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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
So nothing about how Peterson and Gurley arguably 2 of the top RB's in the game having plenty of games with crappy YPC?Just Win Baby said:I have never owned Gordon, so have never traded him away.
Gordon's two big plays this preseason were awesome, and they illustrate reason for optimism. I have posted many times in this thread about reasons we should be optimistic that Gordon will improve this year. However, it hasn't translated to the field in preseason other than those two plays. They happened, and that's great. If he breaks a 39+ yard play every 7-8 touches this season, and the rest of his plays are for 3.5 yards or less, he will be a great fantasy RB.
However, I think that would be a very atypical path to fantasy success, and I don't really expect him to break a 39+ yard run that often. If he instead breaks long runs about as often as he did last year, when he was among the league leaders in 20+ yard runs, that would be 1 20+ yard run for every 30 carries or so. Big difference. I think his preseason pace for big plays is unsustainable, so the hope has to be that the end result lies somewhere in the middle of last year and this preseason.
I hope he has a great season.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm bullish and have been for a few weeks when I saw where he was going in the drafts. I think he can hit more home runs like we saw today. SD is going to be need to score 30 a game and they have weapons and a QB who can chuck it, Gordon fits in well IMO, lot of rookie RBs had a somewhat rough go of it last year.Just Win Baby said:
Gordon is among a handful of guys I like in Year 2 who were somewhat quiet their rookie seasons. Duke Johnson is another example of a guy I like who is a little under the radar right now.
And there will be weeks where he might end up 13/30 but I still think he can make more noise in the passing game. Pass protection was a problem for him last year, this season he seems a lot better.
We are going to be right or have egg on our face but definitely one of the two. I think he will have 8 very good weeks and a few duds mixed in to give his owners pause and concern but at the end of the year, top 12-15 well within reach IMO. Solid RB2
Tau837
Footballguy
No. That is your narrative, not mine. Adrian Peterson has a career average of 4.9 ypc on 2381 carries. Gurley has a small sample size that is more comparable to Gordon's, but he averaged 4.8 ypc.
I wasn't talking about ypc for games, I was talking about percentage of carries for 3 yards or less vs. long runs. Without digging into the carries of Peterson and Gurley in depth, I am forced to assume that they have a much lower percentage of carries for 3 yards or less than Gordon did in his rookie season. So I don't think your narrative is meaningful.
Tau837
Footballguy
Based on what? Training camp reports do not support this, and I doubt he will be asked to pass block much.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I think what you're looking for is RB success rates, at least the bolded is how I interpret it.
Gordon had a success rate of 43% last year. AP had a success rate of 45%, Gurely 43%.
Of course much more is considered in assessing an RB's performance like DVOA and etc.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Here is an article by Arif Hasan that looks at the frequency of RB gaining 3+ yards as well as several other things (to show how good McKinnon has been on a small sample size).
Peterson gets 3 or more yards 54.2% of the time according to this data. Gurley 55.5%. Rashad Jennings leads all RB on this list with 61.8% Incidentally Matt Asiata is pretty high on this list with 59.1%
Gordon didn't make this list because he had fewer than 200 carries.
Peterson gets 3 or more yards 54.2% of the time according to this data. Gurley 55.5%. Rashad Jennings leads all RB on this list with 61.8% Incidentally Matt Asiata is pretty high on this list with 59.1%
Gordon didn't make this list because he had fewer than 200 carries.
massraider
Footballguy
Blick
Footballguy
Here's a lessons learned article from Sports Illustrated last season. I agree with it think he's going to offer very good value considering his ADP.
2015 Lessons Learned
"By all measures, it was a disappointing rookie season for Gordon. The Wisconsin product continued the trend of former Badger star running backs flopping the pros, running for 641 yards and a shocking zero touchdowns on 184 carries. Still, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can buck that trend next season. Gordon averaged 2.22 yards after contact per carry, good for 18th in the league. Gordon was better in that predictive stat than Matt Forte, Devonta Freeman and LeSean McCoy. He also forced 34 missed tackles, seventh most in the league. Gordon forced more missed tackles than Freeman, Thomas Rawls, Mark Ingram, Lamar Miller and Forte. He was the No. 16 back by ADP this season, burning anyone who bought in on the idea of him as a potential Offensive Rookie of the Year. That, as well as the perception of Wisconsin running backs once they reach the pros, will help push Gordon down draft boards in 2016. He’ll prove to be one of the best buys at any position next season."
