bostonfred
Footballguy
These things have a way of working themselves out.
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RB Jerick McKinnon, KC (3 Viewers)
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
So Shanahan brought McKinnon in to play in the Devonta Freeman role. He looked great all offseason last year before tearing his ACL. And now Shanahan, the same coach that had Coleman in the Coleman role in ATL, brings Coleman in. And McKinnon is toast?
OK.
OK.
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Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
You missed Matt breida putting up a 5.3 ypc making much less money. At best this is a 3 headed RBBC so yeah he's toast.
Posted this in Tevin Coleman thread but he's only making $3.6M this year and his contract is only $8.5M and not $10M. This just looks more and more like a value signing where Kyle saw value with a player he knows at a position they've deal with injuries. Won't be surprised if they cut Jet or not, but tend to think even more they won't.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Jet?
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
What percentage of RBs miss at least 25% of the season? I honestly don't know, but if I were to venture a guess, I'd say 1/3. What is the health history of Breida, McKinnon and Coleman specifically?
So lets say you a putting together a roster for the season, and you are flush with money under the cap. You are also coming off a season where your #1 RB missed the entire season, and the RB you went with missed all or most of 3 games, and has a reputation for consistently being dinged up. In FA a good RB you formerly coached becomes available and the price is modest. The commitment is 2 years. Do you sign him?
This may not be good for any of the three as far as their values in FF, but as far as the 49ers go, it makes a ton of sense to have all three.
So lets say you a putting together a roster for the season, and you are flush with money under the cap. You are also coming off a season where your #1 RB missed the entire season, and the RB you went with missed all or most of 3 games, and has a reputation for consistently being dinged up. In FA a good RB you formerly coached becomes available and the price is modest. The commitment is 2 years. Do you sign him?
This may not be good for any of the three as far as their values in FF, but as far as the 49ers go, it makes a ton of sense to have all three.
eNdblu
Footballguy
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Yes.Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
If Breida stays healthy it's going to be hard to keep him off the field. He's proven himself. McKinnon, not so much.
I thought Breida looked spectacular last year. He's a great rb. There is no way he isn't getting a good share of the carries this year.
Wow to the bolded. He is solid but I think the sharkpool is heavily overrating him. That SF backfield was plug and play production last year. Jeff Wilson was the worst one and he had some solid games. Mostert is a special teams guy, like their Brandon Bolden, and he was even getting off when they needed him.
It's the system.
It's an interesting thought on a guy "McKinnon" who really has never been a full rb in his entire career
cloppbeast
Footballguy
You could sleep on a McKinnon, but he's the best receiving back for a playcaller who likes to throw to his backs. Like Richard last season, McKinnon could have a low end RB2 season without anybody even noticing.
That's true but he probably isn't the best rb. It's a mess - i actually think that McKinnon would be best suited for 3rd down work and Coleman and Breida as the leads
But coleman and breida are both going to get catches because they are both excellent pass catching backs. Breida was also an excellent blocker last year
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
No doubt. Not that anybody should have entertained the pipe dream he could serve as a quality work horse, (sort of guilty) he is a useful piece of a committee. Put him in situations in space.
Problem from a fantasy perspective is that you take a shot on one and he sits on your bench all year or you use three spaces on your team for these three guys and they just split most of the year. It's a super headache unless you have a huge roster
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Breida is a terrible pass catcher. It's a cluster right now no matter how you look at it though.
efactor
Footballguy
Breida WAS a terrible pass catcher his rookie year. 6 drops
Much better last year and zero drops.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Breida caught 100% of catchable balls last year and graded out as one of PFF’s best RB pass catchers. If he would have stayed healthy people would be raving about him but now he’s viewed as 3rd string and can be had for a song. If I didn’t already own him every place from his time as a UDFA, I’d be buying.
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efactor
Footballguy
Kid can play. Wouldn't be surprised if he leads the team in rushing this year. I think McKinnon and Coleman will both be used heavily in the passing game, but Breida is a better pure runner than either of them, and as you stated, greatly improved as a receiver last year.
