Amused to Death
Footballguy
He was a FA in my salary cap league a couple of years ago. No one wanted him so I picked him up for the league minimum ($1.00) and gave him a 5 year max contract. I still have him for another few years if I want him.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Rashaad Penny, CAR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bojang0301
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wonder if he's ever been on the WW in at least a 24 man roster / 12 Team dynasty league, which is what I play. I'm in 6 dynasty leagues and I don't recall him ever being on the waiver wire. Obviously there are types of leagues where he could be, but I just haven't seen it yet.
Last edited by a moderator:
Amused to Death
Footballguy
He had been cut during the previous offseason making him a FA. I nominated him for $1 late in the auction and no one bid $1.50, so he was mine.
We go 280 players deep (10 teams, 28 roster spots).
TartanLion
Footballguy
I got him in my super flex league about half way Into the season, someone dropped him to the waiver wire and I instantly took the chance and grabbed him for $21 of my 100. Just checked he was dropped on Nov 17th I got him Nov 21st. Funny thing is, out of this league of 12, it’s the one person I know, he’s a total dynasty league geek, he just finally got bored of waiting for any form of result, and by seasons end he was livid with himself.
Squad sizes 26, 4 man taxi squad for rookies, couple of IR/Covid spots
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think he plays in the leagues where you cut down to 15 in the off-season.
I haven’t seen him on waivers - but have seen him traded as a throw in guy. My leagues have 25-30 roster spots.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Ok, that explains it. Most of my leagues are 12 team / 24 - 26 man rosters and the other is 14 team / 24 man roster.
Last edited by a moderator:
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
He was on waivers mid season in my Dynasty (12 teams, 18 man rosters). Lucky pickup for his late run.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I decided to do some research and I was wrong about one league I'm in, a DEVY league 25 man roster. Penny was dropped and picked up in that league. However, as a DEVY league you can roster college players and that takes up roster space.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In my league he was dealt as a toss-in to one deal, then a week later traded 1:1 for Gauge.
not exactly earth shattering / league altering deals.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
it seems the cutoff point is probably around 12 team x 24 to 26 or greater rosters and most of them not DEVY. I suppose there could be an outlier or two. If a 12 team league with 22 or less we see some instances of Penny being dropped.
Last edited by a moderator:
steelcityman
Footballguy
I traded Penny yesterday to the Walker owner, since I had Montgomery and got Herbet.
So we each have our handcuffs.
But I really dont want any parts of Seattle while Lock or Geno are QB.
So we each have our handcuffs.
But I really dont want any parts of Seattle while Lock or Geno are QB.
habsfan
Footballguy
If the people in my league oversteer on Wilson's departure, I'll definitely be interested in Seattle, particularly the RBs. It's been touched on recently in the Saquon thread and there's that James Robinson guy who was pretty good in the middle of hot garbage. Just sayin'...
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I think there is a difference in situation though. Minshew had some shining moments; which Drew Lock is completely capable of but James Robinson only had Dare Ogunbowale to compete with for snaps. I could see a deadlock 50/50 split in Seattle by October. Then, what are you willing to give up for a Rashaad Penny?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At least for 4 games until Penny has a soft tissue injury.
i see SEA as more of a split with Walker getting a lot of love, but who knows at this point.
If I were a competing team I’d probably pay that for Penny though for the ~3% chance he has a period of extended good health.
Injuries can happen to anyone so I don't play that game.
Walker will get playing time and might be a full fledged RBBC but there is no way Penny is merely a handcuff as there is no way Herbert is not just a handcuff is my point.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
sure, but they sure seem to happen to Penny a lot more often than most though. Hard to ignore the track record.
The Seahawks didn’t when they drafted Walker. Also possible Carson plays (though it’s looking less likely)
I agree - if healthy, I see a 50-50 split. With a team led by Lock or Geno, and a really shaky OL, that might not be great. But like I said, I’m on the Penny side of that deal.
No not for me. He needed a lot of time to get over that ACL injury and those can lead to overcompensation first year or two while recovering which leads to other injuries and most of his soft tissue injures were post ACL. He only had one soft tissue injury before the ACL.
He's missed 9 games total in his career for soft tissue injury, with 6 of those games after his ACL. He missed 3 games his second year with a hamstring. That's the one soft tissue injury before the ACL and then he missed 5 games last year with a calf strain and another with a hamstring.
When SEA drafted him one of the reasons they cited was his durability in college. Sometimes this stuff is just random luck but I believe him when he says it's the best he's ever felt, at least best he's felt since tearing his ACL. IMO he's just as likely to have that luck swing back in his favor.
I don't think it will be 50/50, I think the split will favor Penny when both are healthy but close enough to be considered a RBBC. And as for the state of the SEA offensive line. That OL was opening up huge holes for him last year and since have added two premium draft picks, not a concern for me.. The QB is a concern and as such the offense in general but in the context of this trade for Herbert I think most would agree that offense is worse.
