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** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
Thomas The Skank Engine
Footballguy
shadrap
Footballguy
anchored everything with Justy, mendy, Audi(you guys talked me into this one). Mendy got banged from the get go trying to get to the middle from the outside. It happens, but I don't think indicative of this horse. My hats off to Audible-only top 3 horse that was full of mud from head to toe and coming on. Justy was impressive to say the least. Bet wise I lost $200 out of 4 hundo & was damn close. took Magic Moon out 2 hours before the race & put Mendy in. thing is you have to take some out. It's just part of the deal. thanks again. Looking forward towards the Preakness.
Anyone have any idea what Dedfin posted about Pita & some other junk slamming horse racing??????????????? or did I miss his point?
thanks again.
Anyone have any idea what Dedfin posted about Pita & some other junk slamming horse racing??????????????? or did I miss his point?
thanks again.
facook
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
this looks even better for Justy after sobering up 
they clicked off a very hot opening half - and, as much as the weather was here to #### things up, it was still PF/Justy leading the way. Flamey attended as well, but those "muddah" chops didn't factor much, as he faded - now, GM/Bolty decided to hang close, too ... was not expecting GM that close/that early ... but the conditions changed that one's strategy for sure, and i knew Chad was gonna have him cranked with his utmost shot (he was the cog that helped cash my tix, so big thanks out to that #6) ... the expected Noble Indy/Enticed duo got over to factor in the early pace before falling off.
so, as far as the setup was concerned, we pretty much got what we anticipated
back end of the race was certainly more tepid, as per the pace - then Justy made that majestic move on the far turn, and that was really all she wrote ... GM was game enough to give a thrill chasing for a hot two seconds, but Justy was well placed and in no danger ... kudos to Javi, as Audi made a very judicious rail run to virtually dead heat for place (GM got a big schnozz).
was most impressed by Instilled Regard, drafted Audi right up that rail ... and what a difference five weeks makes, eh? this is twice in a row he was fourth behind Justy, but one was a horrific dud (in the S.A. Derby), the other a monster to clunk up the super - that was the bomb, but ya had to stretch down for it - i gave him no shot up in here, cost me on that super spread. hell of a run, though, gotta tip the hat.
Mendy/MM? ok, the former got some rough stuff right out the gate - but so did Instilled Regard (maybe not as much, but, still was jostled) and MM was a correct fade here ... they both were, as they finished neck n' neck - in 19th/20th place. we can blag on about the conditions to death for these two, and maybe Moore did ease Mendy a tad to live for another race, but all the other up top class showed up, except them - Bolty was 12th, but attended long enough before fading, at least he gave it a run ... he's no muddah, folks.
face it, this was Justy's race to lose once that #7 pill was drawn last Tuesday ... he got it done. Smiff/Baffert are about as pinnacle in a sport as we have ... then give them a beast like this, and it makes it all seem so simple. oh, and check Mikey during the gallop out ... nary a trace of mud to be found - AYFKM? looking like he just cruised home on a dry and sunny day at Santa Anita ... incredible
Here It Is
and the finish ...
Justify (7)
Good Magic (6)
Audible (5)
Installed Regard (15)
My Boy Jack (10)
Bravazo (13)
Hofburg (9)
Lone Sailor (8)
Vino Rosso (18)
Solomini (17)
Firenze Fire (1)
Bolt d'Oro (11)
Flameaway (4)
Enticed (12)
Promises Fulfilled (3)
Free Drop Billy (2)
Noble Indy (19)
Combatant (20)
Magnum Moon (16)
Mendelssohn (14)
on to the Preakness ...
they clicked off a very hot opening half - and, as much as the weather was here to #### things up, it was still PF/Justy leading the way. Flamey attended as well, but those "muddah" chops didn't factor much, as he faded - now, GM/Bolty decided to hang close, too ... was not expecting GM that close/that early ... but the conditions changed that one's strategy for sure, and i knew Chad was gonna have him cranked with his utmost shot (he was the cog that helped cash my tix, so big thanks out to that #6) ... the expected Noble Indy/Enticed duo got over to factor in the early pace before falling off.
