RB Kyren Williams, LAR (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Reading these comments, I am glad I don't play dynasty. It looks like the strategy is to hoard picks, then when those picks turn into points trade them for more picks, and sprinkle in some dog **** to make the deal seem sweeter

Do any of you actually enjoy winning fantasy football games and championships or is it all about hoarding picks?

eta: this hot take is not just based on this thread, it seems every dynasty talk I see is about cashing out guys who are scoring points today for future picks that may score points years down the road

Dude, you're spilling my strategy! Some people from my league could be here and figure it out.

I couldnt find Bozeman Bruisers original post here but its something I would like to respond to.

I think there is a lot of merit to this perspective of preferring players who are playing now and can potentially score points that can help your team win games now. Many managers in dynasty formats are perpetually chasing the future and not living in the present.

At the same time in dynasty rookie picks are the most fluid form of currency a manager can own because they are not tied to a specific asset, which will have more variable value depending on competitors priorities and current roster construction. Some of those teams may only be seeking players at one position but not others, and their opinions on the specific players will be different as well.

A draft pick could be used on any position and any player they might like. Either by drafting that player with the pick, or by trading that pick for a different player they want.

Because of the limitations of roster spots the draft picks are a way of expanding the overall value of your team. If you trade a player for a pick you then free up a roster spot to pick up someone else. Rinse and repeat with several transactions made this way.

Because in dynasty all players are kept year after year it is possible for dynasty teams to build up their rosters with many strong players as the core of their team and not have the need for free agent replacements to improve their starting lineups.

So these additional roster spots are used to churn free agent players and the more of those that can be sold for picks, the greater the value of the overall team becomes.

Draft picks often function like bonds as well. Their value increases as they mature, when those picks get closer to the actual draft they will be used in. So the manager can use timing with their trades to leverage more value out of those picks, by buying them when their cash in point is far away and selling them when that point is near.

Yep, that's a good explanation. And my comment was only half-facetious, as my dynasty strategy is similar to what Bozeman was saying overall, but (hopefully) not so literally "selling all point-scorers for picks". It's a balance, but you generally want as much value as you can get, at all times. Especially in my league where trading picks more than 1 year out has been banned for the last couple seasons, I very much try to hoard picks. Then immediately after the draft I can try to flip one or two of my new rookies for next year's picks (thereby "sort of" circumventing the ban).

I do think not allowing picks to be traded more than one year away makes for a healthier league as teams cannot be gutted for multiple seasons of picks and then abandoned, leaving that team with no viable assets for multiple seasons.

Depends on the league of course, but from a commishioners perspective not allowing that can help the league be more stable.

In some leagues managers are committed enough long term for this to be less of a concern, but I tend to agree with that limitation being more healthy for the league in a vacuum.

Personally I hate the rule. But I can understand that perspective. We've only had maybe 3 departures in the last 10 years, if I had to guess a number on it. And I don't really think any were "gutted". But you never know when someone might take advantage of the system.

Yeah I can understand not wanting to have that limitation.

If its long term league as you say try to lobby for a change and if enough owners agree maybe it can be changed.

I have played in a lot of different dynasty leagues and some of them not having this limitation would be fine.

Others I have seen a lot of turnover in managers and even leagues folding. This is what this rule is trying to prevent.

I have seen leagues where managers are completely win now and some of them even cash in for a year then bail afterwards leaving the new owner in a difficult spot trying to fix that team afterwards, or perhaps the worse example is the manager who becomes the victim of too many trades then leaves an even worse roster than the win now managers did.

Rosters where you have to pay someone to take over a long term rebuild. Less risk of that happening if they cant sell all their picks multiple seasons ahead.

I did lobby to remove the rule the year after it was put into place. But less than half the league liked the idea of removing it. I could bring it up every year, but I don't want to be insufferable.

Was in this same exact situation and getting the same results and felt the same way about bringing it up for a third year in a row. What I wound up doing that third year instead of suggesting to get rid of the rule, was playing into the reason they felt it was necessary in the first place. I suggested that any team that wants to trade future year picks just needs to pay the buy in for that season, that way they are actually tied to the longevity of the team (and the league). So if you're your buy in is $100 and you traded your 2024 and 2025 first round picks this offseason to get 1.01 and draft Bijan, you also pre-paid the buy ins for those next two seasons. This also means if an owner does cripple a team and flake out, it makes it a lot easier to backfill their spot by telling the new potential owner "yeah the team is kinda crap and you're missing your next two first round picks, but the buy-in's are on the house and you can play for free these next two years while you rebuild". It universally passed.

edit: posted before reading all the following comments and seeing someone else also say this. TLDR, what that guy said lol.

fixed corrected

Corrected

reach

 

[Jayded]

I like to think I’m pretty decent at evaluating college rbs. I missed on this guy bad. Went back and checked my notes on him after seeing I had him ranked 63rd(idp) in my draft rankings. Was any body “high” on him coming out? Was his college part of the problem with him? I had him below average on elusiveness. I do remember having a hard time finding games on this kid. Which happened a a lot to me. But jeeez. Like the poster said above. Dudes slippery.

