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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (3 Viewers)

ConnSKINS26 said:
Looks good to me. OL just sucks 
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My buddy tracked every run he had last year. He had less then 3 yards on 75% of his runs in ‘16... we decided we’re going to take him anyway because his volume and usage in the passing game. As a fantasy/receiving RB he’s good, being judged as a NFL RB... I don’t know.

 
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Bojang0301 said:
My buddy tracked every run he had last year. He had less then 3 yards on 75% of his runs in ‘16... we decided we’re going to take him anyway because his volume and usage in the passing game. As a fantasy/receiving RB he’s good, being judged as a NFL RB... I don’t know.
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Doesn't really negate anything I said. He passes the eye test for me, his OL just sucks. His YPC would be even worse if it wasn't for the work he does after the handoff and before the LOS to get the yards he does get.

 
So am I still supposed to sell high? Stop with this. The guy gets it done. I got to see him in person last week vs the Giants and I thought he looked quick and nimble. Passes the eye test.

 
The Chargers had 1st and goal on the 1 yard line yesterday, handed it off to Gordon 4 straight times, and he didn't score. HC Anthony Lynn today on that:

"If I get a good back on the 1-yard line, I put it on the back," Lynn said. "I don't give a damn what the offensive line does or the fullback, I put it on the back."

"That was absolutely terrible," Lynn said. "Anytime we have the ball on the 1-yard line and I give it to my back four times in a row and we don't get it in, that's awful."
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J R said:
What did you think? In the highlight play, there was a lot of penetration and I wouldn't imagine many guys getting in on that ine at least.
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I watched the game. On the one hand, I thought it was odd that they didn't try anything else, like an outside toss, a fade pass, etc. For example, the next time they got close to the goal line, they scored on a swing pass to Ekeler. On the other hand, I thought exactly what Lynn verbalized -- 4 downs from the 1 yard line with the franchise RB should result in a TD, with no creative play calling required, regardless of how good the opposing DL is.

 
Just Win Baby said:
I watched the game. On the one hand, I thought it was odd that they didn't try anything else, like an outside toss, a fade pass, etc. For example, the next time they got close to the goal line, they scored on a swing pass to Ekeler. On the other hand, I thought exactly what Lynn verbalized -- 4 downs from the 1 yard line with the franchise RB should result in a TD, with no creative play calling required, regardless of how good the opposing DL is.
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Perhaps, and I'm sure you're right, but on the other hand it may be a measure of how poor the coaching is. It is, after all, a non-analytical response.

Damned if you do damned if you don't though. In another thread Sark is getting hammered.

 
Just Win Baby said:
I watched the game. On the one hand, I thought it was odd that they didn't try anything else, like an outside toss, a fade pass, etc. For example, the next time they got close to the goal line, they scored on a swing pass to Ekeler. On the other hand, I thought exactly what Lynn verbalized -- 4 downs from the 1 yard line with the franchise RB should result in a TD, with no creative play calling required, regardless of how good the opposing DL is.
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It's also amazing that he didn't lose yardage on a single run.  Each one was from the 1 yard line.

 
I may be wrong here, but every time he's been questionable heading into Sunday he hasn't performed. Maybe he's having a lot of trouble playing through injuries.

 
The Chargers also continue to have OL problems.

  1. They were planning to start 2nd round pick Lamp at RG, but he was lost for the season in preseason, forcing backup Wiggins into a starting role.
  2. LG Slauson, who was the Chargers' best OL last season, was just lost for the season. He will be replaced by 3rd round pick Feeney, who has played only 50 snaps on the season. Feeney has looked pretty good in those limited snaps, but he is inexperienced. This also creates a depth problem, as no player other than Wiggins, Slauson, and Feeney has played a snap at G for the Chargers this season. Slauson was also the backup center, meaning that role probably also goes to Feeney now.
  3. RT Barksdale has been in and out of the lineup, causing RT Schofield, who was claimed off waivers just before the season, to play 155 snaps so far. Barksdale has been better at pass blocking, Schofield has been better at run blocking, and both have graded poorly overall this season.
  4. Wiggins, Slauson, Barksdale, Schofield, and C Pulley have all graded as below average overall for the season to date, per PFF. The OL has been better overall at pass blocking this year, but is still poor at run blocking. Per Football Outsiders, the Chargers OL ranks #28 in adjusted line yards and #30 in stuffed rank, which mirrors what we are seeing on the field.
I concluded a long time ago that Gordon is a guy who generally gets what is blocked, and his blocking is terrible. That's why he is averaging 3.4 ypc this year and has never had a season in which he averaged 4+ ypc. :shrug:  

 
J R said:
What did you think? In the highlight play, there was a lot of penetration and I wouldn't imagine many guys getting in on that ine at least.
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His O-line didn't do him any favors but he didn't really do them any either.  Kind of just got what was blocked (in this case, nothing) which is pretty indicative of how I've felt about him as a player for a while now.

