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RB Joe Mixon, HOU (3 Viewers)

Aunt Jemima said:
I think you are missing the real risk, the risk is that he has an incident in the NFL and gets suspended. I don't care about the public perception of his past, I care about his ability to stay out of trouble and stay on the field in the NFL
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Right. So he is at a higher risk just given his past. I can agree with anyone on that. However, is he not worth a 4th round draft pick on an NFL team? And that being said, if he can get on the right team with good people around him, good opportunity, he can contribute well in his first year. I think he has RB2 status right out of the gate depending on where he lands. 

Hankmoody said:
Because no one but FF geeks care about a guy preparing for the draft in February.  Once mainstream fans and casual observers start paying attention that's going to change. 

You are changing your narrative.  You're talking about the impact on the guy's draft status but then citing what happens once he starts producing like a freak.  No one is claiming he won't get a chance in the NFL, or that he won't be successful once he does.  We're saying that his DRAFT STATUS is highly impacted.  There are a TON of teams that won't draft him at all.
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I would say at least 1/3 of the league would take a look at him. And at the end of the day all it takes is one team to fall in love with a player. 

Yeah, sure, his draft status is going to be impacted, I get it. I'm not debating that. I'm saying that the guy has significant value, especially for a guy who is going to slip in the draft. 

 
Dr. Brew said:
Right. So he is at a higher risk just given his past. I can agree with anyone on that. However, is he not worth a 4th round draft pick on an NFL team? And that being said, if he can get on the right team with good people around him, good opportunity, he can contribute well in his first year. I think he has RB2 status right out of the gate depending on where he lands. 

I would say at least 1/3 of the league would take a look at him. And at the end of the day all it takes is one team to fall in love with a player. 

Yeah, sure, his draft status is going to be impacted, I get it. I'm not debating that. I'm saying that the guy has significant value, especially for a guy who is going to slip in the draft. 
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So we pretty much all agree. High risk/reward.  I'll draft hI'm in the mid 2nd if he's around.  Don't think I'd take him with a 1st this year (mostly due to depth of the draft)

 
-OZ- said:
So we pretty much all agree. High risk/reward.  I'll draft hI'm in the mid 2nd if he's around.  Don't think I'd take him with a 1st this year (mostly due to depth of the draft)
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You will not be drafting him, then.

 
-OZ- said:
So we pretty much all agree. High risk/reward.  I'll draft hI'm in the mid 2nd if he's around.  Don't think I'd take him with a 1st this year (mostly due to depth of the draft)
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Obviously, I'm hitching my wagon to Mixon and am very high on him. So that explains where I'm coming from.

In a dynasty league I'm not sure I'd take any QB or WR over him. So then it comes down to the RB depth in this draft, which is super deep. That being the case, Mixon could end up being the 8-11th RB chosen in the NFL draft. Which would mean he could easily slide into round 2 of a rookie draft, where I'd be ready to pounce if I had the chance. 

Depending who drafts/signs him, I would consider looking at him at the end of round 1 or trying to see if I could wait and grab him round 2 also. 

 
Dr. Brew said:
Obviously, I'm hitching my wagon to Mixon and am very high on him. So that explains where I'm coming from.

In a dynasty league I'm not sure I'd take any QB or WR over him. So then it comes down to the RB depth in this draft, which is super deep. That being the case, Mixon could end up being the 8-11th RB chosen in the NFL draft. Which would mean he could easily slide into round 2 of a rookie draft, where I'd be ready to pounce if I had the chance. 

Depending who drafts/signs him, I would consider looking at him at the end of round 1 or trying to see if I could wait and grab him round 2 also. 
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We must play in very different leagues.  In mine, while cook and Fournette probably go top 2, there will be a couple TE, a handful of WR, and probably a QB or 2 taken before the 8th rb.  1-2 rb, 3-5 wr, 1-3 te start. We could pretty much lock in the top 4 now, order will depend on teams.  

 
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-OZ- said:
We must play in very different leagues.  In mine, while cook and Fournette probably go top 2, there will be a couple TE, a handful of WR, and probably a QB or 2 taken before the 8th rb.  1-2 rb, 3-5 wr, 1-3 te start. We could pretty much lock in the top 4 now, order will depend on teams.  
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I don't think any of the QBs are really going to amount to much aside from Trubisky. Unless I needed a QB I'd probably just avoid one this draft class. TE yes, there are a couple that could be big. WRs I don't really see any worth higher than some of these RBs. Maybe I'm not really in tune with the draft class or even dynasty tendencies. I tend to hold the opinion that WRs you can always find. Top TEs and RBs are hard to come by. 

