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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (2 Viewers)

In the salary cap era, has any team ever paid a RB ~10% of the cap and been successful?  Looks like the Vikings paid Peterson about 11M in 2013 when the cap was about 123M.  They finished 5-11 that year.

Not to say that it would be impossible for a team to win with 10% of the cap going to a RB, just that I wonder if it has ever played out that way.

 
... to the surprise of absolutely no one.    And I am not so sure it is 100% a bad thing.  Sure he will be rusty but there are a lot of fluke injuries in camp...
The first 4 games are going to be rough. I expect another loss similar to Chicago last year and we almost lost to the Browns early. That rust could really cost us. 

 
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin told WAVY 10 he's optimistic the team will reach a deal with franchise player Le'Veon Bell ahead of Monday's 4 PM ET deadline.

"He wants to get the deal done," said the long-time Steelers coach. "I’m excited and hopeful. Hopefully we’ll have some exciting news Monday." The two sides have reportedly made progress in extension talks, though the clock is ticking with Monday's 4 PM deadline fast approaching. Bell is prepared to sit out training camp, just as he did last year, if a deal isn't reached. The Steelers are hoping it doesn't come to that, though Tomlin doesn't sound concerned about Bell's level of fitness. "He’s the type of guy who’s highly conditioned over a 12-month calendar," said Tomlin.

Source: WAVY 10 on YouTube 

Jul 15 - 9:03 AM

 
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports negotiations between franchise-tagged Le'Veon Bell and the Steelers "will go down to the wire."

The deadline to sign a deal is 4 ET Monday afternoon. Coach Mike Tomlin said over the weekend he is optimistic a deal will get done, but ESPN's Adam Schefter painted a less rosy picture on Sunday night, saying it will be "challenging" for the two sides to reach an agreement. Bell will likely skip training camp again this season if he does not land a long-term contract.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter 

Jul 16 - 8:30 AM
 
Schefter: Bell could sit out half the season

Speaking on SiriusXM NFL Radio, ESPN's Adam Schefter said he thinks "it's possible Le'Veon Bell sits out the first half of the year if he doesn't get a long-term deal done."

Considering it is deadline day for franchise-tagged players to sign a long-term deal, this feels like a leak by Bell's camp to put pressure on the Steelers. That said, Bell did skip all of training camp last season, and it makes sense for him to hold out as long as possible to avoid both an injury and shouldering another 400 touches. Bell's No. 1 overall upside is tough to pass up, but he is a risk at the top of fantasy drafts.

 
I see no upside to Bell sitting out any games.  Today is the deadline to get a long term deal done.  Assuming that it doesn't get done, he will play this year on a very hefty franchise tag value.  It seems this is all about the money for Bell, so it would be quite odd if he decided to give back any of those game checks.

 
I see no upside to Bell sitting out any games.  Today is the deadline to get a long term deal done.  Assuming that it doesn't get done, he will play this year on a very hefty franchise tag value.  It seems this is all about the money for Bell, so it would be quite odd if he decided to give back any of those game checks.
I don't know if he will do it, but the upside is fewer games where he could get hurt & jeopardize his first real shot at FA next off-season.

IF Bell doesn't get a long-term deal this off-season, the Steelers won't franchise him again (it would cost them $20,943,360), so he'll be a FA.  If he sits out games, he sacrifices $909,000 each game.  If he sits out 10 (the max he can sit out & still accrue a year towards his FA), he'll lose $9,090,000.  That's A LOT of money, but if he gets hurt this year, the $30M guarantee he'll likely get next year could vanish.

 
I see no upside to Bell sitting out any games.  Today is the deadline to get a long term deal done.  Assuming that it doesn't get done, he will play this year on a very hefty franchise tag value.  It seems this is all about the money for Bell, so it would be quite odd if he decided to give back any of those game checks.
Nothing he has done to this point has made sense. He’s been offered to be the top paid RB multiple, multiple times now and refuses to adhere to what the market is. He’s a clown off the field. His stupid rap’s, his drug usage, I also personally don’t see him as a team player. That’s fine, make your money. Still doesn’t engage me as a fan. People have been very forgiving of his antics for some reason, perhaps because he’s on the Steelers. I wonder what a more acidic fan base and press coverage would have to say about him. I think looking at ODB and people on this board clowning him gives a good picture of what playing for NYG vs playing for Pittsburgh means. ODB hasn’t even held out and has said he has no intention to but that’s enough for people to discount him in the first, yet Bell is on year two of holding out and people want to hold him as RB#1. I’ve been quietly bearish on Bell because I know it’s an unpopular opinion. His running was actually at league average last year, his wear scares me and now in dynasty you may lose 8 games and have him walk into FA at age 27...  :X

Time to sell may have already come and gone. Glad I noticed the window early.

