Or have annoying dry, cold weather with no snow!!!El Floppo said:need to properly ventilate your eaves.Mr. Ected said:Ice Dam info...PIK95 said:Are these ice dams a problem? I have a huge one on my roof.
that's literally the only thing I remember from grad shool.
Things are back to normal. I'm going back to the office tomorrow.I feel bad for Boston. I give East Coasters a lot of #### for complaining about snow but the recent accumulations are legitimately scary. God speed.
Boston Police Commissioner William Evans said, "I hope it snows every day!" He has done an incredible job, particularly in the last 13 days with crime in our city.WHITE DEATH
All I hear about is how bad the models are but this was an easy call 2 week call.Yeah, I tend to agree about the rest of the winter. Not getting my hopes up. The pattern does show some signs of putting up some nice ridging with potential blocking. The MJO is going to be in 8 and 1 for almost the rest of February, which is a nice sign. But it's hard to believe that the overall pattern of near misses will change with just 3 weeks left. I'm not waving the white flag yet, but at this point, every time I see a model throw up something that looks promising, I kind of roll my eyes. If there's no snow by end of the month, we damn sure better get an early spring. I'm done with this cold, depressing weather.I can't even comprehend that. Driving 2 toyotas, a truck with 206k miles and wife's SUV with 178k, rust will kill em first.Sheik, the models are all over the place but I'm going with the north trend. Going forward I'm not so bullish for our chances for snow because the trough axis from the +PNA will be over us. So it means northern stream is our continued only hope and we've seen how that's worked out.The salt is corrosive as heck. I wash my car several times during the winter...not to keep it clean or even make it look nice, but to get the salt off. It's the one time where the underbody spray is really worth it if it's an upgrade at the wash. I hear you though, it's annoying to pay to wash it off just to get it coated again.Just in time for the snow Sunday. I don't bother washing the salt off until about April. I don't like to have to do things twice.I washed my car yesterday to get the salt off.
It's easy to see what winters do to cars if you have a car that you don't drive in the winter. Changing brakes or doing work under my SUV is a lesson in lots of penetrating spray, impact wrenches, corrosion, grossness, and stuck bolts because of the salt and water and the impact on the car. Changing brakes on the Cayman, which never sees salt or honestly even rain if I can help it is simple and easy. Nothing sticks, nothing is corroded.
One thing I've noticed about the last 5 winters or so is that once a pattern locks in it's game, set, match. In our area in particular. Good or bad.
I know I shouldn't get excited for this, but looking at the long range, it appears that we could be in for a cold March. That will extend winter, if it holds true. And with an ideal MJO phase, I still think we could see a big one.All I hear about is how bad the models are but this was an easy call 2 week call.Yeah, I tend to agree about the rest of the winter. Not getting my hopes up. The pattern does show some signs of putting up some nice ridging with potential blocking. The MJO is going to be in 8 and 1 for almost the rest of February, which is a nice sign. But it's hard to believe that the overall pattern of near misses will change with just 3 weeks left. I'm not waving the white flag yet, but at this point, every time I see a model throw up something that looks promising, I kind of roll my eyes. If there's no snow by end of the month, we damn sure better get an early spring. I'm done with this cold, depressing weather.I can't even comprehend that. Driving 2 toyotas, a truck with 206k miles and wife's SUV with 178k, rust will kill em first.Sheik, the models are all over the place but I'm going with the north trend. Going forward I'm not so bullish for our chances for snow because the trough axis from the +PNA will be over us. So it means northern stream is our continued only hope and we've seen how that's worked out.The salt is corrosive as heck. I wash my car several times during the winter...not to keep it clean or even make it look nice, but to get the salt off. It's the one time where the underbody spray is really worth it if it's an upgrade at the wash. I hear you though, it's annoying to pay to wash it off just to get it coated again.Just in time for the snow Sunday. I don't bother washing the salt off until about April. I don't like to have to do things twice.I washed my car yesterday to get the salt off.
It's easy to see what winters do to cars if you have a car that you don't drive in the winter. Changing brakes or doing work under my SUV is a lesson in lots of penetrating spray, impact wrenches, corrosion, grossness, and stuck bolts because of the salt and water and the impact on the car. Changing brakes on the Cayman, which never sees salt or honestly even rain if I can help it is simple and easy. Nothing sticks, nothing is corroded.