so, as far as the setup was concerned, we pretty much got what we anticipated
back end of the race was certainly more tepid, as per the pace - then Justy made that majestic move on the far turn, and that was really all she wrote ... GM was game enough to give a thrill chasing for a hot two seconds, but Justy was well placed and in no danger ... kudos to Javi, as Audi made a very judicious rail run to virtually dead heat for place (GM got a big schnozz).
was most impressed by Instilled Regard, drafted Audi right up that rail ... and what a difference five weeks makes, eh? this is twice in a row he was fourth behind Justy, but one was a horrific dud (in the S.A. Derby), the other a monster to clunk up the super - that was the bomb, but ya had to stretch down for it - i gave him no shot up in here, cost me on that super spread. hell of a run, though, gotta tip the hat.
Mendy/MM? ok, the former got some rough stuff right out the gate - but so did Instilled Regard (maybe not as much, but, still was jostled) and MM was a correct fade here ... they both were, as they finished neck n' neck - in 19th/20th place. we can blag on about the conditions to death for these two, and maybe Moore did ease Mendy a tad to live for another race, but all the other up top class showed up, except them - Bolty was 12th, but attended long enough before fading, at least he gave it a run ... he's no muddah, folks.
face it, this was Justy's race to lose once that #7 pill was drawn last Tuesday ... he got it done. Smiff/Baffert are about as pinnacle in a sport as we have ... then give them a beast like this, and it makes it all seem so simple. oh, and check Mikey during the gallop out ... nary a trace of mud to be found - AYFKM? looking like he just cruised home on a dry and sunny day at Santa Anita ... incredible
Here It Is
and the finish ...
Justify (7)
Good Magic (6)
Audible (5)
Installed Regard (15)
My Boy Jack (10)
Bravazo (13)
Hofburg (9)
Lone Sailor (8)
Vino Rosso (18)
Solomini (17)
Firenze Fire (1)
Bolt d'Oro (11)
Flameaway (4)
Enticed (12)
Promises Fulfilled (3)
Free Drop Billy (2)
Noble Indy (19)
Combatant (20)
Magnum Moon (16)
Mendelssohn (14)
on to the Preakness ...
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Time to go back to insta-tossing the foreign horses. If Mendelssohn couldn't do it, I don't know who can.
Even though I still lost money, I'm grateful for those in here that talked me out of completely fading Justify, would have been out about $100 more otherwise.
Now, I just need to find $18 worth of bets to throw down this week to get the $200 match bonus from NYRA Bets so I can reload for the Preakness (and NOW I'm really out of new sign up bonuses.) Justify might be 1/5 there.
Even though I still lost money, I'm grateful for those in here that talked me out of completely fading Justify, would have been out about $100 more otherwise.
Now, I just need to find $18 worth of bets to throw down this week to get the $200 match bonus from NYRA Bets so I can reload for the Preakness (and NOW I'm really out of new sign up bonuses.) Justify might be 1/5 there.
harryhood
Footballguy
JShare87
Footballguy
Johnny Rock
Footballguy
Canterbury Downs’ (Park) finest. Hats off to Mike Smith.
Won plenty back in the day on his rides.
Won plenty back in the day on his rides.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
any word from OBrien? i do really want to see Mendy & Justy at odds again without that clusterhug of a field to contend
hagmania
Footballguy
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
Yup.
