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RB Ezekiel Elliott, LAC (2 Viewers)

barackdhouse said:
I think this is mostly correct. I think the difference could be far less than 6 points, though. Especially if you hit later on Jacquizz, West, DMC, or maybe a rookie that flashes early, like Hunt or Kamara. Early guess seems to be late 2nd/early 3rd for Zeke. I'd probably rather have Cooks or Baldwin, but there are a whole heap of players in that range that I'm not crazy about. Also, I have a lot of confidence in my drafting abilities as well as inseason management that I think I could weather the storm. 
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I just threw out a number.  The thing is, we all know we could find a gem that fills in but everyone is trying to find those same guys but we could also be starting a dud and searching waivers each week.  Hitting the waiver wire is much harder when you have a player taking up a spot at all times.  Makes it super hard when you like to keep a back up QB or TE.  Makes it even harder yet once bye weeks start too.

Drafting a suspended player not only affects your draft strategy but it affects the way you manage your team all season.  It can be done but make sure you know what you're in for.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I just threw out a number.  The thing is, we all know we could find a gem that fills in but everyone is trying to find those same guys but we could also be starting a dud and searching waivers each week.  Hitting the waiver wire is much harder when you have a player taking up a spot at all times.  Makes it super hard when you like to keep a back up QB or TE.  Makes it even harder yet once bye weeks start too.

Drafting a suspended player not only affects your draft strategy but it affects the way you manage your team all season.  It can be done but make sure you know what you're in for.
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Yeah that's all fair. I like my chances of finding other RBs on draft day, though. 

 
barackdhouse said:
Yeah that's all fair. I like my chances of finding other RBs on draft day, though. 
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I do like the idea of possibly having two top RBs on my roster going into the playoffs but I have to get there.  I get the temptation to do it, just not sure I'm willing to take that risk in my main league though.

 
I just started an MFL10 draft after posting above and got the 1.01. Took DJ and will update here on whether Zeke makes it to the 2/3 turn. And whether I pull the trigger. Haha.

 
pantherclub said:
What we are trying to explain to you here is that its a long way from Point A to Point B in your above scenario not to mention how far behind the 8 ball you could potentially be and the ground you would have to make up.
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And what I am trying to explain to you is that I disagree.  I don't win or lose leagues based on my first two rounds.  It is a 16-20 round draft and a year's worth of waiver wire plus weekly decisions to make.  A good in draft, plus good in season management can easily cover for a lost early pick, which isn't even what we are talking about here.  He is just lost for 6 (or 4) weeks. 

Now, the more I thought about this as I was driving home, the more I realized the incredible difference that 6 games is to 4 games.  I don't think losing him for the first four weeks is a big deal, before the bye weeks start.  However, when the byes start, then I can see there being less margin for error.  I can actually see adjusting the draft strategy if the 6 games stick by taking guys with early bye weeks off the table (or at least draft with caution) for the next several rounds.  For example, guys like Crowder, Marshawn, Mixon, and Ingram might not be guys I will want to draft because then I have two of my first several picks missing.

Normally, I don't worry about bye weeks in a draft except for best ball, but in this case, I might.  So in that way, I can see it changing strategy, and maybe that is not worth it since you start to limit your options, if he just misses four games, I don't care or worry about bye weeks at all.

 
Ilov80s said:
Zeroes? I'll start someone else in place of Zeke  or just trade him if I need to.
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Just like saying "zeroes" isn't meant to be literal, it's also not as simple as putting it in a vacuum and saying "I'll just plug in someone else". 

Yes, you will. But you will also alter your draft to do so...you will pick another Rb sooner and you will either pick them very high and the consequence will be instead of getting a top WR, you get a 2nd level WR that you have to live with all year, or you will get a guy in a mid round and the consequence will be key depth or TE, etc. 

Either way, this is about opportunity cost. No matter how you slice it, you have to replace that hole you create of a top 20 overall talent with someone and, just by the numbers, that replacement is not going to be as good (or they would have already been drafted and what you spend to hedge a bet at RB you absolutely lose your best choice at that particular time at TE, WR, etc. 

My point in this thread is I understand the allure of thinking how that week 14 dream team RB tandem or whatnot will look on paper but at some point you have to have a very good sense of if you can actually likely pull it off. Some people can in weak leagues or if they are great and astute players, etc but this is probably like buying a lotto ticket in that there is a small chance of cruising like a king with a homer and there is a much greater chance you cause yourself a lot more work and stress to manage a team and don't meet the goal.

