RB Javonte Williams, DAL (8 Viewers)

[RaidersAreOne]

He gone.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

It's almost unbelievable what he and Pierce achieved in their rookie years watching them now. They're both broke. I wouldn't be surprised if both get another shot on another team next season, and maybe a change of scenery is exactly what they need, but I think the problem is mental at this point and I'm not sure you can repair a mindset as easily as you can a ligament.

Pierce has got another year on his rookie contract, likely going to be stuck backing up Mixon again for 2025

Only about 200K dead cap if they cut Pierce before the start of next season. I don't see him being a Texan in 2025, he can't stay healthy and looks to be a shell of his former self. They save 1.1M in base salary if they dump him before the season.

 

[Uncle Leo]

He gone.

Was he cut?

 

[The Frankman]

It's almost unbelievable what he and Pierce achieved in their rookie years watching them now. They're both broke. I wouldn't be surprised if both get another shot on another team next season, and maybe a change of scenery is exactly what they need, but I think the problem is mental at this point and I'm not sure you can repair a mindset as easily as you can a ligament.

I think it's more likely we're seeing how razor thin the margin is in the NFL between special and ordinary. A guy that looks great loses 2% of what he had and at the most elite levels of competition it's a death knell.

Add to the fact that Javonte has always had vision issues (never seems to hit the right hole/runs into the backs of his O-Line a lot) and it's not a great combo to have. He's still the teams best pass protector and should rotate a ton with McLaughlin, but he may never get his starting role back with the Broncos barring injury/Estime fumbling.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

It's almost unbelievable what he and Pierce achieved in their rookie years watching them now. They're both broke. I wouldn't be surprised if both get another shot on another team next season, and maybe a change of scenery is exactly what they need, but I think the problem is mental at this point and I'm not sure you can repair a mindset as easily as you can a ligament.

I think it's more likely we're seeing how razor thin the margin is in the NFL between special and ordinary. A guy that looks great loses 2% of what he had and at the most elite levels of competition it's a death knell.

Add to the fact that Javonte has always had vision issues (never seems to hit the right hole/runs into the backs of his O-Line a lot) and it's not a great combo to have. He's still the teams best pass protector and should rotate a ton with McLaughlin, but he may never get his starting role back with the Broncos barring injury/Estime fumbling.

I'm down on Javonte, and there is a lot to attack about the current version of the player, but "lacks vision" is something I've never really heard mentioned about him. I would say he's tentative and non-committal right now which leads to holes closing and what you may be seeing, but he's always had plus vision that showed up in college and also in the NFL pre-injury.

 

[shadrap]

unless your a Barry Sanders you need some sort of hole at the start of a run. Denver OL does not block well at all.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

unless your a Barry Sanders you need some sort of hole at the start of a run. Denver OL does not block well at all.

They aren't terrible run blockers, it's probably their strength. Williams and McLaughlin aren't hitting the holes with any conviction whatsoever. They look tentative. For all of Estime's faults, he's running through holes with reckless abandon. I like this about him but he's limited by a lack of any real speed. Still, the way he's running without fear reminds of me Williams his rookie year. I don't see Estime as anything special, but right now, he's the best they've got. I hope Badie can get right, neck/back injuries of this significance are no joke. If he can get back on the field though, he still has a chance at this job. Of all the running backs that have played this season, Badie is the only one that has looked special. I have no idea why they haven't taken a look at Watson.

 

[JohnnyU]

RBs have a shorter shelf life Kwik Trip generic hamburger buns.

 

[Broncobiv]

For redraft purposes, do you drop Javonte to pick up Estime?

 

[BlackCrowes]

For redraft purposes, do you drop Javonte to pick up Estime?

i am

 

[JoeJoe88]

RBs have a shorter shelf life Kwik Trip generic hamburger buns.

I don’t know, this year has been a sort of renaissance for the aging running back in a way. King Henry, Saquon, Kamara, Conner and Mixon are all top-10 RBs right now.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

 

[eighsse2]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

I'm not the poster you're replying to, and I don't have data, but I do think I agree with his opinion here. I guess I'm basing that on the observation of so many instances where a backup RB has had to take over for an injured starter, and did exactly as well or better than the starter typically does (ypa). That leaves out things like pass blocking, or maybe the backup got to shine in a game against a terrible run defense, or maybe the defense naturally says "they're having to turn to their backup RB, let's shift focus from 50-50 to 60-40 against the pass". And, do I just conveniently not remember all the times a backup RB has had to step into the starting role, and crashes and burns?