One thing I've noticed about the last 5 winters or so is that once a pattern locks in it's game, set, match. In our area in particular. Good or bad.
Ride the snowiest model and disregard the seasonal trend? Come on bud you know better.I know I shouldn't get excited for this, but looking at the long range, it appears that we could be in for a cold March. That will extend winter, if it holds true. And with an ideal MJO phase, I still think we could see a big one. Next Wednesday (on the models) looks impressive. And I know that's a ways out, but I have to believe in something, I guess. A couple of the mets I know like that storm a lot, too. Ridging, blocking and pulling Gulf moisture... it's the perfect set up for our area. Of course, I'm tempering my excitement for now. The clipper tomorrow (which will give us nothing) and the system on Saturday night (which has the potential to give us a medium sized storm) will play a big part in that Wednesday storm. So at least it's giving me something to track. I keep telling myself, we just need one and I'll be happy. Just one.All I hear about is how bad the models are but this was an easy call 2 week call.Yeah, I tend to agree about the rest of the winter. Not getting my hopes up. The pattern does show some signs of putting up some nice ridging with potential blocking. The MJO is going to be in 8 and 1 for almost the rest of February, which is a nice sign. But it's hard to believe that the overall pattern of near misses will change with just 3 weeks left. I'm not waving the white flag yet, but at this point, every time I see a model throw up something that looks promising, I kind of roll my eyes. If there's no snow by end of the month, we damn sure better get an early spring. I'm done with this cold, depressing weather.I can't even comprehend that. Driving 2 toyotas, a truck with 206k miles and wife's SUV with 178k, rust will kill em first.Sheik, the models are all over the place but I'm going with the north trend. Going forward I'm not so bullish for our chances for snow because the trough axis from the +PNA will be over us. So it means northern stream is our continued only hope and we've seen how that's worked out.One thing I've noticed about the last 5 winters or so is that once a pattern locks in it's game, set, match. In our area in particular. Good or bad.The salt is corrosive as heck. I wash my car several times during the winter...not to keep it clean or even make it look nice, but to get the salt off. It's the one time where the underbody spray is really worth it if it's an upgrade at the wash. I hear you though, it's annoying to pay to wash it off just to get it coated again.Just in time for the snow Sunday. I don't bother washing the salt off until about April. I don't like to have to do things twice.I washed my car yesterday to get the salt off.
It's easy to see what winters do to cars if you have a car that you don't drive in the winter. Changing brakes or doing work under my SUV is a lesson in lots of penetrating spray, impact wrenches, corrosion, grossness, and stuck bolts because of the salt and water and the impact on the car. Changing brakes on the Cayman, which never sees salt or honestly even rain if I can help it is simple and easy. Nothing sticks, nothing is corroded.
I did see that some of the models, have the Saturday storm being a nice storm now. Saw the Canadian snow map had me right around 5 inches. But the snow ratios could be 20:1, so that's not too shabby. Again, I'll believe it when I see it.
Just need one.