It's a little like the big mistake people make in dynasty leagues: They get so wrapped up in "being a dynasty" that they are always going for homers and trying to have this team made up of all potential guys and "rising stars" and  26 year olds at all their positions and in the meantime, some guy that plugs along and picks up the Larry Fitzgerald, the Drew breed, etc, ends up winning the league. You have to win the year you are in, in dynasty, to become a "dynasty". In this case, you have to make the playoffs to sit back and enjoy that potential dream matchup.

I am sure some people will do this and it WILL work. Just law of averages. But there will be many who won't. The ones who succeed will crow and make it public and make it sound like it was so simple and everyone is dumb for not seeing how easy it was and that will artificially make others think this is a good idea but the reality is most will not make it work and then they have nothing to talk and crow about and the casual observer won't see all the data in the set. 

Just one guys opinion.

 
Shutout said:
Just like saying "zeroes" isn't meant to be literal, it's also not as simple as putting it in a vacuum and saying "I'll just plug in someone else". 

Yes, you will. But you will also alter your draft to do so...you will pick another Rb sooner and you will either pick them very high and the consequence will be instead of getting a top WR, you get a 2nd level WR that you have to live with all year, or you will get a guy in a mid round and the consequence will be key depth or TE, etc. 

Either way, this is about opportunity cost. No matter how you slice it, you have to replace that hole you create of a top 20 overall talent with someone and, just by the numbers, that replacement is not going to be as good (or they would have already been drafted and what you spend to hedge a bet at RB you absolutely lose your best choice at that particular time at TE, WR, etc. 

My point in this thread is I understand the allure of thinking how that week 14 dream team RB tandem or whatnot will look on paper but at some point you have to have a very good sense of if you can actually likely pull it off. Some people can in weak leagues or if they are great and astute players, etc but this is probably like buying a lotto ticket in that there is a small chance of cruising like a king with a homer and there is a much greater chance you cause yourself a lot more work and stress to manage a team and don't meet the goal.

It's a little like the big mistake people make in dynasty leagues: They get so wrapped up in "being a dynasty" that they are always going for homers and trying to have this team made up of all potential guys and "rising stars" and  26 year olds at all their positions and in the meantime, some guy that plugs along and picks up the Larry Fitzgerald, the Drew breed, etc, ends up winning the league. You have to win the year you are in, in dynasty, to become a "dynasty". In this case, you have to make the playoffs to sit back and enjoy that potential dream matchup.

I am sure some people will do this and it WILL work. Just law of averages. But there will be many who won't. The ones who succeed will crow and make it public and make it sound like it was so simple and everyone is dumb for not seeing how easy it was and that will artificially make others think this is a good idea but the reality is most will not make it work and then they have nothing to talk and crow about and the casual observer won't see all the data in the set. 

Just one guys opinion.
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perfect post, great actually

People will do this and succeed.  However in my years and years of experience with leagues and drafting I prefer not to be handicapped going into the season from the jump.  LIke he says you pick EE in the late first or 2nd and then you are altering your draft around one player.  In my experience that is a big no no.  Way too many negative factors for me to even consider him that high.  Way too many variables are at play that simply could work against you.

To the poster above who says trading him is an option I think that is a ridiculous concept.  Why draft him, sit on him and then trade him 4 or 5 weeks into the season?  That just seems like shooting yourself in the foot.

My concept is simple, dont draft injured players and dont draft suspended players.  Its that simple

 
Ditkaless Wonders said:
The number, and the length of the threads here would be evidence to the contrary.  That Pats fans have cropped up here to re-litigate their positions on Deflategate and to try to find some redemption or backing here would argue otherwise.  We see this differently.  No worries.  That is the beauty of sport and opinion.
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No one is re-litigating anything. Only pointing out that better lawyers than you have explained why a NFL commissioner with this type of power can easily go after your favorite team next.

http://www.stradleylaw.com/patriots-draft-picks/

"No evidence exists that Tom Brady or anyone from the Patriots wanted balls deflated outside of the ranges dictated by the rules.  None. Zero. Nothing in thousands of pages of documents or testimony or found anywhere in the known universe."

"As a NFL fan, I shouldn’t want a results-oriented punishment created because the rest of the owners were mad at the Patriots and thought they were insufficiently punished for Spygate. Because next time it could involve my favorite team and players."

 
Shutout said:
Just like saying "zeroes" isn't meant to be literal, it's also not as simple as putting it in a vacuum and saying "I'll just plug in someone else". 

Yes, you will. But you will also alter your draft to do so...you will pick another Rb sooner and you will either pick them very high and the consequence will be instead of getting a top WR, you get a 2nd level WR that you have to live with all year, or you will get a guy in a mid round and the consequence will be key depth or TE, etc.