I don't know, but for now my belief is that they are mostly all similar in ability, though a certain few have rare traits that are not replaceable.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

I'm not the poster you're replying to, and I don't have data, but I do think I agree with his opinion here. I guess I'm basing that on the observation of so many instances where a backup RB has had to take over for an injured starter, and did exactly as well or better than the starter typically does (ypa). That leaves out things like pass blocking, or maybe the backup got to shine in a game against a terrible run defense, or maybe the defense naturally says "they're having to turn to their backup RB, let's shift focus from 50-50 to 60-40 against the pass". And, do I just conveniently not remember all the times a backup RB has had to step into the starting role, and crashes and burns?

I don't know, but for now my belief is that they are mostly all similar in ability, though a certain few have rare traits that are not replaceable.

It seems to me the claim could be empirically proven with a study of the past 25 seasons or so.

However, I don’t get how one could claim how RBs are a “dime a dozen” and yet also not interchangeable between a starter and backup role.

 

[JohnnyU]

RBs have a shorter shelf life Kwik Trip generic hamburger buns.

I don’t know, this year has been a sort of renaissance for the aging running back in a way. King Henry, Saquon, Kamara, Conner and Mixon are all top-10 RBs right now.

There has always been exceptions, but overall, they don't last as long in their peak as we would like and never have.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

Data on something that did not happen? I have a brain, and I have been following the NFL for 35 years, does that count? I suppose I could go back and look at every trade ever made during the season and see...

 

[icehouse]

For redraft purposes, do you drop Javonte to pick up Estime?

Someone just did in my league.

 

[zamboni]

For redraft purposes, do you drop Javonte to pick up Estime?

Someone just did in my league.

I have a similar move on the books to be determined in a few hours, but probably won't get him due to being too far down in the pecking order.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

Data on something that did not happen? I have a brain, and I have been following the NFL for 35 years, does that count? I suppose I could go back and look at every trade ever made during the season and see...

I’m not following your point. I don’t know how RBs can be a dime a dozen yet backups don’t tend to become starters.

Regarding watching the NFL for 35 years. So what? If a pattern exists, then it can be demonstrated with data.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

Data on something that did not happen? I have a brain, and I have been following the NFL for 35 years, does that count? I suppose I could go back and look at every trade ever made during the season and see...

I’m not following your point. I don’t know how RBs can be a dime a dozen yet backups don’t tend to become starters.

Regarding watching the NFL for 35 years. So what? If a pattern exists, then it can be demonstrated with data.

What i said was rarely do we see a team trade a backup RB to another team mid-season and that player becomes that RB1 on the new team. Marshawn Lynch comes to mind as one example of it happening, but that is all I can remember. I was responding to someone's post that was mentioning that they hoped he would be traded, which I am assuming because he would then have value on his new team. My point was that this rarely happens. If you do not agree that most RBs are interchangeable, then that is ok. I never said a backup RB could not become a starter, in fact, that happens quite a bit.

 

[Birdie048]

Marshawn Lynch
Corey Dillon
Adrian Peterson
Hershel Walker

Not sure they apply, but names that could fit the discussion

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Marshawn Lynch
Corey Dillon
Adrian Peterson
Hershel Walker

Not sure they apply, but names that could fit the discussion

Peterson is a good one for sure. He was behind Kamara and Ingram in New Orleans when he got traded to ARI. Dillon was an offseason trade and Walker was a starter in DAL when he was traded.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

Data on something that did not happen? I have a brain, and I have been following the NFL for 35 years, does that count? I suppose I could go back and look at every trade ever made during the season and see...

I’m not following your point. I don’t know how RBs can be a dime a dozen yet backups don’t tend to become starters.

Regarding watching the NFL for 35 years. So what? If a pattern exists, then it can be demonstrated with data.

What i said was rarely do we see a team trade a backup RB to another team mid-season and that player becomes that RB1 on the new team. Marshawn Lynch comes to mind as one example of it happening, but that is all I can remember. I was responding to someone's post that was mentioning that they hoped he would be traded, which I am assuming because he would then have value on his new team. My point was that this rarely happens. If you do not agree that most RBs are interchangeable, then that is ok. I never said a backup RB could not become a starter, in fact, that happens quite a bit.