Re Wednesday storm, tell your met buds now that with a +NAO, any modeled pseudo blocking(50/50, etc) is highly transient. Southern stream involvement usually pushes baroclinic zone north. I.e exactly what we've seen all winter. Cold then warm up to rain then cold...A snow storm would be a thread the needle type of event for us so the odds are highly stacked against it. Go with the cold rain forecast, they'll say you have no clue, but odds are you'll be right.I said I'm trying to keep hope, damn it.Ride the snowiest model and disregard the seasonal trend? Come on bud you know better.I know I shouldn't get excited for this, but looking at the long range, it appears that we could be in for a cold March. That will extend winter, if it holds true. And with an ideal MJO phase, I still think we could see a big one. Next Wednesday (on the models) looks impressive. And I know that's a ways out, but I have to believe in something, I guess. A couple of the mets I know like that storm a lot, too. Ridging, blocking and pulling Gulf moisture... it's the perfect set up for our area. Of course, I'm tempering my excitement for now. The clipper tomorrow (which will give us nothing) and the system on Saturday night (which has the potential to give us a medium sized storm) will play a big part in that Wednesday storm. So at least it's giving me something to track. I keep telling myself, we just need one and I'll be happy. Just one.All I hear about is how bad the models are but this was an easy call 2 week call.Yeah, I tend to agree about the rest of the winter. Not getting my hopes up. The pattern does show some signs of putting up some nice ridging with potential blocking. The MJO is going to be in 8 and 1 for almost the rest of February, which is a nice sign. But it's hard to believe that the overall pattern of near misses will change with just 3 weeks left. I'm not waving the white flag yet, but at this point, every time I see a model throw up something that looks promising, I kind of roll my eyes. If there's no snow by end of the month, we damn sure better get an early spring. I'm done with this cold, depressing weather.I can't even comprehend that. Driving 2 toyotas, a truck with 206k miles and wife's SUV with 178k, rust will kill em first.Sheik, the models are all over the place but I'm going with the north trend. Going forward I'm not so bullish for our chances for snow because the trough axis from the +PNA will be over us. So it means northern stream is our continued only hope and we've seen how that's worked out.One thing I've noticed about the last 5 winters or so is that once a pattern locks in it's game, set, match. In our area in particular. Good or bad.The salt is corrosive as heck. I wash my car several times during the winter...not to keep it clean or even make it look nice, but to get the salt off. It's the one time where the underbody spray is really worth it if it's an upgrade at the wash. I hear you though, it's annoying to pay to wash it off just to get it coated again.Just in time for the snow Sunday. I don't bother washing the salt off until about April. I don't like to have to do things twice.I washed my car yesterday to get the salt off.
It's easy to see what winters do to cars if you have a car that you don't drive in the winter. Changing brakes or doing work under my SUV is a lesson in lots of penetrating spray, impact wrenches, corrosion, grossness, and stuck bolts because of the salt and water and the impact on the car. Changing brakes on the Cayman, which never sees salt or honestly even rain if I can help it is simple and easy. Nothing sticks, nothing is corroded.
I did see that some of the models, have the Saturday storm being a nice storm now. Saw the Canadian snow map had me right around 5 inches. But the snow ratios could be 20:1, so that's not too shabby. Again, I'll believe it when I see it.
Just need one.Re Wednesday storm, tell your met buds now that with a +NAO, any modeled pseudo blocking(50/50, etc) is highly transient. Southern stream involvement usually pushes baroclinic zone north. I.e exactly what we've seen all winter. Cold then warm up to rain then cold...A snow storm would be a thread the needle type of event for us so the odds are highly stacked against it. Go with the cold rain forecast, they'll say you have no clue, but odds are you'll be right.
My phone says the temp for Sunday will be a high of 19 and a low of 7 (DC Area) - ####### cold!This weekend will be the coldest air of the winter regardless, for the east coast. Bitterly cold.
As predicted the Canadian moved north for the Saturday storm. Regarding the cold, the models have repeatedly over done the cold in the medium range, only to have actual temps verify much milder. Since the troughs aren't as deep, and the northern stream systems ride the base of the trough, it's likely why most storms have trended north on the models in the short term. As a forecaster, once this consistent pattern revealed itself a few months back, this has become an easy season to forecast, one of the easiest I can remember if one isn't merely a model reader.I said I'm trying to keep hope, damn it.Ride the snowiest model and disregard the seasonal trend? Come on bud you know better.I know I shouldn't get excited for this, but looking at the long range, it appears that we could be in for a cold March. That will extend winter, if it holds true. And with an ideal MJO phase, I still think we could see a big one. Next Wednesday (on the models) looks impressive. And I know that's a ways out, but I have to believe in something, I guess. A couple of the mets I know like that storm a lot, too. Ridging, blocking and pulling Gulf moisture... it's the perfect set up for our area. Of course, I'm tempering my excitement for now. The clipper tomorrow (which will give us nothing) and the system on Saturday night (which has the potential to give us a medium sized