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Too early to get cute like that, but unless he goes to a perfect situation like Indy (might be the only one for him) I think it's highly unlikely he goes before 4, and that's full PPR. I could get behind him at 1.02 in PPR in Indy.
Nope. Take the guy you like. My point was only that at 1.02 the percentage of people who are looking at other options for 1.01 should give you a very good shot at getting McCaffery at 1.02.
Gandalf said:
In a few hours you went from worried to not getting him at 1.2 to pondering moving back. Why do that to yourself? If you love him just stand pat for now and chances are probably in the 80-90% range you control option of getting your guy at 1.2 or at minimum you can asses the situation post draft if you think you can squeeze something else by moving back and still getting him.
Depends on the draft of course, but right now I think it's fairly unlikely he'll make it to 7 and it'd be a toss-up at best at 6.
Agreed. I still think it's highly unlikely he will be there at 6 but I don't see any way he makes it past 6. I would definitely try to move up to 6 either way though. There's a lot yet to happen but as of now there seems to be a drop-off after the top six. If not McCaffrey, you might be able to get Mixon at 6.
I agree, the guy at 1 is taking Fournette, the guy who has the 2 also has the 4 and 5, is gonna go Cook, WR, then probably WR again. Possible not likely.
It's going to be interesting to see what excuses the CM fans use if he doesn't make it in the NFL.
Lots of players fail. It's just the nature of the elite level of competition in the NFL. I don't see why anyone would need an excuse for a player they liked not making it.
I think there's a fair chance given the modest results of Reggie Bush as a player in the NFL that there would still be some doubt, since McCaffrey basically tested as a Reggie Bush clone minus the elite speed.
That is fair and part of my ranking is also based on the weakness of other prospects. Also, was Reggie really that bad? Obviously not a player to build around for dynasty but it was a different time as RB usage goes. Bush had some big years and seems like he was built for the NFL of today.
I would argue that McCaffrey is a superior actual running back to Bush. He runs similarly to McCoy or Bell in that he is patient in waiting for blockers then blasts through the hole. Bush seemed to always just bust it outside, avoiding contact, carrying the ball like a loaf of bread.
Bush was a pretty big bust because his hype was off the charts. No one believed the Texans would pass on him at 1.01, and they took a lot of crap for picking Mario Williams instead. Bush had a decent career as a role player, but never made a Pro Bowl; at 1.02 that's a whiff. Williams wasn't exactly a major star, either, but clearly Houston got more out of him than New Orleans got out of Reggie Bush.
Bush was a bust for the hype but do we think it was something wrong with his talent? I don't. I think he suffered more from a lack of usage, scheme and injuries. I think the Bush skill set can do well in this NFL like a Tevin Coleman.
If you dealt 1.01 for 1.07 and 1.08, I really like that trade for you, but I think the chances of CMC falling to you are remote. one of Davis, Williams, or Mixon may fall to you at 7 if there is and early run on RBs
1.01+2018 2nd for 1.07+1.08+2018 1st+2.08+3.07
As stated, my earliest pick in a rookie draft is 6th, so I'm PRAYING somebody takes him early which will knock a player down to me I'm actually interested in. I won't take him at 6 even if he's there.
This is so wrong. It's not far-fetched at all that McCaffrey could be there. Plenty of other guys have good things going for them and it's entirely likely he's not a top 4 pick. He's not in my top 4.
Same 3-cone as Bush (though to be fair, Bush's was at his pro day, not the combine).
A great problem to have. I don't agree with your choice, but I'd love to have your options.
I also am in camp that thinks McCaffrey is not only a better runner than Reggie but a better route runner. Not as explosive an athlete but as a runner he's got better vision and patience and the biggest glaring difference between the two is Reggie spent early part of his career going East/West way to much, thinking he could outrun everyone. McCaffery does a far superior job of going North/South and as you alluded to is a much more patient runner. You referenced Bell and I think I mentioned this already in this thread but I heard he has Bell's game tapes sent to him to study how he runs.
I got a ton of high picks this season and I can honestly say it's wide open for me. I could go McCaffery as high as 1 or end up rating him as low as 5 or 6. While some will I don't think a lot of people are going to opt for John Ross or OJ Howard over him in single PPR leagues and for him to make to pick 5 I think you are going to need to see Williams, Davis and either Mixon or Kamara to go in most leagues and to make it to pick 6 you'd need all but one of those players along with Fournette/Cook to go. It's pretty wide open but I don't think in most leagues McCaffery is not going to be there at 6, 5 is more like a 50/50 prop.
If he's Gio but better, he is probably in line for RB1 numbers.
I agree with this. I was refuting the point of "it's wishful thinking that he'll be there at 5". There's a very good chance he'll be there in a lot of leagues. And if he goes to a stinker like PIT or the league isn't full PPR, he's got a shot to slide much further.
Fantastic trade for you.
Articles like these make my point that by the time rookie drafts roll around, McCaffrey being there at 1.5-1.6 will be wishful thinking. I say this for the people that truly do want to draft McCaffrey -- do not expect to get him at 1.05 or 1.06. After the NFL draft, after the media hype, and after the minicamps saying how fantastic he looks. It is easy enough to find 4 or 5 guys to stick in front of him now. It won't be so easy to find 4 owners in a league that will pass on him if he is selected at pick 14 by the Eagles, using the example above.
NFL.com Mocks
So this year you gave up the 1.01 for 1.07, 1.08, 2.08 & 3.07Run It Up said:
Elite character translates into a few different things. 1) He's more likely to be on the field if he isn't suspended for knucklehead behaviour. 2) He's more likely to be on the field if he studies/understands the offense. I would think that a high character guy is more likely to do the extra work. 3) A team is more likely to keep him around and give him looks if he is a positive representation of the team. Both in the public and in the locker room.
I think boxing it as position specific you're setting yourself for failure. Most guys at skills positions are diva personalities. There's always exceptions. Marvin Harrison and Amari Cooper at WR come to mind off the top of my head. I could be wrong but isn't David Johnson considered to have great character? The thing you don't have to worry about is them not putting the time in. That's pretty valuable when an organization is paying 10's of millions of dollars. That's the whole reason why Mixon is the discussion of the year.
That man had elite speed. McCaffrey does not. I agree that availability is a skill set and knucklehead behavior sometimes limits that availability, but production matters when a guy takes the field. My point is that being a knucklehead goes with the position more times than not. Elite character does not equal "can't miss" at the RB position. I know a lot of good guys, but that doesn't mean they can break tackles, run a 4.35, or move a pile of large men to ensure another set of downs.
Those guys are WRs, and I agree that character matters much more for WRs. WRs have a number of considerations when evaluating them as players; character, work ethic, coachability, and chemistry with the QB are very important. And David Johnson is a nice kid but he's also 224 lbs. Size does matter in today's NFL, and DJ has that size and skill set to be an every down runner.
224 lbs vs 202 lbs. Johnson is also a converted WR. Maybe McCaffrey converts to WR, in which case I will like him more.
