Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

[TheIronSheik]

I put the Thursday night/Friday storm for this week at about 40% right now.

The #### is this now? How big you thinking?

Tough answer. This past storm was pretty much a given at 5 days out. This storm is 4 days out and models are not agreeing at all. While this won't be a thread the needle type storm, this will definitely be something more in the middle.

Currently, the Euro is seeing this as something big. Big as in "slightly smaller than this past one." Right now, it is thinking this would be more of a New England storm, but we (the MA) could be included. It shows the southern energy moving ahead of the northern energy, which allows a bomb of a low pressure to ride up the coast. GFS and Canadian do not agree. They have the southern system moving just a little too slow which would send the low out to sea. The key here is that all of the models see a low developing, so the big question is "up the coast" or "out to sea." Right now, the Euro seems to have a better handle on the data. And while people love to say things like "King Euro!", that same king failed miserably with this past storm.

This storm will have a much higher bust ratio, especially for the MA. But that doesn't mean it won't happen. I say 40% because my eyes tell me it's a 50/50 chance, but my gut tells me that I shouldn't put too much faith in one model when the the other models do not agree.

I found this (outdated?) explanation of the different models.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

Can you provide a link to something more up to date or is that info still generally true?

This is still fairly accurate and I see this link passed around a lot by weather geeks and pro mets alike. To go a little deeper, some models handle certain types of storms better, due to their biases. That's why I always say not to just stick with one model. One model might have the better verification record, but if it doesn't perform well in certain types of storms, then it won't perform at its average.

On top of everything, it's important to remember that models are just that: models. If looking at a model told you the weather, there'd be no need for meteorologists. Mets take all of the model data and then use it to determine the most likely outcome. A good example of that is right now. We have one model saying possible storm for NE, and the rest are saying no. But most mets are looking at that data and saying that based off of models, this could move closer to the coast and cause issues up and down the east coast. So it's important not to get too hung up on what a model says or doesn't say.

 

[tom22406]

And an added bonus(if you have older kids or just want to make some extra cash)in having a good snow blower is you can basically set your price and cash in which will pay for the mower in a few days.We had people going around charging anywhere from $150 to $300 to clear out driveways and sidewalks in our subdivision.A really good blower can get one done in under an hour.

 

[Mr. Ected]

My street has not been plowed since teh second wave

Last nite they plowed my street down the middle, away from driveways. I figure that is a first run for Emergency vehicles, so Fire Trucks and Ambulances can get to people if needed.

If it is the only plow my street (within the town boarders) gets, neighbors and I will use that path to march on city hall with torches and burn everything down!!!

 

[The_Man]

Just got back from my first foray into the outside world. It is a sizable disaster still, here in the immediate north Baltimore suburbs. The main, primary commuter type roads have one lane in each direction. The secondary, still big roads that feed into the main roads have about 1.75 lanes clear. You can squeeze by an oncoming car, but it is sketchy.

Big intersections have one lane through, with giant walls at right angles. A right turn on red would be impossible. And if one person wants to turn left, traffic could be backed up behind him for a long time.

Many side streets are untouched. Can't possible see how the public schools are in session this week, since so many kids in our county walk to school. There's a huge mountain of snow between the plowed lane (created by the snow plow clearing the one travel lane) and the untouched sidewalks. Starting to feel pretty good that I'll be off again tomorrow.

 

[comfortably numb]

crime must be at an all time low during these storm?

 

[3C's]

And an added bonus(if you have older kids or just want to make some extra cash)in having a good snow blower is you can basically set your price and cash in which will pay for the mower in a few days.We had people going around charging anywhere from $150 to $300 to clear out driveways and sidewalks in our subdivision.A really good blower can get one done in under an hour.

Most of the people on my road don't even bother. Then there's my neighbor across the street who owns an excavating company. When I was nearing the end he hops on his bobcat and does his whole driveway (longer than mine) in about 10 minutes. <_< Last big snow he saw me doing mine and waved me out of the way to do mine. Watching another neighbors house and he has a backhoe. Was really tempted to borrow it.

 

[3C's]

Found one I'd like. http://richmond.craigslist.org/hvd/5414553669.html

 

[fantasycurse42]

I put the Thursday night/Friday storm for this week at about 40% right now.

You mother####er!

 

[jamny]

My street has not been plowed since teh second wave

Last nite they plowed my street down the middle, away from driveways. I figure that is a first run for Emergency vehicles, so Fire Trucks and Ambulances can get to people if needed.

If it is the only plow my street (within the town boarders) gets, neighbors and I will use that path to march on city hall with torches and burn everything down!!!

