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** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)

chet said:
Great story, bro.  

Next time you're in a room with Mike Smith, stand on your tippy toes, try to look him in the eye and ask him for some scoop.  Be sure to report back here. :lol:  
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DON'T DO IT GM !  What Chet isn't telling you is that in the horse racing world, "scoop" means "head."

It=info and there's no expiration date by it.

 
chet said:
My friend had a private conversation with Mike Smith after the race and FWIW, Smith said that he didn't push Justify and he had plenty left at the end.
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SO PRIVATE!!!!

Justify is undefeated in his five career races, and the Preakness was the only one he didn’t win by at least 2 ½ lengths as he beat Bravazo by a half-length.

Related: From earnings to odds: Justify's Triple Crown run by the numbers

Baffert said the margin of victory was somewhat misleading.

“(Jockey Mike Smith) said he could have won by more,” Baffert said. “When the horses come to him, he sort of takes off again. … He was blowing pretty good (after the race), but he wasn’t really as tired as we thought he was.”
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Wow, what a scoop, Chet!  So glad you're* connected, man.  What on earth would we do here without your* inside information on horse racing?  Maybe Chet is friends with Bob Baffert?  Nah, if he was, he would have told all of us numerous times in the past.  Plus, it wouldn't be a private chat with Mike Smith if was regurgitated by Baffert to the Courier Journal. 
 

*You're
*Your

 
General Malaise said:
SO PRIVATE!!!!

Wow, what a scoop, Chet!  So glad you're* connected, man.  What on earth would we do here without your* inside information on horse racing?  Maybe Chet is friends with Bob Baffert?  Nah, if he was, he would have told all of us numerous times in the past.  Plus, it wouldn't be a private chat with Mike Smith if was regurgitated by Baffert to the Courier Journal. 
 

*You're
*Your
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I stand corrected.  My info was useless.  And that's why GM has risen to such great heights and is so successful--he's able to figure out what info is valuable.  

Free DRF :lol:  

 
chet said:
I stand corrected.  My info was useless.  And that's why GM has risen to such great heights and is so successful--he's able to figure out what info is valuable.  

Free DRF :lol:  
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All this because I said this conversation wasn't very private if it was posted on a fantasy football message board.  Good grief.  

 
Anyone else now picturing Chet and GM in an elevator?....

What I see is a jealous old [fund manager] who can't stand the fact that his son has become more successful than he has!

What you see is a guy who never measured a man's success by the size of his WALLET!

That's because you never had the GUTS to go out into the world and stake your own claim!

 
Also, a reminder that while this is going on, MikeIke is out there adopting wayward children.  Now, GM has like 19 kids already, so wishing another one on him would be like wishing the Tom Hanks character in Philadelphia somehow caught more AIDS, but Chet, what's your excuse?

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Also, a reminder that while this is going on, MikeIke is out there adopting wayward children.  Now, GM has like 19 kids already, so wishing another one on him would be like wishing the Tom Hanks character in Philadelphia somehow caught more AIDS, but Chet, what's your excuse?
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:shrug:   I have three foster kittens stinking up the guest bathroom.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Anyone else now picturing Chet and GM in an elevator?....

What I see is a jealous old [fund manager] who can't stand the fact that his son has become more successful than he has!

What you see is a guy who never measured a man's success by the size of his WALLET!

That's because you never had the GUTS to go out into the world and stake your own claim!
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:lmao:

 
Just to change the subject, winners of the first 2 legs are 12 out of 35 in the Belmont.

A .343 batting average is nice, but we know this horse ain't seeing anything close to the 2-1 odds he would require based on those historical stats.

 
For a horse that finished 7th in the Derby, Hofburg is starting to look like a real contender. I don't know how they calc their distance ratings at Brisnet, but he gets a 118, +2 over the rest of the contenders.