If everyone stays healthy, a mess fantasy wise, but a great situation from a real football standpoint. Lot of depth and big play ability
Tanner9919
Footballguy
dropped him in a dynasty ppr/rb league. dude can't stay healthy.he's too small to carry the load.he's a lesser T. Cohen who isn't all that great to begin with. Leading the Niners in rushing sounds good on paper, but it likely means he gets 700 rush yards, with McKinnon getting 600, and Coleman getting 500, and each catching about 25 balls
I don't see how Breida can handle the load. nice RB, talented, fast as heck. but too small, always hurt, and too many other mouths to feed
matuski
Footballguy
Breida missed 3 games last year.
Is there history before this for us to start labeling him as "always hurt"?
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I agree with you that I need more of a history to label guys as injury prone.
However if I recall he missed 3 games but left others injured, or wasn't effective because he was still injured.
MAC_32
Footballguy
No snark, have you watched him play? It's fun if you aren't invested, but whenever he gets the ball while you may not know how the play ends, you don't expect him to get up from it. I only write that with some hyperbole.
efactor
Footballguy
Well, he’s nothing like Cohen as he is a really good inside runner despite his size. Cohen is not.
He tried to play through the ankle injury last year, which was a mistake. They should have sat him but he wanted to play and since they had nobody else, Shanahan rolled him out there. He was “always hurt” because he never sat and recovered from the original injury.
I do agree, as I stated that if everyone stays healthy, it’s a fantasy mess as the carries will be spread out, although both Coleman and McKinnon will be heavily involved in the passing game. Contrary to some reports, I don’t see one of Breida, Coleman or McKinnon being inactive if all are healthy. Different types of players and from a team standpoint, having all 3 available will be a huge advantage. However, if Coleman or McKinnon get hurt, Brieda will be a solid pick up.
Also, l’ll take the over on both Coleman and McKinnon catching 25 balls each. Way over.
matuski
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
That's fair but I recall he played through injury (and was effective) in a few games where he wasn't expected to go at all but he stepped up like his job was on the line. Seemed like people were surprised he could go.
I still think this is a 1a 1b thing with McKinnon and Coleman, with Breida mixed in here and there.
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I feel like McKinnon might be the odd man out of the RB trio. Breida looked more electric than McKinnon ever has, and Coleman is solid and has more experience with Shanahan. With that said, I feel like any of the 3 has a reasonable chance of starting, and whoever is the last one drafted is a decent bench spot with upside.
I like McKinnon but who knows how this will break down. Both Brieda and Coleman have looked really good running in a Shanahan system. We haven't seen what McKinnon can do in that system yet, but Shanahan certainly put his money on McKinnon.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
According to Spotrak contract details, McKinnon was guaranteed close to 18 million compared to the 5.25 million Coleman was guaranteed in basically a 1 year deal (no guaranteed money after this year if cut by April 2020). You can certainly argue that Coleman was a bargain and McKinnon was overpaid, but the 49ers invested far more money into McKinnon than they did in Coleman.
jm192
Footballguy
I really like Coleman. He finished RB18 in PPR on ~200 touches.
It felt like the Falcons would never commit to the run. Their defense was devastated with injuries, so maybe that's most of that.
I think it's reasonable that the RB1 can get 12-15 touches and the others get 8-10. I think coming off an ACL, McKinnon is behind the 8 ball.
Even in that 1B role, Coleman has been useful in fantasy the last several years. He's being drafted as an RB3 in a lot of the mocks I've done--and I think he's safe to finish as an RB3 with RB2 upside.
It felt like the Falcons would never commit to the run. Their defense was devastated with injuries, so maybe that's most of that.
I think it's reasonable that the RB1 can get 12-15 touches and the others get 8-10. I think coming off an ACL, McKinnon is behind the 8 ball.
Even in that 1B role, Coleman has been useful in fantasy the last several years. He's being drafted as an RB3 in a lot of the mocks I've done--and I think he's safe to finish as an RB3 with RB2 upside.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I disagree with several of the current things that "conventional wisdom" says.
1. I'm staying away because none of them will be fantasy relevant.
This seems crazy to me. The Kyle Shanahan running back has been incredibly good. He's like Norv Turner with his history of producing rb1 seasons. Last year was an exception, but Breida and Mostert both looked awesome before getting hurt.
2. I'm staying away because there's 3 of them and who knows which one will be good every week.
Again, we have over a decade of history to work with. Shanahan hasn't used a 3 man committee... ever. And we're already hearing that he might leave one of them off the active roster on game days. That's consistent with everything he's done in the past, where he's had two man backfields with a clear rb1 emerging quickly.