I don’t agree that most RBs are interchangeable. I guess we could debate the definition of most. I think there is a distribution curve and some are clearly better by some measure.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

Data on something that did not happen? I have a brain, and I have been following the NFL for 35 years, does that count? I suppose I could go back and look at every trade ever made during the season and see...

I’m not following your point. I don’t know how RBs can be a dime a dozen yet backups don’t tend to become starters.

Regarding watching the NFL for 35 years. So what? If a pattern exists, then it can be demonstrated with data.

What i said was rarely do we see a team trade a backup RB to another team mid-season and that player becomes that RB1 on the new team. Marshawn Lynch comes to mind as one example of it happening, but that is all I can remember. I was responding to someone's post that was mentioning that they hoped he would be traded, which I am assuming because he would then have value on his new team. My point was that this rarely happens. If you do not agree that most RBs are interchangeable, then that is ok. I never said a backup RB could not become a starter, in fact, that happens quite a bit.

I don’t agree that most RBs are interchangeable. I guess we could debate the definition of most. I think there is a distribution curve and some are clearly better by some measure.

Fair enough. We can agree to disagree. Have a fantastic day!

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

Data on something that did not happen? I have a brain, and I have been following the NFL for 35 years, does that count? I suppose I could go back and look at every trade ever made during the season and see...

I’m not following your point. I don’t know how RBs can be a dime a dozen yet backups don’t tend to become starters.

Regarding watching the NFL for 35 years. So what? If a pattern exists, then it can be demonstrated with data.

What i said was rarely do we see a team trade a backup RB to another team mid-season and that player becomes that RB1 on the new team. Marshawn Lynch comes to mind as one example of it happening, but that is all I can remember. I was responding to someone's post that was mentioning that they hoped he would be traded, which I am assuming because he would then have value on his new team. My point was that this rarely happens. If you do not agree that most RBs are interchangeable, then that is ok. I never said a backup RB could not become a starter, in fact, that happens quite a bit.

I don’t agree that most RBs are interchangeable. I guess we could debate the definition of most. I think there is a distribution curve and some are clearly better by some measure.

Fair enough. We can agree to disagree. Have a fantastic day!

I asked ChatGPT…

Marshawn Lynch (2010): The Buffalo Bills traded Lynch to the Seattle Seahawks, where he became their starting back and a key player in their Super Bowl win.

Jerome Bettis (1996): Bettis was traded from the Rams to the Steelers, where he went on to have a Hall of Fame career as Pittsburgh's primary running back.

Christian McCaffrey (2022): McCaffrey was traded from the Carolina Panthers to the San Francisco 49ers. He immediately became the starting running back and one of their top offensive weapons.

…by the way, I’m not here to win arguments. I’m hear to gain perspective. I think this return frames your statement about the rarity of mid-season trades. I’d say you are mostly correct. With this small sample size, I’d say it happens about once a decade.

 

[Chaka]

For redraft purposes, do you drop Javonte to pick up Estime?

i am

I did.

 

[Chaka]

Please someone trade for Javonte. Get him off the Broncos.

Trade deadline passed, he's there for the duration.

Oh man, it was last week. No idea how I missed that. I thought it was this week. Must have slept through all the hype and chatter.

For the most part RBs are a dime-a-dozen. A team is not going to trade for another team's backup RB unless it is purely for depth (Herbert/Akers/etc.). Rarely, if ever, do we see one teams backup RB get traded to a team where he becomes the RB1.

Do you have the data to backup that claim?

Data on something that did not happen? I have a brain, and I have been following the NFL for 35 years, does that count? I suppose I could go back and look at every trade ever made during the season and see...

I’m not following your point. I don’t know how RBs can be a dime a dozen yet backups don’t tend to become starters.

Regarding watching the NFL for 35 years. So what? If a pattern exists, then it can be demonstrated with data.

What i said was rarely do we see a team trade a backup RB to another team mid-season and that player becomes that RB1 on the new team. Marshawn Lynch comes to mind as one example of it happening, but that is all I can remember. I was responding to someone's post that was mentioning that they hoped he would be traded, which I am assuming because he would then have value on his new team. My point was that this rarely happens. If you do not agree that most RBs are interchangeable, then that is ok. I never said a backup RB could not become a starter, in fact, that happens quite a bit.

I don’t agree that most RBs are interchangeable. I guess we could debate the definition of most. I think there is a distribution curve and some are clearly better by some measure.

Fair enough. We can agree to disagree. Have a fantastic day!

I asked ChatGPT…

Marshawn Lynch (2010): The Buffalo Bills traded Lynch to the Seattle Seahawks, where he became their starting back and a key player in their Super Bowl win.

