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Trip's Preseason Week 1 Rookie Risers and Fallers (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

Footballguy
Biggest Risers

1. Deuce Vaughn - say what you will, the little man produced and has a path to touches.

2. Richardson - I liked what I saw. He looks the part.

3. LaPorta/Musgrave - played 100% of starter snaps in preseason action

4. Bigsby - Looks like he belongs and appears to be 1B in an above average offense

5. Hyatt - Played with the starters and has speed to burn in a well constructed offense...yes please.



Biggest Fallers

1. Kendre Miller - Kamara looked like Kamara and Kendre leaves game with "knee sprain"

2. CJ Stroud - I was high on him but it looks like it's going to take some time to get things going in Houston

3. Bryce Young - See Stroud

4. Marvin Mims - concerning he's not seeing preseason snaps/targets

5. Zach Charbonnet - looked like a JAG to me (Walker appears to be one of the early SODs)
 
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Biggest Risers

1. Deuce Vaughn - say what you will, the little man produced and has a path to touches.

2. Richardson - I liked what I saw. He looks the part.

3. LaPorta/Musgrave - played 100% of starter snaps in preseason action

4. Bigsby - Looks like he belongs and appears to be 1B in an above average offense

5. Hyatt - Played with the starters and has speed to burn in a well constructed offense...yes please.



Biggest Fallers

1. Kendre Miller - Kamara looked like Kamara and Kendre leaves game with "knee sprain"

2. CJ Stroud - I was high on him but it looks like it's going to take some time to get things going in Houston

3. Bryce Young - See Stroud


4. Marvin Mims - concerning he's not seeing preseason snaps/targets

5. Zach Charbonnet - looked like a JAG to me (Walker appears to be one of the early SODs)
One was 4 for 6 the other 2 for 4 with an INT. I'm not moving anyone based on passing attempts I can count on my fingers.
 
One was 4 for 6 the other 2 for 4 with an INT. I'm not moving anyone based on passing attempts I can count on my fingers.

what are your long term expectations/forecasts for Young and Stroud?
Is this a re-draft, dynasty, or NFL thread so I can respond appropriately.

Regardless, anything that happened pre-season week1 in a handful of passes hasn't caused either one to rise of fall expect possibly a fraction in re-draft (but wouldn't make a top five list).
 
5. Zach Charbonnet - looked like a JAG to me (Walker appears to be one of the early SODs)
I’m convinced it’s a schtick at this point. At the very least it’s a bad gaslighting attempt.
I don’t think it is either of those things. It’s just simple confirmation bias. Almost everyone on this board is prone to it at one time or another. Some are just prone to it more often.
 
I’m convinced it’s a schtick at this point. At the very least it’s a bad gaslighting attempt.

Don't accuse other posters of this. Make your point and defend it. And keep it 100% on NFL players.
Respectfully, that would be easier if this person hadn’t already said this *exact comment* a dozen times or more across other topics.

Now they’re starting yet another topic to troll everyone by calling a player a “JAG” with no supporting commentary….again.

Overall it’s incredibly distracting to multiple topics & should be called out as such.
 
I’m convinced it’s a schtick at this point. At the very least it’s a bad gaslighting attempt.

Don't accuse other posters of this. Make your point and defend it. And keep it 100% on NFL players.
Respectfully, that would be easier if this person hadn’t already said this *exact comment* a dozen times or more across other topics.

Now they’re starting yet another topic to troll everyone by calling a player a “JAG” with no supporting commentary….again.

Overall it’s incredibly distracting to multiple topics & should be called out as such.
Why should it be called out? Just ignore it and move on.
 
I’m convinced it’s a schtick at this point. At the very least it’s a bad gaslighting attempt.

Don't accuse other posters of this. Make your point and defend it. And keep it 100% on NFL players.
Respectfully, that would be easier if this person hadn’t already said this *exact comment* a dozen times or more across other topics.

Now they’re starting yet another topic to troll everyone by calling a player a “JAG” with no supporting commentary….again.

Overall it’s incredibly distracting to multiple topics & should be called out as such.

Drop it and ignore.
 
Good thread. It’s always a bit dangerous to take too much out of pre-season, but sometimes signs do emerge.