2015 Lessons Learned
"By all measures, it was a disappointing rookie season for Gordon. The Wisconsin product continued the trend of former Badger star running backs flopping the pros, running for 641 yards and a shocking zero touchdowns on 184 carries. Still, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can buck that trend next season. Gordon averaged 2.22 yards after contact per carry, good for 18th in the league. Gordon was better in that predictive stat than Matt Forte, Devonta Freeman and LeSean McCoy. He also forced 34 missed tackles, seventh most in the league. Gordon forced more missed tackles than Freeman, Thomas Rawls, Mark Ingram, Lamar Miller and Forte. He was the No. 16 back by ADP this season, burning anyone who bought in on the idea of him as a potential Offensive Rookie of the Year. That, as well as the perception of Wisconsin running backs once they reach the pros, will help push Gordon down draft boards in 2016. He’ll prove to be one of the best buys at any position next season."
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
Tau837
Footballguy
I have to admit I am surprised that Gordon was 'successful' on 43% of his runs last season. I watched the games, and it didn't seem like it. I'm not sure how to reconcile Gurley and Gordon having such disparate ypc performances (4.8 and 3.5, respectively), yet having identical success rate.
From the same link, among the 44 players with 100+ rushing attempts, he ranked #32 in success rate and #43 in DVOA. From the link: "A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more." Interesting, considering he was among league leaders in long runs, broken tackles, and yards after contact.
Maybe Gurley had more runs on 2nd and 12 (and the like) while Gordon had more runs on 2nd and 5? That doesn't seem intuitively likely, but if it's true it would explain those figures.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well in that case, why are you making statements like this just a day earlier?
Seems like you are giving people a hard time for having some positive opinions about Gordon based on recent performance.
I don't think there is anything wrong with people changing their minds when they are presented with new information, or information that may contradict their previous opinions. But if you are going to go around calling people out for such things (holding them accountable) it would only be fair to include yourself among them. As your opinion about Gordon last year (based on even less information) was very negative comparing Gordon to Richardson.
Remember when you point your finger four other fingers are pointing back towards you.
I think holding people accountable can help them take responsibility for their words and actions, which helps them grow as a person. We all have out blind spots. That is why I try to share opinions and ideas about FF here in the SP, because I know if I get something wrong or if there is another point of view that I am missing, someone will almost always correct me or present the perspective that I am missing. That is really helpful.
As far as Melvin Gordon is concerned I have been interested in him ever since the year Montee Ball was drafted by the Broncos. Because Gordon seemed head and shoulders above Ball as a RB prospect, and Ball was drafted in the 2nd round that year. But I have not said too much in this thread because MT, JWB, gianmarco and so on are all over it, and I just read their comments and take them for what they are worth. I don't always have something to add to the conversation.
It is good to see Gordon catching the ball well as this is something he didn't do much in College and White seemed like a preferred option as a receiver when they played together in Wisconsin.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
As far as Gordon's big run against the Vikings Mike Zimmer takes responsibility for that. He called a blitz and they were in the wrong play which helped enable Gordon to have a big play. He says the defender blitzing (I forget which player specifically) chose the QB instead of the RB, but he doesn't blame the player for that. Zimmer takes responsibility for making the wrong call.
TripItUp
Footballguy
you need to accurately represent the timeline of my posts, which you conveniently have not
Biabreakable
Footballguy
There are time stamps on all of them. I didn't bring that forward in most recent post because it was a pita to multiquote it. So yeah your right that was out of convenience, but I am not trying to misrepresent anything. If you think there are other posts relevant within the timeline of this thread go ahead an repost your timeline for this accuracy as you put it. I don't see you saying much positive about Gordon prior to that. You said he is a good option if you are using zero RB strategy because Gordon's ADP was so low, a statement I agree with. I don't see such a statement as being a ringing endorsement for Gordon as a player though. Is there any other post that would be relevant to this accuracy?
FWIW most people don't care about this at all, who said what when, who was right who was wrong and so on. If you post enough things you will be on the right side of them at times and the wrong side of them at other times. That is just the way these things go. Predicting the future isn't easy.
Awhile back I recall you saying that you didn't want to go into detail about your thinking regarding a particular player or situation because you were afraid of being heckled or made fun of for presenting that information. I think that kind of thing happens in this forum frequently and I think that hurts the quality of people sharing their ideas here. I mean almost all of my posts in this forum are a form of me just thinking aloud. Some times those thoughts are good, some times they are bad. I just believe in myself and being honest with myself enough that I don't worry too much about what other people think of it. Now recently I see you taking other posters to task as kind of a game for the fun of it. That behavior is the same as what caused you to feel reluctant to share not fully formed ideas before. So I am taking time here to point this out to you, with the hope that understanding this will cause you to treat other posters here with more respect and that this respect can lead to more posters feeling free to speak their mind moving forward.
rdrouyn
Footballguy
FYI, I timed Gordon with a stopwatch on that 39 yard touchdown. I timed him at 4.4, which is faster than his combine speed. It's a bit different than the combine since he already built some momentum on that run, but my point is that he is fast. Training with AP must've worked out well.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
thehornet
Footballguy
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
BUMP.
Gordon looking great and rewarding those who believed in a bounce-back year with little competition behind him.
