Redraft Q: why do some players get an “injury discount” while others don’t? (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Seems like every year in redraft there are players who were injured the prior year, and as a whole the FF community assigns added risk to that player & devalues him, while others either remain the same or take a smaller hit ADP-wise.

For example, Kittle was a mid-second pick last year, for example. He’s still Kittle, yet he’s going in the mid-to-late 3rd this year, while some players who were hurt are at or above the same ADP.

Meanwhile, Barkley missed all of last year & is being “eased along” yet folks are taking him at 1.07 - 1.10

Without focusing on these two players specifically I’m just wondering in general why some players seem to be immune from the “injury discount”. Is it just random? 

 

[travdogg]

I think its a situational thing. I know you didn't just want to address those 2 examples, but in Kittle's case, he's going later, because he has an uncertain QB situation, his target share is likely lower with more quality weapons around, and Waller stepping up, making it so that Kittle isn't a clear top-2 TE.

In Barkley's case, its that Wayne Gallman was a top-10 rusher in the 2nd half of last season, and Barkley is like 3 times the player Gallman is. He's a rare RB who has 3rd down and GL work, and nobody taking carries from him. If he were healthy, he might be going #2 overall.

I'm personally someone who doesn't really care about injuries so much. Sometimes that burns me, but usually it seems to end up in getting somebody for cheaper than I should. I'll likely be higher than consensus on guys such as Mixon, Golladay, Sutton, and Beckham. 

 

[wgoldsph]

It's really rabdom.  Why doesn't Cook have the injury prone label any more?  He's never started a full season in his career, but nobody talks about it when putting him at no2 in redraft (as you've seen in previous posts) as a huge red flag.  But CMC getting hurt for the first time last year is a big problem?   Fuggetaboutit.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think its a situational thing. I know you didn't just want to address those 2 examples, but in Kittle's case, he's going later, because he has an uncertain QB situation, his target share is likely lower with more quality weapons around, and Waller stepping up, making it so that Kittle isn't a clear top-2 TE.

In Barkley's case, its that Wayne Gallman was a top-10 rusher in the 2nd half of last season, and Barkley is like 3 times the player Gallman is. He's a rare RB who has 3rd down and GL work, and nobody taking carries from him. If he were healthy, he might be going #2 overall.

I'm personally someone who doesn't really care about injuries so much. Sometimes that burns me, but usually it seems to end up in getting somebody for cheaper than I should. I'll likely be higher than consensus on guys such as Mixon, Golladay, Sutton, and Beckham. 

Sure, but they’re also talking about easing Barkley in, keeping his touches managed.

and then I look at guys like EE, who’s rapidly rising ADP beguiles me. especially in light of Pollard’s emergence & coaches saying he’s not going to be a 20-25 touch guy, that they’re saving that for the playoffs, etc. plus the pass-happy coach & OC - even with Dak, Zeke wasn’t lighting up the league last year. Other than some gimme TDs he was kind of mediocre. Lots of drops, not a ton of burst, no long runs. I mean, other than being healthy, literally everything I’ve seen about Zeke has been a red flag to me. I wouldn’t touch him in the 1st round, but here we are with him going 7-8-9 overall. 

again, not to focus on specific players, but using Zeke as an example, he should be a 2nd or (gasp!) 3rd rounder this year based on last season, a likely RBBC & the peripheral issues the Cowboys have.

Is it that people believe Zeke’s gonna “bounce back” to his elite days?  He had such a heavy workload early in his career - his best days might be behind him. Just one man’s opinion of course, and based on group-think ADP, I’m clearly on an island there. 

Are people talking themselves into taking him in the 1st? Early mocks I was consistently landing him 1.12-2.05. 

Again, not to make this topic about Zeke, but it just seems like some players are immune to the discount. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's really rabdom.  Why doesn't Cook have the injury prone label any more?  He's never started a full season in his career, but nobody talks about it when putting him at no2 in redraft (as you've seen in previous posts) as a huge red flag.  But CMC getting hurt for the first time last year is a big problem?   Fuggetaboutit.

Perfect example. I have concerns about both of those dudes. And Kamara’s offense, and Henry’s workload the last 2 years. Still, those guys are being talked about as no-brained 1-4 by most writers, while other guys who seemingly have less concerns are downgraded for more minor issues. 

