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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
Wasn't until I watched video that I realized you were joking. For those who didn't/can't watch at work:
First carry, shotgun, hit head on by Cushing and fell forward.
Second carry, shotgun, burst through the middle, got tripped up and fell forward for another two yards.
Third carry, under center, breaks outside for a good gain then pushed out of bounds.
Fourth carry, shotgun, up the middle hit at LoS falls forward for maybe 1/2 yard.
Fifth carry, shotgun, breaks off tackle met by three defenders at LoS and is tackled forward for a yard.
Sixth carry, under center, off tackle left, tackled from behind(ish) falls forward for another 1-2 yards.
Seventh carry, under center, off left tackle, nifty move to slip a tackle and falls forward for another 2-3 yards.
massraider
Footballguy
Man he looks small
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You're expecting Stewart to have a career high carries and/or CAR to not have more overall non-QB rushes?
I think the pool is closer to 200 and depending on Stewart could be over 300. 400 carries - 200 for Stewart, CMc getting around 150 and depth taking the rest. CMc gets 50% of anything over that that Stewart yields to injury.
My only problem with CMc is his ceiling. It's pretty hard-capped with Stewart's standard workload and Cam/Stewart GL roles. I don't see any way CMc gets double digit TD's and even with 1400 total yards (aggressive IMO) that's low RB1/high RB2 at best. I want a better ceiling from a 3rd round pick and I'll risk a lower floor to get it. At their ADP's I'll take Crowell or Hyde all day long. And as a dynasty asset that might not ever clear up, and I think Cook, Mixon, and Fournette all have far higher likely ceilings in the long haul.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Not expecting that at all, I said that is his reasonable low end starting point (maybe I should have said "worst case").
Personally I think 150 carries is a more realistic starting point for McCaffrey, maybe a little more, maybe a little less but it's a good jumping off point for me.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Can you point out which plays where he was "barely hand tackled"? In every play of the video he looked like he was tackled by multiple defenders or tripped up (except for when he went out of bounds) and always fell forward for a couple of more yards. I did not see one play where it looked like he went down easily.
Chaka
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
Carolina had 346 RB rushing attempts last year, 374 the year before ,and 352 in 2014. On average over those 3 seasons Stewart had 212 attempts in 13 games, and their other RBs combined for 146. That's something like 7 carries per game for non-Stewart RBs when Stewart plays and 18 per game when he's out.
In order for McCaffrey to produce significantly more than Duke Johnson has been, he'll need to get a larger share than that (or have Stewart miss a bunch of games).
In order for McCaffrey to produce significantly more than Duke Johnson has been, he'll need to get a larger share than that (or have Stewart miss a bunch of games).
Chaka
Footballguy
You may be right but sonsidering Stewart hasn't been available for 16 games since 2011 it is also possible that the Panthers will reduce his workload in the hopes of having him healthy for 16-19 games. That seems like a reasonable conclusion to draw considering McCaffrey's draft position.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Why are people assuming that JStew's role and touch count remain the same? CAR just drafted a RB 8th overall. Coaches will say whatever they can to deceive their opponents and/or to keep egos in check in house. The $$$ talks here and their 1st round investment in the RB position says that JStew will not remain a 220+ carry RB. If anything, all the non-CMC RBs who will need yo carve out their tole from the scraps, not the other way around. This isn't near the mystery y'all are making this out to be. CMC will get 15 touches per game MINIMUM. Slice and dice how you see fit but don't overthink this.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
iPhone typing.
To carve out their role
To carve out their role
need2know
Footballguy
yeah its pretty obvious CMC is a big part of what they want to do. stewart will still have a role, but hes gonna lose carries. guess some people have to see it happen in a real game first
tombonneau
Footballguy
Right. If Vegas was setting the o/u that JStewart 212 average the over would be +1100.
CMC's value lies in solving for x in the 212-x equation.
Because Stewart himself was the 13th overall pick...and arguably a better talent than Deangelo Williams...yet we saw the two of them not only split carries under Rivera but add Mike Tolbert to the mix in 2013.
I would put far more stock in Rivera's history of RBBC than when McCaffery was drafted.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes. It is fair to expect a huge role for CMC over time given his draft slot. But I think it's a different situation than similar high picks like Fournette or Elliott. I like the Reggie Bush comparison in terms of role.
