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** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)

Frostillicus said:
$30  tho
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Sure, no reason NOT to do it, money is money. I don't see anyone beating Justify unless his heel bruise actually is something (I don't think it is.)  You just have to hope Good Magic is 100%.

It's definitely the most likely outcome and probably the best bet out there. Just saying that it's 6 bets at $2, so you're only getting about even money or maybe 3/2 on your wager if you get 7/5/ALL. That's a pretty paltry return on a trifecta bet. You may want to toss a couple of the other show horses and put more $ in each bet to try to maximize your return. 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
What do you think? Everyone is tossing this horse as not having enough to compete, but something tells me he may figure in the 3/4 spots. 
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I like the ambition the original connections showed in his 2yo season, sending him to the KJC off winning his conditions @ Pa Downs. His prep was solid, figs are ballpark, doesnt appear to need a particular part of the race to do his thang & he's home.

ETA: Got Castellano, too. Which reminds, like the switch to Saez on Bravazo

 
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eoMMan said:
I made a place bet on Quip and a place bet on Good Magic.

Hoping that Justify chokes.
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You don't really need him to choke with these bets. 

ETA: unless they're big bets and you aim to cash both tickets. 

 
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OK, I just don't see any way Justify loses. Spreading a meek $51.

.50 TRI 7 w/ALL/ALL (hedge against Good Magic faltering) 

$1 SPR 7-5-ALL-ALL

Would toss Lone Sailor as closers haven't had any success today and Tenfold just for being a cut below, but it's cheap enough in a 50 cent box just to keep them in there in case something weird happens.

GL all. 

 
I had a whopping 3.20 left in my xpressbet account after the Derby fiasco

7 / 1 / 2-3-5 $1 tri

Looking to triple my war chest in time for the Belmont.

Glllll

 
chet said:
$10 exacta 7/4,6 :shrug:  
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At least you'll win a few bucks if this hits. 

I'm staring down the realistic possibility of hitting the trifecta in both the Derby and Preakness and still losing money on both races. 

 
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Also drinking bloody maries at 6 PM. Come at me, bro. 

I keep trying to get my wife into the race. Getting a lot of "that's nice, sweetheart." 

 
Used a free 10.00 bet on Xpressbet where they refund you if your WIN horse comes in 2nd or 3rd. Used it on Bravazo. The slop and Justify's awesomeness/heel thing are just making me avoid this otherwise.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
OK, I just don't see any way Justify loses. Spreading a meek $51.

.50 TRI 7 w/ALL/ALL (hedge against Good Magic faltering) 

$1 SPR 7-5-ALL-ALL

Would toss Lone Sailor as closers haven't had any success today and Tenfold just for being a cut below, but it's cheap enough in a 50 cent box just to keep them in there in case something weird happens.

GL all. 
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this is pretty much the play - hope ya profit EG.

My imaginary (didn't go to the track) ticket would be 7-5-1 (I'd have bet 7-5-all) and probably the same Super as you.

-QG

 
Is there actually a race?  All I see on NBC is a sea of commercials occasionally interrupted by a minute or two of coverage.

 
Waiting to see what the payout is. If the $1 TRI is less than $102, I will have hit the trifecta in both legs and lost money both times. :lol:

 
Belmont is going to be a good race to make some money.  I don't see this horse winning the Triple Crown.  Fractions were much lighter today, distance was shorter and he was not as sharp as Derby.  Conditions will likely be different than the last two races as well, going to find a horse or two in the Belmont that are big underlays and make some dollars.

