Maybe the wonderful world of fake news will infest fantasy football too
If he gets the 6 game suspension, where does his ADP fall to?
I have been thinking about the Denver RB situation. They have a great schedule this year. Problem is one could see it go through any of those three guys. I think Charles is done imo. But who knowsAccording to Fantasy Pros ADP I would think that Jamaal Charles will sky rocket up. He's sitting at RB45 and 126 Overall in PPR.
Booker and CJA are good back ups but Charles is/ can be a true stud. The team needs something that doesn't rely on the QB for big plays. That defense is so good that they can wait for Charles to bust a big run. Yes injuries are a concern but he could vault up 20 positional spots and still be outside the top 24 RBs.
It's not really a stretch to think he's going to average 5 ypc. Give him 200 carries in a time share and he's at 1000 yards on the ground. Say 35 catches at 8.6 (career average) and he's a 1300 total yards. I'd say that's still a decent return if he vaults up to RB25. Even if he just starts out on pace for something like this but you're worried about his injuries, trade him. One Sports Center highlight with the name recognition that he has should net a decent return.
My opinion of Booker coming out last year was that he's going to be that back that fills in for a bit and looks good so everyone goes "Why don't they plan him more?!??" Then they do and he's kind of meh. To be fair to him I didn't watch any of his snaps last year though.I have been thinking about the Denver RB situation. They have a great schedule this year. Problem is one could see it go through any of those three guys. I think Charles is done imo. But who knows
If I had to bet o would bet on Booker even though he didn't do much last year. Just a hunch and he's a cheap lotto ticket. Preseason may help us see the answerMy opinion of Booker coming out last year was that he's going to be that back that fills in for a bit and looks good so everyone goes "Why don't they plan him more?!??" Then they do and he's kind of meh. To be fair to him I didn't watch any of his snaps last year though.
CJA's long run of each season is 27, 48 and 28 yards (not counting his rookie year which was pretty much a red shirt year) and ran a 4.60 at the combine. He doesn't seem like a big play guy and with the QB situation in Denver, I think that is what they need from their RBs. Which is why I think Charles "wins" the lead job and gets 200 carries.
He doesn't seem like a big play guy and with the QB situation in Denver, I think that is what they need from their RBs. Which is why I think Charles "wins" the lead job and gets 200 carries.
What are you even talking about? I'm projecting Charles (a proven veteran back) to get 200 carries in a time share. That's a team being safe and running the ball. You talk about controlling the ball and moving the chains with long sustained drives (if they are keeping the others teams D on the field) but that's the goal of almost every single team in the league. I'm pretty sure if you asked any coach what the ideal outcome of a drive is that they'd say "a long drive that ended in a score". It's not just some easy casual thing to do. Especially, with the QBs that Denver has.Bronco Billy said:I could not disagree more with this statement, and not just about the DEN situation but about football in general. If a team has a dominant D, they should be about controlling the clock, moving the chains, and not making mistakes. A team like DEN doesn't need big plays, they just need to keep the other team's D on the field for a long time.
What are you even talking about? I'm projecting Charles (a proven veteran back) to get 200 carries in a time share. That's a team being safe and running the ball. You talk about controlling the ball and moving the chains with long sustained drives (if they are keeping the others teams D on the field) but that's the goal of almost every single team in the league. I'm pretty sure if you asked any coach what the ideal outcome of a drive is that they'd say "a long drive that ended in a score". It's not just some easy casual thing to do. Especially, with the QBs that Denver has.
The Broncos need a back who can maximize yards when there is the odd blown coverage. CJA is likely only to get maybe 25 yards on those big plays but Charles has the potential to get a lot more. This is important because in all but 1 of their 7 losses last year they scored less than 21 points. Of their wins, 8 of 9 (or 7 of 8 if you throw out the Week 17 nothing game against Oakland) they scored 21 or more.
The best way to be conservative but to still score is with a dynamic RB. If you think CJA is good enough for that role and Charles is done, fine. That's a different conversation. Anderson only averaged 4.0 ypc in 2 of his 7 games last year. He also averaged below 3.0 ypc in two of 7 games last year. If Denver is going to have a RB average 3.97 ypc (or Booker at 3.5 ypc) why not have a guy who can at least break a big run when they get the chance. I would bet that a quarter of Denvers offensive TDs last year came from big plays (over 20 yards).
The whole point is that this offense isn't going to have enough success sustaining and converting drives into points. They might have longer drives with Anderson in the backfield but how many result in points?