Rivera seems to use his backfield more like hoodie or Sean Payton IMO. So given that I would personally expect Stewart to get a slight majority of carries, say 60/40 (unless or until he gets hurt again but hesitate to make that a preseason assumption).
pantherclub
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
The fact that Stewart was drafted 13th overall in 2008 means less than nothing in 2017. By any measure he has been a big disappointment at that draft position. While you are correct that when Stewart came into the league Rivera allowed split time between him and DeAngelo what really capped Stewart in 2008 & 2009 was the fact that DeAngelo (who was 25 and in his prime) was playing out of his mind football. Fast forward to 2017 and Stewart is a 30 year old, ten year vet with a history of injuries as long as my arm and three consecutive years of declining production on top of not being available for 16 games since 2011. It's not even a remotely reasonable comparison. ETA: And that was before @Dr. Octopus pointed out Rivera wasn't even the HC at that time.
I don't think anyone is suggesting that McCaffrey is going to get all the carries or even the majority of them. It just seems very likely that McCaffrey will steal touches from Stewart as well as Artis-Payne and Whittaker. It is not unreasonable to project 180 carries for Stewart and 150 for McCaffrey (not even 10/game). That would leave roughly 50 carries for CAP, Fozzy and various WR end arounds etc.
Where Stewart truly hurts McCaffrey is near the goal line. I don't see many scenarios where Stewart or Cam aren't the ones driving it in from inside the five. So McCaffrey's TD potential is severely capped in Carolina.
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Chaka
Footballguy
My league switched to a PPR this year and we haven't had our draft yet so I am relying heavily on the Draft Dominator this year. The DD projects McCaffrey as RB15 according to my league parameters. Looking at the guys also around that position (Ingram, Lynch, T.Coleman, T.Montgomery, D.Cook) RB15 sounds reasonable, although I would probably take Cook over McCaffrey but that's a coin flip IMO.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I count none.
werre you being serious with this post?
if so, 1. You're watching a different clip than I am, and 2. See my last paragraph about waiting for a larger sample size.
But you couldn't have been serious....could you?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ok, at least two of us were watching the same video. Three - I just saw chaka's post.
So what vid was voiceofreason watching?
Not sure why you're quoting my post. My main point is clear in that I don't put a lot of stock in McCaffery's draft position. That poster was using McCaffery's draft position and $$ invested as primary rationale for why he will get 15+ carries minimum. Anyways, I disagreed and just used (attempted to anyway) Stewart himself as a counterexample.
FWIW my projections are very similar at 180/160 split Stew/CMC. I would give CMC significant upside potential given Stewart's injury history. But if Stewart is healthy CMC will not live up to his current ADP IMO.
Good points about the goal line usage. Although I could see some packages where CMC could pose a nice double (if not triple) threat. The guy's not a waif. With Olsen also in the mix they have a lot of optionality.
Chaka
Footballguy
Your post was kind of unclear when you made the comparison to 2008 when it is now clear your intent was to make a comp to 2011. But DeAngelo was still putting up 5.4 ypc in 2011 and Rivera wisely realized that it would have been foolish to try and keep him on the bench. It still doesn't hold as a good comp for 2017 because there is no other back on the roster in 2017 as dynamic as DeAngelo, or Stewart were in 2011.
You also didn't include projections, but yours seem very reasonable.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
'That poster' was me and that is certainly not my primary rationale for my CMC projections. If you have been following this entire thread, I've been hyping/predicting CMC being a stud for 18 months. Another angle, on top of all my football-related angle, was the post you quoted me above but it's only 'another' reason, not a primary one. I don't want to repeat past posts, but if you're at all interested in my opinions of CMC, start back on page 4 of this thread. There are countless reasons why CMC is the real deal and I've sprinkled them throughout this thread. In fact, draft position is the least relevant reason why I think he's destined to be a star.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Everything can be counted. Come on. I do think he's a talented kid, but countless? Bit extreme. If you've "sprinkled" them through this thread, that's not enough to call them "countless".
Ironically, draft position is the most likely reason for him to be a bust for FFB purposes. If he were a 4-5 round ADP guy, he'd have solid upside. But in the 2nd/3rd round he would have to perform at his absolute ceiling to justify his draft position.
All good Rhythmdoctor. Thanks for clarifying.