Jerome Bettis (1996): Bettis was traded from the Rams to the Steelers, where he went on to have a Hall of Fame career as Pittsburgh's primary running back.

Christian McCaffrey (2022): McCaffrey was traded from the Carolina Panthers to the San Francisco 49ers. He immediately became the starting running back and one of their top offensive weapons.

…by the way, I’m not here to win arguments. I’m hear to gain perspective. I think this return frames your statement about the rarity of mid-season trades. I’d say you are mostly correct. With this small sample size, I’d say it happens about once a decade.

Bettis was traded in the off-season.

Marshawn is the only one who was even arguably a backup RB at the time he was traded. Even then of the four games he played for the Bills that season, he started three of them. He was not seeing full time RB touches but he was starting.

 

[steelcityman]

So no more Javonte to Dallas talk, at least not until March maybe? Or would Jerry need Jeanty with their top 5 pick?

 

[Big Nate]

Since everyone is out now on Javonte watch him score a TD and have a decent game.

 

[zamboni]

Will probably hold onto Javonte one more week to see if the narrative isn't truly shifting to Estime or if the rookie fumbles the job away. Not much out there on waivers, so I don't want to spite drop Javonte if he gets a bigger role back.

 

[althouse]

Since everyone is out now on Javonte watch him score a TD and have a decent game.

Hope so. Last week was the first and only week he was below 50% in snap percentage.

Then again since I've still got him rostered he's going to get no carries and 15% of snaps...

 

[Wrigley]

For redraft purposes, do you drop Javonte to pick up Estime?

I did

 

[Stoneworker]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

 

[zamboni]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

 

[Stoneworker]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

 

[Lansdowne]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Agreed. In a crucial divisional matchup with the Chiefs, the Broncos held their own against them. Held the lead for the majority of the game. Ran the ball 23 times total and Williams was tasked with only 1 carry, in the 1st quarter.

In the Broncos’ final drive when they needed to get into field goal range, Estime accounted for all six of their rush attempts. Game on the line, potential season-altering win on the line, and Payton entrusted it to the rookie with ball security issues. That deserves notice.

 

[zamboni]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

I think Javonte's snap count will remain high because he is a plus blocker and that will keep him on the field a lot to protect Nix. Not sure that will translate to carries/touches though.

Could be wrong though - this week should be very telling.

 

[JohnnyU]

He will pop up on another roster next year (UFA in 2025) and those who believe in him will once again show renewed optimism. Whether that is warranted is not for me to decide, but if this year is any indication, it is not promising. I was willing to give him a pass because of his past devastating injury, hoping two years removed from it would bear fruit, but obviously it hasn't. It's the ole' if it looks like a duck thing.

 

[Chaka]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

 

[Stoneworker]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

 

[Chaka]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

 

[MrJimiT]

For redraft purposes, do you drop Javonte to pick up Estime?

I did

I did as well. However Javonte was merely a bye week/injury fill in for me. He helped win me a game early on in the season. However I am posturing for playoffs now and decided to take a flyer on Estime getting goaline carries, etc.

 

[Stoneworker]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

All of my comments come from an NFL and Broncos fan perspective.

From a FF perspective, I would be doing the same as the masses and rolling the dice on an Estime lotto ticket in hopes the one data point is a harbinger of things to come.

But Sean Payton doesn't care about our FF teams, and so IMO doesn't view this as a binary choice. Instead he is ecstatic Estime is emerging which now gives him three solid skillsets to expand his beloved play-calling.

How exactly each RB gets utilized IMO will depend on game planning, game flow, hot hand, etc. But they will all be involved somehow.

 

[Big Nate]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

All of my comments come from an NFL and Broncos fan perspective.

From a FF perspective, I would be doing the same as the masses and rolling the dice on an Estime lotto ticket in hopes the one data point is a harbinger of things to come.

But Sean Payton doesn't care about our FF teams, and so IMO doesn't view this as a binary choice. Instead he is ecstatic Estime is emerging which now gives him three solid skillsets to expand his beloved play-calling.

How exactly each RB gets utilized IMO will depend on game planning, game flow, hot hand, etc. But they will all be involved somehow.

You are correct in that Payton doesn't care. Which is why we will all bench Javonte and he will somehow get 15 carries this next game. Then be benched the next game.

It is not good and we just have to hope Williams finds a new home next year.