I’d add Tank Dell to the risers - as mentioned, not making too much out of one game, but there is opportunity there with Nico Collins/Robert Woods/John Metchie as the primary competition.
 
adding Quentin Johnston to the faller list. he struggled mightily with contested catches and i didn't see any separation in the mid routes. he was going to be a project this year anyway, but worse than I expected in his first day out. Overreaction, I know. Palmer back on my radar. Even Doss had two grabs I thought looked much more polished.
 
Palmer back on my radar
Agreed about QJ, but Palmer had every opportunity to succeed last year, and seemingly failed time and again. He couldn’t get separation, couldn’t make contested catches, and seemingly lost track of where the sideline was several times. I drafted him late as a sixth wide receiver, and was elated when he got the chance to be a top 2 target for the team. I felt like he really blew his opportunities. I kind of felt like that’s why they drafted QJ.

I’m not sure any chargers, wide receiver behind Keenan Allen or Mike Williams is worth drafting in re-draft.
 
I’d add Tank Dell to the risers - as mentioned, not making too much out of one game, but there is opportunity there with Nico Collins/Robert Woods/John Metchie as the primary competition.

Great call here...he's clearly a round 2 rookie draft player now IMHO.
 
Biggest Fallers

4. Marvin Mims - concerning he's not seeing preseason snaps/targets
Not sure Marvin Mims should be a "faller" necessarily. Maybe an "incomplete."

He's been healthy and back at practice for the past couple weeks and has connected multiple times with Wilson in a Lockett-like manner.

The field in AZ was in horrible shape so that could have been a valid reason plus general caution coming off hamstring issues for not playing against the Cardinals.

Payton seems to have enough confidence he's healthy to list him as 1st team KR and PR on recent depth chart.

Injury to Tim Patrick gives Mims' clear shot at WR3/slot role, but Jeudy and Sutton both look solid so highly doubtful he'll crack starting WR lineup sans injury.

Likely IMO to see first action along with Javonte Williams in 2nd preseason game vs. 49ers.
 
Apparently Walker is one of the worst in the league in efficiency metrics and is exclusively a home run hitter, whereas Charbonnet is off the charts in receiving efficiency. Mix in some Walker injury history and there's more going on here they eye test ratings.

I'm going to add a very detailed critique of Charbonnet in this thread due to some of the "criticism" of my Charbonnet take. I have posted a lot of it in other threads, but will summarize it in here.
 
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Agreed about QJ, but Palmer had every opportunity to succeed last year
He's only entering his third NFL season and finished with and finished with 72-769-3 in his second season as the WR3 - I'm not sure the book is completely written yet. He also did that with Herbert struggling through injury for most of the season. Herbert went from QB2 in 2021 to QB15 in 2022. When he bounces back he'll help rise the tide of the WRs.
 
Agreed about QJ, but Palmer had every opportunity to succeed last year
He's only entering his third NFL season and finished with and finished with 72-769-3 in his second season and the WR3 - I'm not sure the book is completely written yet. He also did that with Herbert struggling through injury for most of the season. Herbert went from QB2 in 2021 to QB15 in 2022. When he bounces back he'll help rise the tide of the WRs.
That’s a good point. I didn't account for the possibility that Herbert throws may have been off.
 
Ty Chandler is worth watching in MN. He might steal time from Alex Mattison.
I really like him this year and will be looking to add him late across my leagues. I've never personally thought mattison has looked good and he hasn't proved he can handle a full season as a lead back yet so Chandler is a good hedge.
 
Ty Chandler is worth watching in MN. He might steal time from Alex Mattison.
I'm not so sure he "steals" work from Mattison but he should win backup job (Mattison role), which is likely a bigger role than in the past when Cook was there.
Mattison seems like a bit of a plodder. I agree that Ty will not steal anything, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised if this was more of a committee than people think.
 
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Ty Chandler is worth watching in MN. He might steal time from Alex Mattison.
I'm not so sure he "steals" work from Mattison but he should win backup job (Mattison role), which is likely a bigger role than in the past when Cook was there.
This is my thought as well. In general Minny isn't going to rely on the running game (Mattison) like they did with Cook. They are building a more pass-centric offense with the players they have. But I also think Mattison doesn't take on the full load and that the overall workload is split more than it was in the past. Chandler should benefit from that.
 
Don't agree with Bigsby as a riser. (Full disclosure: biased Etienne owner.) Granted I didn't watch that game, but his stats don't convince me of anything (yet). I read that Bigsby played very little relative to Etienne while the starters were in.
 