I would add that because of what I have outlined here I believe Penny to be one of the best RB value's going in drafts right now and I'm someone who does like Walker and have invested in him. So I'm not remotely anti-Walker, just think people got a little to carried away with the new addition.
And I've been drafting teams all off-season on assumption that Carson is done. Based on what I read yesterday that belief has never been stronger. If I'm wrong good for Carson and I'll do a 180 and avoid the heck out of this mess in redraft.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
agree with this part.
I’m not that high on the SEA backfield in general, but to each their own.
steelcityman
Footballguy
i dont, but i dont really care, Penny was like my #5 RB, so I took the insurance policy, and Herbert had some nice games last year.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Future is brighter for Herbert than Penny too. I've played the game with him and injuries. I've lost faith in Penny and would be willing to roll the dice with Herbert as a cuff/future starter.
Other then being younger how does Herbert have a brighter future?
Where you say you lost faith in Penny I can find countless others, me included, that be won championships and/or boatloads of money riding him at end of last season.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Penny Burrow and davante carried me to a title against amon ra, dk and Jonathan Taylor in my league's highest scoring finals ever
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I do not expect to change your mind, but Herbert is younger and has a clearer path to increased carries than Penny. Chicago didn't just spend a 2nd round pick on Herbert's replacement. Though they're both considered bad teams but my faith in Justin Fields is much stronger than my faith in Drew Lock or Geno Smith. Two years from now we will either be listening to the Walker owners talking about how they wish Penny would just go away or we are listening to Penny owners talk about the career that never panned out.
Seattle doesn't seem to have the confidence in Penny or they'd have invested in the many holes they have on that team versus KW3 in the 2nd.
bostonfred
Footballguy
This is what people said about Carson when penny was drafted. Carson kept the starting job for four more years. Maybe Penny does the same. Probably not.
Herbert might get a shot but the number of running backs who look good as a backup but never get a shot is a lot higher than the ones who do.
The talk about Penny during his hot stretch last year was that he'd learned a ton from Adrian Peterson when they were together. Maybe he changed something in the gym or in his running style that keeps him healthy and lets him live up to that first round draft capital. Maybe that's just wishful thinking. Usually a guy who has a job right now and a chance is worth more than a guy with a chance, but Herbert is younger so it could work out. I think you should have been able to get a little more for Penny but if you like your guy then get him.
zamboni
Footballguy
Herbert showed a lot of promise, but he was also selected by the previous coaching staff and didn’t cost a lot of draft capital. So while the new staff may like Herbert over Montgomery, there’s also a fair possibility that the new staff lets Montgomery walk and gets their own RB next year.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Then, would Herbert be in any less of a situation than Penny is with, Walker being drafted?
I think it is extremely likely the Bears let Montgomery walk and draft a RB, but I'll take my chances that pick is later than a 2nd rounder, like what Seattle did with Walker. Maybe the Bears spend a 2nd on a new RB (doubtful with the holes on that roster) but then Herbert isn't in any worse of a situation than Penny. For that, I'll take potential outcome verses a decided situation.
Penny probably would have taken over for Carson but he couldn't stay on the field. I'd argue the Seahawks feel the same way about Penny, based on their recent draft. I am in agreement, in some circles you can get more for a starter; which for the moment Penny is, but if you value Herbert more... just go and get your guy and not let a deal die over a 3rd or 4th round pick.
I fully admit, I could be completely wrong and will admit that, but I really just see Penny with KW3 nipping at his heels every week.
Thank you for replying.