I still believe what I said on page 1 here. I was sure he’d play early because he relished blocking at Notre Dame.

Most wrote him off for his 40 time, but you’re now seeing the back we had in slippery more than fast. Elusive runner with a knack for blocking should have told people he’d get a shot. I figured he’d be relegated to 3rd down back duties because of draft capital and speed, but glad he’s getting his shot now to show what he’s got.

well, he sure looks good now. what happened in the past is past.
I also am not a guy who likes to rely solely on timed 40 times as a player on the field will time differently than he will on a track. sure a faster time is better than a slower one, but game speed seems to be different. Not always, but for some players it is.

Yup and just to be clear I wasn't criticizing anything in particular. I think part of what would be good for all of us is to question "where did I miss the signs on this guy" from a dynasty perspective so we can draft value accordingly down the line.

Kyren feels like he fits into the combine seemed to sink his draft capital (40 time especially), but watching his college tape he's more than just numbers during combine. He's like the anti-Zach Kuntz workout warrior whose full package finally got him onto the field for his opportunity. Feels like maybe we need to credit the pre-combine rankings for some of these guys with hopes the talent they showed before getting specifically measured should point us to where to reach in latter rounds of drafts.

 

[Warhogs]

I like stories like this. It reinforces there is some value in dart throw later picks in dynasty teams with larger rosters.

 

[Rookiefever]

I like to think I’m pretty decent at evaluating college rbs. I missed on this guy bad. Went back and checked my notes on him after seeing I had him ranked 63rd(idp) in my draft rankings. Was any body “high” on him coming out? Was his college part of the problem with him? I had him below average on elusiveness. I do remember having a hard time finding games on this kid. Which happened a a lot to me. But jeeez. Like the poster said above. Dudes slippery.

I still believe what I said on page 1 here. I was sure he’d play early because he relished blocking at Notre Dame.

Most wrote him off for his 40 time, but you’re now seeing the back we had in slippery more than fast. Elusive runner with a knack for blocking should have told people he’d get a shot. I figured he’d be relegated to 3rd down back duties because of draft capital and speed, but glad he’s getting his shot now to show what he’s got.

well, he sure looks good now. what happened in the past is past.
I also am not a guy who likes to rely solely on timed 40 times as a player on the field will time differently than he will on a track. sure a faster time is better than a slower one, but game speed seems to be different. Not always, but for some players it is.

Yup and just to be clear I wasn't criticizing anything in particular. I think part of what would be good for all of us is to question "where did I miss the signs on this guy" from a dynasty perspective so we can draft value accordingly down the line.

Kyren feels like he fits into the combine seemed to sink his draft capital (40 time especially), but watching his college tape he's more than just numbers during combine. He's like the anti-Zach Kuntz workout warrior whose full package finally got him onto the field for his opportunity. Feels like maybe we need to credit the pre-combine rankings for some of these guys with hopes the talent they showed before getting specifically measured should point us to where to reach in latter rounds of drafts.

The combine got me in trouble early in my attempts to do personal rankings. But, by the time guys like lessen mccoy came out I knew better. I totally missed on this guy and even passed on him in the fourth (had akers) for Kyle Hamilton. That’s a big miss for me and I’ll definitely be going back to find whatever game cut ups I can find on him and rewatching. I watched the rams week 2 game in its entirety and I’m puzzled as to how much better he looked than I was ready for. Not sure why mcvay didn’t give him more touches last year seeing him play. Also not sure how I don’t remember any hype on this guy pre or post combine.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying he’s the next foster. But it seems he definitely has enough talent to be starting for the rams and ff teams for the rest of this year if not more. At the cost he had in my drafts 46th-54th overall hell make lot folks playoff contenders.

 

[Todem]

He produced at a high level vs an elite NFL defense in the 49ers.

Kid is clearly their lead dog and barring injury will be the WW pickup of the year.

So glad I blew every dollar on him after week 1. I will enjoy watching him the rest of the way.

