RB De’Von Achane, MIA (1 Viewer)

[da_budman]

I heard the other day that the perfect lineup this past week contained FOUR dolphins. That is almost staistically impossible...yet it happened.

Let’s not confuse possibility-impossibility with likelihood. You are referring to the likelihood.

I’ve never sat at a poker table that had a bad beat jackpot awarded despite logging many hours in a casino. Yet I’ve seen it happen at other tables plenty. It’s not likely to happen on any given hand but it’s statistically possible on any given hand. That’s a big difference.

I heard the other day that the perfect lineup this past week contained FOUR dolphins. That is almost staistically impossible...yet it happened.

Let’s not confuse possibility-impossibility with likelihood. You are referring to the likelihood.

I’ve never sat at a poker table that had a bad beat jackpot awarded despite logging many hours in a casino. Yet I’ve seen it happen at other tables plenty. It’s not likely to happen on any given hand but it’s statistically possible on any given hand. That’s a big difference.

Seriously? You feel the need to comment so badly that you feel the need to explain to me the difference between possible/impossible which is a binary situation and likelihood (that Ive never heard as a technical term in all my math classes as opposed to probability that I have become quite familiar with over the years). Of course one could probably calculate those odds which becomes quite cumbersome in this instance because the variables are immense. OR couldnt we stick with something being ALMOST STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE and realize that means the same thing.... not impossible but statistically unlikely? Just like one teams runningbacks COULD score over 100 FF points in a week 1/2 pt ppr but it is ALMOST statistically impossible. but yet totally possible but highly unlikely....(unless you are playing the hapless Broncos and you are the Miami dolphins of course)

 

[EWV1]

He has Matt Asiata feel about him.

The 230 pound plodder that ran a 4.77 40 and didn't even get drafted? Great comp.

You don't see it?

I don't post here as much as most, but I do SEE more trolling than I ever remember. What's the point of your post?

Well. I'm old. I've been an active member to fantasy football message boards for decades. I will say that not all are the same. Some are super strict. Some are super aggressive. Some are quite volatile. I found this one quite refreshing. Open opinions. Open ideas. If you think it has too many trolls you need to get out more. Ha ha. My point was just being silly. Dude just hit 200 yards at an 11 yard a carry clip displaying blazing speed. Who is the slowest plodding rb you can think of? Mine was Asiata. It was a joke. Obviously a bad joke to you. My bad. You called me a troll? Hilarious. My intention was being silly in the narrative conversation of a player thread. I apologize to you and also the Asiata family.

What value does such a stupid comment add to the forum? Get your jollies elsewhere. No one laughed, and TBH, all it does is spark up a side discussion like the one we're having. Again, what's the point?

Creating a laugh.

 

[Jamesinaz]

All I know is - I feel I must start him next week. I accept that this game was a one off and he still splits time with Mostert. I figure he will get maybe 10 handoffs and 5 targets which he can turn into a nice RB2 level floor. I'm in.

If he has several bad weeks I'll reevaluate.

I am stuck figuring out who to start and sit but that's a good problem.

 

[Todem]

Barring both being healthy:

If they both go off….no one will beat us.

If Achane is hot he will be lead dog that game. If Mostert….then it’s him.

Bottom line is, in this offense there is enough to go around.

But ideally if things are going well it’s a 50/50 split. If not…hot hand will eat more that day. And of course both could not be hot or a team gets a good lead on us…but both are totally viable as pass catchers….and they lined up in some packages together.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

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I compared him to Dunn, might be short changing him
-Everything felt different 20 years ago, yes/no?
What I would be sipping, eating and experiencing when I was in Santa Monica/LA at the time...dang!

And yes I am calling Portis 2.0 right now, when is the last time you have seen this kind of impact from a Rookie RB?
4 Touchdowns!!! 4 Touchdowns!!! 4 Touchdowns!!! 4 Touchdowns!!!

I’m an Achane bus driver but really hope you’re not comparing his style of play to Portis. Impact, perhaps, hope so, but certainly not style of play.