But if you've got CMC as 15+ minimum carries, that's at least 240 for the year....what do you have for Stewart and Cam and rest of team?
Not saying you're doing this at all...but just seems many who are bullish on McCaffery don't have the numbers to back up an RB16 finish with Stewart healthy and Cam getting his share.
But if you've got CMC as 15+ minimum carries, that's at least 240 for the year....what do you have for Stewart and Cam and rest of team?
Not saying you're doing this at all...but just seems many who are bullish on McCaffery don't have the numbers to back up an RB16 finish with Stewart healthy and Cam getting his share.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
He didn't say carries, he said touches, and I think that's about right. 150 carries to start, 50 catches, more depending on how much time Stewart misses. That's 10 carries per game Stewart plays, and if Stewart misses a ton of games then sure, CMc could end up at 240 - who else is there when he's out?
Nero
Footballguy
I've come around on McCaffery. Consider Bilal Powell, who is a perfectly good size and usage comp, finished as PPR RB21; RB27 on a per game basis. I liked what I saw of McCaffery in preseason game one. I thought he showed good patience and decisiveness running inside. I went in with him ranked 31st, so there was little chance I would have ever rostered him. Now I feel confident that if I had to use him as my second RB, I'd be fine. I'd be comfortable drafting him at the 3-4 turn, so the early third ADP is still a little too high imo.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Oh Jeez.
We're talking two different things by the way. I was talking about his NFL draft status, not anything about ADP. But continue to quote threads and get engaged when you're not even following along.
My bad. You are absolutely correct. 10 carries and 5 recepts. Not sure as a minimum but totally on board with that as a projection, with upside if/when Stewart goes down. Thanks for clarifying.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
The 3-4 turn is currently reserved for RBs 13-16. I don't see how you could draft him there if you thought he'd perform like Powell.
TripItUp
Footballguy
A tad high for total yards and TDs for a floor IMHO, but it's reasonable. 40 receptions is a tad low if Carolina is using him correctly...I think its closer to 50 receptions IMHO. Hard to imagine him getting less than 3 receptions per game.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Yeah, it also says hes 5'8", which he isn't - when he was a patriot he talked about how he lied about his height in college and that hes 5'7" on a good day (hes 5'6").
But hes also put on muscle every year for the past 5 years. He came into the league at 200 lbs, and every preseason you will find tweets about how he has put on another 5lbs of muscle. He was pushing 220 when he broke his leg, he probably lost some weight and its possible he cut down to 205, but I doubt it. Dudes ripped. Woody also runs a sub 4.40 40, just dumb to see these comparisons all the time. CMC is much closer to Shady than Woody.
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Nero
Footballguy
I only used Powell as a baseline, as I think McCaffery will be a much better receiver. I have him 18th now, but its fluid.
ZWK
Footballguy
Recent years' stats seem very relevant for estimating the total size of the RB pie. I don't expect Carolina to have much increase in RB carries or TDs compared to what they've been doing. Here's an attempt at rushing projections.
2014 CAR RBs 352/1379/5
2015 CAR RBs 374/1536/9
2016 CAR RBs 346/1347/11
2014-16 avg 357/1421/8.3
2017 proj 360/1492/9.5
Stewart looks like the lead back (maybe a 60-40 split between him and McCaffrey?), and the goal-line back (along with Cam), and presumably other RBs will take a few carries. So, in games where Stewart & McCaffrey are both in the lineup, I'd expect the RBs to be on pace for something like:
JStew 195/780/6
CMC 130/572/2.5
Others 35/140/1
When Stewart is out, on pace for:
CMC 240/1042/6.5
Others 120/480/3
So if Stewart misses 3 games and McCaffrey plays all 16, that would give McCaffrey 151/660/3.3 rushing.
If we add in receiving stats, let's say 45/405/2.5 (which is a bit better than average for a RB at YPR and TD/rec), that puts McCaffrey on pace for 175 touches, 977 yfs, 5 TDs, and 173 fpts (PPR) when Stewart is playing. If Stewart is out, bump that up to 63/567/3.5 receiving, and that puts McCaffrey on pace for 261 fpts (PPR) if Stewart is out and (assuming 3 missed games for Stewart) gives him a projection of 189 fpts for 16 games.