Being younger does for sure help Herbert and in terms of his future that is a plus but I don't agree on the clearer path. You are talking about 2 years from now but Penny is a FA after this season and that's the key. It's a deep FA and a deep draft class for RB's coming up. It's quite possible that neither of these two are atop any teams depth chart in 2023. The major difference in the two to me in terms of forecasting next few years after 2022 is that Herbert is the property of the Bears for two more seasons after this one. He'll need Monty to leave and then survive FA and the draft and it's not like Herbert has some kind of major draft pedigree or commitment. Whereas Penny would be in a position to pick his spot. In this situation I for sure side with the player who has some control over his situation versus the one who is at the mercy of the front office/coaching staff.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Both of them not being atop of their depth chart are extremely possible. Neither have really proven to do it over the course of a season, but I disagree with a guy being rostered for 4 years as a disadvantage. Nothing is guaranteed for Penny in FA. It's not like we are talking about a proven bell cow back selecting his next destination. He hasn't done enough in his career to tell me he will have his pick of the litter. I'm sure the Bears will have to bring in a RB if/when Motgomery departs but I don't see them making a big signing or using a ton of draft capital when they have so many holes on the team. Everything you've said is absolutely within range of outcomes, but fantasy is about navigating through these risks and making the best decision for your team and trading Penny for Herbert isn't the worst trade.menobrown said:
rockaction
Footballguy
Strange. I've got Penny > Herbert by a decent amount, and I roster Herbert. As was pointed out, even though Monty is leaving, both team and coaching staff have little invested in Herbert. Penny, on the other hand, blew away all analytical measures last year. He was a different runner and a difference maker.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I am largely drafting Walker in most redrafts/BBs here in May/June and fading Penny. I will likely end up with more Penny in my August/September drafts. I'm not really going to try and defend that posture, I think it may have been a mistake for me to fade Penny during this time. But I would definitely favor him over Herbert, who I like a lot. I do think Herbert has a better chance of being relevant in December than Penny and that Walker will be the Seahawk RB to own in December but it is just a guess.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I feel like both walker and pennies ceilings are capped for each other’s presence, and for the fact that I’m expecting Seattle’s offense to be solidly mediocre.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
That could very well be true. You can lock the two up in redraft for a 7th and a 9th. Something like that. Then if clarity ever develops you would have the lead back in a terrible offense (that will run the ball a lot). I think that fear and uncertainty is already priced in. If one of them fell in the shower tomorrow you would see the other's ADP rise to like the 4th or something.
I did the same thing with Fournette and Jones last year (grabbed both) because there was a lot of talk of Jones tearing it up in camp. They could both be had in late rounds. Clarity did develop and Fournette was a league winner in a very good offense.
More serious response is that if you go zeroRB or some lightRB derivation, I don't think these guys are bad targets. And I have found myself drafting something like zeroRB a lot this early offseason. I typically go more robust RB come August. When I am not taking RBs early, I will take any later that have a chance for good volume, and both these guys are solid picks in that sense. But I expect Penny to start the season and Walker to finish it. If they really are a bad offense (or a bad team), they will be more likely to rest veterans later in the year and give rookies more time. It is the natural arc for rookies anyway, if they are decent, which of course we don't really know yet.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
My TLDR is that this uncertainty is baked in to their price. If I go robust RB then I am taking WRs and other positions instead of these guys. If I am going zero RB then anybody will do in later rounds and they are as good of targets as any. In dynasty Penny is probably a great win now buy low if you can. Walker is a premium price and I guess we will see how it goes, but today I would think most people would agree that hold is the word for him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t disagree with any of this, but it does feel a bit risky if you only manage to get one or the other.
Penny is pretty fragile, and I can’t imagine the Seahawks spent a second round pick on a guy they’re not going to want to use.
They’re both pretty cheap, but in that 7-9th round range, I would want to lock up at least flex player. It seems like there’s a good probability of picking the wrong guy. Or picking the right guy who becomes the wrong guy.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I generally stay away from locking up a backfield at that price. I liked doing it with TB last year. Obviously different quality of offenses but Seattle really is going to run the ball a lot and there is room for high volume for both RBs. But yeah I typically hate drafting two guys like that. Clarity is a big if and if they truly evenly split it, which is probably the most likely outcome, then you're stuck there at lineup time staring at both names and beating yourself up saying why the #### did I do this to myself? Those are the kinds of decisions I actively try to avoid by avoiding that situation in the draft in the first place. Especially when I have so many teams. I like to make easy decisions if I can.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All of this. plus you know Homer & DJ Dallas will get some run, too. Carrol be like that.
Marauder
Footballguy
Carroll's not afraid to lean on the guy he thinks gives him the best chance to win regardless of draft position. He proved that by consistently relying on Carson even when Penny was healthy.
None of us knows how the RB position in SEA will play out but it's well within the range of possible outcomes that Penny runs with the job and Walker is relegated to backup duty. Of course, the reverse is also within the range of outcomes.
I don't know if this means they are both target players or avoid players at their ADP's. For me, when I start getting heavily into my redraft leagues I expect I'll be drafting a lot of both players as my general redraft philosophy is to draft for upside.
Just as an aside, An oddity that I just noticed is that in Penny's first three and a half years in the league after being a first round pick, he appeared in 27 games but didn't get a single start.
None of us knows how the RB position in SEA will play out but it's well within the range of possible outcomes that Penny runs with the job and Walker is relegated to backup duty. Of course, the reverse is also within the range of outcomes.
I don't know if this means they are both target players or avoid players at their ADP's. For me, when I start getting heavily into my redraft leagues I expect I'll be drafting a lot of both players as my general redraft philosophy is to draft for upside.
Just as an aside, An oddity that I just noticed is that in Penny's first three and a half years in the league after being a first round pick, he appeared in 27 games but didn't get a single start.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
jtd13
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Maybe you should ask Carrol. We all know Penny won’t hold up at 20+ carries a game. That’s the real joke here.What an original joke! How do you come up with these??
/s
