Not to mention that picks also don’t get injured or race in cars at 180mph or smash Dom bottles over peoples heads in nightclubs
Yes there are a lot of different angles to this.
When you consider that a RB who actually scores enough points to be useful for a fantasy season, the average number of seasons that they are is two. Its just very high turnover at the position and even the best ones cannot stay at this level for very long.
The majority of RB are not even useful for a full season, but only a few games of a season, if at all. See Cam Akers for example. A few games but never sustaining that production for a full season yet. Yes he still could, his career is not over yet, but I have seen enough that I think its unlikely he ever does provide a season of productive games for the remainder of his career. He is being replaced by Williams now.
As far as Williams, who knows how long or if he might be worth starting? Could be a few games or maybe longer than that, but the odds are against this. Best case scenario he becomes like Austin Eckler, which would be very valuable and certainly worth a 1st round pick if he does, thats just very unlikely.
I have come to the conclushion that if a RB can provide 9 or more start worthy games that is worth a 1st round pick. Others might disagree with this, but just being realistic about the high amount of turnover at the position, teams are always having to find new blood. Even high level RB like Todd Gurley just do not last that long playing at such a high level.
Players at other positions like WR or QB? Thats different. You can count on such players maintaining their value longer than a RB although that is no sure thing either. At least its safer, and you have better odds to get say 5 years of that player maintaining their value compared to 2 years from the RB position.
So this is the decision a dynasty manager has to make every time a RB like Williams comes along, is how long do you think they will be able to maintain their performance and what is that worth to you based on how your current team is constructed?
For a strong team built on a long term foundation of highly valuable WRs and QBs even one year of good RB production could push that team to the top, and I think that is worth a 1st round pick to acquire such a player for that purpose, even if that productivity does not last very long.
For a team that does not have a strong foundation like this I think you sell Williams for the best price you can get and try to convert the asset into a WR or something that can build the long term foundation of your team.
Yes there is always the chance that Williams becomes a long term multi season valuable asset. But that chance is slim, and from a process based perspective you want to be the seller here not the buyer.
