Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, as a wise man once said, that ****’s outta control.
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RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter rockaction
- Start date
Typically in short yardage situations there are 8 men fronts (4 DT, 1 MLB, 1 flex LB, 2 safety for 4-3 or 3 DT, 1 MLB, 1 flex LB, 2 safety, 1 nickel for 3-4).
To not have a lead blocker vs 8 men front in short yardage offers Daniels flexibility to audible out of the run.
He can take it himself or dump it off to Ekeler/Rodriguez or both TEs. In that situation the Commanders are using 12 men personel (two TE sets).
Absolute mess. BRob had the "between the 20s" and "goaline" back role, he was a TD dependant flex due to no breakaway speed.
Now that "goaline" back role is handed to Rodriguez.
Which leaves Merritt the "between the 20s" role. But Merritt does not have breakaway speed. I'd invest if he has Achane speed. But he doesn't. So what does that leave us?
Truly unfortunate because I love the Commanders offense. They will score a ton this year.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Although JCM is not a classic blazer, he has plenty of speed and gives them the best chance a chunk plays. His ability to cut and stop/start gives him an opportunity at openings that the other backs cannot create. He did clock a 4.45, so he is by no means slow.
Willie Mays Hayes
Footballguy
He was fun when he was a sleeper but taking him in the 2nd round of a rookie draft is no longer sleeper status.
My guess is your league mates are confused by the "Bill reference" because they aren't in the shark pool....haha
ericttspikes
Footballguy
2022 Dameon Pierce vibes. Dude took Pierce #1 in my dynasty league that year. Opportunity is there for JCM, but not sure how good he really is. Worth a flyer in re-draft for sure, but tough a current price. Skeptical in dynasty due to age and draft capital.
FiredMartz
Footballguy
Reminds me of who my write in pick on the draft board was in 2005 ( no sticker made) ....FWP....Fast Willie Parker....Championship !!!!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BRob to the 49ers for a 6th, per Adam Schefter.
JCM will be a 1st round pick now judging by the recent momentum.
JCM will be a 1st round pick now judging by the recent momentum.
cheese
Footballguy
I see Ekeler in more of the Perine, recepetion thief (3rd and long, 2 minute) role than in a Gibbs role. If you honestly believe Ekeler is getting a Gibbs role in that offense, just pick Ekeler 2 rounds ahead of ADP in every draft and print money.
The best comp to me is last year's Chase Brown. Late round pick on a loaded offense with a lot of buzz that he is dusting the slugs around him. But to be clear, he should be drafted as LAST YEAR's Chase Brown (hadn't ever actually done it) rather than this year's CB price.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
WAS will add someone, but cannot ask for much more for a rookie long shot.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Just saw this and obviously you posted before the trade this morning but I did assume BR was gone one way or another already so no change really.
But I do like seeing Deebo and Daniels in this list because it highlights an area I'll admit as a blind spot til now. *No matter what* happens in the WAS backfield, Deebo and Daniels each have a non-zero impact on touches.
I'm more worried about Rodriguez AND McNichols than I am about Ekeler, whose role I do think will be exactly the same as whatever it was going to be. Which is to say a 3rd down back that will get a few carries. I think they want JCM to be the main early down guy and the between the 20s guy as the quote above says. That's the best role I can think of for a committee back leader in *this* backfield. And what I mean by that is that I don't see Ekeler as a 3rd down back that they envision taking over primary duties again unless it's an emergency/playoff situation. An example of a 3rd down back that could take over a backfield might be Tahj Brooks in Cincy or Woody Marks in Houston or as a vet, the winner between the R White/Tucker backup role.
But I think when you have someone as good as Ekeler in that role, you let the rookie develop by focusing on the running game first. Sure they'll involve him between the 20s in the passing game, but as an early down guy who is presumably a capable receiver, he would maintain the upside of potentially taking over more of the 3rd down/2 minute role if something happens to Ekeler.
So anyway the obvious takeaway is less TD upside if he isn't the goal line guy and if he isn't getting a ton of receptions then the value is capped. Well, yeah. That's on par with my expectations for a 9th round or so RB. And if he is any good he will still break a few to the house. And when they say goalline, that doesn't mean Rodrigues comes in when it's 1st and goal from the 6. And if he is any good he might take over that role as well. Who knows.
But Rodriguez looks pretty good and the prospect of WAS making more moves remains. I even think McNichols is underrated.
I can't say to the moon yet because now that the BR trade has materialized I can see the ADP is beyond where I'm comfortable. Earlier we chatted about 9th being too rich for you but we live in a different world now.
I'm 100% with you on your point, but I actually think the draft capital question should yield a different take away in the first place and that it should actually help Bill's argument for being drafted (relatively) high in FF. For 2025 anyway.
