But right now we're in this cycle where everyone goes on Facebook and complains about how they can't afford anything, and then they turn around and buy a jetski and book a ski trip and stop for a $11 sausage biscuit + coffee every morning.
Agree with your post overall except that I disagree that “everyone” is reacting the same way. Some consumers have changed and are changing their habits in response to higher prices.
Whether there’s yet a critical mass of such habit-changing consumers to effect change is a different matter. Just how inelastic is demand for fast food? Starbucks? Casual dining? Fine dining? Maybe we’ll see sooner or later.
Who are these people?
I'm sure they are out there, but it's empirical, right? These are public companies. Restaurants sales and profits are up. Travel spending in every category is up (by a lot!!). Apple sales are up. Facebook advertising spend is up (and people sure as heck aren't advertising for essentials on Facebook). Sales of random garbage on Amazon are up. Netflix subs are up (even as price continues to rise). Concert sales are up. Almost every company is selling more stuff every quarter, at higher prices than last quarter. And I'm talking about non-essentials here.
Anecdotally, it more than jives here.
A ticket at my local ski resort was $80 five years ago and you could park 20 yards from the lodge and ski onto every lift all day without waiting in a single line. Now a lift ticket is $260 and you have to park 3 miles away and take a shuttle in because all of the parking lots are full, and some of the lift lines are literally a quarter mile long at times. The price has gone up 4x and the visitorship has gone up 20x.
The Netflix CEO bought Powder Mountain and doubled the ticket prices essentially overnight ($129 to $250) and they haven't lost out on one single solitary visitor for it. Numbers just keep going up, tickets are actually sold out there today.
Last summer the line for people to put their boats in the lake was out of the marina parking lot and then another mile down the road. A few years ago it was never more than 2 cars deep. Apparently everyone bought a boat recently.
Restaurant waits here for some bland middle of the road place like Olive Garden are 90-120 minutes on the weekend and 45-60 minutes on Wednesday night. It used to be 30 minutes on the weekend and 0 minutes on Wednesday.
Our local mall looks like it's 1990 again. It looked like a scene out of a post-apocalyptic zombie movie 10 years ago.
If some people are spending less, there are two people on the other side spending more for every one of them. It's nuts out there right now. Places just can't charge enough to keep the crowds away. Has anyone bowled lately? Holy hell when did an hour of bowling for a family of 4 where you can't even finish two games hit triple digits? And why are all the lanes full at those prices?