I don't think I change my draft approach too much. Getting DJ or Bell allows one to kind of put off the RB2 position. I tend to avoid all the RBs in rd2-6 anyway. I would stick to my plan of taking someone like Jaquizz or West or Kelley to play early and start working to find a better RB on the WW or trade or hope some of my later round RB lottery tickets hit (guys like Jamaal Williams, CJ Prosise, etc). 

Either way, this is about opportunity cost. No matter how you slice it, you have to replace that hole you create of a top 20 overall talent with someone and, just by the numbers, that replacement is not going to be as good (or they would have already been drafted and what you spend to hedge a bet at RB you absolutely lose your best choice at that particular time at TE, WR, etc. 

Absolutely. I find myself generally not liking the value of the players at the 2/3 turn. I am not sure Baldwin is worth it there. I often find myself tempted to go Rodgers/Brady or Gronk there...which are kind of like f-it picks anyway. 

My point in this thread is I understand the allure of thinking how that week 14 dream team RB tandem or whatnot will look on paper but at some point you have to have a very good sense of if you can actually likely pull it off. Some people can in weak leagues or if they are great and astute players, etc but this is probably like buying a lotto ticket in that there is a small chance of cruising like a king with a homer and there is a much greater chance you cause yourself a lot more work and stress to manage a team and don't meet the goal.

The tougher and deeper the league, the more challenging this would be. However, there are always injuries/busts in the early rounds. As long as you drafted well later and work the WW, it is very easy to make-up for a loss of a pick at the end of the 2nd round. 

It's a little like the big mistake people make in dynasty leagues: They get so wrapped up in "being a dynasty" that they are always going for homers and trying to have this team made up of all potential guys and "rising stars" and  26 year olds at all their positions and in the meantime, some guy that plugs along and picks up the Larry Fitzgerald, the Drew breed, etc, ends up winning the league. You have to win the year you are in, in dynasty, to become a "dynasty". In this case, you have to make the playoffs to sit back and enjoy that potential dream matchup.

This I strongly agree with, but I think it's a totally separate issue. 

I am sure some people will do this and it WILL work. Just law of averages. But there will be many who won't. The ones who succeed will crow and make it public and make it sound like it was so simple and everyone is dumb for not seeing how easy it was and that will artificially make others think this is a good idea but the reality is most will not make it work and then they have nothing to talk and crow about and the casual observer won't see all the data in the set. 

It is without a doubt a risk. It's a calculated one because I think when Zeke is playing, he's going to be ranked as a top 5 RB option almost every week. Now, it's unlikely DJ and Zeke repeat their per game averages from last year but here is some context to what that combo provided last year. In standard, DJ + Zeke averaged 40.4 ppg. That was the equivalent of team starting Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton as their RBs in a 6 pt TD league. That is the equivalent of starting McCoy and Ajayi at RB and then having a special cheat code that lets you play DeMarco Murray at TE. DJ+Zeke = 3 Antonio Browns. Zeke alone is like drafting Doug Baldwin and then being allowed to multiple all Baldwin's fantasy points by 2. 

Just one guys opinion.

Same, I have missed on Josh Gordon and Arian Foster gambles so I will get burned from time to time. 
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barackdhouse said:
I just started an MFL10 draft after posting above and got the 1.01. Took DJ and will update here on whether Zeke makes it to the 2/3 turn. And whether I pull the trigger. Haha.
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Well I know that an MFL10 isn't the best to compare to a typical redraft, but Zeke just went at 1.11 so I guess I won't be able to test my strategy in this one.

 
Caesar said:
And what I am trying to explain to you is that I disagree.  I don't win or lose leagues based on my first two rounds.  It is a 16-20 round draft and a year's worth of waiver wire plus weekly decisions to make.  A good in draft, plus good in season management can easily cover for a lost early pick, which isn't even what we are talking about here.  He is just lost for 6 (or 4) weeks. 

Now, the more I thought about this as I was driving home, the more I realized the incredible difference that 6 games is to 4 games.  I don't think losing him for the first four weeks is a big deal, before the bye weeks start.  However, when the byes start, then I can see there being less margin for error.  I can actually see adjusting the draft strategy if the 6 games stick by taking guys with early bye weeks off the table (or at least draft with caution) for the next several rounds.  For example, guys like Crowder, Marshawn, Mixon, and Ingram might not be guys I will want to draft because then I have two of my first several picks missing.