The Rams actually look competent. Stafford looks healthy again. When Kupp comes back it will only help.

 

[Biabreakable]

I like what you guys are saying. Dont let the combine cause you to dismiss college prospects, and looking for things that may have led Williams to getting the opportunity he has now. For future reference when evaluating players.

That said it remains to be seen if Williams will continue playing well or not. So dont get too ahead of yourselves either.

 

[Ray_T]

I like to think I’m pretty decent at evaluating college rbs. I missed on this guy bad. Went back and checked my notes on him after seeing I had him ranked 63rd(idp) in my draft rankings. Was any body “high” on him coming out? Was his college part of the problem with him? I had him below average on elusiveness. I do remember having a hard time finding games on this kid. Which happened a a lot to me. But jeeez. Like the poster said above. Dudes slippery.

I still believe what I said on page 1 here. I was sure he’d play early because he relished blocking at Notre Dame.

Most wrote him off for his 40 time, but you’re now seeing the back we had in slippery more than fast. Elusive runner with a knack for blocking should have told people he’d get a shot. I figured he’d be relegated to 3rd down back duties because of draft capital and speed, but glad he’s getting his shot now to show what he’s got.

well, he sure looks good now. what happened in the past is past.
I also am not a guy who likes to rely solely on timed 40 times as a player on the field will time differently than he will on a track. sure a faster time is better than a slower one, but game speed seems to be different. Not always, but for some players it is.

Yup and just to be clear I wasn't criticizing anything in particular. I think part of what would be good for all of us is to question "where did I miss the signs on this guy" from a dynasty perspective so we can draft value accordingly down the line.

Kyren feels like he fits into the combine seemed to sink his draft capital (40 time especially), but watching his college tape he's more than just numbers during combine. He's like the anti-Zach Kuntz workout warrior whose full package finally got him onto the field for his opportunity. Feels like maybe we need to credit the pre-combine rankings for some of these guys with hopes the talent they showed before getting specifically measured should point us to where to reach in latter rounds of drafts.

The combine got me in trouble early in my attempts to do personal rankings. But, by the time guys like lessen mccoy came out I knew better. I totally missed on this guy and even passed on him in the fourth (had akers) for Kyle Hamilton. That’s a big miss for me and I’ll definitely be going back to find whatever game cut ups I can find on him and rewatching. I watched the rams week 2 game in its entirety and I’m puzzled as to how much better he looked than I was ready for. Not sure why mcvay didn’t give him more touches last year seeing him play. Also not sure how I don’t remember any hype on this guy pre or post combine.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying he’s the next foster. But it seems he definitely has enough talent to be starting for the rams and ff teams for the rest of this year if not more. At the cost he had in my drafts 46th-54th overall hell make lot folks playoff contenders.

honestly, straight line speed is underrated. I place very little weight on that unless they are REALLY slow.
cone drill I like as this measures how quickly they can change direction and for a RB/WR this is a better test. but even so, I still feel nothing really beats the eye test and watching someone play.

 

[jobarules]

He produced at a high level vs an elite NFL defense in the 49ers.

Maybe fantasy wise but did he? I thought I read he had the worst Rushing Yards Over Expectation of week 2. Dont ask me if I know what that is.

 

[Irishod]

I’m about to bid 90% of my FA budget for him.

 

[kyoun1e]

Very happy to have picked him up last week.

That said, why does this situation seem too perfect to be true?

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Very happy to have picked him up last week.

That said, why does this situation seem too perfect to be true?

that's just your umteen years of fantasy football experience talking, so many ways a great situation can become a rugpull in this game lol. i missed out on him but for the short term it sure looks like a winning move.

 

[kyoun1e]

Very happy to have picked him up last week.

That said, why does this situation seem too perfect to be true?

that's just your umteen years of fantasy football experience talking, so many ways a great situation can become a rugpull in this game lol. i missed out on him but for the short term it sure looks like a winning move.

Yup.

And once I see people using the term "league winner" that's usually the kiss of death.

 

[JamboTaylor]

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

 

[Todem]

He produced at a high level vs an elite NFL defense in the 49ers.

Maybe fantasy wise but did he? I thought I read he had the worst Rushing Yards Over Expectation of week 2. Dont ask me if I know what that is.

I just use my eyes.....he can play. He looked like a very competent RB vs arguably one of the best defenses in the NFL. I don’t know how else we can say....he can’t do it. He clearly can.

 

[Todem]

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

 

[Warhogs]

Ha, I just guess. I don't have the time to analyze players and give them my personal grade.