 
Dr. Brew said:
That being the case, Mixon could end up being the 8-11th RB chosen in the NFL draft. Which would mean he could easily slide into round 2 of a rookie draft, where I'd be ready to pounce if I had the chance. 
 
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If Mixon is drafted and enters into any situation other than a few worst cases (Dallas, Zona, etc), then there's a near zero chance he gets to the 2nd round of any 12 team rookie drafts.  Even if he's the 8th-11th RB drafted, owners understand that draft positioning isn't indicative of talent.  And there's typically plenty of owners in every league with no problem rolling the dice on talent in the middle to late part of the 1st round.  Stated another way, if Mixon gets drafted (period) then he's not "easily sliding into round 2" of rookie drafts.

 
SayWhat? said:
If Mixon is drafted and enters into any situation other than a few worst cases (Dallas, Zona, etc), then there's a near zero chance he gets to the 2nd round of any 12 team rookie drafts.  Even if he's the 8th-11th RB drafted, owners understand that draft positioning isn't indicative of talent.  And there's typically plenty of owners in every league with no problem rolling the dice on talent in the middle to late part of the 1st round.  Stated another way, if Mixon gets drafted (period) then he's not "easily sliding into round 2" of rookie drafts.
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This is accurate.

And one of the issues at play with him, which is why I'm hesitant to draft him to high right now in a redraft or dynasty, is that if his transgressions cause him to drop in the draft he could be picked by a team as more of a value pick then need. This to me increases his chances of ending up in a spot like you identified.

 
I have a feeling he'll go 1.5-1.8 in most PPR dynasty drafts. I could see people taking him over McCaffrey if he lands in the right spot. 

 
CabinFever said:
I have a feeling he'll go 1.5-1.8 in most PPR dynasty drafts. I could see people taking him over McCaffrey if he lands in the right spot. 
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agree with this, I think Cook, fournette, Davis, Williams will be top 4 in the vast majority and then the debate on who is the 3rd rb is usually going to start at pick 5. Lots TBD yet but that is how I see it shaping up

 
steelers1080 said:
What will his value be if he's taken as a backup by a running team?  Like the Steelers, Cowboys, or Texans.
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2 out of those 3 I'd think he has a shot to be the starter in 2018 so I'd think not as big a drop as you might expect. For context people value Derrick Henry right now pretty highly an he's in somewhat comparable negative situation as some of those examples.

The long term situations with David Johnson and Elliot would be a different set of circumstances. I don't put Bell/Steelers in this mix because there is now a lot of doubt they will agree on a long term deal and I don't think they will franchise him next season, especially if they had Mixon. If he ends up in one of these situations  I would not look at him in first round but league roster size would make a decent sized deal in this equation. I mainly play in leagues with off-season rosters down to 14-16 position players so idea of holding him for long term payoff is not something I'd be jumping up to pay a first round pick on or likely even really high second. On the other hand he could end up as bargain insurance with long term stand alone potential for DJ or Elliot owner and I'd hate that. Talk about the rich getting richer.

 
-OZ- said:
We must play in very different leagues.  In mine, while cook and Fournette probably go top 2, there will be a couple TE, a handful of WR, and probably a QB or 2 taken before the 8th rb.  1-2 rb, 3-5 wr, 1-3 te start. We could pretty much lock in the top 4 now, order will depend on teams.  
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Same here. Top 3 in order are most likely Fournette #1. Cook & Davis next depending on the team they go too. Put Davis in BUF and I my look elsewhere. Not only do they suck but they are more likely to play in bad weather during the playoffs.

spider321 said:
If Mixon goes to Houston, I don't think he'd be the backup for very long.
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I own Miller and I would grab Mixon all day. I'm tired already of Miller looking for a place to fall down.

 
Talent wise, Mixon is on the same level as Fournette & Cook. If he gets drafted into a great situation I could even see him leapfrogging Davis & Williams and going 3rd in some leagues. So while I agree that 1.5-1.8 is probable, it would not at all shock me to see him go top 3. I could easily see a scenario where the owner picking 1.3 is set on Mixon and attempts to trade back but is unable to so stays put and grabs Mixon at that spot. 