Normally, I don't worry about bye weeks in a draft except for best ball, but in this case, I might.  So in that way, I can see it changing strategy, and maybe that is not worth it since you start to limit your options, if he just misses four games, I don't care or worry about bye weeks at all.
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i have the second spot so am going for bell, then zeke at end of round 2 if he is there.  then can draft jaq rodgers and terrance west late both of whom have late byes, and boom, no bye week issues with drafting zeke.  i draft on sunday and will pounce on this if i get the chance.

 
kutta said:
There is just no way Zeke lasts until the late second. Those hoping for a DJ/Bell-Zeke combo are dreaming.
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i got bell in the mid second last year.  :shrug:

someone may overvalue him in the early second...i wouldn't.  late second is about where i would feel comfortable pulling the trigger and will do so.  if someone does earlier, cool, ill just grab WRs like i was planning on.

 
kutta said:
There is just no way Zeke lasts until the late second. Those hoping for a DJ/Bell-Zeke combo are dreaming.
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It's going to happen somewhere. Pretty sure when there are 100,000 drafts someone is going to get the combo.

 
bagger said:
i got bell in the mid second last year.  :shrug:

someone may overvalue him in the early second...i wouldn't.  late second is about where i would feel comfortable pulling the trigger and will do so.  if someone does earlier, cool, ill just grab WRs like i was planning on.
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I'm drafting at 12, and there's no chance he makes it past me. If he makes it all the way to the end of the second, that's a travesty.

 
I just drafted Zeke at 2.03 in the Fantasy Championship high stakes tournament.  Went super RB heavy and young with both Cook, Mixon and Henry along with Zeke and Abdullah.  Definitely planning on starting 4 RBs.

 
kutta said:
I'm drafting at 12, and there's no chance he makes it past me. If he makes it all the way to the end of the second, that's a travesty.
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I find that fairly insane that you'd choose zeke over options at the 1/2 turn but good luck.

 
kutta said:
I think it's fairly insane if he drops to me at the 1/2 turn. But good luck.
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I wouldnt say that's insane. He's missing half the fantasy season and at that point there's still a lot of high impact players potentially available like Green, Nelson, Feeeman, Thomas, Howard, Gronk...I don't think Eliot gives you that much of an advantage over those guys. I'm not saying it would be craxy to take Elliot there either, but I'd probably just take sure production from those guys instead of having to start Quiz Rodgers, Terrence West or McFadden for six weeks putting you at a disadvantage there.

 
kutta said:
I'm drafting at 12, and there's no chance he makes it past me. If he makes it all the way to the end of the second, that's a travesty.
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Thats just dumb strategy there, there will be tons of guys you pass over that will produce.  Having your first round pick sit 6 games is just dumb dude, sorry no other way to say it.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I wouldnt say that's insane. He's missing half the fantasy season and at that point there's still a lot of high impact players potentially available like Green, Nelson, Feeeman, Thomas, Howard, Gronk...I don't think Eliot gives you that much of an advantage over those guys. I'm not saying it would be craxy to take Elliot there either, but I'd probably just take sure production from those guys instead of having to start Quiz Rodgers, Terrence West or McFadden for six weeks putting you at a disadvantage there.
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It all depends on the type of the league it is and what the playoff format is.  I still know a few guys who play in leagues where 8 of 12 teams make the playoffs, so you can go 6-7 or 5-8 and make the playoffs.  Taking Elliot in that situation in the 2nd round is a no-brainer, assuming you are a savvy enough owner to draft a good team the rest of the way and make good free agent pickups along the way. 

 
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Ghost Rider said:
It all depends on the type of the league it is and what the playoff format is.  I still know a few guys who play in leagues where 8 of 12 teams make the playoffs, so you can go 6-7 or 5-8 and make the playoffs.  Taking Elliot in that situation in the 2nd round is a no-brainer, assuming you are a savvy enough owner to draft a good team the rest of the way and make good free agent pickups along the way. 
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Sweet Jesus whats the point?

 
pantherclub said:
Sweet Jesus whats the point?
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I could not agree more. I give them crap for still playing in those kinds of leagues; I think they still play them because they are long-lasting leagues of like 15-20 years and it's an excuse for old friends to get together and play FF.  The first league I played in was like that, but in my last year there (it was a work league and I quit that job months later), I went 12-1 and lost in the first round to a 5-8 team. Never again! :lol:  

 
Ghost Rider said:
It all depends on the type of the league it is and what the playoff format is.  I still know a few guys who play in leagues where 8 of 12 teams make the playoffs, so you can go 6-7 or 5-8 and make the playoffs.  Taking Elliot in that situation in the 2nd round is a no-brainer, assuming you are a savvy enough owner to draft a good team the rest of the way and make good free agent pickups along the way. 
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Yeah if 8 of 12 teams made the playoffs then you should be able to survive Zeke's suspension fairly easily - but I do not think that's common. Honestly even if 6 of 12 make it it's not a terrible strategy, but as I said originally it's not like you would be taking Scrubs instead of him at the 1/2 turn.