3. I'm staying away because they're not that talented.
Shanahan has done a lot with later round guys.
3rd round Steve Slaton - 1600 yards and 10 touchdowns
Undrafted Arian foster had his career best with over 2200 yards and 18 touchdowns
Ryan torain had over 900 scrimmage yards and 6 tds in 10 games.
6th round slowpoke Alfred Morri had 1600 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Terrance west and Crowell had their best seasons with him in Cleveland, putting up 1400 combined yards and 13 touchdowns between them.
4th round rookie Devonta Freeman had under 500 total yards as a rookie, then had over 1600 and 14 touchdowns in his first year with Shanahan. He was the number one overall fantasy bavk the next year. Since Shanahan left he hasn't been the same.
Carlos hyde had 1288 total yards and 8 touchdowns setting career marks in both categories and also receptions.
And last year Matt breida had 1075 total yards and 5 touchdowns despite not starting week 1, missing 3 games and playing through a serious ankle injury.
Odds are good that he will get 1600 total yards out of someone in this backfield.
4. It's Coleman's job to lose.
Tevin Coleman was the rb2 in Atlanta under Shanahan. When Shanahan left he got a chance to start due to injury and wasn't particularly impressive. When he hit the free agent market he was expected to be a priority free agent but didn't get an immediate contract and signed for backup money with the 49ers. There's really nothing that indicates he's the starter.
5. Maybe it's breida's job to lose?
Maybe, but if recent reports are true and Shanahan plans to make one of these guys a healthy scratch, and the guy earning a boatload of money has his contract guaranteed week one, i wouldn't expect them to keep him through week one unless they planned on making him active on sundays. I can see them trading or cutting him, maybe, but either would be a surprise and if they don't cut him it would be an even bigger surprise to leave all that salary on the bench as a healthy scratch.
6. But McKinnon isn't that good
He had 4.8 and 5.2 ypc his first two years in Minnesota but those slipped into the 3s the next two years. Both those years the Vikings o line was weak and injured. Maybe McKinnon got worse, but it seems likely that some of the drop off was the line. Shanahan clearly liked what he saw on tape, signing him to a big contract and declaring that he'd be the center piece of the offense before he got hurt.
7. But the 49ers aren't that good a running team.
They had 1900 rushing yards last year despite earning the second overall pick and playing their third string quarterback. This offseason, they added a priority free agent on the offensive line and used a first round pick on another o lineman. They also added a big blocking wide receiver in Deebo, which is critical to Shanahan's offense.
People are sleeping on this situation because it seems messy. And right now it is - I'm not 100 percent sure McKinnon will be the guy, i just think he's the favorite right now. This should be a competition and probably will be.
But whoever starts for Shanahan - if they're available in the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds of drafts or even later in some of these best balls- that could be a league winning pick. For my money right now I'll take McKinnon but this is one of the situations I'm most interested in.
1. I'm staying away because none of them will be fantasy relevant.
This seems crazy to me. The Kyle Shanahan running back has been incredibly good. He's like Norv Turner with his history of producing rb1 seasons. Last year was an exception, but Breida and Mostert both looked awesome before getting hurt.
2. I'm staying away because there's 3 of them and who knows which one will be good every week.
Again, we have over a decade of history to work with. Shanahan hasn't used a 3 man committee... ever. And we're already hearing that he might leave one of them off the active roster on game days. That's consistent with everything he's done in the past, where he's had two man backfields with a clear rb1 emerging quickly.
3. I'm staying away because they're not that talented.
Shanahan has done a lot with later round guys.
3rd round Steve Slaton - 1600 yards and 10 touchdowns
Undrafted Arian foster had his career best with over 2200 yards and 18 touchdowns
Ryan torain had over 900 scrimmage yards and 6 tds in 10 games.
6th round slowpoke Alfred Morri had 1600 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Terrance west and Crowell had their best seasons with him in Cleveland, putting up 1400 combined yards and 13 touchdowns between them.
4th round rookie Devonta Freeman had under 500 total yards as a rookie, then had over 1600 and 14 touchdowns in his first year with Shanahan. He was the number one overall fantasy bavk the next year. Since Shanahan left he hasn't been the same.
Carlos hyde had 1288 total yards and 8 touchdowns setting career marks in both categories and also receptions.