 
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Got to hold him if you're a win now team. Doubt he holds out into the regular season. 
Denial is the first response. Players have held out well into the season before, most recently Duane Brown. Given Bell’s injury history and position played it makes a lot of sense his agent trying to convince him to only accumulate what is a full season. Wouldn’t surprise me when he reported if he has a nagging, lingering hamstring injury too. Just one mans opinion though, it’s definitely happened in the past. Also, fwiw, I think the players would be fools to allow the franchise and transition tags stick through the next contract negotiation. Still doesn’t change my feelings on Bell and the way he’s been through the process so far.

 
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Schefter: Bell could sit out half the season

Speaking on SiriusXM NFL Radio, ESPN's Adam Schefter said he thinks "it's possible Le'Veon Bell sits out the first half of the year if he doesn't get a long-term deal done."

Considering it is deadline day for franchise-tagged players to sign a long-term deal, this feels like a leak by Bell's camp to put pressure on the Steelers. That said, Bell did skip all of training camp last season, and it makes sense for him to hold out as long as possible to avoid both an injury and shouldering another 400 touches. Bell's No. 1 overall upside is tough to pass up, but he is a risk at the top of fantasy drafts.
That is just Scheffer's opinion and nothing more.    Here's his statement below.    

“You know, everybody’s assuming that he’s just going to show up like last year before the regular season opener and I don’t think that’s a given at all,” Schefter said of Bell. “I think if they don’t get a deal done, the most important thing for Le’Veon Bell is to preserve his health and make sure he’s healthy heading into the 2019 free agent market. So, I think it’s possible that Le’Veon Bell skips the first half of the year. It’s possible. I’m not telling you he’ll do that, but I can tell you this, he’ll certainly think about it and make a decision about that.”

 
That is just Scheffer's opinion and nothing more.    Here's his statement below.    

“You know, everybody’s assuming that he’s just going to show up like last year before the regular season opener and I don’t think that’s a given at all,” Schefter said of Bell. “I think if they don’t get a deal done, the most important thing for Le’Veon Bell is to preserve his health and make sure he’s healthy heading into the 2019 free agent market. So, I think it’s possible that Le’Veon Bell skips the first half of the year. It’s possible. I’m not telling you he’ll do that, but I can tell you this, he’ll certainly think about it and make a decision about that.”
Scheff does not throw baseless opinions around. If he is saying it's possible that Bell will hold out it's because he is being told by Bell or his people it's possible.

I think it's helpful to read between the lines. Notice he did not say he "thinks" the most important thing for Bell is to preserve his health and make sure he is healthy for the 2019 FA market. That to me implies he's been told that to be the case. Also while he says he "thinks" Bell might hold out into the season he is point blanking telling you Bell will consider it, again this is likely because he's been directly told this to be the case.

 
I agree with a lot of your thoughts @Bojang0301 

I'm probably in the minority of Steeler fans but I hope they don't sign him to the long term contract.  He has been a stud on the field for sure when he's been available, but I don't want them to tie up that much money in the RB position given that the league is mostly going to RBBC (good from an NFL perspective, not so good for FF).  Sure, for the right price you keep  (arguably) the best RB in the game, but not for the ridiculous amount over what the 2nd highest paid RB in the league is getting.

 
@Bojang0301

I'm probably in the minority of Steeler fans but I hope they don't sign him to the long term contract. 
I feel same way and I bet more people feel this way then you think.

I said this prior to last season. I looked at NE who had Burkhead, White, Dion and Gillislee all 4 under contract for I think around $8M. The Saints who had Ingram, Kamara and AP under contract for also I think around $8M while we had Bell at $12M. In real life football, not fantasy,  last year at this time I thought I'd rather have those teams situations and nothing has changed my mind since.

 
I feel same way and I bet more people feel this way then you think.

I said this prior to last season. I looked at NE who had Burkhead, White, Dion and Gillislee all 4 under contract for I think around $8M. The Saints who had Ingram, Kamara and AP under contract for also I think around $8M while we had Bell at $12M. In real life football, not fantasy,  last year at this time I thought I'd rather have those teams situations and nothing has changed my mind since.
I think lots of people think this way. I know a lot of people see NFL owners as greedy Mr. Burns's rubbing their hands together finding new ways to be unfair to the players. I don't think that's the case here. Bell is incredible. The reality is he's likely asking for more than the market will bear. I don't blame him for asking. But I also fully understand the Steelers. 