 

[rustycolts]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

 

[Biabreakable]

I like to think I’m pretty decent at evaluating college rbs. I missed on this guy bad. Went back and checked my notes on him after seeing I had him ranked 63rd(idp) in my draft rankings. Was any body “high” on him coming out? Was his college part of the problem with him? I had him below average on elusiveness. I do remember having a hard time finding games on this kid. Which happened a a lot to me. But jeeez. Like the poster said above. Dudes slippery.

I still believe what I said on page 1 here. I was sure he’d play early because he relished blocking at Notre Dame.

Most wrote him off for his 40 time, but you’re now seeing the back we had in slippery more than fast. Elusive runner with a knack for blocking should have told people he’d get a shot. I figured he’d be relegated to 3rd down back duties because of draft capital and speed, but glad he’s getting his shot now to show what he’s got.

well, he sure looks good now. what happened in the past is past.
I also am not a guy who likes to rely solely on timed 40 times as a player on the field will time differently than he will on a track. sure a faster time is better than a slower one, but game speed seems to be different. Not always, but for some players it is.

Yup and just to be clear I wasn't criticizing anything in particular. I think part of what would be good for all of us is to question "where did I miss the signs on this guy" from a dynasty perspective so we can draft value accordingly down the line.

Kyren feels like he fits into the combine seemed to sink his draft capital (40 time especially), but watching his college tape he's more than just numbers during combine. He's like the anti-Zach Kuntz workout warrior whose full package finally got him onto the field for his opportunity. Feels like maybe we need to credit the pre-combine rankings for some of these guys with hopes the talent they showed before getting specifically measured should point us to where to reach in latter rounds of drafts.

The combine got me in trouble early in my attempts to do personal rankings. But, by the time guys like lessen mccoy came out I knew better. I totally missed on this guy and even passed on him in the fourth (had akers) for Kyle Hamilton. That’s a big miss for me and I’ll definitely be going back to find whatever game cut ups I can find on him and rewatching. I watched the rams week 2 game in its entirety and I’m puzzled as to how much better he looked than I was ready for. Not sure why mcvay didn’t give him more touches last year seeing him play. Also not sure how I don’t remember any hype on this guy pre or post combine.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying he’s the next foster. But it seems he definitely has enough talent to be starting for the rams and ff teams for the rest of this year if not more. At the cost he had in my drafts 46th-54th overall hell make lot folks playoff contenders.

honestly, straight line speed is underrated. I place very little weight on that unless they are REALLY slow.
cone drill I like as this measures how quickly they can change direction and for a RB/WR this is a better test. but even so, I still feel nothing really beats the eye test and watching someone play.

I used to factor 3 cone drill into my RB evaluations and I have even seen pretty good research that showed the 3 cone drill had some relatively strong correlation to RB success, along with the 40 time and player weight being the most important metrics.

When I say relatively strong correlation I mean that none of the combine metrics had strong enough correlation to be entirely convincing. There were still too many exceptions. But those 3 metrics had stronger correlation than the other metrics did.

Then soon after Dalvin Cook had a poor 3 cone time and kind of a big deal was made out of this by people who pay attention to these things. His 3 cone time did not match what I saw on tape so it was a bit confusing to me. I also think its worth pointing out that there have been RB with very good 3 cone times that did jack diddly in the NFL.

Fast forward a bit and fewer RB participated in the 3 cone drill at the combine. Hardly any have done that drill the last 2 combines. The reason for this I am uncertain of. However I speculate that if the 3 cone drill were of importance to NFL team evaluations of RBs that they would do the drill and try to do it well. Yet they do not do it anymore. They still do the 40 though.

I also speculate that RB agents may be collectively advising RB prospects to not do the 3 cone drill. Perhaps in part because of the criticism Dalvin Cook recieved for not putting up a good time in the drill and perhaps other players I am unaware of.

That being said combine drills have even worse correlation with successful players from the WR position than any other position. None of the metrics have strong correlation at all for WR. Which is somewhat surprising, but thats a fact.

Although I know this about WR I still took note of Cooper Kupps exceptional 3 cone time contrasted with his below average 40 time and those metrics do seem to line up with what I have seen from Kupp on the field.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

As for prospect scouting... I usually just watch as much College Football as my wife will allow and then about 3 weeks before the NFL draft, I watch YouTube highlights of players...

Those highlights and media hype lead me to take guys like Jerry Jeudy over Justin Jefferson or Kyle Pitts over JaMarr Chase. So, you do you boo...