Horse racing, generally an unpredictable sport, is becoming like Track and Field where they just know who's the fastest.... unless said horse gets a bad post draw.
why was there some ridiculous 97-1 in there... that's like 16 seeds.. they enter the race with no chance to win.. why bother
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hagmania
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
gotta think they retreat back to the Hinterlands for a freshening ... O'Brien now 1-52 Stateside dirt shipping - maybe down the line
Haskell? Travers? Jim Dandy? won the TB Derby on some very soft pace, then got dusted by Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby, again getting very soft early splits (but nearly everyone came home in :36 & change, while he was well over :37)
was very bummed he scratched for KD, because he was such an easy toss.
but, ok, they scratched and pointed to Preakness ... let's just say that if he's loafing at his usual :24/:48 opening fractions in Bal'more, he'll be close to dead last.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Hindsight is so 20-20. This was hittable. Justify was a freak. Top prep besides SA Derby is FL Derby. Both open length winners. Audible had to be there. GM a champion and rounding back into form. All 3 drew well to save ground. Toss the Euro, Wood winner and those who drew poorly. My Boy Jack was going to close. Instilled Regard was one of 4 really long shots who were regally bred to get 1 1/4.
Shows that monster scores are out there and not illogical. Could easily see the smart cappers on this board put a Justy over 3 horses including Audible and Good Magic in the 2/3 slots and then have the 4th and 5th finishers either in a group or all. The payouts were ridiculous and from now on I’m only chasing monster scores in this race $1 tri paid $140 $1 super paid 19K. Super High 5 paid $183K. Tough to hit those but it made sense.
Had to throw out the right horses (Mendy, Magnum Moon, Bolt etc but even if you had a couple of them with GM and Audible underneath it was OK Those types often run out and don’t fill out 4th/5th.
Look forward to the challenge next year. Best puzzle to try and figure out there is. Props to OTB and Wikked Great thread. Justy 1/2 in Preakness. GM 2nd in a $8 exacta
Shows that monster scores are out there and not illogical. Could easily see the smart cappers on this board put a Justy over 3 horses including Audible and Good Magic in the 2/3 slots and then have the 4th and 5th finishers either in a group or all. The payouts were ridiculous and from now on I’m only chasing monster scores in this race $1 tri paid $140 $1 super paid 19K. Super High 5 paid $183K. Tough to hit those but it made sense.
Had to throw out the right horses (Mendy, Magnum Moon, Bolt etc but even if you had a couple of them with GM and Audible underneath it was OK Those types often run out and don’t fill out 4th/5th.
Look forward to the challenge next year. Best puzzle to try and figure out there is. Props to OTB and Wikked Great thread. Justy 1/2 in Preakness. GM 2nd in a $8 exacta
JaxBill
Footballguy
Preakness should be no problem. But horses will be lying in wait for the longer Belmont. Expecting somebody to hope he chases pace, burns out early and then gets caught on distance.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Why do SoCal horses dominate the Kentucky Derby?
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
So much rain. Paper said it was "the wettest" in the 144 year history. Still a good time with @Guster, @Thorn, and @Disco Stu.
Spent most of the time trying to stay dry in the infield, often under lids of dumpsters. Somehow we sneaked our way in (and eventually got kicked out of) some private Corona two story structure.
By the time the big race rolled around, my DRF was in wet clumps, and I was too drunk to care about what I wanted to bet. I didn't have Justify in the winning spot of my tri and super wheels.
Spent most of the time trying to stay dry in the infield, often under lids of dumpsters. Somehow we sneaked our way in (and eventually got kicked out of) some private Corona two story structure.
By the time the big race rolled around, my DRF was in wet clumps, and I was too drunk to care about what I wanted to bet. I didn't have Justify in the winning spot of my tri and super wheels.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
"He just got knocked over coming out of the gate, and then he got knocked over again going into the first bend, but he'll be fine," said Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Mendelssohn. "He was never used to getting that much kickback. It's a totally different experience, you know, so we'll be fine. We'll take him home and give him a break and come back (for the grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic)."
Bloodhorse.com
facook
Footballguy
Feeling prettaaaay.....prettttttaaaayyyyy......goood about this bet at the post on BOV (I know this makes me a square, cause I have an account there....so what!?):
May 5, 2018
8:18 PM
#1805851739975
Placed byWeb
Single #1805851739975
Horse Racing Futures and Props - Horse Racing Futures - Winner
2018 Preakness Stakes
Justify +150 May 19, 2018 3:00 PM
May 5, 2018
8:18 PM
#1805851739975
Placed byWeb
Single #1805851739975
Horse Racing Futures and Props - Horse Racing Futures - Winner
2018 Preakness Stakes
Justify +150 May 19, 2018 3:00 PM
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
I’ll Have Another. California Chrome. Nyquist. American Pharoah. Justify.
