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Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS (3 Viewers)

Rough game for Rob, but just as I don't expect him to get 3 TDs every game down the stretch, I don't expect him to get 37 yards on 14 carries either.  For me his value lies somewhere in between these last two games, and I'm completely fine with that.  He's earned the carries and with those come the opportunity.

 
Rough game for Rob, but just as I don't expect him to get 3 TDs every game down the stretch, I don't expect him to get 37 yards on 14 carries either.  For me his value lies somewhere in between these last two games, and I'm completely fine with that.  He's earned the carries and with those come the opportunity.
Maybe - seems very game script dependent.  He could very easily have more games of 12-15 carries against tough defenses, and/or while the skins are playing catch-up. 

Kelley could do what he wanted against GB because cousins was slinging the ball all over the place against GBs shot to  :censored:  secondary, which opened up everything on the ground against the 3rd string linebacking corps.

but against a decent defense this is probably very much what you can expect from Kelley. A 2-down plodder. 

Tough to trust. 

 
Maybe - seems very game script dependent.  He could very easily have more games of 12-15 carries against tough defenses, and/or while the skins are playing catch-up. 

Kelley could do what he wanted against GB because cousins was slinging the ball all over the place against GBs shot to  :censored:  secondary, which opened up everything on the ground against the 3rd string linebacking corps.

but against a decent defense this is probably very much what you can expect from Kelley. A 2-down plodder. 

Tough to trust. 
The beauty of this silly game is that we will know for sure in time.

 
Opportunity was there, but play calling (wildcat?) and no offensive line push doomed chances.
I also questioned the play call at the time and believe it was Jordan Reed that totally whiffed his blocking assignment.  I'm not shocked by the lack of production on the 14 carries.   Kelley's strength is not speed or incredible change of direction, yet i saw a lot of runs going sideways instead of north/south.  If they had played to his strengths and got a little better line play...and blocking from their TE, the stat line would have benefited.

Every RB in the league can have a bad week...and often times it's not necessarily the RB's fault. O-line play, injuries, play calling and game script all contribute to their potential success, or lack thereof.  Having watched all but the first few minutes of the Dallas/Washington game, I do feel this was the case for Kelley yesterday.  Could he have done more with the opportunity given...possibly, but there wasn't a lot of daylight offered by the Dallas D either.  Frank Gore suffered a similar fate in his match with Pittsburgh. 

Let's also not lose sight of the fact that Washington was able to pass for over 400 yards against this 'for real' defense.  Perhaps some small part of that success can be attributed to Dallas' attention to slow the running game, and on the bright side, he still hasn't fumbled.  :)

 
I also questioned the play call at the time and believe it was Jordan Reed that totally whiffed his blocking assignment.  I'm not shocked by the lack of production on the 14 carries.   Kelley's strength is not speed or incredible change of direction, yet i saw a lot of runs going sideways instead of north/south.  If they had played to his strengths and got a little better line play...and blocking from their TE, the stat line would have benefited.
So you think the key to this game would have been running Kelley up the middle, into the teeth of their run defense? 

:unsure:

not so sure I agree. 

AZ on tap - and unlike Dallas, they defend the pass almost as well as the run (and are even better against the run)....then they get the Eagles who IIRC are right up there. Someone else posted the ROS schedule:

I'm a big fan, but yet to play him. His schedule the rest of the way is absolutely brutal though (He plays the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th toughest teams for giving up RB points). And, four out of five road games for the rest of the fantasy season.

at Cowboys (7th)

at Cardinals (2nd)

at Eagles (5th)

vs Panthers (3rd)

at Bears (4th)

vs Giants (week 17)
Yikes....that's absolutely brutal.

If you Kelley owners didn't sell high on him after the Packers game, it kinda feels like you might the one standing after a rousing game of musical chairs. 

The next 4 games against even better run D than the Cowboys and 3 of the 4 are road games. 

Like I said - hard to trust. Especially with your playoffs on the line. 

Will be interesting to see if Kelley tops 50 rushing yards in any of those games. In PPR leagues I don't think he's start-able unless desperate. 

One man's opinion. Cap tip to @kutta for posting up the schedule. Good call. 

 
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Is that what we are going to do in here? Play good game, good game, excellent game, bad game for the rest of his tenure? Oh the joy.

 
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The games are going to be tough sledding, but Arizona and Philly offenses do not scare me as much as the Dallas Offense did. Game flow will dictate what happens. They were down pretty quick and abandoned the run for 13 the game. They keep it close, he will get chances.