 

[rustycolts]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

 

[bolldpt]

another owner wanted Williams and I countered with Murray and his 2024 1st. He said he would give his second but not his 1st.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

 

[Rookiefever]

As for prospect scouting... I usually just watch as much College Football as my wife will allow and then about 3 weeks before the NFL draft, I watch YouTube highlights of players...

Those highlights and media hype lead me to take guys like Jerry Jeudy over Justin Jefferson or Kyle Pitts over JaMarr Chase. So, you do you boo...

Exactly why I haven’t watched highlights since beanie wells. Lol

 

[Rookiefever]

Kyren looked pretty darn good but any if I was offered first rd pick in dynasty he’d be gone.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Two offers I have received in the last day (10 team, 10 player keeper league) for those wonding about Kyren's potential value....

I give: Kyren and Devonta Smith
I get: Josh Jacobs and DJ Moore

He said still not totally sure he would do it but likely would. I am considering this one as I am LOADED with young WR (Lamb, AJ, Higgins, Smith, Addison, Elijah)

I give: Kyren and AJ Brown (though I would counter with Devonta if I considered)
I get: Joe Mixon and Brandon Aiyuk

I would take a 2024 1st likely if offered, but no one in this league will offer that..... Yet......

I am down Chubb and Barkley so Kyren is my #1 currently. Not sure I want to move for either guy that has done squat this year.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Seems like a lot of excitement for a guy who is averaging 3.6 ypc. Oh calm down, I am kidding! (kind of…).

 

[pinkstapler]

Two offers I have received in the last day (10 team, 10 player keeper league) for those wonding about Kyren's potential value....

I give: Kyren and Devonta Smith
I get: Josh Jacobs and DJ Moore

He said still not totally sure he would do it but likely would. I am considering this one as I am LOADED with young WR (Lamb, AJ, Higgins, Smith, Addison, Elijah)

I give: Kyren and AJ Brown (though I would counter with Devonta if I considered)
I get: Joe Mixon and Brandon Aiyuk

I would take a 2024 1st likely if offered, but no one in this league will offer that..... Yet......

I am down Chubb and Barkley so Kyren is my #1 currently. Not sure I want to move for either guy that has done squat this year.

I may on the unpopular side here, but man, I hate both of those trades for you. Like I don't even think they are close. I realize Jacobs should, and likely will, bounce back from his pedestrian start. But I think the tires are losing tread at this point for him. The history of RB seasons following 370+ touch seasons does not project a pretty picture. More importantly, his situation stinks. Raiders barely eked out a win against bottom of the barrel team in Denver. Their line is not good. They will be playing from behind and likely passing a ton. And DJ Moore plays for the Bears, enough said.

Joe Mixon was already pedestrian last year. His upside is definitely consistent touches, solid passing game work, and a high floor. But I don't think he so much better than Kyren that he is worth the downgrade at WR. Love Aiyuks talent, actually think talent wise he's a top 5 WR in the NFL. But unforunately he plays on a team that also has a top 3 RB and a top 3 TE in the league. With another WR who's excellent. He'll have some weeks like week 1, but then plenty of single digit scoring weeks too.

I guess I'm also on the outside looking in with Kyren. I put very little stock in the "coaches tendencies" arguments. I'll agree with those who do that yes, they are hard to predict. But diverge when I say that then I just remove that variable all together. I think avoiding a player because a coach has a history of erratic decisions, is actually someone trying to predict erratic decisions lol, if that makes sense. Don't overthink it IMO, Kyren is their lead back and he's getting all the quality looks. Priority rushes, passing downs, and red zone work. He was one of the best blocking backs to come out last year, and while he didn't have a flashy combine, I think he has Justin Forsett written all over him. Think pending health, he has a very similar build and skillset and with continued usage will put up numbers that look like Forsett his first year in Baltimore.

Especially in a keeper league where you could probably keep him for peanuts, it seems like the smart play to hold pat with him. If you can move AJ Brown for a RB straight up because you are deep at WR, I'd consider doing that instead.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Two offers I have received in the last day (10 team, 10 player keeper league) for those wonding about Kyren's potential value....

I give: Kyren and Devonta Smith
I get: Josh Jacobs and DJ Moore

He said still not totally sure he would do it but likely would. I am considering this one as I am LOADED with young WR (Lamb, AJ, Higgins, Smith, Addison, Elijah)

I give: Kyren and AJ Brown (though I would counter with Devonta if I considered)
I get: Joe Mixon and Brandon Aiyuk

I would take a 2024 1st likely if offered, but no one in this league will offer that..... Yet......