Look at Mixon going early to mid 2nd. Here’s a dude with a foot injury that knocked him out for a long stretch last year, runs behind a pretty bad OL & by virtue of perceived opportunity is still going top 17 overall. And all I hear from writers is sunshine & butterflies. No one mentions how fickle foot injuries can be, or that his OL is not what could be described as “good” for a running back. 

It seems so selective.

 

[zamboni]

I think there's always recency bias involved. Remember when "Fragile" Fred Taylor got the injury tag all the time- and he was injured aplenty during his first few years - until he became pretty durable. But I think many still gave him an injury discount all through his career.

 

[tangfoot]

Sure, but they’re also talking about easing Barkley in, keeping his touches managed.

and then I look at guys like EE, who’s rapidly rising ADP beguiles me. especially in light of Pollard’s emergence & coaches saying he’s not going to be a 20-25 touch guy, that they’re saving that for the playoffs, etc. plus the pass-happy coach & OC - even with Dak, Zeke wasn’t lighting up the league last year. Other than some gimme TDs he was kind of mediocre. Lots of drops, not a ton of burst, no long runs. I mean, other than being healthy, literally everything I’ve seen about Zeke has been a red flag to me. I wouldn’t touch him in the 1st round, but here we are with him going 7-8-9 overall.

In the games with Dak, I believe Zeke was averaging the most targets he had ever seen in his career.  That is projected to continue, and covers a ton of warts in the rest of his game, if they in fact exist.  Analytics say that Pollard was a JAG last year, regardless of his perceived superior play.

 

[travdogg]

Sure, but they’re also talking about easing Barkley in, keeping his touches managed.

and then I look at guys like EE, who’s rapidly rising ADP beguiles me. especially in light of Pollard’s emergence & coaches saying he’s not going to be a 20-25 touch guy, that they’re saving that for the playoffs, etc. plus the pass-happy coach & OC - even with Dak, Zeke wasn’t lighting up the league last year. Other than some gimme TDs he was kind of mediocre. Lots of drops, not a ton of burst, no long runs. I mean, other than being healthy, literally everything I’ve seen about Zeke has been a red flag to me. I wouldn’t touch him in the 1st round, but here we are with him going 7-8-9 overall. 

again, not to focus on specific players, but using Zeke as an example, he should be a 2nd or (gasp!) 3rd rounder this year based on last season, a likely RBBC & the peripheral issues the Cowboys have.

Is it that people believe Zeke’s gonna “bounce back” to his elite days?  He had such a heavy workload early in his career - his best days might be behind him. Just one man’s opinion of course, and based on group-think ADP, I’m clearly on an island there. 

Are people talking themselves into taking him in the 1st? Early mocks I was consistently landing him 1.12-2.05. 

Again, not to make this topic about Zeke, but it just seems like some players are immune to the discount. 

In Zeke's case, I think you may be punishing him too much for last season, when his starting QB and entire OL got injured for most of last season. Last year is, at least for me, his absolute floor. Some people may believe he'll bounce back to his elite days with everyone healthy, I don't, but I have no issues with him as a mid 1st rounder. I don't think RBBC is a concern at all for him, and that seems confirmed with Pollard playing in the HOF game.

I have zero injury concerns with CMC, he's been completely healthy throughout his career other than 2 fluke injuries last year, that were unrelated. I have some concerns with Cook, but the upside is simply too high. Likewise, Henry is a lock to come down from last season, but if he drops to say 1500-15, he's still come down quite a bit and is worthy of where he's being picked.

I think if you nitpick everyone, you can find a flaw with everyone, especially at RB. I will say, if you look at your 1st round pick as not a place you can win your league, but a place you can lose it if you miss, then maybe just take Kelce. He's as safe as it gets.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In the games with Dak, I believe Zeke was averaging the most targets he had ever seen in his career.  That is projected to continue, and covers a ton of warts in the rest of his game, if they in fact exist.  Analytics say that Pollard was a JAG last year, regardless of his perceived superior play.

I was the proud owner of Zeke last year in redraft. 

He was the RB3 while Dak was on the field, and let me tell you, a lot of it was fool’s gold. 