 
Is that what we are going to do in here? Play good game, good game, excellent game, bad game for the rest of his tenure? Oh the joy.
The usual Shark Pool way to play the game is more along the lines of:

good game, why he will be the second coming of Jim Brown, bad game, excuses for why he didn't perform, bad game, wild excuses justifying his eliteness with implausible narratives, good game, wild celebration of belief confirmed, bad game, why he's just a jag, bad game, he sucks! Cut him!

Mix in the occassional dig at whereever Bloom has him ranked, and season with personal flame wars to taste.

 
The usual Shark Pool way to play the game is more along the lines of:

good game, why he will be the second coming of Jim Brown, bad game, excuses for why he didn't perform, bad game, wild excuses justifying his eliteness with implausible narratives, good game, wild celebration of belief confirmed, bad game, why he's just a jag, bad game, he sucks! Cut him!

Mix in the occassional dig at whereever Bloom has him ranked, and season with personal flame wars to taste.
I think its more like this.

good game, damn, why didnt i get him, he cant be real so I will hate, bad game, happy I didnt miss out on a solid back, bad game, i feel good about myself, good game, litter the shark pool with worthless drivel to try to convince people who dont care about your opinion to follow your thinking (they don't), good game, curl up in a ball PRAYING for another bad game so you can feel good about yourself again, average game, hit the boards hard again, excellent game, disappear for a while and go in hiding until the next bad game. You do realize that 99 percent of you in here do this for every player you missed out on, dont own, or are facing for the week. 

 
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The usual Shark Pool way to play the game is more along the lines of:

good game, why he will be the second coming of Jim Brown, bad game, excuses for why he didn't perform, bad game, wild excuses justifying his eliteness with implausible narratives, good game, wild celebration of belief confirmed, bad game, why he's just a jag, bad game, he sucks! Cut him!

Mix in the occassional dig at whereever Bloom has him ranked, and season with personal flame wars to taste.
While a truly hilarious summary, IMO this topic has run well beyond this scope since week 1. 

Seems like most of us who believed he's a JAG were more shocked by his brief run of appearing to not be a JAG.  I went ahead and ate crow for the GB game since - well obviously he blew the  :censored:  up and it's hard to knock the guy for that. But the big picture sure seems like he took what the Packers game him (which was a lot!) and in a very favorable game script. 

Also, it seems like even his supporters are  totally resigned to the fact that he's a JAG. But he's a JAG who had tremendous opportunity (which I happen to agree with). And to Kelley's credit, he made the most of that opportunity. I have nothing negative to say about Kelley for working hard and earning those touches, or for the obvious effort he gave when he got there. Definitely like the kid and he was a nice story. 

But with the remaining schedule being so daunting, which included this week at Dallas, I do think there's value to the discussion beyond hyperbole, since many a FFB owner'a playoff lives are possibly depending on starting Kelley or not.

So while it might sound like folks are just ripping on the guy just because he had a bad game, one could also say it's important/fair to try and identify whether or not the window of opportunity has closed for Kelley's usefulness. 

I'm of the opinion that it'd be suicidal to count on him as anything more than a low end Flex in non-PPR at this point, and I think he's bench-worthy in PPR for the rest of the fantasy season and playoffs with that crazy tough schedule. 

Again, if I'm off-base I'll be the 1st one in here eating crow. 

 
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I thought he was a JAG until I got a good look at him for a couple of games in a row.   He's not a JAG.   The kid can really avoid being tackled and he has good vision.   He's not a stud with elite athleticism to go with it,  but he can definitely be serviceable and hold the job.   I'm still looking to trade him away because I don't like the passing game opportunity,  but he's better than I thought.  

One of the hardest things about fantasy football is admitting you were wrong previously,  but if you can do it it's a huge asset for an fantasy owner to have. 

 
I've also noticed a tendency for the Shark Pool here to be box score watchers who make judgements just on fantasy points scored and quote YPC for individual games with super small sample sizes.   If you watched the game yesterday you would see Kelley turning negative 4 yards into 0 yards pretty routinely.   That doesn't show up as looking good in the box score or on the fantasy scoreboard but it is important in the game and important to evaluating players going forward both for talent and opportunity.  Look at how popular Christine Michael is on these forums.   Good runner but sucks at everything else that doesn't show up in the box score... 

