Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Worth
Every
Pick
And then some.
Every
Pick
And then some.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Couldn’t pick this guy after last years abomination. Maybe he quiet quit as well? Hindsight bias for me is kicking in but having Taylor over him just looks so bad. Perhaps you don’t win anything in fantasy unless you take on these proven studs with added risk to them vs unproven projected young players. Etienne is finally breaking out but my record is brutal
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think most of it is just chance. Football is violent and people get hurt every game. CMC just had some bad breaks with injuries. Also touching the ball as much as he does raises the injury risk. The riskiest players are also the best for fantasy because touches=risk but also touches=points.
I did read that he changed his entire workout philosophy this offseason. He chose to get away from bulking up and shifting to flexibility as his focus. That may also be helping.
He ended up with an ok fantasy game but tonight was super deflating. This post above is what concerned me and in his first game with Mitchell we just saw CMC get 4 less carries and one less total touch then Mitchell. I don't see this going away so long as Mitchell is healthy, this is CMC's new reality. It's not horrible or bust level but it's a huge letdown from what he's pretty much been for fantasy, while healthy, since his rookie season.
FairWarning
Footballguy
You are playing to win this year. It won’t happen next year if Lance is starting.
Just like the rams...
Again though the running game was great and we had picks before CMC. Look at how awesome wilson looks on the dolphins...
FairWarning
Footballguy
I’m a big Wilson guy.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
1 game?
He had like 30 touches last week, he needed a rest this week, just got on the team. I'd withhold judgement for another week.
I said Mitchell was going to factor in, I know in either this thread or the Mitchell thread I mentioned Shanny having a deep trust in Mitchell since he drafted him in the 6th round.
I also saw CMC come up a little short on several touches in the RZ, the Jimmy G TD should have been CMC, that could flip in the next game.
Considering i lost 2 Tight Ends and a stud WR yesterday even with a stellar record for the year, the Playoffs just lost a lot of steam for me
Happy CMC is healthy, could easily pop off for 35 next week depending on the script.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He had a BYE last week.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Col Mustard/MoP "Are you trying to make me look stupid in front of the other guests?"
Wadsworth/HSG "You don't need any help from me, sir"
Col Mustard/MoP "That's Right!"
I hope you understand the reference to the 1985 classic, Clue
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Saw it in the theater, then rented the videotape so we could see the alternate endings.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Has McCaff rendered everyone else in SF a flex option? Deebo, Kittle....they dont seem like starters anymore. Is Aiyuk the best option now?
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Yesterday was disappointing but we have no choice but to hold on and hope for better days. CMC is probably not going to be the entire O like he was with Carolina and it makes sense. It was tough on CMC and not a winning formula.
zamboni
Footballguy
Definitely have to see how things shake out in the next few weeks. In his first week, CMC got 26 touches (including 8 receptions), which is what we were used to in his Carolina days. With Mitchell back yesterday, CMC's touches dropped to 18 (4 receptions). Now that Mitchell is in the fold, it's hard to say where CMC's touches will be, but I think yesterday is probably more representative. Mitchell is a very good RB and it seems like it's best for the team to use both. In the case of CMC, you just have to hope that the reduced volume is more than made up by efficiency with a stronger team. Of some concern though is that the Niners offense is not typically predicated on checking down to their RBs, which is something that made CMC so valuable in PPR even with bad Panther teams.
Last edited:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
On Kittle, the Chargers made a very deliberate effort to take him out of the game.
They double teamed him on almost every route he ran (the one time they didn’t he came down with a clutch reception) .
Aiyuk should have had an even better day - he dropped a TD - albeit thrown a little behind him, but he still shoulda caught it.
Deebo had a few runs, but the one strength the chargers have is their secondary.
I wouldn’t read into the entire ROS based on this one game. The Chargers defense is still pretty solid despite some key player injuries and they had a very good plan for limiting the 49ers, and executed it very well.
Not a lot of great defenses on the 49ers schedule outside of the Bucs, and who knows what they’ll look like by the time that game comes around. I don’t think anything’s really changed - just 1 opponent who had a good defensive scheme.
I'd say a little bit. Its too many mouths to feed unless the offense scores 30+ points every week, and they are likely to conservative for that. CMC probably just had his worst game I'd expect going forward, as they rode Mitchell's hot hand. I doubt there will be any more games where Mitchell out touches CMC, but yeah, the Carolina workload likely isn't coming back, unless there is a trailing game script.