5 of the last 7 Derby winners came from the west coast. WTF?
5 of the last 7 Derby winners came from the west coast. WTF?
Judge Smails
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
great points here as usual
the GM play was the one i was most juiced for, without Justy up in there, Chad has his KD win ... kept looking back to the Juvey and how he handled a top timber field with such fluidity - was my second favorite prep run. then back at his F.o,Y. sees him rounding slowly back from the bench - followed by the Blue Grass tuneup, i thought he looked primed for a monster at KD, and he ran his ### off behind Justy ...
Instilled Regard was a 'capping miscue, didn't really spread the super too much, as per staying economic (Audi key w/GM/Justy/Hof/MBJ/Vino/Bolty) - but even if i decided to spread one other/plunk some more coin down, it wasn't gonna be IR - was so put off by his S.A. Derby - it was a race where he just needed to clunk third behind Justy/Bolt to secure his Derby gate, and he shat it, finishing behind Core Beliefs. his distance breeding was prominent, but, yeah, he was not gonna see my tix - oversight, but one i can live with, seeing as how i was off him five weeks ago ... and if MBJ didn't encounter a wall of cement shoe flesh during the meat of his run, then the super would've been hit as well, albeit not as juicy with the Kent D entrant banged down so much.
lotta "ifs", but the hindsight is real after one like this.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
10/10
this belongs up in a "who's hottest- Derby Drunks" pole .... i'm sure "wettest Derby" could've also referred to the panties hangin' around you lot, as well
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
Justy was moving a bit gingerly during yesterday morning's meet and greet with BB - any inside word on this?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
I've asked but I think it's doubtful I will get anything of value. They almost always use Pletcher as a trainer so BB and his team will be more reticent to share info. Then it'd have to go to their PR person, then to my friend and then me. If I hear anything, I will let you know.otb_lifer said:
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yeah, wasn't really expecting a hand tip from them to be relayed here on a message board ... just wondering if it had even been bandied about in the slightest - good lookin' out
on a somewhat related note, interesting that Pletcher is shipping all four back to Belmont today, with no immediate plans for any ... would love to see Vino/NI in Preakness - would be very live plays under a hopefully healthy Justy -
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
dunno why, but the fetlock (the only soft tissue which makes contact with the surface) rubs down worse on off tracks. 3-4 days tenderness, tops
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
The more I read, the more I think Bravazo may be the only other horse that ran in the Derby to take another crack at Justify in the Preakness. Feels like a ton of new shooters in 2 weeks, then a lot of the Derby horses may come back for the Belmont.yeah, wasn't really expecting a hand tip from them to be relayed here on a message board ... just wondering if it had even been bandied about in the slightest - good lookin' out
on a somewhat related note, interesting that Pletcher is shipping all four back to Belmont today, with no immediate plans for any ... would love to see Vino/NI in Preakness - would be very live plays under a hopefully healthy Justy -
otb_lifer
Footballguy
i can dig most connections duckin' Justy on the short turnaround - especially after that friggin' slopfest ... but we usually see at least three or so migrate from Churchill, regardless of beast awaiting in Bal'more
Justy/Vino exacta, 50x plz.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Usually, and it's still very early, but from what I'm reading, I haven't seen one trainer pointing a horse towards Pimlico except Bravazo thus far.i can dig most connections duckin' Justy on the short turnaround - especially after that friggin' slopfest ... but we usually see at least three or so migrate from Churchill, regardless of beast awaiting in Bal'more
Justy/Vino exacta, 50x plz.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
If Baffert doesn't want any of his studs in there facing Justify and Pletcher doesn't run any of his horses on a 2-week turnaround, that's half the potential field right there.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
even if we were sans BB/Toddfather shipping in anyone else, i hope we see the likes of PF/Enticed/Flamey/Hof/FDB - few burners, coupla closers - nice balance - some of these gotta point to the second leg