Today reminded me of games I might have seen when Priest Holmes, LT and Portis were going up against each other and you would see more multiple TD games
Guys like Shaun Alexander if you remember that guy.

I understand what you are saying but the speed factor isn't far off, think Achane might have run a 4.32?

Well I think Dalvin Cook a fairly close comparison to Portis, talking about prime seasons for both RB. I am sure you are familiar with him. I still prefer Portis, but yeah pretty close in my opinion.

What do you think about that?

And then comparing Archane to them?

I want to see more from Achane
I understand they aren't the same physically, my Warrick Dunn comparison is probably better
The 4-TD game vs Denver is one of the biggest I've seen since Portis was in a Denver uniform

 

[King of the Jungle]

If you have Mostert and Achane who do you start (with another stud at RB1)?

 

[Orange&Blue]

who is to target rest of season between Mostert and Archane?

 

[Todem]

who is to target rest of season between Mostert and Archane?

Either guy for redraft

Potent. Both of em.

 

[FarFromHome]

who is to target rest of season between Mostert and Archane?

If I knew I was getting a whole season of Mosert then it would be an easy choice for me. Tough call after Devon's explosion. Dude was fun to watch in that offense. For a million dollars, for one year give me Mosert I guess

 

[Faust]

fantasycalc

Suddenly De'Von Achane is up to the Dynasty RB12. He was RB32 before this week.

https://twitter.com/fantasycalc1/status/1706797202994295246?s=21

 

[LittlePhatty]

What value does such a stupid comment add to the forum? Get your jollies elsewhere. No one laughed, and TBH, all it does is spark up a side discussion like the one we're having. Again, what's the point?

I laughed at FarFromHome's obvious joke.
And I laughed again when that joke made you Google Matt Asiata's weight and 40 time from a decade ago.
Humor should be found everywhere, or else life is boring.

 

[coyote5]

He has Matt Asiata feel about him.

The 230 pound plodder that ran a 4.77 40 and didn't even get drafted? Great comp.

You don't see it?

I don't post here as much as most, but I do SEE more trolling than I ever remember. What's the point of your post?

Well. I'm old. I've been an active member to fantasy football message boards for decades. I will say that not all are the same. Some are super strict. Some are super aggressive. Some are quite volatile. I found this one quite refreshing. Open opinions. Open ideas. If you think it has too many trolls you need to get out more. Ha ha. My point was just being silly. Dude just hit 200 yards at an 11 yard a carry clip displaying blazing speed. Who is the slowest plodding rb you can think of? Mine was Asiata. It was a joke. Obviously a bad joke to you. My bad. You called me a troll? Hilarious. My intention was being silly in the narrative conversation of a player thread. I apologize to you and also the Asiata family.

What value does such a stupid comment add to the forum? Get your jollies elsewhere. No one laughed, and TBH, all it does is spark up a side discussion like the one we're having. Again, what's the point?

Man, you need to relax a bit it was harmless joke

 

[Gruden's Keyboard]

So with your guy's Matt Asiata comp. . . does that mean we should be expecting more TDs for Achane?

 

[Biabreakable]

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I compared him to Dunn, might be short changing him
-Everything felt different 20 years ago, yes/no?
What I would be sipping, eating and experiencing when I was in Santa Monica/LA at the time...dang!

And yes I am calling Portis 2.0 right now, when is the last time you have seen this kind of impact from a Rookie RB?
4 Touchdowns!!! 4 Touchdowns!!! 4 Touchdowns!!! 4 Touchdowns!!!

I’m an Achane bus driver but really hope you’re not comparing his style of play to Portis. Impact, perhaps, hope so, but certainly not style of play.

Today reminded me of games I might have seen when Priest Holmes, LT and Portis were going up against each other and you would see more multiple TD games
Guys like Shaun Alexander if you remember that guy.

I understand what you are saying but the speed factor isn't far off, think Achane might have run a 4.32?

Well I think Dalvin Cook a fairly close comparison to Portis, talking about prime seasons for both RB. I am sure you are familiar with him. I still prefer Portis, but yeah pretty close in my opinion.

What do you think about that?

And then comparing Archane to them?