I am down Chubb and Barkley so Kyren is my #1 currently. Not sure I want to move for either guy that has done squat this year.

I may on the unpopular side here, but man, I hate both of those trades for you. Like I don't even think they are close. I realize Jacobs should, and likely will, bounce back from his pedestrian start. But I think the tires are losing tread at this point for him. The history of RB seasons following 370+ touch seasons does not project a pretty picture. More importantly, his situation stinks. Raiders barely eked out a win against bottom of the barrel team in Denver. Their line is not good. They will be playing from behind and likely passing a ton. And DJ Moore plays for the Bears, enough said.

Joe Mixon was already pedestrian last year. His upside is definitely consistent touches, solid passing game work, and a high floor. But I don't think he so much better than Kyren that he is worth the downgrade at WR. Love Aiyuks talent, actually think talent wise he's a top 5 WR in the NFL. But unforunately he plays on a team that also has a top 3 RB and a top 3 TE in the league. With another WR who's excellent. He'll have some weeks like week 1, but then plenty of single digit scoring weeks too.

I guess I'm also on the outside looking in with Kyren. I put very little stock in the "coaches tendencies" arguments. I'll agree with those who do that yes, they are hard to predict. But diverge when I say that then I just remove that variable all together. I think avoiding a player because a coach has a history of erratic decisions, is actually someone trying to predict erratic decisions lol, if that makes sense. Don't overthink it IMO, Kyren is their lead back and he's getting all the quality looks. Priority rushes, passing downs, and red zone work. He was one of the best blocking backs to come out last year, and while he didn't have a flashy combine, I think he has Justin Forsett written all over him. Think pending health, he has a very similar build and skillset and with continued usage will put up numbers that look like Forsett his first year in Baltimore.

Especially in a keeper league where you could probably keep him for peanuts, it seems like the smart play to hold pat with him. If you can move AJ Brown for a RB straight up because you are deep at WR, I'd consider doing that instead.

Thank you for your very well thought out reply. A lot of great info here and I have decided to keep Kyren.

 

[Birdie048]

Two offers I have received in the last day (10 team, 10 player keeper league) for those wonding about Kyren's potential value....

I give: Kyren and Devonta Smith
I get: Josh Jacobs and DJ Moore

He said still not totally sure he would do it but likely would. I am considering this one as I am LOADED with young WR (Lamb, AJ, Higgins, Smith, Addison, Elijah)

I give: Kyren and AJ Brown (though I would counter with Devonta if I considered)
I get: Joe Mixon and Brandon Aiyuk

I would take a 2024 1st likely if offered, but no one in this league will offer that..... Yet......

I am down Chubb and Barkley so Kyren is my #1 currently. Not sure I want to move for either guy that has done squat this year.

I may on the unpopular side here, but man, I hate both of those trades for you. Like I don't even think they are close. I realize Jacobs should, and likely will, bounce back from his pedestrian start. But I think the tires are losing tread at this point for him. The history of RB seasons following 370+ touch seasons does not project a pretty picture. More importantly, his situation stinks. Raiders barely eked out a win against bottom of the barrel team in Denver. Their line is not good. They will be playing from behind and likely passing a ton. And DJ Moore plays for the Bears, enough said.

Joe Mixon was already pedestrian last year. His upside is definitely consistent touches, solid passing game work, and a high floor. But I don't think he so much better than Kyren that he is worth the downgrade at WR. Love Aiyuks talent, actually think talent wise he's a top 5 WR in the NFL. But unforunately he plays on a team that also has a top 3 RB and a top 3 TE in the league. With another WR who's excellent. He'll have some weeks like week 1, but then plenty of single digit scoring weeks too.

I guess I'm also on the outside looking in with Kyren. I put very little stock in the "coaches tendencies" arguments. I'll agree with those who do that yes, they are hard to predict. But diverge when I say that then I just remove that variable all together. I think avoiding a player because a coach has a history of erratic decisions, is actually someone trying to predict erratic decisions lol, if that makes sense. Don't overthink it IMO, Kyren is their lead back and he's getting all the quality looks. Priority rushes, passing downs, and red zone work. He was one of the best blocking backs to come out last year, and while he didn't have a flashy combine, I think he has Justin Forsett written all over him. Think pending health, he has a very similar build and skillset and with continued usage will put up numbers that look like Forsett his first year in Baltimore.

Especially in a keeper league where you could probably keep him for peanuts, it seems like the smart play to hold pat with him. If you can move AJ Brown for a RB straight up because you are deep at WR, I'd consider doing that instead.