storm) will play a big part in that Wednesday storm. So at least it's giving me something to track. I keep telling myself, we just need one and I'll be happy. Just one.All I hear about is how bad the models are but this was an easy call 2 week call.Yeah, I tend to agree about the rest of the winter. Not getting my hopes up. The pattern does show some signs of putting up some nice ridging with potential blocking. The MJO is going to be in 8 and 1 for almost the rest of February, which is a nice sign. But it's hard to believe that the overall pattern of near misses will change with just 3 weeks left. I'm not waving the white flag yet, but at this point, every time I see a model throw up something that looks promising, I kind of roll my eyes. If there's no snow by end of the month, we damn sure better get an early spring. I'm done with this cold, depressing weather.I can't even comprehend that. Driving 2 toyotas, a truck with 206k miles and wife's SUV with 178k, rust will kill em first.Sheik, the models are all over the place but I'm going with the north trend. Going forward I'm not so bullish for our chances for snow because the trough axis from the +PNA will be over us. So it means northern stream is our continued only hope and we've seen how that's worked out.One thing I've noticed about the last 5 winters or so is that once a pattern locks in it's game, set, match. In our area in particular. Good or bad.The salt is corrosive as heck. I wash my car several times during the winter...not to keep it clean or even make it look nice, but to get the salt off. It's the one time where the underbody spray is really worth it if it's an upgrade at the wash. I hear you though, it's annoying to pay to wash it off just to get it coated again.Just in time for the snow Sunday. I don't bother washing the salt off until about April. I don't like to have to do things twice.I washed my car yesterday to get the salt off.
It's easy to see what winters do to cars if you have a car that you don't drive in the winter. Changing brakes or doing work under my SUV is a lesson in lots of penetrating spray, impact wrenches, corrosion, grossness, and stuck bolts because of the salt and water and the impact on the car. Changing brakes on the Cayman, which never sees salt or honestly even rain if I can help it is simple and easy. Nothing sticks, nothing is corroded.
I did see that some of the models, have the Saturday storm being a nice storm now. Saw the Canadian snow map had me right around 5 inches. But the snow ratios could be 20:1, so that's not too shabby. Again, I'll believe it when I see it.
Just need one.Re Wednesday storm, tell your met buds now that with a +NAO, any modeled pseudo blocking(50/50, etc) is highly transient. Southern stream involvement usually pushes baroclinic zone north. I.e exactly what we've seen all winter. Cold then warm up to rain then cold...A snow storm would be a thread the needle type of event for us so the odds are highly stacked against it. Go with the cold rain forecast, they'll say you have no clue, but odds are you'll be right.
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It moved slightly north. But there is still enough QPF that snowfall ratios could be as high as 30:1. I'm not saying this will hit us by any means, but all it takes is a glancing blow to deliver us plowable snow.As predicted the Canadian moved north for the Saturday storm.
Regarding the cold, the models have repeatedly over done the cold in the medium range, only to have actual temps verify much milder. Since the troughs aren't as deep, and the northern stream systems ride the base of the trough, it's likely why most storms have trended north on the models in the short term. As a forecaster, once this consistent pattern revealed itself a few months back, this has become an easy season to forecast, one of the easiest I can remember if one isn't merely a model reader.
Oh come on nowsnowfall ratios could be as high as 30:1.As predicted the Canadian moved north for the Saturday storm.
Regarding the cold, the models have repeatedly over done the cold in the medium range, only to have actual temps verify much milder. Since the troughs aren't as deep, and the northern stream systems ride the base of the trough, it's likely why most storms have trended north on the models in the short term. As a forecaster, once this consistent pattern revealed itself a few months back, this has become an easy season to forecast, one of the easiest I can remember if one isn't merely a model reader.

That's not far fetched at all.Oh come on nowsnowfall ratios could be as high as 30:1.As predicted the Canadian moved north for the Saturday storm.
Regarding the cold, the models have repeatedly over done the cold in the medium range, only to have actual temps verify much milder. Since the troughs aren't as deep, and the northern stream systems ride the base of the trough, it's likely why most storms have trended north on the models in the short term. As a forecaster, once this consistent pattern revealed itself a few months back, this has become an easy season to forecast, one of the easiest I can remember if one isn't merely a model reader.![]()
good lordEuro model, at this moment, shows Boston getting close to 2 feet of snow for the Saturday/Sunday storm.![]()
Yeah. And there's still another storm loaded in the chamber for Wednesday, too. The pattern right now is pretty ideal for east coast storms. And it only gets better from here to at least the end of February. Tack on the fact that long range is showing a cold March, and Boston has miles to go before it sleeps.good lordEuro model, at this moment, shows Boston getting close to 2 feet of snow for the Saturday/Sunday storm.![]()
20:1 is hard to do. 30:1 is very rare.That's not far fetched at all.Oh come on nowsnowfall ratios could be as high as 30:1.As predicted the Canadian moved north for the Saturday storm.