That makes McCaffrey a borderline RB2/RB3 when Stewart is playing and a low-end RB1 when Stewart is out. Similar to Tevin Coleman, except Stewart is more injury-prone than Freeman.
2014 CAR RBs 352/1379/5
2015 CAR RBs 374/1536/9
2016 CAR RBs 346/1347/11
2014-16 avg 357/1421/8.3
2017 proj 360/1492/9.5
Stewart looks like the lead back (maybe a 60-40 split between him and McCaffrey?), and the goal-line back (along with Cam), and presumably other RBs will take a few carries. So, in games where Stewart & McCaffrey are both in the lineup, I'd expect the RBs to be on pace for something like:
JStew 195/780/6
CMC 130/572/2.5
Others 35/140/1
When Stewart is out, on pace for:
CMC 240/1042/6.5
Others 120/480/3
So if Stewart misses 3 games and McCaffrey plays all 16, that would give McCaffrey 151/660/3.3 rushing.
If we add in receiving stats, let's say 45/405/2.5 (which is a bit better than average for a RB at YPR and TD/rec), that puts McCaffrey on pace for 175 touches, 977 yfs, 5 TDs, and 173 fpts (PPR) when Stewart is playing. If Stewart is out, bump that up to 63/567/3.5 receiving, and that puts McCaffrey on pace for 261 fpts (PPR) if Stewart is out and (assuming 3 missed games for Stewart) gives him a projection of 189 fpts for 16 games.
That makes McCaffrey a borderline RB2/RB3 when Stewart is playing and a low-end RB1 when Stewart is out. Similar to Tevin Coleman, except Stewart is more injury-prone than Freeman.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Good stuff, ZWK. Much appreciated as always. The one assumption I disagree with is the split. I do see a 60/40 split, but with 60% to CMC. The Panthers may ease CMC into that ratio, say a few games of Stew with 60%, but I see CMC getting that 60% eventually and sooner than later. There's a slight chance they keep Jstew heavily in the mix all season to let CMC ease into the NFL, especially if Cam doesn't seem back. Just like anything, if they're winning, they're going to do whatever they can to keep winning. If they're losing all bets are off.
ZWK
Footballguy
Everything I've heard from Carolina suggests that they still see Stewart as the lead back.
If it's 60/40 in favor of McCaffrey, then that's another 65 carries (for his 16-game pace when Stewart plays). If he also gets another 10 receptions because of that increased playing time, that would give him about another 50 fpts in total (again, 16-game pace when Stewart plays), which moves him up into the midrange RB2 level (held back mainly by his lack of TDs, and also by his not-that-huge workload).
I guess it helps that McCaffrey has 3 paths to having at least a solid fantasy season: 1) a Stewart injury, 2) heavy usage in the receiving game (70+ receptions), or 3) overtaking Stewart as the lead back. But it still seems to me like the most likely path puts him as a low-end RB2 at best. His dynasty outlook seems more promising.
I honestly don't think CMC can be a lead back in the NFL.
Watch the tape and you see a jitterbug. A slippery, skipping, hopping little jitterbug. He doesn't slam it in there, he doesn't run it with power. That's not really about his size, although it's a factor, so much as his running style. There have been plenty of backs his size who could run with power and authority. I don't see it from CMC.
It is often said that CMC ran it a lot in college so he must be able to run it a lot in the NFL.
Donnell Pumphrey ran it a lot in college, for over 6000 yards in fact.
Indeed, Danny Woodhead ran it a lot in college too, for nearly 8000 yards!
It's different in the NFL. That's why his coaches, rightly, recognize that his role is to be the complementary back to a bigger, more powerful back.
Watch the tape and you see a jitterbug. A slippery, skipping, hopping little jitterbug. He doesn't slam it in there, he doesn't run it with power. That's not really about his size, although it's a factor, so much as his running style. There have been plenty of backs his size who could run with power and authority. I don't see it from CMC.
It is often said that CMC ran it a lot in college so he must be able to run it a lot in the NFL.
Donnell Pumphrey ran it a lot in college, for over 6000 yards in fact.
Indeed, Danny Woodhead ran it a lot in college too, for nearly 8000 yards!
It's different in the NFL. That's why his coaches, rightly, recognize that his role is to be the complementary back to a bigger, more powerful back.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
ZWK nice work with the numbers.