Still no plow here. A guy had a heart attack a couple of blocks away and the ambulance had to park around the block and carry the guy in a stretcher to it.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The city is a ####### mess. Streets are cleared, but sidewalks are hell. Every corner is just a slushy mess which will soon turn to lakes.

 

[El Floppo]

I noticed during the heart of the storm Saturday that I wasn't hearing/seeing as many plows as normal. Typically- at least by me- NYC throws everything it has out there even if it's a few inches of snow. I live on a fairly major E/W thoroughfare and I'm used to hearing plows regularly go by scraping asphalt. On Saturday, there wasn't much- and the snow built up quickly. I wonder if making the decision to clamp down on car traffic at 2:30 affected how much they plowed?

I feel for you guys on secondary/tertiary roads out in the boroughs.

and yeah, as FC said... whatever snow happens, the corners are a freaking mess. plus, nobody takes responsibility for shoveling them- so when we get a big build up like this one where the plows have pushed everything to the side, you end up with a single track pushed through the pile from sidewalk to crosswalk at the corners- not even enough room for two-way pedestrian traffic... total mess with people having to go single file... and of course NYCers hate/can't-handle going single file.

 

[comfortably numb]

I put the Thursday night/Friday storm for this week at about 40% right now.

You mother####er!

Better go take up 3 spots!!!

 

[Nick Vermeil]

and yeah, as FC said... whatever snow happens, the corners are a freaking mess. plus, nobody takes responsibility for shoveling them- so when we get a big build up like this one where the plows have pushed everything to the side, you end up with a single track pushed through the pile from sidewalk to crosswalk at the corners- not even enough room for two-way pedestrian traffic... total mess with people having to go single file... and of course NYCers hate/can't-handle going single file.

I had to stop at paragon on the way in to work to buy new boots. My timberland fancy waterproof boots sprung a leak while scaling glaciers on the way to junior's preschool. No strollers today! Paragon had lined up additional seating in the shoe department. Mob scene.

 

[The_Man]

Euro and GFS both out to sea. Maybe Cape Cod gets an inch or two. Don't believe the hype with this storm. 10 days from now, though... Of course, at this time of year there's always a good looking storm 10 days out and they seldom materialize.

 

[PIK95]

I put the Thursday night/Friday storm for this week at about 40% right now.

The #### is this now? How big you thinking?

Tough answer. This past storm was pretty much a given at 5 days out. This storm is 4 days out and models are not agreeing at all. While this won't be a thread the needle type storm, this will definitely be something more in the middle.

Currently, the Euro is seeing this as something big. Big as in "slightly smaller than this past one." Right now, it is thinking this would be more of a New England storm, but we (the MA) could be included. It shows the southern energy moving ahead of the northern energy, which allows a bomb of a low pressure to ride up the coast. GFS and Canadian do not agree. They have the southern system moving just a little too slow which would send the low out to sea. The key here is that all of the models see a low developing, so the big question is "up the coast" or "out to sea." Right now, the Euro seems to have a better handle on the data. And while people love to say things like "King Euro!", that same king failed miserably with this past storm.

This storm will have a much higher bust ratio, especially for the MA. But that doesn't mean it won't happen. I say 40% because my eyes tell me it's a 50/50 chance, but my gut tells me that I shouldn't put too much faith in one model when the the other models do not agree.

Is it rain as usual for southern New England?

 

[pollardsvision]

I thought NYC was used to snow?

Or does the cost of living somehow keep snow out, along with us poors?

With all the whining and unplowed streets, you'd think people were talking about Tuscaloosa.

 

[shadyridr]

I thought NYC was used to snow?

It missed the record accumulation by 0.1" so no, NYC is not used to nearly 30 inches of snow.

 

[Mohawk]

Got at least a foot of snow overnight in south central PA. Still snowing hard. Wind howling! Classic Nor'easter!

Where you be? I used to live in Hanover.

Grew up in East York.

My mailing address was actually Glenville, near the lake I've forgotten the name of

Live in New Freedom area. The lake was Lake Marburg (Codorus State Park)

 

[The_Man]

Got at least a foot of snow overnight in south central PA. Still snowing hard. Wind howling! Classic Nor'easter!

Where you be? I used to live in Hanover.

Grew up in East York.

My mailing address was actually Glenville, near the lake I've forgotten the name of

Live in New Freedom area. The lake was Lake Marburg (Codorus State Park)

Susquehannock HS, stand up!

 

[El Floppo]

I thought NYC was used to snow?

Or does the cost of living somehow keep snow out, along with us poors?