He dropped a career high # of passes, looked winded after a couple carries, consistently tapped out of games for Pollard, and never looked like Zeke of old. He lacked burst & his long speed was gone.

was that because of COVID? Was it because of his workload? 

hard to know. 

Also he was hit in the backfield a lot. I recent read more than ever in his career. That OL isn’t greatly improved, though it might be healthier this year. 

Still - is it a good thing to say Zeke is only as good as his OL? I thought he was supposed to be better than that. 

Anyway, I’m not trying to make this topic about any one player - I’m just seeing very little discount with Zeke now being talked about as a top 7 pick as compared to other players. 

Maybe your comments are proving my point - that it’s about the upside and “what if”s that some players have. A track record that says they’re capable of doing more with less, or a perception that they’ll get X% more receptions to justify it.

But the reality is that none, some, or all of that might be true. Personally I’m not touching Elliott this year at top 7 price. Not because I got burned by him last year (ok, I aM a little bitter) but because of what I saw before he got hurt. He never really passed the eye test, despite getting more receptions. 

I’m sure we’ll look back at this topic at season’s end and have a good laugh at my expense for how wrong I was when Zeke finishes as the RB1, and I’m ok with that. I just don’t think he’s worth where he’s being drafted, and I don’t think he’s getting the appropriate discount for what he showed last year, even prior to Dak going down. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I have zero injury concerns with CMC, he's been completely healthy throughout his career other than 2 fluke injuries last year, that were unrelated. I have some concerns with Cook, but the upside is simply too high. Likewise, Henry is a lock to come down from last season, but if he drops to say 1500-15, he's still come down quite a bit and is worthy of where he's being picked.

perhaps you should. He’s not the biggest dude, and he’s had an enormous workload. Maybe that had something to do with his injuries last year. people discount Henry for that but a much smaller player like CMC is immune from workload risk discussion? That’s part of my point.

people draft for upside. I get why CMC goes 1.01

But brushing off risk to a guy like CMC based on a healthy career is not logical. Past performance is a terrible predictor of future events, or something like that.

Having just read the Harris almanac section on running backs, he’s expressed the same concern about CMC if they continue to bang him between the tackles. The hits add up. 

I’m not predicting an injury, I’m just saying he’s being called the no-brainer 1.01 despite his injuries costing him (and his shareholders) quite a bit of missed time last year. CMC logically should be in the 3-4-5 range, yet here he is, locked & loaded at 1.01

Yet again; not focusing on this specific player - just the big picture of why CMC isn’t an injury discount this year. 

One could describe all injuries as flukey. But we have statistical evidence that shows X# of carries over Y amount of time =  

 

[Ilov80s]

Kittle’s fall isn’t just for the injury. He plays a less desirable position, has been passed up by Waller, has uncertainty at QB and lots of competition for targets.

 

[-jb-]

@Hot Sauce Guy would love to see your round one rankings. I don't disagree with any of your points, but you will still be required to shoot your shot in round 1, unless you trade out of it.

 

[Ilov80s]

@Hot Sauce Guy would love to see your round one rankings. I don't disagree with any of your points, but you will still be required to shoot your shot in round 1, unless you trade out of it.

Best season I’ve ever had was getting the 10th pick and trading out of my 1st and 2nd round picks. People laughed at me and then they saw my draft and were like “oh #### your team is ridiculous”. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

@Hot Sauce Guy would love to see your round one rankings. I don't disagree with any of your points, but you will still be required to shoot your shot in round 1, unless you trade out of it.

I haven’t quite completed them yet. Still very on the fence about some players. 

I’m sure I have more WRs in my 1st round than most. I’d just rather have Adams, Diggs, Tyreek, Hopkins, Ridley, & AJB than one of the “upside but red flag” RBs, especially knowing I can snag a Chubb or Mixon or (late 2nd) Gibson on the way back. 

We don’t trade draft picks in this league - it’s IDP 29 round live draft & takes ~7 hours, so we voted out draft trades years ago because drafts were stretching into 10-12 hour marathons & we all have lives to live. Some of the wives were getting pissed. lol.

But we do have KDS-style, so if you pull the 4th pick, you could take 12, if no one else has. 

I’m leaning towards that more and more if it becomes an option for me. Won’t know until just before we draft.