In the NFL it isn't just that simple to consistently move the chains, control the ball and play mistake free. Denver specifically was 28th in first downs per game last year. If you use that same website you can also see that they were 20th in scoring but tied for 14th in total plays. And 1.9 TDs per game has them tied for 23rd.What am I talking about? I thought I was pretty clear. You said DEN required big plays out of their RBs. I disagreed and stated that they could be a tougher out if they get consistent chain-moving ball control mistake free play that keeps the opponents D on the field longer.
Is that clear enough?
Your position on Charles was always clear. What you're missing is that it could happen and his current price of 126 overall in PPR ADP he could be a huge value. Even if he were to move up 20 positional spots to RB25 he'd be in the Doug Martin, Bilal Powell, AP, Mike Gillislee range.I also posted that I felt Charles has pretty much completed his career given his recent injuries, his age, and that he isn't a big back; whereas you feel he can manage at least 200 carries plus receptions. If my position is correct, DEN will have to look elsewhere for the predominance of its rushing yards, which is what I am expecting. I see Charles as a possible part time piece at best, whereas you clearly see him as the lead back.
Does that help to clarify my opinion?
In the NFL it isn't just that simple to consistently move the chains, control the ball and play mistake free. Denver specifically was 28th in first downs per game last year. If you use that same website you can also see that they were 20th in scoring but tied for 14th in total plays. And 1.9 TDs per game has them tied for 23rd.
In theory, yes it would be best to do what you're talking about but it is not that easy to actually execute on Sundays. I actually agree with you that they need to do these things (as I'm sure everyone would since it's a good general concept) and I'm sure everyone could agree that putting the ball more in the hands of Siemian and Lynch probably might be the best way to accomplish these goals. Since the Broncos are 28th in 1st downs but 14th in plays, they shouldn't be much more inefficient with a big play guy but they would end up with more potential of scoring on those big plays when they do happen.
I'm just playing out what I think to be a possible scenario for Charles to become the lead back.
My last post I was kind of a jerk and I apologize.
Your position on Charles was always clear. What you're missing is that it could happen and his current price of 126 overall in PPR ADP he could be a huge value. Even if he were to move up 20 positional spots to RB25 he'd be in the Doug Martin, Bilal Powell, AP, Mike Gillislee range.
The whole point of the thread is Risers and Fallers. Assuming these guys don't get injured, I don't think there will be many negative reports out of Broncos camp about Charles because every preseason coaches and media almost exclusively just talk guys up. So to hear good things about Charles during training camp/preseason and then look at Martin, Bilal Powell, AP and Gillislee who all have their only issues then why not Charles. Again, this would be if rose up 20 spots.
If you're still not convinced Charles will be a riser then I guess we will just have to agree to disagree.
Just in case it hasn't been said and somebody believes this, this web site is a prank news site.
So Charles is your sleeper (super sleeper if you really buy the 200 carries), but for him to actually be a riser other people have to believe he's back. He's only got 83 carries in the past 2 years, he got like a 1-year $900k contract, and he's the dreaded age of 30. I can't see many people jumping on this bandwagon unless CJA gets hurt in the preseason.Borden said:My opinion of Booker coming out last year was that he's going to be that back that fills in for a bit and looks good so everyone goes "Why don't they plan him more?!??" Then they do and he's kind of meh. To be fair to him I didn't watch any of his snaps last year though.
CJA's long run of each season is 27, 48 and 28 yards (not counting his rookie year which was pretty much a red shirt year) and ran a 4.60 at the combine. He doesn't seem like a big play guy and with the QB situation in Denver, I think that is what they need from their RBs. Which is why I think Charles "wins" the lead job and gets 200 carries.
Please give me proof that Rivers isn't in serious legal trouble. Until I get that, I am going to have to assume Rivers is involved in a transexual prostitution ring.Just in case it hasn't been said and somebody believes this, this web site is a prank news site.
I think the issue is no NFL team was confident in his abilities and so a contract with no guaranteed money was all he could get.So Charles is your sleeper (super sleeper if you really buy the 200 carries), but for him to actually be a riser other people have to believe he's back. He's only got 83 carries in the past 2 years, he got like a 1-year $900k contract, and he's the dreaded age of 30. I can't see many people jumping on this bandwagon unless CJA gets hurt in the preseason.
Personally, I'm pretty skeptical. If he was that confident in his abilities, wouldn't he have held out for more money or a better situation?
Yeah, that doesn't fill me with confidence about his FF prospects. I think Elway was just throwing a cheap dart. I'll be really surprised if other people start to buy in and he becomes a riser (without an unforeseeable injury to an incumbent).I think the issue is no NFL team was confident in his abilities and so a contract with no guaranteed money was all he could get.