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Me too. I don't want 12 new shooters, Bravazo and Justified.even if we were sans BB/Toddfather shipping in anyone else, i hope we see the likes of PF/Enticed/Flamey/Hof/FDB - few burners, coupla closers - nice balance - some of these gotta point to the second leg
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I don't know anything about Diamond King, but I see he won the Tesio, so that's almost a certain entry for the 19th.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
heckmanm
Footballguy
My wife's cousin helped train the Oaks winner. Cousin's husband is an assistant trainer, and I guess the cousin is an exercise rider or something. I don't follow the ponies too much but that was kinda cool.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
>>> PETA Senior Vice President Kathy Guillermo issued the following statement: “PETA is calling on the stewards at Churchill Downs to order an immediate and independent veterinary examination of Justify and to review all his veterinary records and medications for the last year. He appeared to be avoiding putting weight on his left hind leg at a news conference yesterday–a condition dismissed by trainer Bob Baffert as “scratches” brought on by the muddy track at the Kentucky Derby. However, this skin condition typically leads to lameness only when it’s chronic. PETA wants to know: Has Justify been suffering from a chronic ailment that has led to lameness, or is he injured? If he’s injured, he must not be allowed to race in the Preakness–and PETA is not confident that Mr. Baffert will reveal the horse’s true condition.” <<<
wow, this is some touchy #### up in here now ... i kinda agree with them in a sense - if you thought the Barbaro '06 debacle was a blow to a sport that could in no freakin' way afford it (and he survived, albeit for a year), seeing something like Justy pulling up at Pimlico would be devastating - i have long contested and held the belief that this sport effectively died as a major player the afternoon Ruffian went down on the Belmont track in a match race vs. Foolish Pleasure (ironically named, given the circumstance). the game was still huge enough then to drum up a ton of excitement for that kinda sideshow spectacle, and the Filly vs. Colt angle was the perfect cultural fodder for the times ... but it was tragic folly ... seeing that incredible Filly succumb, on National T.V., in an event that captured so many casual fans ... yeah, i see it as the death knell to "The Sport of Kings", and so began the slide to virtual niche obscurity, save for the Triple Crown season (most notably the Derby). it hasn't recovered, and it never will.
truth is, plenty of horses are put down similarly during any year, but nickle claimers at Mountaineer don't grab headlines and capture the sentiments the way top flight mythical horseflesh such as Ruffian/Barbaro, etc. - that's truth, and a very brutal one, at that.
matter of fact, the Barbaro aftermath was so immense that it ushered in the synthetic surface era, as the sport grasped for a viable concession to the pitchforks calling for it to be abolished (feeling was the synthetic surface was easier on their bodies) ... some tracks still have it as their primary, and we saw two preps (the Jack Ruby/El Camino Real) run over said grounds. the propensity for injury, though, cannot be ignored ... these are huge animals, flying around on some spindly sticks, when ya get right down to it ... and, of course, the younger the horse, the more prone.
Eight Belles was such a game second to Big Brown back in '09 KD, and i believe she was put down right on the Churchill track ... reminiscent of Ruffian, and a reminder that we can see this kinda ugliness with any given race ... odd thing is, i hardly remember the outcry being as significant for her - perhaps i'm just compartmentalizing some convenient memory loss on that one because i had to try and explain to a four year old, who was so enamored with the ponies, what had just happened (watched with my daughter at Belmont).
and we had an incident on this Derby trail, as Baffert trained speedster Mourinho was put down after a training incident a couple months ago.
yeah, PETA can be a right ####### P.I.T.A. in most circumstances, but i'm all for protecting this magnificent colt by any means necessary ... to us regular followers/players, we know this is an unfortunate angle to the sport we love so very much - and when we see this kinda pressure on the national stage, it shines a very unflattering light on the sometimes brutal machinations of it all.
i want the best for Justy and the game ... hate to see it come to this, but we all know that left to it's own devices this sport has an uncanny ability to shoot itself right in it's collective hoof.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Ugh. I really hope it is just scratches.
chet
Footballguy
That was my first Derby ('08 actually) and she was put down right after the race. Lots of confusion and sadness as you might expect.