I probably as of this moment have it (PPR)

Cook, CMC, Kamara, Henry, Adams, AJones, Diggs, Hill, Kelce, Ridley, Hopkins, AJB. 

If it looks like Wentz will be back week 2 I probably bump Taylor up to 12.

I hear what you’re saying - and if I get the 1.01, I’ll probably be a sheep and take CMC or Cook (I like Cook just a stitch more due to less change in his situation). This time of year I throw a lot of stuff at the wall and see what sticks. 

Contrary to possible perception, I don’t “KNOW” anything. I just think of a lot of things. Often I can be convinced I’m wrong. Sometimes I can’t shake a feeling. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Best season I’ve ever had was getting the 10th pick and trading out of my 1st and 2nd round picks. People laughed at me and then they saw my draft and were like “oh #### your team is ridiculous”. 

I was soundly mocked for taking 11 instead of 4 a couple years ago. That was the last time I made the LCG. 

I saw no more or less risk in the 11th pick than the top 4, but I did see the opportunity to get picks 11 & 14 and have an immediate advantage. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I was soundly mocked for taking 11 instead of 4 a couple years ago. That was the last time I made the LCG. 

I saw no more or less risk in the 11th pick than the top 4, but I did see the opportunity to get picks 11 & 14 and have an immediate advantage. 

Yeah I firmly believe more dart throws is best.

 

[acarey50]

Still - is it a good thing to say Zeke is only as good as his OL? I thought he was supposed to be better than that. 

Anyway, I’m not trying to make this topic about any one player - I’m just seeing very little discount with Zeke now being talked about as a top 7 pick as compared to other players. 

Food for thought, but are you sure Zeke at 7 isn't the discounted price? You've already addressed that if not Zeke, than who, but it was just a year or so ago that he was a consensus top 2 pick, and as mentioned last year he was in the top 3 for the few games with a healthy Dak, even if you call it fool's gold, for fantasy who cares what the warts are if the fantasy points keep coming.

I’m sure I have more WRs in my 1st round than most. I’d just rather have Adams, Diggs, Tyreek, Hopkins, Ridley, & AJB than one of the “upside but red flag” RBs, especially knowing I can snag a Chubb or Mixon or (late 2nd) Gibson on the way back. 

And this is why in many leagues Zero-RB (or the "Hero-RB") has taken off and in many cases is shown to be a pretty viable strategy. Granted the degree to which that strategy (or any strategy really) has a chance to be viable is extremely league dependent - how many required RBs, how many WRs, PPR or not, TE-Premium or not, Best Ball or not.

FWIW, at least in the FFPC drafts I've been doing, Gibson and CHubb seem to be creeping up to late 1st/early 2nd ADP, Mixon still hanging out in the later 2nd, and WRs are slipping - Hopkins, Ridley and AJB are are generally available in the back half of the 2nd and even into the turn. Now, TE premium obviously affects this as Kelce and Waller are 1st round picks with Kittle late 1st/early 2nd, but it shows how important it is to understand the specifics of each individual league you are in.

 

[Tom Hagen]

perhaps you should. He’s not the biggest dude, and he’s had an enormous workload. Maybe that had something to do with his injuries last year. people discount Henry for that but a much smaller player like CMC is immune from workload risk discussion? That’s part of my point.

people draft for upside. I get why CMC goes 1.01

But brushing off risk to a guy like CMC based on a healthy career is not logical. Past performance is a terrible predictor of future events, or something like that.

Having just read the Harris almanac section on running backs, he’s expressed the same concern about CMC if they continue to bang him between the tackles. The hits add up. 

I’m not predicting an injury, I’m just saying he’s being called the no-brainer 1.01 despite his injuries costing him (and his shareholders) quite a bit of missed time last year. CMC logically should be in the 3-4-5 range, yet here he is, locked & loaded at 1.01

Yet again; not focusing on this specific player - just the big picture of why CMC isn’t an injury discount this year. 

One could describe all injuries as flukey. But we have statistical evidence that shows X# of carries over Y amount of time =  

It’s situational. I actually do injury discount McCaffrey a little this year but he’s still my #1 because Cook has his own history, Kamara lost Brees and Henry doesn’t catch much. Last year I had him #1 without a second thought, this year I spent legit time evaluating the alternatives and couldn’t come up with anyone I trust more. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I think there's always recency bias involved. Remember when "Fragile" Fred Taylor got the injury tag all the time- and he was injured aplenty during his first few years - until he became pretty durable. But I think many still gave him an injury discount all through his career.