 
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Justify draws the 1 slot

Code: 
Here's a complete rundown of the 2018 Belmont Stakes post positions and odds:
POST	HORSE			ODDS

1	Justify   			4-5

2	Free Drop Billy		30-1

3	Bravazo				8-1

4 	Hofburg				9-2

5 Restoring Hope 		30-1

6 Gronkowski 			12-1

7  Tenfold				12-1

8	Vino Rosso			8-1

9	Noble Indy			30-1

10 Blended Citizen		15-1
 
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JaxBill said:
Justify draws the 1 slot

Here's a complete rundown of the 2018 Belmont Stakes post positions and odds:
<table>
<tr>POST HORSE ODDS

<tr>1 Justify 4-5

</tr><tr>2 Free Drop Billy 30-1

</tr><tr>3 Bravazo 8-1

</tr><tr>4 Hofburg 9-2

</tr><tr>5 Restoring Hope


30-1

</tr><tr>6


Gronkowski


12-1

</tr><tr>7


Tenfold


12-1

</tr><tr>8


Vino Rosso


8-1

</tr><tr>9


Noble Indy


30-1

</tr><tr>10


Blended Citizen


15-1</tr></table>
Click to expand...

otb_lifer would never have tolerated this formatting. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Noble Indy for anyone wanting to make some coin.
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Curious as to why you think so.  The price is right, but I haven't seen anything out of him in the past month that would indicate he's in the same class as some of the others here.  You think he's bred for the distance?

 
Brief case for/against all 10 horses.  This is just my amateur handicapping and isn't drawn from any reputable source.  It's worth what you paid for it - caveat emptor, pal.

1- Justify - Pros : Most talented horse in the field by far, never been beaten, has the right running style for this race.  Cons : 3rd race in 6 weeks, looked tired towards the end of the Preakness, although Smith said he eased him.  Almost too much, if so.  At 1 1/4 in that race, he probably finishes 3rd.

2 - Free Drop Billy - Pros: From Union Rags, he has a solid distance pedigree.  Reportedly training well.  Cons : Has no speed figures to his credit that can rate with this field.  Deep closer not the running style that wins this race, despite the added distance.  Would need a hot pace to hit the board, which he likely won't get.

3 - Bravazo - Pros : Was closing on Justify in the Preakness and likely would have had him with another furlong.  Pressing style works well in this race.  Cons : Like Justify, this is his 3rd race in 6 weeks.  Can he outrun Justify down the stretch if he's just behind coming out of the far turn? 

4 - Hofburg - Pros : Talented horse that skipped Baltimore and could be sitting on a big performance.  Was passing horses late in the Derby.  From Tapit, whose offspring have won 3 of the last 4 Belmonts.  Cons : Lightly raced, only 1 win on his resume.  Closing style not ideal for this race, will need to run differently than he has.

5 - Restoring Hope - Pros : Appears to be better off of 2 turns than 1, suggesting he may want the distance.  Also from Tapit (see above.)  Cons : 1 win in 5 races, looked awful last out in the Pat Day Mile.  Has finished 3rd and 12th in only two graded stakes races.  Lowest top speed figure in the field (removing Gronk, who has no such data.)

6- Gronkowski - Pros : Has never finished off the board in 6 career races.  Stalking runner whose style should profile well.  Cons : Missed Derby with an infection.  Has never raced outside of the UK and only on synthetic surfaces.  Has never faced anything like the class he'll see here.

7 - Tenfold - Pros : Was closing well in the Preakness.  Pressing style suits the race.  Possible untapped potential.  Curlin and Tapit in his lineage suggests he'll like the distance.  Cons : Top speed figures not super-impressive.  Second race in 3 weeks.  Finished 5th behind similar less than 2 months ago in Arkansas Derby.

8- Vino Rosso - Pros : 3 wins to his credit.  2 100+ speed figures.  Should be fresh after skipping Preakness.  Reportedly has trained well at Belmont.  Good distance pedigree with Curlin as his pappy.  Cons : Closing style not great for the race, also needs a hot pace which he likely won't get.  Non-factor in the Derby.  Very inconsistent, has beaten and been beaten by similar.