I read that Bigsby played very little relative to Etienne while the starters were in.
He had one nice run and looked pretty pedestrian otherwise - I really think people are looking to bury ETN for whatever reason, and those people will be in for a surprise when Bigsby isn't as involved as they think. Camp buzz has carried the day.
I still look at Etienne as top notch. Was he not considered a near shoe-in for the #1 dynasty pick of his draft class at some point pre-injury (edit: at least #1 among RB's. In my league that is essentially synonymous with #1 overall)? Then 1400 scrimmage yards as a de facto rookie? Not overly worried about Bigsby. If I had to put an over/under on Etienne's RB touch share, it would be 72%, and I'd be perfectly fine with that.
 
I read that Bigsby played very little relative to Etienne while the starters were in.
He had one nice run and looked pretty pedestrian otherwise - I really think people are looking to bury ETN for whatever reason, and those people will be in for a surprise when Bigsby isn't as involved as they think. Camp buzz has carried the day.
I still look at Etienne as top notch. Was he not considered a near shoe-in for the #1 dynasty pick of his draft class at some point pre-injury (edit: at least #1 among RB's. In my league that is essentially synonymous with #1 overall)? Then 1400 scrimmage yards as a de facto rookie? Not overly worried about Bigsby. If I had to put an over/under on Etienne's RB touch share, it would be 72%, and I'd be perfectly fine with that.
The issue with Etienne, is that he likely will be pulled at the GL and could also not be the 3rd down RB. Both of those happened in the preseason game. Etienne is super explosive, so he'll be fine, but he's probably gonna have a really tough path to being more than a high-end RB2.
 
I read that Bigsby played very little relative to Etienne while the starters were in.
He had one nice run and looked pretty pedestrian otherwise - I really think people are looking to bury ETN for whatever reason, and those people will be in for a surprise when Bigsby isn't as involved as they think. Camp buzz has carried the day.
I still look at Etienne as top notch. Was he not considered a near shoe-in for the #1 dynasty pick of his draft class at some point pre-injury (edit: at least #1 among RB's. In my league that is essentially synonymous with #1 overall)? Then 1400 scrimmage yards as a de facto rookie? Not overly worried about Bigsby. If I had to put an over/under on Etienne's RB touch share, it would be 72%, and I'd be perfectly fine with that.
The issue with Etienne, is that he likely will be pulled at the GL and could also not be the 3rd down RB. Both of those happened in the preseason game. Etienne is super explosive, so he'll be fine, but he's probably gonna have a really tough path to being more than a high-end RB2.
I still am in denial of the idea that anyone is going to take 3rd down role over him on a consistent basis. 80+ receptions over his junior and senior years, and I remember them talking him up being used out wide before his first healthy season (that was under Urban Meyer, though). He only ended up getting 35 receptions, but --though that isn't exactly a low number -- I feel like he has to be a darn good receiving back. We know he is great in space.

ETA: I also wouldn't be shocked if Bigsby does get a large amount of work, and/or win the passing down job. But I'm betting against it.
 
Are there any rookie RBs that fit the Dameon Pierce/James Robinson mold? Not highly drafted, no stud RB in front of them, potential to be an early season workhorse?

eta: someone you could draft in the middle or late
 
Are there any rookie RBs that fit the Dameon Pierce/James Robinson mold? Not highly drafted, no stud RB in front of them, potential to be an early season workhorse?

eta: someone you could draft in the middle or late
I don't really see anybody like that this year. The closest thing in my eyes would be Roschon Johnson. Or if Mixon ends up in worse trouble than we're expecting (jail, suspension), Chase Brown becomes the best candidate.
 
Some rookie observations to add:

Despite his decent numbers, I thought Stetson Bennett looked pretty awful. Had 3 balls that should have been picked off.

I agree a little with the Stroud take, in the sense that he was awful, though obviously he had a very small sample size, my concern was a lack of command, he seemed very unaccustomed to pressure which was a concern of mine, like all OSU prospects seem to face. Trey Lance had a similar problem Sunday, but unlike Stroud, luck was on his side, and a terrible pass that should have been picked off turned into a TD.

I know it was against the 2nd team, but I thought Aidan O'Connell looked very good, and may be just fine starting if/when Jimmy G goes down, at least for Adams/Jacobs drafters.