 
I think its more like this.

good game, damn, why didnt i get him, he cant be real so I will hate, bad game, happy I didnt miss out on a solid back, bad game, i feel good about myself, good game, litter the shark pool with worthless drivel to try to convince people who dont care about your opinion to follow your thinking (they don't), good game, curl up in a ball PRAYING for another bad game so you can feel good about yourself again, average game, hit the boards hard again, excellent game, disappear for a while and go in hiding until the next bad game. You do realize that 99 percent of you in here do this for every player you missed out on, dont own, or are facing for the week. 
I don't see this at all. I've been down on him plenty and never once disappeared after he had a good game.

going through this topic I don't see anything resembling this narrative. 

Most are discussing FFB and the prospects of a vey unlikely RB performing.

Speaking only for myself, my self-worth has nothing to do with whether or not I make a good or bad call about an NFL player. I'm reasonably sure that 99% you just called out simply enjoys discussing fantasy football and most of them have the betterment of the community at heart when offering insight/opinion. 

 
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I thought he was a JAG until I got a good look at him for a couple of games in a row.   He's not a JAG.   The kid can really avoid being tackled and he has good vision.   He's not a stud with elite athleticism to go with it,  but he can definitely be serviceable and hold the job.   I'm still looking to trade him away because I don't like the passing game opportunity,  but he's better than I thought.  

One of the hardest things about fantasy football is admitting you were wrong previously,  but if you can do it it's a huge asset for an fantasy owner to have. 
I own Kelley and will be looking to offload him this offseason. I do believe the Washington situation plays a HUGE part in his success. But we have seen what good systems can do for backs. (see Denver). Do I believe he is an elite player? No. Do I believe he is a just a guy? No. I believe he is somewhere in the middle. As sauce pointed out above, the next few weeks will be telling. Sadly, my trade deadline has passed so I'm frozen until the offseason. Hopefully, his value goes up. If he tears it up despite the tough matchups, I might consider keeping him based on situation alone. The Redskins keep defenses honest and sustain drives. That is a recipe for success. 

 
I don't see this at all. I've been down on him plenty and never once disappeared after he had a good game.

going through this topic I don't see anything resembling this ridiculous narrative. 

Most are discussing FFB and the prospects of a vey unlikely RB performing.

but hey, way to make it personal and insult 99% of the forum with a sweeping generalization / personal attack.   :bs:

Speaking only for myself, my self-worth has nothing to do with whether or not I make a good or bad call about an NFL player. I'm reasonably sure that 99% you just called out simply enjoys discussing fantasy football and most of them have the betterment of the community at heart when offering insight/opinion. 

What a negative twisted view of the members here you have. Wow. 
I agree with his post,  we could all use to try to be a little more unbiased.   I do what he said too but I try my best to be aware of it and not do it.   Intellectual honesty helps the board be better.   We are all wrong all the time,  no reason we can't admit it. 

 
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I thought he was a JAG until I got a good look at him for a couple of games in a row.   He's not a JAG.   The kid can really avoid being tackled and he has good vision.   He's not a stud with elite athleticism to go with it,  but he can definitely be serviceable and hold the job.   I'm still looking to trade him away because I don't like the passing game opportunity,  but he's better than I thought.  

One of the hardest things about fantasy football is admitting you were wrong previously,  but if you can do it it's a huge asset for an fantasy owner to have. 
I think you're close - he is a JAG who sometimes has above average vision. I've been impressed by his ability to turn -3 yards into 0 yards.

But I've also seen him miss open gaps, and I've seen him run into the back of his OL, and I've seen him look sluggish off the line. 

You can't selectively cherry pick the good he's done without also seeing the bad. 

I watched every snap of both the Packers game and the Cowboys game. And while I posted plenty about how impressed I was with the Packers game, I believe I fairly called out the context what with all their injuries.  

At this point I'm not convinced that those who were down on Kelley were "wrong" or have anything to "admit". 

JAG + opportunity made him a good play for a while. Now he's got a tough row to hoe - and so the discussion begins again. 

Which is also fair. 

Its not like his one good game proved all of his suporters right and it's not like a bad game against the Cowboys proved all the detractors right. 

Its about what we can take away from all of his performances after they've played their games. Personally I couldn't care less if I'm right or wrong about a player - I care about whether I learn enough about a guy to have him on my radar for next season in redraft leagues. 

The big mistake is projecting motive or emotion on others when they're participating in a fantasy football discussion.  It's like calling someone a "hater" because they're trying to look at the big picture. That just discourages thoughtful analysis.