Well said & I am in complete agreement.... the offers are not sufficient to give up on Kyren Williams and his RB1 Role.
I would recommend you handcuff him with Zach Evans though.

DJ Moore in a low quality/volume Chi passing game is not worth it. Mixon is holding the job until they can find/get/acquire a better option. His only asset is volume .
I am a major fan of Aiyuk and in a KCC, Minn, or Buff type passing offense, he would be in discussion with Jefferson, Chase etc. as Top 3 WR.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

On the train now. Was second in waivers last night (Kyren was not picked up after week 1) and didn't think i'd get him but the number 1 waiver pick selected Kareem Hunt. Go figure. After losing Chubb, feel energized again, let's hope the first 2 weeks weren't a mirage. I haven't watched him run, only the stats to go by.

 

[pinkstapler]

On the train now. Was second in waivers last night (Kyren was not picked up after week 1) and didn't think i'd get him but the number 1 waiver pick selected Kareem Hunt. Go figure. After losing Chubb, feel energized again, let's hope the first 2 weeks weren't a mirage. I haven't watched him run, only the stats to go by.

It's unlikely he continues scoring two TDs every week obviously lol, and Stafford has only thrown 1 TD through two games so expect positive regression there. But I'd think Williams will be seeing 15 touches as a weekly floor. And with the WRs performing at the level they are, and stretching the field with Atwell, the rushing game will be there. He unfortunately has the Eagles and Cowboys coming up over the next 6 weeks, but seeing what he managed against SF, I wouldn't be worried. And the other weeks.... I'd be starting with confidence. I'm not looking to neg Cam Akers, but despite what we read all last offseason, I think the Rams offensive line has been playing well above expectations and helped play a part in how good Akers looked at the end of last season.

 

[Chreesto]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

TD only is the best, yards are for houses.

 

[eighsse2]

On the train now. Was second in waivers last night (Kyren was not picked up after week 1) and didn't think i'd get him but the number 1 waiver pick selected Kareem Hunt. Go figure. After losing Chubb, feel energized again, let's hope the first 2 weeks weren't a mirage. I haven't watched him run, only the stats to go by.

Dude took Hunt over Kyren ...

 

[LionOfGosforth]

On the train now. Was second in waivers last night (Kyren was not picked up after week 1) and didn't think i'd get him but the number 1 waiver pick selected Kareem Hunt. Go figure. After losing Chubb, feel energized again, let's hope the first 2 weeks weren't a mirage. I haven't watched him run, only the stats to go by.

Dude took Hunt over Kyren ...

Yup. Don't have a good explanation for that, was quite stunned this morning

 

[dcgangstas]

This year I took him in the 17th round of my 12 team redraft league. Took another shot at Williams after picking him up on waivers last year , waiting for McVay to hand him the keys to the RB1 role.

Patience pays off sometimes.

 

[Faust]

Rams ready to rely on Kyren Williams as their lead running back

 

[BlackCrowes]

In

 

[Deamon]

I’m about to bid 90% of my FA budget for him.

100 for sure. He is an RB2 rest of season easily.

 

[TommyKramer9]

I’m about to bid 90% of my FA budget for him.

100 for sure. He is an RB2 rest of season easily.

RB1 IMO

 

[TartanLion]

Chewed over this all week, kept reading everything I could find and listening to a mountain of podcasts etc. Anyways, finally hit accept on

I get Kyren Williams and a ‘24 3rd

For

‘25 1st

It’s risky but I’m kind of going all in this year and have had bad RB luck first two weeks.

 

[Deamon]

I’m about to bid 90% of my FA budget for him.

100 for sure. He is an RB2 rest of season easily.

RB1 IMO

quite possibly. Either way, if he's somehow on your waivers, blow every single cent.

 

[JohnnyU]

Chewed over this all week, kept reading everything I could find and listening to a mountain of podcasts etc. Anyways, finally hit accept on

I get Kyren Williams and a ‘24 3rd

For

‘25 1st

It’s risky but I’m kind of going all in this year and have had bad RB luck first two weeks.

Personally I would keep the 25 1st.

 

[Biabreakable]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

TD only is the best, yards are for houses.

Says the Robb Riddick owner from 1988.

I had Thurman Thomas that year. I still have to look up that TD vultures name every time I think of this.

 

[TommyKramer9]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

TD only is the best, yards are for houses.

Says the Robb Riddick owner from 1988.

I had Thurman Thomas that year. I still have to look up that TD vultures name every time I think of this.

