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RB Devin Singletary, NYG (1 Viewer)
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Milkman
Footballguy
The RAS grade they gave Singletary I don't get at all and I would strongly disagree with. I was not high on Singletary during the draft last year so I agree with their athletic score but after watching him play I see elite vision, elite ability to make defenders miss in a phone booth, great balance, and good routes.
He's a great buy low as I think he comes out and leads the backfield in carries/receiving.
His vision is special and it's how he makes up for his lack of athleticism.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Love seeing you say this as I just acquired him in dynasty. I love the kid - he was fun to watch last year & he was a bargain in most redraft leagues.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Love watching him too, but with Moss & Allen vulturing TDs, I suspect he will produce very disappointing TD numbers. I've seen him going in the 3rd, and I think that's way too high.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Allen is a bigger concern, IMO. But PPR he should still be a fine RB2.
my dynasty team is structured on having studs everywhere & throwing a couple of plug & pray RBs in there. for that style of play, Singletary is kind of perfect - he’s unlikely to put up a doughnut, and he could have a couple monster games with a big play or 3.
i agree his ceiling is capped by circumstances surrounding him.
I'd agree with this.
I don't think its a lock Singletary gets 3rd down work either, as Moss is a better blocker and has better hands.
I think this is very likely a 50-50 backfield, but also a very productive one. Dynasty wise, 'I've got both guys in the RB20-30 range.
ETA: I do think Moss is a pretty big concern. They used similar draft capital on him as they did Singletary, and that was with Singletary already on the roster. I'd be shocked if Moss only saw Gore's role. They could have gotten a guy to do that a lot later(or in FA) especially considering they didn't have a 1st round pick, they must really like Moss to take him as high as they did.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Singletary is a top 10 RB in my dynasty rankings. Yes Allen will steal GL carries but Moss is not a threat. The Bill's needed RB depth. There was nobody else really on the roster behind Singletary. They view Singletary as a RB with special vision. That is exactly what he is so kudos to the Bill's scouting department for seeing that. They also really turned to Singletary in the 2nd half of the season and he did well. The 2nd half is the workload he's in line for this season. Check it out.
Combining carries and targets the last 7 games including the one playoff game 16, 23, 18, 25, 24, 16, and 20.
The Bill's hit it big on Singletary and they know it.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Man I hope you are right, I’m looking at keeping him over AJ Brown and that link above was depressing.
Milkman
Footballguy
Go watch his highlights from last year. It'll make you feel better. I have no idea how they watched that and got a metric from it that said he's JAG.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
He’s not a burner and won’t ever be the type of guy that breaks off 80 yard runs. But he has functional NFL speed which you can see if you watch his highlights or just watch him play in general. He has phenomenal vision, understands how to set guys up, has smooth hips and footwork that lets him out subtle moves on guys to gain extra yards. His feet are always driving which gives him those few extra yards and he often runs through arm tackles. He was also a pretty decent weapon out of the backfield (when he wasn’t dropping passes).
I think it was Matt Waldman last year who put out a video breaking down just how awesome Singletary’s footwork is. He has an innate ability to make tiny moves that setup a defender. Tiny hesitations, or body leans, or steps that get defenders moving the wrong way or freeze them for an instant. Maybe his lack of speed will ultimately limit him, but I think he has an elite understanding of how to play the RB position and elite instincts that can make up for any athletic deficits.
I think it was Matt Waldman last year who put out a video breaking down just how awesome Singletary’s footwork is. He has an innate ability to make tiny moves that setup a defender. Tiny hesitations, or body leans, or steps that get defenders moving the wrong way or freeze them for an instant. Maybe his lack of speed will ultimately limit him, but I think he has an elite understanding of how to play the RB position and elite instincts that can make up for any athletic deficits.
bostonfred
Footballguy
https://youtu.be/ZD2T6pwfdZ0
Watch that and tell me he didn't get explosive plays or that he's not a good receiver. He had so many big plays where he got tackled at the one or two. He could easily have gotten more touchdowns than he did, and I assure you, the Bills do not want their quarterback to be their goal line back. Touchdown regression will swing the other way.