SOD candidate.
Gordon looking great and rewarding those who believed in a bounce-back year with little competition behind him.
SOD candidate.
Tau837
Footballguy
Wow, Gordon looks good. He looks like a completely different player than last season. Much more decisive and confident today than last season.
It doesn't hurt that the offensive line looks 10x better than at any point within the past 2 seasons. If they stay healthy, that will only help Gordon.
It doesn't hurt that the offensive line looks 10x better than at any point within the past 2 seasons. If they stay healthy, that will only help Gordon.
spider321
Footballguy
Do you want your crow roasted or fried?Wow, Gordon looks good. He looks like a completely different player than last season. Much more decisive and confident today than last season.
It doesn't hurt that the offensive line looks 10x better than at any point within the past 2 seasons. If they stay healthy, that will only help Gordon.
Tau837
Footballguy
You have now posted something like this in 3 different threads. I have posted several times in this thread that I thought there were reasons for optimism that he would be better this season. I also posted my concerns about him. Today, the reasons for optimism proved out. I'm glad as a Chargers fan.
spider321
Footballguy
Heck, you bashed him in 1,000 threads before today.
You deserve some backlash today.
Tau837
Footballguy
I doubt I have posted anything substantive about him in 5 threads, and very little of it was bashing. I bashed the Chargers for trading up to take him, and I still think they should not have done it. Early on, I posted that I thought his upside would be limited in his first 1-2 seasons due to Woodhead and McCoy's RBBC approach, though I expected he would be quite a bit better than he was as a rookie. I posted about his weaknesses coming out of college, many of which showed up as negatives on the field last year. I bashed him some during and immediately after the season. For most of this offseason, I posted about reasons for optimism that he would improve this season but also about my concerns about his knee and his propensity for a high percentage of short runs. And here we are.spider321 said:
He looks great, and I'm happy about that.
If this is how you get enjoyment on the first NFL regular season Sunday, have at it. I'm happy to discuss Gordon but not particularly interested in continuing this tangent of conversation.
spider321
Footballguy
Great. Don't continue, then.
You bashed him, and bashed him, and bashed him...
Now, when it's time to dine on a little crow, you choke on the bones.
I get it.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
Ummmmm ... maybe I'm missing something. I did not watch this game too intently. I was at a bar and was mainly watching the Jets and Bills games early. When looking at the box score, I see a stat line of 14 rushes for 57 yards and 2 TD's with ZERO catches. What would he be eating crow about? The fact that Gordon got TD's of 1 and 6 yards? Because if he didn't get those, he scores 5.7 points on the day. Woodhead almost doubled his touches and outscored him with a stat line of 16 rushes for 89 yards and 5 catches for 31 yards and a TD. It sounds like Just Win's concerns are valid. If we are strictly going by yesterday's game (as you appear to be), then Woodhead is actually the back to own in this offense ... again.Great. Don't continue, then.
You bashed him, and bashed him, and bashed him...
Now, when it's time to dine on a little crow, you choke on the bones.
I get it.
OC Zed
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
This was very concerning to me. I watched some of the Charger game and Woodhead was pretty much a 3 down back in the 2nd half. I thought Gordon may of been hurt but then they would stroll him out there every 3 or 4 series for a play or 2. I think Gordon is a sell right now, very disappointing.
spider321
Footballguy
These are always great! Lol.
Thanks, Mik!
...and JWB was defecating on Gordon every time he was mentioned around here for months, like he was paid good money to do it.
He was not just mentioning concerns here and there.
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mikmak8902
Footballguy
My point was that the guy isn't going to get 2 TD's every game. If an elite fantasy player scores 2 TD's in a game you expect 25+ points. The guy scored 17 in my league.
Woodhead had more carries.
Woodhead had more rushing yards.
Woodhead had more yards per carry.
Woodhead had more catches.
Woodhead had more receiving yards.
Woodhead had more plays.
Woodhead had more fantasy points.
If you are just going to jump into fantasy football forums and try to blast Gordon doubters, you should probably make sure he was at least the best RB on his own team in said game.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
Gotcha ... I don't remember what he was saying and won't bother to look. I get your point though. I just think you may have jumped the gun a bit in trying to serve this crow.
spider321
Footballguy
Probably so, but he wasn't even willing to nibble on it a little.
Obviously, he will excuse himself from the table once the meal is ready.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I wish I understood why Whiz has gone from a guy who created offenses around powerhouse backs in Pittsburgh, Arizona and SD and since in TEN and now in SD is just splitting the run game into time shares. Gordon is the guy, let him roll. This feels like it's going to be like the situation that Miami had with Lamar Miler last year, which if so would be very frustrating.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Can someone get this spider kook to S T F U already? Good god what an annoyance.
Woodhead is going to get hurt.. and when he does Gordon becomes a top tier RB 2 /Borderline #1.. until than he is a flex play
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