My guess is he gets cut.Yeah, that doesn't fill me with confidence about his FF prospects. I think Elway was just throwing a cheap dart. I'll be really surprised if other people start to buy in and he becomes a riser (without an unforeseeable injury to an incumbent).
His contract your right is 900k base. Then 100k work out bonus and a 480k roster bonus. Then he has a bunch of performance bonuses starting at 500 scrimmage yards up to 1400 + team playoffs. I'm not saying this in regards to our discussion, sometimes I just find these things interesting.So Charles is your sleeper (super sleeper if you really buy the 200 carries), but for him to actually be a riser other people have to believe he's back. He's only got 83 carries in the past 2 years, he got like a 1-year $900k contract, and he's the dreaded age of 30. I can't see many people jumping on this bandwagon unless CJA gets hurt in the preseason.
Personally, I'm pretty skeptical. If he was that confident in his abilities, wouldn't he have held out for more money or a better situation?
These are good points. And I agree that casual people are the ones mostly impacting ADP, but remember that the common narrative among casual fans is that Charles is toast. People have been burned by him two years in a row and if they didn't own him they watched him sitting atop the waiver wire all year long. Most casual fans just draft blindly by their cheatsheets based on need.His contract your right is 900k base. Then 100k work out bonus and a 480k roster bonus. Then he has a bunch of performance bonuses starting at 500 scrimmage yards up to 1400 + team playoffs. I'm not saying this in regards to our discussion, sometimes I just find these things interesting.
There's a few reasons why I think he will rise. Forget completely about my wishful thinking projections and think about it like this. A big name stud goes to a run heavy team. Now add in that you can already find a few articles on Charles being the best back when healthy.
The other thing that us turbo dorks forget is the casual people out weigh us and will have a big impact on ADP. When they are looking at names to pick in Charles ADP range 116 to 126 (Charles is 126) it's Mike Wallace, Adam Theilen, Jordan Mathews, Duke Johnson, Jack Doyle, Matt Stafford, Eric Ebron, Terrence West, Kenny Britt, Jonathan Stewart. I don't think any of those names carry the weight that Charles does. I'm sure some fantasy "expert" will talk up Charles as a sleeper too.
And if he breaks a long run against some practice squad defense (since CJ should be on first team O) he will definitely rise.
Because he's really Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers, right?Just in case it hasn't been said and somebody believes this, this web site is a prank news site.
I guess about the late 3rd round/early 4th round. He’s a huge difference maker and people won’t let him slip very farIf he gets the 6 game suspension, where does his ADP fall to?
I think I would earlier than that. Maybe late 2nd/early 3rd.I guess about the late 3rd round/early 4th round. He’s a huge difference maker and people won’t let him slip very far
Williams will have his Josh Gordon moment and nobody will know his name two years from now.Williams will eventually beat out Hyde this year, just a matter of when.
200 carries??? Coming off all his surgeries. I don't think it will happen. Maybe 150 carries at best and I think it will be closer to 100.According to Fantasy Pros ADP I would think that Jamaal Charles will sky rocket up. He's sitting at RB45 and 126 Overall in PPR.
Booker and CJA are good back ups but Charles is/ can be a true stud. The team needs something that doesn't rely on the QB for big plays. That defense is so good that they can wait for Charles to bust a big run. Yes injuries are a concern but he could vault up 20 positional spots and still be outside the top 24 RBs.
It's not really a stretch to think he's going to average 5 ypc. Give him 200 carries in a time share and he's at 1000 yards on the ground. Say 35 catches at 8.6 (career average) and he's a 1300 total yards. I'd say that's still a decent return if he vaults up to RB25. Even if he just starts out on pace for something like this but you're worried about his injuries, trade him. One Sports Center highlight with the name recognition that he has should net a decent return.
No way he gets out of the 2nd round. He's far more important to me in weeks 14-16 than 1-6 anyway, I'm not afraid of 6 weeks at all, it's not like you are taking his donuts at the position. Draft McFadden and Morris a bit earlier if you must, the purpose of your 4th RB is to cover risk of missing time anyway and it's not like you're starting Matt Forte if Elliott is healthy so McFadden is a zero opportunity cost in that slot.I guess about the late 3rd round/early 4th round. He’s a huge difference maker and people won’t let him slip very far
Is Zeke this mysterious 6 game suspension player that everyone is talking about?No way he gets out of the 2nd round. He's far more important to me in weeks 14-16 than 1-6 anyway, I'm not afraid of 6 weeks at all, it's not like you are taking his donuts at the position. Draft McFadden and Morris a bit earlier if you must, the purpose of your 4th RB is to cover risk of missing time anyway and it's not like you're starting Matt Forte if Elliott is healthy so McFadden is a zero opportunity cost in that slot.