Where it gets interesting for Steeler fans is they know the clock is ticking with Roethlisberger. This window won't be open forever. 

 
I think lots of people think this way. I know a lot of people see NFL owners as greedy Mr. Burns's rubbing their hands together finding new ways to be unfair to the players. I don't think that's the case here. Bell is incredible. The reality is he's likely asking for more than the market will bear. I don't blame him for asking. But I also fully understand the Steelers. 

Where it gets interesting for Steeler fans is they know the clock is ticking with Roethlisberger. This window won't be open forever. 
I think if he were a UDFA right now, you'd be surprised to see what the market would bear.  I don't blame the Steelers one bit for holding firm because they have a monopoly on negotiating rights.

 
I think if he were a UDFA right now, you'd be surprised to see what the market would bear.  I don't blame the Steelers one bit for holding firm because they have a monopoly on negotiating rights.
And that's the real question isn't it. What will his value be in 2019? 

If you were advising Bell, what would you say?

If you were advising the Steelers, what would you say?

 
And that's the real question isn't it. What will his value be in 2019? 

If you were advising Bell, what would you say?

If you were advising the Steelers, what would you say?
Outlook cloudy, ask again later.  ASSuming he doesn't get hurt, he's a year older and has another 400+ touches on his resume, he's worth less than he would have been worth in 2018.

If I were advising Bell, I would probably recommend playing it exactly the way he has.  I see no problem with asking for what he wants and not accepting less.

If I were advising the Steelers, I would probably recommend playing it exactly the way they have.  Get your final year out of him with no additional commitment and run him into the ground.

 
Outlook cloudy, ask again later.  ASSuming he doesn't get hurt, he's a year older and has another 400+ touches on his resume, he's worth less than he would have been worth in 2018.

If I were advising Bell, I would probably recommend playing it exactly the way he has.  I see no problem with asking for what he wants and not accepting less.

If I were advising the Steelers, I would probably recommend playing it exactly the way they have.  Get your final year out of him with no additional commitment and run him into the ground.
Thanks. I can see that. If the Steelers don't cave, how many games would you advise Bell to hold out and skip the $850,000 game check?

 
Thanks. I can see that. If the Steelers don't cave, how many games would you advise Bell to hold out and skip the $850,000 game check?
None!  He's all about the money, why would he forfeit any?  He's not going to get $14mm next year, there's nothing to be gained by wasting game checks now.

 
That is just Scheffer's opinion and nothing more.    Here's his statement below.    

“You know, everybody’s assuming that he’s just going to show up like last year before the regular season opener and I don’t think that’s a given at all,” Schefter said of Bell. “I think if they don’t get a deal done, the most important thing for Le’Veon Bell is to preserve his health and make sure he’s healthy heading into the 2019 free agent market. So, I think it’s possible that Le’Veon Bell skips the first half of the year. It’s possible. I’m not telling you he’ll do that, but I can tell you this, he’ll certainly think about it and make a decision about that.”
Thanks @moondog   do you have a link for that?  Thanks.

 
None!  He's all about the money, why would he forfeit any?  He's not going to get $14mm next year, there's nothing to be gained by wasting game checks now.
I can see that. I think it's all about what he can get next year. I agree with you he won't get 14mm next year in a long term deal. But I'm not sure he believes that. 

My gut still says he doesn't miss any games. Knowing what I know now (which isn't much), I lean toward him missing zero games from a holdout.

 
Passing on $900K game cheques to reduce injury risk doesn't seem like great strategy in a game where it only takes one play/hit - unless he's planning to play Week 1 and walk away when he gets a season in..

 
If I was advising Bell, he would have signed the long term deal he was offered last year. 

These guys are idiots the way they handle risk/reward.

 
None!  He's all about the money, why would he forfeit any?  He's not going to get $14mm next year, there's nothing to be gained by wasting game checks now.
I think this is the key and why I say there's an almost zero chance he misses any games this season due to a holdout - it just doesn't make any financial sense as he'll never make that money back.

 
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports Le'Veon Bell is expected to play his second-straight season on the Steelers' franchise tag.