 
Looks like Patriots will be without DT Malcom Brown (ankle) and CB Eric Rowe (groin), who have been out of practice all week.
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With Hightower out this game (and the rest of the season), and Malcolm Brown likely out this weekend, the already highly suspect Pats D are missing some HUGE pieces in their run defense game plan. Melvin Gordon might not see a better match-up all year. The Chargers should attack them through the ground early and often, and there shouldn't be a substantial amount of resistance on the defensive side of the ball. Even if Brady lights it up, I still expect Gordon to be used extensively in the pass game.

I'm in a truly unique situation where I've got Elliot, Bell, and Freeman all fired up this weekend, so Gordon will be on my bench since I'm a tad bit worried about his foot and my other three guys are in perfect health, but I can't imagine there's another scenario where you're worried about Gordon's production. The guy should feast this weekend. 

 
He's not very good. He looks like a play vs a weak d, and only because of Ekeler's fumble. I don't think the coach is a fan either.

 
I'd support giving Ekeler a lot more playing time at Gordon's expense going forward. Gordon is a solid NFL RB -- better than his poor efficiency stats, IMO -- but he's pretty clearly banged up at this point and could use a lighter load for a while until he recovers (which may not be until the offseason). Meanwhile, Ekeler has earned a chance to be, at the very least, a regular part of a committee.

 
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This was always a risk with Gordon, people just didn't want to see it because they were happy with the fantasy stats...

FreeBaGeL said:
Thomas Jones wasn't a starter his first two years.  His first two years as an actual starter he ran for 4.0 and 4.3ypc.

But yeah, needless to say the fact that we're having to go back more than 2 decades to find guys who even came close to qualifying shows just how rare it is.

Forte is the lone beacon of hope but he also blew Gordon away as a receiver (120 receptions in his first two years to Gordon's pretty average 74).  He also saw a significant improvement in his ypc in year 3 which is actually kind of my point.  People seem pretty confident that Gordon is locked in as the guy but the reality is probably that he likely needs a significant improvement to hold on to the gig.

There just aren't guys running for 3.x YPC in the modern NFL and holding on to the job long term, especially a volume one like Gordon had last year.  It's too easy and cheap to find RBs that can do better than that now, or that can at least split the load which would totally ruin Gordon's volume-dependent value.
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FreeBaGeL said:
Volume based fantasy stud that got a ton of work when everyone else on the team got injured.

We don't really know how the Chargers truly feel about Gordon.  Fantasy owners were certainly happy with his year but other than getting the ball a lot and not getting hurt, were the Chargers?

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Chargers added a back in the 1st half of the draft and I don't think that Gordon is some super secure starter that will 100% have his job a year or two from now.
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Maurile Tremblay said:
I'd support giving Ekeler a lot more playing time at Gordon's expense going forward. Gordon is a solid NFL RB -- better than his poor efficiency stats, IMO -- but he's pretty clearly banged up at this point and could use a lighter load for a while until he recovers (which may not be until the offseason). Meanwhile, Ekeler has earned a chance to be, at the very least, a regular part of a committee.
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I agree with this, and absolutely wouldn't be surprised to see this backfield revert to the Gordon/Woodhead days of old (with Ekeler in the Woodhead role).

I think on Ekeler's final play where he fumbled, he got a taste of what Gordon had been seeing all day (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byXDaaR75MI for reference), which is quite of a bit of a defensive presence on his side of the line of scrimmage, and very little in the way of viable running lanes even with a fullback lead blocking. No running back on the team is going to see success on a decent percentage of their carries with running lanes that look like that, but Gordon isn't helping his case by creating virtually nothing on his own.

I actually don't think the fumble will effect Ekeler's usage very much, going forward. He had both hands on the ball and anticipated the hit okay, but Malik Jackson absolutely stuck that ball with the crown of his helmet about as perfectly as one could hope for. Ekeler could have had stick 'em on and he probably would have lost the ball on that hit.