I like that those stuck with the tag will usually go later than their talent level. "Safer" picks get taken and there is a discount that can roll through the draft for these "injury prone" types. They don't all have to stay healthy to provide overall roster value.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Don't disagree with your general point, and the best explanation I can come up with is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, but Barkley is absolutely seeing an injury discount, and if we keep getting bad news from camp he'll drop even further

 

[BoltBacker]

Look at Mixon going early to mid 2nd. Here’s a dude with a foot injury that knocked him out for a long stretch last year, runs behind a pretty bad OL & by virtue of perceived opportunity is still going top 17 overall. And all I hear from writers is sunshine & butterflies. No one mentions how fickle foot injuries can be, or that his OL is not what could be described as “good” for a running back. 

I think sometimes people are trying to bolster their own narrative about a situation, like the CIN offense in general. For instance people seem very bullish about the fact Burrow threw for more 400 pass attempts in nine and a half games. Maybe it's just because I still don't believe in that OL until I see it, but I'm not willing to pencil in Burrow for 720+ pass attempts in 2021. Also not a huge fan of Brandon Allen or their defense so it wouldn't be a shock to me if they are picking top-5 again next season unless the coaching staff plans on using Burrow differently than they did last season. Stafford survived doing that behind a bad OL(maybe not CIN bad) for almost 17 games one year but I'm not seeing much other evidence of a QB surviving a situation like that all year long. 

I realize this topic was covered in another thread but this is why I think full team projections are so important. If someone assumes that CIN offense is going to be average or better this year after CIN was bottom 3 in offense last season just because Burrows is coming back and Chase looked really good against college players that could explain why they still think Mixon is a 2nd rounder. But if I disagree with that team offense premise then I kind of disregard what their projections are for Mixon. At least in that example the person doing the projections put the work in to show WHY they think Mixon is worth a 2nd rounder. I respect that even if I disagree with it. When people think CIN and their offense will likely stink again, but Mixon is worth a 2nd rounder that stinks of "rankings" to me. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Food for thought, but are you sure Zeke at 7 isn't the discounted price?
 

he went 3rd last year, so yeah- 4 spots ain’t much of a discount. 

If I’m taking a RB top 7 overall, I want a feature back who’s gonna have 20-25 touches a game.

And McCarthy already flat out said that’s not the plan for Zeke 

So maybe he’s going 7th on name value and past production. And as much as I hate that it’s true, no one gets to apply 2019 stats to Zeke if they take him at 7.

 But I completely understand the lure. - you’re sitting at 7 or 8 & there’s Zeke all sexy with his past numbers. Thoughts creep into managers heads like, “if I get 80% of 2019 it’s worth it!” 

But ya might not. Ya might get less than you’d get from Chubb or Gibson in the 2nd. 

For a legitimate down season discount I’d put Zeke at about 2.05. Obviously the greater FF world disagrees with me, but different strokes & all that. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I do think EE was suffering from long term effects of Covid last year. Most players that got Covid didn't exactly blow it up after returning. One player that did do well was Gaskin, just off the top of my head and I am sure there were others. But the list of players seems to be much longer for the "doing not so great after Covid" crowd. 

I'll add to the mix that podcasts wildly affect ADP. Most of these podcast follow the same narrative and push the same story line all summer long as there really isn't much else to talk about. Mixon is a great example of that as displayed in this chat. Najee Harris and J Taylor are 2 more that have inflated ADP due to their summer long buzz. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

At least in that example the person doing the projections put the work in to show WHY they think Mixon is worth a 2nd rounder. I respect that even if I disagree with it. 
 

I think it’s about volume. And as with Zeke above where I wouldn’t touch him at that price because so many signs point to significantly lower volume this year, Mixon in the second is attractive because they might just run him into the ground 350 times with 60 receptions this year. 

Will that happen? Coming off of what had to be a somewhat significant foot injury, I’m not sure. 

But if I had to bet on one of the 2, I’d be more likely to gamble on Mixon in the 2ns after locking up Kelce or a top 4 WR at 7-8.