 
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Lulz at people talking about waiting for late first or early second to catch him sliding. 

 
steelers1080 said:
Talent trumps all in the NFL.  Last year while Tyreek Hill was gashing opposing special teams and having 80 yard rushing TDs all the announcers and fans did was cheer and shower him with praise.  No one brought up how he shoved his pregnant girlfriend down some stairs.  There wasn't a video of that, so there might be a bit more indignation towards Mixon. But if he comes out and has a 1200 yard rushing season, no one will be talking about his past transgressions.

The main thing most teams are looking at is his risk of having another incident.

That said, he's a top 4 RB in this class and depending on what team he goes to, he could be worth the #2 pick.  
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So misguided.

 
spider321 said:
The Bungles' backfield is crowded enough already.
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Think so? I think Hill has shown that he is not lead back material. His 8 game stretch as a rookie was a long time ago. And the Bengals seem convinced Gio isn't a full-time starter, not to mention he won't be ready to start the season.

I'm just connecting dots with the Bengals saying they are going to draft a RB, and their well-publicised disregard for character concerns. But I'd be happy with Mixon there and think he would be the top back before long.

 
spider321 said:
The Bungles' backfield is crowded enough already.
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Hill had his chance and will be benched, Gio is a CoP back coming off a big knee injury. 100% the bengals are looking for a lead back in this draft.

 
He will get drafted.  But it wouldn't be by me if I had a team.  If an LT last year fell about 30 spots because he inhaled some smoke, this has to be like a 60+ pick drop. Like round 3. 

 
voiceofunreason said:
Well there's little question about his talent and no certainty he'll even get a chance to play because of the incident. So what else is there to discuss?
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I think if there were no off the field issues and he were a projected 1st round pick there would be a lot more talk about his talent and what the holes in his game are.  I think with the off the field stuff that gets brushed aside into "well yeah OK he's good but what about that video?" and the discussion about whether he's ACTUALLY that good gets lost in the shuffle (or in this case, never occurs).

I mean, I've seen less questions about this guy's actual running ability than Adrian Peterson had.  If there was a reasonably sized group of people that thought Adrian Peterson was not as good as he looked in college then there are certainly at least as many questions about Mixon, but the detraction is focused elsewhere instead.

How is his pass protection?  His ball security?  Is he really as good as his reputation or is he somewhat overrated from playing with a dominant line in college?

 
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Brunell4MVP said:
He will get drafted.  But it wouldn't be by me if I had a team.  If an LT last year fell about 30 spots because he inhaled some smoke, this has to be like a 60+ pick drop. Like round 3. 
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Tunsil dropped ~10 spots, but to be fair his stock was dropping a bit before the video leaked.  I think Mixon's stock will rise steadily from pro day to draft day.

 
BradtheAg said:
Tunsil dropped ~10 spots, but to be fair his stock was dropping a bit before the video leaked.  I think Mixon's stock will rise steadily from pro day to draft day.
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and it had a lot to do with the suddenness of it. it hit the internet right before the draft, leaving teams scrambling to make a decision on what it really meant.

 
Brunell4MVP said:
He will get drafted.  But it wouldn't be by me if I had a team.  If an LT last year fell about 30 spots because he inhaled some smoke, this has to be like a 60+ pick drop. Like round 3. 
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The fall in that case happened because it broke literally during the draft, as teams were putting in their picks. It was a mad scramble to figure out WTF was going on.

And didn't he only fall to the Dolphins?

 
Couldn't you make a case that, if as an organization, you've made the decision to give this guy a chance and deal with the resulting circus it will bring, then you should use a fairly significant pick on him? If he's a first round talent that makes it to the second round, why would you pass on him? He becomes BPA for all 32 teams. Taking him in the 2nd or the 7th, the stigma is the same for the team picking him. It's not like he has an injury that he may or may not come back fully from, or that he's expected to be suspended by the NFL for what he did. Yes, there's a chance he goes wild on a movie ticket taker 2 years from now, but there's second round (and first round) guys that have similar risk all the time. 

I say all that, to say this: if he falls past the 2nd round, I think there's a good chance that means he's not getting drafted at all (ala La'el Collins.) 

 
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ConnSKINS26 said:
The fall in that case happened because it broke literally during the draft, as teams were putting in their picks. It was a mad scramble to figure out WTF was going on.

And didn't he only fall to the Dolphins?
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He fell to pick 13 but was expected to be picked at -17.