I tend to agree with Rhyyhmdoctor in regards to the 60/40 split being in McCaffreys favor. Although for this year I would expect that to be more in Stewarts favor, until he is inevitablly injured again, and they scale that back when he can go as the season wears on.
Stewart has missed 3 games of the season for the third year in a row as your numbers show. He did have 50% of more of the offensive snaps when healthy last year, but they really didn't have any other RB worthy of opportunities either in Tolbert, Fozzy and Payne. I think Payne was meant to step up but has failed to do so.
I would say McCaffrey is a lot more competition for playing time than Stewart has had in the last 3 seasons (DeAngelo Williams barely saw the field in 2014 and was only healthy for 6 of those games)
Stewarts snap counts
I tend to agree with Rhyyhmdoctor in regards to the 60/40 split being in McCaffreys favor. Although for this year I would expect that to be more in Stewarts favor, until he is inevitablly injured again, and they scale that back when he can go as the season wears on.
Stewart has missed 3 games of the season for the third year in a row as your numbers show. He did have 50% of more of the offensive snaps when healthy last year, but they really didn't have any other RB worthy of opportunities either in Tolbert, Fozzy and Payne. I think Payne was meant to step up but has failed to do so.
I would say McCaffrey is a lot more competition for playing time than Stewart has had in the last 3 seasons (DeAngelo Williams barely saw the field in 2014 and was only healthy for 6 of those games)
Stewarts snap counts
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Good stuff!!! I think mccaffery will be able to run just fine in the NFL. You don't need to slam it in there for a yard every time. No reason he can't be a poor mans Barry sanders. Warrick Dunn was a small guy that had a way to find the sticks, woodhead has had some nice years. Yes, there will likely be a big back (probably can) for short ydg situations but cmc will be able to run. Perhaps his lack of size leads to injuries, but his style will help him avoid big contact. I'll love the occasional option with cmc rather than stew back there.
Btw, we do have a very close historical parallel for this situation.
In 2006 the New Orleans Saints drafted Reggie Bush high in the first round (1.2)
In 2017 the Carolina Panthers drafted CMC high in the first round (1.8)
Both Bush and McCartney are highly hyped, smaller, speedy guys.
The Saints had a long-serving veteran running back who was already the #1 back, Deuce McAllister.
The Panthers have a long-serving veteran running back who was already the #1 back, Jonathan Stewart.
Both the Saints and Panthers indicated that they intended to use their new back as a complementary back to their veteran back, ie as a change of pace and 3rd down back.
McAllister ran for 1,057 yards and 10 TDs in 2006.
Bush ran for 565 yards and 5 TDs and had 88 receptions for 742 yards and 2 TDs.
Given the very striking similarities of the situations, I expect broadly similar numbers to Bush for CMC this year.
I don't think Stewart will have as good a year as McAllister, so CMC might be able to run for more yards than Bush did, but I would be surprised if CMC gets as many receptions as (88) as Bush did that year.
I would expect about 600 yards on the ground for CMC and 60-70 receptions for about 600 yards. Not too shabby but not worthy of massive hype either.
In 2006 the New Orleans Saints drafted Reggie Bush high in the first round (1.2)
In 2017 the Carolina Panthers drafted CMC high in the first round (1.8)
Both Bush and McCartney are highly hyped, smaller, speedy guys.
The Saints had a long-serving veteran running back who was already the #1 back, Deuce McAllister.
The Panthers have a long-serving veteran running back who was already the #1 back, Jonathan Stewart.
Both the Saints and Panthers indicated that they intended to use their new back as a complementary back to their veteran back, ie as a change of pace and 3rd down back.
McAllister ran for 1,057 yards and 10 TDs in 2006.
Bush ran for 565 yards and 5 TDs and had 88 receptions for 742 yards and 2 TDs.
Given the very striking similarities of the situations, I expect broadly similar numbers to Bush for CMC this year.
I don't think Stewart will have as good a year as McAllister, so CMC might be able to run for more yards than Bush did, but I would be surprised if CMC gets as many receptions as (88) as Bush did that year.
I would expect about 600 yards on the ground for CMC and 60-70 receptions for about 600 yards. Not too shabby but not worthy of massive hype either.
The Saints picked Bush even higher (1.2) than CMC (1.8) and he was still a complementary back for them.