I'd probably call CMC less RB1 overall, and more of a top-5ish guy right now. Mitchell will probably have flex value, Deebo is probably a WR3, Aiyuk is somewhere just behind that, and Kittle is probably a middle of the road TE1, with Jimmy G probably being around QB12-15. Just feels like other than CMC its gonna be inconsistent. This week Kittle and Deebo were left out a bit, next week could be Mitchell and Aiyuk.
I don't know about phrasing it as making them all flex options but he absolutely hurts all of them as they do him.
It's difficult in any offense to feed this much skill position players but it's impossible on a lower passing volume team especially one with a good defense so that they don't have to air it out. They'll have some big games but the math does not work to make them all viable with respect to trusting them week in and week out.
They got the wrong triggerman and offensive scheme to feature all these skill players now and it won't get any better when Lance is gobbling up 5-10 carries a game either. And when I say scheme I mean Kyle's preference to run heavy, not in the least saying he has an inability as a coach to feature these players it's just as simple as he has to many players to feature.
The offense will be increasingly difficult to defend as they start to work out how to use the pieces. It's good for real football, it's good for SF's football team, this is not great for our fantasy teams. All of these players, except whoever is the QB, is lesser for fantasy purposes with CMC on the team as is he.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I don’t know about deflating, not running him into the ground 2 weeks in a row sounds smart to me with his injury history. If this was a bad game, I’m in.
yes, one game with everyone healthy is a pretty good indicator. I get CMC had a huge week 8 game and my guess is the next time both Deebo and Mitchell are out he'll have another huge game but he's not the same for fantasy when these two are around, especially Mitchell, as his glory days from Carolina.
I feel like everytime I bring this up people start grasping at the "well he'll have his big games and he's still good". Yes but he's way off from what he was and that's his new reality. He's been pretty much a 25+ PPG fantasy RB since his rookie season He's probably 70% of what he was. He was basically a RB1 and a WR2 rolled into one. Now he's just like a solid RB1.
Last edited:
No one is disputing his usage is smart for real football.
I don't think I said a thing either about this being his "bad game". I'm saying this is his new normal.
smcindoe
Footballguy
Not a bad game at all but man, there was a little too much Mitchell in there late in the game for my liking. I get that it's football and sometimes "your guy" comes out for a breather at the goal line and that's life, but this was game-on-the-line stuff and they seemed perfectly happy to let Mitchell be the guy.
Even if this is his new normal, and not just a 1 game blip (which it might be) this was still probably as bad a game as he'll have. He had under 3 YPC which basically never happens, and will likely be above 5 more weeks than not, and he almost had a 2nd TD, where he was tackled at the 1, and instead of giving it to him again, Jimmy G snuck it in.
Point being, he could have easily had another 9-10 fantasy points, on this exact workload. I do agree, its a downgrade that Mitchell is taking such a big role. but I'd be really careful about downgrading CMC too much.
Point being, he could have easily had another 9-10 fantasy points, on this exact workload. I do agree, its a downgrade that Mitchell is taking such a big role. but I'd be really careful about downgrading CMC too much.
I want to agree but I can't. He got I believe 4 carries inside the 5 yard line. That's a lot and he's going to have a lot less in other games. Where you say, and you are not the only one saying this, he could have got 2 TD's I'll say that I was pulling hard for him Sunday night and and truly feel he just as easily could have got zero TD's and scored 6 less points. When you are in a full fledged RBBC, and he is, you can do worse then around 18'ish a game.
I feel like his best case scenario at this point is do something that looks similar to Kamara. Kamara's never been a bell cow and in his career averaged 12 carries and about 5 receptions a game and turned that into a 20 PPG average. Problem with this is again other then Mitchell there are still multiple mouths to feed and when Kamara was usually blowing up the team had one other quality option in the passing game and the team just passed way more.
CMC's best games are probably going to be when SF has to go pass heavy if they get behind but with a strong defense that's not going to happen much and Tampa Bay is arguably the second best offense they will face the rest of the year.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Exactly why I didn't want him traded there. 2nd worst destination after the Rams. He'll split carries with the water boy by the end of the year
-QG
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I don’t think the coach is spinning lies. I expect Elijah to get a fair amount of carries each week and a 50/50 split is likely some weeks. 60/40 in the favor of CMC is likely most weeks.
I tend to believe the coach over some random CMC owner on a fantasy board...
DocHolliday
Footballguy
No.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
If you watched the game(not saying you didnt), they were CMC obsessed in the first Half and it opened up a lot of easy scores to other guys on the roster.
Not good for your FF team but things ebb and flow, I imagine he will have a 25-30 pt game soon and people won't be asking these questions for long.
He was close to breaking one several times, as it was he was gaining nice yds on his touches, 7 receptions on top of 100 yds last night.