Wow, I don’t hear of many people that have been playing this game longer than me. I started in 1991. Didn’t know what I was doing and chose Flipper Anderson with my 1st ever pick

 

[Biabreakable]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

TD only is the best, yards are for houses.

Says the Robb Riddick owner from 1988.

I had Thurman Thomas that year. I still have to look up that TD vultures name every time I think of this.

Wow, I don’t hear of many people that have been playing this game longer than me. I started in 1991. Didn’t know what I was doing and chose Flipper Anderson with my 1st ever pick

Yeah Im old.

My cousin had Riddick that year and beat me in the title game that season in our 10 team league.

We started counting yards in every season after this in large part because of this type of thing and switched to dynasty format soon after as well.

I think our first year playing was 1987.

 

[MissionCoach]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

TD only is the best, yards are for houses.

Says the Robb Riddick owner from 1988.

I had Thurman Thomas that year. I still have to look up that TD vultures name every time I think of this.

Wow, I don’t hear of many people that have been playing this game longer than me. I started in 1991. Didn’t know what I was doing and chose Flipper Anderson with my 1st ever pick

Yeah Im old.

My cousin had Riddick that year and beat me in the title game that season in our 10 team league.

We started counting yards in every season after this in large part because of this type of thing and switched to dynasty format soon after as well.

I think our first year playing was 1987.

Is Zach Evans or Ronnie Rivers the handcuff?

 

[JohnnyU]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

TD only is the best, yards are for houses.

Says the Robb Riddick owner from 1988.

I had Thurman Thomas that year. I still have to look up that TD vultures name every time I think of this.

Wow, I don’t hear of many people that have been playing this game longer than me. I started in 1991. Didn’t know what I was doing and chose Flipper Anderson with my 1st ever pick

Yeah Im old.

My cousin had Riddick that year and beat me in the title game that season in our 10 team league.

We started counting yards in every season after this in large part because of this type of thing and switched to dynasty format soon after as well.

I think our first year playing was 1987.

Is Zach Evans or Ronnie Rivers the handcuff?

Technically I think it is Rivers, but I doubt he's too hard of a hurdle to jump. People who live by a Sean McVay RB, die by a Sean McVay RB. Kind of like dying by a thousand cuts.

 

[SofaCoach]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

TD only is the best, yards are for houses.

Been in a 16 team TD only league since 1990. Live all day draft. Best league I've ever been in. (in thread because I drafted Kyren in 14th round)

 

[Biabreakable]

In a TD only league I traded next years 3rd and James Cook for him and M. Evans. When I say TD only that's all it is no points for anything else.

Ahhh, an "amish rules" fantasy football league - no frills and thrills just the essentials and a lot of ties, I assume.

Offered Gainwell and 24 1st and got rejected. For those wondering about value etc

Wow......if someone offered me a 2024 1st.....I would probably bite knowing how this position changes like my underwear.

Lol, I was going to offer up some players to the Kyren owner in dynasty but if his asking price is a potential starting RB + 1st next year+? I think I'll just stay put, because McVay will probably have Zach Evans in there by Thanksgiving.

No ties home field advantage breaks those. TDs values depend on distance 12,9 and 6. So not as many ties as you'd think. I hate the home field advantage rule.

It's a keep 6 keeper league. I got Cook with the 1.12 this year I just think Kyren scores more than Cook so I took the offer.

I have been in this league damn near 25 years I wish we would change the rules some but the other owners are change adverse.

I left a league because it refused to switch from TD-only… in 2004.

TD only is the best, yards are for houses.

Says the Robb Riddick owner from 1988.

I had Thurman Thomas that year. I still have to look up that TD vultures name every time I think of this.

Wow, I don’t hear of many people that have been playing this game longer than me. I started in 1991. Didn’t know what I was doing and chose Flipper Anderson with my 1st ever pick

Yeah Im old.

My cousin had Riddick that year and beat me in the title game that season in our 10 team league.

We started counting yards in every season after this in large part because of this type of thing and switched to dynasty format soon after as well.

I think our first year playing was 1987.

Is Zach Evans or Ronnie Rivers the handcuff?

What Johnny said.

According to our lads, Rams official depth chart ect it is Rivers as the back up right now who has 2 years in the NFL.

Evans is a rookie but may be the more interesting prospect of the two if you are thinking more long term.

I havent researched any of these RB very much to say for sure including Williams but with a cursory glance Evans seems a bit more promising as he was drafted. Rivers has already bounced around on a few teams rosters in his short career.