I want to see more from Achane
I understand they aren't the same physically, my Warrick Dunn comparison is probably better
The 4-TD game vs Denver is one of the biggest I've seen since Portis was in a Denver uniform

Yeah I get it now. I spent awhile watching college cut ups of him the other day which was actually pretty fun rather than a chore that I find watching players to be some times, and I think I mention in a later post here some things I saw that I thought were similar between them. Specifically I think Achane has a slasher style of running the ball which is a combination of footwork, balance and shoulder fakes to make it hard for defenders to line them up, and often only get glancing contact on the edge of the RB as they are cutting away at the moment of contact. I see Achane doing that. Its a running style that I really like in a RB and what I look for. Although there are other styles RBs use that are effective as well. I think Portis was a bit smoother and more under control of his movements than Achane is, but its still a similar style to me. Other RB who I think have this style are Dalvin Cook, Terry Allen, Emmitt Smith, Roger Craig and probably another 20 or more RB who are well known but fit this archetype. I am just talking about RB off the top of my head and this is what I look for. Its a style I prefer a RB to have over being a power runner, or a glider, or a guy who changes direction a lot. Although I do like those things as well.

The shovel passes toss plays and other things might remind one of Portis as well. I recall there being quite a bit of that with Portis in Denver.

At the time Portis was drafted he was considered light for a RB as well at 204 lbs at the combine. Enough lighter RB have been successful that people might not get quite as bent out of shape about 204 lbs as they used to be but it wasn't that long ago that people were saying less than 210 lbs is too light. So it certainly was a knock against Portis then just as people have fussed about Achane being 188 now.

Achane is shorter than Portis was by 3-4 inches. Personally I think shorter is better, its a smaller target to hit and a shorter RB gets better leverage naturally vs defenders with out needing to lower their pad level as much. A shorter RB with good pad level can be really hard for defenders to bring down compared to a taller longer RB. So in that way he is more similar to Dunn.

Achanes timed speed is higher than Portis was at the combine. Although there are some reports of Portis really blazing I have seen before. Teams can measure this stuff any time during practice you know, they just dont usually share that information with the public. They are not limited to one event at one point of a players life. They know how these things can vary a lot from run to run as well. But anyhow Achane is extremely fast. Thats pretty obvious and I would guess a bit faster than Portis who was certainly fast as well.

Im really not sure who I would compare Achane to. He is different and unique. But sure I can see some traits and similarities between him and other players.

 

[Biabreakable]

I will give sone criticisms from what Ive seen though too.

He does not run with good pad level. He just gets plastered sone times and its not just because hes small. He does not use leverage to his advantage to gain yards after contact that Ive seen.

Somewhat related to this I dont think he has very good contact balance. I have not seen any spin moves which require good balance to execute.

Maybe he does some of these things on plays I have not seen yet. But yeah these are some things I think he could work on to get better.

 

[travdogg]

who is to target rest of season between Mostert and Archane?

Possible hot take, sell both. I think there are 3 ways this goes:

1. Its a very even RBBC, making it hard to know who to ever start, and its not impossible that Jeff Wilson mucks it up further.

2. Mostert gets hurt and Achane gets the job, though he's still probably not seeing 20 touches in most weeks.

3. Achane keeps hitting big plays and takes the job.

That's probably the order of likelihood for me.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

who is to target rest of season between Mostert and Archane?

Possible hot take, sell both. I think there are 3 ways this goes:

1. Its a very even RBBC, making it hard to know who to ever start

If this is really the highest-octane offense since The Greatest Show on Turf, then start either if you have them, and if you have both, play both depending on the rest of your roster.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Here's one to ponder...

Will he be the Rookie RB1 for 2023?

I am kind of thinking yes and I loved Bijan

 

[3nOut]

How many of you who own both have the confidence to start both every week? Or do you want the headache every week deciding who to start? I think this is a great 'sell high' situation. I'm just not sure what you can get in return for both (package deal).

 

[Smack Tripper]

How many of you who own both have the confidence to start both every week? Or do you want the headache every week deciding who to start? I think this is a great 'sell high' situation. I'm just not sure what you can get in return for both (package deal).