If you're a 7th round NFL pick and you earn your way onto the roster and into the rotation as possibly the starter and or major contributor (and presumably forced the hand to move BR).... then the lack of draft capital actually screams much louder that this guy is the real deal. Because you have to be to do that. 2nd round rookies make it thru cuts regardless of how ****ty they are. 7th rounders ONLY make it if they are real.
ponchsox
Footballguy
I’ve heard reports where the Commanders had a really nice pre-draft visit with JCM in Washington. Not only did they like his workout, but they liked his character. I’m thinking the 7th round draft capital was more him being off other teams draft boards because he didn’t play in college last year. If this was a low-score, random 7th round pick, I’d be a lot less excited about him breaking out.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I mean Daniels was their leading rusher last year IIRC.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FBG Home League #2, I took him at 13.05
he went in league 3 at 12.09
League Uno - 14.11 (Uno gets best value)
League 4 - 12.03
Sleeper has JCM projected for 2.94 FF points week 1
he went in league 3 at 12.09
League Uno - 14.11 (Uno gets best value)
League 4 - 12.03
Sleeper has JCM projected for 2.94 FF points week 1
-OZ-
Footballguy
Not sure I see the real difference.
They didn’t see enough to make them not risk losing out on him for 4 of their picks or to trade up for him.
He might be great, certainly wouldn’t be the first time a late pick worked out. But they couldn’t have been that enamored.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
He went in a similar spot in my home League last night. Mid-12th I think. That's a perfect time to grab a lottery ticket.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Greetings Ponch, nice post
-I do want to point out there are 31 other teams that could have scooped him up and I understand Washington was maybe more focused on him
Still they let him sit there until the 7th round...if they were in love with him i would think maybe the 5th woulda been a good time to pull the trigger?
Huge risk letting sit out there until the 7th and assume you know more than these other 31 teams or that none of them had any interest in him
I have a hard time digesting that Washington was that far ahead of the NFL on him
I still feel like Washington will bring in a RB that is released from another team and we see RBBC for a lot of the season
I could be dead wrong but I'm not quite there hitching my wagon to this guy
dipandglide
Footballguy
I traded my only dynasty share for Marvin Mims in a deep start/roster league. I couldn't get anything better and want to take any profit I can.
I'm not falling for an older, R7, non-pass-catching back profile. You guys can have him in start 'em leagues. Best ball is a different story.
I'm not falling for an older, R7, non-pass-catching back profile. You guys can have him in start 'em leagues. Best ball is a different story.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Who said he can't catch? Yes he might have only had 40 catches during this college career (but averaged over 10 yards per catch) and 2 Tds, but I've read nothing that he struggled with drops.
(HULK)
(Smash)
So, I think the pendulum has swung pretty far. And the team isn't going to run him 20 times in Week 1, they're going to mix him in. You'll probably get him cheaper around week 3 or 4.
I think by mid-season, this backfield is his, ceding some 3rd down work to Eckler/McNichols. He will be startable at that point IMO and it will carry through for the season, barring injury.
I think by mid-season, this backfield is his, ceding some 3rd down work to Eckler/McNichols. He will be startable at that point IMO and it will carry through for the season, barring injury.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Ekeler is on the team. That rules out any third-down pass-catching role in the short term. Do you think JCM has bellcow potential?
Redraft is whatever. I'd rather target other RBs as my RB3 and RB4. You trade these RB profiles away in dynasty the moment a trade window opens. Package multiple pieces for an upgrade or gain some draft capital and free up a roster spot for a different backup RB (or QB in SFlex). Do you miss out on some players? Sure. But you end up profiting more often than not, I'll play the odds.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Brian Robinson had 25 targets (caught 20 of them) last year. So Bill will get some passes as this coaching staff doesn't want to be transparent and only pass to Ekler. I'm going to guess he'll have around 40-50 targets this year because he's a much more explosive back in space than Robinson ever was.
dipandglide
Footballguy
25 targets! That sounds like a league winner. JCM will be lucky to have a career anything close to Brob's.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
That's a pretty low bar you are setting for Mr. Bill. In time I believe he will prove you oh so wrong.
dipandglide
Footballguy
We shall see. Good luck!That's a pretty low bar you are setting for Mr. Bill. In time I believe he will prove you oh so wrong.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I am very high on Mr. Bill and own him in 13 leagues (10 dynasty and 3 redraft) but I won't be starting him in ANY leagues come week 1. I wouldn't recommend anyone start him until we see how quickly he takes the lead...but his time is coming, the opportunity is there and defenses will have a lot to focus on between Daniels, Terry, Deebo, and Ertz. I think he'll find plenty of space and room to run wild. 