>>> PETA Senior Vice President Kathy Guillermo issued the following statement: “PETA is calling on the stewards at Churchill Downs to order an immediate and independent veterinary examination of Justify and to review all his veterinary records and medications for the last year. He appeared to be avoiding putting weight on his left hind leg at a news conference yesterday–a condition dismissed by trainer Bob Baffert as “scratches” brought on by the muddy track at the Kentucky Derby. However, this skin condition typically leads to lameness only when it’s chronic. PETA wants to know: Has Justify been suffering from a chronic ailment that has led to lameness, or is he injured? If he’s injured, he must not be allowed to race in the Preakness–and PETA is not confident that Mr. Baffert will reveal the horse’s true condition.” <<<
wow, this is some touchy #### up in here now ... i kinda agree with them in a sense - if you thought the Barbaro '06 debacle was a blow to a sport that could in no freakin' way afford it (and he survived, albeit for a year), seeing something like Justy pulling up at Pimlico would be devastating - i have long contested and held the belief that this sport effectively died as a major player the afternoon Ruffian went down on the Belmont track in a match race vs. Foolish Pleasure (ironically named, given the circumstance). the game was still huge enough then to drum up a ton of excitement for that kinda sideshow spectacle, and the Filly vs. Colt angle was the perfect cultural fodder for the times ... but it was tragic folly ... seeing that incredible Filly succumb, on National T.V., in an event that captured so many casual fans ... yeah, i see it as the death knell to "The Sport of Kings", and so began the slide to virtual niche obscurity, save for the Triple Crown season (most notably the Derby). it hasn't recovered, and it never will.
truth is, plenty of horses are put down similarly during any year, but nickle claimers at Mountaineer don't grab headlines and capture the sentiments the way top flight mythical horseflesh such as Ruffian/Barbaro, etc. - that's truth, and a very brutal one, at that.
matter of fact, the Barbaro aftermath was so immense that it ushered in the synthetic surface era, as the sport grasped for a viable concession to the pitchforks calling for it to be abolished (feeling was the synthetic surface was easier on their bodies) ... some tracks still have it as their primary, and we saw two preps (the Jack Ruby/El Camino Real) run over said grounds. the propensity for injury, though, cannot be ignored ... these are huge animals, flying around on some spindly sticks, when ya get right down to it ... and, of course, the younger the horse, the more prone.
Eight Belles was such a game second to Big Brown back in '09 KD, and i believe she was put down right on the Churchill track ... reminiscent of Ruffian, and a reminder that we can see this kinda ugliness with any given race ... odd thing is, i hardly remember the outcry being as significant for her - perhaps i'm just compartmentalizing some convenient memory loss on that one because i had to try and explain to a four year old, who was so enamored with the ponies, what had just happened (watched with my daughter at Belmont).
and we had an incident on this Derby trail, as Baffert trained speedster Mourinho was put down after a training incident a couple months ago.
yeah, PETA can be a right ####### P.I.T.A. in most circumstances, but i'm all for protecting this magnificent colt by any means necessary ... to us regular followers/players, we know this is an unfortunate angle to the sport we love so very much - and when we see this kinda pressure on the national stage, it shines a very unflattering light on the sometimes brutal machinations of it all.
i want the best for Justy and the game ... hate to see it come to this, but we all know that left to it's own devices this sport has an uncanny ability to shoot itself right in it's collective hoof.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
it may actually be something as minor as that, and this could all just be some grandstanding bluster by them, given the bully pulpit of the national attention to the sport atm ... but i'm all for ensuring that this cat is being well maintained and cared for.
correct, MTB was '09 ... but, yeah, she went down immediately on the gallop out - that was tough to watch.
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