I think Waddle complicates that. I think Mostert is the play for now, starting this week with the Bills, and I am not rooting for Mostert to get hurt, but it does just seem inevitable.

Fins might do well to implement some load management for him to avoid that

 

[LawFitz]

I agree with whomever made the Chris Johnson comparison. I see a very similar player when I watch Achane. Deceptively strong between the tackles given the smaller stature, and not just blazing fast, but slippery in tight spaces. This will undoubtedly be an RBBC all year, but I have strong faith that Achane will get plenty of touches and fantasy points of his own. Jeff Wilson is a threat to Mostert's touches only IMO - Achane is an entirely different beast and this offense is tailor-made for him and vice versa.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

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Oh it's fun to watch the runs

 

[LawFitz]

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Oh it's fun to watch the runs

Most telling run for me was the first TD - one of several examples in that video of how he uses body lean and leverage to finish runs hard.

 

[FarFromHome]

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Oh it's fun to watch the runs

We know he has speed. What stuck out to me was his vision and his ability to get slippery. Dudes got the juice for sure. The question now becomes how much usage is a McDaniel gonna give him? What does Waddles return mean for him? They got so many fast cars in that garage and they can't put up 70 every week. Gonna be fun and as long as Tyreek gets his I'm cool.

 

[LawFitz]

Mike McDaniel +380 Coach of the Year
Devon Achane +980 Rookie of the Year

FYI

 

[icehouse]

Went for 79% of FAAB.

 

[Biabreakable]

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Oh it's fun to watch the runs

After watching this again just now I was to revisit some of criticism about Achanes pad level and balance.

I see several instances on these plays where he gets good pad level before the point of contact.

I also noticed one play where he spins out of contact showing good balance to do that.

Another play I see him getting low through the hole and using his free hand to keep his knee from touching the ground and keep moving forward. Another example of balance and pad level on this play.

I was not seeing things like this much watching the college cuts ups. But thats multiple examples from just one game that has me taking back that criticism.

 

[Hoh]

Curious who folks are starting him over. Sometimes in Dynasy (for me anyway) it’s hard to know when to trust the youth movement.

 

[VikingFrog]

Curious who folks are starting him over. Sometimes in Dynasy (for me anyway) it’s hard to know when to trust the youth movement.

Starting over

S Barkley
M Breida
G Edwards
K Miller
K Herbert

That’s probably not much help, because it’s an easy decision.

Yes. That is my running back room that is very happy to see Achane spring to life.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Curious who folks are starting him over. Sometimes in Dynasy (for me anyway) it’s hard to know when to trust the youth movement.

K Herbert and I Pacheco. Starting Achane along with CMC and Kyren.

 

[gump]

Curious who folks are starting him over. Sometimes in Dynasy (for me anyway) it’s hard to know when to trust the youth movement.

Considering him over Henry and Brob.

 

[ahartig]

Curious who folks are starting him over. Sometimes in Dynasy (for me anyway) it’s hard to know when to trust the youth movement.

Considering over Ford, Montgomery, Nico and Tutu, 0.5 PPR

 

[LawFitz]

Considering over Pickett in Superflex.

 

[need2know]

Maybe over mattison? He looked decent last week though and has a nice matchup.

 

[zamboni]

Curious who folks are starting him over. Sometimes in Dynasy (for me anyway) it’s hard to know when to trust the youth movement.

Starting him over Raplod White alongside Pollard and Etienne.

 

[efactor]

I'm starting him because i think he will do well and my other options at RB 2 are total crap. But I would bet there will be a heavy dose of FOMO for fantasy managers in the coming weeks that will influence their decision

 

[Barksdale]

Went for 79% of FAAB.

Seems steep unless someone's team is decimated at RB and desperate.

 

[icehouse]

Went for 79% of FAAB.

Seems steep unless someone's team is decimated at RB and desperate.

He has Henry, Moss, Mattison and Stevenson.

 

[Val Rannous]

I'm flexing Achane over J. Cook, D. Pierce, and CD Lamb at this point.