Regarding the cold, the models have repeatedly over done the cold in the medium range, only to have actual temps verify much milder. Since the troughs aren't as deep, and the northern stream systems ride the base of the trough, it's likely why most storms have trended north on the models in the short term. As a forecaster, once this consistent pattern revealed itself a few months back, this has become an easy season to forecast, one of the easiest I can remember if one isn't merely a model reader.![]()
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20:1 is not that hard to do. Happens a lot. 30:1 is not very common, but the cold air supports those numbers.20:1 is hard to do. 30:1 is very rare.That's not far fetched at all.Oh come on nowsnowfall ratios could be as high as 30:1.As predicted the Canadian moved north for the Saturday storm.
Regarding the cold, the models have repeatedly over done the cold in the medium range, only to have actual temps verify much milder. Since the troughs aren't as deep, and the northern stream systems ride the base of the trough, it's likely why most storms have trended north on the models in the short term. As a forecaster, once this consistent pattern revealed itself a few months back, this has become an easy season to forecast, one of the easiest I can remember if one isn't merely a model reader.![]()
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:Currently here:
http://i.imgur.com/h1lDsW2.jpg
Returning here tonight:
http://i.imgur.com/bTLoe3N.jpg
The good news is we should be seeing an uptick in temps pretty soon.
Like 2-3 weeks once March hits usually it warms upCurrently here:
http://i.imgur.com/h1lDsW2.jpg
Returning here tonight:
http://i.imgur.com/bTLoe3N.jpg
The good news is we should be seeing an uptick in temps pretty soon.![]()
Umm, OK.
Oh. I got ya. I thought you meant short term. Even then, like I said, the long term models are not looking good for an early spring. March could be average to below average temps for the entire month. :(Like 2-3 weeks once March hits usually it warms upCurrently here:
http://i.imgur.com/h1lDsW2.jpg
Returning here tonight:
http://i.imgur.com/bTLoe3N.jpg
The good news is we should be seeing an uptick in temps pretty soon.![]()
Umm, OK.![]()
Long way out. Need to see what this clipper does tomorrow. But Boston is definitely in the crosshairs as of today.What is up with this Euro model going all blizzard today for Sunday sheik? What's going on?
Not to get overly technical but snow/liquid ratio as it pertains to accumulated snowfall has more to it than just temperatures. The formation of the dendrite, how it falls and compacts, winds, etc have to be factored in. Obviously a perfect dendrite will accumulate faster than the needles.For instance, a report from very close to you from the Jan 26 storm came in with 3.3" snow with a .19" water equiv, a ratio of 17:1 with the majority of the snow in the low to mid 20's and with perfect dendrite growth.20:1 is not that hard to do. Happens a lot. 30:1 is not very common, but the cold air supports those numbers.20:1 is hard to do. 30:1 is very rare.That's not far fetched at all.Oh come on nowsnowfall ratios could be as high as 30:1.As predicted the Canadian moved north for the Saturday storm.
Regarding the cold, the models have repeatedly over done the cold in the medium range, only to have actual temps verify much milder. Since the troughs aren't as deep, and the northern stream systems ride the base of the trough, it's likely why most storms have trended north on the models in the short term. As a forecaster, once this consistent pattern revealed itself a few months back, this has become an easy season to forecast, one of the easiest I can remember if one isn't merely a model reader.![]()
![]()
I'm talking about Sunday afternoon.Long way out. Need to see what this clipper does tomorrow. But Boston is definitely in the crosshairs as of today.What is up with this Euro model going all blizzard today for Sunday sheik? What's going on?