 

[tangfoot]

If I’m taking a RB top 7 overall, I want a feature back who’s gonna have 20-25 touches a game

Mike Clay projects Zeke as the RB4 in touches, a hair over 20 per game. The only ones ahead of him are CMC, Henry and Saquon, all just over 21 per game

 

[massraider]

My theory:

If a guy's injury screwed you over, you are more likely to give an injury tax. If he's one of those in and out frustrating questionable types, he might have one owner per league who hates him forever.  

Some guy missed 3 weeks, but it was early in the season, and played well in playoffs, I'm sure owners are more charitable. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Mike Clay projects Zeke as the RB4 in touches, a hair over 20 per game. The only ones ahead of him are CMC, Henry and Saquon, all just over 21 per game

Mike Clay apparently isn’t listening to McCarthy who very clearly said he wants to limit Zeke’s touches. That he’s a back that does less with more. Pointed to past workloads, and said he wanted to keep him fresh for a playoff push. 

So either Mike Clay is right & McCarty is lying or Mike Clay really hopes he’s right and McCarthy is telling the truth.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My theory:

If a guy's injury screwed you over, you are more likely to give an injury tax. If he's one of those in and out frustrating questionable types, he might have one owner per league who hates him forever.  

Some guy missed 3 weeks, but it was early in the season, and played well in playoffs, I'm sure owners are more charitable. 

I legit don’t hate EE forever. My bitterness towards players only goes so far & I like winning at FF, so yeah. Players I’ve had who’ve been hurt aren’t necessarily on my DND list.

In Elliott’s case, it was having watched him very closely all last year. Pollard was better. Pollard passed the eye test as a powerful runner who was also a fluid receiver. He broke tackles and busted break-away runs with quickness.

Elliott was none of those things, even when Dak had 2 working legs. He ran tentative, dropped passes, lacked concentration, missed gaps, looked slow and went down on 1st contact. He was simply not good.

I concede that I may be missing a great value witn Zeke this year as a mid-to-late 1st rounder. I can live with that. for one, I’m a niners fan and it makes me barf in my mouth a little to see Cowboys on my roster and () having to root for them.  

But the main reason is that I think he’s either past his prime due to early heavy usage, or he was slow to recover from COVID. Fatigue is one of the signs, as is mental fog.

And the 3rd strike for me, as mentioned, is the interview I watched with McCarthy. He sounded sincere. Like he’s really figured out the best plan for Elliott. And that plan is less of Elliott until a playoff push, or the playoffs. 

That might bode well if your team is strong enough to get you to week 13 or 14 when EE finally gets 20+ touches,, but with my 1st round selection I’d like earlier returns.

Perhaps one day we’ll all look back on this topic when EE finishes 4th in carries and we’ll laugh and laugh at how wrong I was. But until then, imma avoid EE this year. If I’m drafting 9th I hope he goes 8th.

 

[tangfoot]

Mike Clay apparently isn’t listening to McCarthy who very clearly said he wants to limit Zeke’s touches. That he’s a back that does less with more. Pointed to past workloads, and said he wanted to keep him fresh for a playoff push. 

So either Mike Clay is right & McCarty is lying or Mike Clay really hopes he’s right and McCarthy is telling the truth.  

You missed my point entirely. Only 4 players projected for 20+ touches. Good luck getting CMC or Henry at 1.07. Saquon may hit that mark, but he’s only going to be in 12-14 games. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You missed my point entirely. Only 4 players projected for 20+ touches. Good luck getting CMC or Henry at 1.07. Saquon may hit that mark, but he’s only going to be in 12-14 games. 

I get your point. 

I just don’t believe in that projection. So maybe there’s only 3 players projected to 20+ touches & EE ain’t one of em.  

Nobody knows but his coach. And his coach is saying different. 

 

[Dez]

Barkley was #2 overall pick last year now going in the 2nd round I would say that is an "injury discount"

 

[steelerfan1]

I haven’t quite completed them yet. Still very on the fence about some players. 

I’m sure I have more WRs in my 1st round than most. I’d just rather have Adams, Diggs, Tyreek, Hopkins, Ridley, & AJB than one of the “upside but red flag” RBs, especially knowing I can snag a Chubb or Mixon or (late 2nd) Gibson on the way back. 