Did I miss something? Did hit punch his girlfriend in an elevator or something?Is Zeke this mysterious 6 game suspension player that everyone is talking about?
It's related to the domestic violence investigation from last summerDid I miss something? Did hit punch his girlfriend in an elevator or something?
Is it a mystery? Schefter straight up said a 6 game suspension is very possible for ZekeIs Zeke this mysterious 6 game suspension player that everyone is talking about?
Oh yea, thought it was related to him lifting up that girls shirt or something stupid.It's related to the domestic violence investigation from last summer
It's from an incident last year. @Saboo posted it on the last page.Did I miss something? Did hit punch his girlfriend in an elevator or something?
I missed Saboo's post. And thought everyone was just talking about the joke post/link.Is it a mystery? Schefter straight up said a 6 game suspension is very possible for Zeke
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/757135-risers-and-fallers2017/?do=findComment&comment=20243658Is Zeke this mysterious 6 game suspension player that everyone is talking about?
On second thought your probably right. I could see him going in the later part of the second round or early 3rd.Hankmoody said:No way he gets out of the 2nd round. He's far more important to me in weeks 14-16 than 1-6 anyway, I'm not afraid of 6 weeks at all, it's not like you are taking his donuts at the position. Draft McFadden and Morris a bit earlier if you must, the purpose of your 4th RB is to cover risk of missing time anyway and it's not like you're starting Matt Forte if Elliott is healthy so McFadden is a zero opportunity cost in that slot.
It depends how many teams make the playoffs. To take a guy in the 2nd round who you can't play in 7 games is a risky move. That is more than half of the regular season. Zeke isn't helpful in weeks 14-16 if a team doesn't make the playoffs. Plus roster size is important. The smaller the roster, the more value Zeke loses. Holding on to Zeke for 7 weeks also means you could be missing on important breakout players, QBs you need to hold for streaming, handcuffs, etc.Hankmoody said:No way he gets out of the 2nd round. He's far more important to me in weeks 14-16 than 1-6 anyway, I'm not afraid of 6 weeks at all, it's not like you are taking his donuts at the position. Draft McFadden and Morris a bit earlier if you must, the purpose of your 4th RB is to cover risk of missing time anyway and it's not like you're starting Matt Forte if Elliott is healthy so McFadden is a zero opportunity cost in that slot.
I am still very high on Booker and I have read a couple good things things about him this offseason, although for the most part it has been very quiet in regards to him.If I had to bet o would bet on Booker even though he didn't do much last year. Just a hunch and he's a cheap lotto ticket. Preseason may help us see the answer
Somewhat of a side tangent on this investigation into Elliot. In a spoiler as a attempt to not clog up the thread.
The domestic abuse thing with beating up his girlfriend from last summer and the number Schefter floated out was 6 gamesWhat is this rumored incident?
Given the time I think they are sitting as well. I don't think he'd fall much... even if he's suspended for a game or two, or 4 (worst case IMO). Bell dropped to 1.10 for me last year because of his 4 game suspension and I was beyond surprised. I wouldn't see Zeke falling further than 1.06
Was there ever any proof? I thought this was all over with last summer. I thought the accuser was falsely claiming all this cause he broke up with her, i could be wrong on that. But I do think it says something the police and authorities never even charged himThe domestic abuse thing with beating up his girlfriend from last summer and the number Schefter floated out was 6 games
Something maybe but not a lot. Many incidents aren't charged if it isn't likely to get a conviction, yet they still happened. The burden on the league administratively is lower and the rules of evidence are lax.Was there ever any proof? I thought this was all over with last summer. I thought the accuser was falsely claiming all this cause he broke up with her, i could be wrong on that. But I do think it says something the police and authorities never even charged him
I don't know much about it, I just know that Schefter said in the eyes of the NFL, this incident is not resolved.Was there ever any proof? I thought this was all over with last summer. I thought the accuser was falsely claiming all this cause he broke up with her, i could be wrong on that. But I do think it says something the police and authorities never even charged him
Something maybe but not a lot. Many incidents aren't charged if it isn't likely to get a conviction, yet they still happened. The burden on the league administratively is lower and the rules of evidence are lax.
Might be nothing, but the lack of civilian prosecution doesn't make it so.
Something must have happened in the past few months to force the league to revisit itSomething maybe but not a lot. Many incidents aren't charged if it isn't likely to get a conviction, yet they still happened. The burden on the league administratively is lower and the rules of evidence are lax.
Might be nothing, but the lack of civilian prosecution doesn't make it so.