9 - Noble Indy - Pros : Talented horse who should go off at a nice price.  Pressing style suits the race.  Reportedly training well at Belmont. 3 wins and a third in 4 races before the Derby. Cons : Abyssmal in Kentucky, finishing 42 back of Justify while posting a 57 SF.  Was it the post or the off track or something else?  With rain possibly in the forecast and only that one slop run to evaluate, rain makes it a tough evaluation.  Uninspiring 3rd in the Risen Star earlier this year and then barely held on over Lone Sailor in the LA Derby - the latter having been a non-factor on the trail.

10 - Blended Citizen - Pros : Experienced horse with 10 lifetime starts and 2 100 SFs.  Consistent horse and has shown the ability to rate in the past, which he'll likely need to do to be a factor.  Last out was a win on this track, running a stalking race.  Cons : Seems to prefer a closing style, which likely won't work.  Unexciting 5th in his only race against similar class (Bluegrass.)  Most past races have been on turf or synth.

 
wikkidpissah said:
didnt work. try this. Not a horse in this field has EVER run a quarter mile under 23 seconds in its life. Tired as he may be, Justy wins this pulling a wagon of kids & i'll give you the field even
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I fixed the original post - sort of.  The direct link won't work, but if you click the link I edited in and scroll down to Noble Indy or Vino Rosso and then click the Ultimate PPS tab, it gives you the horses in the correct post positions and edits out the ones not running.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.htm

 
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BassNBrew said:
Noble Indy for anyone wanting to make some coin.
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The more I study the race, the more intrigued I am.  Of course, if Justify doesn't #### the bed, pretty much everyone is running for second, but Noble Indy is actually intriguing if his price stays anywhere near where it is right now.  Talented horse that was absolute dog #### in the Derby, but he drew a lousy post and may have just laid an egg with that outside slot and the heavy rains.  He could bounce back - at 6-1, not so interesting, but he's at 33-1 right now.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
I never like speed horses on the rail. A bad break and the other speed comes over on him.
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The chalk does has this going for him, not a lot of horses that need the lead were entered.

If he does break well it could just be a matter of handling the track and distance.

Still a bet against for me if only because of the odds being so low.

 
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Leroy Hoard said:
The chalk does has this going for him, not a lot of horses that need the lead were entered.

If he does break well it could just be a matter of handling the track and distance.

Still a bet against for me if only because of the odds being so low.
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Yep.  Tenfold, Noble Indy, and Bravazo are probably the most early speed in the race, but I don't see a huge impediment to Justify getting the lead on the rail as long as he breaks well.  This race is set up beautifully for him to wire the field, it's just a matter of whether or not he's worn out, IMO.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Yep.  Tenfold, Noble Indy, and Bravazo are probably the most early speed in the race, but I don't see a huge impediment to Justify getting the lead on the rail as long as he breaks well.  This race is set up beautifully for him to wire the field, it's just a matter of whether or not he's worn out, IMO.
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Although a good horse can breeze about any workout # you want, that 464 b on the 29th doesnt give the appearance of a tired aniscule

 
wikkidpissah said:
Although a good horse can breeze about any workout # you want, that 464 b on the 29th doesnt give the appearance of a tired aniscule
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I hear ya. I think if it’s a mile to 1 1/8 he wins. Doubtful beyond that the way he’s finished the last 2.  I don’t recall a horse life and death to hang on in the Preakness winning the Belmont. 

 
as i said earlier in this thread - it is decidedly easier for an unchallenged frontrunner to win at a mile and a half than it is at either of the other two classic distances and possibly even in the other mile-ish categories, simply because a good horse can click 24-second quarters all day if he hasnt had to run one in the 22-23 range or pass another animal. i have made ten of thousands of dollars just from this bit of special knowledge (admittedly 3/4 of it from turf races where 12 furlongs is a more common race distance, but much less kindly in general to frontrunning).

 
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I have about £2000 profit betting on justify  and others in previous races through my friend in London. I wanted to put 1/2 on justify to win and the other half on a justify/all exacta but apparently they don’t bet exactas in London. So I have half on Justify to win right now and am thinking about putting the other half there as well. 

Any thoughts?

Good luck all!

 
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