The Bills didn't prioritize getting someone else to start. They prioritized getting a running back because they had nobody else on the depth chart. They got the last good rb in this draft class once the other good ones were off the board. They got a big body who can play in cold weather games, and a guy who is versatile enough to play well if Singletary misses time. They got a guy who can compete. But they didnt draft a replacement. Watch that video and tell me why you would want to replace that.
Watch that and tell me he didn't get explosive plays or that he's not a good receiver. He had so many big plays where he got tackled at the one or two. He could easily have gotten more touchdowns than he did, and I assure you, the Bills do not want their quarterback to be their goal line back. Touchdown regression will swing the other way.
The Bills didn't prioritize getting someone else to start. They prioritized getting a running back because they had nobody else on the depth chart. They got the last good rb in this draft class once the other good ones were off the board. They got a big body who can play in cold weather games, and a guy who is versatile enough to play well if Singletary misses time. They got a guy who can compete. But they didnt draft a replacement. Watch that video and tell me why you would want to replace that.
The RAS grade is their athletic score compared against the other RBs in the draft class, that's why it's so low. It doesn't account for his balance, moves, etc.
He also had a grand total of 1 TD during those 7 games, and you have to factor in "fresh legs" into his performance. Moss absolutely is a threat IMO- you don't use a 3rd round pick (which is the same round they used on Singletary the year prior) just to fill a roster spot, they could have signed any number of cheap vets if that's all they were looking to do. It seems much more likely that they are planning on some sort of split, and Allen and Moss will very likely get the lions share of TD's. Top 10 is way too high IMO.
Again, their metric is purely based on athleticism- he's less than JAG athletically. Love pretty much everything else about him.
Are there other considerations, like salary or something? If not, AJ Brown is the easy choice IMO.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I misspoke I meant the PFN OSM score. I get he's not an elite athlete. Not sure how they got such a low score on his performance last year when he was nothing short of amazing when he got the ball.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I think Brown would cost me an 8 and Singletary a 9 in non ppr....man I was thinking it was the other way .
No salary or anything like that.
UGH
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GoBirds
Footballguy
Do you see him taking control of the Bills backfield and being the lead dog the next few years or just as likely to end up as the B back in a RBBC? Trying to gauge his keeper potential.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think he’s the guy, at least for this year. But I don’t think the Bills are necessarily looking at him as a 400 carry take 90% of carries type guy. I think they want some mix and that there will be a decent split. But saying that, they gushed about Singletary after the draft last year. They haven’t done the same thing with Moss this year, so I think they have a clear preference for now for Singletary. The offense definitely was at its best last year when he was heavily involved in the offense.
And I’ll say it wasn’t just the Buffalo front office or coaching staff that talked Devin up last year. He got a ton of praise from Frank Gore and a lot of other veterans on the team that were really impressed with him. You could tell it was genuine too and not just typical fluff.
I think this is much more about the virus than anything, they weren't able to bring players in for visits and haven't been able to do much of anything in person. That said, I've seen them praise Moss, and really all you need to know is that they tried to trade up to get him and spent roughly the same draft capital on him as they did on Singletary.GroveDiesel said:
Who knows how it all shakes out, it's entirely possible that Singletary takes the reins and runs away with the bulk of the work, but people are being naive if they think Moss is zero threat or he was just brought in because they had no one else at RB. They obviously like him.
The "all you need to know' doesnt work for me as they literally had no other RB on the team worth a carry. That's when you must secure depth. And of course they always try to draft guys they like.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't think anyone believes they drafted Moss to replace Singletary but the staff has shown they prefer a two back system - look at how much Gore was used last season - and Moss is a very solid runner, pass blocker and receiver as well. The draft did not diminish Singletary's value as most people figured the Bills would add another back. Moss is probably being dismissed too easily by some in here though - considering this is the Singletary thread that's not too surprising though.bostonfred said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
I am not writing off Moss. I agree that both will get carries. This team looks a lot like the Ravens - mobile quarterback, heavy run game with multiple RBs getting touches, decent receiving options if needed, strong defense.