 
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Agreed,  it shouldn't be insulting.   It's human nature and we are all striving to rise above our biases to make good evaluations. 
If THAT was insulting, please dont set foot in the Eric Ebron thread. That comment was Diet Coke. If it doesn't apply to you, move on. But for some, that DEFINITELY ressonated. 

 
It's all good Sauce. That one wasnt even aimed at you. 
Oh I didn't think it was, I just disagree that 99% of the forum is that emotionally invested in what they post. Most of it's just throwing crap at the wall to see what sticks.  ;)  

All good - appreciate you clarifying. 

 
I think you're close - he is a JAG who sometimes has above average vision. I've been impressed by his ability to turn -3 yards into 0 yards.

But I've also seen him miss open gaps, and I've seen him run into the back of his OL, and I've seen him look sluggish off the line. 

You can't selectively cherry pick the good he's gone without also seeing the bad. 

I watched every snap of both the Packers game and the Cowboys game. And while I posted plenty about how impressed I was with the Packers game, I believe I fairly called out the context what with all their injuries.  

At this point I'm not convinced that those who were down on Kelley were "wrong" or have anything to "admit". 

JAG + opportunity made him a good play for a while. Now he's got a tough row to hoe - and so the discussion begins again. 

Which is also fair. 

Its not like his one good game proved all of his suporters right and it's not like a bad game against the Cowboys proved all the detractors right. 

Its about what we can take away from all of his performances after they've played their games. Personally I couldn't care less if I'm right or wrong about a player - I care about whether I learn enough about a guy to have him on my radar for next season in redraft leagues. 

The big mistake is projecting motive or emotion on others when they're participating in a fantasy football discussion.  It's like calling someone a "hater" because they're trying to look at the big picture. That just discourages thoughtful analysis.
It's all good,  I didn't mean to call anyone out for being wrong if that's how it came across.   Just reminding us, including myself, that fantasy scoring output and stats isn't always the complete picture which we sometimes get caught up in.  

 
These next few weeks will be telling. If he can remain consistent, he may secure the early back role for next season. A full offseason with the 1s plus a half season of starting experience could really help his game. If Gruden likes him, he will stick. 

 
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Look, I'm a Skins homer and love what Kelley is doing. He's not anything special. You take out the 66yd run, and he had 23 carries for 71yds. He's going to continue to lead the backfield the rest of the way unless something happens to him, but he's probably nothing more than a RB2 going forward this season. He's caught 2 passes all season, so I guess he has nowhere to go but up there, but he's not going to be some great pass catching bac
 
Kelly's stats this Sunday:  14 carries, 63 yards, 4.5 ypc, no touchdowns, no receptions.

His YPC of 4.5 continues to be strong but this game really underlines the "game script dependent" nature of Kelly's performance that we've discussed in this thread.  (cue the accusations that I'm a "hater" or "bitter" even though I'm a Redskins fan that bleeds burgandy and gold!).   Bottom line, when the Redskins are behind at all, even by a few points, Gruden loves to sling it.  Then two times they had the ball on the one yesterday -- first OC tries to get "cute" with play calling, calls play action pass, penalty...results in FG.  Second time QB sneak TD.  So to be fair, opportunity for scores was there but again Redskins coaching staff just doesn't have the ballz to just run up the gut first and goal from the 1.  It's a problem and that affects Kelly's FFL stats...


 


 


 


 


 

 
Kelly's stats this Sunday:  14 carries, 63 yards, 4.5 ypc, no touchdowns, no receptions.

His YPC of 4.5 continues to be strong but this game really underlines the "game script dependent" nature of Kelly's performance that we've discussed in this thread.  (cue the accusations that I'm a "hater" or "bitter" even though I'm a Redskins fan that bleeds burgandy and gold!).   Bottom line, when the Redskins are behind at all, even by a few points, Gruden loves to sling it.  Then two times they had the ball on the one yesterday -- first OC tries to get "cute" with play calling, calls play action pass, penalty...results in FG.  Second time QB sneak TD.  So to be fair, opportunity for scores was there but again Redskins coaching staff just doesn't have the ballz to just run up the gut first and goal from the 1.  It's a problem and that affects Kelly's FFL stats...


 


 


 


 


 
In the 4th quarter yesterday Kelly did get a carry where it looked like the ball broke the goal line, but the Skins didn't challenge it (the announcers were saying threy should have.). The next play was the QB sneak for a TD. SO FRUSTRATING!

 
Any chance of Matt Jones getting a second chance in this backfield given Kelly's struggles and the teams losing streak?