 
For a data point:

In a 12 team PPR dynasty league with college developmental rosters, I traded John Ross III for Joe Mixon.

 
The Noid said:
Couldn't you make a case that, if as an organization, you've made the decision to give this guy a chance and deal with the resulting circus it will bring, then you should use a fairly significant pick on him? If he's a first round talent that makes it to the second round, why would you pass on him? He becomes BPA for all 32 teams. Taking him in the 2nd or the 7th, the stigma is the same for the team picking him. It's not like he has an injury that he may or may not come back fully from, or that he's expected to be suspended by the NFL for what he did. Yes, there's a chance he goes wild on a movie ticket taker 2 years from now, but there's second round (and first round) guys that have similar risk all the time. 

I say all that, to say this: if he falls past the 2nd round, I think there's a good chance that means he's not getting drafted at all (ala La'el Collins.) 
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Because there's more risk involved regardless of talent level.  He's going to get a lot more scrutiny under League Policy and, more importantly, he's going to get a much shorter leash publicly for most other "rookie mistakes".  Think of what McCoy went through last year and walked away clean - think Mixon's going to get any benefit of the doubt if he's involved in that?  That's not even counting the "is that who he truly is" or "has he not learned any real lesson" risk.  The team needs to be ready to cut bait with him immediately.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I think if there were no off the field issues and he were a projected 1st round pick there would be a lot more talk about his talent and what the holes in his game are.  I think with the off the field stuff that gets brushed aside into "well yeah OK he's good but what about that video?" and the discussion about whether he's ACTUALLY that good gets lost in the shuffle (or in this case, never occurs).

I mean, I've seen less questions about this guy's actual running ability than Adrian Peterson had.  If there was a reasonably sized group of people that thought Adrian Peterson was not as good as he looked in college then there are certainly at least as many questions about Mixon, but the detraction is focused elsewhere instead.

How is his pass protection?  His ball security?  Is he really as good as his reputation or is he somewhat overrated from playing with a dominant line in college?
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Talent wise I have no problem putting him right there with Cook, below Fournette. 

Not you but I don't understand how some people don't get it.  Nfl is a billion dollar business. It's not about him being mature enough to help a team. It's the potential loss of tens of millions of dollars in advertising money that will keep most teams from drafting him. And there's a huge difference when it was taped.  Otherwise it's one person's word against another and most fans don't even know about someone  like Hill.

 
Smith did fine in that segment. spider321 youbetter hope Smitty isn't on here reading your comment or he might come  :boxing:  you and you'll end up like this  :topcat:

;)

 
Tool said:
What's bad about his comments?
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It's called a self-inflicted wound, not a self-inflicting wound.

"Unexcusable" is not a word.

Plus, he is just not very well-spoken.

It probably does not bother most people, but imo, if you're going to be on tv/radio, have a solid grasp of the English language.

Jalen Rose bothers me for the same reason.

 
But you could make a list a mile long of professional broadcasters who are ex athletes who butcher the English language. And come on, nobody was as bad as Emmit  :lmao:

 
CabinFever said:
But you could make a list a mile long of professional broadcasters who are ex athletes who butcher the English language. And come on, nobody was as bad as Emmit  :lmao:
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lol

I acknowledged that Smurf is better than Emmitt.

Smurf is worse than most, though.

Surely, there is another job related to football that he would be good at. 

 
spider321 said:
It's called a self-inflicted wound, not a self-inflicting wound.

"Unexcusable" is not a word.

Plus, he is just not very well-spoken.

It probably does not bother most people, but imo, if you're going to be on tv/radio, have a solid grasp of the English language.

Jalen Rose bothers me for the same reason.
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Those are pretty minor things IMO. I thought his comments were spot on and thoughtful.

 
CabinFever said:
But you could make a list a mile long of professional broadcasters who are ex athletes who butcher the English language. And come on, nobody was as bad as Emmit  :lmao:
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jesus, that was uncomfortable to watch...Emmitt talking that is.

 
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He'd be great at the rookie symposium. "You guys sit in your seats, take notes, shut your mouths and if you miss your curfew or fall asleep during a presentation I'll cash you outside"  :boxing:

 
buck naked said:
I look forward to the day when we can discuss the fantasy and football potential of Joe Mixon without hearing the same, tired "he punched a woman" crap.
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I agree, it was crap that he punched a woman.  Or, that he is a piece of crap.  Your pick.  I guess both are accurate.

 
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