And last year Matt breida had 1075 total yards and 5 touchdowns despite not starting week 1, missing 3 games and playing through a serious ankle injury.
Odds are good that he will get 1600 total yards out of someone in this backfield.
4. It's Coleman's job to lose.
Tevin Coleman was the rb2 in Atlanta under Shanahan. When Shanahan left he got a chance to start due to injury and wasn't particularly impressive. When he hit the free agent market he was expected to be a priority free agent but didn't get an immediate contract and signed for backup money with the 49ers. There's really nothing that indicates he's the starter.
5. Maybe it's breida's job to lose?
Maybe, but if recent reports are true and Shanahan plans to make one of these guys a healthy scratch, and the guy earning a boatload of money has his contract guaranteed week one, i wouldn't expect them to keep him through week one unless they planned on making him active on sundays. I can see them trading or cutting him, maybe, but either would be a surprise and if they don't cut him it would be an even bigger surprise to leave all that salary on the bench as a healthy scratch.
6. But McKinnon isn't that good
He had 4.8 and 5.2 ypc his first two years in Minnesota but those slipped into the 3s the next two years. Both those years the Vikings o line was weak and injured. Maybe McKinnon got worse, but it seems likely that some of the drop off was the line. Shanahan clearly liked what he saw on tape, signing him to a big contract and declaring that he'd be the center piece of the offense before he got hurt.
7. But the 49ers aren't that good a running team.
They had 1900 rushing yards last year despite earning the second overall pick and playing their third string quarterback. This offseason, they added a priority free agent on the offensive line and used a first round pick on another o lineman. They also added a big blocking wide receiver in Deebo, which is critical to Shanahan's offense.
People are sleeping on this situation because it seems messy. And right now it is - I'm not 100 percent sure McKinnon will be the guy, i just think he's the favorite right now. This should be a competition and probably will be.
But whoever starts for Shanahan - if they're available in the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds of drafts or even later in some of these best balls- that could be a league winning pick. For my money right now I'll take McKinnon but this is one of the situations I'm most interested in.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Good post. I think Coleman is more likely to be the guy, but McKinnon is enticing at his current price.
I am hoping this situation remains muddled as long as possible, mostly for the subscriber contest.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Have you ever seen any indication from Shanahan that he sees Coleman as a number one?
I can dig up plenty of quotes saying that McKinnon was the starter from last year. I can dig up more saying that he sees McKinnon and breida as 1-2 from before he signed Coleman. And I can find more saying that he had no intention of signing Coleman until he lingered in free agency and they decided he was too good a bargain at his price.
I can't remember ever seeing anything in Atlanta or San Francisco where Shanahan said anything about Coleman being a number one. I can remember positive words about his running and receiving, but not specifically about him being a starter caliber player.
Here's Shanahan specifically being asked about it after the Coleman signing. I don't have the audio with the actual question that was asked but i imagine it exists
https://247sports.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/Article/Tevin-Coleman-49ers-signing-Jerick-McKinnon-130117074/
I've seen him be effusive about all 3 players' talent, and seem unsure about how to use them all.
Have you seen any quote from Shanahan that referred to him as an NFL starter or a starter for the Falcons or 49ers?
I may be mistaken but I'm pretty sure Coleman was named the starter to begin the 2015 season (his rookie year). He got hurt in the 2nd game and Freeman came on strong and never gave the job up.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Coleman did start game #1 and #2, after having started games #3 and #4 of the preseason.
But Freeman did not play any preseason.
By Chris Wesseling Around the NFL Writer Published: Sept. 8, 2015 at 01:31 p.m.
The team's official depth chart lists third-round pick Tevin Coleman as the Week 1 starter over Devonta Freeman.
Coach Dan Quinn confirmed Tuesday, via the Atlanta Journal Constitution, that Coleman will draw the start.
Freeman was expected to enter the season atop the depth chart, but sat out all four preseason games with a hamstring injury. He conceded Monday that he expected Coleman to get the nod because the second-year back missed all of the game reps in August.
Seems as if the Coach wanted Freeman atop the chart, but not being available and not getting reps had him promote Coleman.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The nice thing about this in dynasty is that if you own McKinnon, Coleman is affordable.
And if you own Coleman, McKinnon is ~cheap.
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