 
Any chance of Matt Jones getting a second chance in this backfield given Kelly's struggles and the teams losing streak?
 Pretty sure that train has sailed, but what seems likely is that Kelley may have played himself out of a possible starting gig next season.

I'd look to sell high in dynasty formats (or if not "high" at least "while he's still got value")

i cant imagine that Gruden wants this as his feature back next year. Lots of good RBs come out every year and they're getting cheaper and cheaper in the draft. Kelly seems utterly replaceable. 

Hard nosed kid though - I've grown to admire him over the course of the season.  I still don't think he's very good, but he's a hard worker. 

 
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Any chance of Matt Jones getting a second chance in this backfield given Kelly's struggles and the teams losing streak?
What struggles? His YPC in the games since he took over: 4.1, 4.4, 5.7, 2.6, 4.5 and ZERO fumbles.

He has a great matchup this week too. Should get 20 touches and Trent Williams comes back.

 
I really haven't been following Kelly and understand his YPC is strong.  Team has lost 2 straight and he hasn't accumulated may yards.  Not trying to suggest the team losing is on him, but curious if there is something to suggest Jones would be another shot.

 
I really haven't been following Kelly and understand his YPC is strong.  Team has lost 2 straight and he hasn't accumulated may yards.  Not trying to suggest the team losing is on him, but curious if there is something to suggest Jones would be another shot.
Nothing in the skins losses can be attributed to Kelley. His numbers being down have been driven down by Dallas having a big lead and being in catch up mode and AZ having a good defense and the lead.  He still has a couple of tough match ups on the schedule but barring injury he has secured the job for good over Jones.

 
Nothing in the skins losses can be attributed to Kelley. His numbers being down have been driven down by Dallas having a big lead and being in catch up mode and AZ having a good defense and the lead.  He still has a couple of tough match ups on the schedule but barring injury he has secured the job for good over Jones.
PHI, CAR, CHI dont look like tough matchups to me. He could get 20 carries a game. All those teams are terrible.

 
Nothing in the skins losses can be attributed to Kelley. His numbers being down have been driven down by Dallas having a big lead and being in catch up mode and AZ having a good defense and the lead.  He still has a couple of tough match ups on the schedule but barring injury he has secured the job for good over Jones.
I agree for this year - what do you think about his prospects of entering 2017 as the starting RB?

seems like players this game-script dependent are a liability. You're right - he hasn't done anything to cause his team to lose, but then he hasn't done anything to help them win if they get down a couple scores either. 

He seems replaceable. I dunno - maybe the skins homers can weigh in.  

 
I agree for this year - what do you think about his prospects of entering 2017 as the starting RB?

seems like players this game-script dependent are a liability. You're right - he hasn't done anything to cause his team to lose, but then he hasn't done anything to help them win if they get down a couple scores either. 

He seems replaceable. I dunno - maybe the skins homers can weigh in.  
I see him starting the year as the starter but if he doesn't burnish his receiving chops he may not keep it. Would be nice if he pulled an Ingram and started catching passes like Ingram did last year.

 
Kelley caught the ball pretty well in college.  I am guessing he improves over time.

I don't think he has any long-term star power, but I think he is a keeper for me for next year.  He could easily lose the job or get in a bigger time-share if they acquire somebody in the off-season, but for now he's solid.

 
I don`t know about Kelley.  He has no long term future would be my guess but even now.  He isn`t getting a ton of td opportunties and consistently putting up 60 yards or so.  In ppr that only 4 catches for 40 yards which is pretty much every wr in the league.  I am beginning to think i might start sitting him.

 
These next few weeks will be telling. If he can remain consistent, he may secure the early back role for next season. A full offseason with the 1s plus a half season of starting experience could really help his game. If Gruden likes him, he will stick. 
Keith Marshall could have a role too

 
I am so torn.  He just isn't doing that much and the Skins seem to go away from the run so fast.  Because he doesn't catch passes he concerns me

 
CSN Mid-Atlantic's JP Finlay believes 1,000 yards is "in play" for Rob Kelley in 2017.
Colleague Rich Tandler is not so sure and expects the breakout rookie to face competition in camp. He almost certainly will, but Kelley played well before being slowed by a knee injury late in the season. Unless Washington brings in an early-round back, Kelley should open training camp as the favorite for carries. Kelley gained 601 yards on 151 carries (4 YPC) over his nine starts as a rookie.

 
 
Source: CSN Mid-Atlantic
Feb 18 - 12:58 PM

 

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