 

[JohnnyU]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

All of my comments come from an NFL and Broncos fan perspective.

From a FF perspective, I would be doing the same as the masses and rolling the dice on an Estime lotto ticket in hopes the one data point is a harbinger of things to come.

But Sean Payton doesn't care about our FF teams, and so IMO doesn't view this as a binary choice. Instead he is ecstatic Estime is emerging which now gives him three solid skillsets to expand his beloved play-calling.

How exactly each RB gets utilized IMO will depend on game planning, game flow, hot hand, etc. But they will all be involved somehow.

You are correct in that Payton doesn't care. Which is why we will all bench Javonte and he will somehow get 15 carries this next game. Then be benched the next game.

It is not good and we just have to hope Williams finds a new home next year.

I'm not sure a new home will help him.

 

[Big Nate]

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

Earlier in the year when Tyler Badie threatened Javonte's job, JW went on a 4-game run of 5.1ypc, 3+ recpts and 85 total ypg.

The kid is as resilient as anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar uptick in productivity now that he's got a rookie breathing down his neck.

Fair point that sometimes a potential loss of job motivates players - seemed to have happened Javonte before and with Swift when Roschon was breathing down his neck.

The difference this time though is that the switch has already been flipped on Javonte. He's already lost the lion's share of touches to Estime and the opportunity to earn them back may have passed.

Possibly. But IMO last week's touch ratio is being massively overweighted and the snap count ratio underweighted.

If it was fait accompli that Javonte has already been put out to pasture, then he wouldn't have been in the game at all. 17 snaps is not nothing.

Plus, Estime got a carry on 54% of his snaps. That is completely unsustainable from a game planning standpoint.

So it's not clear at all that "the switch has already been flipped."

That's a very "glass is half full" way of looking at it. He won't be "put out to pasture" he still has value, particularly as a receiver and pass protector. While 17 snaps isn't nothing it is a season low 29% share. Jaleel McLaughlin saw a season low 7 snaps (12%) and Estime saw a season high 26 snaps which is a 45% share.

One data point does not a trend make but it should not be ignored.

Estime also out touched Jaleel & Javonte 14 to 5.

More interesting, to me, is Javonte didn't see an opportunity after halftime and Estime saw 11, including all the snaps on the "almost" game winning drive.

I am not sure which snap count ratio is being underweighted.

So what conclusions are you drawing from the one data point?

"All I'm trying to do, Mark, is help you understand that The Name of the Rose is merely a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory"

Nah, I don't really know what to think. The KC game was one data point, and it might be a simple outlier and Javonte goes back to a 50% snap count on Sunday. Another way to view it is within that data point there were multiple data points that all point to Estime, at least being a two down back going forward.

I have no idea which one is more likely but, fwiw, I dropped Javonte for Estime in my redraft league. Javonte was my #5 RB so I am not worried if he returns to what he has been so far this season.

All of my comments come from an NFL and Broncos fan perspective.

From a FF perspective, I would be doing the same as the masses and rolling the dice on an Estime lotto ticket in hopes the one data point is a harbinger of things to come.

But Sean Payton doesn't care about our FF teams, and so IMO doesn't view this as a binary choice. Instead he is ecstatic Estime is emerging which now gives him three solid skillsets to expand his beloved play-calling.

How exactly each RB gets utilized IMO will depend on game planning, game flow, hot hand, etc. But they will all be involved somehow.

You are correct in that Payton doesn't care. Which is why we will all bench Javonte and he will somehow get 15 carries this next game. Then be benched the next game.

It is not good and we just have to hope Williams finds a new home next year.

I'm not sure a new home will help him.

You could be right. But he is still only 24 and if I can get him cheap before he hits a new home I will try. Especially if I can flip him later if he goes somewhere else and the hype train starts. He did have a solid rookie season then year 2 blows his knee. All depends on what I can get him for but I would take another shot.

 

[Uncle Leo]

14.6 PPR points with 5 minutes left in the second quarter. Yeah, we were played. I benched him for Bijan’s backup.

 

[Harjiran]

Haha - it was all a ploy! Reports of Javonte's demise were exaggerated. So frustrating to own a share of this guy in 2 of 3 leagues. I have to say I'm not much of a fan of Sean Payton.

 

[Uncle Leo]

At this point I’m glad I didn’t drop him. I could have used him to cover Rachaad White’s bye.

 

[Harjiran]

But next week it might be 20 carries for Estime - how can you start Javonte with any confidence?