We don’t trade draft picks in this league - it’s IDP 29 round live draft & takes ~7 hours, so we voted out draft trades years ago because drafts were stretching into 10-12 hour marathons & we all have lives to live. Some of the wives were getting pissed. lol.

But we do have KDS-style, so if you pull the 4th pick, you could take 12, if no one else has. 

I’m leaning towards that more and more if it becomes an option for me. Won’t know until just before we draft.

I probably as of this moment have it (PPR)

Cook, CMC, Kamara, Henry, Adams, AJones, Diggs, Hill, Kelce, Ridley, Hopkins, AJB. 

If it looks like Wentz will be back week 2 I probably bump Taylor up to 12.

I hear what you’re saying - and if I get the 1.01, I’ll probably be a sheep and take CMC or Cook (I like Cook just a stitch more due to less change in his situation). This time of year I throw a lot of stuff at the wall and see what sticks. 

Contrary to possible perception, I don’t “KNOW” anything. I just think of a lot of things. Often I can be convinced I’m wrong. Sometimes I can’t shake a feeling. 

Not disagreeing with you, but if you look at the WR you have in your first round….Adams, Hill, Diggs, AJB and Ridley to some extent have their own injury history. 

I have the 2nd pick in my upcoming draft in a league with a unique scoring system that values all positions pretty closely and I’ve been going back and forth between A few players with Cook being one of them, but since he burned me a couple years ago in a championship game, even though my brain tells me he is the right choice, I am still hesitant to lock him in because of that past experience.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not disagreeing with you, but if you look at the WR you have in your first round….Adams, Hill, Diggs, AJB and Ridley to some extent have their own injury history. 

I have the 2nd pick in my upcoming draft in a league with a unique scoring system that values all positions pretty closely and I’ve been going back and forth between A few players with Cook being one of them, but since he burned me a couple years ago in a championship game, even though my brain tells me he is the right choice, I am still hesitant to lock him in because of that past experience.

Every player has an injury history. And Adams is what, 29?

I had him the year he hurt his toe. I don’t hold it against him. ARod likely won’t throw 48 again, but he should throw 35-40, and Adams stands to catch a good portion of them. Diggs is a PPR god, and Tyreek has never disappointed me, even the year I lost him for a couple games due to the rare collar bone dislocation/break whatever. 

And I get it totally about being burned. I’ve told the story before here about losing in the playoffs, needing 2 points in PPR from Keenan Allen, lock of all locks.  

Came down on his hip trying to catch a TD (after being overthrown or dropping 3 passes on that drive) and that was it. Goose egg. Doneso. 

I talked a lot of mess about him being on my DND list because of it, but truth is I woulda drafted him the next year if he fell to me. I’m a points slut. I have no shame. :(  

 

[steelerfan1]

Every player has an injury history. And Adams is what, 29?

I had him the year he hurt his toe. I don’t hold it against him. ARod likely won’t throw 48 again, but he should throw 35-40, and Adams stands to catch a good portion of them. Diggs is a PPR god, and Tyreek has never disappointed me, even the year I lost him for a couple games due to the rare collar bone dislocation/break whatever. 

And I get it totally about being burned. I’ve told the story before here about losing in the playoffs, needing 2 points in PPR from Keenan Allen, lock of all locks.  

Came down on his hip trying to catch a TD (after being overthrown or dropping 3 passes on that drive) and that was it. Goose egg. Doneso. 

I talked a lot of mess about him being on my DND list because of it, but truth is I woulda drafted him the next year if he fell to me. I’m a points slut. I have no shame. :(  

It’s true, you have freaks of nature smashing into each other all year long. Everyone is at risk. For me though, it’s just those guys who every year you seem to watch take a hit and get up slowly and you start sweating. Cook is 1 of those for me. Having said that, I will probably still take him, as someone else mentioned, Fred Taylor, Frank Gore, etc… They were injury prone until they weren’t. I will probably also reach a little for Alexander , who by the way never missed a college game, but has been dinged up in the NFL…LOL…It’s all a crap shoot.

 

[acarey50]

If I’m taking a RB top 7 overall, I want a feature back who’s gonna have 20-25 touches a game.