I just don't think the Bills drafting Moss is a major change for Singletary. It might cap his upside a little, but not that much.
First, I see Singletary as a focal point of their offense, just like he was the second half of last year. That wasn't fresh legs - his yards per carry were better in the first half than the second, but his usage went up and he looked up to the task. He gets explosive runs, he can run inside or out, he catches the ball well.
Second, a lot of people talk about Allen stealing all the goal line carries but I think it's unlikely they design their offense around their QB running everything in. I also think Singletary broke a lot of runs and got tackled at the one or two last year, so there's room for positive regression. And he missed a few games with injury or getting rested for the playoffs. He was a stud at the goal line in college. I think he has double digit touchdown potential. It's capped, but not completely.
Third, there's room for moss to get a lot of touches without hurting Singletary's production. In the final 8 weeks when Singletary was the clear rb1, he had 131 carries (and 20 catches). Gore had 85 carries. So it's not like moss needs to suck for Singletary to flourish.
Fourth, let's look at Singletary himself. He averaged over 5 yards per carry, tied for 5th in the NFL. He averaged 5 yards or more per carry in all but a handful of games. Here are the ones where he didnt average 5 plus
7 for 26 vs the dolphins in his first game back from injury. He only got 3 carries and 4 catches the following week. It's safe to say he wasn't 100 percent yet, and this was Gore's revenge game against Miami.
20 for 95 vs washington. He added 3 catches for 45.
14 for 63 vs Dallas. He added 3 catches for 38 and a touchdown.
21 for 87 at Pittsburgh. He added 2 catches for 2 yards.
15 for 46 at New England. He added 1 catch for 2 yards.
Playoffs 13 for 58 plus 6 for 76 receiving.
Every other game, 5 plus.
So in those 6 games, he had 90 rushes for 349 yards and 15 catches for 165 yards. If you take out that Miami game, the number would look even better, but the point is that you don't have to. Even his bad games weren't bad. He looked really good almost every single game he played. There's not many backs who do that.
That's not to say they are going to give him 300 plus carries or 60 plus catches. I would think 1250 rushing, 400 receiving and 8 touchdowns is a pretty reasonable projection. That's low end rb1 numbers, maybe high end rb1. There are a lot of backs who could put up those kinds of numbers, and he does have some risk, which makes him a third round type of player, maybe a bit earlier or later. I like him a lot more as my rb2 than rb1. But I like him, and holy cow is he fun to watch.
Going out on a limb here a bit, but I'm thinking maybe it doesn't work for you because of wishful thinking- perhaps you own Singletary in fantasy?
For starters, it isn't true that they literally had no other RB on the team worth a carry. They had TJ Yeldon, signed Taiwan Jones in free agency prior to the draft, and preseason darling Christian Wade. Not a murderers row for sure, but the bench wasn't completely empty behind Singletary.
More importantly, the Bills have their eyes on winning the division-doesn't seem likely that they would spend a 3rd round pick just for depth at what is widely considered one of the most replaceable positions. Even more unusual would be trying to trade up for merely depth at that position. If that's all they wanted, they could have just re-signed Gore, or any number of cheap veteran free agents.
Again, doesn't mean Singletary won't end up the workhorse, but it seems pretty obvious to me that they want Moss to be involved quite a bit.
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I'm not saying it was all because of fresh legs obviously, but how can you dismiss it as a factor? That game vs. Washington where he started getting a much bigger share was week 9 of the NFL- he only had 20 carries on the season prior to that while defenses had been beaten up for half the season already. He didn't hit 100 carries on the season until week 14.
He may reach it, but 1650 total yards and 8 TDs is not a pretty reasonable projection IMO. That's the same number of yards and 2 more TD's than he and Gore had last year combined.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Well, he had 20 carries for 172 yards and another 9 catches for 58 yards in his first 4 games prior to the game you said started his "fresh legs" momentum, and then he got 20 carries for 95 yards and 3 catches for 45 against washington. If that was just fresh legs, then you would expect his per attempt metrics to improve against those worn down defenses, not his number of attempts.