All that being said, I think Ekeler has absolutely earned more playing time. He's the only player on offense currently providing any level of spark, and the offensive coordinator would be remiss to not include him in the game plan more going forward. I think a lot of the receiving work Gordon was getting earlier in the season is going to fall to Ekeler.

I agree with MT that Gordon is better than his pedestrian efficiency stats show, but the fact remains his poor efficiency, coupled with potentially losing passing down work and catch-up mode snaps to Ekeler, should lead to a pretty massive variance between his floor and his ceiling going forward.

 
I'm rewatching the game and he looks flat out terrible, he's quite obviously hurting. He has no burst, no elusiveness, is unable to break tackles. Oof.

I buy that when healthy, Gordon isn't as bad as his stats look  but how many backs have averaged sub 4ypc in their first three years in the league?

 
SameSongNDance said:
I'm rewatching the game and he looks flat out terrible, he's quite obviously hurting. He has no burst, no elusiveness, is unable to break tackles. Oof.

I buy that when healthy, Gordon isn't as bad as his stats look  but how many backs have averaged sub 4ypc in their first three years in the league?
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In his career, he has 585 rushing attempts. Only 208 of them (36%) have gained 4 or more yards. 16 of them gained 20 or more yards; on his other 569 rushing attempts, he has gained just 1694 rushing yards... an average of 2.98 ypc. That is a large sample size of poor results, and all compiled in what has been a pretty good offense, albeit one with a poor run blocking OL.

I haven't done this sort of exercise with other RBs, but I have to assume this is considerably worse than average, at least for any RB who has been steadily given high volume rushing attempts.

Playing through injury is part of his poor play this season, but (a) his results were fairly similar in his first 2 seasons when he was healthy, and (b) he has yet to make it through an NFL season healthy.

It will be interesting to see if the Chargers pick up his 5th year option this offseason. I wouldn't.

 
SameSongNDance said:
but how many backs have averaged sub 4ypc in their first three years in the league?
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It was something I was harping on all offseason and during this season.

The answer is that there are a small handful of guys that had starts like that and went on to have success on other teams.  Thomas Jones being the best example.

There is basically no one that did it and then maintained the starting role on their current team, which is why I've been saying all year that there is a much greater chance of Gordon being replaced or moving into a committee by next year than people were considering.

 
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The following are the career stats of Gordon and one unnamed player. Who is the unnamed player?

Gordon: 585/2,191/14 rushing and 109/861/6 receiving.

Unnamed: 614/2,023/17 rushing and 113/912/2 receiving.

 
Solid game for Gordon today - 20/80/1 through 3 quarters. I assume the Chargers will pull him given they are up by 37 points, so that will probably complete his day.

Anyway, here is a new article about him: Scouting Exercise: Evaluating Melvin Gordon Based on Eight Key Traits

Melvin Gordon can be extremely frustrating to watch because, more often than not, the plus physical traits he possesses are negated by what is best described as a lack of intangibles, or instincts. In other words, his speed and power are consistently nullified by his lack of vision and decisiveness, which limit his ability to make the most of his opportunities. Add to that a complete lack of lateral quickness and elusiveness and you have yourself a talented but inefficient player who ultimately struggles with shortcomings that aren’t likely to be enhanced through training.

And that’s why I think the Chargers offensive staff finds its self in something of a conundrum when designing their weekly game plans. While the offense is clearly better when it runs through Melvin as a runner and a receiver, his instinctive shortcomings make him inefficient to the point that one could argue he doesn’t deserve the touches they need to give him in order for Melvin and the offense to succeed. I have my issues with how Ken Whisenhunt calls games, but I also don’t envy him.
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Melvin Gordon rushed 21 times for 65 yards and caught 3-of-3 targets for 23 yards in the Chargers' Week 12 Thanksgiving win over Dallas.

Gordon finished with ample volume to make him a top-25 fantasy running back on the week, but he was a liability all night against a Sean Lee-less Cowboys defense he should have shredded. Gordon doesn't make guys miss and is incapable of turning nothing runs into something. He lost nine more touches to Austin Ekeler, whose big-play ability is superior to Gordon's. With all of that said, Gordon is an elite RB1 play each week simply because he gets the ball often and plays in a productive offense.
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From The Good, Bad, and Ugly from Los Angeles’ close win over Cleveland:

The Bad

Melvin Gordon

Aside from his bruising 29-yard run, Gordon was held in check for most of the afternoon. He carried the ball 19 times for 77 yards and failed to get the running game going early. Yet again, the Bolts relied on Rivers rather than hand the ball off to the 2015 first-round selection.