I was too, GB. Chances are there. Euro had I think 2 feet on top of Boston yesterday. But there is still some time for the models to change. It's a good rule of thumb to not really put much faith in the models if there is still another system to come through. So, once this system today moves through, the models can get a better handle on what will happen with Sunday's storm.I'm talking about Sunday afternoon.Long way out. Need to see what this clipper does tomorrow. But Boston is definitely in the crosshairs as of today.What is up with this Euro model going all blizzard today for Sunday sheik? What's going on?
I feel your pain, GB.I've seen two models showing 5-10" of snow hitting southern Ohio next Thursday. I'm excited, but realistically believe we'll only see about 2" when it's all said and done. I was really hoping we would get a lot of snow this winter, and yet we haven't seen anything since November.![]()
So soft serve ice cream with candy bars and brownies etc. mixed in and then whirrled with a blender shouldn't be called a "Blizzard"?I still believe that Saturday's storm has the potential for putting down 3 to 6 inches for my area. I believe that high snow ratios will help accomplish this. This, of course, is just my opinion. But here's a fun factoid concerning what may happen Sunday morning:
As the system comes through, winds will howl. We're talking 40+ mph winds possible with this system. Let's say for the sake of argument that we get about 1 to 2 inches of snow during this time. If winds stay that high, and visibility drops to less than 1/4 of a mile, you would see blizzard warnings come out. How can that be with only an inch of snow? Well, you could actually have blizzard conditions without ANY snow falling. People tend to think that heavy snow is what a blizzard is. But depth of snow has absolutely nothing to do with a blizzard. You can have 60 inches of snow and not have a blizzard. And, like I said, you can have no snow, but instead have blowing snow and have a blizzard. Just one example of a misused weather term that's used way too much.
Moving on from the possible "blizzard" on Sunday, the models are still drooling over the Tuesday/Wednesday storm for next week. Euro put down a wide swath of 1+ feet of snow for a lot of the Northeast. Still very far out on this one, and a lot still has to happen or could go wrong. But this may be the one we've been waiting for if you're anywhere south of Boston. Should be a fun one to track.
I just need one.![]()
Actually, that is by far the best kind of blizzard, hands down.So soft serve ice cream with candy bars and brownies etc. mixed in and then whirrled with a blender shouldn't be called a "Blizzard"?I still believe that Saturday's storm has the potential for putting down 3 to 6 inches for my area. I believe that high snow ratios will help accomplish this. This, of course, is just my opinion. But here's a fun factoid concerning what may happen Sunday morning:
As the system comes through, winds will howl. We're talking 40+ mph winds possible with this system. Let's say for the sake of argument that we get about 1 to 2 inches of snow during this time. If winds stay that high, and visibility drops to less than 1/4 of a mile, you would see blizzard warnings come out. How can that be with only an inch of snow? Well, you could actually have blizzard conditions without ANY snow falling. People tend to think that heavy snow is what a blizzard is. But depth of snow has absolutely nothing to do with a blizzard. You can have 60 inches of snow and not have a blizzard. And, like I said, you can have no snow, but instead have blowing snow and have a blizzard. Just one example of a misused weather term that's used way too much.
Moving on from the possible "blizzard" on Sunday, the models are still drooling over the Tuesday/Wednesday storm for next week. Euro put down a wide swath of 1+ feet of snow for a lot of the Northeast. Still very far out on this one, and a lot still has to happen or could go wrong. But this may be the one we've been waiting for if you're anywhere south of Boston. Should be a fun one to track.
I just need one.![]()
Fingers crossed. That'd be awesome. Off Monday, back in to work on Tuesday, then maybe a few more days working from home. I'm finally slowing down at work, so WFH = setting my laptop next to the sofa while I catch up on some TV.GFS came in as a HUGE hit for Wednesday.
Fingers crossed. That'd be awesome. Off Monday, back in to work on Tuesday, then maybe a few more days working from home. I'm finally slowing down at work, so WFH = setting my laptop next to the sofa while I catch up on some TV.GFS came in as a HUGE hit for Wednesday.
Yup. Me too. I can all my work done in an hour. So I log on an hour early, that way it looks like I worked even harder, then I catch up on anything in the DVR or Netflix. Love WFH days.For whom?GFS came in as a HUGE hit for Wednesday.