With all the whining and unplowed streets, you'd think people were talking about Tuscaloosa.

pretty much just you poors, thankfully.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I thought NYC was used to snow?

Or does the cost of living somehow keep snow out, along with us poors?

With all the whining and unplowed streets, you'd think people were talking about Tuscaloosa.

It would be like asking California "I thought you guys were used to earthquakes?" after a 9.5 magnitude quake rocked the state.

 

[pollardsvision]

I thought NYC was used to snow?

Or does the cost of living somehow keep snow out, along with us poors?

With all the whining and unplowed streets, you'd think people were talking about Tuscaloosa.

pretty much just you poors, thankfully.

See there, you run all the poors out and now Otis has to shovel his own damn driveway.

 

[Gawain]

So, the LIRR is shutting down again due to a fire at Jamaica.

Hempstead, Far Rockaway, Long Beach and West Hempstead lines never resumed service.

Figure that heads have to roll at this point, don't you? LIRR really dropped the ball.

 

[Billy Bats]

A buddy's car yesterday:

http://postimg.org/image/45hi9gzhz/

 

[Christo]

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Got at least a foot of snow overnight in south central PA. Still snowing hard. Wind howling! Classic Nor'easter!

Where you be? I used to live in Hanover.

Grew up in East York.

My mailing address was actually Glenville, near the lake I've forgotten the name of

Live in New Freedom area. The lake was Lake Marburg (Codorus State Park)

Susquehannock HS, stand up!

Ugh. You guys suck.

 

[Swing 51]

Bobcat just came thru so street is clear. I love the BEEP BEEP BEEP sound when in reverse!

It had to be done though. Now to dig out the driveway after sunrise.

 

[Koya]

So, the LIRR is shutting down again due to a fire at Jamaica.

Hempstead, Far Rockaway, Long Beach and West Hempstead lines never resumed service.

Figure that heads have to roll at this point, don't you? LIRR really dropped the ball.

The heads that have not invested in infrastructure for the past 50 years? Good luck with that.

 

[RUSF18]

So, the LIRR is shutting down again due to a fire at Jamaica.

Hempstead, Far Rockaway, Long Beach and West Hempstead lines never resumed service.

Figure that heads have to roll at this point, don't you? LIRR really dropped the ball.

The heads that have not invested in infrastructure for the past 50 years? Good luck with that.

Probably belongs in the NYC thread but we're so ####ed. I can work from home reasonably easy but if I'm not doing it full time within 5 years or so, I'm getting out of the area.

 

[Rohn Jambo]

I thought NYC was used to snow?

Or does the cost of living somehow keep snow out, along with us poors?

With all the whining and unplowed streets, you'd think people were talking about Tuscaloosa.

It would be like asking California "I thought you guys were used to earthquakes?" after a 9.5 magnitude quake rocked the state.

That was before Climate Change. Now you see a big storm every year.

 

[Rohn Jambo]

People laughed when we shutdown Boston for big snow storms, but you understand now it really saves lives and snow can be removed more quickly to get the city ack to normal.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Storm for this weekend is now down to about 20%. Things were setting up for it to move back west, but I'm not sure there's enough time left for that to happen.

Warm up happens next week for a short duration, then the incredibly perfect pattern for big storms most likely lasts until the final week of March. So we are not out of the woods yet. In fact, I'd say we just entered the woods.

And if I repeat myself at all, I apologize, I feel like I've been writing non stop updates the past 7 days all over the place. And I've been forgetting what I've written and where.

 

[Otis]

Storm for this weekend is now down to about 20%. Things were setting up for it to move back west, but I'm not sure there's enough time left for that to happen.

Warm up happens next week for a short duration, then the incredibly perfect pattern for big storms most likely lasts until the final week of March. So we are not out of the woods yet. In fact, I'd say we just entered the woods.

And if I repeat myself at all, I apologize, I feel like I've been writing non stop updates the past 7 days all over the place. And I've been forgetting what I've written and where.

Keep em coming GB. Very helpful.

 

[Jaysus]

Hey that freezing rain during the morning rush hour was a nice bonus today!!

 

[Insein]

What's with this b******* trend of only plowing one lane on a two lane road. Traffic this morning on a freaking Tuesday is horrendous because there's one lane.

 

[comfortably numb]

What's with this b******* trend of only plowing one lane on a two lane road. Traffic this morning on a freaking Tuesday is horrendous because there's one lane.

Was Kramer on the snow plow?

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Hey that freezing rain during the morning rush hour was a nice bonus today!!

Carpool!