Gordon also allowed Rivers to get absolutely destroyed after he whiffed in pass protection. His lack of pass blocking ability has forced him to lose snaps to Austin Ekeler, who throws his smaller frame at oncoming defenders.
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Chargers GM Tom Telesco confirmed Melvin Gordon's fifth-year option will be picked up.

Gordon averaged below 4.0 yards per carry in each of his first three years, but the Bolts are comfortable with his progress in the passing game and ability to handle a near-full workload. Gordon is again on track to be a first-round fantasy pick, although the Chargers have openly stated they are interested in adding a running back. Gordon turned 25 earlier this month.

Apr 23 - 4:15 PM
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Los Angeles Chargers RB Melvin Gordon has never averaged more than 3.9 yards per rush in his first three NFL seasons.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Gordon's 2.08 yards-before-first-contact-per-rush average ranked 31st in the NFL last year. The team gave him plenty of carries (284) but they need to create more room for him so he can get to top speed and gash defenses on a larger per-carry basis. He could do a little better after contact to boost that number as his 1.81 yards-after-first-contact average ranked 25th in the league in 2017. Gordon is still the centerpiece of the Chargers offense, and they should work to create more space and more big-play opportunities for him in 2018.

 
Interesting player. For a guy with his draft capital and coming off 2 seasons with a 16 game average of 1650 yards and 13 TDs, on one of the better expected offenses with little competition, he seems to really be flying under the radar. Are people scared off by his YPC?

 
Ilov80s said:
Interesting player. For a guy with his draft capital and coming off 2 seasons with a 16 game average of 1650 yards and 13 TDs, on one of the better expected offenses with little competition, he seems to really be flying under the radar. Are people scared off by his YPC?
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I would summarize pros and cons as follows:

Pros:

  • Competition appears minimal for rushing attempts. HC Lynn wants a strong running game, so 250+ carries seems like a lock if healthy, with upside on that number.
  • Offensive line should be improved, particularly in the area of run blocking.
  • Strong passing game should keep opponents from stacking the box as long as playcalling doesn't become too predictable.
  • The Chargers picked up his 5th year option, so they definitely appear committed to Gordon despite the cons below.
Cons:

  • Performance has been inefficient; fantasy success has been dependent on volume.
  • Has dealt with injuries in each of his seasons in the NFL. Even though he did not miss a game last season, he played through a knee injury after having knee surgery last offseason.
  • Although there has been some positive news about Gordon getting more targets this season, IMO he could lose targets to Ekeler and Jackson. Gordon had 83 targets last season, and Ekeler emerged as a strong player in the passing game last season, so I could see Gordon losing targets and Ekeler (35 targets last year) getting more.
 
I think Gordon is the type of back who really needs to run behind a decent offensive line, and he hasn't had one. It should be better this year, but it's still a negative on the whole, IMO.

(Obviously every RB will do better behind a good offensive line than a bad one, but some backs are better at creating yards on their own, making the first guy in the backfield miss. Gordon isn't that type of back. He needs to build steam in the backfield, not make lateral sidesteps before starting forward again.)

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I think Gordon is the type of back who really needs to run behind a decent offensive line, and he hasn't had one. It should be better this year, but it's still a negative on the whole, IMO.

(Obviously every RB will do better behind a good offensive line than a bad one, but some backs are better at creating yards on their own, making the first guy in the backfield miss. Gordon isn't that type of back. He needs to build steam in the backfield, not make lateral sidesteps before starting forward again.)
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:goodposting:

 
The opportunity is juicy He was 3rd in RZ touches last year. I am really starting to warm up to him. After the clear top 5 RBs, it gets kind of interesting. Kamara, Barkley, Gordon, Fournette all have a good case. I am thinking I might learn Gordon. 

 
If the line improves and he has an uptick in passes because Hunter Henry is out for the season, he could be great PPR value at the back of round 1. I think a few hundred more yards from scrimmage, 20 more receptions and a couple more TDs is very possible this year.   

 
Todd Andrews said:
If the line improves and he has an uptick in passes because Hunter Henry is out for the season, he could be great PPR value at the back of round 1. I think a few hundred more yards from scrimmage, 20 more receptions and a couple more TDs is very possible this year.   
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That would make him a great value anywhere in the 1st round. He was RB 5 in PPR last year, if he got those extra numbers his stat line would be 1800 yards, 77 receptions and 14 TDs which would have basically been the equivalent of Leveon Bell last season. 

 
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