 
Ilov80s said:
Don't ruin my dream. It's likely to get reduced to 4 or 5 in the next 2 weeks so i think you are right.
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Where is the talk of reduction coming from?   Makes no sense.  Seems the nfl has him dead to rights.  Since most drafts are coming up in the next 10 or so days you have to assume he is getting the full 6.  No thanks. Too risky.  

 
pantherclub said:
Where is the talk of reduction coming from?   Makes no sense.  Seems the nfl has him dead to rights.  Since most drafts are coming up in the next 10 or so days you have to assume he is getting the full 6.  No thanks. Too risky.  
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People are just assuming it will be since most players get their suspensions reduced.  Some think the league likes to make the suspension longer assuming that it will get appealed and reduced.  It's actually a not a bad assumption based on what we've seen.

 
pantherclub said:
Where is the talk of reduction coming from?   Makes no sense.  Seems the nfl has him dead to rights.  Since most drafts are coming up in the next 10 or so days you have to assume he is getting the full 6.  No thanks. Too risky.  
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Edited: I looked at a list and change my mind. It's not likely it is reduced. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
Yeah as @hawkeye21 said, most first time suspensions get reduced. Bell, Brady, etc. There is no guarantee, but there is a history of it happening. Zeke will have a hearing by Aug 25th so we should know around then and that is still prime draft season. 
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Brady's suspension got reduced? How did I miss that?

 
Ghost Rider said:
It all depends on the type of the league it is and what the playoff format is.  I still know a few guys who play in leagues where 8 of 12 teams make the playoffs, so you can go 6-7 or 5-8 and make the playoffs.  Taking Elliot in that situation in the 2nd round is a no-brainer, assuming you are a savvy enough owner to draft a good team the rest of the way and make good free agent pickups along the way. 
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Playoff format is big imo

In one of my local 12 team leagues 8 make the playoffs. I.might reach more for him in that one, but we don't draft until right before the season so I have time to let the appeals shake out 

 
According to the Dallas Morning News, the NFL still "could" investigate suspended RB Ezekiel Elliott's involvement in a July 16 bar brawl and "pursue further action" against him.

Elliott's current six-game ban was applied only because he violated the NFL's domestic violence policy. Elliott also violated the NFL's personal conduct policy by exposing a woman's breast on St. Patrick's Day, and the league's investigation into the July 16 bar brawl has yet to be resolved. It's a reminder that Elliott is far from out of the woods with multiple violations of multiple league polices and existing investigations still hanging over his head.

 
The Cowboys left side of the O line looked as bad as one could possibly look.  They didn't touch anyone on a couple plays, and when they did the LG had two quick holding calls.

 
Boone22 said:
According to the Dallas Morning News, the NFL still "could" investigate suspended RB Ezekiel Elliott's involvement in a July 16 bar brawl and "pursue further action" against him.

Elliott's current six-game ban was applied only because he violated the NFL's domestic violence policy. Elliott also violated the NFL's personal conduct policy by exposing a woman's breast on St. Patrick's Day, and the league's investigation into the July 16 bar brawl has yet to be resolved. It's a reminder that Elliott is far from out of the woods with multiple violations of multiple league polices and existing investigations still hanging over his head.
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In laymans terms.    Stay away.  

 
Boone22 said:
According to the Dallas Morning News, the NFL still "could" investigate suspended RB Ezekiel Elliott's involvement in a July 16 bar brawl and "pursue further action" against him.

Elliott's current six-game ban was applied only because he violated the NFL's domestic violence policy. Elliott also violated the NFL's personal conduct policy by exposing a woman's breast on St. Patrick's Day, and the league's investigation into the July 16 bar brawl has yet to be resolved. It's a reminder that Elliott is far from out of the woods with multiple violations of multiple league polices and existing investigations still hanging over his head.
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Report: NFL done looking into Zeke bar brawl

PFT's Mike Florio reports the NFL's investigation into suspended RB Ezekiel Elliott's involvement in a July 16 bar brawl is closed.

Elliott was subject to the league's personal conduct policy for allegedly breaking the nose of a DJ at a Dallas nightclub. The NFL looked into the case, but couldn't come to any conclusions. For now, it sounds like Elliott has avoided further suspension. Elliott is still facing potential discipline for his St. Patrick's Day incident.

_____________________________________

Not sure who to believe here...

 
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