I currently have a fish on the line with a trade offer of Achane and Pierce for Diggs (he's desperate as a Chubb / Akers owner), but now I'm waffling after reading the last few pages on this board. Diggs would be nice, but a keeper next year of Achane might be better...

 

[Alex P Keaton]

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Oh it's fun to watch the runs

He’s really fun to watch. And that is also a terrible defense.

 

[Banger]

I'm flexing Achane over J. Cook, D. Pierce, and CD Lamb at this point.

I currently have a fish on the line with a trade offer of Achane and Pierce for Diggs (he's desperate as a Chubb / Akers owner), but now I'm waffling after reading the last few pages on this board. Diggs would be nice, but a keeper next year of Achane might be better...

Was thinking of making a similar move for Jacobs yesterday but the excitement of the unknown upside had me second guessing as well.

 

[FarFromHome]

In the end football is always gonna football. 8 carry game coming.

 

[Banger]

In the end football is always gonna football. 8 carry game coming.

Exactly. Has to happen. 8-27

 

[SoBeDad]

In the end football is always gonna football. 8 carry game coming.

If you add 4 receptions, that's enough to keep him relevant.

 

[FarFromHome]

In the end football is always gonna football. 8 carry game coming.

If you add 4 receptions, that's enough to keep him relevant.

Dudes so explosive u might be right here.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm flexing Achane over J. Cook, D. Pierce, and CD Lamb at this point.

I currently have a fish on the line with a trade offer of Achane and Pierce for Diggs (he's desperate as a Chubb / Akers owner), but now I'm waffling after reading the last few pages on this board. Diggs would be nice, but a keeper next year of Achane might be better...

Over Lamb? Why?

He looks great but this is pretty over the moon.

Diggs is great too. It would be hard for me to pass on that.

 

[FarFromHome]

I'm flexing Achane over J. Cook, D. Pierce, and CD Lamb at this point.

I currently have a fish on the line with a trade offer of Achane and Pierce for Diggs (he's desperate as a Chubb / Akers owner), but now I'm waffling after reading the last few pages on this board. Diggs would be nice, but a keeper next year of Achane might be better...

Over Lamb? Why?

He looks great but this is pretty over the moon.

Diggs is great too. It would be hard for me to pass on that.

Agreed. Maybe over Pierce. Maybe.

 

[zamboni]

In the end football is always gonna football. 8 carry game coming.

Exactly. Has to happen. 8-27

It might on the road this weekend in Buffalo, but all it takes is a couple big plays for him to make a fantasy day.

 

[packer_junkie]

Debating trading my G WIlson straight up for Achane in a redraft....

 

[Val Rannous]

I'm flexing Achane over J. Cook, D. Pierce, and CD Lamb at this point.

I currently have a fish on the line with a trade offer of Achane and Pierce for Diggs (he's desperate as a Chubb / Akers owner), but now I'm waffling after reading the last few pages on this board. Diggs would be nice, but a keeper next year of Achane might be better...

Over Lamb? Why?

He looks great but this is pretty over the moon.

Diggs is great too. It would be hard for me to pass on that.

I'd guess more for the matchup this weekend then any real analysis of the player values. I'm thinking Buffalo-Miami this weekend is going to be an absolute shootout, where Dallas-N.E. smells like a "Why throw when you can win by feeding the ball to Tony Pollard" sort of game. Right now I'm more torn between Cook or Achane to make certain I get a share of some of that juicy barn burner action. Part of why I was considering moving on Diggs was to get an even better share of Buffalo this week.

That said, after I do some actual analysis on who to start, it probably should be Lamb, who is obviously a quality player, and who I'd start most weeks. What's throwing me is that I know Achane will revert back to mean - nobody does 200+ and 4 every week. But right now, what the heck is Achane's mean? We've seen 1 actual game (nuts), plus college film (pretty damn good), plus know that Miami might be VERY special this year. Can Achane turn 12-15 touches a game in that offence into 70 and a touchdown a week average? Less? More? I just don't know yet, and guessing is why I'm leaning towards starting him - the situation is good, he's got massive potential, and we don't know what "regular week Achane" really look like yet.