I thought Chris Evans looked a lot better than Chase Brown. Evans has always impressed whenever he has played, but for whatever reason it seems like the Bengals never really liked him. Maybe now with Perine gone they'll have no choice.

Wasn't the best start for DeWayne McBride, he looked pretty sluggish. I'm not a Ty Chandler fan, I think he's just fast, but he certainly looked better. I'm still of the belief that backfield will have a veteran added, whether it be someone like Hunt, or someone lesser like a Henderson.

Speaking of the Vikings, I thought Addison looked great, and I have no idea why they didn't challenge his clear sideline catch. I'd be shocked if KJ Osborn stayed ahead of him for long, and I'm starting to think Kirk Cousins might be in line for a career year.

I thought AT Perry looked great for New Orleans. I think he could be the top backup for them, and is a nice dynasty stash. I had him as a 3rd round prospect, and was shocked he fell to round 6, kinda like Khalil Herbert a couple years ago. If Michael Thomas can't stay on the field, I think Perry could the next man up pretty quick, as we know Smith is nothing special.

From the non-rookie side:

I thought Jake Ferguson sure looked a lot like Dalton Schultz. Like, there may not be a dropoff there, though with Cooks on board there likely is statistically.

Baker Mayfield looked a ton better than Kyle Trask. I've been pretty open to Trask potentially winning the job, but they looked very different. Mayfield looked more decisive than he has looked in a long time.
 
I read that Bigsby played very little relative to Etienne while the starters were in.
He had one nice run and looked pretty pedestrian otherwise - I really think people are looking to bury ETN for whatever reason, and those people will be in for a surprise when Bigsby isn't as involved as they think. Camp buzz has carried the day.
I still look at Etienne as top notch. Was he not considered a near shoe-in for the #1 dynasty pick of his draft class at some point pre-injury (edit: at least #1 among RB's. In my league that is essentially synonymous with #1 overall)? Then 1400 scrimmage yards as a de facto rookie? Not overly worried about Bigsby. If I had to put an over/under on Etienne's RB touch share, it would be 72%, and I'd be perfectly fine with that.
The issue with Etienne, is that he likely will be pulled at the GL and could also not be the 3rd down RB. Both of those happened in the preseason game. Etienne is super explosive, so he'll be fine, but he's probably gonna have a really tough path to being more than a high-end RB2.
I like ETN personally (late 3rd, after Rhamondre, torn between him and Gibbs), but would be remiss to not add in, I do think TLaw has underrated rushing chops and ran the ball in 5 times himself last season. Also IIRC Ridley was a solid target there for ATL. Red zone looks for this team will likely be spread out.
 
I read that Bigsby played very little relative to Etienne while the starters were in.
He had one nice run and looked pretty pedestrian otherwise - I really think people are looking to bury ETN for whatever reason, and those people will be in for a surprise when Bigsby isn't as involved as they think. Camp buzz has carried the day.
I still look at Etienne as top notch. Was he not considered a near shoe-in for the #1 dynasty pick of his draft class at some point pre-injury (edit: at least #1 among RB's. In my league that is essentially synonymous with #1 overall)? Then 1400 scrimmage yards as a de facto rookie? Not overly worried about Bigsby. If I had to put an over/under on Etienne's RB touch share, it would be 72%, and I'd be perfectly fine with that.
The issue with Etienne, is that he likely will be pulled at the GL and could also not be the 3rd down RB. Both of those happened in the preseason game. Etienne is super explosive, so he'll be fine, but he's probably gonna have a really tough path to being more than a high-end RB2.
I still am in denial of the idea that anyone is going to take 3rd down role over him on a consistent basis. 80+ receptions over his junior and senior years, and I remember them talking him up being used out wide before his first healthy season (that was under Urban Meyer, though). He only ended up getting 35 receptions, but --though that isn't exactly a low number -- I feel like he has to be a darn good receiving back. We know he is great in space.

ETA: I also wouldn't be shocked if Bigsby does get a large amount of work, and/or win the passing down job. But I'm betting against it.
The problem is Etienne is a bad route runner. I REALLY wish I could remember who it was, but somebody had a series of videos about how almost all of his college receiving production was manufactured, and that just isn't something Doug Pederson really does.

Etienne is great in the open field, no disagreement there, but I think 35 catches is closer to his ceiling than his floor, especially with Ridley on board, Etienne is likely no higher than 5th in the pecking order. Also, it wasn't Bigsby, but Hasty who got the 3rd down work, which was also the case in the playoff game against KC.