 

[Billy Bats]

What's with this b******* trend of only plowing one lane on a two lane road. Traffic this morning on a freaking Tuesday is horrendous because there's one lane.

Still surprised this is still the case today in my work area too. Yesterday I understand a little, but should've been done by this morning. Tractor trailers trying to navigate an industrial park through one lane is high comedy.

 

[stbugs]

Hey, for all you Philly guys, still safe to come there? Charlotte is completely clear of the ice/tiny bit of snow, but I fly out tomorrow morning to be there until Friday around lunch time. I work in the Malvern area, so just need to get from the airport to their.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Im reading about truly inspiring stories of perseverance following that massive snow storm in New York ....like how people dug themselves out of two feet of snow to get to a brunch date ...im in awe !!!!

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Hey, for all you Philly guys, still safe to come there? Charlotte is completely clear of the ice/tiny bit of snow, but I fly out tomorrow morning to be there until Friday around lunch time. I work in the Malvern area, so just need to get from the airport to their.

Was in Malvern this am, no issues except for some limited parking space. As long as you do not have to go into the inner city you will be fine.

 

[RUSF18]

Im reading about truly inspiring stories of perseverance following that massive snow storm in New York ....like how people dug themselves out of two feet of snow to get to a brunch date ...im in awe !!!!

No one drives to brunch, dummy. They have a lot of alcohol there.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Im reading about truly inspiring stories of perseverance following that massive snow storm in New York ....like how people dug themselves out of two feet of snow to get to a brunch date ...im in awe !!!!

No one drives to brunch, dummy. They have a lot of alcohol there.

who said anything about driving dummy...these are true heroes ...they walked

 

[stbugs]

Hey, for all you Philly guys, still safe to come there? Charlotte is completely clear of the ice/tiny bit of snow, but I fly out tomorrow morning to be there until Friday around lunch time. I work in the Malvern area, so just need to get from the airport to their.

Was in Malvern this am, no issues except for some limited parking space. As long as you do not have to go into the inner city you will be fine.

Cool thanks. The forecast looks fine the rest of the week, so I figured a few days to get rid of most of it wouldn't be an issue since everywhere is go is major highways/streets.

 

[Insein]

Hey, for all you Philly guys, still safe to come there? Charlotte is completely clear of the ice/tiny bit of snow, but I fly out tomorrow morning to be there until Friday around lunch time. I work in the Malvern area, so just need to get from the airport to their.

Malvern is where I work. 29 is a #### show. Hopefully some melting occurs today. I stared at my building for 40 minutes from 29 before being able to park in the lot.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Hey, for all you Philly guys, still safe to come there? Charlotte is completely clear of the ice/tiny bit of snow, but I fly out tomorrow morning to be there until Friday around lunch time. I work in the Malvern area, so just need to get from the airport to their.

Malvern is where I work. 29 is a #### show. Hopefully some melting occurs today. I stared at my building for 40 minutes from 29 before being able to park in the lot.

Woo! Siemens! I mean...Cerner!

 

[3C's]

Looking pretty slim on snow later this week. Maybe next week.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Closed schools here in Loudoun County, VA thru Friday. They've pushed the end of the quarter back, so we may get a day off next week for the 'Teacher Work Day' that was supposed to occur on Friday. A TWD is a day where schoolers are closed to allow our teachers and staff get a day at the end of a quarter to finish up grades and such; very nice since it speeds up report cards coming home!

Depending on what they decide for the TWD, we will have used up 5 or 6 of the 15 days off that are built in to our school calendar in this storm alone!!

 

[TheIronSheik]

No snow this week.

I was able to venture out for the first time today. I love how some roads you'll be driving down and the lane just stops being plowed. No warning. Really made morning rush hour traffic fun. Kept you on your toes.

I think I mentioned it here a while back, but if not here it is (if so, I guess I'll reiterate it):

This coming week is an important week in how winter ends. All of the long range forecasts saw winter starting out warm, then changing around January to a cold, snowy pattern. Then there would be an event (stratospheric warming, which is not important to get into in detail here) that would turn February and March into a possible snow machine for the Northeast. Everything was on pace until a couple of weeks ago when some models started to differ. Instead of said event, some models saw a warm up that would signal an early spring. It was pretty much a coin flip.

Well, now, the models that have called for the early spring are slightly backing off of that. Trending back to the cold, snowy solution. I had said earlier that I was leaning toward the warmer solution, but I think I'm now leaning towards the snowier one. We shall see next week. Guess I'll have to see what the Groundhog says, too. Pretty sure he's going to see his shadow, though.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I would like to these forecasts on youtube with full Sheik regalia.

-QG