But it wasn't just carry volume. His next game was 8 for 42, then 15 for 75, then 21 for 106 - all 5 ypc or just slightly more. Which means his first 4 games he averaged 8.6 yards per carry on 5 carries per game, and his next 4 he averaged 5.0 on 16 carries per game. That looks like a pretty natural progression to me.
But then he finished his season with 5 straight games against quality teams - Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England and Houston. These may have been tired defenses, but they were hardly pushovers, and four of those games were on the road.
80 carries for 443 yards, 18 catches for 157 yards. He averaged 120 total yards per game.
I am one of the first to be skeptical of the second half stud, but I don't see anything but a good player who played well all season long.
That is completely empty.
A 29 year old English rugby player.
A 32 year old kick returner, who the GM said was not part of the RB picture.
And TJ Yeldon on the last year of his contract.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Yeah, I think it’s pretty fair to describe it as empty. Yeldon was a total afterthought last year for good reason, Wade won’t even make the team again, and Taiwan Jones is pretty clearly nothing more than a special teamer.
I do think the Bills prefer to use a committee, but I also think that they really really like Singletary and view him as their clear #1 barring Moss showing something truly special.
For starters, I explicitly said that it wasn't all because of fresh legs. Fresh legs doesn't mean your per attempt metrics have to improve, it simply means that you are fresher than your opponents at the time, which gives you an advantage. Has nothing to do with progression, how many attempts or yards he got in what games, or who those opponents were.
I saw a good player who played well all season long as well. I also don't ignore the fact that he had fresh legs while doing so.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Even if Moss shows something truly special (unlikely but possible) it's just a 50/50 split at worst because Singletary has already shown something special. With no OTAs this year I put the odds of that happening even lower than normal.
I'm confident Singletary is getting 70% of the snaps this year.
Watching tape of singletary linked above, and based on why I saw from him last year when I watched the games, I can tell you that I literally wipe my #### with any score he got on athleticism that grades him out poorly. Singletary’s vision, speed, creativeness, balance, receiving prowess, And general football IQ are off the charts. He makes defenders look silly. He always creates extra yards. He’s got that “it” factor that you want to see in an NFL rb. He’s going to be very good for a very long time in this league. Sure, Miss can carve out a role. But we are looking at singletary being the majority of a time share with miss spelling him and maybe culturing a few GL touches. I think the bills know what they have in singletary. Draft status be damned. Draft is over. Pierre thomas was undrafted but the saints quickly realized what they had with him.
Singletary continues to be undervalued and is getting into buy low territory with all this negative camp fluff.
LOL nothing sneaky about it. Any trade partner paying attention would know what you're up to.
Widbil83
Footballguy
Yeah, I think it's clear that it's going to be a full on committee and Moss is getting a lot of hype, but positives for Singletary:
- he was great in his rookie year and why would Buffalo go away from that, unless they are stupid or Moss is SO GOOD it's undeniable (which I think I very unlikely)
- Singletary doesn't need 300 touches to be effective (and neither does Moss)
- Singletary can actually get better too (we forget this about a lot of players)
- yes they drafted Moss, but they had to draft a RB since they had basically nothing on the depth chart.
- it's training camp. Let's see what happens when the bright lights are on. Singletary has already shown he's good.
- Buffalo's offense will be run-centric and can support two fantasy backs at a RB2 type level.
The only people who should be concerned as Singletary owners are people who thought he would be a workhorse, which should have been no one. Yes his ceiling is a bit capped due to lack of TD upside, Moss's involvement, but he's still a RB2 with some upside. That's valuable in a position that is pretty rough for supply and demand.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I got him for Brady (my QB4) in a superflex. I’m still high on him. He’s a playmaking talent & will get some points consistently.
redraft I like him anywhere 6 or later.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
the second half of this video shows me everything I need to know (in the first half, he's mostly running through gaping holes, which is also a plus, but...).
I'm all in.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Try this one too (made before they drafted moss).
https://youtu.be/Q-G8reC5mXM
Focuses on the motor part of his game.
Milkman
Footballguy
Dude is a stud. I love the projection at the end. That's right where I have him finishing as well.