Marauder
Footballguy
I think you're reading too much into it. This was a very deep RB class. A lot of players fell further than expected. I don't think Wash was alone in liking him. I remember reading about multiple teams that brought him in for a visit in the weeks before the draft (I'm too lazy to search but I think Miami was one of them). I suspect that a lot of teams liked him but he was an older prospect who didn't play his final year in college and wasn't invited to the combine, which severely limited the information they had on him. Teams had a lot of RB choices on day 3 so most of them probably decided to go for the guys they were more familiar with. The 7th round draft capital doesn't concern me at all.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Shades of Alfred Morris a few years ago. Priest Holmes is maybe a bit of a stretch but you never know. All I want to know is where is the right spot to take him tomorrow in my long time home league.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I loved Alfred Morris but I do think his magical rookie year was as much as Shanny/RG3 as it was his skills. He fell off pretty quickly after that. And Bill is way more explosive and a far better athlete than Alfred was. But yeah, to get great production out of a late round pick that's where they are similar (assuming Bill is what we think he'll be)
Ilov80s
Footballguy
If JCM has a lot of success this year, it will likely also be very much because of the space Jayden Daniels creates with the threat of the run. Alfred Morris had 1600/13, 1300/7 and 1200/8 his first 3 seasons. If JCM has one single season like that than he's a home run of a 7th round pick. You are definitely right that JCM is twice the athlete Alfred Morris was. No doubt about it.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Why would they bring in another RB? They got rid of Robinson because they had too many.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I have a feeling they got rid of Robinson because he was inefficient and not explosive. I would surprised if they did not bring someone else in after cuts.
Ask everyone who Bill is before the draft. If they answer correctly you better take him in the 1st round. If they have no idea what you are talking about you can take him with your last pick. There really is no in between
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I have a question for dynasty purposes, when was the last time a 6 or 7 round rb hit and lasted for more than a year or two? Arian Foster?
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Terrell Davis, Bo Jackson, Foster, Mike Anderson, Alfred Morris, and Pacheco is on his way I think...
Marauder
Footballguy
Pacheco?
socrates
Footballguy
You don't have to look far. Austin Ekeler was undrafted.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Jamal Anderson pops in my head. That was awhile ago.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I don't count Bo since that was weird , Morris is a good call and I am not so sure Pacheco yet.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Great call
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Gettin a little over the top here.
JCM looks pretty good. We have no idea how he’s gonna perform when it counts. We don’t know the quality of his pass pro. At this time, assuming McLauren comes back, we have no idea what the distribution of pass/run will be.
Was just listening to 95.7 on the way back from the store and they had a WAS beat guy on (didn’t catch his name) and he was cautiously optimistic, but for FF purposes saw this as “a backfield to avoid” because of the distribution. Said the only RB with a well defined role is Ekeler, and the rest is likely situational, and also dependent on “hot hand”.
I’d been getting excited for my share as well, but imma pump the brakes a little on my enthusiasm. Just sayin, imma hold off on Priest Holmes comps for the moment. It’s possible that just maybe JCM Doesnt deliver a FF bonanza.
That said, if anyone in my league inquires about acquiring him, he’s absolutely the next Priest Holmes, and I shall accept no less than 2 firsts for him.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
It will be a distribution of totes until it is not. Someone will grab the reigns and the staff will provide more opportunities for that individual. JCM has a chance, but he is a rookie that has not played real football for a year (outside of looking good in camp and preseason).
FarFromHome
Footballguy
This. We don't know how this plays out. I honestly don't think they really know how it's gonna play out. Washington is gonna adjust as Jayden moves the ball. It's all about Jayden. This guy they call Bill could have 25 carries or 2 in week one. All rosters are obviously different but having to start Bill or Rodriquez week one is just not ideal.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It could also be that it’s a committee, which recent history seems to support.
Some coaches don’t give a **** about my FF team and that’s some bull****, man.
he passes the eye ball test for me and apparently has all camp long for many others....but somebody once said, don't listen to what teams say.....watch what they do....Bill is really the only difference between this backfield from last year......I think the willingness to trade away their "starting" RB....(define starting as you feel appropriate) ...."says" a lot when it was something they "did"....and I think it is because of Bill...
sometimes and especially these days with every little detail of information available for even novice FF players or players that don't really pay attention until the day before the draft....you have to reach a little early for guys that have league winning upside....back in the day, a guy like this would be considered someone you could sit on and a wait and almost guarantee you get him as a late round possible steal....because you were probably the biggest FF slut in the room....now those days are kinda over....everyone has access to risers and fallers and sleepers and steals...so to me that means if you truly think a guy has league winning upside.....all the crazy bananas type stuff in here about it being "way too high" to take him or whatever....man I don't know....you gotta plant your flags a little more then you used too....I think dude is legit and in a great situation and I like the message WAS is sending with what they have "done"...I'll reach a little...
sometimes and especially these days with every little detail of information available for even novice FF players or players that don't really pay attention until the day before the draft....you have to reach a little early for guys that have league winning upside....back in the day, a guy like this would be considered someone you could sit on and a wait and almost guarantee you get him as a late round possible steal....because you were probably the biggest FF slut in the room....now those days are kinda over....everyone has access to risers and fallers and sleepers and steals...so to me that means if you truly think a guy has league winning upside.....all the crazy bananas type stuff in here about it being "way too high" to take him or whatever....man I don't know....you gotta plant your flags a little more then you used too....I think dude is legit and in a great situation and I like the message WAS is sending with what they have "done"...I'll reach a little...