ETA: Not hating on Etienne at all, I have him in the RB13-16 range, I just think his ceiling is being grossly overstated, unless he massively improves 2 major parts of his game, until then he's more expensive Kenneth Walker.
 
I read that Bigsby played very little relative to Etienne while the starters were in.
He had one nice run and looked pretty pedestrian otherwise - I really think people are looking to bury ETN for whatever reason, and those people will be in for a surprise when Bigsby isn't as involved as they think. Camp buzz has carried the day.
I still look at Etienne as top notch. Was he not considered a near shoe-in for the #1 dynasty pick of his draft class at some point pre-injury (edit: at least #1 among RB's. In my league that is essentially synonymous with #1 overall)? Then 1400 scrimmage yards as a de facto rookie? Not overly worried about Bigsby. If I had to put an over/under on Etienne's RB touch share, it would be 72%, and I'd be perfectly fine with that.
The issue with Etienne, is that he likely will be pulled at the GL and could also not be the 3rd down RB. Both of those happened in the preseason game. Etienne is super explosive, so he'll be fine, but he's probably gonna have a really tough path to being more than a high-end RB2.
I still am in denial of the idea that anyone is going to take 3rd down role over him on a consistent basis. 80+ receptions over his junior and senior years, and I remember them talking him up being used out wide before his first healthy season (that was under Urban Meyer, though). He only ended up getting 35 receptions, but --though that isn't exactly a low number -- I feel like he has to be a darn good receiving back. We know he is great in space.

ETA: I also wouldn't be shocked if Bigsby does get a large amount of work, and/or win the passing down job. But I'm betting against it.
The problem is Etienne is a bad route runner. I REALLY wish I could remember who it was, but somebody had a series of videos about how almost all of his college receiving production was manufactured, and that just isn't something Doug Pederson really does.

Etienne is great in the open field, no disagreement there, but I think 35 catches is closer to his ceiling than his floor, especially with Ridley on board, Etienne is likely no higher than 5th in the pecking order. Also, it wasn't Bigsby, but Hasty who got the 3rd down work, which was also the case in the playoff game against KC.

ETA: Not hating on Etienne at all, I have him in the RB13-16 range, I just think his ceiling is being grossly overstated, unless he massively improves 2 major parts of his game, until then he's more expensive Kenneth Walker.
Interesting info on the route running/manufactured production thing. We shall see!
 
Are there any rookie RBs that fit the Dameon Pierce/James Robinson mold? Not highly drafted, no stud RB in front of them, potential to be an early season workhorse?

eta: someone you could draft in the middle or late
If NY doesn't sign a FA, and Breece Hall isn't ready to go early, I could see Isreal Abankandi being their top RB. He's a lot more explosive then anyone else they have, though Carter would probably still handle 3rd downs.

Sean Tucker is interesting in TB. Rachaad White is more of a 3rd down RB, and Tucker was a more highly touted prospect who fell due to a heart issue concern.

It would require an injury, but I think Tyjae Spears is a 3-down RB, and just an injury to the highest workload RB in the NFL away from 20 touches weekly.

ETA: None of those guys are the safe-ish bet Pierce was but could potentially be in the Robinson mold.
 
Some rookie observations to add:

Wasn't the best start for DeWayne McBride, he looked pretty sluggish. I'm not a Ty Chandler fan, I think he's just fast, but he certainly looked better. I'm still of the belief that backfield will have a veteran added, whether it be someone like Hunt, or someone lesser like a Henderson.
Take with a grain of salt but I think it is going to be difficult to read much into the Vikes RB situation in a 3 game preseason. I too thought Chandler looked better than McBride, but don't think we really got a sufficient volume to judge McBride on equal footing. No starters played at all for the Vikes, and McBride had just one carry with the top non-starter unit in the first half. He/Abrams shared the 2nd half, which undoubtedly had worse surrounding talent. MN scored 3 points and had just 65 total yards gained in the 2nd half playing Jaren Hall (and his 50.3 rating) at QB - aside from OL and other surrounding teammates who likely won't make the team.
 
I know it was against the 2nd team, but I thought Aidan O'Connell looked very good, and may be just fine starting if/when Jimmy G goes down, at least for Adams/Jacobs drafters.
Came in to post about AO’C. Raiders fans foolishly optimistic again in the preseason :)
 

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