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Belmont is going to be a good race to make some money.  I don't see this horse winning the Triple Crown.  Fractions were much lighter today, distance was shorter and he was not as sharp as Derby.  Conditions will likely be different than the last two races as well, going to find a horse or two in the Belmont that are big underlays and make some dollars.
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Totally agree. Curious to see if my boy Audible runs it back at Belmont or if the connections sit him since he'd be a threat to Justify. Chet, we'll be relying on you for news. :lol:

 
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Justy may be a li'l worn down , more likely run down (two mud races tough on the fetlocks), but my quarter mil ahead of the horseplaying game (not to mention having been an owner, breeder & jockey agent) is telling you a mile & a half is easier on a speed horse than a mile & 3/16

 
wikkidpissah said:
Justy may be a li'l worn down , more likely run down (two mud races tough on the fetlocks), but my quarter mil ahead of the horseplaying game (not to mention having been an owner, breeder & jockey agent) is telling you a mile & a half is easier on a speed horse than a mile & 3/16
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So you like my yes Triple Crown future, right?

 
wikkidpissah said:
Justy may be a li'l worn down , more likely run down (two mud races tough on the fetlocks), but my quarter mil ahead of the horseplaying game (not to mention having been an owner, breeder & jockey agent) is telling you a mile & a half is easier on a speed horse than a mile & 3/16
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Good info, thanks. 

 
facook said:
So you like my yes Triple Crown future, right?
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Until American Pharoah won it, i thought the Triple Crown could no longer be won because modern horse training did not prepare a horse for 3 races in 5 weeks. But you got two things working for you - the horse is trained by the last guy who done it and now you got the Curse of Apollo working for you. Since he won his first race, Justify aint done nothing but win horse races. No gearing down for the end of the 2yo season; no getting spoiled for three months then gearing back up to work; no win here, loss there, no being shuffled back, no tough passes of horses might be better'n you. Just getting out it front of horses every few weeks and staying there til you get pulled up & patted on the neck. Habit is like gold for a horse, and no thoroughbred in history has had an easier path to the greatest title in sport than the new Big Red.

 
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So in deep stretch I thought I had it nailed. 

$200 exacta 7-5 and $20 tri 7-5-6 straight. Then they all bunched. Ortiz said he rode a bad race on Good Magic but it doesn’t matter. 1 slow finish doesn’t mean much. 2 is a trend. I’m beginning to think Justify is more precocious than historically great. Was not impressive.  Should have separated from that group muddy track or not. I think it was a bad, bunched race and fresh horses in the Belmont will beat those coming out of the Preakness  I’ll be betting against Justify with both fists. Just need to find the right one  

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Belmont is going to be a good race to make some money.  I don't see this horse winning the Triple Crown.  Fractions were much lighter today, distance was shorter and he was not as sharp as Derby.  Conditions will likely be different than the last two races as well, going to find a horse or two in the Belmont that are big underlays and make some dollars.
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Plus he had to bump Good Magic to win. I cannot believe this was never brought up

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Totally agree. Curious to see if my boy Audible runs it back at Belmont or if the connections sit him since he'd be a threat to Justify. Chet, we'll be relying on you for news. :lol:
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0% chance Audible runs in the Belmont assuming Justify does.  The owners don't want to provide competition against themselves. 

 
chet said:
0% chance Audible runs in the Belmont assuming Justify does.  The owners don't want to provide competition against themselves. 
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Totally understandable, but also kind of a bummer. I wanted to see some of the best come back for the Belmont and I still feel like Audible is the best of this crop not named Justify. About 5 more feet and he would have finished 2nd in the Derby and I think he'd have a real shot in the Belmont. I suppose that's the problem. 

 
Mr.Pack said:
Plus he had to bump Good Magic to win. I cannot believe this was never brought up
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Bumping is as legal & necessary in horse-racing as in basketball, Mr P. It's "taking the path" of another horse that is the foul.

btw, how's your daughter? best of luck to her there -

 
Tin Cup said:
Is there actually a race?  All I see on NBC is a sea of commercials occasionally interrupted by a minute or two of coverage.
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Best thing about horses racing is that there are published times of the actual race(s) going off. Tune in about 5 minutes before that time and you get to miss all the heartwarming stories and ads repeated 20x.

 
My favorite moment of the day was when they followed up coverage of Queen Elizabeth watching the Royal Wedding with a shot of a guy wearing a horse's head dancing in the Preakness infield.

 
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