better inside runner than someone like Reggie Bush is I think his vision and cutting ability are superior, but he's not got the bulk to grind away at it week in and week out in the NFL.
NFL-ons
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Again, we aren't too far off. I'll take the low end of your prediction and guess at about 13-15 PPG. That puts him at about RB 16-23. I could see that.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Can we stop calling Adrian Peterson a 2 down player? He led his team in 3rd down rushing attempts every year of his career, and was basically tied or better in receptions on 3rd down in about 75% of them as well.
He got less work on 3rd down than on 1st or 2nd, but he still got the majority of the 3rd down work.
He got less work on 3rd down than on 1st or 2nd, but he still got the majority of the 3rd down work.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If the theory is that white guys don't fill those positions because they're generally less athletic, why would him being white matter if his athleticism is an outlier for a white guy and matches up with other guys at the position?
kutta
Footballguy
That's why I said I don't understand what "athleticism" is. I'm not sure we know his athleticism is an outlier.
No I'm going to keep calling him a 2 down player. He never averaged 2 carries a game in season on third down and likely never averaged 2 catches a game on third down either. Basically got about 90% of his workload on first two downs.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Is that because he wasn't ever out there or because teams run less on 3rd down? In one of Peterson's recent healthy seasons he got 78% of his team's 3rd down rushes and 82% of his team's 3rd down receptions. 78% is about the same percentage he got on 1st and 2nd down, there are just fewer 3rd down carries to go around.
There wasn't a single RB in the league that averaged 2 carries a game on third down this year (no one even came close), and only two players (David Johnson and Bilal Powell) averaged 2 catches a game on 3rd down. Your expectations are unrealistic and by your definition there's probably never been a 3 down RB in the history of the NFL (the data I have only goes back 15 years but in that time there's never been a player to average 2 carries and 2 catches a game on 3rd down in a season).
FWIW Peterson is one of only 25 players to have a season where they averaged 2 carries per game on 3rd down. Steven Jackson, Edgerrin James, Brian Westbrook, Ray Rice, and Marshall Faulk all never did it, by the way.
David Johnson got 93% of his rushes and 86% of his touches on 1st and 2nd down this year. LT's career numbers were around the same. Were they two down RBs?
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CalBear
Footballguy
You're very close to an interesting point, but you don't appear to have noticed it. Why are there more successful European NBA players who are white, than former U.S. college players who are?
I don't show Peterson ever averaging 2 carries on third down in a game in his career.
David Johnson and LT were heavily involved in passing game on third downs. AP as we was not.
But listen if you want to call Peterson a three down back because he was on the field a lot I'll concede. You win. It's not what I meant, I meant a back that actually produces on three downs, which he is not.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
We could but it isn't really an inaccurate statement in regards to Peterson.
If you look at his career advanced splits, you see that Peterson has had 166 rushing attempts on 3rd down. This is 7% of his total rushing attempts. 92% of his rushing attempts have been on 1st or second down.
Looking at this further you see that of those 166 3rd down rushing attempts, that 143 of those were on 3rd or 4th and shorter yardage situations.
He had 56 targets on 3rd down for his career, a player such as McCaffrey might have that many in one season.
Peterson has below average career yards per target numbers and he is bad at pass protection as well. He has been spelled on 3rd down by Chester Taylor, Toby Gerhardt and Matt Asiata/McKinnon.
You can see this in the snap counts for Peterson as well. In 2015 for example Peterson only played on 65% of the total snaps. In 2013 he had 65% of the snaps. In 2012 his best season Peterson was on the field for 74% of the snaps.
The theory I've heard most is that white European players are better versed in the fundamentals of the game than their white American counterparts.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
That is possibly a true statement, and possibly a partial answer.petekrum said:
The more complete answer is that the difference in success between white American basketball players and white European players is cultural. It's related to who is playing where, which sports kids have access to or choose to spend time on, and which positions they're tracked into. It's the same reason why whites and blacks have differential success in basketball and football vs. lacrosse and bike racing.
It's likely that there are plenty of white guys with McCaffrey's measurables who are playing something other than football, or that were encouraged to play QB from a young age and didn't develop McCaffrey's receiving and RB skills. But here we have a case where we're looking at the kid of a former NFL Pro Bowl WR. He's been groomed since birth to be an offensive skill position player, which is not common among white guys. And given that his athleticism appears pretty solid, both measurably and on tape, it would seem prudent to assume that athleticism won't be a problem for him. And instead of looking for absurd comparisons like Toby Gerhart, we can look for reasonable comparisons like Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, Lesean McCoy, and estimate where we think McCaffrey will fall on the spectrum of shifty RBs who are great pass catchers, and a little on the skinny side.