17-18 pts never felt so empty watching all the other Niners score TDs
Mitchell didn't really touch the ball until the 2nd Half, it wasn't a time share when the game was tight
Down Under
Footballguy
Maybe not as of now, but was he before he was traded? JT is not as of now either. There may be no "consensus". Lots of things could change between now and year end also.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
He's not the only show in town anymore, so the monster games will not be anywhere close to the frequency it was before arriving to SF.
rockaction
Footballguy
Needed 24, got 14.10 (Half PPR). Sad trombone.
To stay on-topic, though. I think menobrown is more right than people are giving him credit for. I think he has the situation sussed out pretty well, it's just that down the stretch when they're jockeying for position, Shanahan might not be able to resist the dimension McCaffrey gives him over Mitchell, and therefore CMC will see more opportunities than in this one, which was a blowout.
I'd say split the difference between meno's pessimism and what McCaffrey was in Carolina and you've got a fairly accurate tea leaf reading.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Did you say full fledged RBBC?
CMC and Mitchell, seriously? Did you watch the 1st Half when the game was hanging in the balance? Was a lot of CMC, A LOT!
RBBC? I think it's not being real about what actually unfolded.
I could cry about Jimmy G throwing 4 TDs, none of them to CMC but it sure looked like CMC was a super important part of the offense and set everyone else up last night, game scripts change week to week and they played a dumpster fire of a team with poor leadership last night, do we even take any of that into account when we wheel Mitchell out as our RB2/Flex next week?
I'm trying to understand what the end game is proving this is a total RBBC when it's really not.
And FYI, go back thru the Michell and CMC thread, pretty sure I was one of the first that said Mitchell will have a significant role when he returns from IR, I am understanding but if you watch the first Half of the game Sunday Night, Elijah was hardly on the field
38-10 Final Score
4TD BLOWOUT, not sure it was even that close.
What do you want from CMC in a virtually meaningless 2nd Half, 4th Q? I'm happy they aren't abusing him, likely going to finish the season strong for once. Bodes well for the Playoffs, glad I traded for him when he went to SF
See I'm biased
Last edited:
jtp1982
Footballguy
elite route running, elite
ability to catch the ball in tight places
seems almost custom made for Shanahan’s offense and garrapolo‘s skill set. not an owner never been one or watched that much cmc tbh,
but man it just jumped out at you watching that game
last night.
Brilliant roster move by the 49ers
crushedspirit
Footballguy
I doubt anyone is questioning his skillset, especially receiving. The fact remains he won't be featured like he was before with Deebo, Kittle, and Aiyuk on the roster, plus Shanny will use Mitchell to keep CMC fresh for the NFC playoff run, which is probably the main reason he went to get a new toy for his offense. There is only 1 ball to go around.
Last edited:
He's played two games with Mitchell and both times it's been Mitchell who led in carries. End of game scripts matter as well.
They for sure matter but the context of the end of game script matters too. While the game was close it was all CMC. So it appears that if the game is a contest CMC will get the bulk of the usage and as the game outcome becomes less in doubt Mitchell will get more run. At least that is what I have seen the last couple of games while Mitchell has been active.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
Didn't Mitchell get more carries last week in a tight game v SD?
IMO just talking about CMC vs Mitchell is getting sidetracked on bigger picture. CMC is just not needed to carry the load like he did in SF. CMC vs Mitchell is just part of that equation but it's aso about Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle on a team that runs on the lower end of passing volume. Last night actually saw all of them have at least a solid fantasy game which is really hard to do on 29 pass attempts. But that's the point some of us have tried to make, we did not use 1.1 or 1.2 on CMC for solid or care about getting sidetracked with were he would rank for ROS. At least I don't care about that. All I care about is analyzing was this trade a downgrade for him for ROS and I can't see how anyone continues to see it any differently.
Their offense is fun to watch and CMC's versatility has seemingly opened the whole thing up, especially key in giving Jimmy G another "Easy Button" option which I think has made him extremely comfortable. No one is or should be disputing that CMC is still a first round caliber fantasy player or that in real football not running him into the ground is a plus for his long term outlook and SF's outlook in the playoffs. But none of that does not mean CMC took a decent sized fantasy downgrade for ROS with this trade.
Their offense is fun to watch and CMC's versatility has seemingly opened the whole thing up, especially key in giving Jimmy G another "Easy Button" option which I think has made him extremely comfortable. No one is or should be disputing that CMC is still a first round caliber fantasy player or that in real football not running him into the ground is a plus for his long term outlook and SF's outlook in the playoffs. But none of that does not mean CMC took a decent sized fantasy downgrade for ROS with this trade.