No long-term deal is expected before Monday's 4PM ET deadline. As last year's tag netted Bell $12.12 million and this year's tag is worth $14.544 million, Bell will have collected $26.664 million fully guaranteed for two seasons. A suggestion surfaced Monday that Bell could hold out for the first half of the year, but that would cost Bell over $7 million and seems highly unlikely. Still, Bell is likely headed for another protracted training camp holdout. Last season, Bell reported to the Steelers nine days before Week 1.

Source: Jeremy Fowler on Twitter 

Jul 16 - 3:18 PM
 
Yeah guys  nothing to see here really. He will show up to camp about a week before the season starts again. So expect a slow first month for Bell again as he gets into game shape. Just like last year. Then he's gone after this year.

 
That was a big bullet the Steelers dodged. I like him as a player but no way did I want them signing him long term for the kind of money he wanted.

 
It’s just a universal fact that RB’s play at much closer to replacement level than any other position. It’s not to sell them short. Lev has done wonderful things not seen since LT2. It’s just looking at roster construction it’s impossible for a team to pay him the money he wants (essentially 2 positions worth of cap space). If he’s hell bent on his stance he’ll be on the market quite awhile next offseason and find himself playing again on another 1 year deal.

 
He would have been the highest paid RB in the league if he had not failed/missed that last drug test. He has no one to blame but himself.

 
Doesn't mean much on its own, what was the point differential? What was TOP average? what was defensive scores as well as defensive points given up? I would expect a healthy Bell results in higher TOP as well as lower scoring games as Pittsburgh grinds out the clock. That also means less TOP of possession for the opposing offense to score points, less pressure on the defense. 10 of his 16 game sample comes from 2015 as well so its tough to trust that sample means much outside of 2015. For example, for points against in 2015, the Steelers averaged 16.8 PPG given up in the 6 games Bell played, in the 10 he didn't? 21.8 PPG given up.

His non-Bell 16 game sample has a healthy Big Ben for all 16 as well, in the 5 games that Bell played but Big Ben didn't, the Steelers averaged less than 20 points a game which pulls Bell's average down at least a small amount. It appears he left out playoff games as well (maybe because of the small sample size), with Bell they averaged 24.8 PPG in the playoffs, without... 17 PPG.

Does that mean Bell was the reason for many of these numbers? Maybe, maybe not. The truth is that it's way more complicated than what this twitter post tries to suggest.

 
Le'Veon Bell strongly hinted on Twitter Monday that he will not hold out into the 2018 regular season.

No long-term deal was reached between the Steelers and Bell ahead of Monday's 4PM ET deadline for franchise players to sign extensions. "(My) desire always has been to retire a Steeler," Bell wrote. "Both sides worked extremely hard today to make that happen, but the NFL is a hard business at times. To the fans that had hope, I’m sorry we let you down but trust me, 2018 will be my best season to date." Bell wouldn't be able to turn in his "best season to date" if he missed games. The over-under date for Bell to report to the Steelers should be set at September 1, the date on which he reported last year.

Source: Le'Veon Bell on Twitter 

Jul 16 - 4:25 PM
 
Us dyno owners, we feel pretty lame right now. Myself, I am in win now mode. I get that some people love winning trades and building for the future but for me its all about engraving my name on the trophy we pass around. Writing on the wall obviously this dude is going to get fed to the likes we haven't seen in recent memory, 400 carries and 100 targets is more likely this year than any he has seen in the past. He is the Steelers proverbial rental car for 2018. 

Healthy, he is going to strap us to his back and bring us to the promised land. We could still get a nice haul right now if we wanted to but I am holding and just hoping he can give me 3 more productive years with the amount of use he is going to get. Rebuild obvious sell, but if you are middle pack you might have just missed your shot to get a Herschel Walker haul. 

 
FL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Steelers offered Le'Veon Bell a five-year, $70 million contract prior to Monday's 4 PM ET deadline.

Per RapSheet, the offer contained more than $30 million over the first two years, but Bell has opted to instead play on the $14.544 million tag for the second straight year before hitting free agency at 27 years old next March. The $14 million average on the Steelers' offer would easily make Bell the league's highest-paid back, an honor held at the moment by Devonta Freeman at $8.25 million per year. It's hard to see Bell doing better than this next offseason, but we'll see.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter 

Jul 16 - 6:57 PM
 
Next year David Johnson will be a free agent alongside Bell. Bell’s contract will be based on DJ’s and not the other way around if both are healthy.

 
Next year David Johnson will be a free agent alongside Bell. Bell’s contract will be based on DJ’s and not the other way around if both are healthy.
If ARI plans on keeping DJ they should extend him this season. I assume some team will break the bank for Bell and he should be the highest paid RB.

 

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