Mike Clay projects Zeke as the RB4 in touches, a hair over 20 per game. The only ones ahead of him are CMC, Henry and Saquon, all just over 21 per game

I think that may be part of the crux of where your views need to be adjusted - this isn't the 1990s anymore where a feature back got 25 touches a game. Over the last 3 years, there were 7 RBs in 2020 (Elliott just missed with 19.8 touches), 10 in 2019 and 6 in 2018 that hit your metric of 20 touches a game (based on carries plus receptions) based on games played - and last years count includes McCaffrey with only 3 games played. Speaking of which, McCaffrey is the only player on the list for all 3 years, then you have Elliott who just missed last year being there twice along with Cook, Barkley, Henry and Mixon (who just missed in 2019 with 19.7).

All that said, I don't think it is realistic to project 7 backs to get 20+ touches, and if you did, it would seem foolish to not include Elliott amongst those backs. And, depending on your league structure, I think it is very reasonable after the first 3-4 picks to be considering Adams, Hill and Diggs in the first as safer plays with as much upside as many of those RBs.

You've mentioned Mixon - he's one that's tough to decide on - this shows that he has gotten the touches the last several years, and with Bernard gone there is the possibility he is more involved in the passing game, but (and I have not examined the splits), he does get Burrows back, they drafted Chase, two things that should open up the passing game and perhaps flip the game script away from running Mixon as much - or, it conversely draws a ton of attention away from stacking the line, meaning Mixon can do more with less, kind of like what Dallas can theoretically do with Elliott having Dak and all those receiving weapons back.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think that may be part of the crux of where your views need to be adjusted - this isn't the 1990s anymore where a feature back got 25 touches a game. Over the last 3 years, there were 7 RBs in 2020 (Elliott just missed with 19.8 touches), 10 in 2019 and 6 in 2018 that hit your metric of 20 touches a game (based on carries plus receptions) based on games played - and last years count includes McCaffrey with only 3 games played. Speaking of which, McCaffrey is the only player on the list for all 3 years, then you have Elliott who just missed last year being there twice along with Cook, Barkley, Henry and Mixon (who just missed in 2019 with 19.7).

All that said, I don't think it is realistic to project 7 backs to get 20+ touches, and if you did, it would seem foolish to not include Elliott amongst those backs. And, depending on your league structure, I think it is very reasonable after the first 3-4 picks to be considering Adams, Hill and Diggs in the first as safer plays with as much upside as many of those RBs.

You've mentioned Mixon - he's one that's tough to decide on - this shows that he has gotten the touches the last several years, and with Bernard gone there is the possibility he is more involved in the passing game, but (and I have not examined the splits), he does get Burrows back, they drafted Chase, two things that should open up the passing game and perhaps flip the game script away from running Mixon as much - or, it conversely draws a ton of attention away from stacking the line, meaning Mixon can do more with less, kind of like what Dallas can theoretically do with Elliott having Dak and all those receiving weapons back.

I think the crux is more that writers in July and august make projections for players that aren’t based in reality. And those opinions get propagated around the Internet’s until they become accepted as fact, even though they aren’t facts. They’re speculation.

And I agree, it’s unlikely any RB is going to get 25 touches a game. But I want the capability. 15-18 carries, 5-7 receptions. That’s CMC’s upside, right? 

20 touches seems realistic for Cook, too, if healthy. That’s why they’re going 1-2.

I don’t think Elliott comes close to that workload based on McCarthy’s comments. And the possibility that he just isn’t as good as he used to be. 

Anyway, this topic really wasn’t supposed to be about any specific player. I’m sure people drafting Elliott will get plenty of points out of him.

I won’t be one of them. The bottom line for me is that there are too many players I like more where he’s being drafted. I don’t see him as more valuable than Chubb, so ideally if I’m picking in that range I can take a WR I love and follow up with a RB I think will perform as well or better.

And Chubb is an interesting name for this topic - he’s a 2nd round pick because he got hurt last year and for the presence of Hunt.

Elliott is still a 1st round pick despite injury last year & the presence of Pollard.

Yet Chubb was better than Elliott last year.  Seems off to me, but imma take advantage of it where I can. 

 

[SoBeDad]

If Barkley is available early, I'd like to draft him with minimal discount, if I know who his backup is. Then, I'd have to reach for that guy (Booker?) later, so as to have a week 1 starter, and handcuff later. Will it be Booker?